Market index 215.1 vs 201.2 priorPurchase index 133.9 vs 132.8 priorRefinance index 661.4 vs 570.7 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.55% vs 6.82% prior The average rate of the most popular US home loan took a plunge last week after the drop in yields on Friday, alongside signals from the Fed to cut rates. The massive plunge […]

I’ve been closely watching bitcoin today as a barometer for sentiment and a pre-cursor to moves in equities, particularly in the Nasdaq. Earlier, we saw a jump in BTC to $57,000 and that optimism is bearing out in stocks. Big winners include some of the biggest losers yesterday, particularly chipmakers. Nvidia is up 6.7% to

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Solomon in an interview:confident the US economy will avoid a recessionFederal Reserve is unlikely to implement an emergency rate cutdoes not anticipate any significant economic developments before Septembercurrent economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve suggest stabilitymay be one or two rate cuts this fall On

Prior €24.9 billion The German trade surplus narrowed in June as exports were marked down by 3.4% on the month. That is more than the 1.5% decline estimated. Meanwhile, imports were seen up 0.3% in June. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -€7.99 billion; revised to -€7.72 billion The French trade deficit narrowed in June as exports were seen up 3.2% on the month while imports were flat. Ever since recovering from the energy price shock amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the trade balance has been trending at more normal levels now. Here is the trend: This

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.5%Italy FTSE MIB +0.7% The mood music is a better one today as markets are looking calmer since yesterday. US indices did see some late selling into the close but that hasn’t put too much of a dent to the overall mood. S&P 500 futures

Fundamental Overview The global market rout on Monday eventually weighed on gold. The reasons for the drop lie in the movement of real yields and liquidations due to the need of cash in extreme scenarios. In the big picture, real yields are falling, which is a good thing for gold, but in extreme cases when

There are now more factors that require being cautious, when thinking of next rate hike timingMarket volatility is very largeWill keep a close eye out on the moves and their impact on the economy, pricesThinks that stock markets will calm down at some point to reflect earnings, Japanese economyThere is no gap in views between

A strong close in US equities today would have signalled the ‘all-clear’ for risk assets. Instead, a 2.5% gain going into the final hour of trading was whittled down to 1% at the close. Closing changes: S&P 500: +1.0%Nasdaq Comp: +1.0%Russell 2000: +1.5%DJIA: +0.8%Toronto TSX Comp: -0.9% (was closed for holiday yesterday) This article was

A lot has been said about the “carry trade” liquidation that helped contribute to a -12.4% decline in the Nikkei 225 on Monday. There are some that think the unwind is just getting started. In this video, I take a look at the weekly chart of four JPY pairs – the USDJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY and

Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida, comments here: BOJ deputy governor Uchida says the Bank’s interest rate can change if needed USD/JPY jumping, Nikkei higher also. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand jobs report for Q2 2024, better than expected pretty much all round. There had been some expectations of an RBNZ rate cut at their meeting next week, August 14. At the margin this takes that expectation down a notch. NZD/USD has been marked immediately higher (I’m posting separately on this). NZD/USD has been

Prior -0.2% The annual growth rate of house prices also increased further to 2.3%, which is the highest since January. The typical UK property is now seen costing £291,268. Halifax notes that they “anticipate house prices to continue a modest upward trend throughout the remainder of this year”. This article was written by Justin Low

Snippet from UBS on the BOJ and yen: USD/JPY not stabilised yetmany Japanese companies expect the average USD/JPY exchange rate to be close to 145but there is scope for significant swings stillsee 140 to 150 as the new trading rangesay that there is reluctance to build substantial positions in yen crosses right nowon the Bank

There is an expectation that the Bank’s damping could increase today – People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating

A brief summary of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand preview from ANZ, Anz expect the RBNZ to hold rates at the August 14 meeting, but signal potential cut later this year ANZ expects RBNZ to keep OCR at 5.50% next weekBank sees potential for RBNZ to signal OCR cut later in 2024Recent data points

It’s going to be another boring day on the data front as the calendar is basically empty. The mood in the markets has been slowly improving as the volatility cooled off and we haven’t got any negative catalyst in the meantime. For now, it might be the classic scenario of “no news is good news”.

US stocks finish 1% higher but sellers took over in the final hourThe Fed put workedUS treasury auctions off $58 billion of 3-year notes at a high yield of 3.810%European equity close: A modest reboundAtlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 tracker 2.9% vs 2.5% priorUS total household debt rose 0.6% in Q2 – NY FedNew Zealand GDT

If market volatility changes our view on prospects for achieving price goal, then that will influence our decision on rate hike pathHard to say how long it will take to gauge impact of market rout on economy, pricesBut BOJ has the advantage of being able to choose when to hike in a moderate rate hike

Despite the ongoing volatility in Japanese financial markets US equity index futures are on approach to their Tuesday high in evening trade. Thesecharts are from our charting app, which is free and can be found at this link This is a CFD tracking NQ: And, ES equivalent: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Inbfo comes via Reuters on the introduction of Goldman Sachs’ new Financial Stress Index (FSI): tightened over the last two days remains at relatively normal levels by historical standardsmost of the tightening has come from surprisingly high levels of expected volatility in the equity and bond markets, Goldman economists said in a client noteconditions in

Ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) big gun Shigeru Ishiba is viewed as a prime potential candidate for Japan’s next prime minister. He has publicly endorsed the Bank of Japan’s policy of gradually raising interest rates: Bank of Japan is on the right policy track to gradually align with a world with positive interest rates”The negative

ING on what to expect: We are looking for high single-digit to low double-digit growth for exports, and for imports to recover slightly back to positive territory after falling into contraction in June. The year-on-year numbers will benefit from a favourable base effect but overall momentum looks to be weakening with new export orders in

The New Zealand dollar benefitted earlier from the better than expected jobs report: New Zealand Q2 unemployment rate 4.6% (vs. 4.7% expected)NZD/USD marked higher after the better than expected jobs report from New Zealand The gain for the NZD has been consolidated. AUD is still eyeing the ‘hawkish’ RBA The response to the RBA meeting

Via oilprice.com: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.7mn barrelsDistillates +0.2 mn bblsGasoline -1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API): It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are

Data via Japan’s Ministry of Finance shows that: Japan currency intervention amounted to 5.92 tln yen on April 293.87 tln yen on May 1April 29 intervention was a single-day record, exceeding the previous record 5.62 tln yen on October 21 2022 They are in the money, finally: I recall those days when every man and

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Westpac Financial Markets Strategy team on the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday. This in brief: The RBA meeting was seen as slightly hawkish, a slower return to the inflation target, as it remains more persistent and ‘approaches’ rather than ‘hits’ the target.OIS markets, which have completely changed their risk profile in the last few weeks,

Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida spoke: BOJ deputy governor Uchida says the Bank’s interest rate can change if neededUSD/JPY surging on Ushida speechMore from BOJ dep Gov Uchida: Appropriate to adjust degree of monetary easing The comments sound like a Bank mulling pulling back on hikes. This is pretty clear, via Bloomberg: And, if

The market is in a calmer mood once again today, looking to keep a steadier tone overall. Traders are taking a breather from the Monday rout although the air of optimism did get a bit thin for a while yesterday. But Wall Street finished stronger, despite some selling late into the close. And that’s providing

Via a Goldman Sachs note on the volatility in equities this week: Could this turn into a bear market? This, in our view remains unlikely. Ultimately most bear markets are a function of recessionary fears as it is economic contractions that lead to profits falling. While our US economists have increased their probability of recession

China trade data for July 2024 Yuan terms: Exports +6.5% y/y prior +10.7% Imports +6.5% y/y prior -0.6% Trade Balance +600bn yuan prior +703.7bn — In terms of US dollars: Trade Balance USD 84.65bn expected 99.0bn, prior 99.05bn Imports +7.2% y/y expected +3.5%, prior -2.3% Exports +7.0 y/y expected +9.7%, prior +8.6% — This article

Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida If economy, prices move in line with projections, it is appropriate to adjust degree of monetary easing degree, speed of fx moves’ impact on prices bigger than in past weak yen and subsequent rise in import costs pose upside risks to inflationShort-term interest rate, at 0.25%, is still very

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi is probably eyeing the impact of Uchida’s loose lips: Didn’t take much for yen to collapse: BOJ official says won’t raise rates if mkt unstableBOJ deputy governor Uchida says the Bank’s interest rate can change if neededUSD/JPY surging on Ushida speechMore from BOJ dep Gov Uchida: Appropriate to adjust degree

Comments from chief investment officer of HSBC’s private bank conveyed via a Reuters report ICYMI: In technology, the froth has been removed from the valuationsWe do believe that AI and technological innovation more broadly will endure, will continue to create productivity gains… We don’t flee from itThere are opportunities in technology, and technology is not

Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida Our interest rate path will obviously change if, as a result of market volatility, our economic forecasts, view on risks and likelihood of achieving our projection changeJapan is not in an environment where we would be behind the curve unless we hike rates at set paceWe won’t hike rates

A dour view from Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn in a note to investors: From a market perspective, we don’t think it matters very much who wins “The economic policies of both parties are remarkably similar. Both favour large deficits despite a strong economy. We believe this supports our ongoing expectations of higher secular inflation in

USD/CAD is down 130 pips from yesterday’s high. More importantly, it’s back below the tops of the long-term range in what could be another rejection of the long-term tops just below 1.40. Zooming out to the weekly chart shows the importance of resistance in the 1.39-1.40 range as that’s blocked the path of this pair

The S&P index is trading near highs up 115 points or 2.23% at 5301.95. The high price reached 5303.17 so far. That gets the price within 5.6 points of its key 100-day moving average. That moving average level comes in at 5308.75. The price last Friday bottomed near that level and bounced into the close.

US equity futures gave back much of their gains ahead of the open as the market is reluctant to shake off the recent wave of angst. Most-recently US 2-year yields dipped to the lows of the day at 3.91%. Earlier they bounced off of 4%. When I look at that short-term chart, I worry there

The Nasdaq index is trading at a new high end in the process is testing that key swing area between 16442 and 16539. The current prices at 16495 up 295 points or 1.82%. Getting above and staying above that area would have traders looking toward its 100 day moving average at 16880.48. For the S&P

Prior was +0.4%Whole milk powder +2.4% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

With the policy move from the Bank of Japan to hike its cash rate helping to push the unwind of the yen carry trade, massively strengthening the JPY, and massively weakening Japanese stocks, this speech should be well worth listening to. Its scheduled for 2130 US Eastern time on Tuesday, which is 0130 GMT on

Fundamental Overview The weak US NFP report last Friday led to a key breakout in the USDJPY pair which eventually triggered another deleveraging in the Yen carry trades. Things got dire yesterday as the Nikkei dropped 12% overnight and we saw a general selloff in global stock markets. This led to risk-off flows and at

High yield 3.810%WI level at the time of the auction 3.812%Tail -0.2bps vs six with average of 0.0 basis pointsBid to cover 2.55X versus six-month average is 2.57XDirects (a measure of domestic demand) 20.3% six-month average is 18.5%Indirects (a measure of international demand) 64.4% six-month average is 65.0%Dealers 15.4% vs six-month average is 16.5% AUCTION

The major US stock indices are moving higher in early US trading with the S&P up near 1%. The NASDAQ and is up around 0.60%. Having said that, there are some key levels in play that would help define either more bullish or more bearish for each of these broad indices after yesterday’s sharp declines

ICYMI – A snippet via the news wires overnight from Capital Economics: Fed needs to do at least a verbal intervention to calm down financial marketsFedspeak might avoid an emergency rate cut”At this point it’s really about restoring market functioning–they could damp things down with a few well placed verbal interventions, it wouldn’t necessarily require

Tech sector shines amidst fluctuating market: A Detailed Examination Today’s stock market paints a striking image of resilience and volatility across different sectors, with the technology sector leading the charge, showcasing notable gains primarily propelled by Nvidia (NVDA), which saw an uptick of 3.22%. This performance starkly contrasts with the consumer electronics giant Apple (AAPL),

The USDCAD has had a volatile up and down day, and the downs have sent the pair into a familiar swing area and also back near the high of an up and down area that defined the trading range from April until July. Today, the first low for the day found support buyers in that

The NZDUSD moved sharply lower yesterday on the back of the meltdown in the Asia-Pacific stock market. The move to the downside saw the price reach a new low for the year and 0.58488, but that was only by three pips before snapping back to the upside. The run higher extended toward its falling 100

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $58 billion of 3-year notes at the top of the hour. The components of the auction compared to their six-month averages, will determine success or failure. Bid to cover six-month average is 2.57XTail six-month average is 0.0 basis pointsDirects (a measure of domestic demand) six-month average is 18.5%Indirects (a

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says wage rises will spread in JapanBank of Japan Governor Ueda to attend parliament for hearing on stock market volatilityAustralian job ads fall in July, the sixth straight m/m dropReminder – 4 huge events coming from the RBA: Policy decision, Bullock, Statement, HunterJapan finance minister Suzuki – Seeing bright aspects

The AUDUSD moved higher after the RBA rate decision where Gov. Bowman said that the board did discuss a rate hike and would be willing to take rates higher if the inflation continues. That fundamental view pushed the AUDUSD above its 200-hour moving average (green line in the chart below) but momentum could not be

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. It is a rebound day. Yields have moved higher. Stocks are higher. The USD is higher. Kickstarting the rebound is the Nikkei rebounded 10.23% its best day since October 2008 which is just a day after plunging 12.4%

The US stocks are opening higher but modestly sold compared to the shortfalls from yesterday which saw the S&P index fall -3.0%. The NASDAQ fell -3.43%. In comparison, the snapshot of the market 10 minutes into the open is showing: Dow Industrial Average average is up 114.95 points or 0.30% at 38818.23.S&P index is up

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.2%German DAX -0.1%Francis CAC -0.4%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.1%Spain’s IBEX -0.5%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.7% The highs of the day in the STOXX 600 were just minutes after the open, it trended lower from there and then bounced late. The overall picture on the chart is a beaten-up market that’s evaluating today.

