Details of the BOE monthly Decision Maker Panel for October Year-ahead Own-price Inflation: Remained unchanged at 3.5% in the three months to October.Firms expect output price inflation to decrease by 0.5 percentage points over the next 12 months. CPI Inflation: Perceived CPI inflation was 2.7% in the three months to October, unchanged from the previous […]

Impossible to say where the next shock for the financial system will come from Well, at least they’re already starting to acknowledge the risks of tariffs that will come about when Trump takes office next year. But we’ll have to wait and see to gauge the impact as a whole. This article was written by

Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau is a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council, the monetary policy setting board of the Bank. He spoke on Wednesday. “The American election must sound a wakeup call for Europe”Trump’s policy moves had to be seen, but a risk his plans could lead to a

Good morning. The Bank of England cut rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% to kickstart the US session. The vote was 8-1 vote with Catherine Mann as the only member who voted to keep rates unchanged. Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted the ongoing progress in disinflation but noted that domestic inflationary pressures are easing at

Prior week initial jobless claims revised to 218K vs 216Kinitial jobless claims 221K vs 221K estimate4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 227.25K vs 237.0K last week.Prior week of continuing claims 1.862M revised to 1.853MContinuing claims 1,892M vs 1.875M est4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.876M vs 1.867M last weekThe largest increases in initial claims

The House has been looking like it would stay under Republican control for awhile but I think there is a big difference to a 1-2 seat majority compared to a larger buffer. A tiny margin runs the risk that a Congressman grandstands or flips. The latest forecast from Decision Desk has shifted a couple more

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 43 bps (100% probability of rate cut at today’s decision) 2025: 106 bps ECB: 27 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 133 bps BoE: 31 bps (94% probability of rate cut at today’s decision) 2025: 87 bps BoC: 36 bps (55% probability of 25 bps

Prior was +0.4% (revised to +2.4%)Productivity +2.2% vs +2.3% expectedPrior productivity +2.5% (revised to +2.1%) In the long-run, productivity is the most-important predictor of an economy but in the short run, it’s nearly impossible to measure. Within this data, the unit labor cost number is certainly an inflationary one. This article was written by Adam

The USD is moving lower after the run higher yesterday after the US election. Yields which moved sharply higher are lower today and helping the bias. In the above video, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What levels are in play? What is the bias in the short term? What

The major US indices are trading higher for the second consecutive day after the President Trump victory gives investors hope for more growth, more stimulus. The Dow industrial average which led the way yesterday however is trading above or below unchanged. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average down -12 points or

Prior month +0.2%US wholesale inventories (revised) -0.2% versus -0.1% estimate (and preliminary)Wholesale sales +0.3% versus positive 0.2% estimate Sales September 2024 sales for merchant wholesalers (excluding manufacturers’ sales branches and offices) reached $674.8 billion.Increased by 0.3% from the revised August level.Decreased by 0.4% compared to September 2023.July to August 2024 percent change was revised:From a

The topic of the Phil Lane’s speech is “Public debt: Past lessons, future challenges” which is topical given that Germany is angling to have an election on removing the debt break. The presentation has been published and argues: Sovereign spread changes have significant impact on domestic lending conditionsCountries with weak bank capital ratios see stronger

The disinflation process is faster than expectedBut we still need services inflation to come down more broadlyThere could be lingering persistence in wage inflation pressures beyond the forecast This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The groundwork is being laid by European leaders to shift towards larger deficit spending. Yesterday, German Chancellor Scholz signalled a plan to have an election based on removing the fiscal break and elsewhere, politicians aren’t shifting back to pre-covid norms. There is pushback though as ECB chief economist Phil Lane made a presentation today warning

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Don’t expect interest rates to go back to very low levels unless there is some completely unknown shockWe will see where market interest rates are at the December meeting and judge policy accordinglyWe do have to watch very carefully the fragmentation of the world economyThere are a lot of risks related to that but we

Japan’s financial watchdog looks to put legal curbs in place to prevent foreign cryptocurrency exchanges from taking domestic assets overseas. This is intended to protect traders on the ‘exchanges’ (LOL, they are websites) Nikkei (gated) with the report. Assets have surged in the past day or so, of course: This article was written by Eamonn

Reuters Japan Corporate Survey In brief: Over half of Japanese firms plan to raise wages by 3% or more for the next business year, according to a Reuters survey.42% of firms expect wage hikes between 3% and 5%, while 9% foresee increases of 5% to 7%.41% anticipate wage increases between 1% and 3%.Survey conducted by

Well, that’s some contrast to the call by Nomura here which forecasts the Fed to cut by just once in 2025. But I guess the wide range of differing views highlights the uncertain nature of the Fed outlook now that Trump is president. As for markets, traders are pricing in ~89 bps of rate cuts

The greenback is seeing some light retracements across the board today, though the antipodeans are posting a solid rebound so far on the day. AUD/USD is up 0.8% to 0.6620 and is moving closer back towards a test of its 200-day moving average (blue line) of 0.6628. There’s not much catalysts in play at the

The market curve is what it isWe’ve used the term “gradual” for some time already nowBut will not go beyond what the term may mean as there is still a lot of uncertaintyIt is good news that inflation is well below where they thought it would be a year agoBut we are still in a

Chinese trade data YTD (January – October) USD denominated: exports +5.7% y/yimports +1.7% y/y Trade balance (January – October) is a surplus of 785.27bn USD. I haven’t yet spotted October alone data. — Trump has said he’ll be slamming China with 60% or more tariffs. — As an aside, mainland China and Hong Kong equity

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

In the European session the highlight will be the BoE rate decision where the central bank is expected to cut by 25 bps. In the American session, we get the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC rate decision. 12:00 GMT/07:00 ET – BoE Rate Decision The BoE is expected to cut interest rates by 25

Is AMD stock a buy or sell? key technical analysis and forecast supporting to sell it 🔍 When it comes to deciding whether AMD stock is a buy or sell, recent price action and technical indicators offer valuable insights. Currently, AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) is showing signs of weakness as it fails to hold within

Harris giving her concession speech after the election. If you are interested: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Our companies need support immediately, anybody who refuses that is acting irresponsiblyGermany will have to take responsibility and help Europe hold togetherAfter US elections we need to show we could be relied onBut finance minister Lindner showed no willingness to implement any of our proposalsOf all the rich democracies, we have by far the lowest

China stocks fall again at open as investors brace for Trump presidency China and Hong Kong stocks started lower on Thursday – info via Reuters. Investors are wary of heightened tensions around security and trade in a second Donald Trump presidency. On the other hand, the Chinese leadership meeting, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee,

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Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 soared into a new all-time high following Trump’s victory and the red sweep as the market started to look forward to bullish drivers like tax cuts and deregulation. One potential bearish reason people are looking at is rising Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish when the Fed is tightening though as

The slide for imports is not encouraging. The export pipeline looks like its swelling ahead of the US expected swinging tariffs. Exports have been a bright spot for the economy struggling with weak domestic demand and a seemingly never-ending property market debt crisis. YTD figures are here from earlier: China January – October dollar denominated

Last week, the tech giants — Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta — released their quarterly reports, which showed steady revenue and profit growth across the board, pretty much in line with previous ones. However, except for the results of Jeff Bezos’ company and Amazon stock, the investors were not “fully satisfied.” Mixed forecasts for

Lane and Schnabel the most likely to spin out some market-relevant comments. Times below are GMT/US Eastern time: 0730/0230 ECB chief economist Philip Lane and Bank of Greece governor Yannis Stournaras will address a conference in Athens on “Public Debt, Past Lessons, Future Challenges” organised by Bank of Greece 0810/0310 Opening remarks by ECB Board

The most-bizarre reaction to the Trump win for me was the initial rally in the DAX. If the US is coming with tariffs, that’s a big problem for Germany’s export sector, in particular. The market seems to have figured it out as the rally has now turned into a 0.3% decline. Here is the intraday

