I would have expected the Supreme Court decision to be a negative for gold, as it opens the pathway to a reversal of tariffs and a re-affirmation of the dollar-based system. Instead, the market seems to be taking it as a sign of further turmoil and uncertainty, which is gold bullish. The ongoing worries about […]

Comments from Trump and what he’s hinting at: “Proud of the justices that voted in favour” and “no way anyone can argue with those who dissented” The dissent was Kavanaugh, joined by Thomas and Alito. Kavanaugh’s dissent argued for a foreign affairs exception to the major questions doctrine and read IEEPA’s text more broadly. The

Tech struggles as communication services edge up: A mixed market day Today’s US stock market presents a dynamic landscape with tech giants faltering while the communication services sector displays resilience. Here’s a thorough breakdown of sector performances, significant movers, and the overall market mood shaping the day. 📉 Technology Sector: Pulling Back Software and Semiconductors:

The NASDAQ index has rebounded in the wake of the Supreme Court decision, pushing to an intraday high of 22,948.87. That rally brought the index to within roughly 13–14 points of the falling 100-hour moving average (currently at 22,961.75) — a level that has attracted early selling interest. Sellers leaned against the moving average on

The Atlanta Fed’s initial GDPNow estimate for Q1 2026 real GDP growth came in at 3.1% (annualized) as of February 20, pointing to a solid start to the year. At the same time, the advance estimate for Q4 2025 GDP, released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, showed growth of just 1.4% — a

Prior was +2.8% PCE M/M +0.4% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.2% Core PCE Y/Y +3.0% vs +2.9% expected Prior +2.8% Core PCE M/M +0.4% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.2% Consumer spending and income for December: Personal income +0.3% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.3% (revised to +0.4%) Personal spending +0.4% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.5% (revised

A Supreme Court decision on key Trump tariffs is expected in the current opinion window (with Feb 20 highlighted), and JPMorgan’s trading desk outlines sharply different equity outcomes depending on whether tariffs are upheld, struck down, or swiftly replaced. With ~$124bn in customs duties through January, fiscal incentives may reinforce rapid “replacement” efforts if IEEPA

Market action in the wake of the tariff decision has been choppy. There aren’t many tariff/Supreme Court experts on trading desks, so markets are understandably confused. Trump and other administration officials have said many times that they have other opportunities to reconstitute tariffs. The initial reaction in markets largely suggests they’re taking that at face

The USD initially moved lower following the Supreme Court’s 6–3 decision striking down the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariff authority. The greenback sold off in the immediate aftermath as markets reacted to the removal of tariff-related price pressures. However, the reaction has been mixed across asset classes. U.S. yields have pushed higher — with the 10-year

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar is now trading higher against most major currencies after another slate of strong US data this week and the US-Iran tensions potentially supporting the greenback. The market is still pricing 57 bps of easing by year-end but the crowded bearish positioning on the US dollar requires strong reasons for

Trump says the Supreme Court decision is a ‘disgrace’ and that he will find other ways to impose them, according to CNN. The thing is, IEEPA tariffs are immediately voided and that’s 60% of tariff revenue. I’d imagine there is rush to get those over the border and that’s going to create a huge trade

There is just one to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for USD/JPY at the 155.00 level. Similar to yesterday, the expiries may factor into play in acting as a magnet for price action during the session ahead. However, the impact of the one for

Manufacturing flash index 51.2 versus 52.6. Prior month 52.4 Services PMI flash for February 52.3 versus 53.0 estimate. Prior 52.7. Composite 52.3 versus 53.0 last month The good news is that each of the a indices were above the 50.0 level indicating growth. The bad news is that each of the estimates were below the

Prior 1.3% revised to 1.2% Retail sales ex auto – +0.1% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month revised to 1.6% from 1.7% Sales C$70.0b Advance retail sale for January is expected at 1.5% Details: Retail sales fell -0.4% to $70.0B in December 3 of 9 subsectors declined, led by motor vehicle & parts dealers Core retail

Key Points for crude oil traders and investors: Crude oil futures have broken out of a classic daily bull flag pattern. The $65 area on crude is now a key line that separates strength from failure. UCO is forming higher lows near $25, showing buyers are stepping in on dips. As long as support holds,

Summary: Westpac says January’s jobs data show a stable unemployment rate at 4.1%, but participation declines are doing most of the work. Underlying hiring remains subdued, and a rebound in participation could lift unemployment back toward 4.5% in coming months. — Westpac says Australia’s January labour force report paints a steadier picture than the volatility

Final Q3 GDP was +4.4% Consumer spending (PCE):+2.4% GDP final sales (excluding inventories) +1.2% vs +2.6% expected GDP price index (GDP deflator): vs +2.9% expected Core PCE (excluding food & energy): +2.7% vs +2.6% expected Business investment (nonresidential fixed investment): 2025 annual GDP at about 2.23% Contributions to GDP in percentage points: Government -0.9 vs

The group is the one managing the infamous Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), which provides fiscal budget projections and economic analysis of major US legislation without advocacy. And by their estimates, the US could owe over $175 billion in tariff refunds should the Supreme Court rule against Trump’s broad emergency tariffs. As a reminder, the

The major US indices are opening mixed with the Dow industrial average down -0.37%. The S&P index trading above and below unchanged, and the NASDAQ index up around 0.20%. As a reminder The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to release opinions this morning, with announcements typically issued at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on scheduled opinion

In a 6-3 decision, the US Supreme Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. “The Government thus concedes, as it must, that the President enjoys no inherent authority to impose tariffs during peacetime,” the Supreme Court ruled. “If Congress were to relinquish that weapon

Blue Owl permanently restricted withdrawals from its $1.6bn private-debt fund, selling $1.4bn of loans at 99.7% of par and planning a 30% NAV distribution in Q1. El-Erian questioned whether it’s an early warning sign for private credit, though not a 2008-scale threat. Summary: $1.6bn Blue Owl Capital Corp. II fund permanently restricts investor withdrawals. Blue

Japan’s February flash PMIs strengthened across the board, with composite output rising to 53.8 and manufacturing gaining momentum. Export demand surged, backlogs hit record highs and price pressures firmed, while business confidence improved. Summary: Composite PMI: 53.8 (Jan 53.1), fastest growth since May 2023. Services PMI: 53.8 (Jan 53.7), quickest pace since May 2024. Manufacturing

University of Michigan sentiment index for February final: Sentiment 56.6 versus 57.3 current conditions 56.6 versus 57.7 expectations 56.6 versus 56 6 preliminary 5 year inflation 3.3% versus 3.4% preliminary 1 year inflation 3.4% versus 3.5% preliminary From Consumer Director Joanne HsuConsumer sentiment stagnated this month with very little change, just 0.2 index points higher

The bounce here sees silver trade up by over 3% today to now above $81. It’s a solid recovery from the lows on Tuesday, which saw a dip just under the $72 level at the time. The price swings this week are not as volatile as what we’ve seen in late January to early February

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar is now trading higher against most major currencies after another slate of strong US data this week and the US-Iran tensions potentially supporting the greenback. The market is still pricing 57 bps of easing by year-end but the crowded bearish positioning on the US dollar requires strong reasons for

Prior 49.1 Services PMI 53.4 vs 52.4 expected Prior 52.4 Composite PMI 53.1 vs 52.3 expected Prior 52.1 Key Points: Business activity growth ticks up to four-month high in February Comment: Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Hurray, German industry is growing again.

Prior +0.4% Retail sales +4.5% vs +2.8% y/y expected Prior +2.5%; revised to +1.9% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +2.0% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.3% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +5.5% vs +3.6% y/y expected Prior +3.1%; revised to +2.5% That’s an impressive beat in terms of the monthly figure, with the headline being

Prior 51.6 Manufacturing PMI 50.8 vs 50.0 expected Prior 49.5 Composite PMI 51.9 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.3 The most notable thing here is the rebound in the manufacturing sector, with the reading there being a 44-month high. That is largely led by the recovery in Germany, which saw its industry return to expansion territory

MUFG says recent dollar gains driven by stronger U.S. data and cautious Fed minutes are unlikely to last. Political uncertainty and concerns about Fed independence under President Trump may keep investor sentiment toward the greenback fragile. Summary: MUFG’s Derek Halpenny says recent U.S. dollar strength is unlikely to be sustained. Durable goods, housing and industrial

Despite the Fed staying in pause mode to start the year, market expectations are still leaning towards more rate cuts down the road. And that is reflected by the pricing in Fed funds futures as well. Currently, we’re still seeing traders price in ~57 bps of rate cuts by year-end. The recent solid US economic

Will not pursue reckless fiscal policy that undermines market confidence To push bold investment through multi-year budgets and long-term funds The necessary spending will be funded through the initial budget as much as possible Will steadily lower the debt-to-GDP ratio and restore fiscal sustainability To maintain market trust and clarify concrete fiscal indicators Will ensure

Prior 54.0 Manufacturing PMI 52.0 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.8 Composite PMI 53.9 vs 53.2 expected Prior 53.7 Key Findings: Rebound in UK private sector business activity continues in February, but job losses persist Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The early PMI data for February bring further signs of

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlights will be the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. Given the market pricing, we will likely need surprisingly soft data for the Eurozone to trigger a decent market reaction as traders could start betting on rate cuts. Better than expected data is

Prior 48.4 Manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 51.0 expected Prior 51.2 Composite PMI 49.9 vs 49.7 expected Prior 49.1 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.2% The much softer reading here owes a lot to base effects, in particular the impact of energy prices. That is also the main reason for the drag on the year-on-year reading, which was 3.0% lower than January 2025. When energy prices are excluded, producer prices in January 2026 rose by 0.6% compared with

INR tests 91 but steadies as suspected RBI selling checks holiday-thinned, NDF-led pressure. Summary: INR last: 90.9450 on the interbank matching system after briefly slipping past 91. Traders said the Reserve Bank of India likely sold U.S. dollars before the local spot open to prevent a cleaner break above 91/$. Offshore 1-month NDF had pointed

Lagarde signals intent to finish ECB term, amid politically sensitive succession chatter. Westpac warns Australia’s unemployment rate masks soft demand and falling participation FX INTERVENTION: Reports the Reserve Bank of India is selling USD/INR to support the rupee Goldman: Gold to grind higher to $5,400/oz by end-2026 on strong demand NZD, AUD fall as RBNZ

Japan inflation cools sharply in January, easing near-term pressure on the BoJ. Summary: Headline CPI y/y: 1.5% (exp. 1.6%, prev. 2.1%) — lowest since March 2022. Core CPI (ex fresh food) y/y: 2.0% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.4%). Core-core CPI (ex food & energy) y/y: 2.6% (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.9%). National CPI ex fresh food &

Ether futures analysis: medium-term structure stabilizing after heavy two-sided trade Ether futures are trading near $1,960 after a volatile stretch that saw sharp downside pressure followed by responsive buying. The broader crypto space remains sensitive to macro headlines and equity sentiment, but ETH is currently attempting to stabilize rather than extend lower. What underlying crypto

For months on end, it has been hard to ignore the political side of things when viewing the Japanese yen outlook. The snap election results earlier this month continued to put the focus on that, with intervention risks as high as ever at the moment. The general feeling is that the yen is ready to

RBNZ signals steady hand on rates, nudging NZD lower and dragging AUD with it. Summary: NZD and AUD both fall, with Kiwi leading declines during Asian trade. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr (Breman remarks cited) says inflation likely already back inside target band in Q1. RBNZ confident inflation will return to the 2% midpoint within 12

Lagarde told The Wall Street Journal she expects to complete her term as ECB president through October 2027, dampening speculation of an early departure that could allow France to influence the succession before its 2027 election. Summary: Christine Lagarde told The Wall Street Journal (gated) she expects to serve as ECB president until October 2027.

