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Israel and Hezbollah went at it over the weekend with bombing which did not do a lot of damage. It can be compared to a playground fight, where some haymakers missed, and ended with a wrestling match broken up by the playground monitor. US General CQ Brown is out saying that the immediate risk of […]

Quick look below at today’s biggest FX option expiries via Newsquawk. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

USD: Bearish The bank expects a weaker USD in the medium term due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and slower US growth. But downside is somewhat balanced by the fact that a significant amount of easing is already priced in (approximately 190bps). Risks include the potential for slower-than-expected Fed easing and uncertainties around the upcoming

Goldman has cut it’s average 2025 Brent forecast by $5. I think yesterday’s developments in oil markets shows how futile price targets are when it comes to volatile assets like oil (for all assets to be fair). WTI futures are currently trading close to $77 per barrel after yesterday’s solid push higher, which got within

The big recent upside momentum in EURUSD has caught me by surprise. The pair is currently sandwiched between major resistance at 1.1278 (the July 2023 high) and support at 1.1140 (the December 2023 high). Now if we look at 2-year and 10-year yield differentials, we can see that the pair has basically just been following

Fed officials continue to keep the possibility of a 50bp on the table. Yesterday’s comments from Daly sounded similar to that of Powell that they don’t want to see further weakening of the economy and labour market from here. Even though she said it’s reasonable to adjust policy at the normal cadence (25bp cuts), she

GBP has testified of its high beta properties after its rapid recovery in August alongside other risky assetsExpected downside in EURGBP below 0.85 and upside in GBPUSD above 1.30 to extendMaintains long recommendation in GBPCHFMain drivers of the bullish view is positive global risk sentiment, lower yields, and improving UK domestic data (demonstrated by recent

Deutsche Bank is keeping its year-end EUR/USD 1.10 for now but says that would change if the Fed cuts by 50 basis points on September 18. Some highlights from the latest note from Deutsche Bank FX: New “Powell put” emerging – market to price 25bps cuts as floor, not ceilingCurrent environment supportive of risk appetite

The USDCAD from April to July was confined in an up-and-down trading range between 1.3586 and 1.3803. Finally, in July, the pair broke higher reaching a level of 1.39458 on August 5. However, since then the pair as moved back into the up-and-down consolidation range, and then below the low of that range last week

It was looking awfully grim in the oil market last week as WTI crude fell through the summer lows to the worst levels since early February. What was particularly damaging is that it was coming at a time of positive risk appetite. But oil has bounced back in three strong days of gains, including a

The USDCHF hasn’t really done a lot over the last day and a half of trading including the first few hours of trading today. That has allowed things like the 100-hour moving average to get closer to the price. Having said that, it is still 40 or so pips away (above) which keeps the sellers

The PBOC sets the USDCNY central rate at 7.1249 not far from the estimate of 7.1245. That is up from previous setting at 7.1132. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

As the North American session comes to an end, the CAD is ending as the strongest of the majors, while the NZD is the weakest. The USD is ending the day mostly higher with gains vs all the major currencies with the exception of the CAD (-0.16%) and the CHF (-0.04%). To start the trading

Russia is fighting back from the recent Ukraine offensive. Witnesses are reporting that the third round of explosions have been heard in the Ukraine capital of Kyiv. Earlier this reported that Russia launched drone attack on Kyiv. According to the Ukraine military, air defense systems were reportedly operating in the region to fight back against

What’s the world’s largest asset class? It’s real estate. But what are homes worth when there is an empty house on your block with no one to fill it? What if there are 10 empty houses? John Authers recently wrote about declining fertility trends and pricing them into markets. By now, most people have seen

. Comments from Daly on Bloomberg TV: Hard to imagine anything that could derail Sept rate cutTime to adjust policy is upon usDon’t want to keep making policy tighter as inflation comes downThe risks to our goals are now balancedMost likely outcome is that we continue to see gradual inflation slowing, sustainable pace of labor

Germany received a tipoff from a foreign intelligence service on a possible Russian act of sabotage at a NATO site – NTV has been noted as the source. Apparently the tip-off alleged the potential act could involve a drone. Markets have grown very desensitized to geopolitical updates like these, and so far markets have not

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium as he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. The line saying that they will do everything they can to support a strong labour market was key. Despite this,

Commodities are mostly lower this morning with precious metals and base metals all trading in the red. Oil is up +.035% at the time of writing after further escalation between Israel and Lebanon over the weekend. In recent weeks oil have been more sensitive to good news on the geopolitical side compared to bad news,

We last heard from Daly on August 18 when she said: Calls for “prudent” approach to lowering ratesPushed back on concerns of sharp economic slowdownRecent data gives “more confidence” inflation is under controlNo need for dramatic response to weakening labor market I’ll be curious if that ‘prudent’ language or something similar remains as it was

Goldman Sachs sees potential for further gains in the British Pound, maintaining a long GBP/CHF position with a target of 1.16, driven by both positive global risk sentiment and strong domestic data. Key Points: Pound Recovery: The GBP has quickly rebounded from early August losses, benefiting from improved global risk sentiment, evidenced by the currency’s

Canada’s governing Liberal party is being destroyed in the polls and will almost surely lose in an election that must be called between now and October 20, 2025 at the latest. The election will almost-certainly be fought over immigration levels and the housing and infrastructure crunch that came with it. Here’s a chart to highlight

Tuesday 8/27 Before Ope Nordstrom (JWN)Scotiabank (BNS) Wednesday 8/28 Before Open: Kohl’s (KSS)Chewy (CHWY)Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)Bath & Body Works (BBWI)Foot Locker (FL) After Close: NVIDIA (NVDA)CrowdStrike (CRWD)Salesforce (CRM) Thursday 8/29 Before Open: Best Buy (BBY)Dollar General (DG)Abercrombie & Fitch (AEO) After Close: Dell Technologies (DELL)Marvell Technology (MRVL)Lululemon (LULU)Ulta Beauty (ULTA) This article was written

An iPhone event has been rumored for awhile and it will be no surprise if it leans heavily on AI. Third Point hedge fund manager Dan Loeb recently bought Apple shares and wrote about them in the fund’s most-recent letter: Apple Intelligence” suite to drive iPhone upgrade cycleApp Store likely to become primary platform for

Today’s Market Overview Investors and traders observed a significant rally in the tech and telecom sectors, contrasted by notable drags in other areas like consumer cyclicals and semiconductors. This daily snapshot offers a focused look at these sectors, identifying opportunities and risks from today’s trading activity. 🚀 Tech Sector Analysis Communication Services: Google (GOOG) leads

Swiss Non-Farm Payrolls Q2:5.499 vs 5.484M prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

It’s that time of the month again with Friday the last trading day of the month and corporate month-end coming up on Wednesday. Month-end flows: Usually a time when big investors, like pension funds and mutual funds, might adjust or rebalance their portfolios at the end of each month. Corporate month-end flows: financial activities from

Watch the video – NVDA Stock before earnings on Aug 28, 2024. Technical analysis and price forecast. Looking for ATH: Historical context: NVIDIA has been on a strong uptrend since 2013, with significant momentum building in 2024, leading to a breakout from a trading range earlier this year. Current technical setup: The stock recently reached

USD/CAD is back to where it was in early April as today’s lift in oil prices combines with weeks of broad US dollar selling to squeeze the pair lower. Today, Canada’s government announced China tariffs on EVs, aluminum and steel but those moves were leaked in advance and are not market movers. What’s helping to

Let’s make it clear what’s going on here: Canada got its orders from the US and followed them. This also isn’t a surprise as it was floated weeks ago. The tariffs will be 100% on EVs and 25% on aluminum and steel. The steel one is the most bizarre as Canada just sold off its

The Jackson Hole Summit has concluded and was highlighted by the speech from Fed Chair Powell on Friday where he explicitly the way for a rate cut in rate in September. The cut will be the first change in policy since July 2023 when the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to a high

The poster child of the AI theme is reporting earnings this week, with options markets implying a close to 10% move for Ndivia on their earnings release this week. Given the over 6% weighting in the S&P and close to 12% weighting in the Nasdaq it can really move the needle should earnings offer meaningful

The most recent update for the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is sitting at 2%. This number can of course still be revised lower thoughout the quarter should US data push lower. But as it stands at 2%, it makes the case for 50bp (emergency) cuts from the Fed a bit of a strange one. All eyes

Closing changes on Monday: Stoxx 600 flatGerman DAX flatFrancis CAC +0.2%UK’s FTSE 100 closed for holidaySpain’s IBEX flatItaly’s FTSE MIB -0.1% Many markets are back near the all-time highs but it’s still a ways to go for France to even get to the 200-day moving average. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

General business activity: -9.7 vs -17.5 priorCompany outlook: -9.6 vs -18.4 priorPrices paid: +28.2 vs +23.1 priorNew orders: -4.2 vs -12.8 priorShipments: +0.8 vs -16.3 priorEmployment: -0.7 vs +7.1 prior These are decently-hot numbers. This isn’t a market mover but it speaks to the steady state of the economy rather than a looming recession. Note

Libyan eastern-based government says all oil fields closing down, halting production and exports – statement. Force majeure announced in response to the attempts to takeover the central bank by the Tripoli-based governments. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Not much data has been released in the past 10 days so it’s no surprise to see GDPNow flat. “The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.0 percent on August 26, unchanged from August 16 after rounding. After recent releases from the US

US stock markets closed on the highs on Friday, led by a surge in small caps. Last week: S&P 500 +1.4%Nasdaq Comp +1.4%DJIA +1.3%Russell 2000 +3.4%Toronto TSX Comp +4.1% Today, futures are tepidly higher with spoos up 8 pints, or 0.15%. Nasdaq futures are slightly lower. The S&P 500 is about 35 points from the

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin was on an episode of Odd Lots that was published earlier today. I’ve been listening to it this morning and still working my way through it. Some headlines have hit: Will take a ‘test and learn’ approach to rate cutsCurrent ‘low-hiring, low-firing’ approach companies now take to employment is unlikely

Sentiment remains mixed as we head deeper into today’s EU session. • FX continues to follow its own path on the sentiment side today with safe haven JPY and CHF maintaining their lead, while high beta AUD and NZD are the clear laggards. • US and EMEA equity futures have found a bit more love

Today the calendar is pretty empty on the data front with the UK on holiday and just a couple of second-tier releases. The German IFO is expected at 86.5 vs. 87.0 prior, but it shouldn’t be a market moving report given that it’s correlated with the Germany Composite PMI, and therefore not a “fresh” news.

German Ifo Business Climate index: 86.6 vs 86.0 expected German Ifo Current Conditions index 86.5 vs 86.5 expected German Ifo Expectations index 86. vs 86.5 expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 105 bps (*61% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 66 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 44 bps (70% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 78 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA:

Libya’s Al Waha Company says it will start partial reduction in production, “continued pressure” will lead to complete halt – statement. Oil continues to grind higher on the news with WTI testing close to $76.50. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium as he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. The line saying that they will do everything they can to support a strong labour market was key. Despite this,

Prior was -6.7%New orders for manufactured durable goods jumped 9.9% to $289.6 billion in JulyBlows past market forecasts, reverses June’s 6.9% declineTransportation equipment orders skyrocketed 34.8% to $102.2 billion, driving the increaseEx-transport -0.2% vs -0.1% expectedPrior ex-transport +0.4% (revised to +0.1%)Excluding defense, new orders rose 10.4% vs -7.2% prior (revised to -7.5%)Nondefense capital goods orders

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium as he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. The line saying that they will do everything they can to support a strong labour market was key. That is

Oil continues to extent on gains after Libya announced a force majeure on all facilities, terminals and oil fields. Next major resistance on the chart is the 200DMA coming up around $77.76. It also has confluence with the 2 standard deviation implied volatility high for the day. This article was written by Arno V Venter

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

US yields are lower to start the trading weekPBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1139 (vs. estimate at 7.1132)Japan’s Nikkei 225 index falls near -1.00% at the openE-mini S&P contract is little changedCrude oil trading marginally higher to start the trading week. Tests key hourly MA.It is a UK bank holiday today.Gaza talks end

• The bank suggests that EURUSD is overvalued, and that the pair has overshot its fundamentals • Thinks near-term fair value is closer to 1.10 for EURUSD • They expect better US data in coming months to push back on excessive rate cut expectations to support the USD • Believes 100bp of cuts priced for

Currencies have traded in tight ranges as we get the new week underway without any meaningful fundamental catalysts behind today’s moves. The JPY (white) is in the lead this morning. Some are attributing the JPY’s Asia-Pac strength to the difference in tone on Friday between Gov Ueda and Chair Powell. The is second strongest on

Libya’s Al Waha Company says it will start partial reduction in productionWTI extends gains with news that Libya will be stopping all production and exportsEarnings in focus this week again with NvidiaGermany received a tip-off about potential Russian sabotage act at a NATO siteFX not playing ball with commodities and equity performance todayAtlanta Fed GDPNow

Mixed Signals: Stocks are riding high on economic optimism, but bonds are telling a story of slower economic growth. This split view could lead to overall bearish surprises for equities should the bond market prove to be correct. Rate Cuts on the Horizon?: The Fed is currently expected to cut rates by more than the

Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday was enough to keep the hopes of a 50bp cut(s) alive. We’ve seen the implied rate path push lower following Friday’s speech, with money markets pricing in close to 200bp of cuts by July next year. Given the current state of US economic data this view seems