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Japan wages data shows that ‘real’ wages, ie after adjustment for inflating prices, fell in September. September Labour Cash Earnings+2.8% y/y expected +3.0%, prior +2.8% Real Cash Earnings -0.1% y/y, falling for the second month in a row expected +0.1%, prior –0.8% — Real wages are a critical indicator of consumer purchasing power in Japan,

The NZDUSD moved higher into the Election Day, but found willing sellers near the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. As the election results started to come in, the buyers turned to sellers. ON the way lower, the price fell below the 100/200 hour MAs near 0.5975 and fell below the low from last

Cryptocurrency payments have made financial transactions faster and safer. Forex brokers that integrate a cryptocurrency payment gateway can provide these advantages and more for their users. Crypto payment integration results in real-time transaction settlement, lower fees, and improved fraud prevention. These benefits increase forex brokers’ operational efficiency, help them attract a global clientele, and remove

Goldman Sachs is saying that they keep its 12 month target for the S&P at 6300. The high price today reached 5907. A move to the target would imply a gain of 5.08% from the high price today. Goldman says that downside risks are the prospect of a trade conflict. On the positive side is

Prior was +5474Crude oil inventories +2149K vs +1103K expGasoline inventories +412K vs -878K expDistillates inventories +2947K vs -1137K expRefinery utilization +1.4% versus expectations of +0.3% Private inventory data released late yesterday: Crude +1643KGasoline -2019KDistillates -1478K Today’s report is bearish for crude but ahead of the report, it had made an impressive comeback. This article was

Prior +0.2%; revised to +1.1% Euro area retail sales grew by more than expected and that is on top of a sharp revision higher to the August figure. Looking at the details, food sales were down 0.4% but non-food store retail sales were up 1.1% with automotive fuel store sales up 0.2% on the month.

The AUDUSD fell ahead of the election results and in the process moved to the lowest level since August 8 at 0.6506 and bounced. The subsequent move higher taken the price toward the midpoint of the day’s trading range. The price has also moved back toward the converged 100 and 200-hour MAs near 0.6586. Those

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar rallied across the board yesterday as Trump got elected President of the US. The Republicans won also the Senate and the House giving us a red sweep and therefore high chances of tax cuts. This should be the most bullish scenario for the greenback as it should lead to higher

German construction activity slumped further in October, with both activity and new orders declining at a quicker pace. Adding to that is another notable round of retrenchment, highlighting rougher employment conditions. All main sectors showed a decline in activity, with housing once again being the worst performer. HCOB notes that: “The downturn in Germany’s construction

Following his win in Pennsylvania and earlier victories in other key battleground states in Georgia and North Carolina, Republican candidate Donald Trump took to the stage shortly after in Palm Beach, Florida. Trump is set to become the 47th President of the United States (US) as he took an early victory lap on stage and

China’s Xi Jinping congratulates Trump on election victory hopes that the two sides will respect each other, coexist peacefully and achieve win-win cooperationthe international community expects that both countries will respect each other, coexist peacefully, and achieve win-win cooperationboth sides should strengthen dialogueUS-China cooperation is a long-term goalUrges China, US to properly manage differences These

Analysts at MUFG say sterling is less vulnerable to tariffs than the currencies of other G10 countries. They cite the predominance of UK services and exports to the US over goods. On the Bank of England later today: expect a rate cut GBP could benefit if the BoE pauses in DecemberBOE needs to be cognizant

Info via Reuters: Taiwan’s China Airlines is close to deciding a multi-billion-dollar order for long-distance passenger jets, potentially split between Airbus and Boeing.The order for freighters is still under consideration, influenced partly by the U.S. presidential election outcome.The decision follows Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, with Taiwan aiming to maintain strong U.S. ties.The

They did the same yesterday. They won’t stop a rampant US dollar, but they’ll try to slow it. USD/CNH update: Before you harangue me, yes I am aware that the offshore yuan, CNH, is different to the onshore yuan, CNY. Feel free to post a USD/CNY chart in the comments. This article was written by

The firm had previously penciled in the ECB to cut interest rates to 2.25% as their base case. So, this is 75 bps lower than that. With potential Trump tariffs on the cards, that’s a key factor that could weigh on the euro area economy next year. So, that in turn creates downside risks to

AUD and Kiwi$ were hit on the surge of USD strength on Trump’s election. The drop has continued to be unwound today: No resistance showing on these charts, check for near highs earlier this week at least initially This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures +0.4%UK FTSE futures +0.4% This has that familiar ring to it, just like yesterday. European futures might be looking to chase the mood in US stocks again now but that turned sour when we got to US trading yesterday. With Trump in charge now, tariffs on the EU – particularly Germany –

A key beneficiary of the surge in crypto as Trum p won the election. BTC rose, ETH the same. Bids right across the complex. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0725 and 1.0775 levels. To some degree, the expiries might just lock price action in between these levels but it’s all about post-election sentiment now. And momentum flows will be the key driver of the moves,

George Saravalos at Deutsche Bank makes two spectacular points in the aftermath of the election. 1) Beware regime shifts He’s not talking about the political regime shift here, he’s talking about a regime shift in markets in terms of how cross-asset classes interact. “Global risk assets are taking their cue from US equities and generally

1400 GMT / 0900 Eastern time: Opening remarks by Rhys Mendes, Deputy Governor of Bank of Canada at The John Kuszczak Memorial Lecture From the site: Sounds complicated. Link to the webinar is here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.3% House prices in the UK nudged higher again, keeping the positive momentum in recent months. Halifax notes that: “That house prices have reached these heights again in the current economic climate may come as a surprise to many, but perhaps more noteworthy is that they didn’t fall very far in the first place..

Prior €22.5 billion Slight delay in the release by the source. The German trade balance narrowed in September with exports falling by 1.7% on the month while imports grew by 2.1% on the month. The former continues to present a challenging picture for the German economy and even more so now that Trump is in

Will strengthen communication with marketsTo steadily promote opening up of China’s financial services industry and marketsWill promote a sustained economic recovery The headlines noted that he provided an “in-depth explanation” of China’s current monetary policy stance and considerations to the central bank’s framework to said institutions. But from the remarks above, it is just more

Prior +2.9% Slight delay in the release by the source. After a modest showing in the month before, German industrial output slumped again in September. This is part of the Q3 picture though, so it isn’t too relevant at this stage. And even more so now that the German economy will have to look to

The EURUSD moved higher before the results of the election started to trickle in. The price moved up to test the 100-day MA and the 38.2% of the move down from the September high. The price moved lower as results came in, first breaking below the 200-day MA at 1.08687 and then the 100-bar MA

Some JPY strength has taken USD/JPY down sharply towards 154.00. No obvious immediate catalyst. It topped above 154.70 a good few hours ago and dribbled down to trade around 154.40/50 before its fall now. The USD is weaker almost across the board today. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Atsushi Mimura is Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, AKA ‘top currency diplomat’. Japan’s finance ministry is the relevant authority in Japan for ordering intervention in the JPY. Mimura has taken over from Kanda in charge of the relevant department, so it’s him who would be directing Bank of Japan intervention, should it come

Gold is down $78 today to $2666 on the combination of higher Treasure yields and a stronger US dollar following the election. There is also some element of ‘sell the fact’ and relief that we don’t have a contested, uncertain result. It’s a 2.8% daily drop but it’s only a moderate setback in this year’s

Wages data from Japan will be eyed to give a clue on Bank of Japan rate hilkes ahead. The previous month’s data for these were a little disappointing for the Bank: Disappointing data on wages … not as yen positive as it could be Since that data we’ve had Japanese elections with political push back

Nomura anticipates that the Fed will respond cautiously to a Trump administration focused on tariffs and tax policies, which could be inflationary and growth-dampening. The Fed is expected to make two more cuts this year, with only one cut in 2025, followed by a pause and gradual easing in 2026. Key Points: Economic Policy Focus:

