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PBOC set 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.5% 3.5% expected, 3.5% prior 1-year LPR 3.0% 3.0% expected, 3.0 prior The eighth consecutive month without a change. More info here. Coming up soon: PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9576 – Reuters estimate This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at […]

The BOJ looks set to keep rates steady for now while signalling a tightening bias as yen weakness and fiscal uncertainty lift inflation risks. Reuters preview summarised. Summary: BOJ expected to hold policy rate at 0.75% Growth outlook for fiscal 2026 likely revised higher Yen weakness and wage gains keep inflation risks alive Snap election

Coming up from China today is the monthly Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting. Which used to be a subject of mareket focus, but not so much any more. Preview and why here: Economic and event calendar in Asia Tuesday, January 20, 2026: China interest rate setting — The People’s Bank of China is due to

Morgan Stanley argues Trump’s Greenland tariff threat is a stock-specific risk, not a systemic shock for European equities. Summary: Morgan Stanley sees tariff impact as concentrated, not broad Only 2.2% of MSCI Europe revenues directly exposed Trump threatens tariffs over Greenland dispute EU weighs retaliation and legal options Defence stocks remain a key beneficiary European

There is a report that Trump concedes ‘bad information’ on Greenland troop moves, opening path to de-escalation. Trump’s concession on Greenland troop deployments hints at de-escalation, but the strategic standoff with Europe remains unresolved. Summary: Trump privately conceded he may have had “bad information” on Greenland troop moves European deployments were pre-briefed and coordinated with

Geopolitical tensions remain at the forefront as Trump raised the stakes on the whole Greenland situation over the weekend. In case you missed it, he threatened tariffs on eight European countries over their opposition to US control of Greenland. That being Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Netherlands, Finland, and the UK. The tariffs will come

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%. Previous close was 6.9640 PBOC injects 324bn yuan, 7-day reverse repos, unchanged rate 1.4%. Earlier: PBOC set 5-

Here is a massive number: $8 Trillion European countries hold $8 trillion in US bonds and equities. That is almost twice as much as the rest of the world combined. It’s also what’s at stake over Greenland as Europe finds out that Trump plans to conquer Greenland and will put tariffs on seven European countries

Croatian central banker Boris Vujcic was selected as the next Vice President of the European Central Bank. Vujcic is a classic continuity pick. He’s been governor of Croatia’s central bank since 2012 and spent much of that time doing the unglamorous but important work of getting the country ready for the euro. When Croatia finally

Trump’s letter to Norway pretty much sums it up: “Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace…” The US President sent that out along with several ultimatums demanding the US annex Greenland. Europe is

The current Vice President of the European Central Bank is Luis de Guindos of Spain, who has been serving in the role since June 2018 but will step down in May and the political wrangling for a replacement is ongoing. A Eurogroup meeting is underway and some reports say the next ECB vie president is

Headlines: Silver jumps to a new all-time high as Trump threatens tariffs over Greenland Nasdaq futures extend losses as Trump declares trade war over Greenland. What’s next? Another start to the week, another one with Trump making the headlines Trump and TACO: Will it be different this time? One last chance to preserve the old

Monday starts quietly, with the U.S. observing a bank holiday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day but Canada will get its inflation data prints. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y, and the unemployment rate. Wednesday brings inflation data from the U.K. while Thursday Australia will publish

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver jumped into a new all-time high today following Trump’s escalation over Greenland. In fact, the US President threatened to impose 10% tariffs starting on February 1 on the UK, France, Germany and a few other European countries unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs will rise to 25% from

We may not see the same people in the classic photo above, but the situation speaks to the same kind of mood as we approach perhaps the biggest WEF event ever. Yes, it is that time of the year again. Global politics will take center stage and all eyes are on Davos as US president

Trump on Greenland, the bluster continues: says “now is the time, it will be done” South Korea banks signal modest credit easing as debt curbs persist China factory output accelerates as retail sales and investment lag – recap China Q4 GDP slows to three-year low despite hitting 2025 growth target China home prices fall again

Globex has reopened for trade for the (holiday impacted) week: ES (S&P 500 e-mini futures) gapped 0.8% lower NQ (Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures) gapped lower by 1.1% US Fed Fund futures are up a couple of ticks As I am sure you know by know if you follow along with us here each Monday, early

Over the weekend, Trump announced that Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland would face a 10% tariff from February 1, rising to 25% from June 1, unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. Trump is obsessed with Greenland citing national security reasons. According to him, if the US

KEY POINTS: US Dollar weakened across the board on the latest Trump’s trade war Japanese Yen found support from more intense verbal intervention and rate hike expectations USD/JPY bounced from a major trendline, now at crossroads. FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar weakened across the board to start the week following Trump’s escalation over Greenland.

She is making it official now as she announces that she will be calling a snap election on 23 January. That is when the next ordinary Diet session takes place, in which she will dissolve the lower house of parliament. Takaichi also adds that she will be asking for a mandate to continue as prime

The US dollar is at the lows of the day across most of the foreign exchange market. The possibility of a fresh trade war is coming into focus as the US President grows increasingly erratic in insisting the US annex Greenland. That’s setting up a battle with the EU and the potential for a financial

As a reminder, the World Economic Forum (WEF) is taking place in Davos this week. The event starts today until Friday but most of what we’ll be seeing on the agenda and on the sidelines are likely to take place from tomorrow onwards. You can check out the highlights of the agenda from earlier here:

Japan household inflation expectations ease slightly but remain elevated, BOJ survey shows Summary: One-year inflation expectations ease but remain very high Households expect prices to rise 11.6% on average over next year Long-term inflation expectations remain elevated Slight softening offers limited reassurance for BOJ Inflation psychology still deeply entrenched Japanese households continue to expect prices

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. There are some large ones but nothing that should be too impactful, given how the state of play is developing in the major currencies space. The Japanese yen remains in focus amid intervention risks as traders continue

Summary: UK asking prices rise 2.8% m/m, biggest January jump on record Prices now 0.5% higher y/y after recent weakness Housing supply at highest seasonal level since 2014 Confidence improves after budget uncertainty fades Affordability pressures still limit upside UK asking prices recorded their strongest rise for this time of year on record, signalling a

Will not comment on forex levels But will take appropriate action if needed Still examining source of revenues to fund consumption tax cut Have to be mindful of movements in forex, interest rates in considering revenues to fund consumption tax cut Will keep an eye out on speculative forex moves, ready to take necessary action

I popped up the data earlier: China data: Q4 GDP 4.5% y/y (expected 4.4%), Dec retail sales +0.9% y/y (expected 1.2%) See the screenshot above for the short summary of the main headline data points. Follow up on the GDP data is here: China Q4 GDP slows to three-year low despite hitting 2025 growth target

Prior +2.1% Core CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% The key statistic here is core annual inflation, which continues to hold above the 2% threshold for now. As such, that will keep the ECB sidelined in waiting on their next potential policy move. As mentioned before, the main sticking point at this stage

Summary: New home prices fall 0.4% m/m, 2.7% y/y in December Annual decline fastest in five months Majority of cities continue to record price falls Secondary market weakness persists across all tiers Property investment and sales remain deeply negative China’s December housing data point to a stubborn property slump that continues to weigh on confidence

Prior was 2.2% Inflation m/m -0.2% vs +0.1% prior BOC core 2.8% vs 2.9% prior BOC core m/m -0.4% vs -0.1% prior Core CPI % m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% prior CPI median +2.5% vs +2.8% expected CPI trim +2.7% vs +2.8% expected CPI common +2.8% vs 2.8% prior Ex gasoline +3.0% vs +2.6% prior The

Crypto markets continue to deliver a mix of regulatory developments, institutional experimentation, and long-awaited project launches, highlighting how digital assets are advancing on multiple fronts at once. One of the more notable policy-driven stories comes from South Asia. Pakistan Explores Cross-Border Payments Using World Liberty’s USD1 Pakistan has signed an agreement with a firm connected

Introduction: What Is a Broker? A broker is a person or company that helps traders and investors connect with financial markets. They make it possible for you to buy and sell things like shares, currencies, commodities, or other financial products. Brokers act as intermediaries, helping individual traders access large financial markets and liquidity providers. Today,

This is already shaping up to be Spain’s worst rail crash in more than a decade. For some context, the incident involved carriages on a Madrid-bound train that derailed and crossed over to the opposite tracks, colliding with an oncoming train in Adamuz on Sunday evening. The death toll is “not yet final”, according to

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar weakened across the board to start the week following Trump’s escalation over Greenland. In fact, the US President threatened to impose 10% tariffs starting on February 1 on the UK, France, Germany and a few other European countries unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs will

US futures trade on Globex will be disrupted for the Martin Luther King Jr. hoiliday on January 19. See the (Partial) Screenshot from the CME holiday calendar. Times are Chicago time. More detail here ALL US stock exchanges, such as the NYSE and NASDAQ are closed. Bond markets will also be closed. This article was

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq futures opened lower today following Trump’s escalation over Greenland. In fact, the US President threatened to impose 10% tariffs starting on February 1 on the UK, France, Germany and a few other European countries unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs will rise to 25% from June 1

The latest tariffs threat from US president Trump further exacerbates uncertainty with regards to trade policy. And it also shows that nothing is set in stone when it comes to any “trade deal” that has been struck. As a reminder, Trump threatened the EU with additional tariffs over the weekend unless “a deal is reached

Summary: Q4 GDP slows to 4.5% y/y, weakest in three years Full-year 2025 growth hits 5.0% target Export strength offsets weak domestic demand Property slump and deflation drag on confidence Structural imbalances remain key risk China met its 2025 growth target, but a sharp Q4 slowdown highlights rising dependence on exports amid weak domestic demand.

Just posting this data, I’ll be back with more separately on this. Machinery Orders (YoY) (Nov) -6.4% expected +4.9%, prior +12.5% (MoM) (Nov) -11.0% expected -5.1%, prior 7.0% — Private sector machinery orders (excluding ship and power equipment) A guide to business investment (capex) for the months ahead (6 to 9 months out) This article

Risk has taken a hit, as has the US dollar after the news over the weekend of Trump promising higher tariffs again and Europe assessing retaliation Earlier: Monday open indicative forex prices, 19 Jan 2026. ‘Risk’ lower on Trump’s latest trade war EU calls emergency summit as Trump escalates Greenland tariff threat. Euro a little

Noting the data, I’ll be back separately with more on all this. Gross Domestic Product for Q4 2025 4.5% y/y is a beat y/y and q/q expected 4.4%, prior 4.8% 1.2% q/q expected 1.0%, prior 1.1% December 2025 data: Retail Sales 0.9% y/y expected 1.2%, prior 1.3% Industrial Production 5.2% y/y expected 5.0%, prior 4.8%

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we only have the final Eurozone CPI report. This is not a market-moving release given that the market pays more attention to the Flash report. It’s rare to see big deviations from the preliminary numbers, so the reaction will likely be muted. Today’s session (and the next days really)

Gold has skyrocketed to a new all time high above US$4680. The safe haven bid is in response to Trump announcing his plan for more tariffs as his dispute with the rest of the world over Greenland escalates. ICYMI: The European Union is stepping up efforts to contain a rapidly escalating trade dispute with Washington

The latest post from Trump on his social media app: NATO has been telling Denmark, for 20 years, that “you have to get the Russian threat away from Greenland.” Unfortunately, Denmark has been unable to do anything about it. Now it is time, and it will be done!!! President Donald J. Trump The threats and

It’s looking rough out there as geopolitical tensions now spill over to economic risks. As Trump raises the stakes on Greenland, he is threatening the EU with fresh 10% tariffs that will be enacted on 1 February. And if things keep this way, he will raise them further to 25% starting 1 June. That is

The start of the 2026 has been all about US president Trump’s threats and actions so far. In the first week, it was the invasion of Venezuela. Last week, it was the attack on the Fed’s independence and escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran. This week, tariffs are once again back in the picture as Trump

Summary: Japan election boosts chances of consumption tax cut LDP and opposition back temporary removal of food tax 10-year JGB yield hits highest level since 1999 Inflation pressures intensify political push for relief Fiscal risks worry bond investors Japan election risks revive sales tax cut debate, rattling bond markets Japan’s looming snap general election is

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

South Korean banks are edging toward easier credit in early 2026, but tight household debt controls keep the shift cautious. Summary: Banks’ lending sentiment turns positive for first time in a year Mortgage and corporate lending conditions ease modestly Household debt controls remain firmly in place Potential support for KOSPI financials and cyclicals Won impact

This will be in relation to the snap election expected. Just noting this. Earlier: Japan election raises odds of sales tax cut, bond yields jump This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

At least 10 people were killed and more than 25 seriously injured after two high-speed trains derailed near Córdoba, close to Adamuz, on January 18. The collision halted high-speed rail services between Madrid and Andalucía in Spain. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China December 2025 new home prices -0.4% m/m prior -0.4% -2.7% y/y prior -2.4% China December 2025 used home prices -0.7% m/m prior -0.7% The falls continue. It’s a vicious circle for home prices in China, why buy now when prices are expected to keep falling. — The main data from China is still to

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. The USD up a little on Trump’s latest tariff trade war escalation. I’ll have more to come on this separately. This article

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

This snapshot is from the investingLive economic data calendar. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. The data of

Summary: Trump announced that Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland would face a 10% tariff from February 1, rising to 25% from June 1, unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. EU to convene emergency leaders’ summit amid U.S. tariff threats over Greenland Trump announces 10% tariffs from

Trump: I may want to keep Hassett where he is Canada strikes tariff deal with China on agriculture and electric vehicles Powell will be tempted to stay as a Governor beyond May, former Fed vice chair says Fed’s Bowman: Should be ready to cut rates again amid job market risks US industrial production rises more

The New York Times is out with an article on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell: Powell cultivated deep Congressional ties anticipating political backlash. GOP Senators Tillis and Thune publicly backed the Fed Chair, support went beyond what Powell expected Even critic Kevin Cramer credits Powell’s relationship-building skills Trump may rethink his nominee choice amid Senate pushback

The Fed’s Jefferson is out with a speech late in the day but he isn’t giving much away: Some upside risks remain, but expect inflation to return to path back to 2% Inflation somewhat elevated, rise in core good prices inconsistent with return to 2% inflation Cautiously optimistic for 2026, though face risks to both

Oil prices are under some pressure after Trump writes: I greatly respect the fact that all scheduled hangings, which were to take place yesterday (Over 800 of them), have been cancelled by the leadership of Iran. Thank you! Iran is a brutal regime that’s quickly sentenced people to death for protesting poor economic conditions. It’s

We haven’t heard much from Bowman since she was ruled out as a candidate for Fed Chair. US economy has been resilient Wage growth consistent with 2% inflation Fed has made considerable progress in lowering inflation Underlying inflation levels closer to Fed’s 2% target Says she is concerned about labor market fragility Firms may start

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW After Wednesday, it looked like US-Iran tensions were finally subsiding following a comment from Trump where he said that the killing in Iran was stopping and that there were no plans for executions. That triggered a sharp drop in oil prices because Trump threatened “strong actions” in case the Iranian regime killed protestors.