Leading financial service provider, easyMarkets, has reported robust performance in Q2 2024, driven by high trading volumes in Gold and Nasdaq. Gold prices increased by 20% compared to the same period last year, attracting significant investor interest. Predominant Instruments and Assets During Q2 2024, Nasdaq emerged as the predominant instrument attracting the highest trading volumes

The market was pricing in a good chance of an intermeeting rate cut earlier today but that’s since cooled as markets have somewhat stabilized. We will be closely watching Japanese stocks in the session ahead, particularly banks for signs of contagion. For now, the pricing continues to be aggressive even without any Fed validation that

The decline in total activity eases for another month but it is still at relatively depressed levels. Employment conditions continued to fall as firms remain more pessimistic about the outlook for the sector, even more so than in June. HCOB notes that: “The most positive thing that can be said about these figures is that

Prior month $-75.1 billion revised to $75.0 billionGood trade balance $-96.56 billion versus $-96.84 billion preliminary and $-99.37 billion last monthServices surplus $24.2 billion Details: Exports -1.5% versus -0.5% last monthImports +0.6% versus -0.3% last monthCapital goods imports $80.18 billion versus $77.95 billion last monthTotal exports $265.94 billion versus $262.01 billion last monthTotal imports $339.05

Prior -1.6%; revised to -1.7% Even if you exclude large orders, industrial orders were seen up 3.3% compared to May. That’s a positive development for the manufacturing sector, although it’s not really showing up on the hard data. That considering that the previous months have been relatively poor to be fair. Looking at the details,

ANZ-Indeed survey shows Australian job advertisements fell 3.0% in July m/m prior -2.7% (revised from -2.2%)down 20.8% y/ysixth straight month of month-on-month declines remain 13.3% higher than pre-pandemic levels ANZ comment: “We’ve also seen the share of employers recruiting fall sharply in June to levels last seen during the east coast 2021 lockdowns, while average

After the global selloff in markets since Friday, watchful eyes are turning to the RBA later to see what they have to say about it. But calmer heads so far today will at least help them to sidestep some of that pressure. And they are likely to be able to distract from things and stick

It was a broad sell off across the board in the US stock market. Every Dow stock was lower. The largest decline was Intel with an additional decline of -6.40%. Apple fell -4.85% and Amazon fell -4.07%. The days of Intel in the Dow 30 is likely limited after its fall from grace over the

Prior was -1.93 billionExports $66.65 billion vs $62.45 billion priorImports $66.01 billion vs $64.37 billion prior There is some rare good news here on the Canadian economy as the trade balance improved and volumes of both imports and exports rose, however it was largely due to oil and gold exports. Exports surged 5.5% to $66.65

It’s almost 10 pm in Tel Aviv and eyes are on the Middle East where they will stay in the overnight hours. There have been many leaks suggesting that Iran will attack Israel imminently. Most expect something similar to the last round of drone attacks, which were mostly shot down and none resulted in any

Total household debt hits $17.8 trillionMortgage balances increase $77 billion to $12.52 trillionCredit card balances up $27 billion to $1.14 trillionCredit card balances up 5.8% y/y, nominallyAuto loans up $10 billion to $1.63 trillionTotal borrowing delinquency rate unchanged at 3.2% vs Q1 I don’t see any signs of strain here but this is lagging data.

I would warn that we’re still two months away from reasonable Q3 estimates but this number is certainly a pushback to the recession worries. From the Altanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on August 6, up from 2.5

British Retail Consortium data for July 2024 is mixed: Total retail sales +0.5% y/y -0.2% in Juneaverage rise of 1.4% over the past 12 months Like-for-Like sales -0.3% y/y June was -0.6%Like-for-like sales data strips out the impact of changes in store size. Data also from Barclays, spending on credit and debit cards -0.3% y/y

Here’s a snapshot of things: S&P 500 futures +1.4%Nasdaq futures +1.8%Dow futures +1.0%Russell 2000 futures +1.4%Eurostoxx futures +0.9%German DAX futures +0.7%French CAC 40 futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.8% I would argue that the US ISM services report here played a helping hand in all of this. If anything else, it just served as a reminder

In a strained housing market, prices aren’t the first thing to fall. It starts with swelling inventories and people hoping to find that one motivated buyer. Over time though, a saturated market leads to lower prices. That’s what’s slowly unfolding in Toronto, particularly in the condo and new-construction markets. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

Eurostoxx -0.5%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.7%UK FTSE -0.4%S&P 500 futures +0.3%Nasdaq futures +0.2%Dow futures +0.3% For some context, Nasdaq futures were up roughly 2% in the handover from Asia to Europe. And S&P 500 futures were up around 1.4% then. It’s been a steady decline since as the air of optimism continues to become

The big question circulating in investors’ minds must probably be whether the recent market moves are just a foretaste of a larger downturn or simply a temporary correction. The answer delves into the reasons for the sudden change in market sentiment. Once the latter is understood, it may become clear whether the same scenario will

Bitcoin (BTC) was introduced to the world in 2009 as the first decentralized cryptocurrency. During Bitcoin’s early years, it was mainly adopted by tech enthusiasts as it was not well known or understood by the general public. In 2010, Bitcoin received its first monetary value when someone exchanged 10,000 Bitcoins for two pizzas, a historic

The recent events in the markets reminded me of a great tip from the legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller. For those who don’t know him, he averaged 30.4% return per year for 30 years with not even a single negative year. In an interview he was asked about what made him so successful in the markets

Fed rate cut pricing has slipped from yesterday and Treasury yields are rising but the overall risk trade is improving and that’s leading to US dollar sales. It’s a broad but modest move at the moment, with the US dollar down around 30 pips from an hour ago. Here’s a chart showing the rebound in

The USDCHF moved to and through a swing area yesterday on the sharp run to the downside. The price moved below a swing area between 0.8448 and 0.84596, but could not sustain downside momentum. The rally into today, moved into a swing area targeted between 0.8549 and 0.8579. In the video yesterday, I outlined that

Bitcoin is at the highs of the day, up more than 3% and above $56,000. The highs yesterday early and today peaked at $56,285 and we briefly edged above that. It’s an impressive rebound after falling below $50,000 several times yesterday but it’s still a long ways from the $70,000 level at the end of

After one of its worst days in history, the Nikkei is now on course for the polar opposite. But even with the over 10% gains today, it is still down 11% thus far in August trading. That puts the rebound we’re seeing into perspective and how sentiment is still very much in a fragile spot.

60-year-old Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has been selected by Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris as her running mate, according to CNN. Right now, PredictIt has the presidential race close to a dead heat. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY was around 143.70 as US markets closed. Its been up to above 146.35 and back down now to around 145.30 in the time since. Nikkei not to be outdone, its rocketed higher since the cash open. Take care out there folks, stay nimble and small – liquidity is shot to pieces. This article was

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly: Risks to fed’s mandates getting in more balanceMinds are open to cutting rates in coming meetingsConcern is that we will deteriorate from current place of balance in jobs report; we don’t see that right nowJuly jobs report reflected a lot of temporary layoffs, hurricane effectWill be

Fundamental Overview The weak US NFP report last Friday led to a key breakout in the USDJPY pair which eventually triggered another deleveraging in the Yen carry trades. Things got dire yesterday as the Nikkei dropped 12% overnight and we saw a general selloff in global stock markets. This led to risk-off flows and at

Many forex traders have experienced positives from basic automated robots, but advanced ‘bots take profits to another level. This guide explains powerful algorithms and strategies and how combining top automated solutions boosts success. Automated trading evolves quickly. Staying ahead requires studying advanced integration and regularly updating technology. With discipline and focus on improvement, you gain

In the kickstart video for August 6, I take a look at the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. EURUSD: The EURUSD stalled the run higher yesterday within key swing area above and below the 1.100 natural resistance level. The subsequent move to the downside has now

The RBA policy announcement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time today, August 6, 2024: 0430 GMT, and 0030 US Eastern timeThe Bank is expected to leave its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%. The accompanying statement is expected to stick pretty much to the previous script, that the Bank remains alert to potential upside inflation risks.Released

S&P 500 futures have also trimmed a chunk of its gains, now seen up just 0.6% on the day. Nasdaq futures are only up 0.8% after having been up roughly 2% at the tail end of Asia trading. There’s still plenty of volatility out there, so the swings here are not anything uncommon. But there’s

Prior 4.35%Inflation remains above target and is proving persistentThe outlook remains highly uncertainThe process of returning inflation to target has been slow and bumpyHigh unit labour costs and inflation persistence suggest there are upside risks to pricesWages growth appears to have peaked but is still above the level that can be sustained given trend productivity

Prior 52.2 A jump in new orders contributed to the quicker rise in construction activity in the UK last month. The good news is that employment conditions also ramped up but price pressures were also seen rising, so that is something to take note of. S&P Global says that: “The election-related slowdown in growth seen

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Fundamental Overview The weak US NFP report last Friday led to a key breakout in the USDJPY pair which eventually triggered another deleveraging in the Yen carry trades. Things got dire yesterday as the Nikkei dropped 12% overnight and we saw a general selloff in global stock markets. At one point, the markets saw the

Need to stay on course with inflationThere is still a risk that inflation takes too long to return to targetRecent volatility is mostly markets adjusting to financial news/developmentsInterest rates might need to stay higher for longerBut there is also a risk of the other side of the outcome materialisingThere is a high degree of uncertainty

A note via Macquarie bank analysts pointing to opportunity in markets now. Says Monday’s price action was ‘stampede’, citing a definition including “frightened animals or people run together in a wild and uncontrolled way to escape from something”. Says the ‘something’ was a combination of: perception the Federal Reserve is behind the curve in cutting

USD/JPY has jumped 50+ points. It looks like another day of swings for yen crosses coming up! I stuck a couple of eyeballed leaves on this chart, but I’m sure ForexLive folks out there can do better 0 in the comments please! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.1% The trend in retail sales has been rather bumpy so far this year. Here is the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In summary from MUFG, saying GBP could weaken further. Citing: long positioning is still excessiveglobal risk aversionexpectations of further UK interest rate cuts being further priced in EUR/GBP update, back into the early 2024 range: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japanese Household Spending for June 2024 +1.1% m/m expected +0.2%, prior -0.3% -1.4% y/y expected -0.9%, prior -1.8% Perhaps rising wages may help ion the data for the months ahead: Japan wages data June 2024: Real wages +1.1% y/y for the first rise in 27 months This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

We have a pretty dull day today on the data front. In the European session the only highlight is the release of the Eurozone Retail Sales, which is rarely a market moving event. In the American session, we will just get the Canadian Services PMI. The volatility in the markets calmed down a bit, but

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.5%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% US futures have also lost some luster with S&P 500 futures now up by just 0.9% while Nasdaq futures are up 1.3%. Meanwhile, Dow futures are up 0.6% currently. There’s still an air of relief in markets so far today but

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly none of the labour market indicators she looks at are flashing red at present, but she is monitoring carefully Fed is prepared to act as we get more informationIt’s clear inflation is coming down, labor market is slowingI am more confident we are on a sustainable

The ‘sidecar’ is a rule that lets the Korea Exchange (KRX, the operator of SK’s bourse) halt futures trading of equities during periods of extreme market volatility. Triggered when the benchmark KOSPI futures contract moves more than 5% from the previous close.The KRX limits program trading for five minutes as a ‘circuit breaker’ This article

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to appear in parliament. What’s the bet this won’t end well for him? After severely pressuring him to raise rates will the parliamentarian ***-covering inclduie scapegoating Ueda for the spike down in Japanese stocks? I expect so. Politicians are the same everywhere. The report didn’t give a time for Ueda’s

Fundamental Overview At one point it looked like the worst was behind us as the Nasdaq rallied almost 5% in a single day following the BoJ and FOMC decisions. Unfortunately, the following day we got an ugly US ISM Manufacturing PMI which sent the market into risk-off and defensive positioning into the US NFP report.