This is just a post with the data. I’ll have more, analysis and implications posted separately. Note that the 1.5% overall pace is below 2% for the first time since March 2022. The latest on the BoJ: BOJ expected to reach 1% by mid-year as yen intervention risks rise near 160 USD/JPY JBA chief says

Goldman sees gold grinding higher to $5,400/oz by end-2026, with upside skew from diversification. Summary: Goldman expects central bank gold buying to re-accelerate in 2026 at the pace seen in 2025. This is in a conservative base case that assumes no additional private-sector diversification beyond current trends. Goldman’s core view: central bank demand plus private

The oil market continues to signal a rising chance of US military intervention in Iran. Oil had been bouncing around in a range of $62-$66 as headlines around Iran shifted the narrative but today crude broke out. It’s up $1.34 to $66.53 and has simultaneously broke above the October high. Oil briefly bounced around today

NQ (Nasdaq Futures) analysis: Energy heats up, Tech cools down as rotation pressure builds Nasdaq futures (NQ) are trading around 24,844, modestly lower on the session. The broader S&P 500 heatmap shows internal divergence rather than broad liquidation, while crude oil futures (CL) are trading near $66.46, up about +2.17% on the day, confirming renewed

Canadian Tire reported Q4 numbers today and the read-through on the Canadian consumer is clear: they’re still spending and there are no indications of weakness. Comp sales came in at +4.2% across all banners, with SportChek ripping at +9.5% and Mark’s up 7.2%. Normalized EPS jumped 38% to $4.47. What’s interesting from the call this

Prior was +8530K Gasoline -3213K vs -284K exp Distillates -4566K vs -1440K exp Refinery utilization +1.6% vs +0.4% exp The huge swings in this report continue. The API data from late yesterday showed: Crude -609K Gasoline -312K Distillates -1560K WTI crude oil was up $1.46 to $66.65 per barrel. The market is focused on the

The Minneapolis Fed President is something of a hawk lately and is out with some comments: Fed is close on both mandates Crypto is “utterly useless” AI could be a boost to productivity in the next 5-10 years Fed is cautious about using AI internally Fed is committed to making the best decisions based on

Walmart shares are indicated flat in the pre-market despite what looks like a solid beat on the top and bottom line. The quarter itself was strong — but the guidance is pointing to a deceleration. Shares initially fell on the weaker guidance but the CFO said it’s prudent to start the year with conservative guidance

There were weeks of breathless commentary about 5% GDP growth in the US in the fourth quarter and now here we are — less than 24 hours from the release — and the tracker has been revised all the way down to 3.0%. The quarter started off with a super-strong trade balance reading for October

Trump says: We have to make a meaningful deal with Iran It has to be a meaningful deal or something bad will happen Confirms he ordered 22 more B2 bombers ordered to Middle East We will find out about Iran in about 10 days We may have to take it a step further on Iran

Prior was -9.3% Pending sales index vs 71.8 prior This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq failed to rally on the slightly soft US CPI report last Friday and continued to range. We now have another major risk for the market as a potential US-Iran war could trigger a big selloff. In fact, we got a report from Axios yesterday suggesting that a war between the U.S.

Tech giants falter while consumer defensive stocks rally Sector Overview The US stock market is encountering a mixed session today, as tech giants experience downturns, while consumer defensive stocks shine brightly. The technology sector, particularly semiconductors, is facing challenges with widespread declines, heavily impacting market stalwarts. 📉 Semiconductors: Key players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold started to find some footing yesterday as risks of a US-Iran conflict increased. In fact, we got a report from Axios suggesting that a war between the U.S. and Iran now appears increasingly likely. According to the sources cited, there is currently no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran.

The present situation catch up is that Switzerland is squaring off against deflationary pressures once again. While not quite yet reaching deflation territory, the worries are mounting as inflation pressures have fallen off dramatically in the second half of last year. Core prices are still hanging in there but it feels like only a matter

We are getting close to some sense of where monetary policy is balanced between the inflation objective and full employment The unemployment rate has gone up and that’s very much of a concern On January inflation data: these are good numbers from headline perspective and also from core With respect to core inflation, not quite

Japanese firms remain wary of fiscal discipline under Takaichi, even as concerns over China tensions ease. Summary: Two-thirds of Japanese firms express concern about PM Takaichi’s fiscal discipline Markets rattled by proposed temporary food tax suspension IMF urges fiscal restraint to maintain bond market stability Fewer firms now fear business fallout from China tensions Weaker

The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes quietly remove December’s “2% in 2028” timing, underscoring uncertainty. Summary: January minutes drop the explicit “2% by 2028” timing that appeared in December Staff now say inflation is “slightly higher, on balance” than the December forecast Tariff effects are expected to wane around mid-year, with inflation then

RBNZ sees the cutting cycle as done, but weak consumption and sticky inflation keep risks two-sided. Summary: RBNZ’s Silk says the central scenario is the easing cycle is over, with risks both ways Downside risk: weak consumption and a softer household recovery Upside risk: sticky inflation, meaning tightening remains possible if pressures persist RBNZ says

The FOMC minutes stated that Jerome Powell was selected to serve as Chair for 2026, with the appointment lasting until a successor is formally chosen. In practical terms, that means Powell would continue to preside over the FOMC, including at meetings later than May, provided he remains a Federal Reserve Governor and the incoming Chair

The report mostly highlights how the US has been pressuring Canada on multiple fronts to get what they want out of any deal. And the crux of it mostly underscores the notion that the US administration currently views that the USMCA pact is not one that is set in stone. That being it is a

BOJ expected to reach 1% by mid-year as yen intervention risks rise near 160 USD/JPY NVDA Stock Analysis Shows It Is Stronger Than You Might Think RBNZ to increase monetary policy decisions to eight per year from 2027 Mega-cap tech most under-owned in 17 years, says Morgan Stanley South Korea KOSPI hits record high as

The rising tensions and expectations of a potential military conflict over the weekend is now keeping markets on edge. Oil prices rallied yesterday, with WTI crude moving up by over 4% to $65 levels now. The jump also coincides with a solid rebound off the 200-day moving average once more, holding since the start of

Summary: JPMorgan says renewed FX hedging by foreign investors could add fresh pressure on the US dollar Stronger non-US currencies are increasing incentives to hedge US equity exposure Fed rate hikes are seen as off the table, reducing yield support for the dollar AUD and NZD forecasts upgraded; upside risks flagged for EUR Bank remains

If there was a fight on the street between two strangers would you join in? That’s the analogy that traders would consider when there is high drama in a particular stock or sector. Right now it’s software stocks as their being slammed lower on fears that AI will disrupt the sector. Unless you already had

Hanzawa says that: “There is a reasonable possibility that the BOJ will raise interest rates as early as in March or April.” For now, markets are not really expecting one to come next month at least. That as the Japanese central bank will still have to wait on how the spring wage negotiations play out.

Headlines: Geopolitics in focus in the second half of the week Oil prices surge amid US-Iran war risks: a conflict could trigger a massive spike Renewed US-Iran tensions lift gold prices as traders hedge into the weekend risk Trump reportedly mulls shaking up North American trade pact, leaving Canada on the outs Foreign holdings of

Economists bring forward BOJ hike expectations and see yen intervention risk near 160. Summary: All 76 economists expect the BOJ to hold rates steady in March Majority now see policy rate at 1% by end-June, earlier than pre-election view Growing concern about fiscal expansion and yen weakness 69% expect currency intervention if USD/JPY nears 160

Here are a couple of views from market analysts on the EUR/USD currency pair, with it hovering around the “sweet spot” for the ECB. As we know, the central bank is viewing it as being “complicated” if price does move towards the 1.20 level. So, keeping as it is now would be somewhat comfortable for

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar is now trading higher against most major currencies after the hot US NFP report and the slightly soft US CPI data of last week. The market is still pricing 58 bps of easing by year-end but the crowded bearish positioning on the US dollar requires strong reasons for the

This builds on the headlines from yesterday: ECB president Lagarde reportedly poised to leave the central bank before her term expires ECB says Lagarde remains committed to her role as president The latest report here cites four sources in saying that Lagarde told colleagues in a private message that she remains focused on her job

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices recouped all last week’s losses as risks of a US-Iran conflict increased. In fact, we got a report from Axios suggesting that a war between the U.S. and Iran now appears increasingly likely. According to the sources cited, there is currently no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran

If the outlook for inflation changes, committee will adjust policy stance to ensure inflation returns to target Wage growth is modest, we do have spare capacity There are uncertainties about how firms adjust pricing behaviour as the economy recovers Seeing consumption starting to increase, stabilizing job market and falling inflation provide support Household consumption starting

This is a day later than normal this week due to the US holiday on Monday. — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are quite different.The

The Aussie jobs data (preview here) is the focus of the data calendar here today. Note that while Singapore is back from holiday today mainland China and Hong Kong are still out. Liquididity in markets will be somewhat thinner than usual. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20-year notes at a high yield of 4.664%, which tailed the when-issued level (4.644%) by 2.0 basis points — a sign of softer demand. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.36X, below the 6-month average of 2.66X, reflecting weaker overall participation. Dealers were forced to take down 17.6%

The Dow and S&P rose for the 3rd straight session while of the NASDAQ index increase for the 2nd in a row. Although higher, the major indices are closing near the middle of the data trading range. Yields moving higher and they slightly more hawkish Fed led to a rotation off of the highs for

There are a couple to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1790-00 levels. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but could play a key role in terms of limiting price action on the day. The expiries are

The USDCAD is pushing to fresh highs for the day — and the week — as broad USD strength drives the pair higher. What makes the move notable is that it’s occurring despite a sharp rally in crude oil, which is up 4.59% on heightened geopolitical tensions following a reported U.S. strike on Iran. Normally,

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases that won’t change anything for the respective central banks. The focus remains on the US-Iran tensions as risks of a military conflict increased following yesterday’s Axios report saying that a war was looking increasingly

NVIDIA stock analysis: underlying activity suggests cautious bullish bias as NVDA outperforms NDX and peers NVIDIA (NVDA) is trading near ~$188 after rebounding sharply from the ~$170 area, while the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) remains in a broader repair phase below recent highs near ~$26,000. Technology shares have experienced volatility, but NVDA has shown relative resilience

In wrapping up the 2025 year, foreign holdings of US Treasuries dropped slightly in December to $9.27 trillion. That compares with the peak seen in November at $9.36 trillion. The $88.4 billion drop might not seem much but it still represents the largest monthly decline since late 2022. But after hitting a record high in

Japan’s machinery orders rebound sharply, reinforcing capex strength despite fiscal caution. Summary: Core machinery orders surged 19.1% m/m in December vs 4.5% expected Annual growth jumped to 16.8% y/y vs 3.9% forecast Rebound follows sharp November declines Data support the BOJ’s outlook for continued economic expansion Corporate survey (report earlier) shows ongoing fiscal caution despite

S&P and Dow industrial average closehigher for the 3rd consecutive day RBNZ Governor Breman: Not at all comfortable with having inflation at 3.1% FOMC Minutes: Almost all Fed officials favored holding rates steady Fed’s Bowman still concerned about labor market, says recent jobs report ‘a bit strange’ Bitcoin Technicals:The price of bitcoin is consolidating in

Netflix stock analysis: buyers quietly rebuilding control on the medium-term structure NFLX is trading near $78, rebounding from the $75 area and approaching resistance at $79-$80. Performance has been weak across multiple timeframes, with the stock down apx. 30% over 3 months and 35% over 6 months, highlighting the broader corrective backdrop. Two major points

Summary: Analysts expect a moderation in employment growth in January following December’s outsized gain, with the unemployment rate seen ticking slightly higher. The labour market is viewed as broadly steady rather than re-tightening, though January’s seasonal volatility adds uncertainty. — Australia’s January labour force survey will be closely watched as policymakers assess whether the recent

Two officials dissented in favor of 25 basis point rate cut at Jan. meeting (Waller and Miran) Almost all participants supported maintaining rates at 3.5%-3.75% Several participants open to ‘two-sided’ guidance including possible rate hikes Vast majority judged downside risks to employment had diminished Most officials saw risk of inflation stalling above 2% target Staff

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, with price action compressing after the prior directional move. On the hourly chart, the market has been tracking along an upward-sloping trendline that connects the February 12 low to the February 17 low. That trendline has quietly acted as near-term support, helping to steady price during recent pullbacks. Today,

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is an interesting case as she turned dovish last year as she as being considered for Fed Chair. She hasn’t abandoned that position but highlighted something that many in the market are puzzled by. A number of US labor market indicators have shown weakness lately but then last Wednesday there was

Iran foreign minister: There have been good developments compared to last round of talks US February NAHB housing market index 36 vs 38 expected February Empire Fed manufacturing survey +7.1 vs +6.98 expected Canada January CPI +2.3% y/y vs +2.4% expected Fed’s Goolsbee: Servies inflation is not tame Fed’s Barr: Prudent for Fed to take

The ECB has won the battle against inflation Inflation is not too low in France French inflation undershooting on temporary factors Decision to leave early is personal Villeroy is the governor of the French central bank and he’s generally considered a dove, although he changed his stance to neutral several months ago like most other

Yesterday oil and gold prices sank after Iran’s foreign minister had an upbeat take following meetings with US officials but today a leak is sending the opposite signal. WTI crude oil is up $2.18 to $64.51 Gold is up $121 to $4998 The gains — and a US dollar rally — have been driven in

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been trading mostly sideways after the hot US NFP report and the slightly soft US CPI data of last week. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 60 bps of easing seen by year-end but overall, the data didn’t really change anything in the bigger picture. The

White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett crossed a line today when he said the authors of a paper who said US companies were paying tariffs should be ‘disciplined’. The paper in question concluded that 90% of the tariff burden is being shouldered domestically and he called the “the worst paper I’ve ever seen in the