Trump seems to rule out Hassett as Fed chair in comments. Trump said that Hassett was good on TV today and that he “may want to keep him where he is”. He added that “we’ll see how it works out”. Some Republican Senators have expressed reservations about Hassett because he’s so close to Trump, so

ICYMI from yesterday: China new bank lending stumbles once again in 2025 PBOC to cut rates on various structural policy tools by 25 bps The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely

Spot prices for lithium have experienced significant volatility to begin 2026, with Scotiabank analysts characterizing the recent surge as disconnected from underlying market fundamentals. Domestic Chinese lithium carbonate prices have risen 34% year-to-date, while spodumene prices have increased by 46%. The rapid rise has seen lithium carbonate move from approximately $18,000 per metric tonne to

Prior was 39 Current single-family home sales 41 vs 42 prior Prospective buyers 23 vs 26 prior Home sales expectations over the next six months 49 vs 52 prior In the past month, US 30-year yields have ticked 5-7 basis points higher but there have been signs of buyers wading in via the latest existing

Sector Overview Today’s market shows a robust performance in the technology and semiconductor sectors, with companies like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) leading the gains. Nvidia soared +1.26%, while AMD saw an impressive rise of +2.16%. The semiconductor boom is further bolstered by Micron Technology (MU), climbing +6.55%. On the other side of

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 48 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 43 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 1 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end BoC: 10 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 mark. It’s not the largest of expiries on the board for today but it is a decent-sized one at least. That could help to keep price action a bit

Prior +1.1% HICP +1.2% vs +1.2% y/y prelim Prior +1.1% The changes in headline annual inflation is light with core annual inflation keeping stable at 1.7% in December. On average, Italian consumer price inflation is seen growing by 1.5% in 2025. And that’s a step up from the 1.0% back in 2024. That being said,

Canada & China are moving to rebuild ties, eye closer cooperation in agriculture & energy MUFG sees modest rise in India bond yields as RBI holds rates, near end of easing cycle Yen rose as intervention warnings meet talk of earlier BOJ rate hikes (April hike risk) Japan fin min “Won’t exclude any options” ,

The final candidate for Fed Chairman met with President Trump this week and maybe he still has a chance. The President is notoriously fickle and has a flair for the dramatic so maybe the final impression was the best one. Fox Business reports that the Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock had

New Zealand December 2025 Food Price Index -0.3% m/m (prior -0.4%) and +4.0% y/y. Earlier: New Zealand December 2025 Manufacturing PMI (prior 51.4) NZD gained a little on the PMI data and not doing a lot on this data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary: DeepMind CEO says China’s AI models are only months behind U.S. counterparts Rapid progress challenges views that China remains far behind in AI Chinese firms have shown strong catch-up but limited frontier innovation Export controls still constrain China’s access to top-tier AI chips Longer-term divergence may emerge as U.S. infrastructure scales faster China just

KEY POINTS: Gold remains stuck in a tight consolidation awaiting a breakout Mixed signals from US data leads to uncertainty on future Fed interest rates path Fed members are keeping a neutral stance with no clear hint on the timing for the next move US-Iran tensions remain in the spotlight Traders are still awaiting the

Introduction: What Is MT5? MetaTrader 5, often called MT5, is a trading platform created by MetaQuotes in 2010. It is the next version after MT4. While MT4 was mainly made for trading forex (foreign exchange), MT5 allows trading in many different markets such as shares, commodities, indices, futures, and cryptocurrencies, depending on the broker you

NASDAQ Technical Analysis Today (16 January 2026): Why Yesterday’s Late Selloff Did Not Break the Bullish Structure I’ll start out with a medium term view of the market, the way I see it, via this Nasdaq technical analysis video from today. During our analysis, we always look at Nasdaq futures (NQ, not NDX). Traders looking

The good news continues to roll in for the US economy as December industrial production rose 0.4%, beating the 0.1% consensus. The November reading was also boosted to +0.4% from +0.2%. With that, capacity utilization rose to 76.3% from 76.0%. Manufacturing production rose by 0.2% compared to -0.2% expected. The November manufacturing number was also

Summary: Retail investors have made silver the most crowded commodity trade, Reuters reports Nearly $922m flowed into silver ETFs over the past 30 days, led by iShares Silver Trust Silver prices have surged above $90/oz, setting multiple record highs Silver mining equities have also soared, with related indices up over 200% y/y Some strategists warn

Summary: ECB sees no near-term case for changing interest rates if baseline holds Current policy is expected to anchor rates for several years Lane warns Fed policy missteps could pose external risks Dollar volatility and U.S. inflation are key watch points Euro zone growth improving cyclically but structurally constrained The European Central Bank sees no

This is arguably the final piece of the puzzle in concluding the pivot towards monetary policy normalisation for the BOJ. However, it is one that is going to take almost forever to complete. In fact, none of us will be around to even witness the completion. And that is if things go according to plan

The Japanese yen remains the most volatile among the major currencies today with USD/JPY holding a larger range after the downdraft earlier in Asia trading. The pair hit a low of 157.97 after some added verbal intervention by Japan finance minister Katayama here. That before rebounding to 158.30 levels now, still well below the earlier

How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? Indian Rupee targeting new record lows as RBI’s interventions continue to fail No big surprises expected from the BOJ at next week’s meeting – Barclays Gold remains stuck in a tight consolidation as traders await new catalysts for next move Italy December final CPI +1.2%

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday following strong US Jobless Claims data. Traders responded by erasing the dovish bets seen after the softer than expected US core inflation data. The total easing by year-end fell to 48 bps compared to 54 bps before the release. Fed members continue to support the current patient

Canada and China are re-setting ties after leaders Mark Carney and Xi Jinping met in Beijing. The leaders agreed to lower tariffs on each others products in a move that could boost bi-lateral trade but risks irking the United States. The main deal dealt with near-term tariff levels and saw both sides dropping tariffs: Canada

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the final Italian inflation data which is not going to change anything for the market or the ECB. We got reports late yesterday from Fox News saying that US air, land and sea military assets were moving to the Middle

Have repeatedly said that recent forex moves are not reflecting fundamentals Joint statement between US and Japan can be interpreted as saying intervention to counter forex moves out of line with fundamentals is allowed Monetary falls under the jurisdiction of the BOJ My dialogue with BOJ governor Ueda has been very good Have not received

US initial jobless claims 198K versus 215K estimate. US January Philly Fed +12.6 vs -1.0 expected NY Fed manufacturing index for January +7.70 vs +1.0 expected Fed’s Paulson: Comfortable holding rates; labor risks “a little bit higher” vs inflation US and Taiwan clinch trade deal that will lower tariffs to 15% “The economy has two

Earlier: PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9722 – Reuters estimate Thursday: China new bank lending stumbles once again in 2025 PBOC to cut rates on various structural policy tools by 25 bps PBOC injects 86.7bn yuan through 7-day reverse repos at an unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written

The firm expects the BOJ to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% in the first monetary policy meeting to start the new year. They also expect the central bank to stick to its existing forward guidance, offering up no major changes in that regard. Barclays notes that the BOJ should still continue to reaffirm

Summary: The White House says semiconductor tariffs announced this week were only “phase one” The initial 25% levy targeted a narrow group of advanced AI chips Further tariff announcements may follow pending talks with countries and companies The move keeps pressure on global chipmakers and U.S. trading partners Markets now face renewed uncertainty over broader

Prior +2.3% HICP +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y prelim Prior +2.6% In terms of headline annual inflation, the December reading is the lowest for the year and the softest reading since September 2024. However, consumer prices in Germany rose by an average of 2.2% in 2025. And that matches up to the 2024 average reading, which

Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama delivered a clear warning to currency markets, reiterating Tokyo’s readiness to act against excessive yen moves: “Intervention included as an option in U.S.-Japan agreement.” “I have said ready to take decisive action without ruling out any options.” “Won’t exclude any options” when asked about the possibility of U.S.–Japan joint intervention. The

Summary: China is removing high-speed traders’ servers from exchange data centres Futures exchanges in Shanghai and Guangzhou are enforcing the changes Domestic and global trading firms will be affected Latency advantages for high-frequency traders will be reduced Move aligns with broader push for market stability China has moved to rein in high-speed and algorithmic trading

EC Markets, a multi-regulated global trading provider trusted by traders worldwide, has released the teaser for Hold or Trade, its new creative collaboration with Premier League champions Liverpool FC. The teaser offers a bold first look at a campaign built on a simple but powerful idea: the decisions that define every outcome. Whether it’s a

Mind you, this has been an ongoing issue since late 2023 already. And when the ONS could not figure out how to improve the data reliability, they opted to try and revamp the whole Labour Force Survey (LFS). In 2024, they announced that they would be transitioning to a Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS). That

Summary: West Virginia bill would allow up to 10% of treasury assets into metals and digital assets Only bitcoin currently meets the bill’s $750bn market-cap requirement Stablecoins would require explicit regulatory approval Similar proposals have emerged across the U.S., with limited success so far Political support for the bill remains uncertain West Virginia bill opens

Summary: Canada and China are seeking to reset ties through a new strategic partnership PM Mark Carney says cooperation could deliver “historic” economic gains Focus areas include agriculture, energy, agri-food and finance Canada is diversifying trade amid tensions with the United States China is also looking to counter U.S. tariff pressure through new partnerships Canada

Summary: New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI rose to 56.1 in December, the highest since December 2021 All five sub-indices expanded, led by a sharp rise in new orders and production Employment returned to growth after earlier declines during 2025 Seasonal demand helped, but confidence, exports, and infrastructure work also supported activity BNZ sees upside risk to

Summary: Fed’s Daly says monetary policy is “in a good place” to respond to economic shifts Incoming data show solid growth, stabilising labour market and easing inflation Fed cut rates by 75bps last year to offset labour-market cooling Uncertainty remains around both inflation and employment risks Daly signals preference for patience and deliberate calibration U.S.

Summary: MUFG sees India’s 10-year yield edging higher through 2026 Bank forecasts 6.60% by March and 6.75% by year-end RBI seen at end of rate-cut cycle, repo rate held at 5.25% Liquidity injections via bonds and FX swaps to continue USD/INR likely driven more by global factors than local yields India’s benchmark government bond yields

Summary: The yen rose after Finance Minister Katayama reiterated intervention remains an option Reuters reports some BOJ policymakers see scope for earlier hikes, with April in play BOJ expected to hold at 0.75% in January, but debate on timing is active Weak yen is seen inside BOJ as adding to broadening inflation pressure BOJ may

Summary: Trump expected to announce emergency power auction on Friday Tech firms would be forced to fund new power plants for data centres PJM would run the auction, potentially backing $15bn of new generation Aim is to curb electricity price rises hitting households Data-centre demand seen as key driver of grid strain President Donald Trump

Not much on the data agenda to move markets. The NZ FPI can give the kiwi $ a bit of a wiggle sometimes, but usually fleeting. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary: Long-running U.S.–Iran tensions remain a key geopolitical risk factor Fox News reports at least one U.S. aircraft carrier is moving to the Middle East U.S. military said to be preparing a range of options regarding Iran Iran says it seeks neither escalation nor confrontation Tehran warns any aggression will prompt a strong, lawful response

In an interview with the WSJ, Philly Fed President Anna Paulson explicitly stated she is “comfortable holding interest rates steady” at the upcoming January 27-28 meeting. She also shares the prevailing view that there is no immediate hurry to cut again, something that’s implied by the market with pricing at 40% through May. She believes

Various reports say the US and Taiwan have clinched a trade pact to cut tariffs to 15% in exchange for a $500 billion Taiwanese commitment. For the money, half of it will be direct investment in US manufacturing and half of it credit guarantees for other investments in the US. The deal is poised to

Sometimes a Fed official drops a line so good that you have to take a moment to appreciate it. Here is Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin: The economy has two engines: AI and the rich That’s the kind of clarity and succinctness that really pulls it all together. It speaks to the two investment themes

Shares of Boeing traded at a two-year high of $248.75 today as the company shows signs of getting on track after years of disappointment and executive turnover. Bernstein today raised its Boeing target to $298 from $277. They highlighted that free cash flow will ramp up to $9-10 billion annually in the coming years against

When moves tend to go parabolic, the profit-taking naturally can be swift and sharp. And that’s what we’re seeing with silver after hitting highs of over $93 overnight before a quick plunge in Asia. There is some light buying seen closer to $86.50 for now but key near-term support will only come closer to $85,

I’ve been wondering these days why US stocks didn’t rally on the softer than expected US core inflation and yesterday I think I got the answer. The upside has been capped by US-Iran tensions. In fact, after the initial pop following the CPI release, US stocks started to slowly edging lower and eventually the bearish

That’s a bummer and it underscores that credit appetite remains lacking in China as lawmakers and policymakers struggle to bolster domestic demand conditions for the most part. After posting its first annual decline in new lending in 13 years in 2024, China is now seeing back-to-back drop in new bank lending after another fall in

The PPI is holding at levels still consistent with further Bank of Japan rate hikes. Rate hikes are not an urgent matter for the BoJ right now though. The BOJ’s next quarterly review of growth and inflation forecasts is due at the next policy meeting on January 22-23. Wholesale inflation slowed in the year to

The Chinese central bank announced that it is to release a batch of monetary and financial measures, which will include interest rate cuts on structural policy tools. Among which, there will be a cut to one-year relending facilities to 1.25% from 1.50% previously. For some context, the move here is in response to this: China