It’s a fairly light start to the week with today’s economic calendar. EU Session: The main highlight for the EU session is the German Ifo data for August 2022. Data out of the Eurozone has been surprising to the downside for quite some time now (looking at the surprise index below), which means another weak

The USD is continuing its run to the downside today with the USDJPY and the USDCHF making some of the biggest moves.Last week, Fed Chair Powell paved the way for a cut at the September meeting. Today lower US yields are also helping the dollars move lower. In this video, I take a look at

Minutes-Swedish C. Bank Statement: The uncertainty over the inflation outlook motivated a continued gradual adjustment of monetary policyMinutes-Swedish C. Bank’s Seim: Share in the assessment that the policy rate can be cut another two or three times this year.Minutes-Swedish C. Bank Statement: If the outlook for inflation stays the same, the policy rate can be

Japan Leading Indicator Revised: -2.1 vs -2.6 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters Poll: India annual GDP growth seen at 6.9% in April-June (vs 7.8% in previous quarter).Reuters Poll: India economy to grow 7.0% in 2024-25 and 6.7% in 2025-26 (unchanged from July poll) This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Nikkei is trading down -0.91% at 38019. Looking at the daily chart, the price is below is 100-day moving average at 38637.55, but above its 200-day moving average below at 37233.10 (blue and green lines respectively). The last 7 – trading days has seen the price settle between those key MA levels. With five

Crude oil is trading up around $0.26 or 0.36% that $75.16. The rise comes after increased tensions in the Middle East. Technically, looking at the hourly chart the 200 hour moving average comes in at $75.20 (green line on the chart above). Getting and staying above that level would have traders targeting the 50% of

Equity futures are trading mostly mixed this morning (not too surprising with a quiet calendar today and this week). It’s been a fight between the Hang Seng (supported by real es and ASX200 (helped by stronger performance in real estate and tech) for the top spot this morning, with the majority of EMEA and US

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Gaza talks in Cairo end without an agreement. Aiios is out saying: “Gaza talks will continue in the coming days through working groups to address issues and remaining details” Meanwhile on Sunday, the rockets were flying in Israel. Israel launched a preemptive airstrike on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, reportedly using 100 jet fighters to hit

The EURUSD is trading near unchanged to start the new trading week. Last week, the USD faced selling pressure, which drove the EURUSD price higher as the Federal Reserve Chair hinted at the possibility of a rate cut at the upcoming September meeting. This momentum pushed the price briefly above the 1.1200 mark, reaching a

The USDJPY is moving lower to start the new trading week with the price extending below 144.00. On Friday, the low for the day reached 144.038 before bouncing . The low price just reached 143.993. Technically, looking at the daily chart, the 50% midpoint of the move up from the January 2023 low comes in

US yields are lower to start a trading week. Reviewing last week’s changes: 2-year yield fell -13.4 basis points to 3.920%5-year yield fell -10.9 basis points to 3.650%10-year yield fell -8.3 basis points to 3.801%30-year yield fell -4 point basis points to 4.092% The yields to start the trading week are showing: 2-year yield 3.889%,

The US e-mini S&P contract is trading above and below unchanged at 5652.75. The high-priced has reached 5659.25 of the low price has extended down to 5646.50 Last week, the major indices closed up for the second consecutive week. Dow rose 1.27% after rising 2.94% the week before,S&P index rose 1.45% after rising 3.93% the

The UK markets will be closed in observance of the Summer Bank Holiday. I guess that makes sense. Next Monday September 2, the US and Canada will have the day off in observance of Labor Day, which kind-of does not make sense (No work on Labor Day). Partly sunny skies will with highs of 23°C

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: PBoC MLF, German IFO, US Durable Goods Orders.Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence.Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI, Nvidia Earnings.Thursday: US Q2 GDP 2nd Estimate, US Jobless Claims.Friday: Tokyo CPI, Japan Retail Sales, Eurozone Flash CPI and Unemployment Rate, Canada GDP, US PCE. Tuesday The US Consumer Confidence is expected at 100.1 vs. 100.3 prior. The

Mon: UK Market Holiday (Bank Holiday), German Ifo (Aug)Tue: CBRT Minutes, Chinese Industrial Profit (Jul), German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Sep)Wed: Australian CPI (Jul), Nvidia (NVDA) Earnings (Q2)Thu: Spanish Flash CPI (Aug), German State CPIs (Aug), EZ Sentiment Survey (Aug), US GDP (2nd) and PCE (Q2)Fri: Japanese Tokyo CPI (Aug), French Prelim CPI (Aug), German Unemployment

The US dollar has fallen to new lows on the day pretty much across the board (not yet against GBP). The market is continuing to digest the Powell comments and it’s the front end of the yield curve where the strongest buying remains. US 2s are down 9 bps to 3.92% and near the lows

IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas spoke in an interview with Reuters at the Jackson Hole annual economic symposium on Friday. Saud the BoJ can continue to raise rates gradually, a ‘data dependent’ pace: inflation is higher than the Bank’s 2% targetinflation expectations have started to move “maybe even a little bit above” that targetBOJ’s beginning

Powell offered a lift to US stock markets but there was some mid-day angst along with signs of sector rotation into pro-cyclical small caps. Closing changes on the day: S&P 500 +1.2%Nasdaq Comp +1.5%DJIA +1.2%Russell 2000 +3.1%Toronto TSX Comp +1.1% (record high) On the week: S&P 500 +1.4%Nasdaq Comp +1.4%DJIA +1.3%Russell 2000 +3.4%Toronto TSX Comp

Bitcoin has been lagging in the recovery from the broad market rout in the start of August, in part because of worries about the sale of Mt. Gox bitcoin. But it’s making up for lost time today, rallying nearly 5% and trading at a session high. The daily chart has a nice look as it

Powell at Jackson Hole: The time has come for policy to adjustBOE’s Bailey: Market events like two weeks ago will happen, test is whether more triggeredFed’s Goolsbee: We want to be careful about the employment side of the mandateGoolsbee: The size of Fed cuts isn’t important, it’s the pathECB’s Rehn: European growth outlook is looking

In the annual walk-around at Jackson Hole, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem was see alongside Bailey and Powell. The BOC leader could be keeping quiet ahead of the Sept 4 meeting but we may also get an interview or two with him from Jackson Hole later today or on the weekend. This article was

The great stock market turnaround in August was impressive in many ways but when I take a step back, there was one big question being asked and answered: Is the Fed behind the curve? Within that question is a set of assumptions about the US economy and if you look at the economic data, there

Almost everyone on the committee thinks inflation is coming down and that there will be multiple cuts over calendar 2024 and 2025Speed and size of cuts to be determined by economic dataNeutral rates are ‘far from where we are’There is some question on the strength of the consumer, that said if you look at the

In brief: Expectations from the survey are that core CPI is forecast to rise 2.7% y/y in July vs 2.6% in JuneThis would register inflation above the BOJ 2% target for the 28th straight monthEnd of energy subsidies likely boosted headline figure I posted on this earlier this week but repeating it here. The data

Bank of America highlights that historically, the US Dollar Index (DXY) tends to rise from August through US election day in November, suggesting potential USD strength leading into the upcoming election. Key Points: Seasonal Trends: Since 1970, the DXY typically shows strength in August, weakness from September to mid-October, and then regains strength into late

The next step depends on data pointsInflation moved a lot faster than expectedI list the range of potential Fed decisions from no cut to 50 bpsSolid business conditions give the Fed space to be patient The market is right to price in a return to 3.00% but what I’m thinking about is: under what conditions

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda again from parliament: BOJ’s policy path to neutral interest rate remains highly uncertainJapan’s short-term interest rate is still very low so if the economy is in good shape, BOJ will move rates up to levels deemed neutral to economyThere is very high uncertainty on where Japan’s policy rate might eventually

We already have plenty of data to make our decision in SeptemberDisinflation and a weak economy support a Sept cutDowntrend in inflation is on trackWe are still seeing strong services inflationThe disinflationary process has been ongoing since autumn 2022 and it’s still going onAsked about 50 bps, says they always have to be openSays he

There is a good battle going on in the S&P 500 today. The initial Powell pop staleld at yesterday’s high and then pulled back to 5595. It rebounded from there in another push at the highs but the bulls couldn’t break out. Now another round of profit taking has hit. That’s something of an ominous

The main highlight of the day for North American traders comes at 10 am ET with Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole (US new home sales are due at the same time). Before that, Canada gets a moment in the spotlight with June retail sales at 8:30 am ET. The consensus is -0.3%, which was the

GfK Consumer Confidence still net pessimistic but holding at its highest since around three years ago. Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK: “This more positive outlook may be due to a mortgage-friendly interest rate cut at the beginning of August, and hopes of more to come” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is the star of the show, he is speaking at 10am US Eastern time on Friday, August 23, 2024. This is an awesome preview: Preview: What to expect from Powell at Jackson Hole Speakers incldue: Bank of England Governor Bailey (on the 23rd) Philip Lane, European Central Bank Here is the

Headlines: Preview: What to expect from Powell at Jackson HoleFrom angst to relief for US equities?GBP/USD lingers near the 2023 high as buyers hope for a breakout to end the weekFrance August business confidence 97 vs 94 priorBOJ governor Ueda reaffirms closely watching market moves with high sense of urgencyBOJ governor Ueda: Markets remain unstable,

US equity futures are strong after a poor day yesterday. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% yesterday and the Nasdaq fell 1.8%. Futures show a 0.6% gain for the S&P 500 and 1.0% in the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 is on pace to enter Jackson Hole with the second strongest year-to-date performance since the year 2000.

We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labour marketWe will do everything we can to support strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability This is undoubtedly dovish My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%Upside risks to inflation have diminished, downside risks to

European stock markets have recouped all the declines from the early-August rout with another strong rally today. It’s the fourth gain in five days this week. On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.5%German DAX +0.8%France CAC +0.7%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.5%Spain’s IBEX +1.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.0% On the week: Stoxx 600 +1.4%German DAX +1.7%France CAC +1.7%UK’s FTSE

I don’t like tying our hands for any meeting but Fed funds minus inflation is as high as it’s been in decadesInflation is on a path to 2%We’re the tightest we’ve been in this cycle, even though we stopped hiking last JulyFed forecasts show widespread support for rate cutsIt’s hard to put a specific number

Prior was 0.617mMedian sales price: vs $417,300 priorSeasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July vs 476,000 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Suzuki: can’t rule out the possibility of Japan’s economy falling back into deflationWeak yen has pros and consJapan has taken action, including FX intervention, as excessive volatility in forex is not desirable Ueda and Suzuki Earlier: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says BOJ’s policy steps were appropriateBOJ Governor Ueda says concerns over

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.3% European indices closed lightly changed yesterday, unlike US stocks which closed modestly lower. But the mood music today is a fairly steadier one, with S&P 500 futures now seen up nearly 0.4%. So, that’s helping to balance out risk sentiment a little as we look to the session

Market events like those of two weeks ago or so will happen; the test is not whether they happen but whether they trigger wider instabilityCautiously optimistic that inflation expectations are anchoredCommunicating when we decide to accommodate short-run shocks or trade-off between inflation and activity is essential but difficultToo early to declare victory on inflationThe course

Ueda was asked whether normalisation of monetary policy was too slow: replied that the BOJ’s policy steps were appropriate Earlier: BOJ Governor Ueda says concerns over US economy slowdown behind recent market routBoJ Ueda will adjust monetary easing if our economy price outlook is likely to be achieved Ueda speaking in parliament This article was

The US dollar has fallen sharply after a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said it was time to pivot policy and he added a key line about keeping the jobs market strong. “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.” That line

The S&P 500 pulled back in a round of profit taking after initially failing to break yesterday’s high but the FX market isn’t having any doubts. EUR/USD is at the highest in a year, up 78 pips to 1.1190. It’s not just the euro either as the US dollar falls to the lows of the

May was -0.8%Preliminary June was -0.3%Sales down 0.5% in Q2Preliminary July +0.6%Ex autos +0.3% vs -0.2% expectedPrior ex-autos -1.3% (revised to -1.2%)Ex autos and gasoline +0.4% vs -1.4% prior These are some good numbers from the Canadian consumer. The ex autos number for June is a surprise while the July preliminary reading is a big

Canadian rail workers are coming back on the job after a short-lived lockout of both national railways. CN workers have taken down picket lines while CP workers are still awaiting the official order but that should be coming imminently. Minister of Labour Steven MacKinnon ordered the move: “These collective bargaining negotiations belong to CN Rail,

Here is the state of play after Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole in equity markets: S&P 500 up 1.3%Nasdaq Comp up 1.8%Russell 2000 up 2.2%DJIA +1.0% There is some resistance in the S&P 500 right now as it challenges yesterday’s opening high. If that doesn’t crack, then watch out for profit taking despite a dovish

Broad support starting to form for Sept cut but not a done dealInflation developing as expected, economic growth is weak, wage pressure easing The market was already pricing in a 99% chance of a move so this isn’t a big surprise but the early signalling also suggests that October is in play. Current Oct pricing

Friday at 10 am ET, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver his highly-anticipated annual speech at Jackson Hole in Wyoming. Current market pricing has been shifting away from 50 basis points; though retaining a high probability of 50 bps before the year is done. For the Sept meeting, the market sees a 75% chance

It’s been fairly one way traffic for equities since Asia trading. S&P 500 futures were lightly changed earlier in the day but are now up by roughly 0.5% ahead of US trading. Wall Street opened higher yesterday but surrendered gains during the session to close modestly lower. It can be argued that there was some