Prior was +0.4% Capacity utilization 76.2% vs 76.5% expected Manufacturing output +0.6% vs +0.4% expected The Federal Reserve’s industrial production data for the fall was complicated by delayed releases stemming from the government shutdown, with October and November figures published jointly on December 23 and December data following on January 16. Despite the reporting disruptions,

Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are posting solid gains today, with the S&P up 0.85% and the NASDAQ higher by 1.25%. After recent consolidation and downside probes, buyers are stepping back in — but key technical levels will determine whether this bounce turns into something more durable. NASDAQ: Key Levels Define Control The

Doesn’t comment on meeting with Ueda or FX Hopes BOJ works closely with the government Wants to durably achieve 2% inflation target accompanied by wage grains No change to our stance to seek market confidence in Japan’s finances by achieving fiscal stability, stably lowering debt-to-GDP ratio The start of this year looked like 2026 could

It’s rather common to see former BOJ policymakers deliver bold remarks after they have left the central bank. And this time is no different, with Yamamoto offering up some comments in an interview with MNI. He is one to have spent 36 years at the BOJ, before leaving to head the Office KY Initiative. His

Prior month housing starts 1.246M Prior month building permits 1.411M Housing Starts (December SAAR) 1,404,000 total starts vs estimate of 1.309M +6.2% m/m (vs. 1,322,000 in November). Last month -4.6% -7.3% y/y (vs. 1,514,000 in Dec 2024) Single-family: 981,000 (+4.1% m/m) 5+ units: 402,000 2025 total starts: 1,358,700 (-0.6% vs. 2024) Building Permits (December SAAR)

This relates to the earlier story here: ECB president Lagarde reportedly poised to leave the central bank before her term expires The central bank refuting the report isn’t surprising and with things like this, it will never be confirmed until it is officially announced. So, don’t expect any real confirmation by the ECB on this

Prior was +5.3% Durable goods orders ex-transport +0.9% vs +0.3% expected Prior ex-transport +0.4% Durable goods ex-defense -2.5% vs +6.5% prior Non-defense capital goods ex-air +0.6% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.4% Shipments +1.0% vs -0.2% prior (revised to -0.3%) USD/JPY was trading at 153.66 ahead of the data, the market was pricing in 60 bps

Prior +3.4% Core CPI +3.1% vs +3.0% y/y expected Prior +3.2% The inflation picture continues to point to some softening, but not to the degree to make the BOE feel comfortable enough. The drop in headline annual inflation is largely due to base effects, with energy prices being the main factor. Overall prices for motor

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been trading mostly sideways after the hot US NFP report and the slightly soft US CPI data of last week. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 60 bps of easing seen by year-end but overall, the data didn’t really change anything in the bigger picture. The

The showing yesterday was a bit of a mixed one but it continues to highlight some resilience in dip buying in US equities for now. That despite all the concerns on the AI trade and software stocks in the past two weeks. The S&P 500 was down as much as 1% overnight but rallied in

Headlines: The New Zealand Dollar drops across the board as RBNZ disappoints the hawks The risk mood picks up in European morning trade A major war between US and Iran looks imminent – report ECB president Lagarde reportedly poised to leave the central bank before her term expires ECB’s Villeroy: The ECB has won the

Sector Overview The technology sector is making significant strides today, led by semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA), which has soared by 2.01%. The semiconductor segment, despite some declines such as AMD dipping 2.70%, is buoyed by positive performances from companies like Texas Instruments (TXN) and Analog Devices (ADI), which are up 0.45% and 3.48% respectively. Meanwhile,

In today’s Kickstart video, I break down the three major pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. The dollar is modestly stronger overall, up about 0.23% vs JPY, barely higher by 0.08% vs EUR, and slightly lower by 0.05% vs GBP. So while the USD tone is firmer against the yen, it’s more mixed elsewhere. Technically,

Westpac’s Leading Index slowed to near-flat in January, signalling growth momentum has slipped back to trend. Consumer and housing weakness offset commodity support, with GDP still seen at 2.5% in 2026. Summary: Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index slows to +0.02% in January (from +0.44%). Growth momentum shifts from slightly above trend to broadly in line with

The FOMC meeting minutes won’t be the only standout event on the economic calendar today. This is one that will also be heavily watched by traders and investors, that especially since the US dollar has been heavily scrutinised in recent months. For all the talk about de-dollarisation and market players selling US assets, it hasn’t

AI may not yet have boosted corporate profits or enhanced employee productivity, but it has already created a shortage of memory chips, critical components in the technology industry, as manufacturers prioritize supply for hyperscalers over the chips used in laptops and smartphones. Tesla, Apple, and other big companies have already warned that DRAM shortages, the

Earlier, we got a report from Axios suggesting that a war between the U.S. and Iran now appears increasingly likely. According to the sources cited, there is currently no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran. They also noted that, given Trump’s recent military build-up and escalated rhetoric, it may be difficult for

There are earnings weeks where volatility is isolated. And then there are weeks where positioning across multiple sectors is already stretched, and earnings become the release valve. This one feels like the latter. Walmart, DoorDash, Booking Holdings, Analog Devices, and Deere do not share business models. What they share right now is elevated options pricing

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been trading mostly sideways after the hot US NFP report and the slightly soft US CPI data of last week. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 60 bps of easing seen by year-end but overall, the data didn’t really change anything in the bigger picture. The

Wall Street showed much resilience yesterday, with the S&P 500 once again hanging on a key technical support level. That’s leading to a further bounce today with US futures now sitting up 0.6%. In Europe, that’s also translating to more solid gains across the board as the risk mood perks up. DAX +0.8% CAC 40

The S&P 500 looked like it would continue its malaise this week but after a poor start, it’s turned around nicely. The index is now at a session high, up 20 points, or 0.3% to 6858. That’s 70 points above the session low from the mid-morning. Lately we’ve seen some late selloffs so I don’t

The latest FT report says that Lagarde is expected to depart from the ECB well before her term as president expires, according to a person familiar with her thinking. It is said that ideally she wants to make an exit before the French presidential election in April next year. In doing so, it will allow

The sources cited note that there is currently no evidence of a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran on the horizon. At this stage, the report says that Trump’s military and rhetorical build-ups is going to prove tough to back down from, especially if without any major concessions from Iran regarding its nuclear program.

5PAY had an exciting 2025, and it’s kicking off 2026 with even more exciting news. After taking home an award for offering the best payment gateway APAC, the company is very proud to announce its new award win, but this time in the MEA region – ‘Best Payment Gateway MEA’ at the prestigious UF AWARDS

Japan’s manufacturers rebounded in February to +13, but services sentiment eased to +25, highlighting an uneven recovery. Forward indicators point to modest softening into May. Summary: Reuters Tankan: manufacturers index +13 in Feb (vs +7 Jan), highest since November. Non-manufacturers slip to +25 (vs +32 Jan), signalling softer services momentum. Machinery strongest; transport machinery weaker

USD/INR is expected to open flat as mildly firmer US front-end yields support the dollar, while persistent RBI offers around 90.70–90.80 cap upside and keep the pair range-bound. Summary: USD/INR seen opening largely flat around 90.66–90.70, with push-pull forces intact. Mild hawkish repricing in the US (front-end yields firmer) is supporting the dollar. Dollar index

Prior +0.8% HICP +0.4% vs +0.4% y/y prelim Prior +0.7% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The IMF urged Japan to continue gradual rate hikes toward neutral by 2027 and warned against cutting the consumption tax, highlighting fiscal risks as Takaichi’s government pushes ahead with tax relief plans. Summary: International Monetary Fund urges Japan to keep raising rates gradually to neutral by 2027. Warns against cutting the consumption tax, saying it

The Scotiabank Global Equity Research team dropped a meaty note this morning breaking down six major gold bull cycles over the past 50 years, and the conclusion is pretty straightforward: this one isn’t over. Gold is sitting around $5,025/oz right now, up 209% from the October 2022 low of $1,628. That’s a heck of a

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight was the UK CPI report. The data came mostly in line with expectations, so it didn’t change anything in terms of market pricing. The BoE is still expected to cut rates at the next meeting. Looking ahead, we don’t have much on the agenda other than

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision and press conference is the focus for the session here. RBNZ statement due 18 February at 2pm New Zealand time (0100 GMT / 2000 US Eastern time on Tuesday 17 February). Previews: RBNZ expected to hold rates as higher food price inflation adds limited pressure Likely RBNZ on

Goldman raises its AUD/USD path to 0.72–0.74 over 12 months, citing RBA hawkishness, relative policy divergence and valuation support, while flagging commodity and global risk risks. Summary: Goldman Sachs lifts AUD/USD forecasts to 0.72 (3m), 0.73 (6m), 0.74 (12m). Upgrade driven by a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia and expectation of another May hike. AUD

RBNZ sees inflation falling toward target as recovery slowly builds, stays dovish USD/INR steady as US yields support dollar, RBI offers cap upside Japan outlines US investment projects, including $33bn gas power for data centres RBNZ’s Breman flags possible year-end hike, but says policy stays accommodative Recap – RBNZ holds at 2.25% but brings forward

The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25%, signalling inflation is returning to target while revising its future rate path slightly higher. Policy remains accommodative for now, but gradual normalisation is expected. Summary: Reserve Bank of New Zealand leaves OCR unchanged at 2.25%. Inflation slightly above 1–3% band at end-2025 but expected back inside target this

This post is just for getting the decision out quickly. Added – MUCH more here, details analysis etc: RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25%, lifts projected rate path modestly higher NZD/USD has been marked a little lower on the announcement. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The RBNZ held rates at 2.25% but brought forward the implied timing of its first hike, signalling a slightly firmer outlook than in November while maintaining that policy will remain accommodative for now. Summary: Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the OCR at 2.25%, as expected. Policy still described as accommodative for some time. OCR

A new CIBC equity research note caught my eye this week. It’s about the waste industry — not exactly the sexiest corner of the market — but it lays out a framework that I think applies to a much broader set of companies. The core idea: AI can add 130 to 270 basis points of

Governor Breman reinforced the RBNZ’s “accommodative for some time” stance while acknowledging a possible year-end hike, stressing any move depends on stronger growth and inflation pressure and that normalisation would be gradual. Summary Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman reinforced the post-decision message: policy stays accommodative, with only gradual normalisation ahead. Breman said

In line data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25%, reiterated that policy will stay accommodative while inflation returns toward target, and brought forward its projections for a potential first hike, reinforcing a data-dependent, gradual normalisation path. Summary: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the OCR at 2.25%, reinforcing that policy remains supportive. The updated OCR track

Japan’s trade minister outlined three US investment projects worth $600m, $2.1bn and $33.3bn, spanning artificial diamonds and energy infrastructure for data centres, and said Tokyo is coordinating with Washington while preparing a second batch of deals. Japan’s trade minister Akazawa outlined three US investment projects: $600m artificial diamond, $2.1bn crude oil, $33.3bn gas-fired thermal power

China achieved 5% growth in 2025 on export strength, but analysts warn that sustaining momentum in 2026 will require a proactive shift toward boosting domestic demand and stabilising housing. Summary: China met its 5.0% GDP growth target in 2025, supported heavily by net exports. Export gains to Asia, Europe and Latin America offset US trade

Exports to the US -5% y/y to EU +29.6% to China +32% y/y I’ll have more to come on this separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Comments from Fed Governor Michael Barr in a speech: Prudent for Fed to take time, look at data, before changing policy again. Wants to see more evidence inflation ebbing to 2% target. Still sees ‘significant risk’ inflation will stay over 2%. Reasonable to think price pressures will further cool. Job market in balance but vulnerable

The GBPUSD has now made two clear downside runs beginning from yesterday’s session high at 1.3661 — and that sequencing matters. The first leg lower took the pair from 1.3661 down to 1.3550 during the late Asian / early European session. That move had momentum behind it. Sellers were in control, pushing price through intraday

Dollar positioning has reached its most negative level on record in Bank of America’s survey, reflecting broad expectations of US softness and potential Fed easing, with labour market risks seen as the main catalyst for further weakness. Summary: Investor positioning in the US dollar has fallen to its most negative level since at least January

Sentiment is one of the best market indicators out there. In fact, I’d argue that the only reason to be on the stock market internet is to get news and — perhaps more importantly — to gauge sentiment. I don’t think I’ve ever felt it was so tough to figure out where sentiment really lies.

Gold stays rangebound amid Chinese holiday and lack of catalysts. What’s next? Germany February ZEW economic sentiment index 58.3 vs 65.2 expected RBNZ preview: risk of disappointment given the high expectations AI bubble top tail risk, long gold most crowded trade according to BofA survey Germany January final CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim UK

Japan’s 5-year JGB auction drew steady demand with a 3.10 bid-to-cover ratio and a modestly tighter tail, though participation was slightly softer compared with stronger sales last year. Japan sold ¥1.89 trillion of 5-year JGBs with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.10 (vs 3.08 prior). Stop rate (highest accepted yield) came in at 1.646%, average yield

The USDJPY has spent the last four trading days rotating in a defined up-and-down range, reflecting a market that is consolidating rather than trending. The low for the move was established last Thursday, and since that time the pair has carved out a pattern of progressively higher lows. That subtle shift in structure suggests that

The price of Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase since rebounding from the February 6th low near $59,930. After the sharp decline from the January 28th high near $90,352, the market managed to recover approximately 38.2% of that prior drop — a key Fibonacci retracement level that often acts as resistance in corrective bounces.