That’s at least some positive news that will shelve stagflation fears for a while. But as price pressures continue to be an issue as we get into the new year, the risks will still remain as economic conditions remain more tepid. For some context, the German economy contracted in 2023 and 2024 by 0.9% and

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices plunged late yesterday following a comment from Trump where he said that the killing in Iran was stopping and that there were no plans for executions. For some context, Trump has been threatening “strong actions” in case the Iranian regime killed protestors. We’ve been getting reports of mass killings and executions

Prior was -8.8 Details: Employment: +9.7 vs +12.9 last month Prices paid: +46.9 vs +43.6 last month New orders: +14.4 vs +5.0 last month Shipments: vs +3.2 last month Unfilled orders: vs -6.2 last month Inventories: vs +6.5 last month Average workweek: vs +14.7 last month Six-months from now indicators: 6 month index: vs +41.6

Bloomberg reports that the BoJ officials are paying more attention than before on the weakening yen and its potential impact on inflation. According to people familiar with the matter, this might have implication for future rate hikes even though the central bank is likely to hold rates steady next week. The odds of a rate

Summary: BOK hold was unanimous, Rhee says FX volatility driven by geopolitics and overseas investment AI-related foreign stock buying cited as key won drag Govt to announce on U.S. trade deal and FX market later Weak won can lift inflation but crisis risk seen low; “ample dollars” reassurance Rhee Chang-yong said the Bank of Korea’s

Fed moved to slowly to combat inflation in pandemic There’s a lot of blame to go around for pandemic inflation surge Services inflation not yet under control Best thing about recent inflation data shows possible waning of tariff impact Expects to see Fed rate cuts this year, but needs data to affirm outlook Rates can

BOJ seen holding rates through March, lifting them to 1% or higher by September, maybeJuly BOJ Ueda reiterates sustained wage–price cycle, signals further rate hikes if f’casts hold China hails Carney visit as symbolic as Canada seeks to steady relations U.S. Senate delays crypto market structure bill amid industry and political rifts BOK’s Rhee warns

Sector Overview The current market heatmap reveals a robust performance in the semiconductor sector, with standout stocks like NVDA and AMD posting impressive gains of 2.02% and 3.27% respectively. As advanced technologies continue to drive demand, this sector appears poised for further growth. On the contrary, the energy sector is facing a downturn, with companies

New executive hires signal bold growth ambitions OneRoyal is pleased to announce the appointment of Marilena Iakovou as Chief Marketing Officer (CMO), effective immediately. Strategic Appointment to Drive Growth and Brand Leadership With over two decades of marketing, communications and fintech leadership experience, Marilena joins OneRoyal at a pivotal moment, as the company accelerates its

Will US President Trump start a war with Iran? That’s the big question oil traders are struggling with. Yesterday, a report from Reuters suggested that attacks were imminent and that was combined with the UK closing its embassy and evacuating staff. It led to a jump in oil prices to the highest since October but

January 2026 – HFM, the global multi-asset broker, has announced the launch of its new Loyalty Program, which offers all new and existing clients the chance to claim extraordinary rewards just by trading.A supercar, luxury vacations, high-end electronic devices and more are waiting for traders as they level up from Rookie to Legend. Everyone who

Prior was -3.90 Full report here Details: New orders 6.6 vs 0.0 prior Shipments 16.3 vs -5.7 prior Employment -9.0 vs 7.3 prior Average employee workweek -5.4 versus 3.5 prior Prices paid 42.8 vs 37.6 prior Prices received 14.4 vs 19.8 prior Unfilled orders -8.2 vs -14.9 prior Delivery times 0.0 vs -5.9 prior Inventories

Japan MOF faces a tall order in getting any yen intervention to stick – MUF US-Iran tensions have been capping US stocks all along: Trump’s comment triggered a rally Precious metals regain some poise after sharp drop earlier in the day BoJ rate hike odds rise as the central bank is said to focus more

Initial Jobless Claims Initial claims: 198,000, ↓ 9,000 from the prior week (revised to 207,000) Prior week revision: ↓ 1,000 (from 208,000 to 207,000) 4-week moving average: 205,000, ↓ 6,500 on the week Trend signal: Lowest 4-week average since January 20, 2024, highlighting continued labor-market resilience Continuing Claims Insured unemployment rate: 1.2%, unchanged Continuing claims:

The statement from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Sunday night was remarkable and continues to resonate. The US Department of Justice — undoubtedly directed by the President — opened an investigation into the Chairman of the Federal Reserve in an attempt to coerce him into exiting the institution and giving the President full control over

NASDAQ Technical Analysis for Today: Bulls Regain Control After the Washout, but Key Levels Matter The NASDAQ has gone through a sharp and unsettling pullback yesterday, raising questions among traders and investors about whether the broader uptrend is losing steam, and maybe the new Trump tarriff on chips is going to startle the market. Even

There is arguably just one to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for GBP/USD at the 1.3450 level. It isn’t one that might factor into play but if we do see an upside extension to the daily range in the session ahead, the expiries could

Prior +0.9% HICP +0.7% vs +0.7% y/y prelim Prior +0.8% There are no changes to the initial estimates but while headline annual inflation showed a decline, core annual inflation actually reflected a marginal increase in December. The latter was seen at 1.1% in the final month of 2025, up from 1.0% in November the month

The market mood is keeping steadier in European morning trade with equities holding calmer while precious metals are bouncing back quite modestly on the day. Of note, silver is down just 2% now in climbing back above $91 and that is well off the earlier low of $86.42 in Asia trading. The volatile swings are

Summary: Ueda says wage–price mechanism likely to be sustained BOJ to keep raising rates if economy and prices track forecasts Normalisation framed as smoothing achievement of inflation target Message aligns with gradual, data-dependent tightening path Market impact modest; focus remains on timing and pace Ueda sticks to the script: sustained wage–price cycle and further BOJ

Summary: RICS sees sales expectations turn significantly more positive House price balance steady, but activity remains weak Rate-cut expectations and fiscal clarity lift housing sentiment UK climbs to third in global FDI rankings, McKinsey says AI and clean energy dominate inflows, manufacturing lags Britain’s housing market showed tentative signs of stabilisation in December, with surveyors

These are the times that silver bulls have been waiting a generation for. The parabolic move continues as it has risen another $5.66 to $92.60/oz today, a fresh all-time high. The one-year chart is a sight to behold as it traces out a classic parabolic move. With $100 now nearby, that’s likely to act as

MUFG notes that the latest rise in USD/JPY this week paints a similar picture to what we saw back in July 2024, when Tokyo last intervened in the market to arrest the yen decline. That as we also start to approach similar levels, considering the over ¥5 trillion in intervention back then helped to draw

KEY POINTS: Japanese Yen rebounds following more intense verbal intervention Japanese PM Takaichi confirms the intention of dissolving parliament and calling snap elections US Dollar remains supported amid potential focus on US-Iran tensions Fed members support current patient stance with rate cuts expected later in the year FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar continues to

Summary: Trump signs semiconductor proclamation citing national security concerns 25% tariff imposed on select advanced computing chips (H200, MI325X cited) Exemptions carved out for U.S. tech supply needs and domestic buildout-related imports White House flags broader semiconductor and derivative-product tariffs may follow Sits alongside the week’s critical-minerals security push and reshoring agenda President Donald Trump

Prior -0.1% GDP +1.4% vs +1.1% y/y expected Prior +1.1% The more detailed breakdown as per the following: Services +0.3% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior -0.3% Industrial output +1.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior +1.1%; revised to +1.3% Manufacturing output +2.1% vs +0.5% m/m expected Prior +0.5%; revised to +0.4% Construction output -1.3% vs 0.0%

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight was the monthly UK GDP report. The data beat expectations across the board but didn’t change anything for the BoE as the central bank’s focus remains mostly on inflation. Looking ahead, we get a few low tier releases like the final French and Spanish CPI data

Summary: China calls Carney’s visit pivotal and symbolic Beijing signals willingness to rebuild trust with Canada Ottawa strikes cooperative, forward-looking tone Visit hints at tentative reset after strained relations Near-term symbolism outweighs immediate policy substance China and Canada struck a conciliatory tone on bilateral relations as China’s foreign minister described Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%. The previous close was 6.9739. PBOC injects 179.3bn yuan through 7-day reverse repos at an unchanged rate of

The oil market has been hit by heavy selling after Trump said that he’s been told the killing in Iran is stopping and that there are no plans for executions. WTI crude oil is down more than $2 on the headlines. In a separate (and less impactful) report, the US said additional sales of Venezuelan

Summary: Yen neared 160 on Wednesday as “Takaichi trade” stays dominant MOF and U.S. rhetoric triggers pullback from highs Authorities escalate intervention warnings Fiscal-policy expectations keep pressure on yen Equity inflows reinforce currency hedging flows The so-called “Takaichi trade” is expected to remain firmly in place heading into Japan’s snap Lower House election next month,

Prior +3.0% HICP +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y prelim Prior +3.2% There are no changes to the preliminary estimates for Spain’s headline inflation numbers in December. It reaffirms that price pressures rebounded back during the latter half of the year, with core prices also holding above the 2% threshold. Of note, core annual inflation was 2.6%

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Summary: Two-thirds of Japan firms expect economy to suffer from frayed China ties Nearly half report or anticipate direct business impact Rare-earth supply risk flagged as critical vulnerability 43% may reassess China-linked business if tensions persist Majority back BOJ’s latest rate hike, citing yen risks More than two-thirds of Japanese companies expect the domestic economy

Summary: Senate Banking Committee cancels crypto bill markup Coinbase withdraws support, exposing deeper divisions Stablecoin rewards and ethics rules key sticking points Bill aimed to define U.S. crypto regulatory framework Bitcoin trades slightly lower on renewed uncertainty The U.S. Senate Banking Committee has cancelled its planned markup of a sweeping crypto market-structure bill, delaying what

Summary: U.S. calls emergency UN Security Council meeting on Iran Trump advisers signal preference for swift action if required Officials concede no guarantee of rapid Iran collapse Oil prices dip as immediate escalation risk eases Geopolitical risk premium partially unwinds Oil prices edged lower as markets weighed fresh geopolitical headlines on Iran that pointed to

Summary: BOJ expected to hold rates steady through March July seen as most likely timing for next hike 76% expect rates at 1% or higher by September Median terminal rate forecast lifted to 1.5% Political backdrop adds caution to BOJ timing The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its key policy rate on

Summary: Treasury says Bessent flagged undesirability of excessive FX volatility Bessent stressed “sound” monetary policy formulation and communication Messaging aligns with G7 principles on market-determined rates, with room to counter disorderly moves Context: yen weakness linked to political uncertainty and fiscal-stimulus expectations Market read-through: reinforces verbal-intervention framework; actual trend still hinges on rates and policy

He chimes in with some views on the US administration’s continued attack on the Federal Reserve in saying that: ECB should stand alert as US administration attack on the Fed raises new risks to the economic outlook The attack on the Fed is something out of “emerging market politics” It adds to a list of

Summary: BOK holds base rate at 2.5%, in line with forecasts Exports seen staying favourable; semiconductors a key growth tailwind Bank flags upside risks to 2026 growth outlook Dovish “room for rate cuts” language removed from statement Warns on Seoul housing risks and heightened FX volatility; notes won weakness drivers The Bank of Korea kept

Summary: Venezuelan oil exports to China set to drop sharply from February Only three shipments passed the U.S. blockade since mid-December China took 75% of Venezuela’s oil exports in 2025 Large volumes still in transit, easing near-term supply stress Chinese teapot refiners likely hardest hit Posting this as an ICYMI. Venezuelan oil exports to China

Summary: Trump says he spoke with Venezuela’s interim president on oil, minerals and security U.S.–Venezuela partnership framed as stabilisation and recovery effort Oil sold off sharply after Trump comments easing Iran execution fears Venezuela supply expectations added to bearish oil sentiment Markets focused on reduced geopolitical risk premium President Donald Trump said he held a

It has been a deluge of Fedspeak today but it hasn’t provided much clarity. The market is pricing in just at 9% chance of a cut at the Jan 28 meeting as we head towards the blackout. For March it’s at 26% and for April it’s at 60%. , But if you’re looking for a

Summary: Trump orders Commerce and USTR to negotiate deals to reduce reliance on imported processed critical minerals White House flags foreign mineral processing as a national security vulnerability Section 232 authority invoked to monitor and potentially restrict imports Builds on earlier Bessent-led talks on securing mineral supply chains Signals tougher, security-driven U.S. trade posture ahead

US November retail sales +0.6% vs +0.4% expected US November PPI final demand Y/Y +3.0% vs +2.7% expected US Supreme Court doesn’t issue decision on tariffs Beige Book: Overall activity increased at slight-to-modest pace in most districts Fedspeak recap: Odds of a January or March rate cut dwindle EIA weekly US crude oil inventories +3391K

Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI), officially known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI), measures changes over time in the prices that domestic producers receive for the goods they sell. The index is compiled and published by the Bank of Japan, and is designed to capture price movements earlier in the supply chain than consumer-facing

Eight of 12 districts saw slight to modest growth Three saw no change One saw a slight decline Outlooks for future activity were mildly optimistic with most expecting slight to modest growth Prices grew at a moderate rate across large majority of districts The Federal Reserve’s January 2026 Beige Book indicates a marginal improvement in

Full year data out from China. 2025 yuan-denominated: Exports +6.1% y/y Imports +0.5% y/y Two-way trade value at 45.47 trln yuan, +3.8% y/y. A record high. Of more interest is the December trade trade, yet to re released. I’ll post separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The US dollar is trading mostly lower with the USDJPY the weakest (-0.34%). THe greenback is lower by 0.17% versus the GBP and down -0.10% versus the EUR. The changes versus the other currency pairs including the CHF, CAD, AUD and NZD are all within 0.10% from the closing levels yesterday. Tariffs? What tariffs. China’s

Prior was -3832K Gasoline +8977K vs +3565K exp Distillates -29K vs +512K exp That’s a mammoth gasoline build on top of another huge one last week. It will be tough to keep oil prices up with that much product in the system. Private oil inventories released late yesterday: Crude +5270K Gasoline +8230K Distillates +4340K Given

Nasdaq Futures Analysis Today: Calm Long-Term Structure, Tactical Pressure Short Term A comment on trading social media earlier today said the Nasdaq “looks startled.”That single sentence was enough to trigger a full orderFlow Intel review across the long-term, medium-term, and short-term structure of Nasdaq futures. The conclusion is nuanced, but important:there is no panic, no

Trade Tech Solutions Recognized as Leading Prop Firm Tech Provider The prop trading technology industry is rapidly consolidating. While many firms once built their own infrastructure, today’s founders realize that scalable growth demands smarter partnerships. Trade Tech Solutions has emerged as the trusted backbone for more than 70 prop firms – including multiple top 10

KEY POINTS: Soft US core inflation data pushed gold to new all-time highs Traders firmed up Fed’s rate cut expectations Gold remains supported amid strong tailwinds and lack of bearish catalysts US Supreme Court decision on tariffs could pose a risk in the short-term FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold extended the gains into new all-time highs yesterday

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: Will continue to raise interest rates if economic, prices development in line with forecast, wages and prices rise moderately Headline only, I’ll post more separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary China raises minimum margin requirement to 100% from 80% Reverses 2023 easing aimed at supporting markets Applies only to new margin contracts Authorities cite rising leverage and high liquidity Move signals pre-emptive financial stability focus China’s stock exchanges have moved to curb rising leverage, announcing a sharp increase in minimum margin requirements for new

A couple of headlines, should make export to China easier: US eases regulations on Nvidia H200 chip exports to China-Federal Register Us says before exports of Nvidia H200 chips to China, shipments will be reviewed by third-party testing lab to confirm technical AI capabilities –Commerce Department I’ll post more detail separately as it becomes available.