The only reason I can think of for the early strength in Europe stocks was a flow-driven unwind in volatility and option trades. In any case, the market later figured out that Trump’s plan is to put tariffs on Europe. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.6%German DAX -1.1%France CAC -0.7%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain IBEX -2.9%Italy’s FTSE

Harris will deliver a concession speech at ‘around’ 6 pm ET. Biden is also likely to speak today or tomorrow. It’s way too early to talk about the future of the Democratic Party. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Australian trade data for September 2024 Barely impacting on the Australian dollar. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In crypto, you always have that lingering feeling that a rug pull is right around the corner and that big gains are about to evaporate. There were fears about a ‘sell the fact’ move in bitcoin after the election and I’m sure those haven’t gone away but the strong finish today is promising. Bitcoin is

With Trump coming back from January 20 2025, Inauguration Day, get set for four years of headline trading. Trump’s first term was characterised by policy-shift-by-tweet, often while he was (NSFW! warning) … ummm … using the bathroom (apparently!). This produced some wild swings in financial markets. ForexLive will, as always, have an eagle eye out

Banco Central do Brasil Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decision: Decision was unanimous.Pace of future interest rate adjustments and total magnitude of the cycle will be determined by the firm commitment to reaching the inflation target.Pace of future interest rate adjustments and total cycle magnitude will depend on inflation dynamics, expectations and projections, the output gap,

Mitch McConnell was asked about Trump tax cuts and said “I’m sure virtually all of us would like to see most of that extended”. McConnell also called for increasing defense spending. It all adds up to some big deficits. It’s not clear who will be the new Senate majority leader but three names that have

Prior was 53.1Non-seasonally adjusted vs 54.5 prior This is a low tier indicator but Canadian manufacturing is worth pondering on the loonie trade. Tariffs are a risk, but the currency is also near a four-year low. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Lagarde in Frankfurt: Celebrating 10 years of Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM)Bank capital ratios improved significantly: CET1 up from 12.7% (2015) to 15.8% (mid-2024)Euro area needs more banking consolidation – only 2 euro area banks rank in global top 10Banks need to help fund €5.4 trillion in green/digital/defense investments (2025-2031)Pushes for reduced national ring-fencing of capital/liquidityWants

Vitol head of research: China will continue to play an important role in global oil demand.Global oil demand to peak only in the 2030s, later than expected due to lower pick-up in EVs and commitments to environmental targetsLPG, naphtha, and jet fuel to drive global oil demand growth in 2025-2030China is restarting oil demand growth

German Chancellor Scholz angles for an election before the end of MarchGerman chancellor Scholz: Our companies need help immediatelyBOC’s Rogers highlights risks around higher rates after US electionThe US treasury auctions off $25B of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.608%McConnell wants to see Trump tax cuts extendedRepublicans extend lead in the HouseCanada

There are goign to be policy changes to taxes, to trade, to immigration in the US that could lead to economic growth, which could lead to inflation and higher rates in the USBank of Canada is absorbing what we’re seeing and starting to think aheadWe will remain optimistic as things move from campaign to governing,

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock testimony to parliament Senate committee Comments: premature to assess impact of US election outcometoo early to assess tariff implicationsmonitoring global developments, prepared to move accordinglyRBA will respond as needed to geopolitical risksChina’s stimulus plans are a positive for China and AustraliaAustralia’s domestic inflation outlook is unchanged as yetgovernment cost

Add some political intrigue into the mix as German Chancellor Scholz says he will call for a confidence vote on Jan 15 that would allow for election before the end of March. He also highlighted that “of all the rich democracies, we have by far the lowest debt”. That’s the sort of thing a politician

I would say that so far, markets are on their way to pricing in a return of Trump 1.0. What we don’t know is if we’ll get something closer to the Trump 2.0 who talked about 60% China tariffs and mass deportations. Time will tell and we will be trading the headlines. For now, equities

The US treasury will auction off $25B of the “grand-daddy of them all” coupon issue – the 30 year bond. That comes the day after the US political enviroment and economic environment changed with the election of Pres. Trump and the winning of the Senate and most likely the House as well. BMO previewed the

High Yield 4.608%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.63%Tail: -2.2 bps vs 6-month average 0.5 bpsBid to cover: 2.64X vs 6 month average of 2.4XDirects (a measure of domestic demand):27.1% vs. 6-month average of 16.58%Indirects (a measure of international demand): 62.7% vs 6-month average of 68.10%Dealers: 10.2% vs 5-month average of 15.32% Auction

Trump is back and it looks like Republicans are back in Congressional control. The last time we had this slate, Republicans cut corporate taxes and I expect that will be the case again. The big change is that this time, the US is already running a 7% deficit of GDP and the S&P 500 is

Construction PMI 54.3 vs 55.5 expected and 57.2 prior. Key findings: Civil engineering remains best-performing category, followed by commercial work. Renewed decline in house building. Business optimism slips to ten-month low. Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The construction sector signalled another month of solid output growth in October, despite

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Goldman Sachs is out with a note calling for the ECB’s terminal rate to fall to 1.75% rather than 2.00% in light of Trump’s win and incoming tariffs. I’ll take the ‘under’ on that. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It looks like Republicans will have free reign to administer the legislative agenda for at least the next two years. The bond market has been sniffing this out for awhile and is wilting today, with 30-year yields now up 19 bps on the assumption that Trump tax cuts will be extended and that there will

Pres. Trump blazed through the Presidential election and a new era begins. With control of the Senate and the House still up but leaning to the GOP too, the door is wide open for the administration for deregulation, smaller government, lower taxes. The theme is to grow the economy through the private sector with fingers

The first exit poll from Edison Research is out and it focuses on the demographics of voters: 53% of voters women vs 52% in 2020 71% white vs 67% in 202057% no college degree vs 59% in 202045% said personal finances were worse than 4 years ago vs 20% in 202031% said economy mattered most

The GBPUSD has moved down to test the 50% and a swing area between 1.2844 and 1.28719. The midpoint level is at 1.2866. The low price reached 1.2864 and is bouncing modestly. The bounce will target the low from two weeks ago at 1.29064. Staying below keeps the seller in control On the downside, the

Japan Jibun Bank / S&P Global Services PMI (October) 49.7 flash was 49.3prior was 53.1 Composite 49.6 prior 52.0 The report notes that momentum in Japan’s service sector faltered sharply at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2024, as companies experienced their first contraction in four months. Although the decline was slight, it coincided

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. But on a day like this, the influence of the expiries is far from the first thing in driving or impacting trading sentiment. It’s all about the US election and the momentum flows riding from the results and emotions. As

And the policy push that matters most for Trump is arguably that of tax cuts. The House is in charge of approving tax legislation and a Democratic majority there surely won’t make matters easy for Trump. He would have to go through unconventional means i.e. executive powers in order to try and push through. But

There are three reasons why the Russell 2000 is the big winner and why that should last: 1) It’s bank heavy A big part of the Russell is banks and regional banks. The regulatory environment is going to improve markedly and we’re seeing a steeper yield curve, both big tailwinds. The KRE regional bank ETF

I’ve seen figures suggesting Trump to take 312 college votes vs. Harris 226. Seems a bit extreme , but still it’s the vibe right now. Trump in front bigly. . The USD is skyrocketing. AUD down 1%, NZD not far off. GBP down, EUR dpwn, JPY down. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Preliminary results of Pennsylvania exit poll from Edison Research: Trump wins 43% of women voters, Harris wins 55%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020Trump wins 50% of white women voters, Harris wins 48%; Trump share down 2 pts from 2020Trump wins 58% of white male voters, Harris wins 40%; Trump share down 4 pts

The USDCHF is trading up and down in trading today as the pair buys time ahead of the election results. The low for the price action has found support buyers in a key swing area between 0.86078 and 0.8619. That area also held support on Monday. On the upside, the 100 bar moving average on