Japanese CPI Overall 2.8% y/y expected 2.7%, prior 2.8% Core CPI (excluding fresh food) 2.7% y/y expected 2.7%, prior 2.6% Core-core 1.9% y/y, first time under 2% since September 2022 expected 1.9%, prior 2.2%excluding fresh food and energy, this is the closest to US core inflation The Bank of Japan have been very fussy over

Overview of Today’s Market Today’s trading session exhibits a mixed performance across various sectors, with notable uplifts in technology and energy sectors, while other areas show more restrained movements. This analysis harnesses the vivid landscape depicted in the latest stock market heatmap, providing traders and investors with insights critical for informed decision-making. Technology Sector Leads

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level again. Similar to yesterday, the expiries are likely to help lock price action from falling off too much in the session ahead. That at least until we get to Fed chair Powell’s

Seeking Alpha (gated) with the info from a note from UBS on oil, expects Brent to recover into an $85-90/ bbl range over the coming months. The note is a good summary of the mix of factors at play. On demand and the recent slide in price: recession fears in the US, ongoing ceasefire hopes

Earlier from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: BOJ Governor Ueda says concerns over US economy slowdown behind recent market routBoJ Ueda will adjust monetary easing if our economy price outlook is likely to be achievedBank of Japan Governor Ueda says BOJ’s policy steps were appropriateJapan fin min Suzuki says intervention action taken as excess volatility

Inflation has come way downWe are close to being ready to cut ratesWe’re going to have to think hard about what’s happening in labor marketsOur policy has had its effect and we can start pathway back to normal policy postureThe numbers in the last couple months have come in more positiveUnderlying inflation is all flashing

Reuters on Thursday with a snippet from Citi analysts, saying they see the possibility for a bounce in Brent crude to the low to mid US$80 range. Citit argue that upside risks in the market remain: from still-tight balances through August, heightened geopolitical risks across North Africa and the Middle East, the possibility of weather-related

The focus is once again on Japan today. I posted a heads up preview here: Japan will release July inflation data on FridayReminder, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will speak in Japan’s parliament on FridayThis snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the

Rapid FX moves are undesirableImportant for currencies to move in stable manner, reflecting fundamentalsIntervention was response to speculative move and excessive volatility I would argue that it was only effective as the BOJ also delivered on their part of the bargain. Otherwise, it would have been a repeat story to previous intervention attempts by Tokyo.

Ueda and Suzuki: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says real rates likely remain negativeJapan finance minister Suzuki: Can’t tell whether strong yen has bigger demerits or meritsBoJ Gov Ueda again: July rate hike was done under accommodative conditionsBank of England Governor Bailey speaking on Friday, August 23, 2024Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says FX moves

He says that inflation trend in the euro area is consistent with further gradual ECB rate cuts. Adding that with the projections now assuming two more rate cuts by year-end, there is “no reason now not to follow through” on that. I would take that as meaning two rate cuts at the minimum. Currently, markets

Prior 94Services confidencePrior 95Manufacturing confidencePrior 95 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda still speaking in parliament. More specifically on the yen now: FX rates could affect economy through various routes FX moves affect economy through various channels FX moves at times could affect economy, as well as risks to economic forecast FX moves could affect BOJ’s median forecast BOJ hiked rates in

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The pound has quietly been an outperformer among the major currencies in trading this year. Amid a more resilient economy and stickier inflation, the BOE has seen their rate cut plans pushed back. And that has helped to underpin the currency as most other major central banks are on track to cut rates further. The

I posted the agenda for all the speakers at the Kansas City Fed’s annual central bank symposium taking place in Jackson Hole Wyoming, August 22 to 24: Here’s the full agenda of all the speakers at Jackson Hole – some big hitters in here We’ve had the heads-up on Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech for

August US S&P Global services PMI 55.2 vs 54.0 expectedUS initial jobless claims 232K vs 230K expectedUS July existing home sales 3.95m vs 3.93m expectedEurozone August flash consumer confidence -13.4 vs -12.6 expectedFed’s Collins: Timing seems appropriate to begin easing monetary policyCollins: Soon is appropriate to begin cutting ratesHarker: We see softening in jobs from

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

He has offered quite a number of remarks already today as Eamonn summarised here. USD/JPY is lower by 0.4% to 145.70 currently but also owes to some slight softness in the dollar. 10-year Treasury yields are down 1.6 bps to 3.846% so that is also weighing. But the general undertone from Ueda today is that

The BOJ’s more hawkish tone from their rate hike caused a turmoil in markets at the start of August. Deputy governor Uchida then tried to calm the mood by saying that they won’t raise rates so long as markets are unstable. That caused a bit of a stir as markets took that to possibly mean

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX +0.6%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% as risk sentiment holds steadier to start the session. All eyes are on Fed chair Powell’s appearance later today to set the mood before the weekend. It is anticipated that he will confirm expectations of

The subject matter for Australian Treasurer Chalmers is said to be RBA legislation. Can’t wait! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Hawkish headline comment from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda concerns about slowing US economy caused recent market routclosely watching market moves with a sense of urgency as uncertainties remaindomestic and overseas markets remain unstabledecided to raise rates in July due to risk of price overshoot driven by import costseconomy is moving in line with price

More from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, speaking extensively in the Diet today: By keeping current monetary policy stance, will move closer to achieving price targetDecided at July MPM that adjusting degree of monetary easing appropriate from standpoint of stably, sustainably achieving price targetReal rates likely remain negative, easy financial conditions will keep supporting economy

As the dollar bounced back a little, gold fell by 1% and more importantly back under the $2,500 mark. Price is still keeping above the previous triple top pattern around $2,480 but buyers will be hoping to clinch a more convincing push above the figure level to solidify the breakout status. Instead, price action focus

Closely monitoring market situation with high sense of urgencyWhen market moves are big, will consider how that affects our forecasts in deciding policy The BOJ will next meet on 20 September and almost no one is considering a rate hike then. There is a minority quarter in markets anticipating a possible move in October next.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda again: Closely watch how market move affect price, economy outlookNo change to our stance that we would adjust degree of monetary easing if our economy price outlook is likely to be achievedWill continue to work coordinate with govtBOJ ready to scrutinise how market moves affect our economic, price outlook and

BOJ commentary is in the spotlight to start the day. Ueda is the main man appearing in parliament and he is doing his job to keep the calm in markets. USD/JPY is down on the day though, but it also owes to some slight softness in the dollar in general. After keeping steadier yesterday amid

A summary of a note from UBS on the dollar. UBS touch on the many alternatives being offered up right now. Fed’s July meeting minutes suggest a strong likelihood of a rate cut in Septemberthe minutes said that most participants believe US inflation is nearing the 2% targetconcerns over a slowing labor market are increasingthe

New Zealand’s economy was under intense pressure during the quarter after a long and sustained Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike cycle. There was some relief earlier this month, ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: RBNZ cuts rates but not showing in these figures of course. Q2 Retail Sales -1.2% q/q expected -1.0%, prior +0.5%

Japan finance minister Suzuki spoke earlier: Japan fin min Suzuki says intervention action taken as excess volatility not desirable Catching up on a little more from the fin min: Important for govt to work closely with BOJ on economic, financial situationsCan’t tell whether strong yen has bigger demerits or merits USD/JPY has stabilised after its

I posted earlier on the note on the UBS oil forecast: UBS is expecting Brent crude oil to recover into $85 – 90 range Citi is looking for the same direction: Citi says upside risk for oil, Brent possible bounce above $80 UBS analysts now on gold: target US$2,600/oz by the end of 2024 target

Justin had the data on the substantial slowdown: Eurozone wages slow down in Q2 after running hot in the previous quarterThis just further solidifies the narrative for a rate cut next month and tees up the potential for more in the final quarter of the year. Via Morgan Stanley: “We think that the first quarter

US equities opened higher but with Treasury yields rising and Powell on the agenda tomorrow, the worries crept it. Big cap tech was particularly soft as well. Aside from Powell, some may be eyeing Kamala Harris’ speech tonight as a risk. The S&P 500 traced an outside day, which is something of a red flag,

El-Erian spoke in an interview with Bloomberg (gated) Television on Thursday: “It is problematic in my mind that the market is pricing in so many rate cuts right now” “The market is overdoing it”“There’s this notion of a hard landing policy response to achieve a soft landing, that has got to be reconciled one way

European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks (governor of Latvia’s central bank) spoke on Thursday. He led with saying he’s very much open to a discussion on a September rate cut, and that even with a couple more cuts the Bank’s monetary policy would still be restrictive. A gradual approach to rate cuts would be

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday the euro touched the highest in a year as it rallied for a fourth straight day. A good chunk of that climb was on the heels of a broadly softening US dollar but the market is also feeling more comfortable with the idea that the eurozone isn’t headed for an ugly economic outcome. Today’s

1 bps tailBid to cover at 2.61 vs 2.43 prior The sale was a touch soft but I don’t see much reaction in the nominal market. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Canadian government says it’s exploring all possible solutions to ending a rail lockout that started today, including binding arbitration. Canadian rail lines carry massive amounts of freight, including into the US. Previously, collective agreements with CN and CP were staggered, so this is the first time they’ve even been shuttered at the same time.

The Nasdaq is now down 1.3% and the S&P 500 down 0.85% — both session lows. Some stops were hit on the latest leg down as the earlier lows gave way. There is some real angst ahead of Powell tomorrow but at least the weak hands are getting shaken out early. I don’t see any

Prior 51.9Manufacturing PMI 45.6 vs 45.8 expectedPrior 45.8Composite PMI 51.2 vs 50.1 expectedPrior 50.2 The beat in the French services sector is arguably what is driving the business expansion this month. So, again the caveat is that it is likely a one-off owing to the Paris Olympics. As such, the momentum might not carry on

Overview of Today’s Stock Market Performance The stock market today showcased a varied performance across different sectors, with clear standouts in the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, while energy and utility sectors witnessed a downtrend. This snapshot analysis will delve into specific sectors, providing investors and traders with insights on significant market dynamics driving today’s trading

Goldman Sachs analyzes effective FX hedges in scenarios where both US equities and yields decline, highlighting the most reliable currency positions. Safe-havens JPY and CHF, along with shorts in MXN and AUD, are identified as effective hedges. However, the costs associated with certain strategies prompt a preference for shorts in AUD or GBP due to

Policy is well-positioned, wants gradual, methodical approach to cuttingThere is a clear path to achieving Fed’s goals without unneeded downturn I’m starting to think “policy is well-positioned” is a code for saying that 50 bps isn’t needed. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

For some context, the Tankan survey is released by the BOJ once every quarter. And it is a general economic indicator of sorts with it being a survey on several thousand Japanese firms, ranging from small to big companies. It also covers a wide range of industries and provides some idea about overall sentiment. The

The dynamic recently has been — weaker dollar, lower yields, higher stocks. Today will be a challenge of that with yields down 4-6 bps across the curve and the dollar higher, particularly USD/JPY (up 75 bps). Fed pricing shows a 28% chance of a 50 bps cut, which is back to where it was before

Wants a gradual and methodical course of rates cutsCurrent monetary policy is in a good place, not overly restrictiveEnd of easing cycle may put Fed funds around 3%Business contacts favor a predictable pace of cuttingFed rate cuts will likely ease housing sector pressureUnemployment likely to rise to just below 5%Continues to watch commercial real estate

Flash PMIs from Australia and Japan due today. These are unlikely to move major FX much upon release. Yen crosses will be moving regardless, volatility is breeding more volatility in JPY. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most

Prior was 55.0Manufacturing PMI vs 49.6 expected (prior was 49.6)Composite PMI vs 53.5 expected (prior was 54.3) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Asked about job benchmark revisions, says data overall tells a consistent storyLabor market overall is quite healthy and we want to preserve thatUnemployment is still low and jobless claims indicate orderly rebalancingLabor market overall is quite healthy and we want to preserve thatSoon is appropriate to begin cutting ratesA gradual and methodical pace of cuts

Anxiety around Powell’s speech tomorrow has crept into equity markets, particularly in light of the comments from the Fed’s Schmid earlier today. He indicated that the Fed had time to evaluate before cutting rates and that was seen as a hawkish view. But I just watched the full interview and it’s not has hawkish as

Currency dynamics and inflation is always a tricky ordeal to debate and/or navigate through. But for most major economies, currency movements are rather controlled and arguably play a small role in terms of influencing price pressures. The same goes for the euro area, or so at least that is what the ECB has been preaching

The dollar is struggling across multiple charts on the week and USD/CAD is no exception. The loonie might be pinned down by falling oil prices this week but it still has been outperforming the dollar. And the slight fall so far today sees USD/CAD fall to its lowest since April on a break below its

The US dollar is higher today after two weeks of steady selling. It’s been supported by a rise in Treasury yields of 8-9 bps across the curve and comments from the Fed’s Schmid, who didn’t sound in a rush to cut rates. Economic data today also underscored an economy that’s fine, with initial jobless claims

Non-farm payrolls benchmark revisions -818KFOMC Minutes: Vast majority said it would likely be appropriate to cut at next meetingEIA weekly crude oil inventories -4649K vs -2672K expectedRFK Jr. to ‘address to the nation’ as talk of dropping out circulates (Update: He’s done)Target shares soar as the US consumer remains strongECB’s Panetta says he hopes the

Prior was 3.93mSales +1.3% vs -5.4% prior (breaks a four-month losing streak)Sales -2.5% y/yInventory 4.0 vs 4.1 months priorMedian prices $422,600 vs $426,900 priorPrices up 4.2% y/yFull report Supply is up 18% year over year. “Despite the modest gain, home sales are still sluggish,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “But consumers are definitely seeing