Summary: Reuters: drones hit two tankers in Black Sea Ships were bound for terminal loading most Kazakh crude Kazakhstan output down ~35% Jan 1–12 on constraints CPC exports continue via one mooring after prior damage War-risk insurance costs nearly doubled after strikes Reuters reported that drones struck two oil tankers in the Black Sea on

The US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs was potentially due today but four other decisions were rendered, and no word on tariffs. No other decision days have been announced for this week. The IEEPA is a 1977 law that gives the President broad powers to regulate commerce after declaring a national emergency. Historically, it’s been

It’s certainly an interesting one. It was among a barrage of comments in which you’d typically see Tokyo officials attempt to jawbone or verbally intervene with the Japanese yen currency. Katayama said that: Will take appropriate action against excessive forex moves without excluding any option Had deep talks on the matter with US Treasury secretary

The US stock market witnessed a notable downturn today, largely driven by declines in major technology stocks, while the financial sector exhibited pockets of resilience. The overall mood hints at caution among investors amidst evolving market conditions. 📉 Technology Sector: A Substantial Pullback Semiconductors: Chipmakers faced significant pressure. Nvidia (NVDA) dropped by 1.05%, while Advanced

Summary: Dimon says US economy remains resilient Labour market softer but not worsening materially Consumers still spending; businesses broadly healthy Tailwinds: fiscal support, deregulation, Fed policy Risks: geopolitics, sticky inflation, high asset prices Pasting as an ICYMI. JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon said the U.S. economy remains resilient even as labour market momentum cools,

Bitcoin Futures Analysis Today: How orderFlow Intel Maps Key Levels After Breakout and Consolidation While I’m still thinking back to my first bitcoin technical analysis of 2026, where I state my opinion that 100k is still open for the short term, I know that many of you crypto traders are looking at what will happen

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%. The previous close was 6.9795 PBOC injects 240.8bn yuan through 7-day reverse repos at an unchanged rate of

Prior was 0.0% (revised to -0.1%) Details: Ex-autos +0.5% vs +0.4% expected Prior ex autos +0.4% (revised to +0.2%) Ex autos and gas +0.4% vs +0.5% prior (revised to +0.4%) Control group +0.4% vs +0.4% expected Prior control +0.8% (revised to +0.6%) Retail sales y/y % vs +3.47% prior This is generally in-line on the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar weakened across the board yesterday following the soft US core inflation data but the initial moves were eventually faded and the greenback gained. It’s hard to explain such a price action but we got also renewed Trump’s threats against Iran following the US CPI report which weighed on the

Wall Street and US futures might be looking a bit more cautious but major indices in Europe are not feeling much anxiety in another solid open today. With European indices not being as tech heavy in general, AI valuation concerns are not something that is bugging investors all too much. The Nikkei paved the way

Inflation remains in a good place High uncertainty in the global environment does not appear to be reflected in current market pricing Geopolitical risks noticeably raises downside risks to growth We are facing a big chance in the world order with mounting geopolitical challenges Meanwhile, financial stability risks also remain elevated That as valuations are

Prior was +2.7% PPI M/M +0.2% vs 0.2% expected Prior +0.3% Core PPI Y/Y +3.0% vs +2.7% expected Prior +2.6% Core PPI M/M +0.0% vs +0.2% expected Prior +0.1% The BLS notes that the November increase in prices for final demand can be traced to a 0.9-percent advance in the index for final demand goods.

Hottest question of the crypto market now: Is the crypto bull run over?When prices dip, panic often sets in. However, seasoned investors know that bull runs rarely end overnight. Instead, they cool, weaken, and unwind systematically. To tell if bullrun is over you can’t rely only on your gut — you also need data. Be

Eyes will be on the US Supreme Court at 10 am ET (1500 GMT) as it delivers another decision. We don’t know whether today’s decision will be on tariffs or something else. The Supreme Court doesn’t schedule its decisions, it only announces that a decision on one of the cases before it will be delivered

Well, the US may have tried to ease the approval criteria for Nvidia H200 chip exports to China. But evidently, Beijing looks to be having none of that. Quite literally. The latest report here states that China customs authorities have told customs agents this week that Nvidia’s H200 artificial intelligence (AI) chips are not permitted

It looks like geopolitics is back on the menu as we look to the day ahead. From the man himself: “The United States needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security. It is vital for the Golden Dome that we are building. NATO should be leading the way for us to get it. IF WE

Summary: ANZ world commodity index down 2.1% m/m in December Dairy prices slide 5.3%; butter plunges 16.9% Meat and wool prices hit record for fourth month Strong NZD drags local currency index lower Commodity mix softens as NZ recovery begins New Zealand’s commodity price pulse weakened further in December, with falling dairy prices again outweighing

Bitcoin above USD94,725, best for beleaguered crypto since 17 November last year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Japanese officials were out in force today trying to smooth out the recent selloff in the Japanese Yen. We got the Finance Minister Katayama saying that they would take appropriate action against excessive forex moves without excluding any option and that she had deep talks on the matter with US Treasury Secretary Bessent. We

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The market has quickly forgotten about Maduro and Venezuela as the focus switched to the protests in Iran and Trump’s threats of military action to support the protestors. The US President is taking advantage of the protests to either overthrow the current regime or force them to sign deals on US terms. Yesterday,

It’s been quite the trade in precious metals over the last six months especially. You would think that we’ll be meeting a cooling point soon but even until today, things continue to run hot for both gold and silver. But if you’ve been watching things closely, or even loosely for that matter, you’ll surely notice

Headlines: Japanese Yen rebounds amid barrage of verbal intervention and “sell the fact” trade Japan’s finance minister offers up an oddly specific comment Tokyo officials intensify verbal intervention on the Japanese yen Nippon Ishin party leader says Takaichi is to call snap election at start of Diet session Trump says that the US needs Greenland

By Samuel Hertz, Head of APAC at EBC Financial Group On January 3, 2026, the United States confirmed the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, an event that immediately sent shockwaves across diplomatic channels and global markets. While the incident was framed publicly as a political enforcement action, its deeper significance lies in how closely

Summary: Barkin says central bank independence delivers better outcomes Declines comment on political pressure facing the Fed Inflation above target but not accelerating Unemployment ticking up but remains contained Businesses showing less appetite to pass through prices Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin reinforced the importance of central bank independence on Tuesday, saying countries that

Summary: US eases H200 export rules to case-by-case review Third-party testing and supply certifications required Shift from blanket denial to conditional pathway China signals purchases only in “special circumstances” Nvidia shares edge higher, uncertainty remains The United States has taken a calibrated step toward easing export restrictions on advanced AI semiconductors, revising licensing rules to

Summary: China December exports and imports beat forecasts Exports +6.6% y/y; imports +5.7% y/y in dollar terms December trade surplus $114.1bn 2025 trade surplus hits $1.19tn on flat imports US bilateral surplus eases slightly in December China closed 2025 with a stronger-than-expected trade performance, as December exports and imports both beat forecasts, underscoring the economy’s

Bitcoin Technical Analysis Today as Bitcoin Feels “Stuck” Despite a Bullish Backdrop JPM Dimon said the US economy is resilient but warned markets may be underpricing risk Japan 5-year JGB auction shows steady demand at higher yields China trade beats forecasts as 2025 surplus hits massive record BoJ sets out what will be discussed at

Precious metals are once again stealing the spotlight with silver surging above the $90 mark. However, there are still other key things taking place across markets too. With the rise in USD/JPY back above 159.00 overnight, the selloff in the Japanese yen currency and bond market continues to intensify. 10-year Japanese government bond yields have

Summary: BOJ market operations meetings are technical, not policy-setting Focus is on bond buying and liquidity mechanics Small tweaks can still send strong market signals Often used to prepare markets ahead of policy shifts Can move JGBs, yen and equities The Financial Markets Department of the Bank of Japan will hold the “meeting on market

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar weakened across the board yesterday following the soft US core inflation data but the initial moves were eventually faded and the greenback gained. It’s hard to explain such a price action but we got also renewed Trump’s threats against Iran following the US CPI report which weighed on the

Mimura is out saying that: Recently seeing one-sided rapid moves in the market Extremely concerned about forex moves Will take appropriate action against excessive moves, not ruling out any options Don’t see any economic fundamentals that back recent moves in the Japanese yen Volatility is the biggest problem Both a strong yen and weak yen

There is arguably just one to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1625 level. It isn’t one that ties to any key technical levels, so I wouldn’t attach too much significance to the expiries above. At most, it might just hold

Summary: Reuters Tankan shows manufacturers’ mood slips to six-month low Manufacturing index falls to +7 from +10 in December Materials sectors (oil/ceramics, steel, chemicals) lead declines Non-manufacturers dip slightly to +32 from +33 April outlook diverges: manufacturers improve, services worsen Japanese business sentiment softened at the start of the year, with manufacturers’ confidence slipping to

Japan’s Nippon Ishin party leader Yoshimura is out confirming that Takaichi will dissolve the lower house of parliament and call for a snap election. From before: Japan PM Takaichi reportedly states intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house Yoshimura adds that Takaichi will announce more details on that on Monday, 19 January. As mentioned in the

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than a couple of central bank speakers who are most likely going to repeat the same old stuff. In fact, ECB’s de Guindos has been a broken record for months in reaffirming the central bank’s neutral stance and the risks to

Delta Airlines reported earnings today and it was one of the strongest indications yet that there are two distinct economies in the US: The rich and everyone else. Where there was once the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’, there are now only the ‘have lots’ and everyone else. Delta is making a deliberate shift away

There is a fine line between a structural bull case and a physical impossibility; at least in the media and some overly-enthusiastic analysts. Recently, Forbes dug up a technical paper from Nvidia that was first published in May and it has been circulating through research notes and AI training sets, originally sourced from an NVIDIA

This year, Donald Trump seems determined to take on everyone. In geopolitics, he greenlit a special operation against Venezuela’s president and, after that apparent success, hinted at moves in Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, and even Greenland, while seizing oil tankers even in international waters. Domestically, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has accused the Trump administration of trying

Pres. Trump is speaking and with so many balls in the air, his comments are of market interest. Says we have a bad Fed Chair. Will pick a new Fed Chair in the next few weeks. On Iran: When asked about hell on the way to Iran, says you are going to have to figure

Both exports and imports surged in December to wrap up the year, as shown by the data here. Ignoring the bit of window dressing, the full-year picture tells a much more compelling story to what is happening on the trade front. From the numbers, China recorded a staggering record $1.19 trillion full-year trade surplus in

Summary: World Bank lifts global growth forecasts for 2025–26 Global GDP seen at 2.6% in 2026, 2.7% in 2027 US resilience drives bulk of upward revision Emerging market growth remains structurally weak 2020s shaping up as weakest growth decade since 1960s The global economy is showing greater resilience than previously expected, but growth remains too

Summary: Japan 5-year JGB auction clears smoothly Stop rate (the highest yield (or lowest price) at which the government accepts bids in a bond auction, the yield where the auction “stops.”) set at 1.65%, average yield 1.639% Only 0.48% of bids hit the lowest price Demand remains firm despite higher yields No immediate pressure on

Summary: Barkin downplays importance of any single Fed meeting Says policy mistakes can be corrected over time CPI data seen as encouraging Shelter inflation still distorted by data gaps Tariffs remain longer-term inflation risk Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin struck a pragmatic tone on monetary policy decision-making on Tuesday, playing down the importance of

Via oilprice.com — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.42 mn barrels Distillates +0.13 mn bbls Gasoline +0.24 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two

Just a quick data post. Its not moving NZD/USD around much at all. New Zealand Building Permits (November) +2.8% m/m prior –0.9% for the y/y, +13.5% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

December trade data from China headlines the economic and event calendar in Asia today. A couple of things to keep in mind: The time of release is scheduled for 0300 GMT, which is 2200 US Eastern time. The trade data does not necessarily get published on time, so if you are awaiting it it’ll pay

U.S. December budget deficit was $145B, versus $150B expected and $87B in December 2024 U.S. December budget outlays were $629B, up from $541B in December 2024 – Treasury U.S. December budget receipts were $484B, down from $454B in December 2024 U.S. December net customs receipts were $27.89B U.S. fiscal 2026 year-to-date deficit is $602B, compared

Summary: Japan stocks extend rally on snap election speculation Nikkei breaks above 54,000 for first time Markets price fiscal stimulus and stopgap budget risk Yen weakens past 159, lowest since July 2024 FX jawboning fails to slow equity-yen dynamic Japanese equities extended their rally on Wednesday, pushing further into record territory as speculation mounted that