ING expects the RBNZ to hold in February 18 but signal a more hawkish stance as inflation surprises to the upside, forecasting two hikes from 3Q and medium-term NZD strength. Summary of their views below. Earlier: RBNZ expected to hold rates as higher food price inflation adds limited pressure Likely RBNZ on hold decision February

Prior was 37 Current single-family home sales 41 vs 41 prior Prospective buyers 22 vs 23 prior Home sales expectations over the next six months 46 vs 49 prior It’s curious that home builder stocks hit a record on Friday via the XHB ETF. The market is looking way ahead towards a lowering of interest

The two parties will work on potential agreement documents and exchange them Two parties still have topics on which they still need to work This does not mean that we will reach an agreement soon but the path was started Oil is down $1 on the headlines. This article was written by Adam Button at

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EUR/USD 1.2000 (EUR 940.83 mn) 1.1900 (EUR 1.34 bn) 1.1700 (EUR 975.72 mn) USD/JPY 156.00 (US$ 1.95 bn) 151.00 (US$ 1.09 bn) GBP/USD 1.3560 (GBP 766.08 mn) USD/CHF 0.7730 (US$ 694.69 mn) USD/CAD 1.3600 (US$ 1.02 bn) 1.3500 (US$ 973.00 mn) AUD/USD 0.7025 (AUD 449.18 mn) NZD/USD 0.6100 (NZD 140.98 mn) 0.5975 (NZD 196.92 mn)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% tomorrow. Alongside the decision, we’ll also get the latest Monetary Policy Statement and updated economic projections. Analysts expect the central bank to signal an earlier start to rate hikes, with the first increase seen in

Today’s stock market reflects a volatile landscape with a notable downturn in the technology sector, highlighted by declines in major companies and mixed results across various industries. 🔍 Sector Overview The technology sector is experiencing a challenging day, with software and semiconductor giants facing significant declines. Notably, Oracle (ORCL) decreased by 1.85% and Microsoft (MSFT)

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Oil prices remain steady as Iran’s Strait of Hormuz drills heighten supply risk ahead of US nuclear talks, while OPEC+ output decisions and prospects for diplomatic progress temper upside. Summary: Oil prices steady as Iran conducts naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz ahead of US nuclear talks. President Donald Trump signals indirect involvement in

In EURUSD last week, sellers leaned against the 50% retracement of the decline from the late-January high to the early-February low at 1.19230. The high on Tuesday reached 1.1928, with additional swing highs at 1.1926–1.1925, effectively stalling upside momentum. Buyers had their opportunity — and they failed. That rejection set the tone for Wednesday’s slide,

Details: New orders 5.8 vs 6.6 prior Shipments -1.0 vs 16.3 prior Employment 4.0 vs -9.0 prior Average employee workweek 2.1 versus -5.4 prior Prices paid 49.1 vs 42.8 prior Prices received 22.2 vs 14.4 prior Unfilled orders 9.1 vs -8.2 prior Delivery times 4.0 vs 0.0 prior Inventories 7.1 vs -2.1 prior Supply availability

Wants some evididence that inflation is headed back to 2% Considers a 3% policy rate a ‘loose’ estimate of neutral There are potentially ‘several’ more rate cuts if progress on inflation resumes Goods with higher tariffed content have tended to see larger price increases Recent headline inflation was partly pulled down due to base effects

Prior was +2.4% CPM m/m 0.0% vs +0.2% expected Prior CPI m/m -0.2% Core measures: BOC core 2.6% vs 2.8% prior BOC core m/m +0.2% vs -0.4% prior Core CPI % m/m +0.1% vs +0.3% prior CPI median +2.5% vs 2.5% expected (prior was 2.6%) CPI trim +2.4% vs 2.6% expected (prior was 2.7%) CPI

Japan 5-year JGB auction sees steady demand, bid-to-cover at 3.10 RBNZ to hold, signal rate hikes ahead, ING. Upside risks for NZ/US toward 0.62 by year-end India central bank finalises easier foreign borrowing rules for corporates Oil steady as Iran drills near Strait of Hormuz ahead of US talks US dollar positioning hits record underweight

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold found some support from the benign US CPI report on Friday where headline inflation eased slightly, while the core measure remained unchanged. We saw a small dovish repricing although the data didn’t change anything in the bigger picture. Yesterday, gold dropped again and eventually erased all the post-CPI gains. There was no

A former BOJ board member says April is the most likely timing for the next rate hike, as policymakers await wage data and updated forecasts, signaling a cautious but ongoing normalization process. This comes via Bloomberg (gated) Former BOJ board member Seiji Adachi says April is the most likely timing for the next rate hike.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight will be the UK employment report. The consensus is for 94K jobs added in the three months to December 2025 vs 82K in the prior month, with the Unemployment Rate expected to remain unchanged at 5.1%. The Average Earnings incl. Bonus is expected at at 4.6%

Global investors stay “uber-bullish” but asset price upside in Q1 is harder Commodity overweight at highest since May 2022 Equity overweight at highest since December 2024 Most optimistic on earnings since August 2021, but investors saying companies are “overinvesting” at new record AI bubble is top tail risk Long gold is the most crowded trade

I’ve been posting this information late last week and earlier this week, but ICYMi. Summary: Lunar New Year 2026 (Year of the Horse) falls on Tuesday 17 Feb. Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed Feb 16–23, reopening Tue Feb 24. Hong Kong is closed Feb 17–19, and reopens Fri Feb 20. Singapore (SGX)

Prior +1.8% HICP +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim Prior +2.0% Core CPI 2.5% y/y No changes to the preliminary estimates here. The reaction to the data was muted as expected given no surprises and no influence on ECB’s policy outlook. The agency notes: “The rise in overall consumer prices intensified at the start of the

An update on these two losing ground. There is no fresh news driving price. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior 5.1% Employment change 52k vs 94k expected Prior 82k Average weekly earnings +4.2% vs +4.6% 3m/y expected Prior +4.7% (revised to 4.6%) Average weekly earnings ex bonus +4.2% vs +4.2% 3m/y expected Prior +4.5% (revised to 4.4%) January payrolls change -11k Prior -43k (revised to -6k) As a general reminder, the UK labour market

Soft landing looks more plausible, but the Fed isn’t ready to call it done. This is via the Wall Street Journal (gated), I’ve summarised. Summary: Key US macro “vital signs” are aligned: inflation is easing, jobs are holding up, and growth remains solid. Core CPI slowed to 2.5% y/y in January, while unemployment edged down

China will implement zero tariffs on imports from 53 African countries from May 1, broadening earlier waivers and deepening economic ties, in contrast to the US administration’s more protectionist tariff stance. Summary: China to eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African nations from May 1, 2026. Policy applies to all countries with diplomatic ties to

India’s ECB rule changes widen offshore funding options for corporates, with a mild positive read-through for risk. Info via Reuters reporting. Summary: RBI finalised easier rules for external commercial borrowings (ECBs), expanding flexibility for corporates raising overseas debt. Eligible firms can borrow up to $1bn or 300% of net worth, in foreign currency or rupees.

RBA minutes show the February rate hike was driven by stronger-than-expected data, persistent broad-based inflation and easing financial conditions, with policymakers emphasising data dependence and no preset rate path. Board judged risks to inflation and employment had “shifted materially”, strengthening case for February hike. Members agreed inflation would likely stay above target too long without

EUR/USD: 1.1900 (EUR1.22bn), 1.2000 (EUR769.2mn), 1.2025 (EUR615.4mn) USD/JPY: 156.00 (US$1.87bn), 151.00 (US$986.2mn) USD/CAD: 1.3600 (US$1.11bn), 1.3625 (US$980.7mn), 1.3500 (US$943mn) AUD/USD: 0.7025 (AUD429.2mn), 0.6750 (AUD399.3mn) GBP/USD: 1.3560 (GBP317mn) More information here. Justin posted this yesterday: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Canada January housing starts 238.0K vs 257.5K expected Canada December manufacturing sales +0.6% vs +0.5% expected The EU and a 12-nation Indo-Pacific bloc are opening talks Four charts that highlight the worries that are driving markets right now The Pentagon is close to cutting ties with Anthropic and may label the AI company a supply

I’ve got four charts crossing the desk today that paint a complicated picture for the Fed and the USD. We have a specific sector falling off a cliff, broader resilience, a sentiment reset, and the one thing Jay Powell doesn’t want to see: inflation ticking back up. 1. The Tech Sector is falling off a

USD/JPY has been the most-interesting forex pair of the past couple years as volatility remains elevated and a pair of 18-big figure trends have unfolded. More recently, we’ve seen a sharp move down to 152.00 from 159.00 following the latest Japanese election. In it, Senae Takaichi’s LDP party won a super majority in the Lower

Ethereum is frozen as the crypto winter continues. And it’s not frozen in a great spot as it carves out a range near the lows of the year. I would have liked to have seen a stronger bounce after the drop since late January but so far it hasn’t materialized. Instead, it’s stuck near $2000

That will make for a quieter start to the new week, not least with Chinese markets also out today. As a reminder, it will be a one week break for China in conjunction with the Lunar New Year holidays. So, that will sap out a chunk of liquidity in Asia trading at least for the

Westpac says global growth rotation may weigh on the dollar. Summary: Westpac sees dollar drifting lower, with risks skewed to the downside. US growth expected above trend in 2026, driven by consumers and tech investment. Inflation pressures likely to persist, limiting Fed rate cuts to one more move. Euro and sterling forecast to outperform, reaching

The currency pair had a bit of a mixed showing last week, with the early Monday move seeing price climb back above 1.1900 before stalling closer to 1.1920. After that, the hotter-than-expected US jobs report here sent the pair back down below the figure level. And since then, the pair has been meandering just under

Prior was -1.2% Sales of C$71.0 billion Gains in 12 of 21 subsectors led by motor vehicles +12.0% Sales down 1.1% y/y Sales up 0.2% q/q Inventories -1.2% Unfilled orders +0.4% The drop in inventories is going to be a drag on Q4 GDP and the sales numbers in the quarter aren’t particularly inspiring either.

NZDUSD stays rangebound ahead of the RBNZ decision: traders expect no change to the OCR Oil prices in the spotlight ahead of the second round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva Silver’s faltering recovery last week not a good early sign It’s a big week for the British Pound as major UK economic data loom

Well, that seems to have been quite a short meeting. For some context, they were scheduled to meet at 0800 GMT (5pm Tokyo time) and it’s over and done with in less than 20 minutes. This is their first meeting since the snap election results, which resulted in a landslide victory for Takaichi and her

Prior was 282.4K Starts down 15% m/m Non-seasonally adjusted starts -3.5% m/m Canada’s housing construction picture in Q4 2025 told a story of fading momentum punctuated by a strong December finish. For the full year, CMHC reported total housing starts of 259,028 units across all areas, up 5.6% from 245,367 in 2024 — the fifth-highest

Japan bear flips & now bets on yen strength vs dollar, sterling & franc (sees +8% vs. CHF) Japan PM and BOJ chief Ueda will meet today at 5pm Tokyo time Westpac targets 1.22 for EUR/USD and $1.41 GBP/USD (long horizon) China deploys ‘national team’ investors to cool AI stock surge, selling intervention Japan junior

GDP growth fell well short of estimates. Preview is here I’ll have more to come on this separately, details and analysis. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Crude oil prices came under some pressure in the final part of last week as we got a couple of bearish catalysts. On the US-Iran negotiations front, there have been many mixed signals, but it looks like the Iranians are willing to compromise given the bleak consequences that a no-deal could have. In

NZ services expand modestly, but confidence and hiring remain subdued. Summary: PSI slips but stays in expansion, easing to 50.9 from 51.5 and remaining above the 50 threshold. Growth below long-run average, with January’s reading under the historical norm of 52.8. Activity and new orders positive, signalling ongoing turnover and forward demand support. Employment and

It’s a holiday in the US today and markets are closed but it’s also a holiday in China as lunar new year celebrations back up. The most-watched TV show in China annually is the CCTV Spring Festival gala and in the past few years, it’s turned into a demostration of the cutting edge of humanoid

Sometimes in life, we always go by the principle of using Occam’s razor to work things out. It’s not so much the best thing to abide by when trading, but one of the best principles I find in trading is to always keep things simple. That is also in part what Greg tends to preach