Jobs market revisions weren’t a surpriseYou can’t just look at revisions, look at jobless claimsIt was all inflation for awhile, now it’s the balance of risksBusinesses tell us they don’t care if it’s 25 or 50 bps, they want it to be methodical and get to neutralShelter is the price input I’m worrying aboutDevelopers are

Prior -32 UK factory orders fell once more this month but less than July at least. The output expectations balance remains positive at least, though down to 9 from 25 in the month before. CBI notes that “the stop-start recovery seen in recent months continued in August but it is encouraging that manufacturers still remain

Quite strongly believe that we have to sustainably get inflation back to 2%There is still work to do on thatWe’ve seen some cooling in labour market conditions but it is still generally pretty strongOn the NFP revision, “it doesn’t change a lot” to the outlookRates are not overly restrictiveThere is room to consider where we

WTI crude oil is up $1.15 today in a rebound after four days of heavy selling. It was a particularly curious move in crude given that the dollar was falling and risk assets were broadly stronger. Former Goldman Sachs chief commodity analyst Jeff Currie has weighed in with a theory that the selling was a

There are many markets available for traders, each serving different purposes. Stock markets are for investing in companies, crypto markets are for investing in blockchain projects, and so on. But the biggest market among them is forex. Why is the FX market the biggest? In this article, the team of analysts from FTD Limited, the

Prior was -13.0 This is a small setback but there has been a steady recovery from 2022 and that’s starting to be reflected in the FX market with the euro yesterday touching the highest in a year. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Cable eyes the 2023 high with dollar in the doldrumsECB accounts: Next meeting widely seen as good time to evaluate policy restrictivenessFrance August flash services PMI 55.0 vs 50.3 expectedGermany August flash manufacturing PMI 42.1 vs 43.5 expectedEurozone August flash services PMI 53.3 vs 51.9 expectedEurozone wages slow down in Q2 after running hot

The dollar remains under pressure this week, with bond yields sinking further in US trading yesterday. The revision to the non-farm payrolls here was a key factor, alongside the FOMC meeting minutes as well. A rate cut is certainly coming next month but traders are also growing more confident about a more dovish Fed in

The algos were at work when it comes to the reaction to the PMI data in the past half hour. The French numbers saw a strong beat on the services print as seen here. However, it owes to a major caveat of it being a boost in demand from the Paris Olympics. The details were

Eyes are back on the economic calendar today with some notable releases for the US economy. Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 ET: Expected to come in at 230K, slightly above last week’s 227K. The 4-week average will also be closely monitored.PMI data at 9:45 ET: S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs will provide insight

The commodities market remains an exciting space to monitor in August. Commodities play a pivotal role in the financial markets, an asset class employed to add diversification to a portfolio, acts as an inflation hedge, and is used for speculation and investment purposes. From gold clocking record highs to oil and copper prices navigating lower

You’ve been educating traders for over a decade. What is the most prevalent misconception or recurring mistake you’ve seen by traders? The most prevalent misconception we’ve observed at FX Evolution is the belief that trading success hinges solely on finding the “perfect” strategy. While having a solid strategy is essential, many traders overlook the importance

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.1%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB flat Barring any surprises, the euro area PMI data shouldn’t do much to distract from ECB pricing. So, the broader market mood will depend more on the US data later. S&P 500 futures are flat at the moment to start the session.

Prior was +0.05 (revised to -0.09) This is a composite of data that’s already released, so it’s not a market mover but it’s a view of the US economy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Well, the Q1 reading was largely impacted by a one-off from Germany and that was also confirmed by the Bundesbank earlier this week here. Given the circumstances, this should allow the ECB to breathe easier as wage pressures are beginning to turn around now. This just further solidifies the narrative for a rate cut next

The push higher yesterday sees the pair break its high for the year and solidifies a firm break above the 1.3000 mark this week. That now brings into focus the 2023 high as cable goes in search of a potential breakout to its highest since 2022. The music sheet in the chart above is reminiscent

Medium-term outlook had not changed overall relative to June meetingShort-term outlook has become somewhat more “stagflationary”But weaker activity is likely to dampen inflation over timeEconomic balance remains lopsided, mostly still driven by services activityLabour market remains tightThe persistence in services inflation remains the central element shaping the inflation outlookInflation could turn out higher than anticipated

Prior 52.5Manufacturing PMI 52.5 vs 52.1 expectedPrior 52.1Composite PMI 53.4 vs 52.9 expectedPrior 52.8 The resilience in the UK economy is certainly commendable and this will ease pressure on the BOE to force rate cuts. But the good news in the report here is that price pressures have also eased on the month. Input cost

Prior was 227KContinuing claims 1.863 vs 1.867m expectedPrior continuing claims 1.864m (revised to 1.859m) This is the report for non-farm payrolls survey week. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 43.2Services PMI 51.4 vs 52.3 expectedPrior 52.5Composite PMI 48.5 vs 49.2 expectedPrior 49.1 German business activity continues to contract in August and the services sector is also starting to weaken further in Q3. The contrast highlights how much of the boost in France owes to the Paris Olympics. In any case, this just reaffirms

Prior 50.1Manufacturing PMI 42.1 vs 44.4 expectedPrior 44.0Composite PMI 52.7 vs 49.1 expectedPrior 49.1 The headline reading is a 27-month high and that lifts the French economy to post its best performance in terms of business activity since March last year. The big caveat here though is that the services sector is largely boosted by

Maybe it’s just leverage. Treasury yields fell on the rout in global equities at the start of the month but they’ve since stayed down even with equities sizzling. Some of that is surely a picture of inflation that’s placid but that’s still tough to square. Maybe the simple answer is the best one: People are

Reuters with the snippet from CBA: We favour a 25 bp cut because the U.S. economy is still in good shape50 bp cuts are usually reserved for situations where the economic outlook is under threat Powell speaks on Friday This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Korea leaves its base rate unchanged for a 13th straight meeting at 3.5%38 of 40 analysts surveyed tipped unchanged Forecasts: 2024 growth at 2.4% (vs 2.5% seen in May)2024 inflation at 2.5%2025 growth at 2.1% (vs 2.1% seen in May)Sees 2025 inflation at 2.1% Analyst expectations centre on the October 11 Bank of

Its been light on news and data, and yen movement, in Japan so far today. USD/JPY had wild swings again on Wednesday, but its calm here this morning in a subdued range. Stay tuned! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Jibun Bank S&P Global PMI Flash / Preliminary for August 2024 for Japan Manufacturing PMI 49.5 prior 49.1 Services 54.0 prior 53.7 Composite 53.0 prior 52.5 Commentary from the report, in summary: Business Activity: Continued solid expansion in Japanese private sector firms in August 2024.Growth Drivers: Services sector activity accelerated; manufacturing output returned to growth

Friday is shaping up as a big day. From Japan will be July CPI data and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda. From the US will be Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaking at Jackson Hole. – Re Japan’s CPI: due on August 238.30am Tokyo time2330 GMT on August 221930 US Eastern time on August 22 The

In times of economic uncertainty and market volatility, investors often find themselves immersed in treacherous waters. For some traders, this brings opportunity, and others peril. Join renowned trading experts, educators, and traders from around the world who will be exploring this trend at the upcoming Finance Magnates Pacific Summit (FMPS). After months of anticipation, FMPS

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The FOMC meeting on July 31 marked the first time since ending its tightening stance that Fed Chair Powell explicitly put a rate cut on the table for the next meeting. That led to a 10 bps drop in 2s on that day. Vast majority said it would likely be appropriate to cut if data

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. However, given the overarching theme in markets this week i.e. dollar weakness, the expiries for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level may not matter too much. The pair is looking to secure a breakout as noted here, and that is the

Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities strategists suggest in a research note that the dollar might drop below 140 yen by the end of 2025. Citing the interest-rate difference between the US and Japan as likely to shrink further predicts that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates to a range of 3.75% to 4% by

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.1% It’s been a bit of a theme this week that most of the action tends to only come in US trading. And with the US weekly jobless claims and PMI data to come, I’d wager it to be the same today as well. S&P 500 futures are flat

In its statement the Bank dropped the phrase ‘sufficient period of time’ in saying it will maintain a restrictive policy stance. Giving a clue that cuts are on the horizon. but not today. The South Korean economy has continued divergence between domestic demand and exports.Growth will be affected by the IT industry and recovery in

Canadian rail transport could be halted as soon as tomorrow. There are two rail lines crossing Canada — CN and CP — and they handle virtually all freight in the country. Never before have both been in line to strike at the same time but talks have been ongoing since 2023 and now the companies

UBS analysts are looking for he S&P 500 to reach 5,900 by year-end and 6,200 by June 2025. Reasoning (in summary): Federal Reserve officials are confident that rate cuts may soon be appropriateAt Jackson Hole Fed Chair Powell is expected to provide guidance on the Fed’s future actions as it moves away from its restrictive

Apart from having Powell’s time locked in, we have nothing else from the the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Economic Policy Symposium, Aug. 22-24 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The full agenda will be available on Thursday, August 22 at 8 p.m. US Eastern time. That’s 0000 GMT. Here’s the blurb for the event:

Reider citing the US government report, from the Bureau of Labour Statistics showing annual preliminary benchmark revisions in payrolls came in at -818k since March 2023. ICYM the numbers: Non-farm payrolls benchmark revisions -818K Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Non-farm payrolls revisions cut 818,000 jobs ps. Ask me for tips on how to get the

It’s certainly one step at a time for EUR/USD this week with the pair having posted four straight days of gains coming into today. At first, it was about holding a break above 1.1000. Then, it was about challenging the December highs of 1.1123-39. Now, the pair might look even further towards its 2023 high

Japan will release July inflation data on Friday (tomorrow)USD/JPY to fall below 140 by the end of the year (MUFG)Bank of Korea Gov Rhee says inflation conditions are appropriate for a rate cutHere’s when we’ll get the full agenda of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposiumBank of Korea hints at rate cuts to comeCommonwealth Bank of

Bank of Korea Governor Rhee: inflation conditions are appropriate for a rate cut today’s on hold policy decision was unanimousrising financial stability risks warranted the decision to keep rates on hold today Growth forecast cut was due to technical reason and does not signal worsening of growth sentimentWill need to coordinate with govt to bring

Sheesh. There are 74 days until the US presidential election. Maybe its just me, but that seems a long, long time where anything could happen. Anyway, Goldman Sachs economists have tipped US Vice President Harris to win. They say the most likely outcome is Harris Prez, with a divided government. GS cite her current lead

Goldman Sachs taregt 1.16 iin GBP/CHF, with a stop at 1.10 Most importantly in our view, the SNB has reported that it intervened to the tune of CHF 0.3bn in Q1. We find that notable because it demonstrates the SNB’s fairly active currency policy, and it reveals that the Bank is more willing to “fine

TD is wary of gold, saying that their data on macro positioning data in gold appears to be flashing warning signs. model suggests gold positioning is statistically consistent with 370bps of Fed rate cuts, a fairly extreme level Commodity trading advisors (CTAs) are “max long” gold, and positioning in Shanghai has reverted to record highsdearth

The small setback in US equities yesterday was met with a fresh wave of buying today, leading to the ninth day of gains in ten. S&P 500 +0.4%Nasdaq Comp +0.6%DJIA +0.1%Russell 2000 +1.2%Toronto TSX Comp +0.3% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will testify in Japan’s parliament on Friday. I posted yesterday that this is creating some wariness: HSBC says this poses a risk for the yen, saying “any dovish cues” from Ueda could “work against the JPY”. HSBC cite remarks from Deputy Governor Uchida earlier this month., see that link above

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

A local media report in Australia on Deloitte survey of 84 chief financial officers from Australia’s top 200 companies: private sector has entered an external hiring freeze 100,000 extra unemployed expected in the next 12 months unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.5% The piece cites the ‘Sahm rule”: the indicator takes the average of

Preliminary Judo Bank S&P Australian Manufacturing PMI 48.7 prior 47.5 Services 52.2 prior 50.4 Composite 51.4 prior 49.9 The Australian Flash PMI shows improved activity, rising costs in August Composite output index up, services sector jumps, manufacturing still weakEconomy expanding in Q3, labour demand risingService sector input prices hit highest level since March 2023Final prices

This is the data, ICYMI: Non-farm payrolls benchmark revisions -818K Bloomberg (gated) with the info: At least three banks managed to obtain key payroll numbers Wednesday while the rest of Wall Street was kept waiting for a half-hour by a government delayAfter the Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to post its revisions to the monthly

The dollar is one one of its worst stretches in years as steady selling sends it to the lows of the year on many fronts. Since the FOMC Minutes, the dollar is down rough 15 pips across the board as the comments in the report suggest a strong consensus on cutting rates. Dollar selling has

Robert F. Kennedy Jr will make a speech in Phoenix on Friday morning, according to his campaign. There is no detail about what he will speak about but his campaign said he will ‘address the nation’. On Tuesday, his running mate said the campaign is considering whether to ‘join forces’ with Trump, who is also

Bond bulls are happy, stock market bulls are happy and gold bugs are dancing in the streets. Everything is rallying right now as the market prices in a good economy, rate cuts and immaculate disinflation. Meanwhile, oil bulls haven’t been invited to the party. Crude tried to stage a rally and was up nearly $1

The release of the US benchmark revisions to employment for the year ending in March were something of a mess and the market clearly doesn’t know what to do with it. There was an odd spike in USD/JPY when the numbers should have been released, followed by all kinds of rumours before the -818K number