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The U.S. dollar is pushing higher, led by USDJPY, which is up 0.55% and once again setting the tone for the broader FX market. In the video above, I walk through the technical picture for USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and AUDUSD, focusing on bias, risk, and targets. USDJPY USDJPY is making another run above the January

Prior was +2.7% CPI M/M +0.3% vs 0.3% expected Prior +0.3% Core CPI Y/Y +2.6% vs +2.7% expected Prior +2.6% Core CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.2% US Supercore CPI M/M +0.29% vs +0.35% prior We have a dovish surprise here as Core CPI figures came on the lower end of the forecasts.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq continues to consolidate inside a rising wedge as traders await new catalysts and a breakout on either side. The market maintains a bullish bias amid strengthening US economy and the Fed’s dovish reaction function. Yesterday, we got a brief drop following the news of the US Department of Justice subpoenaing the

The EURUSD ended last week leaning against an important swing area between 1.16125 and 1.1615, closing Friday near 1.1633, just above that support zone. That close left the pair sitting in a technically sensitive area — not broken lower, but not yet strong enough to confirm a sustained upside breakout either. In early Asia-Pacific trading,

Trump said on Truth Social that all the meetings with Iran’s officials have been cancelled and exhorted the Iranian people to keep protesting because help was on its way. For some context, the protests in Iran represent one of the most significant challenges to the Islamic Republic’s authority in decades. The unrest was ignited by

August New Home sales 0.800M October New home sales 0.737M vs 0.7200 estimate September new home sales was 0.738M The months’ supply is virtually unchanged from the September 2025 estimate of 7.9 months, and is 15.1 percent (±15.3 percent)* below the October 2024 estimate of 9.3 months. Median new-home price: $392,300, down 3.3% from September

Summary: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams says no urgency to change Fed rates Describes policy stance as “in a good place” Says calm markets reflect uncertainty, not complacency Economic conditions seen as quite favorable Emphasises continuity regardless of Fed leadership Earlier: Fed’s Williams says policy near neutral, sees inflation back at 2%

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem has laid out his baseline scenario for 2026: the U.S. economy could grow at or above-potential, the labor market should stabilise around current levels, and the central bank has likely reached the neutral level. Musalem’s comments suggests that he’s satisfied with the current restrictive-to-neutral policy and doesn’t see the

The USD higher vs the JPY (+0.46%) and little changed vs the EUR and GBP to start the US session. The CPI data will take focus when it is released at 8:30 AM ET. The expectation is for the headline to rise by 0.3% versus 0.3% last month. The core is also expected to rise

USD/JPY is surging still. Do we pencil in January 19 for Bank of Japan intervention? Japan steps up FX warnings, Tokyo jawboning returns, but yen reaction limited Japan govmt spokesperson says ready to respond on sharp, one-sided yen weakness Oil rises as geopolitics clash with new supply; Iran tensions vs. Venezuela exports Nikkei hits record

The US stock market unveiled a mixed tapestry today, with significant variances across sectors driving market dynamics. As financial giants felt the heat, the technology sector, led by AMD and Google, displayed notable resilience. Sector Overview Financial Sector: The financial sector experienced pressure, especially in credit services. Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) fell significantly, down

USDCAD moved lower today after the U.S. CPI report came in slightly softer than expected, adding pressure to the dollar and reinforcing the short-term downside bias in the pair. From a technical perspective, the pair fell back below its 100-hour moving average at 1.38706, giving sellers another modest but important victory in the near term.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW After some weakness following the US capture of President Maduro, crude oil rose to new highs as the market focus switched quickly from Venezuela to Iran. The protests in Iran represent one of the most significant challenges to the Islamic Republic’s authority in decades. The unrest was ignited by a catastrophic currency collapse,

This is just a data post, I’ll have the details in a separate post. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US NFIB 99.5 vs 99.2 expected Prior 99.0 Full report here The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points in December to 99.5 and remained above its 52-year average of 98, as reported by the agency. The Uncertainty Index fell 7 points from November to 84, the lowest reading since June 2024. NFIB Chief

Summary: US convenes finance ministerial on critical minerals Focus on rare earths and supply chain vulnerabilities Allies back diversification and resilience push Emphasis on derisking rather than decoupling Signals coordinated policy and investment approach The United States stepped up its push to secure global supplies of critical minerals on Monday, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott

The US Core CPI surprised to the downside today giving silver another boost as the market firmed up rate cuts expectations. Last month’s report was taken with a pinch of salt given the shutdown related issues, but today’s report confirmed the easing seen in the prior month. Silver continues to benefit from strong tailwinds like

It is reported that she has conveyed to a ruling party executive of her intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house, which could set up for a snap election in either early or the middle of February. The next ordinary Diet session is scheduled for 23 January and that is the timing in which Takaichi is

U.S. private employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week The pace of job gains edged up from the prior week (revised to 11.K from 11.0K last week) . These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data are added. Below is a look at the trend since October. The values are near

Summary: Williams says Fed policy now closer to neutral Inflation risks easing; job market downside risks rising US growth seen at 2.5%–2.75% in 2026 Inflation expected to return to 2% in 2027 No near-term urgency for further rate cuts New York Fed President John Williams signalled a steady hand on policy, saying rates are near

Summary: Japan spokesperson warns of “one-sided” sharp FX moves Repeats readiness to act against excessive volatility Follows Katayama’s earlier Washington jawboning Yen response limited; USD/JPY remains elevated Weak yen still supports record-high Nikkei Japanese officials renewed verbal warnings over yen weakness late Monday (US time), but the market reaction was limited, with traders largely keeping

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The US CPI report might be the main event on the agenda today. But for stocks, keep a close watch on key earnings releases this week as we get into that time of the quarter once again. The big banks will kick things off and for today, we’ll have JP Morgan and Bank of New

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

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Nasdaq Technical Analysis: The compression points to big moves once we get a breakout US small business optimism rises to a 3-month high on expected better economic conditions What is the distribution of institutional forecasts for the US CPI? What Is MT4 – A Beginner’s Guide to MetaTrader 4 Trading Crude oil extends gains as

KEY POINTS: Japanese PM Takaichi weighs calling snap election to restore LDP majority US DOJ subpoena renewed Fed independence worries and weighed on the dollar Japanese data not pointing to any urgent action on monetary policy US CPI in focus today USDJPY rises to the highest level since July 2024 FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US

We had some earlier too: Japan’s Katayama warns on weak yen in talks with US Treasury, invokes Bessent’s name I’ll come back with more detail on a separate post. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury will auction $39 billion of 10 year note of the top of the hour. The six-month average as of the major components will be compared to the actual results to determine relative strength or weakness of the auction. The 6 month averages shows: Tail 0.1 basis points Bid to cover 2.51X Directs

Well, if something can’t go up on good news.. there’s bound to be trouble up ahead. And the Japanese yen is quickly finding that out already with another drop today that sends it to a one-year low against the US dollar. I warned about the situation yesterday already here: The dollar isn’t the only major

Morgan Stanley forecasts headline inflation to come in at 0.37% m/m and 2.7% y/y as we look to the US December CPI report later today. The former is a little hotter than the 0.3% expected estimate with headline annual inflation matching estimates and the November reading at 2.7%. As for core inflation though, the firm

The firm notes that the dollar’s safe haven status in the short-term has been undermined by a myriad of factors as we get into the new year. Of note, a steady flow of US-initiated geopolitical surprises as well as Trump’s clear preference for wanting lower interest rates are creating a major headwind for the currency.

Trump: Effective immediately, any country doing business with Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with United States of America Just the headline at this stage, I’ll post more detail separately. Iran’s biggest trading partners: China (imports a great deal of oil from Iran) UAE

Gold and silver surge as Fed uncertainty ignites safe-haven demand US Treas Sec Bessent: Federal investigation made a mess, and could be bad for markets EURUSD Technical Analysis: Key moving averages define the next breakout U.S. Treasury auctions off $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.173% U.S. Treasury will auction

Summary: Nikkei and Topix surge to record highs Markets play catch-up with Wall Street rally Early election speculation boosts fiscal hopes Weak yen lifts exporters; Katayama comments fade Global risk appetite outweighs Fed concerns Japanese equities surged to record highs on Tuesday as markets played catch-up with Wall Street’s recent rally and investors leaned into

Takaichi administration’s responsible, proactive fiscal policy takes into account fiscal discipline It does not mean reckless spending Cannot say that fiscal policy alone is what determines market developments Forex rates are determined by various factors Long-term interest rates are also determined by various factors in the market Need to carefully see various factors including sustainability

Gold and silver are surging in dramatic fashion today, fueled by a powerful mix of political uncertainty, central-bank demand, and technical momentum. Gold is currently up $94, or 2.09%, at $4,603, while silver has jumped $5.15, or 6.44%, to $85.04. Both metals are on pace for record closes, reflecting an aggressive wave of safe-haven buying

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6700 level. The pair is not up to much today, with the dollar steadying now after a slight drop in the day before. The drag from Trump’s attack on Fed independence isn’t

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of central bank speakers. The session will likely be characterised by a rangebound price action as the market awaits the US CPI release. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we get the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

Summary: Trump announces 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran Measure declared effective immediately, with no details provided China, UAE, India and Turkey among Iran’s key partners Raises risk of higher costs for Chinese goods entering US Adds fresh uncertainty to global trade and geopolitics Trump unveiled a sweeping 25% tariff threat on countries trading

Summary: Fitch flags Fed independence as key U.S. rating support Agency monitoring governance and institutional checks closely Comments follow Trump administration pressure on Powell S&P also warns Fed credibility underpins U.S. rating Central bank independence seen as systemic credit anchor Ratings agencies have drawn a clear line around Federal Reserve independence, warning it remains central

Eyes and ears open for New York Fed President John Williams speaking. Williams is perceived as a close ally of Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Scheduled to give keynote remarks at a Council on Foreign Relations event starting at 6 p.m. US Eastern time. Japanese markets reopen today after a long weekend. The latest news from

Silver Technical Analysis: orderFlow Intel Signals Early Bearish Continuation After Failed Rally Silver futures delivered a dramatic upside move earlier this week, but recent price behavior suggests the market has shifted into a more cautious phase. This silver technical analysis breaks down what changed, why it matters, and how traders can frame a silver price

Summary: Katayama raises concerns over weak yen with Washington Says one-sided FX moves unacceptable Confirms bilateral meeting with US Treasury’s Bessent Yen strengthens following verbal intervention Officials signal tolerance for weakness is limited The yen strengthened after Finance Minister Katayama signalled renewed concern over the currency’s weakness, confirming she had raised the issue directly with

Summary: USD/JPY extends gains despite repeated jawboning Katayama and government warnings fail to shift FX Record Nikkei boosts tolerance for weak yen Intervention risk tied to disorderly moves, not levels Thin-liquidity periods seen as risk windows … I’m eyeing January 19 for direct intervention risk The continued surge in USD/JPY despite multiple rounds of official

Summary: Oil settles at seven-week highs, extending mid-January rally Iran export risks support prices amid protest crackdown Venezuela supply return caps upside Russia, Azerbaijan add background supply risk Volatility dominates despite surplus outlook Oil climbed as Iran-related supply risks outweighed expectations of returning Venezuelan barrels, gains seen since mid-last week. Oil prices climbed to their

Summary: Williams declines comment on Fed investigations Describes Powell as leader of “impeccable integrity” Warns eroding Fed independence leads to bad outcomes Reaffirms confidence inflation will return to 2% Fed officials close ranks amid political pressure New York Fed President John Williams forcefully defended Fed independence, backing Chair Powell and warning political interference would damage

Summary: UK consumer spending fell sharply in December Barclays card data shows biggest drop since 2021 Retail sales growth slows to weakest pace since May Shoppers delayed purchases awaiting discounts Outlook hinges on inflation easing and BoE cuts UK consumers pulled back sharply on spending in December, adding to signs that household caution intensified into

Summary: Bank of Korea (BoK) seen holding base rate at 2.50% on January 15 Won weakness and inflation risks limit easing scope Central bank signals end of easing cycle Seoul housing prices complicate policy outlook Next rate cut pushed back to 2027 South Korea’s central bank is expected to extend its policy pause this week,

Silver Futures Surge 8%+, But Key Levels Now Matter More Than Momentum Silver futures delivered a powerful upside session, opening with a clear gap higher and extending the rally throughout the day. At the time of writing, silver is trading near 85.93, up roughly 8.3% on the session, making this one of the strongest daily

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%. The previous close was 6.9733 more to come Injects 358.6bn yuan, 7-day RRs, @1.4% This article was written

Summary: Business confidence jumps to highest level since 2014 Firms’ own activity stabilises as recovery takes shape Hiring and investment intentions turn decisively positive Manufacturing leads rebound; construction remains weakest Inflation pressures contained despite improving demand Business confidence in New Zealand has jumped to its strongest level in more than a decade, according to the

Summary: Consumer sentiment slips further into pessimistic territory Rate expectations jump, weighing on confidence Near-term economic outlook deteriorates most sharply Job confidence softens, housing sentiment steadier Mixed backdrop for upcoming RBA decision Australian consumer confidence slipped further into pessimistic territory at the start of 2026, with the latest Westpac–Melbourne Institute survey showing households growing more

Summary: Williams highlights resilience of New York and US economy Reaffirms dollar’s role as global reserve currency Says global finance requires some coordination Defends Fed’s rate-control and reserve framework Confident inflation can return to 2% Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams struck an upbeat tone on the strength of the U.S. economy

The S&P and Dow are both closing at record levels despite concerns of Fed independence and geopolitical concerns with Iran increasing. The Dow is closing the day up 86.13 points or0.17% at 48590.20. The S&P is up 10.99 points or0.16% at 6977.27. The Nasdaq is closing up 62.56 points or 0.26% at 23733.90. The all-time

Axios is reporting that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent privately warned President Trump that the federal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell had “made a mess” and risked destabilizing financial markets. According to the report, Bessent did not challenge the need for a full investigation, but he made clear that the timing and political optics were

The U.S. Treasury auctions off $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of High yield 4.173% vs 4.169% last WI level at the time of the auction 4.181% Tail -0.7 basis points vs 6 month average of 0.1 basis points Bid to cover 2.55X vs 6 month average of 2.51X Directs 24.5%

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The greenback weakened across the board today following the news of the US Department of Justice subpoenaing the Federal Reserve in an unprecedented move that escalates the ongoing conflict between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell for not lowering interest rates faster. The official reason is that the DOJ is focusing on

The December payrolls number was on the softer side but the unemployment rate dropped back a little to 4.4% (unrounded 4.375%). The latter seems to be enough to convince some market analysts that the labour market is at least holding up as we get into the new year, with the Fed likely not too much

S&P 500 down -0.43% Nasdaq down -0.39% Dow Jones down -0.62% Russell down -0.56% The US Department of Justice subpoenaed the Federal Reserve in an unprecedented move that escalated the ongoing conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve. The DOJ is trying to find whether Powell made misleading or false statements to the

CNBC reported that Apple entered into a multi-year partnership with Google’s Gemini to power its AI features like Siri. “After careful evaluation, we determined that Google’s technology provides the most capable foundation for Apple Foundation Models and we’re excited about the innovative new experiences it will unlock for our users” Apple wrote. Google’s Gemini became

In a report on Monday, Goldman Sachs is expecting 10-year Treasury yields to rise to 4.40% by the end of 2026 citing a US economy which will continue to stay underpinned. The firm anticipates US economic growth to hit 2.3% and that will see it keep above the 2% long-term trend. Adding that more robust

There are just a couple to take note of on the list for the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered from 1.1650 through to 1.1700. The pair remains on a descending trend since the turn of the year and the expiries will add a layer to keep price

Summary: UK and Germany are leading talks on boosting European and NATO military presence in Greenland. Germany plans to propose a NATO Arctic mission, Arctic Sentry, modelled on Baltic Sentry. Move aims to undercut Trump’s argument that the US must control Greenland for security. European concern has intensified after recent US military action in Venezuela.