There have been some big moves so far on the assumption of a red sweep but history shows that we’re only getting started. Here is the matrix from Deutsche Bank on the red sweep trades: Separately, here are seven equity-specific Trump trades from Jim Cramer. On top of that, we’re seeing rallies in the more-obvious

That is the highest level in four months and carries on from the surging run since October. And this is in part fueling the dollar gains on the day with EUR/USD now down nearly 2% at 1.0715 and USD/JPY up 1.7% to 154.15 currently. Trump’s domestic policies are largely aimed at boosting growth, spending and

The price of Bitcoin is running higher on the early Trump enthusiasm and in the process is moving toward the November 1 high. That level comes in at $71584. The high price just reached $71468 and backed off a bit. The current price is at $71163. Trump is considered more friendly to digital currencies. This

The US economic calendar is bare today aside from weekly oil inventory data. That will give markets a chance to trade around the election results. Eyes continue to be on House races, as it currently looks like Republicans will have a 2-seat majority, though there are some very close races. Scheduled economic news is slated

Crude oil futures are settling at $71.99, that is up $0.52 or 0.73%. Some influences: OPEC+ delayed 180,000 barrels per day of monthly production increases to January.US election uncertainty: Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are neck and neck.China’s improving economy supports oil prices. Technically, the price spent most of the day between

Preliminary Results of Arizona Exit Poll: 46% of voters view Harris favorably, compared to Biden’s 49% in the 2020 exit poll (Edison Research).46% of voters view Trump favorably, versus 48% in the 2020 exit poll (Edison Research).63% of voters were White, versus 74% in the 2020 exit poll.4% were Black, versus 2% in 2020.26% were

Prior 49.6Composite PMI 48.1 vs 47.3 prelimPrior 48.6 The revisions are positive but still marks a drop from September. The details reveal the sharpest drop in new business since January with growth expectations also declining markedly compared to the month before. Cost pressures were subdued but prices charged by French service firms were still on

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar is higher across the board today as Trump got elected President of the US. The Republicans won the Senate, and they just need the House now to get a red sweep. That is the most bullish scenario for the greenback as it would make the tax cuts easier to pass

The data is here: New Zealand Q3 unemployment rate 4.8% (expected 5.0%, prior 4.6%) Westpac have a handy summary up, we don’t think that there’s anything in today’s figures that would shift the RBNZ’s thinking for its next policy decision at the end of this month Link to the full piece is here. My really

Final Services PMI 51.6 vs. 51.4 expected and 50.6 prior.Final Composite PMI 48.6 vs. 48.4 expected and 47.5 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 51.6 (Sep: 50.6). 3-month high. HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 48.6 (Sep: 47.5). 3-month high. New business falls for second month running, leading to

The onshore yuan is sinking to its lowest since mid-August against the dollar now, with USD/CNY on the verge of hitting 7.17 on the day. It comes amid a surging dollar but also some bad news for China with Trump set to win the presidency. More tariffs and trade conflict will mean added concerns for

The NYT projection has Republicans with 194 seats and Democrats with 173 seats at the moment. And among the key ‘competitive’ districts here, there are still 45 left to officially report. That said, some of the votes are likely to be called imminently. So, let’s take a look at some important details that have surfaced

But the results have sort of been know for a while already, almost for the past four to five hours. Trump is on the verge of officially being declared the winner. He has 247 seats in the pocket with all the remaining five swing states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) all leaning towards him

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.5% They’ve turned higher now in the past hour, dragged up by even more positive sentiment in US futures. S&P 500 futures are now at the highs for the day, up 1.7%, as we await the official announcement declaring Trump’s victory. For European equities, there is some mixed sentiment

The drop today brings the pair down to its lowest levels since June, with the daily decline itself set to even eclipse that seen in March 2020. The over 2% drop now is going to be the worst daily decline for EUR/USD since June 2016 amid the Brexit referendum vote. What a day. Trump’s election

Harris vs. Trump day here in Asia. Counting will commence around 6pm US Eastern time and I suspect we won’t get a definitive result before most of the US goes to bed. Apart from the election there are a few items of interest on the calendar here in the region. The New Zealand jobs report

Prior -0.1%Market index 191.4 vs 214.5 priorPurchase index 130.8 vs 137.8 priorRefinance index 513.5 vs 630.0 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.81% vs 6.73% prior Mortgage applications tanked in the past week with both purchases and refinancing activity slumping hard amid the rise in rates. Now that Trump has won the election and rates are skyrocketing even

Goldman Sachs cites potential tariff risks on the euro area following his election win today. No surprises there as this is also a key factor weighing on the euro currency as outlined here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

I’m not sure what the FX market is trying to tell us today but all of the USD declines from earlier today has been erased. The main argument for a dollar rally that I’ve heard in the past month is a red sweep. The idea here is that Trump and Republicans would run deficits, cut

The dollar continues to hold higher across the board but not really pushing further upside in European morning trade. USD/JPY is up 1.5% to 153.95 with the earlier high touching 154.37. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is seen down 1.5% to 1.0765 but well off lows of 1.0702 when Trump was more or less a shoo-in to win

The Associated Press has made their call and we’re seeing everyone else chime in with CBS, Fox, and CNN all making their calls as well. Even Edison Research and FiveThirtyEight are also now calling it for Trump. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar has taken another leg higher. That’s come with similar moves in yields and bitcoin, all signs that the vote is moving in Trump’s direction. House odds have also improved for the GOP and that will be a critical secondary factor to watch. The latest news is that Decision Desk HQ has called

The Decision Desk HQ model has called the state for Trump. Moreover, they have the projected margin at 51.2% vs 47.8%. What’s notable about this result is that it expands on Trump’s win in the state compared to 2020, when he won by 1 point. That runs against the exit poll data from Edison that

Fundamental Overview Gold is trading lower today as Trump got elected President of the US. The Republicans won the Senate, and they just need the House now to get a red sweep. That is the most bearish scenario for gold in the short-term as it would make the tax cuts easier to pass which should

Earlier today, I highlighted that Harris was running better in Sullivan county in Indiana, which was one of the first counties to report. Well now, with 98% of the votes counted, Trump is running better than he did in 2020 by about 1 point. That’s a good sign for the former President and you can

All the Trump trades have climbed as election results from Georgia and Florida come in. Trump is running decidedly better in Florida and it’s safe to say he has won the state. The stronger vote there bodes well for him but him winning that state isn’t really a surprise. Perhaps what the market is reacting

We made history for a reason tonightWe’re going to help our country healThis will be the golden age of AmericaAmerica has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandateWe have taken back control of the SenateIt also looks like we are keeping control of the House This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Amid all the chaos and focus on the US election, let’s not forget that we have a Fed meeting as well on 7 November. As things stand, traders are still pricing in ~99% odds of a 25 bps rate cut for tomorrow. But looking out to October next year, the total rate cuts priced in

It all comes down to this now in determining whether or not we will see a red sweep in the election. The latest NYT projection has Republicans at 197 seats and Democrats at 177 seats. Remember, the magic number is 218 seats for a majority for the House. So, what has happened so far and

Its too early to be definitive but the current state of play is favourable for Trump. Indeed, the New York Times electoral college ‘needle’ is currently putting Trump on 278 electoral votes vs. 260 for Harris. The USD surged earlier as the voting favoured Trump. Key state of Georgia looks all but locked in for

I’ll update his remarks in a separate post. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Major indices close near the high of the day as US voter go to the pollsCrude oil futures settle at $71.99BOC Meeting minutes: BOC felt upside pressure on inflation will continue to declineThe Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate 2.4% vs 2.3% lastUS sells 10-year notes at 4.347% vs 4.350% WIVideo: Canadian dollar higher into the

A snippet while we await some results out of the US election. This via an analyst at Citi speaking in a CNBC interview on Tuesday before polls closed. In brief: starting point is fairly extended valuation … predicated on very strong earnings growth follow-through into 2025concern is that with that set up, you go into