Offers no comment on market moves thoughGovernment will work closely with BOJShares view that Japan economy is making a moderate recoveryClosely watching FX moves, discussed it during meetingImportant for FX to move in stable manner, reflecting fundamentals He adds that they held the meeting today as there were big moves in the stock market. That’s

BNZ on their outlook for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand: while we see the first OCR cut in November, we reiterate that we wouldn’t rule out an earlier start to OCR cuts including at the Bank’s August meeting which we see as live. We continue to believe that easier monetary conditions are required. BNZ

The price of crude oil settled down -$0.58 on the day at $72.94. The low for the day reached $71.67. The high reached $74.46. Crude oil futures settle lower for the third consecutive session.Prices settled well above the day’s lows.Impact from the global equities selloff eases, causing a brief midsession move into positive territory. There

Earlier summaries of comments from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly are here: Fed’s Daly says minds are open to cutting rates in coming meetings More from Fed’s Daly – monitoring labour market indicators carefully Daly hitting the social media now: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 2.4% The unadjusted figure remains steady at 2.3% last month, with the number of registered unemployed persons seen increasing to 107,716 people. That is up from the 104,518 persons in June. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Sandilya argues that the pain in markets from yesterday has more room to run, saying “we are not done by any stretch”. Adding that the technical carnage of portfolios means that the sharp moves is not something that will be “easily undone”. As such, he argues that any recovery in carry trades prior to the

The BOJ at work today? Well, definitely someone is in trying to keep the market calm after having seen the Nikkei experience its worst plunge since 1987 yesterday. The index was up roughly 8.8% in the final minute before a sudden jump at the end to close 10.2% higher on the day. A welcome rebound

Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson comments. His “Bottom line”: markets are likely to remain vulnerable in the near term until we get better growth data or more comfort from Fed on policy support, neither of which we think is forthcoming soonsupport can also come from cheap valuations, but we don’t

A dead cat bounce? It’s too early to say anything when we’re just settling down after an extremely volatile period in markets. Bid-ask spreads are still adjusting and sentiment is still very much in a fragile state. But for now at least, there is some minor relief after the turbulence since Friday. Nikkei +9.4%S&P 500

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. For now, trading sentiment will continue to ride on the emotions and so far today it is one mostly of relief. The global market selloff has abated, at least for the time being, but sentiment is still very much fragile. It won’t take

We did consider a rate hike, ready to raise rates if neededWe are vigilant to upside risks to inflationIf inflation does not track the way we are forecasting, we will raise interest ratesHard to draw any red lines on price targets when forecasts are also inherently uncertainNeed to have caution and calm on market volatilityMarket

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi Wage rises will likely spread to part-timers, small businesses toward autumn with strong Shunto results, minimum pay hikes No comment on day-to-day share movesSays important for govt to make a judgement calmly, when asked about volatile Tokyo stocksClosely watching market moves with sense of urgencyWill closely work with BOJ, conduct

As per usual, they will be briefing the press right after the meeting. So, one can look forward to some form of commentary from the bunch. But if anything else, they will try and reiterate the narrative that they are keeping calm and so should markets. The Nikkei is back up over 9% at the

Markets were eerily calm midway through trading today but we’re entering the final hour of equity trading now and there is some fresh pressure. The S&P 500 is down 163 points, or 3% to 5182 after rising as high as 2520 in the midday bounce. I’m keeping an eye on bitcoin as a barometer on

Japan wages data is encouraging Labour Cash Earnings +4.5% y/y expected +2.4%, prior +2.0% Real Cash Earnings +1.1% y/y expected –0.9%, prior –1.3% Spending data less encouraging: Japan data – Household spending for June -1.4% y/y (expected -0.9%) USD/JPY update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ISM services for July 51.4 vs 51.0 expectedUS final July S&P Global services PMI 55.0 vs 56.0 prelimFed’s Goolsbee: Jobs numbers are weaker but it’s not looking yet like a recessionEyes on Iran with a response expected todayWhat’s priced in for the Fed after the latest turmoil Markets: S&P 500 down 3.0%Nasdaq down 3.4%US 10-year

Goldman Sachs on Brent crude oil: “Base case remains that the $75 floor under Brent oil prices will withstand macro fears”But, they add that the uptick in recession risk strengthens their view that the risks to their $75-90 range for Brent skew to the downside, especially for 2025 What uptick in recession risk, you ask.

Update – The index is now up nearly 4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Suzuki painting an encouraging picture: Will continue to monitor, analyse financial market moves and work closely with relevant authoritiesWill do utmost to manage economy and finance while cooperating with BOJ, and make a judgement on the current situation calmlySeeing bright aspects in Japan’s economy on wages, investment front It’s important to realise

The focus of the calendar for the session ahead is the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. The Bank is expected to leave its cash rate unchanged. The accompanying statement is expected to stick pretty much to the previous script, that the Bank remains alert to potential upside inflation risks. The data last week showing a

UK Chancellor Reeves speaking in a TV interview. wants to strengthen and deepen trade ties with the USUK tax burden is too high This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korean Finance minister says will take market stabilising measures in the case of excessive volatility. Yen is driving local FX market swings here in the region … eyes on JPY. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD had a rollercoaster ride today with the pair reaching a new low for the year (but only by 3 or so pips). That low took out lows from April and July. After failing on the brake, the price rocketed higher, erasing all the declines and trading higher on the day. At the high

When I think about modern markets and compare them to the pre-financial crisis era two things stick out: 1) There is far too much leverage This comes up again and again. I thought (hoped?) that people would have learned their lesson in the GFC, covid or the post-covid inflation but it’s getting worse. It’s not

Prior 48.8 Business activity index 54.5 versus 49.6 priorEmployment 51.1 versus 46.1 priorNew orders 52.4 versus 47.3 priorPrices paid 57.0 versus 56.3 priorSupplier deliveries 47.6 versus 52.2 priorInventories 49.8 versus 42.9 priorBacklog of orders 50.6 versus 44.0 priorNew export orders 58.5 versus 51.7 priorImports 53.3 versus 44.0 priorInventory sentiment 63.2 versus 64.1 prior Key components

The EURUSD has moved lower in the US session and had fallen to a key target. That target comes in against the high from a few weeks ago at 1.09477, and a swing high going back to March 21 at 1.0942. That area between 1.0942 to 1.09477 is key today and going forward. IN the

Bitcoin is now up 10% from the intraday low of $49,445 just a few hours ago. On Friday, just after the equity close bitcoin slumped in a sign of what was to come in broader markets. This bounce could be a reversal of that, though it’s still a bruising day. For many months, bitcoin moves

The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The JPYs move comes as traders continue to exit the “carry trade” where they borrowed JPY to buy, buy buy. The Nikkei fell -12.4% the worst day since Black Monday. The level is now -5.99% on the year. The

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -2.2%German DAX -2.0%UK FTSE 100 -2.2%French CAC -1.6%Italy MIB -2.4%Spain IBEX -2.3% At the lows, the STOXX 600 was flat for the year but bounced late. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s pure chaos with Nasdaq futures down roughly 6% currently. Meanwhile, Dow futures are down just a little over 1% on the day. The AI boom has turned into a mini-bust now and the pain looks like it is set to run deeper. The Nasdaq not only broke its 100-day moving average (red line) after

IN the kickstart video from earlier today, when looking at the EURUSD and the USDJPY, I outlined that the 5-minute chart would help discern an extreme. For the EURUSD the price needs to get above its 100 bar moving average and then 200 bar MA to show that the buyers could take back some control.

The USDCHF continued its fall to the downside and in the process broke below support near 0.8549 in 0.8579. The will below their level look toward the next screen you retarget between 0.8448 and 0.8459. That level was also broken on its way to a low of 0.84328. That final break could not be sustained,

Axios with the report Secretary of State Blinken told his counterparts from the G7 countries on Sunday that an attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel could start as early as Monday Axios cites “three sources briefed on the call” More: Blinken said it’s unclear what form the retaliation will take. Blinken said the U.S.

The panic in bond markets has steadily reversed in the past 90 minutes. From being down more than 20 bps, US two-year yields are now down just 2 bps on the day. That’s helped to draw a line under USD/JPY and led to some broader US dollar buying. This article was written by Adam Button

The yield curve inverting has an unblemished track record of predicting a US recession since 1955. However it’s not the curve inverting that signals the recession is here; it’s when the curve un-inverts that it means the recession is here. Think of it like a hurricane forecast. The inversion is a storm forming in the

The AUDUSD fell sharply in the Asian session as the currency responded to the Nikkei falling -12.4% along with declines in commodities which tends to weaken the AUD.. Since then, the price has rotated back higher and has now retraced nearly all of the declines. The run higher has also moved back above a swing

As people are increasingly joining the virtual world, the need for solid and seamless digital financial systems is evident. The course of digital payments in virtual and video games is not just about ease of access—it is more about crafting a virtual space where security and attraction possibilities allow players to be absorbed in their

The major US indices are sharply lower but bouncing higher in early US trading. What levels are key on the correction? and WHY technically. For the NASDAQ index watch16442 – 16538. Before that watch 16330 which is the broken 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the October 2023 low. For the S&P index, it gapped

The members of CNBC Halftime Report @HalftimeReport(Josh Brown, Joe Taranova, Steve Weiss) are blasé about the decline today. “None of my clients are talking about selling””If you are leveraged with the carry trade, there is no reason to sell”. That may all be true. What about technically? Technically, the low price today shortly after the

Prior 49.6Composite PMI 49.1 vs 49.5 prelimPrior 48.8 It’s a slight improvement to June, even with the downwards revision to the July figures. New business continues to fall while business confidence hits the lowest for the year, which is a major setback considering that all of this should have at least been underpinned by the

Here is the whole story in the euro right now: Everyone is short the euro and now everyone is covering in a huge delveraging event. Yes, there’s the story about rate differentials but everything is mechanical at the moment and there is a massive amount of money that’s left Europe for US tech stocks or

Fundamental Overview At one point it looked like the worst was behind us as the S&P 500 rallied almost 3% on a single day following the BoJ and FOMC decisions. Unfortunately, the following day we got an ugly US ISM Manufacturing PMI which sent the market into risk-off and defensive positioning into the US NFP

In the kickstart video for August 5, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD. Focus today is on the sharp falls in stocks, the sharp falls in yields, and declines in other commodities as well. For the USD, the USDJPY is a huge mover to the

Prelim was 56.0Prior was 55.3Composite 54.3 vs 55.0 prior Details: New orders increase for third straight monthEmployment rises for second consecutive monthInput cost inflation accelerates to 4-month highOutput price inflation eases to slowest since January This isn’t recessionary data at all and could help calm the market’s nerves. The ISM services number is due at

It’s all because of this: US July non-farm payrolls +114K vs +175K expected Or at least that is what the narrative is running with. Bloomberg highlighted the Sahm rule after the Fed last week and it was again a focus point after the spike in the unemployment rate on Friday. Alongside the softer non-farm payrolls

The NASDAQ index is off its lows and is moved up toward what should be topside resistance. Their resistance comes between the broken 38.2% retracement at 16330.47, and the high of a swing area up to 16538. The high praise has reached 16368.32 just above the 38.2% retracement but below the height of the swing

The market mood continues to improve after an early washout. US traders have steadied the market after the worst day in Japanese stock market history. The market is trying to make sense of an unwind of the carry trade and rapid, broad deleveraging into an uncertain economy. Helping the situation today was a pair of

White Houses posts US President Biden’s schedule for money. Notably: @ 2:15pm US Eastern time there is a Situation Room meeting with his national security team to discuss developments in the Middle East This comes as: Sec State Blinken said on Sunday that Iran & Hezbollah attack on Israel could start Monday This article was

Judo Bank S&P Global PMIs: Services 50.4Composite 49.9 The flash readings for this are here: Australian flash PMI (July): Manufacturing 47.4 (prior 47.2) Services 50.8 (prior 51.2) Last week we got the final manufacturing PMI, which slightly improved from June but was still firmly in contraction: Australian July Manufacturing PMI (final) 47.5 (prior 47.2) Australia

Prior 52.8Composite PMI 50.2 vs 50.1 prelimPrior 50.9 Even with France underpinning growth amid the Olympics, the euro area economy is seen grinding to a halt in July. The manufacturing recession continues to be the main drag but the services sector is also starting to slow down as well. And that will be a worry

I posted earlier on the comments from the rule’s founder that “not concerned that, at this moment, we are in a recession”: Sahm Rule founder says the US isn’t in recession right now, but risks are rising Not everyone agrees, this from noted economist Rosenberg back on Friday: Rosenberg added further: Pundits claim that there

Australia Melbourne Institute Inflation for July 2024 0.4% m/m prior 0.3% 2.8% y/y prior 3.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

If I did call for an emergency central bank rate cut its not because I think stocks should always go up (even though they do, eventually, by design … I’ll post on survivorship bias some other time) but because this plunge is a clear tightening in financial conditions at a time when rate cuts are

We must be a little careful over-concluding about the jobs report So far, his comments are focused on economic data, not the turmoil in markets. The Fed does need to be forward-looking in setting policyIf you look at domestic purchases, the GDP was relatively stronger than we expectedWe’re going to get a lot of information

The VIX has more than doubled in value today, rising to hit the 50.00 mark now. That’s the highest level since the pandemic and this is the biggest daily jump since February 2018, when there was the whole fiasco involving the XIV and a broader market selloff amid a rout in the bond market at

It’s still a bloodbath in markets but it’s not the kind of reckoning we’re seeing in Japan. A few hours ago, it was looking bleak but some strong hands have waded in. The first hint might have been the bounce in the Australian dollar. That’s been followed by a bounce in Treasury yields, oil and

The Australian dollar is showing some life as it trims today’s decline to 38 pips and more than 100 pips from the lows. That’s a sign that some strong hands are wading into the morass. At this point, it’s all psychological. The market is going to have to wade through some massive option unwinds, fear

He tries offering the same rhetoric by saying that it would be “desirable” for currencies to move stably and reflecting economic fundamentals. If the move was on the other side of the equation, we would’ve seen them coming up with comments like these every few hours. Instead, they’ve not said much of anything of the

The major US stock indices are sharply lower at the open with the Nasdaq leading the way lower in volatile trading. I will put a snap shot but understand it is just a snap shot. Markets are moving fast. 3 minutes into the open: Dow -1.194 points or -2.91% at 38582.77S&P -215.21 points or -4.03%

Crypto update – BTC hovering just over US$53K, ETH is just above US$2280South Korea exchange triggered its ‘sidecar’ on Kospi futuresJapan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi closely watching market moves with sense of urgencyBiden to convene National Security Council on Monday to discuss rising Mid East tensionsChina Caixin Services PMI for July 52.1 (prior 51.2)Bill Ackman