Target raised its full-year profit forecast and reported its first rise in quarterly comp sales in a year, leading to a nearly 15% jump in shares. The moves underscore what Walmart said last week — that the consumer is fine. Shares hit a four-month high as the company said discounts lured shoppers and boosted its

US 20-year bonds are for sale today and the auction comes at a time when investors have been particularly bullish on duration. The most recent sale of 20s was at 4.46% and we will surely crack that with the on-the-run issue trading at 4.16%. Twenty-year bonds do offer some value with 30s at 4.06% but

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) technical indicator features an assortment of applications. Developed by Gerald Appel, the MACD indicator has been used extensively for more than 40 years and remains a household name among technical analysts. The MACD is a customisable indicator primarily used to recognise momentum shifts, identify trend and trend reversal signals,

We’re getting the point where we need to really zoom out to paint a picture of the foreign exchange market. A great example is in cable, where the daily chart illustrates that we’re only 60 pips away from the July 2023 high. If that breaks, then the weekly chart highlights minimal resistance up to the

Prior was 4.466%Bid to cover at 2.54 vs 2.68 prior Bonds were bid ahead of the sale but there was a small concession in the 15 minutes beforehand. That put the market in a good spot as there is no real surprise here. In the bigger picture though, it shows real demand at yields much

Even though the lack of headlines in the last two days were befitting of a summer lull, there was some decent action in markets. But today, that seems to be absent with broader markets also struggling for any conviction. US futures are flat while bond yields are also little changed on the day. That isn’t

Headlines: USD/JPY nudges back above 146.00 mark in back and forth trading todayWhat are the main events for today?BOJ expected to raise rates again by the end of this year – pollJapan observes record number of foreign visitors in JulyUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 16 August -10.1% vs +16.8% prior Markets: CAD leads, JPY lags

Unveiling Market Dynamics: Today’s Stock Heatmap Analysis Monday’s stock market offered a vibrant tableau of sector performance as evidenced in the latest heatmap snapshots. Tech juggernauts like Nvidia and Apple saw modest changes, indicating a cautious sentiment among traders, while consumer cyclical stocks like Amazon rallied, showcasing sector resilience. 🔍 Detailed Sector Overview Technology –

Economists widely estimated that US non-farm payrolls would be revised lower from the prior numbers showing 2.9 million jobs added in the year ending in March, or 242,000 per month. Goldman Sachs had floated a range of 600K-1M job losses. One critical caveat is that these revisions are based on a reconciliation with initial jobless

Labor market continues to loosen, come into better balanceUnemployment rate is up but still historically lowWage gains remain above pace consistent with our goalShould incoming data show inflation is moving sustainably toward target, it will become appropriate to gradually lower rates to avoid becoming overly restrictiveWill remain cautious in my approach to any change in

While we had a data release from Japan earlier the yen doesn’t need much to move around. Japan – July exports +10.3% y/y (expected +11.4%) & imports +16.6% y/y (expected +14.9%) The volatility recently continued today, albeit in a reduced range than we are accustomed to: The reverberations of the Bank of Japan rate hike,

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.3%German DAX +0.5%Francis CAC 40 +0.5%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.1%Spain’s IBEX +0.2%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.7% Yesterday halted a nice winning streak but the bulls were back in charge today: This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s tough to find consistent signals on the economy at the moment. There are certainly signs of weakening in things like housing and rate-sensitive areas like autos but the retail good sector looks strong, as highlighted by Walmart last week. This week’s market is just as confusing. Equities are ripping and the market is acting

Australia approved plans for a massive solar and battery farm that would export energy to Singapore announced environmental approvals for the US$24 billion SunCable project in Australia’s remote northproject will include an array of panels, batteries and, eventually, a cable linking Australia with Singaporehoped that energy production will begin in 2030project will provide four gigawatts

The US BLS was scheduled to publish benchmark revisions to non-farm payrolls at 10 am ET here: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm That hasn’t updated but we’re watching closely. It’s rare to have a hiccup in the release schedule so it’s not clear what’s going on. However a separate report that covers the same timeline was released — the

The bleed lower in the US dollar has extended and the euro is taking full advantage. It’s just edged above the December 2023 high of 1.1139 and is now trading at the highest since July 2023. The latest move is almost entirely driven by the dollar side of the equation as it sinks across the

While exports did not jump by as much as expected they grew much faster than in June. helped by a weak yen and a pickup in the auto sectorand encouraging sign of sustained economic recoveryoffset though by shipment volumes falling 5.2% y/y, the sixth consecutive month of declines Imports beat. Exports to: China +7.2% y/ythe

Prior +16.8%Market index 225.8 vs 251.3 priorPurchase index 130.6 vs 137.7 priorRefinance index 754.4 vs 889.3 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.50% vs 6.54% prior After the surge in mortgage applications in the week before that, we are seeing things moderate back last week. The surge in activity in the week before owes much to the sharp

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to remain under pressure amid positive risk sentiment and the imminent rate cuts from the Fed which should help global growth. These are generally bearish drivers for the greenback. In fact, the appreciation of the GBP has been mostly driven by the US Dollar side of the equation. The market

Yesterday broke an 8-day rally in the S&P 500 but futures are pointing to a 0.2% rebound today. A notable chart I highlighted yesterday was an 8-day rally in a rebound from a sharp selloff in the index in 2023. After a small setback in mid-November, it continued higher through year end. Momentum can be

Prior was +1357K Details: Gasoline -1606K vs -933K expectedDistillates -3312K vs -215K expectedRefinery utilization +0.8% vs +0.3% expectedProduction mbpd 13.4mbpd vs 13.3mbpd prior API data late yesterday showed: Crude +347KGasoline -1043KDistillates -2247K These numbers are bullish at the margin and oil was already bouncing back today after four days of losses. This article was written

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to remain under pressure amid positive risk sentiment and the imminent rate cuts from the Fed which should help global growth. These are generally bearish drivers for the greenback. In fact, the appreciation of the EUR has been mostly driven by the US Dollar side of the equation. The ECB

Prior was 0.0%Prices y/y +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y Raw materials price index: m/m % vs -1.4% priory/y % vs +7.5% prior I noted yesterday how we’re entering a period with oil prices down $10-$20 y/y. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday’s Canada CPI was light and since it was already released, I wouldn’t expect any market reaction from today’s PPI and raw materials price index. The main event of the day comes at 10 am ET (1400 GMT) with BLS payrolls revisions for the year ending in March. I wrote a preview of it yesterday.

It’s going to be another boring day on the data front as the only notable release will be the FOMC Minutes later in the day. It’s not a market-moving event as it’s three weeks old news and the market is waiting for the Flash PMIs due tomorrow and Fed Chair Powell speech on Friday. This

The bounce comes as buyers look to be holding at the 145.00 mark, at least for the time being. That being said, even with the push back above 146.00, it doesn’t mean much from a technical perspective. Looking at the near-term chart, sellers are still well in control. That as price action rests below both

Bloomberg is gated, in brief from the interview with Katsunobu Kato, a potential candidate for the country’s next prime minister: Japan should continue to aim for a world where interest rates and prices keep moving “It’s clear that we have to head in this direction” where prices and rates aren’t stagnantcaution is still needed for

Via the RBNZ: Seasonally adjusted total billings in New Zealand remained at $4.3 billion in July, -0.4% m/m-3.% y/y Unadjusted total credit card advances outstanding decreased to $6.0 billion in July-24. After seasonal adjustment, total advances outstanding were $6.1 billion, 1.2% lower than in July-23. Total credit limits were $21.0 billion (not seasonally adjusted) in

That’s an unusual thing for a central banker to say but the market is pricing in a 93% chance of a cut on Sept 12. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Via Bloomberg overnight was the report on moves to further prop up, or try to, China’s troubled property sector. While Bloomberg is gated, the basic gist is that China is considering a new strategy to support its struggling real estate market by allowing local governments to use special bonds to purchase unsold homes. Such bonds

July 30 – 31 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes are due on Wednesday 21 August 2024. Of more focus this week, of course, is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. At the July meeting the FOMC kept the Federal Funds rate unchanged between 5.25%-5.50%, a widely expected

A note from JP Morgan argues that the recent volatility spike has dealt a major blow to the FX carry trade, which had been the dominant FX strategy over the past 12-18 months. JPM point to unwinding of carry trades, first triggered by the MXN sell-off post-elections and then accelerated by the sharp JPY rally,

Trading in financial markets is often perceived as a high-stakes game of numbers, charts, and quick decisions. However, if you look closer, trading is much more than just buying low and selling high, it’s an intricate art that parallels the disciplines, strategies, and mentalities found in sports. The art of trading will be of particular

The number of foreign visitors for business and leisure was 3.29 million last month, surpassing the previous record in June of 3.14 million. The yen currency has strengthened considerably in the last month but that might not put off travelers immediately. That considering some travel plans are made months in advance. This article was written

31 of 54 (57%) of economists see the BOJ raising rates again by year-end14 of 22 (64%) of economists forecast the BOJ to raise rates in December8 of 22 economists (36%) forecast the BOJ to raise rates in October The median prediction for interest rate is to end the year at 0.50%, which is 25

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to remain under pressure amid positive risk sentiment and the imminent rate cuts from the Fed which should help global growth. These are generally bearish drivers for the greenback. In fact, the recent strong appreciation of the NZD has been mostly driven by the US Dollar side of the equation.

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to remain under pressure amid positive risk sentiment and the imminent rate cuts from the Fed which should help global growth. These are generally bearish drivers for the greenback. In fact, the appreciation of the AUD has been mostly driven by the US Dollar side of the equation, although it

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures +0.1% There’s not much in it with S&P 500 futures also seen up just 0.1%. US indices snapped a run of eight straight days of gains yesterday but the decline was marginal at worst. It doesn’t take away whatsoever from the stunning rebound since all the panic from 5

JP Morgan in Australia update on the NZD after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut. Bottom line is that most NZD weakness related to the RBNZ’s recent rate cut may have run its course. Notes that NZD has been resilient since the cut: improving global investor sentiment centred on expectations of a determined

Even on a losing day US stocks were impressive. Some decent sell orders hit the market midway through the day and it briefly looked like stocks could roll over. However the market steadied itself and rebounded to only small declines, at least outside of the Russell. S&P 500 -0.2%Nasdaq Comp -0.3%DJIA -0.2%Russell 2000 -1.0%Toronto TSX

China Automobile Manufacturers Association: firmly opposes EU Commissions final draft on high tariffs on Chinese made electric vehicleshopes EU will adhere to dialogue and cooperation with China, maintain fair non-discriminatory market environmenttariff decision brings enormous risks and uncertainty for Chinese firms’ operations and investment in EU China has overcapacity across a range of manufactured goods,

Adam posted on this on Tuesday: Eyes on Wednesday’s non-farm payrolls benchmark revisions Adam included the estimate from Goldman Sachs of between 600K and 1mn jobs to be cut from the data. And JP Morgan of 360K jobs. Economists will argue about this data, all the caveats, but the concern is that if the revision

Fundamental Overview After the breakout of the 2480 resistance, gold eventually extended the gains into the 2532 level as the momentum buyers piled in. In the big picture, gold should remain supported as real yields fall as we head into the Fed’s easing cycle, but in the short-term strong US data might provide pullbacks along

The Japanese yen remains a little swingy but less so than in the days before at least. The rest of the major currencies bloc is trapped in narrow ranges as we look to European trading later. So far on the day, the changes are light as seen with dollar pairs below. In general, the dollar

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB +0.3% Once again, it’s not leaving much to work with for now. And we’ll likely have to wait until US trading again for the action to pick up. S&P 500 futures are also little changed, up just 0.1% currently. This article was

Potential candidate for Japan PM supports BOJ continuing to hike ratesNew Zealand data – July card spending -3.8% y/y (prior -3.1%)China automaker lobby warns of enormous risks and uncertainty from EU tariffs on EVsUS non farm payrolls revisions data due Wednesday – could wipe off 1mn jobsFederal Open Market Committee (FOMC) July meeting minutes will

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -2.7 mn barrelsDistillates -0.2 mn bblsGasoline -0.9 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

I find it tough to get excited about benchmark revisions but tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls re-think is getting plenty of attention. Economists at Goldman Sachs think between 600,000 and 1 million jobs could be shed in the revision, raising new questions about the strength of the jobs market just ahead of Jackson Hole. The Bureau of

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level. There has been expiries here all through the week and the ones today will still have some slight influence on price action. For one, it could act as a bit of an

You would think that stock market bulls would throw in the towel today as markets turned south. The S&P 500 is riding a five-day winning streak, so there would be no shame in taking some profit or not buying the smallest dip. But the bulls have stepped in again. The S&P 500 has mostly erased

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Dr Hans Kluge from the World Health Organization says that Mpox is “not the new Covid”, because authorities clearly know how to control its spread. The BBC has the report if you want to read it. It adds: There is still a lot to learn about the new variant, experts say, but it may be

Justin and I will be in Sydney next week for the Finance Magnates Pacific Summit. Its happening Tuesday 27 August to Thursday 29 August! Both of us were lucky enough to get to speak with Louise Bedford from Talking Trading about the summit. Louise will be there too, and her presentation alone will be worth

Canada July CPI 2.5% versus 2.5% expectedFed’s Bowman: Some recent further progress on lowering inflation. Remain cautious on cutsUS job seekers rise to highest since 2014 in NY Fed surveyPhilly Fed non-manufacturing employment index falls to the lowest since the pandemicNew Zealand GDT price index +5.5%Canada July new housing price index +0.2% vs -0.2% prior