I’m not sure where the votes are here but the biggest risk to the moves we have seen so far is if Democrats gain control of the House. Betting sites have Republicans as big favorites to win it but those are thin markets. It’s really tough to crunch the numbers in that department but the

US election: The calls are officially out now, Trump has won the US presidential electionTrump: This is a magnificent victory for the American peopleThe race for control of the House is playing out accordingly for the most part thus farHouse odds swing back in favour of RepublicansThe race for control of the House remains a

Asian timezone participants are well versed in thin liquidity trade, we see it every Monday morning. It’s the case today also, markets are going to shoved around on US election counting news. Be careful, your fills may be further away from where you click the buttons. USD/JPY and EUR/USD sharp moves: This article was written

What we know so far As of 7:00 a.m. UTC, most data providers, including ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN, projected that Donald Trump would become the next president of the United States. However, even as Trump’s victory looks almost guaranteed at this point, it is the balance of power in the U.S. Congress that will

Decision Desk HQ is reporting odds of Democrats winning the House at 57.4% but that is the narrowest it has been in the last three hours. And in terms of number of seats, they are projecting Democrats to barely pip it with 219 seats. As a reminder, 218 seats is needed for control of the

These are critical states for the election: Preliminary results of Michigan exit poll: Trump wins 42% of voters with college degrees, Harris wins 56%; Trump share up 1 pt from 2020Trump wins 53% of voters without college degrees, Harris wins 44%; Trump share up 1 pt from 2020Trump wins 48% of voters age 45+, Harris

Prior -5.8%; revised to -5.4% German manufacturing orders bounced back in September after a dip in August and this was once again affected by large orders skewing the data. There was a significant increase in orders for other vehicle construction (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles), which was twice as high as in the previous month.

There is a pretty clear picture in the early vote in Indiana and Kansas that shows Kamala Harris running 3-4 percentage points better than Biden did in 2020. With that, we’ve seen a tick higher in Harris odds on Kalshi to 45% from 42% in the past 30 minutes. The big caveat here is that

The NYT projection shows that Republicans have 189 seats now and Democrats at 162 seats. Of the remaining key seats in contention here, Republicans now need 19 seats and Democrats needing 29 seats to almost certainly win control of the House. There’s still plenty of seats yet to be called and the margins for some

SP Negócios, São Paulo’s investment and export promotion agency, has partnered with Polkadot to foster innovation among companies in São Paulo. Driven by the growing market demand, Polkadot is increasingly positioning itself as an ally for businesses looking to grow in an innovative, secure, and transparent way. It has been sponsoring educational initiatives through Código

This follows from the much earlier call by Decision Desk HQ. From earlier: Pundits call North Carolina for TrumpUS dollar, yields and bitcoin moves all extend as North Carolina called for TrumpTrump win in North Carolina hints that other exit polls could include shy Trump supporters This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

We will get US 10-year auction results at the top of the hour. Today’s ISM services number highlights the upside risk for yields as it showed a strong economy (though with lower prices). The market is now leaning heavily towards a January pause from the FOMC. On the run 10s are trading at 4.345% at

Prior 51.4Composite PMI 50.0 vs 49.7 prelimPrior 49.6 The euro area economy kicks start Q4 in stagnation mode with heavyweights Germany and France dragging down the overall performance. A further weakening in demand conditions is to blame but just be wary that employment conditions are also seen worsening. The latter is seeing its weakest showing

With Ohio and Texas now called, it puts them on 50 seats and needing just one more for a majority. Republicans are also holding slight leads in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and could flip the seats there too. So, this is surely an inevitable outcome for them to take control of the Senate. From earlier: Republicans

Well, we didn’t need to wait long to see who won the US Presidential Election. Trump is the 47th President of the US. The Republicans won also the Senate and we are now just waiting to see if they manage to get the House to get a red sweep. As of now, the probabilities to

Fox News is projecting that Republicans have won 50 seats so far, with 51 needed for a majority. The NYT projection has Republicans at 48 seats, but Ohio looks almost certainly to be theirs with Bernie Moreno leading by 5 points against incumbent Sherrod Brown after 89% of votes in. Then, there’s also Texas that

Services PMI 52.4 vs. 50.5 expected and 50.5 prior.Composite PMI 51.0 vs. 49.7 prior. Key findings: Comment: This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.6%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC 40 +0.7%UK FTSE +0.8%Spain IBEX -0.6%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% This comes as US futures are also ramping higher on the day with Trump trades continuing to dominate the mood in broader markets. For European stocks, the worry is that Trump might come in with tariffs and invoke harsher trade conditions

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior +0.6% Looking at the details, most of the drop comes from energy prices (-1.9%). If you strip that out, producer prices were actually flat on the month in September. Breaking down the other components, there were rises in prices for durable consumer goods (+0.2%) and non-durable consumer goods (+0.2%). That is slightly offset by

The Trump trades continue to roar with Nasdaq futures also seen up 1.7% and Dow futures up 2.2% currently. Meanwhile, Russell 2000 futures are marked higher by a whopping 4.7%. It all seems pretty now but at what point does higher yields start to factor into the equation for equities? Perhaps the control for the

The cryptocurrency market is evolving rapidly, and with it, advanced financial instruments like futures and options have emerged as popular tools for traders seeking to maximize their investment strategies. While these derivatives allow for speculative trades and strategic risk management, they each have unique characteristics, pros and cons, and complexities that make them suitable for

It’s still looking like a sweep for him in all of the swing states, so he’s certainly going to feel comfortable in declaring any early victory. Georgia should be officially called shortly while Arizona is leaning Trump by a slight margin. Meanwhile, here’s the latest count in the swing states under the Rust Belt: Pennsylvania:

We are beginning to get US election results coming through, with some states being ‘called’ by pundits. Don’t pay too much attention to places that are solidly Red or Blue. For example, Harris has been declared the winner in Vermont. Which was expected. Trump has been declared the winner in Kentucky and Indiana, also expected.

Bank of Japan September meeting minutes Full text is here The Bank was walking a tightrope in this meeting, and these minutes reflect the focus on balancing internal economic recovery with global economic pressures and cautious policy communication. In summary (the minutes are pages and pages long, so check out that full text link if

Prior 57.0Composite PMI 55.2Prior 56.3 The growth momentum in Spain’s services sector weakened in October but is still a solid reading nonetheless. Both sales and demand showed improvements, contributing to the strong activity. The added good news is that jobs growth also hit a 18-month high in the latest report. HCOB notes that: “Spain’s economy

Some other poll results looking at the economy. NOTE that 31% of the voters viewed the economy as the most important issue. Conditions of the nations Economy: 5% Excellernt28% Good35% Not so good32% Poor Despite the US stock indices near all time highs and up over 20% for the broader indices and unemployment at relatively

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD has moved to new lows and is testing the lows from the last two weeks. That area comes between 1.07605 and 1.07767. A move below that level is needed to give more momentum to the sellers. A move below that level opens the door for more downside control. Conversely, bounce and traders are

Prior was 4.066%Bid to cover 2.58 vs 2.48 prior Virtually everyone thought this one would tail because of election risks but someone showed up and we got a 0.3 bps stop through. I still find it hard to believe that will undo any pre-election angst but I believe it sets up the bond market for

As of the current tally, Wisconsin has counted 88% of votes with Trump holding a 4-point lead. And he’s still holding a lead in all of the swing states that have yet to be officially called. It’s all a matter of time and with this, the only thing left to watch out for is control

The US election continues to hog all the spotlight and things will stay that way for at least another 24 hours. Trump trades are at work now as the dollar rockets higher alongside yields, stocks, and Bitcoin. The only thing left to watch now will be whether or not we will see a red sweep

Via oilprice dot com on twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +1.1mn barrelsDistillates -1.1 mn bblsGasoline -0.9 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API): It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