Today’s Market Overview The US stock market experienced a notable shake-up today, characterized by sharp declines in several key sectors, particularly technology. Let’s delve into the implications of today’s trading data, extracted from the latest stock market heatmap, and explore strategic responses for savvy investors and traders. 💻 Technology Sector Overview It’s a sea of

The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are the big gainers as commodity currencies are slumping hard now ahead of European morning trade. AUD/USD just briefly hit its lowest for the year, touching 0.6348 and threatening a sustained drop below its April lows now: Meanwhile, USD/JPY has also plunged further to 141.75 and is down

A light week lies ahead, as is usually the case following the NFP report. On Monday, the U.S. will release the final services PMI and the ISM services PMI. Tuesday’s focus will shift to Japan, where we’ll get data on average cash earnings y/y and household spending y/y. Additionally, in Australia the RBA will announce

Last week we had the manufacturing PMI from Japan: Japan July Manufacturing PMI (final): 49.1 (prior 50.0) Now the services and composite PMIs: Services 53.7 prior 49.4 Composite 52.5 prior 49.7 The preliminary for all three is here: Japan flash PMIs (July): Manufacturing 49.2 (prior 50.0) Services 53.9 (prior 49.4) – The latest Jibun Bank

The market is pricing in a 100% chance of a 50 basis point Fed rate cut in September with another 50 bps in November and a decent chance of 50 bps more in December. The market wants a rescue but I don’t see how Goolsbee could be the messenger. In all likelihood, he will say

The week has kicked off with sharp moves lower for US equity indexes in Sunday evening trade. BTC is under US$58K USD/JPY has been hit hard below 146.00, its lowest since January this year: 145.30 lowscirca 145.90 now Tensions in the Middle East continue to rise, contributing to the moves. USD/JPY update: This article was

Diving is on the Olympic scheduled today and it’s also on the market schedule. The gold medal so far goes to the 12% decline in Japanese stocks and let’s hope it stays that way, though Nasdaq futures are down more than 5%. On country that won’t be competing is Canada, with markets there closed today.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 125 bps (96% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 75 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 53 bps (57% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 80 bps (77% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA:

Eurostoxx -2.8%Germany DAX -2.2%France CAC 40 -2.0%UK FTSE -1.9%Spain IBEX -2.5%Italy FTSE MIB -4.1% It’s a rough one out there with banking stocks also feeling the pinch across the region. That comes as yields are tumbling amid a flight to safety in broader markets. Looking to US futures, S&P 500 futures are down 2.8% while

Headlines: US futures pinned lower ahead of North America tradingFrom soft landing to crash landingVolatility is back with a bangJapan’s Nikkei closes down by a whopping 12% to its lowest since November last yearWeekly update on interest rates expectationsA reminder of the one thing that traders have been getting wrong since last yearEurozone August Sentix

Here’s a snapshot of things: S&P 500 futures -3.0%Nasdaq futures -4.6%Dow futures -2.1%Russell 2000 futures -5.3% At one point, Nasdaq futures were down over 6% so the rout in tech shares is at least not getting much worse for now. It’s a full-fledged flight to safety mode with traders chasing the usual safe havens. Bonds

Gold held up through the Asian session and into Europe but it’s cracked now, joining in the market puke. It’s now down $76 to $2366, or 3%. Silver is down 7%. This kind of price action is typical in gold as it makes a great safe haven until things great really bad. At that point,

The craziest thing about the market reaction during covid was when bonds blew up. In the most risk-off week in generations, the global safe haven didn’t work. Yields jumped and it forced the Fed to launch unlimited QE, including days when the Fed bought $300 billion in bonds. That was frightening but it was also

This is also in part a key factor that is weighing on Japanese yen pairs in FX. It’s been a full-fledged flight to safety in markets to start the week. Looking to Fed pricing, traders are now seeing 128 bps of rate cuts in the next three meetings. To be more specific, traders are pricing

From highest in 30 years to correction to bear market in just a few weeks. Strengthen the yen, they said 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to rise amid lots of bullish drivers. We recently had a dovish Fed decision where Fed Chair Powell hinted to a September rate cut and didn’t even close the door for “several” rate cuts before the end of the year. Last Friday, we got an ugly US NFP report as the

Final Services PMI 52.5 vs. 52.0 prelim and 53.1 prior.Final Composite PMI 49.1 vs. 48.7 prelim and 50.4 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 52.5 (Jun: 53.1). 4-month low. HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 49.1 (Jun: 50.4). 4-month low. Output prices rise at slowest rate since April 2021.

The big one to watch will be later in US trading, with the ISM services PMI for July coming up. With markets already reeling after the US jobs report last week, this might just exacerbate that sentiment further especially if we see a poor reading. As for European trading today, it looks like emotions are

Bitcoin has had a rough showing since the weekend, falling below $60,000 yesterday and now threatening a drop under $50,000 today. It’s the first time since February that the cryptocurrency is testing waters below the key level. And the heavy selling comes as traders are in a full-fledged flight to safety mode across markets. Looking

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. And in any case, this is a market currently driven by emotions more than anything else. As such, that matters more to price action rather than any specific levels on the charts. That especially if you’re looking at risk assets and the likes

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Saudi Aramco has raised its official selling price (OSP) for Arab light for Asia by USD 0.20/bbl to USD 2.00/bbl above the benchmark (Oman/Dubai average) for September. This is the first bump higher in three months. It fell short of the +50 cents expected (Bloomberg survey, n=5) It suggests a degree of confidence in more

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not a lot changed from late Friday levels: EUR/USD 1.0924USD/JPY 146.53GBP/USD 1.2804USD/CHF 0.8583USD/CAD 1.3875AUD/USD 0.6519NZD/USD 0.5958 Oil markets are yet

Prior -0.2% Looking at the breakdown, there was an increase in prices for intermediate goods (+0.1%), energy (+1.6%), capital goods (+0.1%), and non-durable consumer goods (+0.1%). The price for durable consumer goods was stable on the month. If you strip out energy prices though, the prices for the total industry would’ve only reflected a 0.1%

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The pair traded to a low of 0.9210 earlier, before catching a bounce to 0.9310-20 levels currently. The jump in the past two hours is also perhaps why the euro is more resilient today, with EUR/USD up 0.5% to 1.0960 now. That is being helped by a rebound in EUR/CHF after meeting its lowest levels

The pair has just hit the lows for the day at 143.55, threatening an over 2% drop today alone already. This comes as traders are sticking with the flight to safety as markets have gone into full blown panic mode. It’s a bloodbath in the equities space with the Nikkei down over 7% currently, with

China Caixin Services PMI rises to 52.1 in July, beats expectations of 51.4 Services PMI increases to 52.1 from 51.2 in JuneNew business growth accelerates to solid paceEmployment growth fastest in nearly a yearPrices charged unchanged despite rising input costsComposite PMI dips to 51.2 from 52.8, 9-month lowManufacturing sector facing greater pressure than services The

Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 vs. 52.4 prelim and 52.1 prior.Final Composite PMI 52.8 vs. 52.7 prelim and 52.3 prior. Key findings: Demand for UK services rises at fastest pace since May 2023. Business confidence rebounds to five-month high. Price pressures remain strong. Comment: Joe Hayes, Principal Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “With the

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Headline via Reuters: South Korean Finance Ministry said it will take measures to respond to heightened market volatility if needed As an example of how global market volatility is hitting South Korea, here an hourly USD/KRW chart: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The global rout has hit crypto as well. ETH/USD is now just above where to was to begin 2024: ps. ETH above 2300 now as I post This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -7.3 Investor morale slumped further in August, with the headline reading dropping to its lowest since January now. The expectations index also fell from 1.5 in July to -8.8 in August, highlighting worries over the economy in the next six months. Sentix noted that investors were concerned about geopolitical uncertainty, as well as the

In terms of daily points fall, this is a record decline for the Nikkei. This even exceeds the drop from Black Monday in 1987. Talk about pain. The thing when you view the chart above is that there are plenty of margin calls surely amid the declines in the last three days. And that is

We went from pricing in six rate cuts in November last year, to delaying the first rate cut from March to May. And then to pricing in just one rate cut by the time May arrived. We then bounced between that and two rate cuts over the last few months, before suddenly going back to

Wow, what a brutal day we are having in the markets. On the data front, we don’t have much on the agenda as we will just get the final European and UK Services PMI readings in the European session, and the US ISM Services PMI in the American session. I don’t think the market will

Bank of Japan June meeting minutes A few members said import prices rising due to recent yen fall, creating upside inflation riskOne member said cost-push inflation could heighten underlying inflation if it leads to higher inflation expectations, wage increasesOne member said pass-through of higher labour costs accelerating, could appear in consumer inflationOne member said BOJ

Prior 56.8Composite PMI 53.4Prior 55.8 It’s not a major data release but it won’t help to calm market fears on the day. The euro area economy is seen stuttering to start Q3 and that could well pressure the ECB into cutting in September. For now, traders have fully priced that in with the odds of

The index tracks the prices of 17 of New Zealand’s major commodity exports, including dairy products, meat, wool, forestry products, and seafood. In New Zealand dollar terms, the index lifted 0.2% m/m as the NZD Trade Weighted Index fell 1.9% in July. As part of the report are comments from ANZ on shipping prices: Global

The Nikkei 225 futures have now been suspended amid triggering the circuit breaker. Talk about carnage. In just three days, the Nikkei itself has erased its gains for the entire year-to-date. It was less than four weeks ago that the index hit a record high above 42,000. Pain. The selling has been quite relentless not

The ‘sidecar’ is a rule that lets the Korea Exchange (KRX, the operator of SK’s bourse) halt futures trading of equities during periods of extreme market volatility. Triggered when the benchmark KOSPI futures contract moves more than 5% from the previous close. The KRX limits program trading for five minutes as a ‘circuit breaker’ Rushing

USD/JPY fell to just under 146.00 earlier on the gap lower for US equity indexes: US equity findex futures have opened sharply lower for the new week Tit recovered but has since lost it all and is now lower, circa 145.83 or so as I update. There is no fresh news nor data. None is

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi Won’t comment on daily share movesClosely watching market moves with a sense of urgencyShare prices determined by various factors including economic situation, corporate activity This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The ‘Sahm Rule’ was developed by noted economist Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors. There is an explanation of it below (scroll down). Sahm was interviewed (Fortune) on it after the July employment report (Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 2 Aug: Bond market cuts rate for Fed after weak jobs data) triggered it:

Yen strength, equities weakness. Last week’s play book continuing. Mix in escalating tensions in the Middle East: Sec State Blinken said on Sunday that Iran & Hezbollah attack on Israel could start Monday TV show later Monday? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Which is the tail, which is the dog? It varies. Futures open for the week: US equity index futures have opened sharply lower for the new week USD/JPY marked lower, a tic under 146.00 seen via EBS: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US National Hurricane Center has issued the warning: Tropical Storm Debby expected to become a hurricane tonight and make landfall in the Florida big bend area on MondayWill bring a major flood threat to the southeastern US Oil traders will want to watch developments for the Gulf. For those likely to be impacted, take

The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is Monday and Tuesday (August 5 and 6). The basically unanimous expectation is for a hold for the cash rate, a ‘hawkish’ hold. The RBA policy announcement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday, August 6, 2024: 0430 GMT, and 0030 US Eastern timethis will be accompanied by

Ugly. Nasdaq futures, NQ, -1.28%, down more than 260 pointsS&P 500 futures, ES, -0.85%, down more than 50 pointsOil, CL, up more than 1% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A stock index circuit breaker is a mechanism used in stock markets to temporarily halt trading when an index experiences a significant drop in value. The purpose of this system is to prevent panic selling and allow time for investors to process information and make rational decisions. circuit breaker triggered for Topixalso for government bond

The Bank of Japan minutes are from the June meeting. The Bank of Japan meeting in June produced the commitment to trim back JGB buying from the following, July, meeting: Will decide on specific bond buying reduction plan for the next 1-2 years at next policy meeting.BOJ governor Ueda says will begin tapering bond purchases

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, November, and December, with a larger 50 basis point cut possible if the August employment report is as weak as July’s. has increased its estimated probability of a US recession within the next year to 25%, up from 15%, GS

Forecast for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from Westpac in New Zealand. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China Caixin Services PMI, Eurozone PPI, US ISM Services PMI, Fed’s SLOOS.Tuesday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, RBA Policy Decision, Swiss Unemployment Rate and Retail Sales, Eurozone Retail Sales, Canada Services PMI. Wednesday: New Zealand Labour Market report, BoC Minutes.Thursday: BoJ Summary of Opinions, US Jobless Claims.Friday: China CPI, Canada Labour Market report.