From the report: The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index ticked back up to +0.06%.The last nine months has seen the Index growth rate hover in the –0.3 to +0.2% range, a clear improvement on the twelve months prior which saw much weaker reads in the –0.5 to –1% range. However,

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will speak in Japan’s parliament on Friday. HSBC says this poses a risk for the yen, saying “any dovish cues” from Ueda could “work against the JPY”. HSBC refer to yen-dovish remarks from Deputy Governor Uchida a couple of weeks back: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: BOJ’s Uchida triggered a

Economist Ed Yardeni wrote an opinion piece for Dow Jones news (via Market Watch). Here is a brief summary of the key points from the article: The BLS household survey showed 1.54 million U.S. workers were impacted by weather in July, up from 280,000 in June. The drop in unemployment claims after Hurricane Beryl hit

Bank of America notes that European investors, who were previously driving the USD rally earlier in 2024, have now shifted to short USD positions. This shift coincides with a recent EUR/USD breakout above 1.10. Key Points: Shift in European Investor Behavior: Earlier in 2024, the USD rally was significantly driven by demand from investors outside

There is not much here to shift around FX too much. I expect the swinging yen to keep on … swinging. It doesn’t need outside catalysts right now. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

WTI crude oil futures settled 33-cents lower to $74.04 after falling as low as $73.50. It’s the third day of losses and fifth in the past six days and also runs counter to growing optimism about the US and global economy, particularly in stock markets. Then again, it’s tough to say which is the chicken

The Philly Fed released its latest non-manufacturing survey earlier today and most of the numbers weren’t headline grabbing. The main index was strong with a rise to +8.3 from -10.0 but there was a sharp break lower in full-time employment, particularly in firms that were planning to cut full time employment. The drop raises some

China’s benchmark lending rates remained unchanged in August – recapFederal Reserve speakers Tuesday include Bostic (on payments) and Barr (on cybersecurity)AUD – weekly survey shows inflation expectations are at a 30-month lowRBA minutes: Possible cash rate will stay steady for an extended periodPBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1325 (vs. estimate at 7.1317)People’s Bank

Reports on a note from Goldman Sachs on Monday (US time) on the prospects for US equities to rally over the next four weeks: pain trade for equities is highercite trend-following rule-based systematic funds have shifted from $450 billion long in July to $250 billion long currently and are in the process of re-leveragingand, further,

Credit Agricole sees potential for a rally in USD/JPY this week, driven by market reactions to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at Jackson Hole, as investors position around US-Japan rate differentials. Key Points: Current Market Positioning: Investors are currently betting on a further narrowing of the US-Japan rates differential, anticipating a dovish message from

The pound is higher for the fourth straight day today and reached a high of 1.3052. That’s the best level since July 2023 as it narrowly rose above the July 2024 high of 1.3044. It’s since pulled back below that figure but not by much. Cable has climbed in 8 of the past 9 trading

One way to look at the drop in Treasury yields is that it’s signalling trouble in the US economy but with stocks working on an 8-day winning streak, that’s tough to square. Maybe the answer is more-simple: The market sees no recession but steady rate cuts and a return to the low-inflation/cheap-money era. That’s a

Fed Chair Powell’s annual Jackson Hole remarks have become must-watch events for traders, often sparking significant market moves. Goldman Sachs is out with a quick rundown of the past 6 years and how it affected the front end of the bond market (the dollar generally follows front-end yields). Key takeaways: Powell’s tone has swung from

Shares of home-improvement store Lowe’s initially fell more than 1% after the company cut its annual forecast but have since rebounded and are trading higher by 1%. Shares of Home Depot reacted similarly this month after cutting guidance. The company now sees a 3.5-4% drop in comp sales this year compared to 2-3% previously. It’s

The latest New Zealand dairy auction results are out and prices rose 5.5% to $3920/MT. Whole milk powder prices rose 7.2%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

A spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard in Iran today laid out an uncertain timeline for an attack on Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran. “Time is on our side and it’s possible that the waiting period for this response will be long,” Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Spokesman Ali

The euro continues to march higher as it ticked above 1.11 for the first time since late December. Given that December move was something of a low-liquidity squeeze, you have to go back to July 2023 to see these levels. Unfortunately, this is more of a US dollar story than a positive narrative on anything

Goldman Sachs favors a tactical approach to buying EUR/USD on dips, with a focus on broader USD weakness driving the pair higher despite a lack of strong economic support for the euro. Key Points: Tactical Buy Levels: Traders are looking to add to EUR/USD positions on dips back towards 1.1030, with a target of reaching

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior +2.5%Core CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelimPrior +2.9% No changes to the initial estimates and this just keeps a September rate cut in play for the ECB after the pause in July. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 futures are 1 point higher today and Nasdaq futures are also higher. Yesterday, they capped of an eight-day rally that’s added about 8%. The last time the S&P 500 climbed for eight days in a row was November 2023. That was capped by a decent decline on the ninth day and then a

Overview of Today’s Stock Market Today’s stock market presents a complex tapestry, characterized by significant divergences across different sectors. A closer look at the stock market heatmap reveals nuanced performances, with notable dynamics in the technology and healthcare sectors overshadowing mixed sentiments elsewhere. 🔍 Sector Analysis Technology: It’s a mixed bag in the technology sector

Looking at the breakdown, surpluses were recorded for goods (€39 billion), primary income (€14 billion) and services (€12 billion). These were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€14 billion). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The STOXX 600 was riding in a five-day winning streak and traded higher at times today but couldn’t hang on. Stoxx 600 -0.5%German DAX -0.4%Francis CAC 40 -0.3%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.9%Spain’s IBEX -0.2%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.5% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior CHF 6.18 billion; revised to CHF 6.12 billion The Swiss trade surplus narrowed in July as exports fell by 0.5% while imports expanded by 6.1% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Treasury market continues to sniff out pain and rate cuts in the US economy and that’s spilling into USD/JPY. The pair fell 25 pips in a quick move down to 145.75 after breaking 146.00. Despite the turnaround in risk sentiment, US 2s remain near the low yields of the year and are treatening a

The index increased by 0.1% year over year in JulyPrices were up in 10 of the 27 census metropolitan areasThey were unchanged in 13 and declined in the remaining 4 largest month-over-month increases in July were recorded in Calgary, Edmonton, Kelowna and ReginaThe largest monthly price declines in new home prices in July were recorded

The New York Fed yesterday released its quarterly survey of the employment market and there was a notable softening. Job seekers jump to 28.4% in July 2024, highest since March 2014The increase was most pronounced among respondents older than age 45, those without a college degree, and those with an annual household income less than

It’s hard to find a more cynical place than the financial markets. Every time there is a catastrophe somewhere in the world, investors rush to look for opportunities to make money. This was the case after the 9/11 attacks in the United States, the Fukushima catastrophe, the Arab Spring, and, of course, the wars between

The dollar is in a sluggish spot, as it comes under renewed pressure to start trading this week. EUR/USD broke out to its highest since December, now eyeing the highs then at 1.1123-39. Meanwhile, AUD/USD also extended its upside run to the highest in a month above the 0.6700 mark. USD/JPY remains a focus as

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to remain under pressure amid positive risk sentiment and the imminent rate cuts from the Fed which should help global growth. These are generally bearish drivers for the greenback. In fact, the recent appreciation of the CAD has been mostly driven by the US Dollar side of the equation. The

Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.1%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% but overall, there isn’t too much drive in the risk mood on the day. That isn’t giving much for broader markets to work with either as such. A typical summer’s day. This article was written by

Gold is a timeless, resilient precious metal boasting a rich and colourful history, one that societies have coveted for centuries. Primarily mined using underground tunnels or open pits, China remains the leading gold producer in the world, closely followed by Russia and Australia. Given its value and finite nature, gold remains among the most popular

China has stopped publishing daily data on foreign fund flows into its stock market publishing of daily data on foreign fund flows into its stock market stopped on Mondaythe move is seen as an attempt to prop up sentiment amid ongoing outflows, at at the very least an effort to reduce volatility from high-frequency dataYear-to-date

The Canadian dollar is riding the wave of broad US dollar weakness at the moment in a move to 1.3610 but it will have its own reasons to move at the bottom of the hour. That’s when the July CPI report will be released. Expectations are for y/y inflation to continue to fall, this time

Bank of America expects the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium to be a pivotal moment for US rates, with Fed Chair Powell likely signaling a future rate cut while maintaining flexibility. The risks, however, lean toward a more hawkish tone, potentially strengthening the USD. Key Points: Jackson Hole Focus: The symposium is expected to be a

European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn, governor of the Finnish central bank There are no clear signs of a pick-up in the manufacturing sector.Industrial production may not be as temporary as assumed.The recent increase in negative growth risks in the Euro area has reinforced the case for a rate cut at the next

Prior was +2.7%CPI m/m +0.4% vs +0.4% expectedPrior m/m -0.1% Core measures CPI Bank of Canada core y/y 1.7% vs 1.9% priorCPI Bank of Canada core m/m +0.3% versus -0.1% priorCore CPI m/m SA +0.1% vs +0.1% priorMedian 2.4% versus 2.6% priorTrim 2.7% versus 2.9% priorCommon 2.2% versus 2.3% prior USD/CAD was trading at 1.3602

The precious metal caught an upside break at the end of last week, pushing past its previous triple-top pattern. That culminated in a break to fresh record highs above $2,500. And that is where we are seeing price continue to hold so far this week. There was a bit of a challenge yesterday but buyers

Will the Jackson Hole event be bearish for stocks?Bundesbank says wage growth has slowed down in Q2Eurozone July final CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y prelimDollar on troubled shores so far this weekEurozone June current account balance €51.0 billion vs €36.7 billion priorEuropean equities open marginally higher to kick start the dayWhat are the main events

The European session today is once again empty on the data front. We will just get the Final Eurozone CPI report, which is not a market moving release as the market moves on fresh news. In the American session, the main highlight will be the Canadian CPI report although it’s unlikely to change much in

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level. The pair also has a large set of expiries at 1.1000 but that should not factor much into play given the dollar weakness so far this week. As such, the ones at

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 last Thursday managed to break above a key resistance zone following strong US Jobless Claims and Retail Sales data. The market continues to fade the “growth scare” we got at the beginning of August and it’s now looking forward to the Fed’s rate cuts. In fact, the rate cuts into

The People’s Bank of China left its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged, as was expected. 1-year LPR at 3.35% 5-year LPR at 3.85% Both were lowered by 10bp in July. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages. — The reference

I’ve been seeing many posts about the stock market reaction to the last two Powell’s speeches at the Jackson Hole Symposium. While it’s true that the market didn’t perform well in the following couple of months, the context today is much different. In 2022, it goes without saying why it was different. The Fed was

Fed’s Kashkari: It is appropriate to have debate on whether to cut rates in SeptemberFed’s Waller doesn’t comment on economy or monetary policyGold climbs back above $2500. What’s next and what to watch forOil falls for fourth time in five trading days. What’s next Markets: Gold down $4 to $2503US 10-year yields down 2 bps

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the yen strengthened across the board in the Asian session without any clear catalyst. It looks like it was more of a technical move as the price broke through a key trendline rather than something fundamental. On the other side, there might be some pre-positioning into a dovish Powell speech on Friday

The German central bank noted that negotiated wage growth in Q2 was seen at 3.1%, as opposed to the 6.2% reading in Q1. However, they note that they expect a “temporary rise” in German inflation towards the end of the year due to base effects. That just means that the economic recovery will be delayed

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Index survey includes a question on inflation expectations: For this week they dropped to a a 30-month low of 4.7% down from 5.1% last weekwhile the 4 week moving average is down 0.1 to 5.0% ANZ analysis: Notably, inflation expectations fell to 4.7 per cent, their lowest level since

Fundamental Overview Copper has been on a sustained downtrend since reaching its peak in May. More recently we’ve been seeing some life coming back into the market with an increase in the bullish momentum last week as the mining giant BHP said on last Tuesday that it had started removing workers on strike at its

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.2% This follows from the gains yesterday but the overall mood today remains more tentative once again. That at least in the early stages. US futures are also flattish, so that’s not leaving much for market players to work with at the moment. This article was written by Justin

These don’t look to be of too much interest to traders, but perhaps we’ll get something pertinent in any Q&A? 1735 GMT / 1335 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in a fireside chat before the hybrid “Innovating for Inclusion” Payment Inclusion Forum at the Federal Reserve Bank of

Reserve Bank of Australia August meeting minutes The Reserve Bank of Australia considered a case to raise rates but decided that a steady outcome better balanced the risks.The RBA mentioned that the cash rate might have to stay steady for an “extended period.”The RBA members agreed it is unlikely that rates would be cut in

It was another impressive day for US equities. Futures were flat early today but a steady trickle of bids was the story throughout the day followed by a flash of buying late. S&P 500 +1.0%Nasdaq Comp +1.4%DJIA +0.6%Russell 2000 +0.9%Toronto TSX Comp +0.2% These are the eighth consecutive gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Prior +0.2% Looking at the breakdown, there were increases in the price for intermediate goods (+0.2%) and energy (+0.5%). Besides that, the price for capital goods and durable consumer goods were flat on the month. Meanwhile, the price for consumer goods in general fell by 0.1% in July. If you strip out energy, producer prices