Here’s the latest results for the three swing states under the Rust Belt: Pennsylvania: Trump +4 (82% of votes in)Wisconsin: Trump +3 (71% of votes in)Michigan: Trump +5 (43% of votes in) With Trump also slated to take Arizona and Georgia eventually, it looks like it’s all over for Harris barring some miraculous turnaround. Don’t

Fox News has also called Pennsylvania in favour of Trump. With 93% of votes in, he is leading by 3 points there. In any case, this was inevitable and just a matter of time after the votes of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin didn’t really favour Harris whatsoever since the halfway mark here. Edison Research has come

The independent voters which account for 31% of the Georgia votes are leaning 54% to 43% for Trump. That was reverse from 2020 with Biden gaining from the independent voters.. Florida numbers are higher for Trump vs 2020 with 50% in and Trump leading 53.2% vs 45.9% in 2020. That was 51.2% to 47.9% in

AP calls North Carolina for TrumpRepublicans close in on control for US SenateGBPUSD moves down to test 50% and swing area down to 1.28449Betting markets see Trump victory as a shoo-in nowReminder: Here are some of the widely-touted Trump tradesIt’s looking more and more like a red sweepThe peso signals Mexico isn’t looking forward to

Pennsylvania: Trump +3 (59% of votes in)Wisconsin: Trump +1.6 (55% of votes in) The other key one under the Rust Belt is Michigan but the state has so far only counted 25% of votes. It is also Trump favoured at +0.6 now but with every percentage, that seems to swing around between Trump and Harris.

Latest update from the New York Times model. Trump has performed strongly, taking (or ahead in) swing states he needed (they both needed!). Can Harris still win – well, yeah, that’s what an 88% chance for Trump implies. But sheesh, 12% is not good odds. Red Sweep looks likely: It’s looking more and more like

If you recall back in 2020, betting markets went as far as placing the odds of Trump winning around 80%. So, these odds at the moment are staggering and you probably have to consider that what happened in 2020 is still in the back of everyone’s minds. In any case, what betting markets see at

The Bank of Canada meeting minutes for the October 2024 meeting. The BOC cut rates by 50 basis points at the October 23 meeting: Ahead of Bank of Canada’s October 23 rate announcement, governing council felt upside pressures on inflation will continue to decline, so policy did not need to be as restrictive.Governing council members

The pattern I’m seeing so far is very clear: Trump is doing better in rural areas while Harris is doing better in the suburbs than Biden. That said, the suburbs might be somewhat of an illusion because the mail-in votes (which skew Democrat) are usually counted first. Betting sites put Trump decidedly ahead but I

The EURUSD is continuing its move to the upside despite stronger services ISM nonmanufacturing data today. Employment moved higher as well. New orders were lower and prices paid was lower as well. Of course the election voting is ongoing with the results still hours aways starting with Georgia, one of the epicenters from 2020 election

The USDCAD moved down to test the target support at the end of the trading day yesterday at 1.3813. The low price reached 1.3817 and the price decline slowed. The pair has moved back higher on the back of the early success of the Trump team. The price has now moved up to the 200-hour

Decision Desk with the call. NC has 16 electoral votes and was (is) viewed as a key to win. Decision Desk HQ projects Trump wins North Carolina’s electoral college votes. 16 of them. Dollar update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Edison Research has just published an exit poll of Georgia: Trump wins 42% of voters under age 45, Harris wins 56%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020Trump wins 56% of voters age 45+, Harris wins 43%; Trump share up 2 pts from 2020Trump wins 59% of white voters, Harris wins 31%; Trump share up

Reuters Tankan is a monthly report whereas the Bank of Japan Tankan is quarterly (more on these two surveys below). Respondents citing worries over China and … wait for it … high inflation. November manufacturing index +5 prior +7 in October Non-manufacturing +19 in November, easing for the 5th consecutive month prior +20 Outlooks: Manufacturing

A poor report, the New Zealand economy struggled under high rates set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to combat inflation. The Bank has begun its interest rate cut cycle but it’ll take some time for that to work through the economy and into employment figures. This report: employment change fell more than expectedthe

The major US indices close near highs as the US voters go to the polls. The general rule was that stocks would benefit more from a Trump victory, but who really knows. Share of Trump Media is closing the day down -1.16% and is down -3.0% in after-hours trading at $32.83. That comes after trading

Secretary to the Australian Treasury, Dr Steven Kennedy, is giving testimony in the Australian parliament, at the Senate Budget Estimates, Economics Legislation Committee. You can view the live event here. In brief: Interest rates will come down, but not to pre-pandemic levelshousehold consumption is subduedhouseholds are rebuilding savings underlying inflation is useful for the direction

The USDCAD is moving lower in sympathy with the overall US dollar weakness ahead of the election vote and results (at least some of them) later today. The move lower was also helped by the failure to keep the upside momentum going after breaking to a new high for the year (and going back to

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 came in marginally higher at 2.4% vs 2.3% last. In their own words: he GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.4 percent on November 5, up from 2.3 percent on November 1. After recent releases

It’s the US Presidential Election Day so I wouldn’t expect the market to care about anything else. Although this week we have some key economic releases and central bank decisions, it’s really all about the US election. This week is basically divided in three phases: the pre-election noise, the election and the post-election trading. 15:00

I spoke with Reuters today about the Canadian dollar. It’s surprisingly stronger given that Trump trades are working. “We could just be seeing some position squaring. The Canadian dollar has been a heavily shorted currency,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. “The Canadian dollar is one of the clear election night trades along

UK October final services PMI 52.0 vs 51.8 prelimJapan’s largest industrial union to target a standard 6% increase in total wages – reportAUD/USD holds higher in post-RBA tradingEuropean equities lightly changed to kick start the dayWhat are the main events for today?What are the key times to watch for the US election results?Eurostoxx futures flat

A poor auction of gilts today has been compounded by a broad selloff in global fixed income following a strong US ISM services report. That’s helped to press UK 10-year yields 7 bps higher and marginally above last week’s high. The Chancellor’s October 30 budget unveiled a significant fiscal expansion, exceeding market expectations across all

The S&P 500 is up 1.0% today and it’s being helped along by some ‘Trump trades’, including shares of his social media company DJT, which are up 14%. Over in non-meme markets, the KRE regional bank ETF is up 1.3% and widely seen as a Trump trade. Shares of Albertsons, whose merger is less-likely to

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 flatGerman DAX +0.5%France CAC +0.5%UK FTSE 100 -0.1%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.2% The DAX struggled last week but rebounded on Friday and today. I don’t know if that’s about tariff risk or about the poor state of the German economy. The ECB is going to cut in December but there

The US election day will keep the markets on edge, but technically, the process should be followed. The price action and the tools will help to define the the bias, define the risk and define the targets.. In this video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD and outline the key levels

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index, a weekly survey of persistent pessimists it seems. Comes in at 86.5 prior 86.4 ANZ add: Weekly inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.6%, but the 4wk moving average fell 0.1ppt to its lowest reading since Sep 2021. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Jambo, a leading builder of web3 mobile infrastructure, today announced its partnership with Lif3, the revolutionary omni-chain DeFi Layer-1 ecosystem, to offer millions of Jambo phone users in over 120 countries, with easier access to peer-to-peer crypto payments through the Lif3 mobile app. Founded by serial entrepreneur and web3 investor Harry Yeh, Lif3’s strategic collaboration

A newswire report suggests Trump’s campaign has had discussions about declaring a victory before any official calls are made, citing sources. There is some angst about this in political circles but he did the same thing in 2020 and it didn’t accomplish anything. The report says: Trump could prematurely claim victory sometime after the first

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Attention seeking dictators, they are everywhere! Kim Jong Un fires off another ballistic missile. South Korean military with the report. These are usually targeted at the East Sea (Sea of Japan). Which is difficult for them to miss. Back in the olden days this would have been a yen positive. But everyone is jaded with

Prior was -70.4 billionGoods trade -108.7 billion vs -108.2 billion prelimExports -1.2%Imports +3.0% The deficit jumped to the highest since 2022 because of a rush to import items ahead of a feared port strike. Key Details: Exports fell on declining civilian aircraft shipments (-$1.7B)Pharmaceutical prep exports dropped $2.0BCrude oil exports declined $1.3BConsumer goods imports jumped

Prior 52.4Composite PMI 51.8 vs 51.7 prelimPrior 52.6 Services activity continues to see slowing momentum in October, with the weakest rise in business activity since November last year. Adding to that, employment conditions showed a fall for the first time this year. So, that is something that the BOE might want to take note of

Headline CPI +1.3% y/y in October, weakest level since January 2021 expected 1.4%, prior 1.6%for the m/m 0.0% Core CPI +1.8% down from 2.0% in September This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Wall Street Journal convey the info from analysts at Citi: A win by Trump, who proposes tax cuts, would likely support equities instead of goldGold fell by 8.2% in the month that followed Trump’s 2016 victoryGold is held by some as a hedge against uncertainty, has tended to struggle in the weeks following most U.S.