Sector Overview The stock market snapshot today shows a divergent trend across sectors with consumer defensive stocks outperforming the rest. Walmart (WMT) surged by 2.05%, leading the pack in the discount stores category. This resilience in consumer staples suggests heightened investor confidence in defensive stocks amidst market uncertainty. On the other hand, the financial sector

Summary: Powell says DOJ threatened criminal indictment Grand jury subpoenas served on Friday Issue linked to Senate testimony on Fed renovation Powell calls move unprecedented and political Raises concerns over Fed independence Powell responding to Trump’s latest slimy attack: NYT: Federal prosecutors open probe into Fed chair Powell amid renovation scrutiny Powell says Justice Department

Summary: UK hiring fell for a 39th straight month in December Permanent placements declined at the fastest pace in four months Starting salaries rose at the strongest rate since May Payroll tax rises continue to weigh on recruitment BoE faces tension between weaker jobs data and wage pressures Britain’s labour market showed further signs of

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver extended the gains into a new record high today following the news of the US Department of Justice subpoenaing the Federal Reserve. This is just another attack on Fed independence as the White House continues to seek pretext to fire Fed Chair Powell. We have already seen this kind of intimidation with

If there’s one other takeaway from the backlash against the dollar amid Trump’s attack against Fed independence, it is that the Japanese yen has all but lost its allure as a haven asset and place of shelter for investors. In any other time when risk aversion hits and the dollar credibility/confidence is shaken, it would

The main news of the day today is the US Department of Justice subpoenaing the Federal Reserve in an unprecedented move that escalates the ongoing conflict between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell for not lowering interest rates faster. The official reason is that the DOJ is focusing on the renovation to see whether Powell

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The greenback weakened across the board today following the news of the US Department of Justice subpoenaing the Federal Reserve in an unprecedented move that escalates the ongoing conflict between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell for not lowering interest rates faster. The official reason is that the DOJ is focusing on

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

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Headlines: Silver rallies to new all-time highs on renewed Fed independence worries Gold jumps to a new all-time high as the DOJ seeks a pretext to fire Fed Chair Powell Dollar stays on the backfoot amid unease over Fed independence The dollar isn’t the only major currency having a bad day European stocks pushed lower

It’s no wonder why precious metals continue to stay so bullish. Trump is making the headlines again to start the new week and in case you missed it: NYT: Federal prosecutors open probe into Fed chair Powell amid renovation scrutiny Fed Chair Powell calls out Trump on his witch hunt, part of ongoing threats against

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%. The previous close was 6.9784. Injects 86.1bn yuan, 7-day RRS, 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

The news broke that Trump is escalating his underhanded attacks on the Federal Reserve: NYT: Federal prosecutors open probe into Fed chair Powell amid renovation scrutiny Summary: NYT reports federal prosecutors have opened a probe involving Fed Chair Powell Specific allegations and scope are unclear from the headline alone Context includes intense political attacks over

Here’s a look at the major indices in Europe after the opening tussle: Eurostoxx -0.3% Germany DAX flat France CAC 40 -0.5% UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX -1.0% Italy FTSE MIB -0.7% And here’s how US futures are shaping up as we get things going on the session: S&P 500 futures -0.7% Nasdaq futures -1.0%

Eurozone January Sentix investor confidence -1.8 vs -4.9 expected Prior -6.2 That marks the highest reading since July last year with a modest improvement seen especially in Germany. Sentiment towards Europe’s largest economy nudged up by 6.3 points to -16.4, with the expectations component in particular sending a positive signal with an increase of 6.8

Yuan’s rally lacks fundamental support despite 2025 gains, former SAFE regulator says US hosts G7 talks on rare earths to counter China’s supply dominance UK hiring weakens again as wage growth stays firm, complicating BoE outlook Trump threatens to block Exxon from Venezuela after CEO calls country uninvestable PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Eurozone Sentix index and the German Current Account balance. None of the data is going to change anything for the ECB or the market, so the reaction will likely be muted. The

Summary: NYT reports federal prosecutors have opened a probe involving Fed Chair Powell Specific allegations and scope are unclear from the headline alone Context includes intense political attacks over Fed HQ renovation costs Powell previously requested an inspector general review of the project Any escalation could raise Fed-independence risk premia into the 2026 chair transition

Summary: Yuan rose 4.5% in 2025, its best year since 2020 Former SAFE official says gains lack fundamental backing Strength driven by weaker dollar demand, not inflows Falling REER does not imply undervaluation Disinflation and output gap argue against stronger yuan Yuan’s rebound lacks fundamental backing despite 2025 gains, former FX regulator warns. Info via

Summary: US hosting G7 ministerial talks on rare earths Aim is to reduce dependence on China-dominated supply chains Treasury Secretary Bessent to lead discussions Japan pushing issue amid China export curbs Focus on defence, tech and clean-energy minerals US to host G7 talks on rare earths as allies seek alternatives to China The United States

Summary: Trump says he may block Exxon from investing in Venezuela CEO Darren Woods called the country “uninvestable” Exxon cited past asset seizures and weak legal protections Tensions complicate US efforts to revive Venezuela’s oil sector Highlights gap between political goals and commercial risk – Trump threatens to block Exxon from Venezuela after CEO brands

US equity index futures are opening lower on Globex to begin the week’s trade. I guess I should come up with a narrative to ‘explain’, right? M’eh. The gap is small. If I had to pin it on anything it’d be the ratcheting higher of geopolitical tensions. But, I really wouldn’t bother too much. The

Adam had the news on Friday: Japan’s Takaichi weighs calling a snap election for mid-February More on this, summary: LDP lawmakers expect possible Lower House dissolution in late January Snap election could be held as early as February Takaichi citing inflation relief and economic impact as priorities Ruling bloc holds slim Lower House majority, Upper

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. EUR/USD 1.1635 USD/JPY 158.09 GBP/USD 1.3398 USD/CHF 0.8011 USD/CAD 1.3911 AUD/USD 0.6681 NZD/USD 0.5731 Not too much movement from Later Friday levels.

Summary: Trump to receive formal briefing on Iran response options Measures include sanctions, cyber tools and possible strikes Pentagon has not repositioned forces yet Starlink internet access under consideration Risk of regional escalation remains high Wall Street Journal with the report, link. The United States is stepping up contingency planning for possible action against Iran,

Summary: France warns 2026 budget may be delayed past March elections Confidence votes next week threaten government survival Possible National Assembly dissolution if government falls Budget talks already late amid deficit concerns Political uncertainty weighs on fiscal credibility France budget risks delay as confidence votes threaten government stability France’s fragile fiscal outlook is back in

The PPI data listed on the calendar from Japan is not due today, its due on Wednesday 14 January 2026. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today. The data from Australia is not likely to move Oz markets around much at all upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mon: Japanese Holiday (Coming of Age Day); M2 & New Yuan Loans (Dec) Tue: EIA STEO; US NFIB (Dec), CPI (Dec) Wed: NBP Policy Announcement; US PPI (Nov; Oct-cancelled), US Retail Sales (Nov) Thu: UK GDP Estimate (Nov), EZ Trade (Nov), US Export/Import Prices (Dec; Nov-cancelled), NY Fed Mfg survey (Jan), Weekly Claims (w/e 3rd

Summary: Daily Mail reports Trump has ordered US special forces to prepare invasion plans for Greenland. Senior US military leaders are resisting the plan, calling it illegal and lacking congressional backing. Advisers led by Stephen Miller are said to be pushing the idea after the Venezuela operation. British diplomats see a possible political motive ahead

Summary: Trump calls for 10% credit-card APR cap for one year, effective Jan 20, 2026. No enforcement detail: unclear if voluntary or government-mandated. Part of a populist “affordability” burst this week (incl. MBS buying idea and ban on institutional home buyers). Big gap to current pricing: Fed data shows 22.30% (Nov 2025) on the key

US December non-farm payrolls +50K vs +60K expected Canada employment change 8.2K versus -5.0 K estimate Japan’s Takaichi weighs calling a snap election for mid-February US October housing starts 1.246m vs 1.325m expected Fed’s Barkin: Today’s drop in the unemployment rate is welcome Fed’s Bostic says inflation is ‘a lot’ above the 2% target No

The White House is out with damage control after Trump leaked the jobs numbers late yesterday on Truth Social. “Following the regular procedure of presidents being prebriefed on economic data releases, there was an inadvertent public disclosure of aggregate data that was partially derived from pre-released information. The White House is accordingly reviewing protocols regarding

Friday was about the jobs report but the week ahead will see the market tilt towards earnings.. The S&P 500 is flirting with 7,000, yields are looking for direction, and the solid economy in 2026 narrative is crowded. The bank numbers and commentary will serve as a high-stakes health check on the US consumer—specifically if

Gold and silver have been volatile to start the year so far but the bulls have shown some impressive willingness to buy moderate dips. Now both are flirting with notable closes. Gold is attempting only its second-ever weekly close above $4500 after doing that on December 22 in holiday-thinned trading. Silver is attempting a weekly

Headlines from Barkin: Federal Reserve changes must be finely tuned to incoming data Both sides of central bank mandate face significant risks Unemployment remains at historic lows but has recently ticked up Inflation has decreased but still remains above 2% target Interest rates are now within range of neutral estimates No one wants labor market

The inflation story might have stolen the spotlight for quite a while in the past two years but come what may, there’s nothing quite like the US non-farm payrolls data. And now with the focus on the Fed outlook shifting back to the labour market, the report today will once again draw plenty of eyes

Prior +1.8%; revised to +2.0% At the same time, we also have German trade balance data for November out as per below: Trade balance €13.1 billion vs €16.5 billion expected Prior €16.9 billion That’s a solid beat for German industrial output, largely owing to a positive development to growth in the automotive industry (+7.8%). Increases

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The non-farm payrolls came in a bit softer than the whisper numbers, giving the “bad news is good news” crowd a reason to cheer. For the ECB, it doesn’t change much, but for equity bulls, it was the green light they needed to keep the momentum going. Here’s the closing scoreboard for the week ending

At a glance: Goldman expects ~70k payrolls, in line with consensus Two Fed cuts priced; first expected around late April 70k–100k seen as equity-friendly outcome Sub-50k risks growth scare; >125k may delay easing Volatility expectations remain subdued Goldman Sachs said the upcoming US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report is unlikely to materially shift market expectations for

It’s time for Fed not to lose sight of inflation mission Fed’s job and inflation mandates are somewhat in tension Need to be ‘laser focused’ on lowering inflation Inflation is ‘a lot’ above the 2% target No hire, no fire continues to be key labor market dynamic The job market has been cooler but it’s

Switzerland December seasonally adjusted unemployment rate 3.0% vs 3.0% expected Prior 3.0% The reading meets estimates, so there’s nothing all too much to talk about. The number of registered unemployed persons did see a slight rise though to 147,275 people. And that is up from the 138,860 unemployed persons seen in November 2025. As for

Late yesterday, Trump posted this on Truth Social: The problem is, that number didn’t match up with what had been reported in the non-farm payrolls report data that had already been released. It also came after the Council of Economic Advisors was briefed on the jobs report (usually the afternoon before the release). The numbers

Final December reading was 53.3 1-year inflation 4.2% vs 4.1% prior 5 year inflation 3.4% vs 3.2% prior Current conditions 52.4 vs 50.7 prior Expectations 55.0 vs 54.6 prior This isn’t a great economic indicator as answers are increasingly politicized and the inflation numbers are volatile. There was a time when this was tier-2 economic

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The firm estimates non-farm payrolls to clock in at 75k in December, beating estimates with private payrolls hitting 80k. That being said, they estimate the unemployment rate to jump up to 4.7% after having risen to 4.6% (4.56% unrounded) in November. “Just as with the last few months, we would caution that seemingly stronger job

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

It’s the first ‘big day’ of the year in a year that feels much longer than 9-days already. The non-farm payrolls report is due at the bottom of the hour along with the Canadian jobs report. Before the report is released, read Preview: December non-farm payrolls by the numbers. Finally past the shutdown fog The

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a contentious battleground across various sectors. Technology sees mixed outcomes, with notable declines and slight advances within sub-sectors. Industrials and Healthcare, however, show promising resilience, driving up overall market sentiment. 📉 Tech Sector: Microsoft (MSFT) dropped by 0.44%, paving a cautious path for the broader tech landscape. Nvidia

Headlines: What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? Who’s got the most bullish NFP forecast this time around? Non-farm payrolls seen accelerating as unemployment rate holds steady – JP Morgan US payrolls to stay supported but unemployment rate seen increasing further – Citi Trump: I have cancelled previously expected second wave of