BofA argues that the dollar remains in a precarious spot and while there is plenty of focus on China diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets, it is Europe that should be watched more closely instead. As a reminder, the US Treasury will be releasing its TIC report for December 2025 later this week on 18 February.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the Eurozone industrial production data. This is rarely a market-moving report and in any case, it’s not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we just have

Monday begins quietly, with U.S. markets closed for Presidents’ Day. In China, markets will also be affected by the Spring Festival holiday. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y, and the unemployment rate. In Canada, the focus will be on inflation data. Wednesday brings the RBNZ monetary

Credit Agricole is out with a note at the end of last week saying that the dollar will remain in the crosshairs for trading this week. That as traders will have plenty to look forward to this week as well, following the key economic data trifecta last week. The firm argues that all things considered,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny

Singapore exports grow solidly but miss forecasts as electronics outpace other sectors. Summary: January NODX rose 9.3% y/y, below expectations of 12.1%. Electronics led gains, driven by integrated circuits and disk media. Non-electronics exports declined, highlighting uneven sector performance. Exports to China, Hong Kong and EU rose, while US and Indonesia shipments fell. Forecasts recently

This follows from the 1.2% growth in 2024 and the 1.3% growth posted in 2023. In terms of GDP per capita, the Swiss economy grew by 0.5% in 2025. And just for a bit more of a benchmark, the GDP per capita has expanded by 4.8% since 2019. Looking at the details, the industrial sector

Summary: Takaichi and Ueda meet for first time since election win, amid rate-hike speculation. Previous November meeting preceded December hike to 0.75%. Yen has rebounded nearly 3%, after earlier weakness near 160 per dollar. Markets price ~80% chance of April hike, as inflation stays above target. Two BOJ board seats opening, giving Takaichi potential influence

Optimism builds for Chinese equities as policy support and tech innovation offset lingering risks. Summary: Chinese equities rallied strongly in 2025, supported by exports, AI advances and policy easing. Technology and housing stabilisation policies are key areas of investor optimism. Corporate governance and capital returns improving, with rising dividends and buybacks. Earnings growth expected to

Beijing deploys state-linked investors to moderate AI-driven stock speculation. ps. Chinese markets are closed this week: Lunar New Year 2026: Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed February 16–23 Summary: China’s “national team” selling equities, aiming to cool AI-driven speculation. Shift from traditional buyer role, previously used to stabilise markets during downturns. ~US$110bn ETF

Westpac says US resilience limits scope for further Fed easing. Summary: US growth remains resilient, with activity tracking above trend despite uncertainty. Labour market stable, unemployment steady around 4.3% and wage growth firm. Household balance sheets strong, wealth at record highs supporting consumption. Inflation risks persist, particularly in core services, complicating Fed easing. Westpac delays

Japan junior coalition partner leader urges tax relief while defending BOJ independence. Summary: Junior coalition leader backs swift food tax suspension, targeting fiscal 2026 rollout. Foreign reserves flagged as funding option, potentially reducing need for new debt issuance. BOJ independence emphasised, with rate decisions left to the central bank. Further rate hikes possible, given weak

Investor turns bullish on Japan bonds and yen after election clarity. Summary: Bloomberg reports Nash turns bullish on JGBs, buying 10-year bonds after election clarity. Political stability seen as catalyst, with yields falling sharply since Takaichi’s win. Yen bought versus dollar and sterling, marking strategic FX repositioning. Forecast 8–9% yen appreciation, particularly against the Swiss

Not too much change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1875 USD/JPY 152.66 GBP/USD 1.3641 AUD/USD 0.7072 USD/CAD 1.3609 USD/CHF 0.7685 NZD/USD 0.6033 I’ll be back with weekend news soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand retail card spending -1.1% m/m in January, reversing December’s +0.1%. Total card spending also declined, -0.7% on the month after a 1.0% fall previously. In annual terms, electronic retail card spending edged up 0.4% y/y. Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. Considering that US markets are closed today, there is a notable lack of interest on the expiries board to start the week. That being said, there is one that could still factor into play. And that is for

Beijing pivots toward consumption-led growth as export reliance faces mounting global headwinds. While Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke on Sunday, take note that Chinese markets are closed all this week: Lunar New Year 2026: Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed February 16–23 Summary: Xi pivots toward domestic demand, calling consumption and investment the

IMF says Australia is landing softly, but inflation and global risks demand policy vigilance. Summary: IMF sees Australia achieving a soft landing, with growth rebounding to around 2% after a weak 2024. Inflation eased then re-accelerated, with underlying price pressures back above 3% in late 2025. Growth expected to hold near 2% in 2026, supported

Washington escalates sanctions enforcement with another long-range tanker interception. Posting this with Globex oil trade about to open for the new week. Summary: US boards second tanker, intercepting the Panama-flagged Veronica III in the Indian Ocean. Operation followed long-distance tracking from the Caribbean amid sanctions enforcement. Vessel carried 1.9 million barrels and is sanctioned by

Japan ekes out Q4 growth, but momentum remains weak despite easing tariff drag. Summary Q4 GDP barely positive, rising 0.1% q/q and 0.2% annualised, well below expectations. Private consumption slowed, up 0.1% q/q amid persistent food price pressures. Capex underwhelmed, increasing just 0.2% versus forecasts of 0.8%. Exports fell 0.3%, with external demand contributing zero

The key market influence today is the closure of Chinese mainland markets and half days on ly in Hong Kong and Singapore (more detail below the screenshot). The calendar lists China house price data due today. These were published last week: China house prices continue their death spiral: January -3.1% y/y and -0.4% m/m Japanese

Sun: Japanese Prelim. GDP (Q4) Mon: US Holiday (Washington’s Birthday/Presidents Day); Eurogroup Meeting; Swedish Unemployment (Jan), EZ Industrial Production (Dec) Tue: RBA Minutes (Feb); UK Unemployment/Wages (Dec), German ZEW (Feb), US ADP Weekly, Canadian CPI (Jan), NY Fed (Feb), Chinese Lunar New Year (Hong Kong markets closed from 17th-19th Feb) Wed: RBNZ Announcement, FOMC Minutes

Bitcoin Futures are hovering near $68,800 in mid-February 2026, attempting to stabilize after a sharp retracement from last year’s surge above $110,000. At the same time, Ethereum Futures are trading close to $2,050, nearly 50% below their prior highs above $4,000. While crypto appears to be “holding,” the broader backdrop tells a more complex story.

US January CPI +2.4% y/y vs +2.5% expected Fed’s Goolsbee sees encouraging and concerning parts of the CPI report US Supreme Court says next Friday will be a decision day US Treasury secretary Bessent says that metals tariffs decision will be up to Trump Oil prices dip on report that OPEC+ may resume oil output

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee spoke with Yahoo Finance today and had some notable comments: Encouraging and concerning parts in latest CPI We are still seeing pretty high services inflation Hopes we’ve seen the peak impact of tariffs The job market has been steady, only modest cooling Rates can still go down but need to

The US House voted against tariffs this week and the Senate is expected to follow suit. They will surely be vetoed by President Trump but that move gives some cover to the Supreme Court ahead of its big decision on tariffs. The court today announced that Feb 20, 24 and 25 will all be ‘decision

Sector Overview: A Mixed Day Across the Market The stock market today showcases a complex landscape, with varied performances across sectors. Leading the charge, the healthcare sector is basking in green, while technology shows a mix of highs and lows. 📈 Healthcare: Eli Lilly (LLY) surged by 1.40%, riding on positive sentiments, while Merck (MRK)

US stocks have turned around nicely today led by the Russell 2000, which is up 1.8%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up 0.6% and eyes are on software stocks. The IGV software ETF is up 2.3% after an utterly bruising performance so far this year. I’m careful not to lean too hard on

New yuan loans ¥4.71 trillion vs ¥5.00 trillion expected China’s new bank loans surged in January, as is typical of the new year. Looking back to 2025, this figure was ¥5.13 trillion in January last year. That said, the figure this time around misses on estimates but is still a big one in preparation of

It’s a mixed up week with non-farm payrolls already passed but CPI scheduled for today. It’s a big one as it could re-frame the debate about how many rate cuts are possible. Notably, despite the strong non-farm payrolls on Wednesday, the market isn’t convinced the Fed will hold. Year-end pricing for rate cuts is up

Prior +2.9% HICP +2.4% vs +2.5% y/y prelim Prior +3.0% The numbers here are slightly softer than what the initial estimates indicated. And they reflect a material decline in headline annual inflation to start the new year. That being said, core prices still represent the most important detail in this report and it is the

Prior was +2.7% m/m CPI +0.2% vs +0.3% expected Prior m/m reading was +0.3% Real weekly earnings +0.5% vs -0.3% prior (revised to -0.5%) Core inflation : Ex food and energy +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior ex food and energy +2.5% Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% exp Prior core m/m +0.2% Core goods +1.1%

PBOC’s emphasis on overnight repo rate sparks talk of policy framework shift. Summary: PBOC elevates focus on overnight repo rate Monthly report reordered to highlight overnight benchmark Potential shift away from 7-day reverse repo focus Overnight rate already trading close to policy rate Signals possible evolution in policy framework The People’s Bank of China has

US CPI preview: What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI? US January CPI report to offer a cleaner read on inflation developments? Headlines: US futures drop lower as equities look to end the week with a whimper Gold at risk of another selloff as traders turn their focus to the US CPI

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

It might be the result of a brutally cold winter so far but Canadian consumer spending dipped in January, according to the latest spending tracker from RBC. Using cardholder data, Canada’s largest bank indicated that spending fell across discretionary goods, services and essentials in the month. The bank downplayed the decline, noting that it came

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 58 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 48 bps (64% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 8 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 7 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by

Prior +0.1% Core CPI +0.5% y/y Prior +0.5% Slight delay in the release by the source. The monthly estimate points to another negative reading (-0.1%), missing slightly on estimates this time around. That will be a slight concern looking out to the year ahead. This marks a fifth consecutive negative monthly estimate after recording flat

USS Ford strike group will join USS Lincoln carrier strike group in Persian Gulf PBOC’s focus on overnight rate fuels speculation of policy shift BOJ’s Tamura says inflation sticky, sees scope to judge target met by spring China housing market struggles despite “three red lines” removal. 62/70 cities price falls NZ inflation expectations mixed ahead

The story from earlier: Japan seizes Chinese fishing vessel in EEZ, arrests captain amid rising tensions The legality of the situation might not matter all too much. That especially since China and Japan are already in quite the state of conflict since Japan prime minister Takaichi took over. Her remarks on Japan potentially needing to

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar spiked higher following the strong US NFP report on Wednesday as the market pared back slightly Fed rate cut bets, but surprisingly gave back all the gains soon after. Maybe the market is still too convinced of more labour market weakness to come, or it decided to wait for

The process of disinflation is intact and not complete We need to maintain monetary policy restrictiveness Core inflation is falling again after having stalled I hope inflation expectations will fall with slowing inflation Underlying inflation should be the focus of policy Disinflation is not as rapid or convincing as hoped Underlying inflation looks more like

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Yesterday, out of the blue, we got a quick selloff in gold without any clear catalyst. The curious thing is that we saw the same price action across many other assets around the same time. It’s unclear what triggered those moves. Anyway, the focus now is on the US CPI report today. The

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we have the Swiss CPI and the Eurozone Q4 GDP. The Swiss CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.1% vs 0.1% prior. The data is unlikely to change anything for the SNB though as policymakers have repeatedly said that the bar for negative rates remains very high and that even

Software stocks have been under heavy pressure as of late amid concerns of AI disruptions to the space. But yesterday, we’re starting to see that spill over to some other parts of the market you’d least expect. It was quite a blowout in Wall Street: Every industry is one AI headline away from a brutal

If anything it done, it would be clarification on incidental objects Spoke to the USTR this morning, we’ll see if there’s a narrowing He also weighs in on the Fed chair drama involving Senator Tillis, who might want to block the nomination of Kevin Warsh i.e. Trump’s pick to replace Powell. We’ll see where the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Same as we saw for gold, yesterday we got a quick selloff in silver without any clear catalyst, although half of the losses were eventually pared back. The curious thing is that we saw the same price action across many other assets around the same time. It’s unclear what triggered those moves. Today,

This was already evident when we saw the German and French trade data last week. For some context: US tariffs impact show up in German and French trade numbers, but is there a bigger worry? Of note, German exports to the US last year plunged while French exports were steady at the balance after some

Now is not the time for the ECB to move interest rates We are in a good position to move interest rates in any way if needed We have yet to see the full impact of recent euro appreciation Policymakers are on monitoring mode with regards to the euro strength There are concerns that a

Prior +0.3% There’s no change to the initial estimate with the yearly figure confirmed at 1.3% as well. As mentioned before, this mainly reaffirms a more resilient showing by the euro area economy in ending last year. As for annual growth for 2025 as a whole, GDP is seen increasing by 1.5% for the year.