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar started the week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the greenback, while a blue sweep as the most

Market pricing is still showing over 100bp of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts through to the end of 2025. BRock says this is too much, citing:1. A solid economy “U.S. Q3 GDP data last week showed consumer spending is still driving overall economic growth. Average monthly job creation over the past three months

Schnabel’s event looks more likely to bring about pertinent headlines for markets: 1430 GMT / 0930 US Eastern time Keynote speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde at French Competition Authority’s 15th Anniversary Event1830 GMT / 1330 US Eastern time ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel to speak at Michael Chae Seminar on Macroeconomic Policy at Harvard

Prelim was 54.3Prior was 55.2Composite index vs 54.3 prelim (54.0 prior) The ISM services index is due at the top of the hour. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia remains gung-ho on beating inflation, unfussed by high rates given the resilient labour market: Reserve Bank of Australia leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected Full text is here, the first one is today’s decision, the second link is to the SoMP (what’s the SoMP? ,,, scroll right down

Best since Sept 2023Prior was 54.9Business activity index 57.2 vs 59.9 priorEmployment 53.0 vs 48.1 priorNew orders 57.4 vs 59.4 priorPrices paid 58.1 vs 59.4 priorSupplier deliveries 56.4 vs 52.1 priorInventories 57.2 vs 58.1 priorBacklog of orders 47.7 vs 48.3 priorNew export orders 51.7 vs 56.7 priorImports 50.2 vs 52.7 priorInventory sentiment 53.0 vs 54.0

Hundreds of millions of Americans head to the ballots today to vote for who they believe should be their next President: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. Although more than 81 million ballots have been cast early this year, most of the electorate will do so today, ultimately determining who will reside in the White House

AUD/USD bounced a little around 0.6580 to 0.6590 levels on the decision but that’s not indicative of much. The pair remains rangebound, stuck within a 19 pips range on the day. That is telling of the reaction to the RBA’s expected decision here. So, what’s the main takeaway that we can gather from their latest

We have to make forecasts but they are inherently difficultThe further out you forecast, the bigger the error bandWe use the market pricing as part of our cash rate forecastThe forecast and pricing of the current cash rate path is as good as anyBut we are prepared to move if the data suggests to do

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar started the week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the greenback, while a blue sweep as the most

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar started the week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the greenback, while a blue sweep as the most

Perhaps the best thing to do to re-live the timeline from 2020, go into the ForexLive time machine and see how we covered it. Early in the evening and before the election, betting odds initially favored Biden. However, as results came in from states like Florida and early returns in Texas, odds began to favor

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% This comes as US futures are also looking relatively muted. S&P 500 futures are up marginally by 0.1%, the same as Nasdaq futures and Dow futures. There’s not much to scrutinise with the market mood today as traders and investors are

The RBA held its cash rate steady in a more hawkish decision, though largely expected. AUD/USD was barely changed and only hovered within a 15 pips range after the statement and press conference. But the pair is extending higher now, up to 0.6618 from around 0.6590 earlier in the day. There’s not much to it

German DAX futures +0.1%French CAC 40 futures flatUK FTSE futures -0.1% S&P 500 futures are also just marginally up by 0.1% as the changes among broader markets are relatively light. The dollar is keeping mostly little changed as well but limping slightly as we look to the session ahead. The aussie is pulling higher though,

AUD little changed after hawkish RBAReserve Bank of Australia leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedReserve Bank of Australia statement due at the bottom of hour – on hold expectedEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaking Tuesday, Schnabel alsoTokyo Stock Exchange extended trading hours for 1st time in 70 years, starting today.China’s Premier Li –

Prior was -1.1 billionExports $63.88 billion vs $64.31 billion prior Imports $65.15 billion vs $65.41 billion priorTrade deficit narrows to -$1.3B from -$1.5B priorTrade surplus with US widens to $8.3B from $7.8BExports to US rose 1.6%, imports up 0.8%Energy exports -2.6% on lower crude oil pricesAircraft exports jumped 10.3% on higher US private jet shipmentsMetal/mineral

Prior 2.6% No change to the Swiss jobless rate as it continues to keep steady on the month. That being said, it has crept higher and up from the low of 1.9% seen during last year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar started the week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the greenback, while a blue sweep as the most

The pollsters are indicating that it is going to be a very tight race between Harris and Trump. And that will definitely keep markets on edge until we get to the early round of votes until midday later. The next 24 to 48 hours is potentially going to be havoc in markets, as traders and

But regardless of the closing time of the polls, different states will have different procedures in counting votes and that could see the results spill over to the next one or two days (or more). But as outlined here, the main focus will be on the key battleground states i.e. swing states once again. So,

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The parent company of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Japan Exchange Group, confirmed it extended regular trading hours by 30 minutes beginning todayfirst extension of trading hours in 70 yearsmarket will operate from 9 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. (with an hour long break for lunch) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The U.S. presidential election draws near, and investors are on high alert as the outcomes of Kamala Harris’s and Donald Trump’s contrasting economic policies could have significant ramifications for the financial markets. With key decisions looming around tax rates, regulation, energy policy, and trade, the potential for market volatility increases depending on who gets into

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 and 1.0900 levels. Considering the focus on the US election, this will keep price action more boxed in going into European trading and before we get to the election rush later in the day.

British Retail Consortium (BRC) total sales in October +0.6% y/y, weakest growth since July prior (September) +2.0%like-for-like sales +0.3% y/y (prior +1.7%) Barclaycard UK October consumer spending +0.7% y/y, also the weakest growth since July prior +1.2%prior +2.0% From the reports, in brief: Factors like budget uncertainty, delayed purchases until Black Friday, and a later

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar started the week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the greenback, while a blue sweep as the most

MUFG note conflicting influences on GBP: slower pace of interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England should support, by keeping rates higher for longer relative to other major economies But: loss of investor confidence in the Labour government’s fiscal consolidation plan could pose a downward risk (via via any ongoing selloff in gilts) Bank of

Caixin Services PMI for October comes in at 52.0 expected 50.5, prior 50.3 Composite 51.9 prior 50.3 This is the final of the China PMIs for October. Earlier: Official Non manufacturing 50.2China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October 50.3 From the report, in brief on the services result today: Business activity and new orders grew for

UA Zensen is Japan’s largest industrial trade union and represents workers mostly at small and medium-sized firms. And once again – similar to earlier this year – they are calling for at least a standard 6% increase in total wages going into the spring wage negotiations in 2025. For some context, the wage hike asked

Barclays expects the RBA to adopt a hawkish tone at its November meeting, reinforcing the message that rate cuts are unlikely in 2024. With the Australian economy operating above potential and core inflation still above target, the RBA is expected to signal a steady path for now, while providing updated economic forecasts. Key Points: Hawkish