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may be looking to capitalize on high personal approval ratings and a honeymoon period to consolidate power in the lower house. A Yomiuri report says she’s mulling dissolving the lower house for a snap election in mid or mid-February. Takaichi became the first woman ever to lead Japan’s dominant ruling party

Key Takeaways for New Traders and Investors Headlines around trade and housing look negative, but markets often move before headlines change. Canada’s economy has shown unexpected resilience, especially consumer spending. Political and institutional stability matters more than most people realize for currencies. A single U.S. Supreme Court ruling could quietly reshape global capital flows in

The deal between Meta and Oklo Inc. aims at securing a massive supply of carbon-free energy to power Meta’s artificial intelligence infrastructure. The agreement centers on the development of a large-scale nuclear power campus in Pike County, Ohio. The project targets a total capacity of 1.2 gigawatts (GW). Meta will prepay for power and provide

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 54 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 43 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 1 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end BoC: 13 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming

Prior was +64K (revised to +56K) October was -105K (revised to -173K) Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.5% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.6% Unrounded unemployment 4.375% vs 4.564% prior Participation rate 62.4% vs 62.5% prior U6 underemployment rate 8.4% vs 8.7% prior Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings +3.8% y/y vs

Before we go into the expected scenarios and what you may consider trading, here’s where you can watch it live when it starts! Supreme Court & Trump Tariffs: Watch Live Before it starts, here is a glimpse of the wisdom of the crowd and what the supreme court, in its view, will decide. Event Risk

KEY POINTS: Nasdaq price action remains rangebound but with a bullish bias Pullback in Fed support turned the focus heavily towards data Reaction to negative labour market data likely to reverse in 2026 as inflation remains a constraint for the Fed FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Since the peak in late October, the Nasdaq has been bouncing around

Oil has steadily climbed today, though not enough to recoup the losses on Tuesday and Wednesday. WTI crude is up $1.60 to $57.60, which is a nearly 3% gain and comes after yesterday’s decline to the lowest since December 17 and a threat of the five-year low set in December. It’s been a lively week

For InvestingLive.com Traders and Investors Date: January 9, 2026 Session: Pre-Market / Early US Session Asset: Nasdaq-100 Futures (NQ) Nasdaq Futures Today: From Apparent Weakness to Structural Strength Earlier in the session, Nasdaq futures appeared vulnerable. Price briefly pushed below recent value, creating the impression that a bearish breakdown might be developing. That initial read,

At a glance: Goldman stays modestly pro-risk for 2026, but expects lower returns than recent years Tailwinds shift: less monetary impulse, more fiscal/regulatory support AI seen moving from capex to adoption/monetisation phase Valuations/risk premia look late-cycle, so earnings matter most Prefers equities over credit; OW Asia ex-Japan, UW Europe Goldman Sachs says global equities should

The waiting continues. The US Supreme Court works in mysterious ways. The announced on Tuesday that this would be a ‘decision day’ but the court always has a large number of decisions to make and they don’t pre-announce which one it will be. They technically have until June to make the tariff decision but because

The distribution of forecasts this time around has the headline number in a range of 19k to 155k. The most bullish end of the range comes from Jefferies, who forecast non-farm payrolls at 155k with private payrolls at 90k. At the same time, the firm also sees the unemployment rate dropping back down to 4.3%

From the man himself: “Venezuela is releasing large numbers of political prisoners as a sign of “Seeking Peace.” This is a very important and smart gesture. The U.S.A. and Venezuela are working well together, especially as it pertains to rebuilding, in a much bigger, better, and more modern form, their oil and gas infrastructure. Because

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW We got a small pullback in gold in the final part of the week following a couple of good US data. Overall, the market pricing didn’t change much but the chances for a cut in January fell further. The bullish momentum remains intact for now, but the US NFP report today could challenge

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. As such, that will keep market players focused on the main event later today. That being the US labour market report. It’s the first one for the new year and one that will be watched carefully as

The Canada December jobs statistics show: Employment change: 8.2 K vs -5.0K estimate, +53.6K prior Unemployment rate: 6.8% vs 6.6% estimate, 6.5% prior Full-time employment change: 50.2K vs -9.4k last month Part-time employment change: -42.0K vs 63.0K last momth Participation rate: 65.4% vs 65.1% last month Avg hourly wages (permanent, YoY): 3.7% vs 4.0% last

At a glance: Goldman survey shows 59% bearish on crude Most negative sentiment since April 2025 Oil seen as preferred short by record number Supply glut driven by OPEC+, US, Brazil, Guyana Geopolitics failing to offset oversupply concerns Goldman Sachs said institutional investor sentiment toward crude oil has turned sharply bearish, with positioning now close

At a glance: Commerzbank says UK-EU rapprochement optimism is premature Single-market access would require slow, conditional concessions Danske Bank sees sterling’s recent gains as overdone Weak UK growth may prompt further BoE easing Relative UK-eurozone outlook favours EUR over GBP Sterling’s recent gains may be running ahead of fundamentals, with analysts warning that optimism around

Key Takeaways for AMD Stock Investors (watch my video) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is trading below a broken multi-month channel, keeping the medium-term technical bias bearish. A confirmed bear flag breakdown from December remains active after a clean retest failure. AMD is showing relative weakness versus major indices, despite occasional short-term bounces. With earnings approaching

The U.S. dollar is moving to the upside, with the Dollar Index climbing to its highest level in about a month and notable strength against the JPY (up 0.45%). The greenback is also higher vs the other major currency pairs with USD up 0.11% vs the EUR and 0.19% vs the GBP. The AUDUSD is

Summary: China restricts rare-earth and magnet exports to Japan Move linked to Japan PM’s Taiwan-related remarks Restrictions extend beyond defence sector Nomura estimates $17bn potential annual impact Japan raises issue with G7, Washington meetings planned Flagged this earlier in the weeK China escalated tensions with Japan, bans exports of goods with potential military uses Updating

Prior 1.307m Building permits 1.412m vs 1.350m expected Prior 1.330m This is still old data as government shutdown in October delayed many key economic reports. The last report was in September where it showed housing starts falling to the lowest level since May 2025. There’s been persistent housing market weakness due to high mortgage rates

The firm estimates non-farm payrolls to show a growth of 75k in December, with private payrolls also matching that figure at 75k. Much like what Citi noted, JP Morgan also points to seasonal factors as underpinning the headline payrolls number: “The summer deceleration and subsequent acceleration bears some resemblance to last year, so there could

At a glance: Musk says China will dominate AI compute via power scale Electricity, not chips, seen as key AI bottleneck China cites infrastructure and energy advantages Domestic chip capabilities accelerating Beijing targets AI self-reliance by 2027 ICYMI, Elon Musk said China is on track to surpass all other countries in artificial-intelligence computing power, arguing

Just a post noting this data release. I’ll be back with detail in a separate post. Link here (added). China December 2025: CPI 0.8% y/y, close to a 3-year high expected 0.9%, prior 0.7% +0.2% m/m vs. expected 0%, prior -0.1% PPI -1.9% y/y expected -2.0%, prior -2.2% +0.2% m/m vs. expected +0.1%, prior 0.1%

China and economic data numbers. It always just tends to play out nicely for Beijing’s narrative and this is one of those times. Say what you want about the December CPI report earlier in the day but it kept the 2025 full-year CPI at 0%. As such, lawmakers and policymakers can attest to the claim

There was a distinct air of rotation in US stock markets on Thursday as chipmakers struggled and dragged down the Nasdaq while most other stocks were higher, some strongly so. This highlights the divergence: Within IT, the losers were some of the chip and memory names that rallied big earlier in the week. Western Digital

The overall market mood remains more pensive with investors keeping a close watch on the US jobs report later and potential court ruling on Trump’s tariffs. However, the mood in Europe this week has largely been more positive – not least being shielded from the tech slump yesterday as well. European stocks are pushing slight

Summary: Centeno highlights Europe’s structural uncertainty ECB seen as stabilising institutional anchor Risks shifting outside traditional banking system Emphasis on discipline, independence and consensus Interview avoids near-term policy guidance Mario Centeno, governor of Banco de Portugal (the country’s central bank) said Europe has entered a period of “structural uncertainty” marked by trade tensions, elevated sovereign

Summary: China CPI rose 0.8% y/y in December, a 34-month high Full-year CPI at 0.0%, avoiding outright deflation Food prices driving gains; pork drag easing Core inflation steady, property prices still deflationary Further monetary easing seen as likely China narrowly avoided outright deflation in 2025, with consumer inflation ending the year at its highest level

China avoids deflation in 2025 as inflation edges higher, easing still likely ECB vice-presidential hopeful Centeno flags “structural uncertainty” facing Europe Goldman says NFP unlikely to shift April Fed cut unless data sharply surprises China curbs rare-earth exports to Japan, Tokyo raises concerns with G7 and US China inflation hits near three-year high, but producer

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we the main highlights are the Swiss Unemployment Rate and the Eurozone Retail Sales data. These releases won’t change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will likely be muted. Traders will also tread carefully into the American session where we will get the most important

Summary: China CPI rose 0.8% y/y, fastest since Feb 2023 Monthly CPI beat expectations at +0.2% PPI fell 1.9% y/y, easing but still deflationary Core inflation steady at 1.2% Weak demand and property stress remain key drags China’s consumer inflation accelerated in December to its fastest pace in nearly three years, while factory-gate prices remained

US posts smallest trade deficit since 2009 Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow 5.4% vs 2.7% prior New York Fed survey sees rising one-year consumer inflation expectations, jobs angst US October wholesale inventories +0.2% vs +0.2% expected US initial jobless claims 208K versus 210K estimate. Preview: December non-farm payrolls by the numbers. Finally past the shutdown fog

At a glance: Japan household spending rose 2.9% y/y in November Far above expectations for a decline Monthly spending jumped 6.2% m/m BOJ recently lifted rates to 30-year high Real wages still falling sharply Japanese household spending unexpectedly rebounded in November, offering a tentative sign of resilience in domestic demand even as real income pressures

Summary: Trump says he has ordered $200 bn in MBS purchases to lower mortgage rates Plan aims to compress mortgage spreads and reduce monthly payments Purchases would be linked to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac resources Proposal revives state-led intervention in housing finance markets Markets may view comments as political pressure on long-term rates Donald

Just a post noting this data release. Japanese Household Spending +6.2% m/m expected +2.7%, prior -3.5% I’ll be back with detail in a separate post. ADDED, here it is to check out: Japan household spending rebounds while real wages still lag, complicates BOJ outlook This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary: HSBC sees gold hitting $5,000/oz in H1 2026 on geopolitical and debt risks Bank cuts 2026 average forecast slightly to $4,587/oz Warns of deeper correction if Fed halts easing or risks fade Forecast range for 2026 seen at $3,950–$5,050 Longer-term forecasts raised for 2027, 2028, and 2029 HSBC said gold prices could surge as

The market focus for the data agenda ahead here in Asia – Pacific today, Friday, January 9, 2026, is the December inflation data due from China: due at 0130 GMT, which is 2030 US Eastern time The December inflation data will be closely watched for signs of whether the modest recovery in prices seen late

If the Supreme Court limits the President’s use of IEEPA in the Learning Resources case, the administration will certainly pivot to other legislative tools, as Bessent references here. But if those tools were as good as the IEEPA, they would have used them already. While IEEPA offers the broadest authority, the executive branch has several

What’s expected: Consensus estimate +60K (range +19K to +155K) November +64K Private consensus estimate +64K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.5% vs 4.6% prior Participation rate consensus 62.5% prior Prior underemployment U6 prior 8.7% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.6% y/y vs +3.5% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.1% prior Avg weekly hours

Prior 0.0% Core CPI +0.5% y/y Prior +0.4% Swiss inflation continues to hold rather flattish with there being no growth on the month-on-month reading as well. That continues to underscore a lack of any momentum in price pressures. The script has flipped on the SNB for quite a while now as the battle is now

Headlines: An early test for gold and silver ahead of the main event tomorrow US non-farm payrolls distortion to carry over to December report tomorrow? USDJPY remains confined in a range: traders eye US NFP tomorrow for key breakouts Trump says that US oversight of Venezuela could stay on for years Nvidia to require full

Summary: Goldman sees Chinese equities rising further in 2026 MSCI China +20%, CSI 300 +12% targeted Returns expected to be earnings-driven AI, exports and policy support key pillars Valuations seen as reasonable, flows supportive Goldman Sachs expects Chinese equities to continue rising through 2026, supported by artificial intelligence adoption, policy support and improving earnings momentum,

One year inflation expectations +3.4% vs +3.2% Three-year inflation unchanged at 3.0% Five year inflation unchanged at 3.0% Job-finding expectations hit record low Expectations of home price growth unchanged at 3% Perception of credit access fell Expectations of losing a job rose Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained unchanged at 2.6% in November The mean

Sector Overview Today’s market landscape reveals a mixed bag of performances across various sectors. The technology sector, led by giants like Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL), showed slight losses, with MSFT down 0.23% and ORCL slipping by 1.33%. In contrast, the semiconductor industry also faced a challenging day, highlighted by a 0.10% decline in Nvidia

Prior was +0.5% Wholesale trade sales -0.4% vs -0.2% exp It’s not clear whether we will get the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker but there should be a big rise in the Q4 data due to strong trade numbers earlier. This reading will be a small drag but it was mostly priced in. The US wholesale

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we have a few important data releases although they most likely won’t be market-moving given the limited impact on monetary policy. The Swiss CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.1% vs 0.0% prior. Inflation has been missing the SNB’s forecasts recently but the central bank continues to push back on

From the Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4 percent on January 8, up from 2.7 percent on January 5. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management,

80% of your job is to follow the central banks. They have an enormous influence on financial markets, and I would say they are responsible for most of market moves. A central bank can single handedly trigger or end a recession. When trying to know how an economy is performing, lots of new traders immediately

The US dollar reaction immediately after the October trade data was tepid, with about 10 pips of gains in USD/JPY but that’s since stretched to 35 pips. As I highlighted with the data, the trade beat will lead directly to higher GDP forecasts for the fourth quarter. The clearest example of that will be in

As a reminder, we are moving back to the regular scheduled programming in which the US non-farm payrolls data is released on the first real Friday of the month. The November report was plagued by data quality issues amid the longest US government shutdown, which eventually saw the report delayed to the middle of December.