Last month the People’s Bank of China were in a rate cutting mood: cut repo rates on July 22: PBoC announces cut to 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.70% from 1.80%at the same time the Bank lowered collateral requirements for medium term lending facility loans On the same day they cut LPRs: China cuts 1

Major currencies might not be too active so far today but they are slowly leaning in the direction of a softer dollar. The greenback rebounded after the US retail sales data last week. However, that quickly faltered on Friday and the selling has carried over to the new week. Here are some key happenings in

Canada is set to release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) update for July on Tuesday: Due at 0830 Eastern time The m/m expected is higher while the y/y is a touch lower. There will be focus on ‘core’ rates, that have accelerated in the past two months. What does it mean for the Bank of

Earlier: People’s Bank of China leaves Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged ICYMI: China’s benchmark lending rates remained unchanged in August both 1 year and 5 year LPRs were cut by 10 basis points in Julyone-year loan prime rate stayed at 3.35%the five-year rate was maintained at 3.85% Last month China’s central bank confirmed several reforms

This as confirmed by Trump himself here: “Comrade Kamala Harris has just informed us that she will NOT do the FoxNews Debate on September 4th. I am not surprised by this development because I feel that she knows it is very difficult, at best, for her to defend her record setting Flip-Flopping on absolutely everything

Exports 6.15bn Prior 6.04bn Imports 7.11bn prior 5.45bn NZD/USD little changed on the data: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Oil squeezed higher last Monday on indications of extremely crowded positions on the short side. That surely left shorts feeling the pain in what was the fourth straight day of gains. But it’s come undone quickly as oil bears continue to point to soft Chinese demand as a catalyst for falling prices. WTI is down

Given the slump in the US dollar there are some thoughts about that the People’s Bank of China reference rate setting for the yuan might have to invert. For many, many months the PBoC have set the USD/CNY reference rate well below the prevailing market rate in order to support the yuan. The gap between

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY traded to early highs around 146.85 before dumping to 145.85 lows. There hasn’t been fresh news nor data from Japan, yen crosses don’t need any of that to persist in volatility. USD/JPY is back on approach to its earlier highs as I update. The background to all this the Bank of Japan eyeing further

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) forecast via Reuters polling: 101 analysts polled55 forecast federal funds rate cuts by 25 basis points in September, November and December34 predict two rate cuts this year1 respondent forecast only one rate cut11 have tipped cuts by 100bps or more in the upcoming three meetings Says Barclays: “The basis for

Yen volatility is set to continue again today. USD/JPY has dropped 40 points or so in past minutes. There are no fresh catalysts. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A bit of a rehash from a JP Morgna note on Monday, reiterating bullishness, citing recent economic data, earnings reports, the prospect of a more accommodating Federal Reserve. upside appears to be more muted than when we adopted this stance earlier this yearbut there remains material upside JPM note risks: Japan’s inflation datageopolitical developments that

I posted on the PBoC and RBA yesterday. ICYMI … Its rate-setting day from the People’s Bank of China and we will also get the minutes from the most recent Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. The PBoC cut rates in July, surprising some in the market. People’s Bank of China cut repo rates on July

MUFG highlight both the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes (July 31 meeting) due on Wednesday 1800 GMT / 1400 US Eastern time And Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaking at Jackson Hole on Firday 1400 GMT / 1000 US Eastern time MUFG flag the risk of lower US yields if the FOMC/Powel is/are dovish, could

We may soon be talking about the highest levels in the euro since July 2023. I wrote about the euro trade on Friday and why it’s been a quiet winner. “I find it hard to chase anything in Europe but there are a nice series of higher lows and it would be easy enough to

US equities are at the highs of the day across the board and it’s being led by a wide range of names today, including consumer-sensitive American Airlines and Expedia. The Russell 2000 is leading the way with a 0.5% and the Nasdaq isn’t far behind. For the Russell, it continues to chew into the opening

In general, I think politics are wildly overrated a source of investing opportunities, particularly elections. Promises are often made by politicians but rarely fulfilled and in a three-tier system like the US, it’s rare to get enough alignment to craft game-changing policies. At the moment, Kamala Harris is leading Trump 55-45 on PredictIt and she

The Australian dollar has added 50 pips today in the third day of gains. It’s at the highest since July 18 and also at levels that would be the highest since January excluding the June-July ramp. What’s particularly impressive is that AUD is rallying despite all the poor indications from China, including the recent plunge

The thing about this week is that there won’t be as much key risk events on the calendar as last week. And that means market players will not have too much to work with for the time being. Fedspeak is the main thing to be mindful about, as traders digest the key US data from

German DAX futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures -0.2% S&P 500 futures are also fairly sluggish, down 0.1% currently. In other markets, 10-year Treasury yields are down 2.5 bps to 3.867% and USD/JPY is now sinking much lower to a low of 145.20 on the day. It keeps with the move from earlier here, with the dollar

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq finally erased the entire drop from the last ISM Manufacturing PMI as the market faded the “growth scare”. The first catalyst was the good US Jobless Claims on the 8th of August as that quelled the fears on a deteriorating labour market triggered by the weak NFP report. Last week, we

Introduction Today’s stock market presents a mixed landscape with noteworthy movements across technology and energy sectors, along with subtle shifts in consumer cyclical stocks. As we delve into the heatmap, let’s explore these trends, decipher sector performances, and discuss strategic moves for investors. Sector Overview Technology Sector: A mixed bag here with minor declines in

The Forex market is an international marketplace where, unlike the conventional stock markets, various types of currencies are exchanged 24 hours a day across different time zones. Contrary to the traditional stock exchange, Forex is decentralized—it does not bear physical confinement to an exchange. Online is how Forex operates, and it is run by banks,

Headlines: It’s a slower start to the new week so farWhat are the main events for today?Weekly update on interest rates expectationsFed’s Kashkari: It is appropriate to have debate on whether to cut rates in SeptemberSNB total sight deposits w.e. 16 August CHF 464.9 bn vs CHF 463.1 bn prior Markets: JPY leads, USD and

Data last week showed UK core inflation softening a touch: UK July CPI +2.2% vs +2.3% y/y expectedTraders now see BOE decision in September to be a coin flip UBS on what they expect from the Bank of England ahead, in summary: the latest UK inflation print shows the rate is still near the BoE’s

Fed’s Waller does not comment on the economy or monetary policy in his welcoming remarks at the 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance, Washington, D.C. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

MUFG emphasizes that this week’s US yield and USD movements will largely hinge on two critical events: the release of the FOMC minutes from the July 31 meeting and the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, particularly Fed Chair Powell’s speech. Key Points: FOMC Minutes: The FOMC meeting on July 31 marked the first time since ending

Down the elevator and back up the escalator: On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +0.6%Francis CAC +0.8%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.8%Spain’s Ibex +1.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.7% The round trip is nearly completed. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This post on X by @lisaabramowicz1 just crossed my timeline and reminded me of the posts I’ve been seeing right after the events at the start of August. In fact, one of the things people have been pointing to when we got the growth scare was the widening of the US credit spreads. A “credit

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Today the calendar is empty on the data front and the only highlight will be Fed’s Waller speech at 13:15 GMT/09:15 ET. Christopher Waller is a key Fed governor because he’s been a “leading indicator” for changes in Fed’s policy. We already got Fed’s Daly over the weekend saying that the time to consider trimming

I coughed coffee all over my keyboard when I saw this from Adam over the weekend: Next week doesn’t start until Thursday On Tuesday from the Asia time zone we have rate-setting day from the People’s Bank of China and also minutes from the most recent Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. The PBoC cut rates

Japan’s national and Tokyo governments are seeking a 700 billion yen ($4.7 billion) valuation for Tokyo Metro Preparing to list the subway operator as early as October-end Info via Reuters citing three unnamed sources would be Japan’s biggest IPO in roughly six yearsthe two governments own 100% of Tokyo Metromeeting of brokerages planned within a

The breakout in gold is looking increasingly secure. A pullback to $2486 today has been bought and it’s now trading back above $2500. Everyone’s watching China right now. On Friday, a Reuters report indicated fresh quotes for domestic banks. They had halted the quotas earlier, around the time that the PBoC stopped buying. Could the

It’s not just USD/JPY that is on the move so far today. The dollar is also marked lower against other major currencies, with EUR/USD being of particular interest as well. The pair is trading up slightly to 1.1040 after the Friday gains and looks poised to settle on a break to its highest since December

Balance of risks have shifted more towards labour market and away from inflationInflation is making progressBut labour market is showing some concerning signs He’s reiterating what we already have come to know in recent weeks. They’ve been teeing up a rate cut in September and this just contributes to that narrative. We’ll see if Powell

Morningstar is an American financial services firm. From Morningstar chief US economist Preston Caldwell: The CPI report “provides further support for aggressive Fed rate cuts beginning in September.” he sees a 25bps cut to start, which will take Fed Funds to 5.00-5.25%”While the rise in the unemployment rate is flashing alarm signs, other labor market

1315 GMT / 0915 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives opening remarks before the Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance hosted by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Waller tends to be forthright with his views on where policy is heading. I expect him to be a little more

The US dollar is at the lows of the day against the euro, pound and commodity currencies. That’s a continuation of the price action from late last week. The dollar ran higher on retail sales and WMT commentary last week but has slowly retraced (and more). That’s a concerning sign for the dollar bulls as

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

It’s been an uneventful pre-market. There was some slight weakness in the Asian session, but eventually the market recovered everything in the European session and it’s now trading near a key resistance at 5,600. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not a lot changed from late Friday levels: EUR/USD 1.1028USD/JPY 147.65GBP/USD 1.2935USD/CAD 1.3690AUD/USD 0.6665NZD/USD 0.6045 This article was written by

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, gold had a very positive day despite a lack of catalysts, which culminated in a breakout of a key resistance that’s been holding the precious metal in a range for a month. In the big picture, gold should remain supported as real yields fall as we head into the Fed’s easing

The fall today also sees sellers resume near-term control, with a push below its 100 and 200-hour moving averages as well. The former is at 147.67 while the latter is at 147.28. Hence, the drop now back towards near 146.00 sees sellers back in charge of the near-term bias. Going back to the daily chart,

Monday’s calendar is very light, with no significant economic events scheduled. On Tuesday, Canada will release its inflation data and Wednesday will feature the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which could shed more light on the likelihood of seeing a first rate cut in September. Thursday will bring a series of flash manufacturing and

USD/JPY losses accelerate on the day, under 146.70 nowFederal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on MondayFinland central bank governor & ECB governing council member Olli Rehn speaks late MondayJapan’s LDP will hold its leadership election on September 27Japan seeking a 700 billion yen valuation for Tokyo Metro, listing as early as end-OctoberFederal Reserve Chair

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is giving “Welcoming Remarks” at the 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance, Washington, D.C. He’s been a key Fed governor because he’s been a “leading indicator” for changes in Fed’s policy. He might comment on monetary policy but I’m not sure if the markets are going to

I’m hosting a special webinar at 9 am ET (1300 GMT) on ‘7 Common Trading Traps and How to Avoid Them’ It’s an especially notable topic right now given the moves in the yen and equities this month. Register here This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Japanese owner of 7-Eleven has been approached with what would be the largest-ever takeover of a Japanese company. The deal speaks to foreign companies seeking to exploit the depressed yen. In this case, the suitor is Canadian company Couche-Tard, the owner of Circle K convenience stores. The target is Seven & i Holdings Co

A diary note for politics in Japan. It’ll be interesting to get the new PM’s take on Bank of Japan policy. Still a ways off. – Fuji News Network (FNN) with the info. Japan’s parliament. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The weakness n the USD restarted from where we left it last Friday as the market remains in a risk-on mood and looks forward to the coveted Fed’s rate cuts. We don’t have much on the agenda today as there’s just Fed’s Waller speaking at 13:15 GMT/09:15 ET and then we get the Conference Board’s

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 finally erased the entire drop from the last ISM Manufacturing PMI as the market faded the “growth scare”. The first catalyst was the good US Jobless Claims on the 8th of August as that quelled the fears on a deteriorating labour market triggered by the weak NFP report. Last week,

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 95 bps (71% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 66 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 42 bps (69% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 75 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA:

I posted earlier on the lack of any obvious catalyst for the gains in JPY: USD/JPY extending its losses today That’s still the case although I am beginning to see some generic ‘hedge funds now bullish yen’ tweets and what have you. The USD/JPY slide began on Friday and its extended today. USD weakness is

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke in an interview with CBS’ Face the Nation on Sunday: US credit conditions are tight and are getting tighterno certainty the Fed will cut interest rates next month, but not doing so could damage the labour market “When you set a rate high like we have

Domestic sight deposits CHF 457.2 bn vs CHF 455.5 bn prior Swiss sight deposits increased slightly in the past week but nothing too notable. The figure still sits within the range of recent months, so it isn’t anything that jumps out of the page. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Japanese yen is the main mover so far on the day as it extends the bounce back from Friday. USD/JPY is down 0.9% to 146.30 with the greenback holding a little lower across the board as well. The pair is facing a bit of a stern rejection from the 38.2 Fib retracement level of

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6675 level. It isn’t one that is technically significant but it could anchor gains for a bit before rolling off later in the day. The pair is in a breakout mood amid a more

Via Reuters a snippet from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia on Powell speaking at Jackson Hole: “Markets will be laser focused to what Powell has to say at the end of this week, and on that, I think it will be a great opportunity for Powell to either endorse or push back market pricing,” “I