The sources are saying that OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes starting from April. However, the bloc has not yet made a firm decision on the matter and that talks will continue ahead of their 1 March meeting. The headline is enough to bring about a dip in oil prices, with WTI crude

Tamura flags sticky inflation and positive output gap, signalling scope for further BOJ rate hikes. Summary: BOJ’s Tamura says inflation becoming “sticky” Price target may be judged achieved as early as spring Output gap already positive Yen weakness a renewed inflation risk Policy still accommodative at 0.75% Neutral rate likely at least around 1% Signals

Spotify Stock Analysis After Earnings: Why SPOT’s Post-Earnings Rally Faded and What Technical Structure Suggests Next Spotify (SPOT) delivered a strong earnings reaction, initially triggering a powerful upside move. However, much of that rally has since faded, leaving traders asking an important question: Was this a healthy pullback within a bullish shift, or early evidence

IC Markets Global has been recognised by TradingView as the “Social Champion” at the 2025 TradingView Broker Awards, highlighting the broker’s strong engagement and connection with the global trading community. The Social Champion award recognises brokers that stand out on TradingView through active participation, meaningful interaction, and consistent engagement with traders across the platform’s social

The report says that the US president is planning to roll back some tariffs on steel and aluminium goods, largely as a move to bolster his public image ahead of the November midterm elections. As a reminder, Trump slapped steel and aluminium imports with tariffs of up to 50% last year and even expanded that

The meeting was said to take place in Beijing on Thursday, with representatives from 60 German companies being in attendance. Of note, the list of German firms included the likes of BASF, BMW Group, and Bayer. The commerce ministry then reaffirmed that both China and Germany remain “committed to a fair and stable business environment”.

China’s housing slump deepens as January prices post steepest annual drop in seven months. Earlier on this here: China house prices continue their death spiral: January -3.1% y/y and -0.4% m/m adding a little more now: Summary: China new home prices fall 0.4% m/m, -3.1% y/y in January Annual decline steepest in seven months 62

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being a rather large one for EUR/USD at the 1.1850 level. The expiries hold close to the 200-hour moving average of 1.1846 currently and that together, that could keep a floor on price action in the session ahead.

We’re starting to see the pressure build up again as we look to European morning trade today. That after the heavy selling in Wall Street amid continued concerns on the AI trade and potential disruptions surrounding the technology itself. It’s creating quite a vortex of volatility, and it is one that might take some time

Microsoft is widely (and rightly) seen as a defining company of the past 50 years. It’s changed the world completely, is ubiquitous, highly profitable and among the most-valuable in the world. People also forget that for a decade, it was a joke in the stock market. The Steve Balmer era was a disaster and coincided

RBNZ set to hold at 2.25% as inflation expectations send mixed signals and hike bets build for 2026. Summary: RBNZ widely expected to hold OCR at 2.25% on February 18 Inflation at 3.1%, above 1–3% target band Rate cuts since 2024 total 325bp Hike expectations for end-2026 rising Futures price ~60% chance of hike by

USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group redirected from Caribbean to Middle East, extending deployment into spring. Summary: USS USS Gerald R. Ford and escort ships will be rerouted from the Caribbean to the Middle East, delaying their return home until late April or early May. This redeployment will see the Ford strike group join

Trump says they could have a deal with Iran over the next month But he will talk with Iran as long as he likes We have to make a deal with Iran This should be a negative for oil, which is already down $2 to $62.64 today. This article was written by Adam Button at

Two industries are getting smoked today that had previously been on the sidelines of the AI trade: Freight brokers/trucking Office real estate Here is a look at CH Robinson, which is one of the largest third-party logistics companies in the world. They arrange transportation between shippers and carriers and take a margin in return. It’s

Japan signals vigilance on FX as Mimura issues low-key verbal warning Summary: Japan’s top currency official says authorities are watching FX “with high urgency.” Refuses to comment on specific exchange-rate levels. Says Tokyo is in close contact with US authorities. Emphasises Japan is “not lowering its guard.” Tone measured but US reference notable. Japan’s top

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar spiked higher yesterday following a strong US NFP report as the market pared back slightly Fed rate cut bets but surprisingly gave back all the gains. Maybe the market is still too convinced of more labour market weakness to come, or it decided to wait for the US CPI.

There is no letup in the software rout. The question is whether we’ve crossed some kind of rubicon where we are pricing in mass disruption due to AI. The flashpoint seemed to be the release of Claude Plugins but it’s been a long time coming. The simple thesis is that AI makes it much easier

Gold was slammed lower in an instant for unclear reasons. The move has come with some broad US dollar bids across the board. Cable underscores the move as it’s fallen back to flat on the day. The drop in gold and rise in the dollar could have been triggered by broader risk aversion. US stocks

The report says ahead of Trump’s visit to China in April, the US administration is putting on ice a number of key tech security measures that are targeted at Beijing. The sources say that Washington does not want to kick up a fuss, after having already seen a trade detente between Trump and Xi back

Prior was 4.35m Home sales change -8.4% vs +5.1% prior Days on the market 46 vs 41 prior Inventory at 3.7 months Median prices $396,800, up 0.9% y/y This is the worst reading since September 2024 and is a sharp reversal from what looked like a nice recovery. I tend to think this is a

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Trump yesterday, largely about Iran. Since the meeting, oil prices have come under pressure as Trump, and now Netanyahu, have emphasized negotiations. Netanyahu said he was skeptical there would be success but said that Iran likely realized they made a mistake and didn’t reach a deal last time.

Prior +0.1% GDP +1.0% vs +1.2% y/y expected Prior +1.3%; revised to +1.2% The headline figure might point to marginal growth on the quarter, but UK real GDP per capita is now down for two consecutive quarters. So, that is something to take note of. That being said, real GDP per capita is still estimated

Summary: RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter says labour market has stabilised but remains tight. Bank closely assessing capacity pressures and inflation persistence. Inflation expected to remain above 2–3% target for some time. Recent slowdown driven by fewer vacancies and hiring, not higher unemployment. Remarks reinforce Governor Bullock’s warning that further hikes remain possible Reserve Bank

🗂 Sector Overview: Emerging Leaders and Lagging Sectors The semiconductor sector is witnessing a remarkable upswing today, with major players like NVIDIA (NVDA) climbing 1.46% and Micron Technology (MU) surging by 4.32%. These gains underscore a renewed investor confidence amid news of advancements in chip technologies. On the other hand, the consumer cyclicals are facing

Prior was 231K (revised to 232K) Four-week moving average 219.5K vs 212.5K prior Continuing claims 1862K vs 1850K expected Prior continuing claims 1844K (revised to 1841K) Last week, the market was rattled by the job in initial jobless claims. Prior to that, for the week ending January 17, 2026, initial claims rose slightly by 1,000

Rupee firms after suspected RBI FX intervention Hedge funds boost yen bets as buy Japan trade strengthens — Bloomberg Tokyo keeps intervention risk alive as yen swings. Mimura recap. Precious metals retreat after US payroll surprise Lunar New Year 2026: Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed February 16–23 PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference

The dollar is a little lower at the balance in European morning trade, struggling to build on the gains from after the stronger non-farm payrolls data yesterday. The US jobs report was a solid one, reaffirming another strong January print with beats in both payrolls and the unemployment rate. The latter even coming despite a

Lunar New Year (LNY) 2026 brings thin liquidity and China-offshore price discovery, with travel/consumption the key narrative. Summary: Lunar New Year 2026 (Year of the Horse) falls on Tuesday 17 Feb. Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed Feb 16–23, reopening Tue Feb 24. Hong Kong has half-day trading on Mon Feb 16, is

Summary: Traders say RBI likely sold US dollars before local market open. Rupee strengthened. Intervention reportedly conducted via large state-run bank. Move surprised market participants. Action occurred just before 9:00 a.m. IST spot open India’s central bank is believed to have stepped into currency markets ahead of Thursday’s local trading session, helping the rupee open

For some context, this relates to the earlier headline: China now tries to play nice with the EU with latest trade rulings As mentioned then, China has moved forward to finalise 11.7% tariffs on EU dairy products starting from 13 February. It sounds bad initially but context matters here. The provisional rates for these tariffs

There were some encouraging signs for precious metals in the run up to the US jobs report yesterday. However, buyers didn’t quite get the right kind of trigger to solidify their conviction and we’re seeing things reset in the aftermath. Gold had nudged above $5,100 briefly while silver also pushed above its 200-hour moving average

This week is all about key US economic data releases. And after the non-farm payrolls data yesterday, we’re not quite done yet as the consumer price inflation (CPI) report is what will bookend the week tomorrow. It’s a rare week in markets where we get a trifecta of big data from the US, but it

Stable jobs, sticky inflation — the Fed stays cautious and data-dependent. Summary: President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Beth Hammack says unemployment appears to be stabilising. Labour market described as broadly in balance. Inflation remains above target and “still too high.” Consumer spending holding up, led by higher-income households. Fed’s focus

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. There are some largish ones for EUR/USD at the 1.1750-60 levels but they aren’t likely to feature into play. The dollar is firmer after the stronger US jobs report yesterday but not really enough to set off

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar spiked higher yesterday following a strong US NFP report as the market pared back slightly Fed rate cut bets but surprisingly gave back all the gains. Maybe the market is still too convinced of more labour market weakness to come, or it decided to wait for the US CPI.

Headlines: Dollar struggles to build on post-NFP gains, focus turns to CPI next The US Dollar fails to rally on the hot NFP: signal of weakness or caution ahead of CPI? Precious metals hold more rangebound again after the US jobs report How has the Fed outlook changed after the hot US jobs report yesterday?

SCMP reports Trump and Xi may meet in Beijing in early April and extend their trade truce by up to a year, including further tariff rollback and new Chinese purchase pledges. China has resumed US soybean buys ahead of the summit. Summary: Trump and Xi are expected to meet in Beijing in early April, per

The market isn’t pricing in any more cuts from the Bank of Canada, so they’re data watching and there isn’t much in the commentary that could be market moving. Agreed ahead of Jan 28 decision that the rate was on the stimulative side Uncertainty over the pace and scale of structural adjustment made growth, potential

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq has been consolidating since Monday as traders awaited the US NFP and CPI reports this week. We got the NFP yesterday and it was a hot one as it beat expectations by a big margin with the unemployment rate falling further to 4.3% despite an increase in participation rate. The market

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 has been stuck in a consolidation below the 7K level since Monday as traders awaited the US NFP and CPI reports this week. We got the NFP report yesterday and it was a hot one as it beat expectations by a big margin with the unemployment rate falling further to

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight was the UK Q4 GDP report. The data was slightly weaker than expected but didn’t change materially the current BoE outlook, so the market reaction was limited. We don’t have much on the agenda for the rest of the session, so the price action will likely

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9106 more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar spiked higher yesterday following a strong US NFP report as the market pared back slightly Fed rate cut bets but surprisingly gave back all the gains. Maybe the market is still too convinced of more labour market weakness to come, or it decided to wait for the US CPI.

The two sides are having to rely on one another in trying to make the best out of a tough situation brought about by US tariffs. France did stir the pot a little with some controversial headlines below but as a reminder, that isn’t the official stance by the French government but mere advice for

I’ll have more to come on this separately, details, BoJ implications etc. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

SoftBank earnings today showed that the firm swung back into profit in its fiscal third quarter, largely driven by founder Masayoshi Son’s large and growing investment in OpenAI. For some context, SoftBank made a staggering $41 billion investment in OpenAI last year. And that now sees the firm hold approximately 11% stake in OpenAI. It’s

Oil falls after Trump says his preference is for a deal with Iran Bank of Canada minutes: Agreed they would need to maintain optionality in setting rates US sells 10-year notes at 4.177% vs 4.163% WI EIA weekly crude oil inventories +8530K vs +793K expected Mexican President Sheinbaum: I do not believe the US will

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Summary: Michele Bullock is appearing before the Senate Economics Committee amid fresh scrutiny of monetary policy after the RBA raised rates. The RBA recently lifted the cash rate by 25 bps to 3.85%, the first hike in more than two years, citing persistent inflation pressures. Inflation remains above target, and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has

Washington signals credible military escalation risk as Iran nuclear talks hang in the balance. There has been plenty of chatter about on this, firming up now. Wall Street Journal reporting. Summary Pentagon orders a second carrier strike group to prepare for possible Middle East deployment. Donald Trump weighing move as pressure builds on Iran nuclear

Silver’s explosive rally lifts 2026 targets, but substitution risks loom. Summary: J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts silver to average $81/oz in 2026. Silver surged nearly 130% in 2025, from $29 to above $70/oz. Industrial demand and tariff uncertainty were major drivers. Warsh Fed nomination triggered sharp precious metals pullback. Substitution risk in solar could cap

There were a lot of positive takeaways from the US jobs report yesterday here. That at least if you’re a dollar bull, with the numbers offering plenty in terms of reaffirming steadier labour market conditions to start the new year. That being said, I would be remiss not to point out that one data point