Summary: Barclays urges selectivity in Chinese tech for 2026 Broad stimulus-driven gains seen in 2025 unlikely to repeat EV sector faces rising headwinds as tax incentives fade Preference for resilient revenue and AI-linked names Tencent, Trip.com and Alibaba cited as selective plays Barclays is urging investors to adopt a more selective approach to Chinese technology

USD trading quietly as FX volatility compresses sharply The USD is little changed on the day, with price action defined by very narrow, two-way trading ranges across the major currency pairs. Volatility has been squeezed to unusually low levels. The EURUSD is confined to just a 14-pip range, the GBPUSD has traded only 33 pips,

Prior was a deficit of $52.8B (revised to -48.1B) Goods trade balance -58.57B vs -77.69B prior You will see some big Q3 GDP forecast upgrades with this data. This is the payback from the front-run early in the year and it came in stronger than economists forecast. That led to about a 10 pip rise

If there’s one spot that investors should look to amid all the fiscal risks in most major economies and the de-dollarisation narrative, it’s Asia ex-Japan (AxJ). The US has its own set of issues and so does Europe, and with Japan also facing a power struggle between the government and central bank, there are clear

Summary: PBOC rolls CNY 1.1tn via three-month outright reverse repos Structure uses fixed quantity, multi-price bidding Signals liquidity stability, not necessarily new net easing Supports early-year bond issuance and credit supply narrative Aligns with broader 2026 stance: keep liquidity ample — The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 1.1-trillion-yuan (about 157 billion U.S.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been bouncing around in the past few days as traders continue to wait for the US NFP report. The US data this week has been mixed. We got a soft ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday but a strong Services PMI yesterday. The ADP was good despite a slight

Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Jan 3) Initial claims: 208K, +8K vs last week (prior week revised up to 200K) Weekly revision: Last week revised +1K (199K → 200K) 4-week moving average: 211.8K, -7.3K vs prior week Notable: Lowest 4-week average since April 27, 2024, reinforcing underlying labor-market firmness Continuing Jobless Claims (week ending Dec

KEY POINTS: US dollar remains supported despite mixed US data Traders turn their focus to the US NFP report for the next direction Swiss CPI matches estimates, SNB seen on hold for a long time USD/CHF rises into a key resistance near the 0.80 handle FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been bouncing around

There’s always that certain sense of danger when it comes to consensus trades. And this one here to start the new year is no different. Everyone’s talking about commodities as we get into 2026 trading with plenty of focus and attention on gold and silver, especially after the surging rally in December. And after a

Summary: Rubio to meet Danish officials next week over Greenland tensions Trump’s renewed interest in acquiring Greenland alarms allies U.S. military option not ruled out, raising NATO concerns European leaders reaffirm Greenland’s sovereignty Greenland’s strategic value intensifies geopolitical fault lines U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has confirmed he will meet with Danish officials next

KEY POINTS: US dollar continues to bounce around as traders await the NFP report US data this week came out mixed Japanese wage data disappointed with traders slightly paring back rate hike bets USDJPY price action remains rangebound as we await new catalysts FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been bouncing around in the

Prior +0.1% PPI -1.7% vs -1.9% y/y expected Prior -0.5% It’s a beat on estimates but this is very much a lagging data point at best. The consumer price index (CPI) precedes this and outweighs this on inflation trends, so just take this as a supportive or secondary data. If excluding energy, producer prices were

Today, I’m taking a fresh look at Bitcoin futures as we move deeper into the start of year 2026. After two weeks where bulls briefly reclaimed control and enjoyed what I would call their moment of fame, the technical picture has shifted again. Bears are back in control, and the structure that is developing deserves

Summary: Japan real wages fell 2.8% y/y in November Sharp drop in bonus payments weighed on incomes Nominal wage growth slowed to 0.5% y/y Inflation stayed elevated at 3.3% Wage-inflation gap remains a key challenge complicating the Bank of Japan’s tightening path. Japan’s real wages fell sharply in November, marking the steepest decline since January

Introduction: What Is Options Trading? Options trading involves buying and selling contracts called options. These contracts give you the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset, such as shares, an index, or an ETF, at a specific price before a set date. Unlike just buying a stock or cryptocurrency, options

KEY POINTS: USD continues to bounce around as traders await the US NFP report US data has been mixed, macro outlook remains unchanged NZD bias still neutral given the lack of key economic reports RBNZ expected to deliver a rate hike by the end of the year FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been

There is arguably just one to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being a large one for USD/JPY at the 156.15 level. The pair has been seeing a lot of pushing and pulling all through the week, largely holding between 156 to 157 since Tuesday. The

It seems like Challenger published the report early again with job cuts in December 2025 totaling to 35,553, down 50% from the 71,321 layoffs announced in November. Compared to the previous December in 2024 (38,792), job cuts were down 8%. The total for December last year is the lowest monthly total since 25,885 cuts were

Data post only, I’ll have more detail in a separate post. Australia November 2025: Trade Balance +2,936mn expected +4900mn, prior +4,385mn Exports -2.9% m/m prior +3.4% Imports +0.2% m/m prior +2.0% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China warns battery makers on overcapacity risks in EV and energy storage sectors Japan 30-year JGB auction weakens as bid-to-cover drops and tail widens Trump wants strategic control of Venezuela oil industry to reshape markets, send oil to 50 Barclays urges selective approach to Chinese tech stocks in 2026 Goldman Sachs sees further China equities

Summary: China warns battery sector of rising overcapacity risks Industry ministry urges capacity optimisation and supervision EV and energy storage batteries under closer scrutiny Data-centre buildout has boosted demand but fuelled oversupply Solar sector cited as cautionary example China’s industry ministry has issued a fresh warning to battery manufacturers, urging firms to rein in capacity

Summary: U.S. considering plan to control Venezuelan state oil output and sales. Aim to influence global oil prices and curb Russia/China leverage. Strategy includes partnerships with majors like Chevron. Substantial investment needed to revive decayed oil infrastructure. Plan faces domestic political pushback and geopolitical risk. The U.S. administration under President Donald Trump is reportedly exploring

“Only time will tell” how long direct oversight is demanded on Venezuela We will rebuild it in a very profitable way The oil will take a while; but we’re going to be using oil, and we’re going to be taking oil We’re getting oil prices down, and we’re going to be giving money to Venezuela,

Summary: China’s FX reserves rose USD 11.5 bn in December to USD 3.36 trn Record near-USD 1 trn trade surplus has renewed yuan valuation debate Headline yuan strength masks deep real-exchange-rate undervaluation Weak domestic demand and deflation underpin export competitiveness Analysts see limited scope for yuan appreciation without policy risks China’s foreign-exchange reserves edged higher

Summary: Trump administration urges U.S. oil majors to invest in Venezuela Executives demand strong legal/financial guarantees before committing Policy uncertainty and past expropriation risks remain key hurdles Any output rebound likely slow and capex-heavy, not immediate U.S. aims to steer oil sales/revenue, raising political complexity The Trump administration is pressing major U.S. oil companies to

It’s a rare report in which the Japanese central bank makes no changes to any of their economic assessment of the 9 Japanese regions covered. For the most part, they see regional economies as “recovering moderately” or “picking up moderately”. And that fits with their main messaging in their view towards the Japanese economy as

The sources mentioned that Nvidia is requiring full upfront payment from Chinese customers who are seeking its H200 artificial intelligence chips, which is a rather unusual and stringent term compared to standard industry practice. This looks to be a move by Nvidia to hedge against the relative uncertainty of whether Beijing will approve of the

Summary: 30-year auction demand softened: bid-to-cover 3.14 vs 4.04 Tail widened 0.15 vs 0.09, needing more concession Highest yield 3.457%, reflecting elevated long-end rates Reinforces super-long supply/demand concerns Keeps curve-steepening and term-premium risk in focus Japan’s latest 30-year JGB auction showed a clear softening in demand, reinforcing the message that the market is still uneasy

Date: January 8, 2026 (23:23, Wednesday, 7 January 2026, Eastern Time (ET)) By investingLive.com Head of Strategy and analyst, Itai Levitan, using orderFlow Intel Market Focus: Gold Futures (GC), February 2026 Contract Gold Technical Analysis Summary (Key Takeaways) Gold technical analysis confirms a trend day down after failure above key value levels. A clear look-above-and-fail

Prior 0.0%; revised to -0.1% House prices +0.3% vs +1.1% y/y expected Prior +0.7%; revised to +0.6% UK house prices dropped unexpectedly at the end of last year but managed to still round off the year slightly higher compared to where it was in December the previous year. Overall, it’s much like what other housing

Summary: China allegedly hacked emails of U.S. congressional staff Targeted committees include China, intelligence, defence and foreign affairs Linked to cyber campaign known as “Salt Typhoon” U.S. officials warn of risks to critical infrastructure Incident adds strain to already tense U.S.–China relations U.S. concerns over Chinese cyber espionage intensified today following reports that email systems

Prior +1.5%; revised to +1.6% That’s a surprising beat, with the jump owing to a spike in large orders in the manufacture of metal products (+25.3%) and in other vehicle construction i.e. aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles (+12.3%). That adds to moderate increases in several other sectors too, helping to underscore a strong reading for

Summary: Finance ministry flags heightened FX volatility and readiness to act Officials argue won moves don’t reflect fundamentals Verbal intervention aims to deter one-way/speculative momentum Equity-inflow measures flagged to improve capital flow balance Structural flow pressures mean rhetoric may limit swings, not “fix” KRW South Korea’s finance ministry has stepped up its verbal warning on

It’s been a quiet start to the year in the bond market but that won’t last. There are some major events coming that could spark a rethink about the current consensus outlook, which is something like: A moderate acceleration in growth Steady to slightly worsening jobs market 2-3 Fed rate cuts in 2026 Declining inflation

December trade data from China headlines the economic and event calendar in Asia today, Thursday, January 8, 2026. I have not seen this listed on any other calendar, so I’m thinking perhaps it will not be published today. Trade data from China is often more towards the middle of the month. I’ll keep an eye

Summary: RBA says November CPI largely as expected, “not a lot of news” Inflation above target, with core still sticky at 3.2% Deputy governor reiterates rate cuts unlikely anytime soon Black Friday sales helped headline CPI, housing costs firm February meeting remains live, with hike risk still priced Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Data post only, I’ll be back with details separately. Real Cash Earnings -2.8% y/y expected -1.2%, prior -0.8% Overtime Pay +1.20% y/y expected +1.4%, prior +1.5% Average Cash Earnings +0.5% y/y expected +2.3%, prior +2.6% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s national broadcaster, the ABC, will carry an interview with RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser “later this morning”. There is no further indication re the time of this, so I guess we all just stay tuned. As you’ll see in the screenshot, Hauser will be speaking after yesterday’s inflation data and ahead of the Reserve

Summary: Goldman expects silver volatility to remain extreme Thin London inventories amplifying price moves Pre-positioning drained liquidity despite tariff exemptions Demand sensitivity has risen sharply amid tight supply China export controls risk further market fragmentation Goldman Sachs expects extreme volatility in silver prices to persist after the metal posted an extraordinary rally in 2025, warning

December ISM services 54.5 vs 52.3 expected JOLTS job openings for November 7.146M vs 7.600M estimate. ADP December national employment +41K vs +47K expected US October factory orders -1.3% vs -1.2% expected EIA weekly crude oil inventories -3832K vs +447K expected Blackstone shares fall after Trump says to ban corporate ownership of homes (but he

The S&P 500 hit a record at midday but profit taking in meme stocks hit from there and then slowly spread into broader selling. Among the bigger names, Lockheed Martin was a loser after Trump threatened defense companies with blocking buybacks unless they increase production. Shares of Caterpillar fell 4% after strengthening earlier this week.

US President Donald Trump has been talking about improving housing affordability for awhile and he might finally be taking steps in that direction. He wrote on Truth Social: For a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American Dream. It was the reward for working hard, and doing

Germany December construction PMI 50.3 Prior 45.2 That’s some positive news at least for the German economy, with the jump higher here driven by a further increase in civil engineering activity. Of note, activity in this segment registered its strongest rate of expansion since March 2011. Besides that, the drag on total activity from the

A middling start for US stock markets has turned into a solid gain, with the S&P 500 up 0.25% to a record 6964. The Nasdaq is leading the way today, up 0.7% to 23718, which is still shy of November’s record at just above 24,000. The Russell 2000 has been the standout performer so far

It’s the start of the year and that means index rebalancing flows. A big one on the radar right now is the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), and the flows this year are large. Scotiabank is out with a note breaking down the flows, which start tomorrow and run through Jan 14, with 20% of the

The estimate is for the headline PMI reading to drop to 52.3, down from 52.6 in November. That will point to a further moderation in business activity to round up the year, as reflected in the S&P Global PMI report yesterday here. If the ISM print matches the estimate, that will be the softest reading

Prior -0.3%; revised to +0.3% Retail sales +1.1% vs +0.9% y/y expected Prior +0.9%; revised to +1.6% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Summary: Trump says Venezuela will send 30–50m barrels of oil to the U.S. Proceeds from sales to be controlled by the U.S. administration Move follows U.S. capture of Maduro and international backlash Talks underway to redirect Venezuelan crude exports into U.S. markets Oil companies may be tapped to rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector President Donald Trump

KEY POINTS: DAX 40 rises above the 25,000 level Softer Eurozone inflation eases ECB tightening risks Positive risk sentiment keeps the bulls in charge US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs could spark a rally in risk assets FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The German DAX has finally broken out of the 2025 range and extended the gains

Highest reading since October 2024 Business activity index 54.4 vs 52.6 prior Employment 52.0 vs 48.9 New orders57.9 vs 52.9 prior Prices paid 64.3 vs 65.4 prior Supplier deliveries51.8 vs 54.1 prior Inventories54.1 vs 54.8 prior Backlog of orders 42.6 vs 49.1 prior New export orders 54.2 vs 48.7 prior Imports 50.3 vs 48.9 prior

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. Earlier: China flags rate and RRR cuts in 2026 as PBoC leans dovish China operates a managed