This is a good spot for a bounce in many things. There are many times when the strong hands in the market would step in here; the economy isn’t that bad, there’s no financial crisis and companies are still making money. Yes, the Fed is behind the curve but they have more ammunition than they’ve

How reflexive is the economy to the stock market?What will be the main earnings releases for the week starting August 5Goolsbee: If inflation and the job market continue cool, the Fed should cutKamala Harris crosses threshold to become Democratic nomineeBaker Hughes US oil rig count unchangedFed’s Goolsbee: The job of a central bank is to

In this video, I take a technical look at the major currency pairs vs the USD. As a bonus, I also take a look at the 2 major stock indices as traders prepare for the new week. Including (along with the time on the video): EURUSD 0:15USDJPY 2:15GBPUSD 3:38USDCHF 5:25USDCAD 6:37AUDUSD 7:47NZDUSD 9:18S&P 10:21NASDAQ 11:39

The commodity currencies are in an interesting spot right now. The US dollar is falling on a few fronts because the market is re-thinking the path of Fed funds. But they’re re-thinking it due to slower growth and inflation. Rates are also relatively high in the commodity block, currently at: 4.50% in Canada4.35% in Australia5.50%

The Nasdaq is down 10.4% from the high just three weeks ago but when you zoom out, it’s more of a minor correction after an incredible rally. If stocks can steady here, this episode will be quickly forgotten. The problem is that we could see more selling and here is the case for it: AI

It was a wild week in stock markets as a huge post-FOMC jump turned into a crash lower. The Nasdaq is now down 10% from the highs, matching the mark for a technical correction. On the day: S&P 500 -1.8%Nasdaq -2.4%DJIA -1.5%Russell 2000 -3.6% On the week: S&P 500 -2.1%Nasdaq -3.3%DJIA -2.1%Russell 2000 -6.7% If

Goolsbee continues to do the media rounds: “It’s one month’s number, it’s a negative number,” Austan Goolsbee told Sirius XM, later adding: “This negative number fits into the through-line of — hey, better be careful, if you’re going to be as restrictive as we’ve been.” If inflation and the job market continue cool, the Fed

Admittedly, this week was the biggest of the quarter with 4 of 7 “Magnificent 7” announcing including Meta, Apple, Amazon and Microsoft. How did those stocks do this week? 2 up and 2 down, with Amazon the worst performer as they missed on revenues (first miss in over 2 year). They also see less robust

PBOC adviser Huang Yiping has made a break from the usual restrained tone at the upper echelons of Chinese authority, with a call for bolder stimulus and a lower inflation target Urges more fiscal stimulus and consumption boostWarns of “low inflation trap” risk for Chinese economySuggests lowering CPI target to 2%-3% from current 3%Rare public

Why it’s important? In the Asian session, Eamonn published the range of estimates for today’s US NFP report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although

The July employment report is due from the US on Friday 2 August 2024 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1230 GMT Adam had a preview posted earlier: Preview: July non-farm payrolls lands in a worried market You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’

The problem with gold is that it’s a good asset to hold with things are moderately bad in markets. But when things get really bad, it gets sucked into the financial vortex. That’s what happened early in covid and that’s what is happening now (to a lesser extent). It was trading as high as $2477

Oil rigs unchanged at 482Natural gas rigs -3 to 98 Overlooked in all the drama in markets this week was the EIA report massively revising lower US oil production. It’s barely risen in the past year now, highlighting some risks going forward to supply. That said, the market is totally focused on demand at the

The GBPUSD is higher on the day in sympathy with the dollar selling after the weaker US jobs report. However, the move to the upside did find willing sellers near a swing area target area between 1.2644 and 1.2667. That area did stall earlier rallies this week ahead of the interest cut by the BOE

Overview of Sector Performance The latest stock market heatmap reveals a day marked by significant volatility across various sectors, particularly within the technology and consumer cyclical segments. Today’s trading sees tech giants Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) experiencing sharp declines of 5.48% and 3.66% respectively, underscoring broader concerns within the semiconductor industry. In contrast, Apple

It’s not a surprise but Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee for President. She has played her cards right during the downfall of Biden and didn’t face any real challenges. She crossed the threshold for delegate supporters this week so the convention will be a coronation. PredictIt has Harris slightly favored over Trump right

Here’s a snapshot of things as a whole: Eurostoxx -1.6%Germany DAX -1.5%France CAC 40 -0.9%UK FTSE -0.6%S&P 500 futures -1.1%Nasdaq futures -1.8%Dow futures -0.8%Russell 2000 futures -2.2% The selling is pretty much broad-based as seen above, so it’s not quite just limited to tech. In FX, the dollar is slightly weaker across the board today

Info via Reuters Polling on the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, showing that the RBA is expected to keep cash rate at 4.35% on Tuesday, August 6 No rate cuts seen until Q1 2025 despite inflation easing32 out of 33 economists predict no change at the August meetingMarket pricing shows 55% chance of a

Japan finance minister Suzuki Will analyze impact of forex volatility on economy, respond appropriatelyWill continue to closely monitor forex movementsStock prices are determined in the market based on various factors such as economic conditionsClosely watching stock movements with a sense of urgencyDesirable for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Suzuki is going to

Prior was +206 (revised to +179K) Details of the July 2024 jobs report: Two-month net revision -29K vs -111K priorUnemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.1% expected (unrounded 4.252%)Prior unemployment rate 4.1%Participation rate 62.7% vs 62.6% priorU6 underemployment rate 7.8% vs 7.4% priorAverage hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% expectedPrior avg hourly earnings +0.3% m/mAverage hourly earnings

The weaker US data has the AUDUSD and NZDUSD moving higher (lower USD). For the AUDUSD it has moved in between its 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 0.6527 and 0.6549. The price needs to get outside of that range to either increase the bullish bias or increase the bearish bias. For the NZDUSD,

The USDCHF has moved sharply lower today on the back of the weaker US jobs report, sharply lower yields, and lower stocks. The CHF tends to be a safe-haven currency in times of trouble, and that is what we are seeing in the fair today as it races away from its 100 hour moving average.

A key line from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday was this: “If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we are prepared to respond.” Today, the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3% from 4.1% and non-farm payrolls growth of 144K disappointed the 175K economist consensus.

Economist at Citigroup are now forecasting a 50 basis point cut from the Fed in September and another one in November. That’s a big call and it’s likely adding to the downward pressure on Treasury yields and in stock markets. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Economists at Goldman Sachs now see the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points at all three remaining meetings this year. Previously they forecast two cuts. “Today’s report indicates that the softening in labor market conditions has now gone beyond the amount that was welcome,” Goldman writes. Additionally, economists there see a likelihood of a

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost yesterday following an ugly US ISM Manufacturing PMI as the markets went into risk-off. Overall, we had goldilocks data releases until now with an economy that’s been slowing but still growing. So, one bad report might not be a gamechanger, but the markets are increasingly sensitive to bad

Jeanna Smialek from the New York Times is out with some comments from the Fed’s Barkin, who is also set to speak on TV shortly. “More significant reductions typically would be associated with an economy that feels like it’s deteriorating rapidly. And again, 114,000 jobs, while not as good as we’ve been running, on a

If we stay restrictive for too long, we have to think about the employment mandateIf unemployment is going to go up higher than 4.1%, that’s the kind of thing the Fed has to respond toThe through-line of the data doesn’t change based on one month’s numberWe have been seeing the improvement we’ve wanted on inflationWe

Australian Q2 PPI +1.0% q/q prior +0.9% +4.8% y/y prior +4.3% Lucky this isn’t CPI, a rise to 4.8% y/y from 4.3% would be a worry for the Reserve Bank of Australia. And hopefully it doesn’t get passed on to consumers ’cause then it could well pressure CPI higher. — The Producer Price Index (PPI)

A major deleveraging event is intensifying as bonds are aggressively bought and equities are hammered. The message from the market is that the Fed is behind the curve in an economy that’s sputtering. Citigroup was just out with a call for two 50 bps cuts to start the cycle while the market is pricing in

The major indices are opening lower with the NASDAQ leading the way. Yesterday the: S&P fell -1.37% Dow industrial average fell -1.21%. NASDAQ -2.3% Russell 2000 index fell -3.03% A snapshot of the major indices shows:. Dow Industrial Average average is down -511.4-1.27% at 39850S&P index is down -89.0-1.64% at 5356NASDAQ index is down -450

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has recently highlighted his belief that inflation is still problematic but his economics team disagrees. They’ve now joined Citigroup in calling for back-to-back 50 basis points cuts in September and November to kick off the rate-cutting cycle. “So we now think the FOMC cuts by 50bp at both the September and

The Fed blackout is over and (for once) the market wants to hear what everyone has to say. The game has changed since Wednesday with the market now contemplating half-point cuts starting in September. The Fed’s Goolsbee (dove) and Barkin (middle of the road) are expect on business TV at the top of the hour.

The Nasdaq index opened lower, rallied up and briefly moved above the 100-day MA at 16876.83 Just above that sits at the 50% of the move up from the May low to the July high. That level came in at 16946.92. THe high price today reached 16920.63 between the two levels. Buyers turned to sellers.

There isn’t anything too significant on the board for today but there are some to be wary about. The first one is for USD/CAD at 1.3900, where the expiries are decent in size. It coincides with key resistance around the 2022 and 2023 highs, so the expiries could help to keep a lid on things

Bad news is bad news in the equity market, particularly small caps. S&P 500 futures are down 1.5% ahead of the open while Nasdaq futures are down 2.2% and the Russell 2000 is down 3%. There was time when hopes for Fed cuts could buoy the market but it increasingly looks like the Fed is

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi: Stock prices are determined in the market based on various factors such as economic conditions and corporate activitiesWill continue to pay close attention to markets with sense of urgencyImportant for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentalsClosely watching fx movesWon’t comment on forex levels USD/JPY update, swings are not

The decline in the US stock market and the fall in yield has the USDJPY moving below are as well. However, it has now reached a key swing area target. That level comes between 145.90 and 146.514. The low price just reached 146.53. The area will test the seller’s conviction. Can they get below the

A storm is tracking across Cuba over the next 24 hours but then it will quickly turn north and track along the Florida west coast. “The system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it moves offshore,” the NHC says. “The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with

Inflation data from South Korea for July 2024: CPI +0.3% m/m expected +0.25%, prior -0.2% CPI +2.6% y/y expected 2.4%, prior 2.4% The ‘last mile’ thing is still threatening. This slight rise from the previous month is, well, a slight rise, but if its repeated in other economies (looking at you USA) it could complicate

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The heavy selloff came quite suddenly in US trading yesterday and that is carrying over to sentiment today as well. In Asia, Japanese stocks are facing a rout with the Nikkei down 4.5% and Topix down 4.7% currently. As Eamonn said, absolute carnage. The Hang Seng index is also down 2% at the break as

The probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has fallen. This is not due to the market thinking the Fed won’t cut, but because the chance of a 50-basis point cut has entered the conversation in a big way. Deteriorating economic data is driving speculation of

Prior was -0.5Factory orders ex transportation +0.1 vs +0.5% priorShipments +0.5% Revisions to durable goods orders June durable goods -6.7% versus a -6.6% preliminary. Prior month +0.1%Durable goods ex transportation +0.4% versus +0.5% preliminaryDurable goods non-defense capital goods ex-air +0.9% versus +1.0% preliminary The factory orders number is a slight miss but the change is

USD/JPY is down 217 pips on the day to 147.22. It fell as low as 147.03 in the aftermath of the non-farm payrolls report compared to 149.00 just before the data. It’s the lowest since March and erases a huge runup in the pair that caused considerable angst for Japanese policymakers. The reversal in fortunes

US 10-year yields fell as low as 3.79% in the aftermath of non-farm payrolls but have since seen a retracement to 3.86%. The bottom was just above the December low of 3.78%, a time that also saw considerable angst about a looming recession and rapid Fed rate cuts. The bond market has been at the

The People’s Bank of China uses its black-box “Counter-Cyclical Factor” to prop up its currency, when needed. Like now, its been doing so for many, many months. I posted some info on what we know about (not much!) the CCF yesterday: forthright explanation is the CCF allows the PBOC to manipulate the yuan — People’s

The EUR is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is weaker ahead of the US jobs report.Yields continue its fall as it does the Fed’s work for them now as data keeps coming in weaker and weaker. Stocks continue its slide as the biggest consumer retailer

Fundamental Overview The JPY eventually increased the gains following the BoJ rate hike as Governor Ueda delivered some hawkish comments during the press conference. On Wednesday, we had the FOMC rate decision and as expected it was a dovish one. Fed Chair Powell hinted to a September rate cut and didn’t even close the door

Discover time-tested trading strategies for beginners to get you started on trading bull and bear markets with confidence The post Trading Strategies for Beginners (The Complete Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

The USD is lower. Yields are lower with the 2-year down -28 basis points. The 10 year yield is down -18 basis points. Stocks are moving lower from already depressed levels after the weaker US jobs report. S&P index is down -101 points. Dow Industrial Average was -575 points. NASDAQ index -476 point. The market

The USD is lower after the US jobs report which came in weaker than expectations with non-farm payroll rising just 114K versus 175K estimate. The unemployment rate pushed up to 4.3% from 4.1% estimate and 4.1% last month. Average earnings were weaker at 0.2% versus 0.3%. Finally, the average workweek fell from 34.2 hours from

Headlines: Preview: July non-farm payrolls lands in a worried marketWhat are the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?Equities stay pressured so far in European morning tradeA couple of August trends to watch out for in FXSwitzerland July CPI +1.3% vs +1.3% y/y expectedSwitzerland July manufacturing PMI 43.5 vs 43.8 expected Markets: EUR leads, USD

Happy jobs Friday. In the bigger picture, this isn’t a pivotal jobs report for the economy. There’s some slowing baked in and the Fed will get another non-farm payrolls report before the September FOMC decision. What’s changed the game is the market — specifically the bond market — shooting higher in a pure flight to

Major currencies are keeping steadier so far today, with light changes overall. Even USD/JPY is “only” seeing a roughly 100 pips range, keeping flattish now near 149.40. The pair continues to see volatile swings in the last few sessions, not least with 10-year yields in the US falling below 4%. The bigger story is the

Nikkei 225 and Topix are down circa 5% from yesterday’s close. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost yesterday following an ugly US ISM Manufacturing PMI as the markets went into risk-off. Overall, we had goldilocks data releases until now with an economy that’s been slowing but still growing. So, one bad report might not be a gamechanger, but the markets are increasingly sensitive to bad