Summary: Gold and silver dip. Strong January US jobs data dents near-term rate cut hopes. Spot gold near $5,060; silver slips after sharp prior rally. Markets eye jobless claims and US inflation data next. Iran diplomacy headlines linger in background. Gold prices are rangebound in early Asia trade, as a firmer U.S. dollar capped momentum

A light data agenda for the session today. Japan’s January wholesale inflation data will be of some interest. Higher than expected should be yen supportive and vice versa. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fed near neutral, staying patient — but watching inflation and debt risks. Summary: Beth Hammack says fed funds rate is “right around neutral.” Labour market broadly balanced; unemployment stabilising. Fed well positioned to stay on hold — no need to fine-tune policy. Local contacts report growth picking up. Warns US government debt is on an

Bullock: higher AUD and rates doing the work — but more hikes still possible Summary: Governor Bullock says a higher Australian dollar and higher interest rates will help cool demand back into balance. Australia may struggle to grow above ~2% sustainably without a lift in productivity. Further rate rises are not pre-committed: getting inflation down

Japan’s PPI is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index. Its an indicator to ‘wholesale’ inflation. Data post earlier is here ICYMI: Japan January 2026 wholesale inflation. PPI 2.3% y/y (vs. expected 2.3%) Japan wholesale inflation slows, but yen import prices edge higher Japan’s January CGPI rises 2.3% y/y, slowing from 2.4%. In line

House votes 219–211 to terminate Trump’s Canada tariffs Summary: House passes resolution 219–211 to terminate Trump’s tariffs on Canada. Measure led by Gregory Meeks. Six Republicans joined Democrats; one Democrat voted no. Resolution targets the national emergency underpinning the tariffs. Must pass the Senate and survive a likely presidential veto. The U.S. House of Representatives

UK housing downturn eases as January RICS balance improves Summary: UK January RICS house price balance rises to -10 from revised -13. Beat Reuters poll expectation of -11. New buyer enquiries improve to highest since July. 12-month sales expectations jump to strongest since Dec 2024. Early signs of stabilisation, though activity remains subdued. Britain’s housing

Trump posted this on Truth Social: I have just finished meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu, of Israel, and various of his Representatives. It was a very good meeting, the tremendous relationship between our two Countries continues. There was nothing definitive reached other than I insisted that negotiations with Iran continue to see whether or not

ING sees the yen strengthening as Japan pairs looser fiscal policy with tighter BOJ settings while the Fed moves toward further easing. I’m a little wary of this, the current signalling out of the Fed seems to be on hold: ICYMI – Fed officials signal patience as rates seen near neutral and inflation lingers Summary:

Prior was 4.173% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It is a tough time to be a public software company. Stocks are getting punished again today: PLTR -4.2% APP -6.2% INTU -5.6% ADBE -2.2% ADSK -5.5% WDAY -6.5% ZM -5.8% U -28% (!) The flashpoint was Claude releasing a series of plugins. It has the market re-evaluating the moats and pricing power around software

What’s expected: Consensus estimate +70K (range -10K to +135K) December +37K Private consensus estimate +70K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.4% vs 4.4% prior Participation rate consensus 62.4% prior Prior underemployment U6 prior 8.4% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.6% y/y vs +3.8% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior Avg weekly hours

It’s not Friday yet but if it feels that way, it’s because we’re minutes away from the non-farm payrolls report. It’s a big one as the Federal Reserve circles the jobs market as a key metric in whether it will cut rates further or hold them here. The data over the past week hasn’t been

This comes in response to the French government strategy report earlier this week which floated the idea of either 30% blanket tariffs on Chinese goods or 30% outright depreciation of the euro against the yuan (à la Plaza Accord style). I posted the details of the story earlier here: France lands in hot water with

Yuan eases (just a little bit) on soft inflation despite firm PBOC guidance House vote failure opens door to Trump tariff repeal efforts ING sees yen recovery as BOJ tightening contrasts with Fed cuts China inflation misses forecasts as producer deflation persists RBA’s Hauser says inflation too high, vows action to return to target. AUD

Further rate cuts could allow higher inflation to persist for longer. Not seeing evidence current level of interest rates is restraining economy. Appropriate to keep restrictive monetary policy with inflation close to 3%. Productivity improvements could allow faster growth without inflation, but ‘we are not there yet’. Current inflation rate indicates still-strong demand is outpacing

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For some context, the French government released a strategy report this week and is one that is meant to be part of an advice to the prime minister as well as to help guide long-term policy setting. Included in that report is a call for the EU to consider either a 30% blanket tariffs on

An interview yesterday on CNBC with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour laid bare the truth. He was grilled by Becky Quick about insider trading on the platform. Mansour highlighted how they investigate suspicious bets but he also seemed to struggle with the difference between the legal obligations that CEOs have in protecting market-moving information and the

This is a notable comment from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum who said she does not believe that Trump with withdraw the US from the USMCA trade agreement. Earlier today, a report from Bloomberg said Trump is privately musing about exiting the North American trade pact, citing problems with Canada in particular. The president has asked

Prior was +50K November was +56K Two-month net revision -17K Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.4% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.4% Unrounded unemployment 4.283% vs 4.375% prior Participation rate 62.5% vs 62.4% prior U6 underemployment rate 8.0% vs 8.4% prior Average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings 3.7% y/y vs +3.6% expected

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

US jobs report build up: Preview: January non-farm payrolls by the numbers. The consensus is high What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? What to watch out for in the US labour market report later? Goldman flags substantial downside risk to January jobs report Headlines: USD/JPY continues to unwind the run up

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the Italian Industrial Production data which is never a market-moving release and won’t change anything for the ECB anyway. The price action might remain rangebound into the US NFP report later in the day, but I also wouldn’t be surprised

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar came under some more pressure yesterday following soft US Retail Sales and US ECI data. We got a slightly dovish repricing on the back of the weaker data with the market now pricing 60 bps of easing by year-end compared to 58 bps before the data release. The focus

The December non-farm payrolls report was very strong and led to the unemployment rate falling to 4.3% from 4.4% in a surprise twist. Here is WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos after the release: The January jobs report cements the Fed’s extended pause on interest rates. Powell on Jan. 28: “The economy has, once again, surprised us

Sector Overview The US stock market today paints a diverse picture, driven by distinct performances across sectors. Leading the pack is the semiconductor sector, showcasing substantial gains, while the home improvement sector faces headwinds. This dichotomy underlines the varied investor sentiment and sector-specific dynamics at play. 🚀 Semiconductor Surge: A noteworthy rise is seen in

US December retail sales 0.0% vs +0.4% expected Fed’s Logan: If inflation falls and labor market stays stable, no further cuts needed Fed’s Hammack: Inflation is ‘still too high’ and tariff issues still in play US November business inventories +0.1% vs +0.2% expected US import prices for December 0.1% vs 0.1% expected US employment cost

House Republicans failed to block tariff repeal votes, reopening debate over Trump-era trade measures. Summary: House procedural vote fails 217–214 Johnson effort to block tariff votes collapses Three Republicans break ranks Democrats poised to advance tariff repeal bills Trade policy debate reopens A key procedural vote in the United States House of Representatives failed on

Westpac expects the RBNZ to hold rates steady while modestly bringing forward its first projected hike, without signalling a more aggressive tightening path. Summary: RBNZ expected to hold OCR at 2.25% at its February 18 meeting First hike forecast brought forward to Dec 2026 Inflation acknowledged as too high Forecasts still point to gradual disinflation

Prior was -3455K Gasoline+1160K vs -362K Distillates -2703K Refinery utilization -1.1% There were some waves late yesterday when the API survey showed this: Crude +13.4M Gasoline +3.3M Distillates -2.0M There have been some big swings in these numbers lately and I have to assume it’s because some Venezuelan crude is coming into the visible market

Last month, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker was as high as 5.41% and that caused the usual pundits in Washington to declare that growth was running that hot. In fact, it was goosed due to a one-off super-strong October trade balance report. That was followed by a sharp correction lower in November trade and a

Ford’s Q4 earnings missed sharply on tariffs and supply issues, but management sees 2026 as a rebound year driven by Ford Pro and Blue strength. Summary: Ford posts biggest earnings miss in four years Tariffs and supply disruptions hit Q4 results Revenue beats but margins disappoint Model e losses persist despite slight improvement 2026 framed

The dollar is weaker across the board today, extending losses from Monday with USD/JPY eyeing a third consecutive daily decline. It’s a bit of a mixed bag this week with precious metals taking a breather, while stocks and bond yields were dragged down by the softer US retail sales data yesterday here. In continuing with

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold is still stuck in a tight consolidation just above the 5000 level as traders await the US NFP and CPI reports. Nothing has changed since Monday. The fundamentals are still skewed against rising prices due to improving US data (not considering the December reports) and easing geopolitical tensions. Today, we will get

As per usual, the three main components will be the headline non-farm payrolls number, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. And typically, we will also get the two-month revision to the payrolls figure. However, this time around will feature the annual adjustments from the benchmark revision up to March 2025. On the latter component,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar came under some more pressure yesterday following soft US Retail Sales and US ECI data. We got a slightly dovish repricing on the back of the weaker data with the market now pricing 60 bps of easing by year-end compared to 58 bps before the data release. The focus

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver has been slowly recovering the losses in the past days helped by the lack of bearish catalysts, but a crucial US NFP report today could hurt the bulls. In fact, the market is pricing 60 bps of easing for the Fed this year, so there’s a high risk of a hawkish repricing

After the more volatile start to the year, the past three days have been extremely calm for precious metals. Gold has been keeping within a $100 range this week while silver is only kept in a $5 horizon. That’s quite something after all the recent volatility spikes and corrective selling since the end of January.

Inflation data from China for January 2025. Preview here. I’ll have more to come on this, analysis and implications, separately. PPI m/m is +0.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Housing finance accelerated into Q4, supporting the “still-warm” domestic demand narrative, but the RBA’s next hike is still more likely May than March. Summary: Q4 housing finance strengthened across owner-occupiers, investors and first-home buyers Value growth outpaced volumes, pointing to larger average loan sizes Investor value growth cooled sharply from Q3’s surge RBA hiked to

Summary: White House revises US-India trade factsheet Reference to pulse tariff cuts removed Digital services language softened Commitment wording adjusted Negotiations appear ongoing The White House has revised its official factsheet outlining U.S.–India trade discussions, quietly removing references to agricultural tariff cuts and softening language around digital trade commitments. In an updated version of the

The yuan eased slightly after weak inflation data, even as the PBOC set a firm midpoint and signalled continued managed currency stability. Summary: Yuan edges lower after soft inflation PBOC sets strongest midpoint since 2023 Loose policy stance reaffirmed Seasonal corporate demand supported currency Exchange-rate stability remains priority China’s yuan edged lower on Wednesday following

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9140 PBOC inject 78.5bn yuan via 7-day RRs @1.4% and 400bn yuan via 14-dayers @1.65% Earlier: ICYMI – PBOC pledges loose policy, ample liquidity This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s January inflation data missed expectations and showed persistent producer-price deflation, reinforcing pressure for further policy support. Summary: January CPI +0.2% y/y, below expectations Core inflation eased to 0.8% PPI -1.4% y/y, deflation persists Industrial profitability still pressured PBOC maintains loose policy bias China’s inflation data for January underscored persistent deflationary pressures in the world’s

Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today. Of course, yen trade continues in other centres. but its thnnier than normal. There is no fresh news. NFP ahead: Preview: January non-farm payrolls by the numbers. The consensus is high Goldman flags substantial downside risk to January jobs report This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Goldman Sachs expects January U.S. payrolls to undershoot forecasts, citing model effects and subdued hiring signals despite limited layoff pressure. Earlier: Preview: January non-farm payrolls by the numbers. The consensus is high Summary: Goldman sees January payrolls at +45k Forecast below market consensus Birth-death model a key downside risk Layoff indicators relatively supportive Labour market

The bitcoin price action is uninspiring and the chart is even worse. The last two weeks has been a disaster in the crypto market and it might not be over yet. Friday’s big bounce from $60,000 was impressive and it came with talk about some kind of idiosyncratic liquidation, with eyes focused on Asia. Yet

There aren’t any major expiries that will factor into play before the US labour market report, with the full list seen below. But if we do get a softer set of jobs data later, that could drag the dollar down further and see the larger one for EUR/USD at 1.2000 potentially factor in. It will

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Limassol, Cyprus – January 2026, The final quarter of 2025 brought a clear shift in market conditions. After a relatively calm Q3, volatility returned in force, and easyMarkets clients responded by increasing activity, particularly in precious metals. According to the broker’s Q4 2025 Market Recap, gold was the most traded instrument of the quarter, with

Fireside chat with Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor, at the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) Business Leaders’ Series, Sydney. – RBA Deputy Governor Hauser warned inflation remains too high and signalled the Bank will tighten further if required to return it to target. Earlier: Australia housing finance jumps in Q4 as markets weigh May

A case of buy the rumour, sell the fact? That seems to be the most plausible explanation, with traders also arguably feeling heavily guarded amid intervention risks. Japan prime minister Takaichi solidified her position with the snap election now giving her a powerful mandate to push forward with her fiscal plans. The Takaichi trade remains

There are reports of a massive US military build up in the Middle East and now this: The WSJ reports that the White House is considering rolling out the Venezuela playbook on Iran. US officials have discussed whether to seize additional tankers involved in transporting Iranian oil to pressure Tehran but have held off so

China’s central bank reiterated a loose policy stance, pledging ample liquidity and stronger support for domestic demand while guarding against financial and currency risks. Summary: PBOC pledges appropriately loose policy Liquidity to remain ample RRR and rate cuts remain options Focus on domestic demand support Yuan flexibility reaffirmed China’s central bank struck a firmly supportive

China’s headline inflation readings for January 2026, the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), will be published today by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. These monthly indicators will be closely watched for fresh signals on underlying price trends, demand strength ahead of the Lunar New Year and industrial inflation pressures.