UK estate agents are reporting more buyer interest following the Bank of England interest rate cut The Bank of England began cutting interest rates from a 16-year high on August 1 Rightmove survey showed: Also: buyer enquiries in August were 19% higher than a year earlier, compared with an 11% annual increase in July Rightmove

The Quasimodo pattern is an established formation that some price action traders favour over ‘traditional’ support and resistance methods. Although the pattern’s origin is unknown, some believe it draws its name from the fictional character Quasimodo: the main character of the novel, The Hunchback of Notre Dame, with the pattern’s shape portraying Quasimodo’s physique. You

more to come For the April to June quarter machinery orders fell 0.1% q/q The outlook for the July to September quarter is for +0.2% q/q — The core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series its used as a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months This article

The unwinding of the carry trade may have seen yen shorts imploded. And that led to the sharp plunge in USD/JPY in early August. However, the event also kicked off a strong hint of risk aversion and traders turned to bonds for safety as well. It didn’t really help when market players also panicked in

China’s latest economic data is confirming that the world’s second-largest economy continues to struggle. Hitting its 5% growth target may require more drastic measures, fueling expectations for further government intervention. July’s data showed: home prices dropping at the fastest rate in nine yearsindustrial output slowingrising unemploymenteven where data beat forecasts, underlying issues persist, such as

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 flatUK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB +0.3% This comes with US futures also sitting marginally lower as the session gets underway. There’s not a whole lot to work with in terms of risk sentiment, as traders have to look to themselves to drive any moves. Fedspeak will be

ING’s chief international economist James Knightley spoke with news wire Dow Jones / Market Watch: Powell is likely to highlight that inflation is moving in the right directionGiving the Fed more confidence that it will reach its 2% targetPowell might signal that the slowdown in inflation allows the central bank to focus more on its

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Heads up for European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn, governor of the Finnish central bank, speaking during the US evening on Monday, August 19, 2024: 2200 GMT / 1800 US Eastern time I haven’t a topic for Rehn’s speech Left to right, Tuomas Välimäki, Member of the BoardGovernor of the Bank of Finland

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index for June 2024, via BusiznessNZ, comes in at 44.6 prior 40.7 (revised a touch higher) The report, in summary: Activity in New Zealand’s services sector for July showed some improvement after a horrendous June result44.6 is the highest result since Mayhas averaged 46.5 so far for 2024, compared

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly says the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) needs to take a gradual approach to lowering borrowing costs. Financial Times with the front page piece: The FT is gated, but in (very) brief from the report on the interview: Daly calls for “prudent” approach to lowering ratespushes

We haven’t heard much out of Japan today: Japan Machinery orders for June 2024: 2.1% m/m (expected +1.1%)Japan’s LDP will hold its leadership election on September 27 The USD has weakened across the major FX board, but its against JPY that is most notable. On Friday USD/JPY fell towards 147.50. After trading above 148.00 in

A note from JPM analysts says a shock market meltdown could be a scenario that happens again. “Many market participants are dismissing the recent blowup of various crowded trades as a fluke or flash cash, but we see it as more of a dress rehearsal for what’s to come” JP Morgan are referring to early

Headlines hitting the wires with no further details. For markets the focus is on the impact on oil prices. Oil futures reopen for the week’s trade in a couple of hours (6pm US Eastern time). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There isn’t much here to move major FX rates upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that,

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: New Zealand Services PMI, Fed’s Waller, BoC’s Senior Loan Officer Survey.Tuesday: PBoC LPR, RBA Meeting Minutes, Canada CPI, Eurozone Wage Growth.Wednesday: Canada PPI, FOMC Meeting Minutes.Thursday: Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs, ECB Meeting Minutes, US Jobless Claims, Jackson Hole Symposium.Friday: New Zealand Retail Sales, Japan CPI, Canada Retail Sales, Fed Chair Powell, Jackson Hole

I’m hosting a special free webinar on Monday at 9 am ET (1300 GMT) on ‘7 Common Trading Traps and How to Avoid Them’ It’s an especially notable topic right now given the moves in the yen and equities this month. The best way to make it in markets is to stay in markets. Register

19th-23rd August 2024: Mon: US Democratic National Convention (Aug 19-22), Bank of Indonesia Announcement, New Zealand Trade Balance (Jul)Tue: US Democratic National Convention (Aug 19-22), PBoC LPR, RBA Minutes, Riksbank Announcement, CBRT Announcement, EZ Final CPI (Jul), Canadian CPI (Jul)Wed: US Democratic National Convention (Aug 19-22), FOMC Minutes, Japanese Trade Balance (Jul)Thu: US Democratic National

Solana (SOL) price prediction: Bullish vs. bearish scenarios for the future value of SOL The Solana (SOL) cryptocurrency has been one of the most talked-about assets in the crypto space, known for its high-performance blockchain and a surge in market value in recent years. As someone who has actively traded Solana since its early days,

A note from economists at the investment bank. I haven’t spotted it yet but news wires carrying the highlights. In summary: cuts US recession likelihood to 20% from 25%, and says it may cut further, to 15%, if the nonfarm payroll report for August is ‘reasonably good’GS cite the retail sales data, best since early

We’ve been spared from summer doldrums in financial markets this year but early next week could be something of a dud, particularly until Jackson Hole begins. Monday kicks off with Fed’s Waller speaking at 09:15 am ET but that will be all for the day. Tuesday features speeches from the Fed’s Bostic and Barr but

US stock markets started lower today but found a footing early and slowly climbed the hill. Overall volatility was lower than it’s been and newsflow was light but the bulls should be encouraged by another positive close, led by smaller caps today. On the day: S&P 500 +0.2%Nasdaq Comp +0.2%DJIA +0.2%Russell 2000 +0.35% Toronto TSX

HSBC analyzes the factors behind GBP’s strong performance in 2024 and discusses the potential challenges ahead. While the currency has been resilient due to its high carry, HSBC warns that the outlook may not remain as favorable, especially with expected further rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE). Key Points: GBP’s Strength in 2024:

US August prelim UMich consumer sentiment 67.8 vs 66.9 expectedUS July housing starts 1.238M vs 1.330M expectedChina issues new gold import quotas after pause — reportFed’s Goolsbee: There are some things that are flashing yellowJuly Canada housing starts 279.5K vs 245.0KCanada June manufacturing sales -2.1% vs -2.6% expectedBaker Hughes US oil rig count -2Israeli intel

The recent rally in the euro hasn’t gotten much attention because there isn’t a great fundamental backing behind it. Europe’s economy continues to struggle and the move is mostly about broader US dollar selling. That said, sometimes the technicals lead the fundamentals and the poor economy in Europe is priced in at this point while

Oil rigs -2 to 483Gas rigs +1 to 98 WTI crude oil was last down $1.60 to $76.49. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 1.353MStarts -6.8% vs +3.0% priorBuilding permits +1.396M vs 1.429M expectedPermits -4.0% vs +3.9% prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar is under broad pressure as risk trades improve and we tick towards the weekend. Earlier, Treasury yields were low and that that should have weighed on the dollar but didn’t. AUD/USD has rose to the highest since July 21 in the latest leg. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Small business defaults are up, now it’s getting a little cautionaryUnemployment is up and that’s a caution sign I don’t think it will surprise anyone when Goolsbee is banging the table for a rate cut and dovish statement in September but it’s certainly not clear that others are ready to line up behind him yet.

I posted earlier on the big change from the PBOC: The People’s Bank of China has switched up its main policy rate to watch — But, back to today … the People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for

Daily stock market review: mixed trends and sector performances highlight cautious investor sentiment Today’s U.S. stock market shows a diverse panorama, exhibiting a mixture of trends and sentiment across various sectors. The heatmap provides a clear snapshot of today’s market dynamics, with significant movements in technology, healthcare, and financial sectors catching most of the investor’s

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced a trip to Israel earlier this week, then postponed it, raising some questions about what was happening with ceasefire negotiations. Now an Axios reporter reveals he will visit Israel on Sunday as part of a regional visit that will include Egypt and Qatar. This article was written by

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got two strong US data releases as the Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures came out much better than expected. The initial reaction was US Dollar bullish, but after a while the market started to fade the move. The reason is that the risk-on sentiment is generally negative for the greenback

We started the week at 2.9% and finish at 2.0%. I would be worried about that if we were anywhere close to Q3 GDP numbers but the prelim estimate is still months away and vol early in the cycle is normal. “After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of

Prior was +0.4%Sales at $69.6 billion in June on declines in 17 of 21 subsectorsDeclines led by the transportation equipment (-2.9%), chemical product (-5.8%) and primary metal (-2.7%) subsectorsTotal sales fell 0.3% in the second quarter of 2024 in third consecutive quarterly declineSales down 1.8% y/yTotal inventory levels +0.1%Unfilled orders -0.8% Retooling at auto factories

Mt. Gox fund liquidation weighed heavily on bitcoin yesterday in what was an otherwise-strong environment for risk assets. It’s been a tricky run for bitcoin as it disconnects from the tight correlation to the Nasdaq. I think that connection is ultimately restored and it climbs back into the $64,000 range but I also think the

Israeli intelligence now assesses that Hezbollah and Iran have lowered the level of alertness in their rocket and missile units and that the response will take place at a later date, according to five Israeli officials, cited by the New York Times. “By Friday, Israeli intelligence had assessed that Hezbollah and Iran had lowered the

Vice President Kamala Harris will call for the construction of 3 million new housing units in her first four years in office, as well as a new tax incentive for builders that construct properties for first-time home buyers The Wall Street Journal with the report. The housing plan is part of Harris’ economic plan, which

Rabobank analysts on oil: “The concerns of an escalation in the Middle East between Iran and Israel again remain overblown with regard to elevated crude oil prices” “Only direct action between Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United States toward some kind of blockade or closure of the Strait of Hormuz will materially affect the global

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.3%German DAX +0.8%Francis CAC +0.4%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.4%Spain’s Ibex +0.6%Italy’s FTSE MIB +2.0% Italy posted some strong outperformance today while the UK struggled. On the week: Stoxx 600 +2.4%German DAX +3.4%Francis CAC +2.7%UK’s FTSE 100 +5.0%Spain’s Ibex +2.9%Italy’s FTSE MIB +4.0% The STOXX 600 is up 6.4% from the lows

The rally in gold earlier today may have been underpinned by the issue of new gold import quotas to Chinese banks. Reuters is now reporting about the new quotas, citing four sources. “The quotas have been issued but the local premium to offshore is low so there is no guarantee that the quotas will be

Goldman Sachs discusses their outlook for USD/JPY, emphasizing the role of US rates and real rate differentials in determining the pair’s future performance. Key Points: Dominance of US Rates: Return to Fundamentals: Goldman Sachs expects USD/JPY to align more closely with fundamentals, particularly US interest rates, following recent dislocations driven by carry trade unwinds.Constructive US

US President Joe Biden says “we’re not there yet but we’re closer than three days ago”. I don’t think many traders are trying to predict the outcome of this but Iran seems to have backed off in its planned attack. Here is what Israeli geopolitical analyst Michael Horowitz said: US has put forth a bridging

July final was 66.4Current conditions 60.9 vs 62.7 priorExpectations 72.1 vs 68.8 prior1-year inflation 2.9% vs 2.9% prior5-10 year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% priorOverall, expectations strengthened for both personal finances and the five-year economic outlook (highest reading in four months) Yesterday’s retail sales report was strong and Walmart executives repeatedly described a stable and resilient

Prior was 241.7K (revised to 241.6K)Multi-unit starts +21% vs -12% priorSingle-detached +2% vs -2% prior This is a strong reading as the inventory of pre-sold homes and condos continues to be worked through. The problem is that the front of the pipeline has completely dried up. The CMHC cited strong gains in Calgary and Ottawa

It could be a big day for gold as it nears the July record high of $2483. It just crossed through the July high of $2484 in a strong rebound from yesterday’s decline. The next level to watch is $2500. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s going to be another empty European session on the data front. We will get two notable releases in the US session though, but they shouldn’t be market moving unless we see big deviations from the expected numbers. The first one will be the US Housing Starts and Building Permits, and then we conclude with

German DAX futures +0.3%UK FTSE futures +0.1% This carries over the positive mood after the US retail sales data yesterday, in which Wall Street also rallied to close near the highs. S&P 500 futures are also up another 0.3% currently, with Nasdaq futures up 0.4% and Dow futures up 0.2%. With yesterday’s rally, the S&P

The live link to proceedings is here. Or, here: Bullock opening statement summary is here: RBA’s Bullock says underlying inflation remains too high AUD/USD is circa 0.6612 and barely moving This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This is not what an overheating economy looks like to me Given the latest jobs report earlier this month, I don’t think anyone thinks that the economy is overheating. But from the retail sales data yesterday, it’s not that bad either. Anyway, this just reaffirms that the Fed is trying to ease into a pivot

There is a bit of a flag pattern forming in gold as price action continues to sit near fresh record highs this week. There was an attempt to breach the key resistance region around $2,475-80 on Wednesday but buyers cooled off after. And after a slight setback, they are quickly turning things around again as

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +2.0% Italian stocks are leading the way as they have some catching up to do amid a market holiday yesterday. As a whole, European indices were looking quite bad after the drop at the end of July and the start of August.

Prior -1.2%UK retail sales +1.4% vs +1.4% y/y expectedPrior -0.2%; revised to -0.3%UK retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.7% vs +0.8% m/m expectedPrior -1.5%; revised to -1.3%UK retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +1.4% vs +1.4% y/y expectedPrior -0.8% It’s one of those few times that UK retail sales does meet estimates, reaffirming a slight bounce