The July employment report is due from the US on Friday 02 August 2024 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1230 GMT Adam had a preview posted earlier: Preview: July non-farm payrolls lands in a worried market You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’

Prior 43.9 Swiss manufacturing conditions continue to suffer and overall, it points to some weakness in the economy with the services sector also seeing a print below 50 in July. Here is the breakdown for the manufacturing report: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost yesterday following an ugly US ISM Manufacturing PMI as the markets went into risk-off. Overall, we had goldilocks data releases until now with an economy that’s been slowing but still growing. So, one bad report might not be a gamechanger, but the markets are increasingly sensitive to bad

Let’s get straight to it. On paper, August is the worst month for AUD/USD and pretty much the aussie in general. Over the last 20 years, the pair has fallen in 16 out of the last 20 August months. It’s almost the polar opposite of what February typically is for AUD/USD. If you look at

German DAX futures -0.8%French CAC 40 futures -0.8%UK FTSE futures -0.4% After salvaging some pride towards the end of July, European indices are being caught in another downdraft again now to start August trading. France’s CAC 40 index looks poised now to fall back towards its lowest levels since November last year. The overall mood

Today all eyes will be on the US NFP report. There is some fear in the markets following yesterday’s ugly ISM Manufacturing PMI, so if we get an ugly NFP report we might see widespread risk-off. The market has fully priced in three rate cuts by the end of the year with chances of a

The US National Hurricane Center warns of a tropical depression likely to form over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near Florida this weekend. Something for oil & product traders to be aware of: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US non-farm payrolls data – the key ranges for estimates to watchJapan Industry Minister Saito says economic fundamentals aren’t badUS equity index futures continue their slide, NQ has lost over 1% in evening tradeMore from Japan finance minister Suzuki: Need conviction Japan won’t go back to deflationJapan finance minister Suzuki closely watching stock prices, FX

I think there can be something of a sigh of relief on this as Hezbollah launching ‘dozens’ of rockets isn’t exactly new. That said, you have to keep a close eye on what’s coming from Iran so there is no sleeping easy on Middle East trades. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD is now extending higher and in the process is moving above the highs from earlier this week at 1.38652. Earlier today, the pair went to the edge of the abyss near the low of the swing area between 1.3784 and 1.3803. The inability to push below that area both yesterday and today, gave

The data is here from earlier in the session: South Korean July CPI rises more than expected, and more than in June The Bank of Korea have made a statement, not worried: Slight rise in inflation was in line with earlier projectionInflation to continue easing from August Will make quarterly inflation projection from august given

Eurostoxx -1.2%Germany DAX -1.0%France CAC 40 -0.4%UK FTSE -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.8%Italy FTSE MIB -1.6% S&P 500 futures are at the lows for the day seen down 1.1%, Nasdaq futures down 1.8%, and Dow futures down 0.7%. Meanwhile, bond yields look poised for another down day with 10-year Treasury yields lower by around 3 bps to

UBS says to shake off short term volatility and not miss out on rebounds: Market sentiment and positioning had become extended — making a pullback more likely. But market fundamentals remain positive, and we continue to expect the S&P 500 to recover and end the year higher at 5,900 UBS still like prospects for long-term

Justin brought us up to speed on the latest from the Bank of Japan: a supporting document to their rate hike yesterday and reaffirms the current policy path they are on. Via a snippet from Commerzbank, analysts there also see the Bank of Japan adopting a stance that favours further interest-rate rises, and is thus

Prior +1.3%Core CPI +1.1% y/yPrior +1.1% Slight delay in the release by the source. This matches with the readings from June, so that will keep the status quo for the SNB. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The latest JPM Global Manufacturing PMI was published on Thursday, it dipped below 50 in July, signaling a slump back into contraction J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in July from 50.8 in JuneFirst contraction in 2024 so far, ending 6-month expansion streakOutput growth slowed significantly, new orders declined for first time since JanuaryUS

It wasn’t just four weeks ago that the Nikkei scaled to fresh record highs above 42,000 and yet here we are. What a rout. This takes the drop in the last two days to over 8% already. And the daily drop today is the largest since March 2020, when the Covid pandemic struck. The mood

Intel earnings missed on the top and bottom line. EPS $0.02 vs $0.10Revenues $12.83 billion versus $12.94 billion expected Suspend dividend starting in a Q4 of 2024 Announces a $10 billion cost reduction plan. Company is announcing a 15% headcount reduction Shares after the close are trading down -10.12% at $26.10 This article was written

Global equites being slammed. ES and NQ off heavily in US Thursday evening trade on Globex. Nasdaq: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Industry Minister Saito adding some verbal support to equities, tor at least trying to: Says economic fundamentals aren’t bad, when asked about sharp fall in stock marketSays strong movement seen in investment and wage hike continuing This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Eyes are on Israel’s northern border and whether we will see Hezbollah launch attacks. Israel’s military says warning sirens are sounding in northern Israel. The Middle East factor is certainly part of the risk aversion trade today but my guess is that it’s a small part. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Australian June home loans value +1.3% m/m expected +0.1%, prior -1.7% Owner occupied housing finance +0.5% m/m prior -2.0% Investor housing finance +2.7% m/m prior -1.3% AUD/USD is a little higher after this data and the PPI This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Suzuki: Important to keep proper debt management through close dialogue with marketsReduction in BOJ’s JGB purchases would increase need for financial institutions to buy JGBs, raising importance of dialogue with marketsCorrection in yen’s weakness could push down import prices, tame consumer pricesNeed conviction that Japan won’t go back to deflation before announcing

The market has gone from euphoria to fear in a heartbeat. There was a ‘buy everything’ mode yesterday as the market pushed to price in more Fed rate cuts due to a weakening economy. Now, the market is starting to sense too much economic weakness is coming and that the Fed is behind the curve.

Amazon shares are down 7.9% after earnings. Amazon (AMZN) reported its Q2 2023 earnings after the bell on Thursday and they’re a mixed bag: EPS: $1.26 vs $1.04 expectedRevenue: $147.98B vs $148.78B expectedAWS net sales: $26.28B vs $25.98B expected Key takeaways: Strong bottom line performance with EPS beating estimates by $0.22Revenue slightly missed expectations, coming

Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) . Shares are trading unchanged EPS: 0.53 exp. 0.52 – BEATRevenue: 1.24 billion exp. 1.24 billion – MET Block Inc (SQ) : Shares are trading up 4.51% EPS: 0.93 exp. 0.85 – BEATRevenue: 6.16 billion exp. 6.28 billion – MISSED Roku Inc (ROKU) : SHares are trading up 5.61% Revenue: 968

The most recent congressional trading form filed shows that US congresswoman Nancy Pelosi bought more $NVDA shares and sold some $MSFT shares. bought 10,000 shares worth of Nvidiasold 5,000 shares of Microsoft You know what to do. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:. And Happy Friday all! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The old adage is that if the US catches a cold, Canada gets the flu. The market is certainly sending warning signals about the US economy as yields plunge but USD/CAD hasn’t made a decisive move yet. But that moment might not be far off as the pair threatens a trio of highs from the

US July ISM manufacturing index 46.8 vs 48.8 expectedUS initial jobless claims 249K vs 236K estimateJuly US S&P Global manufacturing PMI 49.6 vs 49.5 prelimAtlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 estimate to 2.5% vs 2.8% priorBank of England Bailey: Would caution against you that BOE would cut rates continuallyBOE Pill: We are not committing to further interest

Apple earnings: EPS $1.40 versus $1.34 expected: BEAT Revenues $85.78 billion versus 84.44B expected: BEAT Other details: China Revenue: actual $14.73 billion (-3% on a constant currency basis) Expected to be $15.2 billion, down 3.1% from $15.7 billion last year. MISSiPhone Actual $39.3 billion. Sales are expected to be $38.9 billion, down 1.8% year over

The major US stock indices are closing sharply lower with the small-cap Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ index leading the way a lower. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average average felt -496.00 points or -1.21% at 40346.78S&P index fell -75.69 points or -1.37% at 5446.60NASDAQ index fell -405.25 points or -2.30% at 17194.15

The data today are not expected to move major FX much upon release. Keep an eye on USD/JPY, if anyone in Asia so much as looks at it sideways, it’ll swing wildly. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the

What’s expected: Consensus estimate +175K (LBBW at the low at +70K, Bank of American at the high at +225K)June +206K vs +190K expectedPrivate +148K estimate vs +136K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.1% vs 4.1% priorParticipation rate: 62.6% priorPrior underemployment U6 7.4%Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.7% y/y vs +3.9% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3%

The NASDAQ index is now down -520 points or -2.94% at 17081.20. The low price just reached 17075.97. There is a swing area between 16996.39 and 17057.34. That area is home to different swing highs and lows going back to June. Move below that area and traders will next target the 50% midpoint of the

The Fed funds market is now pricing in a 13.5% chance of a 50 basis point Fed cut in September. Many market participants are focused on Powell’s comments about the labor market. “If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we are prepared to respond,” he

More from BOEs Bailey with Sky News: Would caution against view that BOE would cut rates continually at successive meetings from here This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It’s still very, very early in the Q3 GDP forecasting game so I wouldn’t get excited about the moves in this indicator for at least a month. “After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross

Eurostoxx -0.5%Germany DAX -0.4%France CAC 40 -0.7%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.6% Even though it may not feel like it, European indices still managed to squeeze in a round of gains in July trading last month. That includes the CAC 40 index, which ended higher by 0.7%, despite all of its travails. For

The USDCHF is trading back to the low from earlier today at 0.87277. That level corresponds to the low from March 8 at 0.8728 (see red circle 3) and a swing high going back to January 23 at the same level. (see red circle 1). So far support is holding. The topside resistance now is

Fundamental Overview Gold got a boost recently on renewed tensions in the Middle East. In fact, on Tuesday, Israel struck Beirut (Lebanon) targeting the Hezbollah commander that launched a recent missile attack against Israel. Just some hours later, Israel managed to kill the top Hamas leader in Teheran (Iran). Moreover, we had the FOMC rate

Treasury yields made a decisive move lower yesterday in a sign that the market is seeing a break lower in inflation, and perhaps growth. However that came with a flurry of moves into month-end along with the turmoil in the Middle East that could be sending a false signal. Today we put the focus back

Prelim was 49.5Prior was 51.6Full report Details: New orders decline for first time in 3 monthsOutput growth slows to marginal paceEmployment rises at softest rate since JanuarySelling price inflation eases to one-year lowThe ISM manufacturing report is due at the top of the hour Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

The AUDUSD has been moving up and down, with the pair moving up to test the 200 hour MA. However, seller leaned early against that level and the price has since stepped back down to low for the day. On the way lower, the price broken back below the 100-hour MA at 0.65378. A catalyst?

Final Manufacturing PMI 43.2 vs. 42.6 expected and 43.5 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 43.2 (Jun: 43.5). 3-month low. HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 42.5 (Jun: 45.1). 5-month low. Decline in input prices eases amid pressure from shipping costs. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia,

S&P Global / Judo Bank Australian Manufacturing PMI for July 2024 prior 47.2, preliminary 47.4 From the report, key findings: Manufacturing output decline accelerates amid falling new orders Export orders contract at fastest pace in four years Job shedding unfolds at quickest rate since June 2020 In summary: Output and new orders are at cyclical

MUFG revises its outlook on the Bank of Japan, now anticipating two additional rate hikes within the fiscal year. This shift comes in response to the BoJ’s recent hawkish policy update, which has accelerated yen gains and could push USD/JPY towards the mid-140s. Key Points: Revised BoJ Rate Outlook: Two Additional Hikes: MUFG now forecasts

OPEC is in a bit of a tizzy with oil prices falling at the peak of summer driving season. The JMMC monitoring committee met today and reiterated that the planned gradual phase-out of the voluntary cuts could be paused or reversed if necessary. The next planned JMMC meeting isn’t until Oct 2. WTI crude is

Prior month -0.1% revised to -0.4%Construction spending for June -0.3% versus 0.2% expected Total Construction: June 2024 construction spending: $2,148.4 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate)Decrease from May 2024: -0.3% Increase from June 2023 YoY: +6.2% First six months of 2024 spending: $1,034.8 billionIncrease from first six months of 2023: 8.6%. The same 6-month period in

I did a double take on that result, back into contraction again after a good June. A huge miss on expectations. This is its first contraction in 9 months and points to embedded trouble in the Chinese economy. This PMI has been outperforming the official PMI and offered a sliver of hope, but now both

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 came in at 2.5% from 2.8% previously. It is early in the quarter, so the growth will evolve. However, the first move is lower: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on August

The dollar is still reeling from the more dovish Fed yesterday, especially Powell’s press conference. September looks to be a done deal barring any major surprises in the economy in the next six weeks. USD/JPY in particular is feeling the pinch after the BOJ hiked rates yesterday, with the pair settling below 150.00 currently. The

Headlines: BOE cuts bank rate by 25 bps to 5.00% in knife-edge callBOE governor Bailey: This was a finely balanced decisionBailey Q&A: We will make our judgements based on evidence from meeting to meetingUSD/JPY catches a bounce back above 150.00 for now10-year Treasury yields eye 4% mark next following post-Fed dropNasdaq Technical Analysis – Road

The market isn’t holding back. Bonds are rampaging higher and the Fed funds futures market is sensing deeper and quicker cuts. September Fed funds now price in a 16% chance of a 50 bps cut and cuts are nearly fully priced in at the next five meetings, running through March 2025. Pricing for June 2025

Yesterday we had disappointing PMIs from China: China July 2024 Official Manufacturing PMI 49.4 (expected 49.4) China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin and research firm Markit / S&P Global.