Senior Fed policymakers signalled rates may already be near neutral, favouring patience as inflation remains elevated and labour markets stay resilient. Summary: Fed officials signal patience on rates Policy seen near neutral levels Inflation still the primary concern Labour market holding up so far No rush for further cuts Two senior Federal Reserve policymakers on

JPMorgan sketched out an $8,000 decade-end gold scenario in a late January note as big banks lift targets and WGC data show record 2025 demand. Summary: JPMorgan mapped out a decade-end US$8,000 scenario Upside hinges on private allocation rise Goldman lifted its end-2026 target to US$5,400 WGC flags record 2025 demand 5,002t Macro hedging bid

Via oilprice.com — Oil prices remain firm, though rangebound, so far this week on heightened geopolitical risk and supply-demand signals. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for nearly 20% of global oil flows, are keeping risk premiums elevated, with advisories for vessels in the region pushing crude

In coming months if inflation falls, labor market stays stable, no further rate cuts will be needed. More worried about inflation remaining stubbornly high. If see further material cooling in labor market, cutting rates could be appropriate. Current policy stance may be very close to neutral, providing little restraint. Cautiously optimistic current policy stance will

There’s a risk inflation could stick at 3% this year, needs to come down Job market stabilized into low hire, low fire landscape Both sides of Fed’s mandate have been under pressure Expects inflation to ease as year moves forward, but that’s just a forecast Is ‘cautiously optimistic’ about economic outlook Inflation is ‘still too

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1910 level. The expiries are not ones to tie to any technical significance, so the impact might be a bit more limited. The dollar was weaker yesterday and we’re now

Prior was +0.3% (revised to +0.2%) Retail inventories ex-autos +0.2% vs +0.2% expected Total inventories at $2,678.3 billion Inventory to sales ratio at 1.37 vs 1.40 prior Previously, wholesale inventories rose 0.2% in October. The thinking around tariffs and the shifts in the trade balance is that it should ultimately be a drag on inventories,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Crude oil continues to consolidate between key technical levels as traders await new developments from the US-Iran negotiations. Yesterday, Iran’s atomic energy chief said that Iran would be open to dilute its highly enriched uranium if the United States lifted all sanctions. The rangebound price action is clearly showing indecision in the market

Euro appreciation deserves attention but I do not see it as dramatic at all We do not target the exchange rate but we monitor it closely There was a brief uptick in EUR/USD exchange rate recently But we are now back to the range around 1.16 to 1.18, which is fully consistent with the assumptions

NASDAQ 100 futures (NQ) are currently rotating near the 25,330–25,350 area, a zone that has acted as the market’s balance point so far today. While price has moved both higher and lower intraday, neither buyers nor sellers have been able to force lasting acceptance outside this range. This makes 25,365 on the upside and 25,310

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a diverse landscape with notable performances in the technology, automotive, and entertainment sectors. Leading the way, the software & infrastructure segment within the technology sector is outperforming, with Microsoft (MSFT) climbing 1.06% and Oracle (ORCL) surging by 2.19%. Semiconductor companies also show resilience with Nvidia (NVDA) up 0.85%,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar weakened across the board yesterday despite the lack of catalysts. Most analysts blamed the report saying that China urged its banks to cut their exposure to US Treasuries. In such a case you would expect a negative reaction in bonds, but they finished the day higher. We did see

None of this lot is likely to move around markets too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior quarter was 0.8% Employment benefits 0.7% vs 0.8% prior quarter Employment wages 0.7% vs 0.8% prior quarter The easing in wage growth supports the rate cutting cycle. Powell has mentioned many times that he doesn’t see inflationary pressure coming from wage growth given the easing in labour market conditions. The ECI is now back

XM has launched its biggest ever promotion which is giving clients the opportunity to earn a new deposit bonus each week of up to $8,750.Over the six-week promotion period, every client can earn up to $52,500 in total by reaching trading targets. The promotion runs from 10 February through 23 March 2026 and involves trading

The dollar eased broadly, but Goldman Sachs says Japan’s post-election fiscal outlook keeps USD/JPY upside risks alive, with volatility and intervention risk set to rise. Summary: The US dollar softened overall, but analysts see Japan’s election outcome reinforcing upside risks for USD/JPY via higher fiscal spending expectations. Goldman Sachs expects implied volatility in USD/JPY to

For a company to successfully go public, it may seem essential to have solid finances, but in reality, what matters most is that market conditions are not just favorable, but bullish. While this did not appear to be an issue at the start of the year, confidence has started to fade as concerns have grown

After the modest gains yesterday, we’re seeing precious metals cool off a little in trading so far today. After a setback late last week, there was a notable bounce from the lows especially in silver. The precious metal itself is up 27% from its Friday low near $64 but the bounce we’re seeing since remains

Oil prices are stuck in a consolidation as US-Iran negotiations keep the market on edge US January NFIB small business optimism index 99.3 vs 99.8 expected The Nasdaq is stuck in a range as traders await key US data releases this week NASDAQ Futures Technical Analysis Today: Key Price Levels That Will Decide Direction ECB

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq continues to erase the losses experienced last week as we approach the key US data releases. It’s going to be a big week as we get the US NFP report tomorrow and the US CPI on Friday. The main risk is that hot data triggers a hawkish repricing which could weigh

The US and India struck a sweeping trade deal covering $500bn of purchases, tariff cuts and digital trade, reshaping bilateral commercial ties. Summary: The White House said India will purchase more than $500bn of US goods across energy, technology, agriculture and coal. India will eliminate or reduce tariffs on US industrial goods and a broad

Prior 99.5 Full report here The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.2 points in January to 99.3 and remained above its 52-year average of 98. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, three increased and seven decreased. Expected real sales volume was the only component with substantial change, increasing by 6 points. The Uncertainty Index

Australian business activity cooled slightly in January, but easing cost pressures offered fresh encouragement on the inflation outlook. Earlier: Weak Australian consumer sentiment backs March RBA pause, Westpac still sees May hike Summary: Australian business confidence edged higher in January, while business conditions eased modestly from December. Sales and profits slowed slightly but remain around

Justin posted yesterday on: China calls on banks to reduce US Treasuries exposure amid “market volatility” – report I added a little more: ICYMI bombshell: China tells banks to curb US Treasury exposure, “sell-America” nerves China is letting the yuan rise at the same time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was 0.4% Export prices M/M 0.3% vs 0.1% expected Prior 0.5% Import prices Y/Y 0.0% vs 0.1% prior Export prices Y/Y 3.1% vs 3.3% prior The US Import and Export Price Indexes are monthly reports released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that track the change in prices for goods and services traded

The Japan snap election result was expected, with Takaichi and the ruling LDP party picking up a landslide victory. Takaichi has more than solidified her mandate and power positioning, with a ‘supermajority’ also being achieved. That being said, the reaction in the Japanese yen currency hasn’t quite reflected that for now. The yen is sitting

S&P 500 futures are flat just ahead of the open. Here are some of the stocks on the move. The Big Movers (>5%) S&P Global (SPGI) -15.9%: The biggest mover on the board, and not in a good way. Weak profit and a disappointing full-year outlook are hammering the stock. Datadog (DDOG) +14%: A double-digit

Japan prime minister Takaichi solidified her standing in the snap election over the weekend, with her ruling LDP party claiming a landslide victory and securing a ‘supermajority’ mandate. That allows her to proceed with her fiscal expansion, spreading her dovish wings in pushing for a suspension of food sales tax for two years. The Takaichi

Prior was +0.6% Details: Ex-autos 0.0% vs +0.3% expected Prior ex autos +0.5% (revised to +0.4%) Ex autos and gas 0.0% vs +0.4% prior(revised to +0.3%) Control group -0.1%% vs +0.4% expected Prior control +0.4% Retail sales y/y % vs +3.33% prior USD/JPY was trading down 72 pips to 155.13 prior to this report and

Trump and Chinese President Xi will meet in the first week of April, according to Politico. The pair spoke last week and that may have helped to finalize the agenda for the meeting. They previously held a high-profile bilateral meeting on October 30, 2025, in Busan, South Korea, on the sidelines of the APEC (Asia-Pacific

Alphabet is set to test investor appetite with a rare 100-year bond, reviving a structure unseen in tech since the dot-com era. Summary: Alphabet is planning to issue a rare 100-year bond as part of a large multi-tranche debt sale. The century bond will be denominated in sterling, marking Alphabet’s debut in the UK bond

For some context, the BOJ board nominee here will be one to replace Asahi Noguchi – whose term will end on 31 March. Noguchi was a former economics professor at Senshu University and joined to BOJ board in April 2021. He has always been one of the more dovish members, advocating for a more “measured”

Singapore’s economy finished 2025 on a stronger footing than expected, prompting authorities to lift 2026 growth and export forecasts. Summary: Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected in Q4, beating official advance estimates on both annual and quarterly measures. Full-year 2025 growth was revised higher, confirming strong momentum into year-end. Authorities upgraded the 2026 GDP growth

Australian consumer confidence slumped again in February, strengthening the case for an RBA pause in March, though analysts still see a May rate hike if inflation stays sticky. Summary: Australian consumer sentiment fell for a third straight month in February, sinking deeper into pessimistic territory. Higher interest rates and cost-of-living pressures are weighing heavily on

A report that China is nudging banks to trim US Treasury exposure added to “sell-America” nerves, but markets still assume any shift would be gradual, not a disorderly dump. Justin had the breaking on this here yesterday: China calls on banks to reduce US Treasuries exposure amid “market volatility” – report but I wanted to

IC Markets, a leading global forex and CFD provider, will participate in iFX Expo Dubai 2026 as an Elite Sponsor, reinforcing its continued investment in technology, partnerships, and long-term growth across global markets. With nearly two decades of experience serving traders worldwide, IC Markets will use the event to highlight its institutional-grade infrastructure, deep liquidity

Japanese equities surged to record highs as strong earnings and post-election fiscal optimism fuelled a powerful rally in both the Nikkei and Topix. Info via Reuters reporting. Earlier: Japan election clears path for fiscal push, analysts see equity upside but debt risks Summary: Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix both hit record highs as earnings optimism

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda. The markets might just chop around amid lack of catalysts. There’s a lot of noise at the moment as we approach the US NFP report tomorrow, so be careful out there. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, the highlights will be the

Japan’s new government is pushing to fast-track its budget and tax agenda, with food tax cuts and funding options now under active discussion. Summary: Japan’s finance minister said the government aims to pass next year’s budget and tax reform as quickly as possible. Officials pledged to limit the impact of any budget delays on households.

BoE’s Mann warned US tariffs are lifting UK inflation, as China pushes higher export prices onto Britain rather than the United States. Summary: Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann said US tariffs are feeding into higher UK inflation via Chinese export pricing. China has cut prices for exports to the US but raised prices to

The Trump administration is preparing a sweeping rollback of US climate regulation, upending emissions rules and reshaping the outlook for energy, autos and clean-tech markets. Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report. Summary: The Trump administration plans to repeal the 2009 “endangerment finding,” the legal foundation for US greenhouse-gas regulation. The move would remove federal

Trump has posted a bit of a rant to his social media app. The main gist seems to be about a bridge. Anyway, USD/CAD is up a few tics. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NY Fed January survey: One-year inflation expectations fall to 3.1% from 3.4% Trump and Xi will meet in the first week of April ECB’s Lagarde: We expect inflation to stabilize at our 2% medium term target ECB unlikely to react to a temporary dip below 2% inflation – Nagel Bank of France Governor Villeroy announces

The People’s Bank of China is still letting the CNY climb higher. Along with this news I think this is all very significant: ICYMI bombshell: China tells banks to curb US Treasury exposure, “sell-America” nerves As Trump fumbles the ball, China is picking it up and running hard with it. — The People’s Bank of