BOEs Pill: We are not committing to further interest rate cutsThere will be bumps in the road on inflation ahead Comments are consistent from comments from BOEs Bailey. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks open with gains in the major indices. Meta Platforms beat and gave positive guidance as well. Shares are trading up over 9% at the open. A snapshot of the market is currently showing: Dow Industrial Average average is trading up 227.75 points or 0.54% at 41065.58S&P index is up 23.16 points or 0.42%

The BoE statement is due at 1100 GMT / 0700 US Eastern time. A 25bp rate cut is the consensus estimate. Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks at 1130 GMT / 0730 US Eastern time. Communications from the Bak have been light, but the cut is expected to win by a small majority of votes

Fundamental Overview The USD has been rallying steadily against most major currencies in the recent couple of weeks, although the catalyst behind the move has been unclear. A good argument has been that most of the moves we’ve been seeing were driven by deleveraging from strengthening Yen. Basically, the squeeze on the carry trades impacted

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. That could help to draw in price action with the 200-hour moving average seen nearby at 1.0847 currently. But if anything else, it should keep things more contained at least until

The figures are from Japan’s Ministry of Finance for the June 27-July 29. You’ll recall highs for USD/JPY over 161.75 during that period. I’m not sure its correct to say ‘spent’ … given USD/JPY is now under 150 I’d say ‘shrewd investment’ 😉 What a load of malarkey it all was. Why didn’t the Bank

That is to be expected as the bloc is set to continue with the current policy stance before unwinding some of the production cuts later in October. Carry on as you will. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

o Families have spoken to loved ones after release from Russia16 prisoners have been released. 4 American, 5 Germans and 7 Russian citizens held wrongly Allies made bold and brace decisions as part of this dealsAllies matter.Russian political prisoners included in the deal stood up for democracy and human rights. Other details: Russia frees Wall

This is 15 straight months of contraction. Prior was 49.3Canadian manufacturing sector deteriorates at fastest pace in 7 monthsBusiness confidence hits lowest level since May 2020Input cost inflation remains solid but below trendSupply chain delays worsen, especially for sea freightNew orders fell sharply, with exports down the most since May 2020 Commenting on the latest

Today’s Market Overview The stock market today presents a varied landscape with noticeable leadership from the healthcare and technology sectors. Let’s delve into the sectors, big movers, and the macro trends influencing investor sentiment and strategies. Healthcare Sector Takes the Lead Marked by Eli Lilly’s impressive jump of 3.75%, the healthcare sector shines brightly in

Prior 52.3 A sign of change for the Spanish manufacturing sector? Perhaps. Output was higher on the month but orders declined, leading to just a marginal growth in July. But at least employment conditions are holding up well and the outlook remains fairly optimistic. HCOB notes that: “The wind in Spain’s manufacturing sector appears to

Prior month 48.5Prices paid 52.9 versus 52.1 priorEmployment 43.4 versus 49.3 last monthNew orders 47.4 versus 49.3 last monthProduction 45.9 versus 48.5 last monthSupplier deliveries 52.6 versus 49.8 last monthInventories 44.5 versus 45.4 last month.Backlog of orders 41.7 versus 41.7 last monthNew export orders 49.0 versus 48.8 last monthImports 48.6 versus 48.5 last month This

The market is getting a dose of bad (weak) economic data today. In the past when inflation was higher, bad was good as traders saw it as a slowing of the economy and with it inflation. WIth inflation more tame / lower, and the Fed more focused on both jobs AND inflation, the deluge of

In particular, EUR/USD is starting to invite a technical break to the downside now: The pair is down 0.4% to 1.0785 currently, threatening a break under 1.0800 and more notably its 100-day moving average (red line) of 1.0792. The drop today sees price now touch fresh lows in four weeks. Besides that, we’ve also seen

Prior 45.8 The revision to the headline reading sees it unchanged for the month of July, even as the output index declines to a seven-month low. Employment conditions also experienced a decline and there were further drops in purchasing activity and inventories, while business confidence weakened to a four-month low. HCOB notes that: “The widely

The dips in the USDCAD continue to hold support in the 1.3784 to 1.3803 area, but overhead resistance near the April high at 1.38448 is now an upside hurdle to get to and through. If the support is broken, I would expect the buyers to turn to sellers as they give up on the upside

Prior was +4.0% (revised to +3.8%)Productivity +2.3% vs +1.7% expectedPrior productivity +0.2% (revised to +0.4%) These numbers are so hard to calculate. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There were worries about too much of a good thing yesterday as everything shot higher. Those worries are looking well-founded as markets turn lower in a big way. The Nasdaq is down 1% and the Russell 2000 down 3% as early gains reverse. Treasury yields are down 13-8 bps led by the front end. Today’s

Services price inflation and domestic inflation pressures remain elevatedThere might be a slight rise in services price inflation in August, before easing for the rest of the yearWatching services prices very carefullyShould not adjust our course with every data surprise that comes inThere is still a question on whether persistent component of inflation can return

It was a tough start to the new month in Europe, similar to heavy selling in Japan. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +1.3%German DAX +2.3%UK FTSE 100 +1.1%French CAC +2.2%Italy MIB -2.6%Spain IBEX -2.0% BMW shares were beaten up today after earnings and German stocks are now testing the July lows. This article was written by

The losses are coming in fast in the last one hour, with GBP/USD falling from 1.2845 to a low of 1.2790 on the day. This is a move tied mostly to the pound, with EUR/GBP also now up 0.4% to 0.8450. It’s all about the BOE decision later in the day and this seems to

Prior +0.2% House price growth continues to push up slightly after the rebound since May with annual house prices now seen up 2.1% compared to the same month a year ago. That said, overall housing market activity remains on the mend as higher borrowing costs are still weighing. This article was written by Justin Low

Prior 45.4 It is a marginal revision lower as the French manufacturing sector slumped further in July. Of note, production, new orders and employment all decreased at faster rates. Besides that, input cost inflation accelerated further to its highest in a year-and-a-half. HCOB notes that: “French manufacturing isn’t recovering soon. In July, the headline HCOB

July 31, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In recent

Labor market is ‘strong but not overheated’ and about where it was pre-pandemicLonger-term inflation expectations appear to be well anchoredUnemployment rate remains lowLabor market has cooled, inflation has declined and risks have moved into better balanceAttentive to both sides of dual mandateQ2 inflation readings have added to confidence on inflationNeed greater confidence on inflationWe will

The Kickstart video for August 1 take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD moved lower in sympathy with the GBPUSD before the BOE rate decision. THe BOE did cut rates by 25 basis points by the smallest of margins (5 for, and 4 against

As the North American session begins, the CHF is a stronger and the GBP is the weakest. The Bank of England (BOE) became the latest central bank to cut rates after reducing its bank rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% in a decision marked by close voting, with the vote split at 4-0-5. The

Slightly better than expected trade surplus. AUD/USD is around 0.6545 and not a lot changed on the session. USD/JPY is now under 149.00! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US-based employers announced 25,885 job cuts in July, which is roughly a little over 9% higher compared to the same month a year ago. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

BOE will decide appropriate degree of restrictiveness at each meetingNot giving any view on the path of rates to come (when asked about a “one and done”)We will go from meeting to meeting, making judgement based on evidenceDoes not want to comment on market curve on rate cuts It doesn’t look like he will want

The FOMC statement didn’t offer up too much but the minor changes are still a small step towards making a change on rates. The most notable thing was highlighting “risks to both sides of the dual mandate”. It doesn’t sound exactly dovish but it is consistent with the Fed’s motives of starting to change things

Reuters with the headline, citing sources familiar with the matter. That said, no policy change is still expected from the meeting so the reason for the delay is not believed to be anything untoward. From earlier: OPEC+ reportedly to stick with output policy in latest meeting today This article was written by Justin Low at

Prior week 235Kinitial jobless claims 249K versus 236K estimate. Highest level since last year this time4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 238K vs 235.50K last week.Continuing claims 1.877M versus 1.856M estimate. Prior week continuing jobless claims 1.851M revised to 1.844M4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.857M vs 1.852M last week WIth both the initial

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been on a steady decline since the last US CPI report on July 11th. In the first stages of the pullback, we’ve been seeing a rotation from big cap stocks into small cap stocks as the Russell 2000 displayed an opposite price action. Eventually, the bearish momentum picked up and

Bank of England Chief Economist Pill speaks on ThursdayMarubeni CFO says expects a limited impact from the Bank of Japan rate hikeChina’s State Planner Vice Head says will actively expand domestic demandJapan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says important for FX to more in stable mannerBank of England meet Thursday, rate cut expected, but a ‘hawkish’

Marubeni CFO: Expect limited impact on financing costs from BOJ’s rate hikeThe yen’s depreciation turning to appreciation due to monetary policies in Japan and US was as we had expectedWeaker yen against US Dollar and Australian dollar in April-June period contributed about 9 bln yen to profit USD/JPY update, another volatile day: Marubeni Corporation is

Prior 5.25%Bank rate vote 4-0-5 vs 4-0-5 expected (Pill, Mann, Haskel, Greene dissented to keep rates on hold)Decision was “finely balanced”Domestic inflationary persistence is expected to fade away over the next few yearsThere is a risk that inflationary pressures from second-round effects will be more enduring in the medium-termNeed to be careful not to cut

Prior 6.4% The jobless rate in the euro area ticks a little higher again at the end of Q2, matching the figure back in March and in the same month a year ago. As a whole, labour market conditions are still holding up but there have been tentative signs of softness creeping in. This article

Analysts at JPM were tipping a September rate cut, and still do. They expect cuts each quarter to follow. But … they add that there is a risk of a rate cut at every meeting “if the unemployment situation continues to deteriorate”. —- Sheesh, how bad do they expect it to get??? This article was

Oil surged in the hours following the news yesterday: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in TehranHamas says that the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh is a dangerous escalation Eyes are on the Middle East in the wake of this news, and oil gained ground. Separately, a report from Bank of America says: “Oil prices have

There are no notable releases in the European session as we just get the Final readings of the PMIs. The focus will be mainly on the BoE Policy Decision where the expectations are skewed for a rate cut. In the American session, we have the US Jobless Claims, the Canadian Manufacturing PMI and the US

Underlying inflation is expected to increase graduallyFirms’ behavior has shifted more toward raising wages and prices, as per the spring wage negotiationsBaseline scenario is that virtuous cycle between wages and prices is projected to keep intensifyingBut there remain uncertainties regarding this outlookNeed to carefully monitor factors such as firms’ wage and price-setting behaviourMoves to reflect

The Bank of England meeting precedes Pill: Bank of England meet Thursday, rate cut expected, but a ‘hawkish’ cut Pill is speaking from 1615 GMT / 1215 US Eastern time: takes part in an online Q&A about the central bank’s quarterly Monetary Policy Report, released earlier in the day This article was written by Eamonn

Manufacturing PMI 47.4 vs. 46.1 expected and 45.7 prior. Key findings: Softer contractions recorded for new orders and production. Strongest input price inflation since late 2022. Lowest confidence levels this year so far. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr Tariq Kamal Chaudhry Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The Italian industry is on a

Scanning for news – not seeing anything of note. Is this politics related? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The March low at 4.038% is holding somewhat for now. But looking at things, it’s all about the 4% mark from a psychological perspective when it comes to 10-year yields. That especially after the Fed more or less sealed the deal for a September rate cut yesterday. The move lower over the last few months

The big week of earnings continues today with Meta reporting after the bell. We will also get results from Arm, Qualcomm, Carvana, Lam Research, Western Digital and more. Tomorrow after the close we get Amazon, Apple and Intel. Tech stocks rallied massively today including: NVDA +12.5%AVGO +11.3%TSLA +4%META +2.3% Microsoft also trimmed a 7% loss

Final Manufacturing PMI 52.1 vs. 51.8 expected and 50.9 prior. Key findings: Production growth fastest since February 2022. Input price inflation rises to 18-month high. Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “UK manufacturing has started the second half of 2024 on an encouragingly solid footing. July saw growth of production and new

FOMC interest rate decision: Rates unchanged but statement highlights dual risksFull statement from July 2024 FOMC rate decisionPowell: We have made no decisions about September but broad sense is we’re moving closerPowell opening statement: Labor market is ‘strong but not overheated’ADP July employment 122K vs 150K expectedUS Q2 employment cost index +0.9% vs +1.0% expectedCanada

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures +0.3% European indices ended more mixed though but the general mood in equities is a better one after the Wall Street rally. That owed much to tech stocks though, as the Dow was only up by 0.2% to close out July trading. But so far, US futures are also

Headline via Reuters: Ukraine’s government invokes moratorium law, will suspend foreign debt payments starting August 1 – resolution This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s State Planner Vice Head: There is ‘sufficient’ room for counter-cyclical policy adjustmentsChina has conditions, ability and confidence to achieve full-year growth targetWill actively expand domestic demand, putting consumption boost in a more striking positionwill promote effective investment – I think the reference to “counter-cyclical policy adjustments” is about the economy as a whole, Keynesian

The info comes from noted China analyst Michael Pettis via twitter: Henan province announced its consolidation plans on Sunday, naming 25 institutions to be merged into a provincial-level rural commercial bank. And goes on: This of course was inevitable. That its taken so long is a negative. That its finally happening is a positive. This

Gundlach spoke in an interview with US media, CNBC. Headlines via Reuters: Says a lot of room for the fed to cut short term interest rates Fed should have cut todayThink we have a 150 bp of cuts coming, certainly in a year from nowSays still believe 2 yr, 3 yr, 5 yr Treasuries are

For some context, OPEC+ will be holding an online JMMC meeting later today at 1000 GMT. According to the report, no changes to the current plan is likely. That means the bloc will continue its current deal and only start unwinding some of the output cuts starting from October. This article was written by Justin

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Qualcomm reported strong earnings and Meta boosted its capex estimate this year. Meta followed that up by saying it expects ‘significant’ capex growth in 2025. The gold rush mentality in the AI race is unrelenting. We heard the same from Microsoft yesterday and that’s eased fears of a pullback in chip spending and led to

The volatility swings are continuing in the pair and the latest move here is part of that. Treasury yields remain on the softer side with 10-year yields at 4.058%, so this isn’t really tied to that. Looking at the chart, the bounce does come after price tested the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing

The USDJPY is moving back toward its low for the day as yields move lower. The 2-year is now down -7.3 basis points at 4.286%. The 10 year yield is down -6.9 basis points at 4.072%. Looking at the 4- hour chart, the move lower has price testing the high of a swing area at

The tensions in the Middle East have been escalating significantly in the past week. And that is seeing the situation involving Israel and Hamas moving into unprecedented territory. In response, the geopolitical uncertainty finally caught up with markets yesterday. Oil had a standout day in particular, with WTI crude rising by over 4%. That helped

Terms of trade data from Australia for Q2 2024 Import Prices +1.0% q/q expected -0.7%, prior -1.8% Export Prices -5.9% q/q expected -5.3%, prior -2.1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Iran has more leaks than the Bank of Japan. I’m not sure how they expect to get anything done when they’re letting people get assassinated in a military compound and leaking military orders to the New York Times. That said, this might be another one of those ‘face saving’ drills where they lob some drones

The Bank of Japan hiked yesterday: ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen surges as BOJ hikes policy rate to 0.25% And the Federal Reserve gave hints a rate cut was coming in September: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: What a day, it had everything USD/JPY tumbled (it did so prior to the BoJ on the

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Fed says it’s attentive to risks on both sides of the mandate, a change from previous text that said it was highly attentive to inflation risksIn recent moths there has been ‘some’ further progress to 2% inflation goal vs ‘modest’ further progress previouslySays inflation remains ‘somewhat elevated’Economy continues to expand at ‘solid’ pace, job gains

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi: Japan appoints former top fx diplomat Masato Kanda to special advisor to cabinetKanda tasked to advise Japan PM Kishida on international financial trends Hayashi adds: Won’t comment on forex levelsImportant for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Closely watching fx moves thoroughly Meanwhile USD/JPY is around 149.20, after

There were 68.4 basis points of cuts priced in for the Fed this year ahead of the FOMC decision. That’s risen to 72.4 bps since, likely in response to Powell saying that he could envisions anything from ‘several’ rate cuts this year to zero. Pricing for June 2025 has also moved up to 157 bps

What a day in equity markets. Nvidia climbed 14% (and is up further after hours) in the largest one-day gain in market cap in history. Beyond that, it was a huge day in general and particularly for chipmakers after Microsoft said it would spend more in capex next year than this year (and Meta said

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

South Korean finance minister Says will swiftly act according to contingency plans to stabilize financial markets if neededMonitoring Middle East tensions, US electionSays will focus on risk management related to household debt, project financeWill devise more liquidity support measures for online commerce platforms if needed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I find it hard to believe that it’s truly possible to keep chips out of China. Reports out of Russia suggest you can still get anything there despite extremely harsh sanctions. The opportunities to smuggle and trans-ship are too high. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

June 12July 31, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strongmoderated, and the unemployment rate has remainedmoved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated.

S&P Global / Jibun Bank Japanese Manufacturing PMI for July 2024 comes in at 49.1 first time under 50 (and into contraction) in 3 monthsprior 50.0, preliminary 49.2 In summary: There was a significant reduction in new orders, leading to a sharp decline in production levels.Input price inflation reached its highest since April 2023, driven

The Wall Street Journal is gated, but here is the link of you can access it: Fed Clears Path for September Interest Rate Cut Officials held rates steady, but made an important pivot by highlighting a more equal focus on employment and inflation goals The gist of it is: While Powell and his colleagues didn’t

The NASDAQ index is up over 520 points. The price is currently up 520 points or 3.04% at 17667. The NASDAQ is above its 50-hour moving average and also stretching above the 38.2% retracement of the last move lower at 17647.85. On the topside, the 100-hour moving average and 50% retracement are near 17840. Meanwhile,

Before and After the FOMC decision (2:08 PM ET): US yields have moved marginally higher: 2-year yield went from 4.367% to 4.379%, +1.2 basement5-year yield went from 4.021% to 4.034%, +1.3 basis points10 year yield went from 4.112% to 4.127%, +1.5 basis points30-year yield one from 4.361% to 4.373%, +1.2 basis points US stocks are

A reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as our next meetingIf we were to see inflation moving down quickly or more-or-less in-line with expectations then I would think a rate cut could be on the table in SeptIf inflation were to prove stickier, then we would weigh that along

In the kickstart video for July 31, I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. The USDJPY is down sharply after the Bank of Japan did raise rates by 50 basis points to 0.25% and decreased the bond buying to ¥3 trillion.

Semiconductors Surge Ahead in Today’s Trading Session Today’s stock market is a vibrant canvas of greens with semiconductor stocks and major tech companies like Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG) charting notable gains. In an impressive show, Nvidia is currently up by 8.27%, demonstrating investor confidence and perhaps response to recent positive industry developments or financial

The EURUSD has continued its move to the downside and currently is printing new session lows for the day and testing the 50% midpoint of the move up from the June 26 low. Earlier today, the low price reached 1.08059. The 50% midpoint comes in 1.08061. The price just reached a new day low of

Bibi is on the wires: Israel has delivered a crushing blow to Iranian proxiesIsrael will exact a heavy price for any aggression towards it from anywhereIsrael faces challenging days Ismail Haniyeh’s most likely successor is Khaled Mashal, his deputy-in-exile who lives in Qatar, analysts and Hamas officials told Reuters. Mashal narrowly survived an attempt on

Risk assets and commodities in general are doing well today so that’s a portion of the $3 gain in crude today but it’s certainly not the whole story. WTI crude oil is up 3.9% to $77.64 in its best day in six weeks. What’s driving it? The Israel assassination of the Hamas political leader in

Looking at the details: Overall livelihood: 34.5 (previously 33.8)Income growth: 40.4 (previously 40.6) Employment: 42.0 (previously 41.7) Willingness to buy durable goods: 30.0 (previously 29.6) This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs anticipates that recent trends in economic data will lead the FOMC to revise its statement in ways that suggest a rate cut in September is becoming more likely. Key Points: Acknowledgement of Unemployment: Expected Change: The statement may acknowledge the recent increase in the unemployment rate while continuing to note that it remains

I find it’s always a good idea to re-read the prior FOMC statement just before the new one is released. From June 12: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past

The NASDAQ index has surged to the upside today ahead of the FOMC rate decision. However there has been a slowing of the run higher near the 50 day moving average at 17581.79. The last two tests of that moving average over the last five trading days have also found willing sellers near the level.

China’s central bank is set to move its one-year liquidity injection date to the 25th of each month, starting as early as August, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. This change, part of a broader policy framework overhaul, aims to decouple the Medium-term Lending Facility from the Loan Prime Rates. Highlights of the article: MLF

The Australia Q2 CPI report and BOJ monetary policy decision are already some big events for traders to work with. But there’s still much more to follow in the sessions ahead. In Europe, there will be the Eurozone July flash CPI report although it might not be that big a deal. But in US trading

The AUDUSD moved lower in the Asia-Pacific session after weaker core inflation in Australia tamed some of the fears of a rate hike next week when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets. The subsequent low price extended to a swing area between 0.6475 and 0.6486 where buyers entered (see red number circles on the chart

New Zealand Building Consents slump -13.8% m/m (prior -1.7% )-24% y/y Stats NZ today: “The number of homes consented in the year ended June 2024 has fallen to levels last seen five years ago” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Japan statement is expected sometime in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window this is 2230 – 2330 US Eastern time The Bank don’t have a firmly scheduled time for their policy announcements. Overnight was a leak: BOJ to discuss hike to 0.25% – reportAnother Bank of Japan leak says 0.25% is

Prior was -2.1%Index at 74.3 vs 70.8 prior (revised to 70.9) Strength was broad-based with the midwest, south and west all growing strongly. It’s a rare recent sign of life in the housing market, though the chart highlights how far the index has fallen. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of Mastercard are 2.7% higher pre-market after reporting earnings and revenues that beat expectations. More importantly, the company highlighted that it wasn’t seeing a slowdown from consumers. Revenues of 7.00 billion compared to 6.85 billion expected and earnings were $3.59 vs $3.51 expected. We delivered another strong quarter across all aspects of our business

Happy Fed day. We’re just two hours from the rate decision but the market isn’t expecting any big drama. The derivatives market is 97% priced for no change from the 5.25-5.50% Fed funds target rate. Eyes are on September, where 27.6 basis points of cuts are priced in, or a full rate cut with a

It’s a huge day coming up in Asia. The big focus is the Bank of Japan, the latest scuttlebutt shoved ‘risk’ lower and yen higher on Tuesday: BOJ to discuss hike to 0.25% – reportAnother Bank of Japan leak says 0.25% is under considerationNikkei reiterates the worst kept secret. BOJ considering hike to 0.25%Forexlive Americas

It’s a blockbuster day in the US but more of a mixed picture in Europe. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +0.8%German DAX +0.5%UK FTSE 100 +1.0%French CAC +0.75%Italy MIB -0.5%Spain IBEX -1.2% Those are some big divergences in Europe and are particularly stark with the S&P 500 up 1.7%. Chalk it up to month-end. This article

A quick round of selling pressure has hit the euro ahead of the month-end London fix. In general, these moves fade after the turn of the hour. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters have a piece posted that is a pretty good run down if you want another preview. Earlier: Bank of America expect a Bank of Japan rate hike today … see USD/JPY to (eventually) 145Bank of Japan Decision Day: Will Rates Rise or Hold Steady? Overnight was leaky: BOJ to discuss hike to 0.25% –

The USDCHF did move lower and to a new low going back to March today after the lower Employment Cost data. The move lower did fall below the 50% of the move up from the December 2023 low at 0.8777. Recall from last week, the price based against that level and bounced. Today, the sellers

That is very much expected and it reflects the 15 bps increase by the BOJ on their policy rate earlier here. But it is of course the first time they’re raising the rate in 17 years. So, a significant moment perhaps. Meanwhile, MUFG as a whole are only going to be raising the rates of

The USDCAD moved lower in the early US session today, helped by lower employment cost data. The pair may also shift the focus to the FOMC from the BOC. Recall, the BOC did cut for the 2nd consecutive meeting last week. Oil price are also higher today after persistent weakness. Technically, the pair moved back

The Canadian dollar is strengthening today with the help of a few tailwinds: WTI crude oil is up $2.43 to $77.17, largely on geopolitical tailwinds but US inventories also tightenedUS equities are ripping higher in a pro-risk move, with the Nasdaq up 2.5% as we near month endThe Fed decision today is likely to signal

The period between New York close and Tokyo open is the thinnest period of the 24 hour FX cycle. USD/JPY has kept up its swings. OVernight we had leak news: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaks the possibilty of 15 bps hike Since then there is nothing fresh news nor data wise.

The Bank of Japan have already told us they’ll be announcing plans to cut back on Japanese Government Bond buying. The question is if they’ll hike rates again. The chatter overnight centred on a 15bp hike: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaks the possibilty of 15 bps hike Bank of Japan Governor

Prior was 150K (revised to 155K)Annual pay growth for job-stayers slowed to 4.8%, lowest in 3 years, down from 5.0% priorJob-changers’ pay gains dropped to 7.2% from 7.7% More details: Goods-producing sectors added 37K jobs, with construction leading at +39KServices sectors added 85K, led by trade/transportation/utilities at +61KProfessional/business services saw notable job losses of -37K

The main event in the European session will be the release of the Eurozone July Flash CPI report. In the American session, we will get the US ADP, the Canadian GDP, the US Q2 Employment Cost Index, the Treasury Refunding Announcement and finally the FOMC Policy Decision. 09:00 GMT – Eurozone July Flash CPI The

Business confidence has a huge jump to 27.1% prior 6.1 Activity outlook 16.3%, also higher prior 12.2 ANZ’s Key points Business confidence jumped 21 points to +27 in July, and expected own activity lifted 4 points to +16. To be fair, these up/down responses are relative to an ever-weaker starting point (past own activity dropped

The major US stock indices are opening higher ahead of the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM ET. The employment cost data came in a little bit weaker than expectations at 0.9% versus 1.0%. The market is shrugging off the so-so earnings from Microsoft although it started is down -1.4%. Meta Platforms is on deck

Better than expected retail trade results for the y/y. The m/m is lower than the prior. Mixed results for this data following recent wage gains. I doubt the BoJ is paying too much attention to today’s data but this is probably indicative of on hold given its mixed nature. This article was written by Eamonn

Prior +2.2%HICP +2.6% vs +2.7% y/y expectedPrior +2.5% The readings are a marginal miss on estimates but are a touch higher compared to June. Services inflation are still a sticky point at 2.5% but at least much lower than in June, seen at 2.9% last month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.