High yield 4.152%WI level at the time of the auction 4.143%Tail 0.9% vs 6-month average of -0.2%Bid to cover 2.60X vs 6 month average of 2.57XDirects 9.6% vs 6 month average of 15.7%Indirects 70.6% vs 6 month average of 66.5%Dealers 19.75% vs 6 month average of 15.76%. Auction Grade: D+ Highlights or lowlights: The 3

The index tracks the prices of 17 of New Zealand’s major commodity exports, including dairy products, meat, wool, forestry products, and seafood. ANZ World Commodity Price Index, from the report: +1.4% m/m in October stronger prices were recorded for all major sectors excluding meat and fibre In New Zealand dollar terms +3.4% m/m as the

China’s Premier Li Qiang is addressing an Import Expo in Shanghai. Must build a stronger consensus for opening upChina will upgrade free trade zonesChina will explore free trade and investment agreements with other countries China will continue to open telecommunications, internet, healthcare, and other sectors for investment China stands ready to work with all sides

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on record as regarding two years as a reasonable time for the transmission of monetary policy into the real economy. The first rate cut from them was in August 2024. Governor Orr: Real economy is lagging reduction in interest rates, that’s a concern Anyway, the RBNZ, like central

The US treasury will auction off the three year notes at the top of the hour. The six-month averages of the major components shows: Tail: -0.2 basis pointsBid to cover: 2.57XDIrects (domestic buyers): 18.7%Indirects (international Buyers): 66.5%Dealers (they take the rest) 15.8% THe high yield last month came in at 4.13% The current 3 year

Judo Bank / S&P Global final services and composite PMIs for Australia in October 2024. The preliminary readings can be found here. In summary from the report: Services sector indicators were stronger than initial (“flash”) results, showing improved business conditions at October’s end.Key activity indicators are in expansionary territory, with signs of strengthening economic activity

Bank of America on Q3 earnings: nearly 80% of S&P 500 index have reported so farsigns that the season will remain strongconsensus EPS is now up 2% vs. where it stood as of October 1, which means its tracking +6% YoY, in line with our forecast 68%/57%/45% beat on EPS/sales/both so far, compared to the

I posted on this yesterday: US election imminent – JP Morgan says Fed to pause rate cuts on a Trump win The conclusions reached by JPM are not really news, any analyst with two brain cells to rub together can see that profligacy will lead to higher inflation and higher rates. This is not in

There are still upside risks to inflationToo early to analyse any Trump scenario before the election is doneGovernment and central bank are not in disagreement on the economic outlookWe have the right policy settings at the momentIf economy turns down by more than expected, we will be ready to act This article was written by

Credit Agricole anticipates the RBA will hold rates at this week’s meeting, with Australian inflation and activity data aligning with forecasts, supporting a continued hawkish stance relative to other G10 central banks. Despite stable inflation and moderate retail activity, the RBA is expected to maintain a neutral outlook, with rate cuts not likely until early

Previews posted: AUD traders heads up – Reserve Bank of Australia meeting underway – statement due TuesdayThe RBA meeting next week marks a year of unchanged cash rate at 4.35% – no cut until 2025Its unanimous, Reserve Bank of Australia to hold cash rate at 4.35% at next week’s meetingCredit Agricole: What we expect from

Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged and didn’t signal any change in policy is immininet. Check these out, lifted from the barrage of headlines below: Underlying inflation remains too highInflation is not expected to return sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026The labour market remains tight, and demand for labour

Legend of Arcadia (LoA), a new card-based RPG set in an expansive universe inspired by Kingdom Hearts, is bringing a community-driven operational model to Web3 gaming. With a focus on sustainable growth, LoA aims to establish itself as a leading platform by integrating blockchain technology, unique NFT mechanics, and community-centric features that foster long-term player

I suspect we’ll be hearing “wait until after the election” from many in the markets here in Asea today as a reason to sit on hands. I first heard it about two months ago! Seriously! Anyway, the calendar today features the final PMI from China then the Reserve Bank of Australia. Earlier PMIs from China

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand have begun their rate cut cycle, cutting by 75bp so far. Another cut is expected at the next meeting, which isn’t until February! economic conditions remain challenging, business is doing it toughgeopolitical tensions do really matter, key risk for the economy This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The RBA will be announcing its rate decision later tonight/tomorrow in Australia. The expectation is for no change in policy. Focus will be on what is ahead for the central bank Technically, the price high reached 0.66184 in the early Asian session. That took the price to the low of a swing area between 0.66189

The major US stock indices are closing lower to start the US election week. The Dow 30 fared the worst of the major 3 indices. The final number are showing: Dow industrial average -257.60 points or -0.61% at 41794.60S&P -16.11 points or -0.28% at 5712.69Nasdaq -59.93 points or -0.22% t 18179.98 The small cap Russell

US September factory orders -0.5% versus -0.5% expectedUS October employment trends 107.66 versus 107.58 last monthThe US treasury auctions off $58B of 3-year notes at a high yield of 4.152%OPEC survey: Output rises 190K bpd led by Libyan recoveryOPEC secretary general Al Ghais: We are very positive on demand Markets: Gold up $2 to $2737US

Crude oil futures are settling at $71.47. That is up $1.98 or 2.85%. Helping to support the price today is: Supply Concerns: OPEC delayed its planned oil output increase for December by a month, tightening supply expectations.Geopolitical Tensions: Rising tensions between Iran and Israel fueled market concerns, with reports suggesting both sides are preparing for

The next few days are some big ones for the markets and for you too as a trader in the markets. The US election is a toss-up, which given the history of the past elections will likely lead to chaos. Everything and anything can happen. If it were a sporting event, it would be considered

Today is going to be one of those synthetic Sundays when there’s nothing on the calendar with the market awaiting a key event. This key event is of course the US Presidential Election tomorrow. Today we just get some low tier data releases and the final PMIs for the Eurozone. Nothing that changes the big

It’s election week. It doesn’t get any bigger than this in US politics and polls show this will be a razor-tight race. At this time last week, Trump looked to have an edge but some polling numbers over the weekend upended that and highlighted the possibility that Harris is being underestimated. None of it leaves

Deutsche Bank is out with a look at market history around elections ahead of tomorrow’s vote. Market reactions to US elections since 2000 have been mixed – S&P 500 up in 3 cases, down in 3 by end of NovemberTreasury yields fell in 4 elections, rose in 2 The key point is that markets price

A business day after the US jobs report which showed lower NFP jobs and lower revisions but the unemployment rate remaining steady, the Conference Board Employment Trends Index is coming out marginally higher after a revised lower number last month. Prior month 108.48 revised lower to 107.58Employment Trends Index for October 107.66“The ETI was nearly

OPEC pumped 26.33 million barrels per day in October, up 195k bpd from September, according to Reuters’ influential secondary sources survey. The rise was centered on Libya, which had curtailed production during a political dispute in September. Libya is not subject to quotas. Venezuela also expanded production to the highest since 2020 while Iraq and

The world of foreign exchange is multi-variate so you never get a full grasp on what’s moving a currency on any given day. Economics always overshadows politics and the US election has been playing out in the background for months. There are certainly election trades in equities and other pockets of markets but big macro

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -13.8 The reading marks a second straight month of improvement but it’s hardly anything to shout about. A slight improvement to the current situation index makes up for this as expectations stagnated with a -3.8 reading for this month. Sentix also warns that “no positive turnaround scenario can be derived” from the latest data.

There are some challenges but the picture is not as negative as some make it to beThe world economy is doing wellWe are very positive on demand both in the short and long-termPeak demand is not going to happen, the world keeps on growing His comments come after the bloc decided to delay the planned

The USD is lower to start the trading week (helped by the Pres. Polls over the weekend). The moves in the 3 major currency pairs did move to corresponding technical targets and stalled. EURUSD: For the EURUSD, it move up to test the 50% midpoint of the move up from April 2024 low and the

Fundamental Overview Crude oil opened the day with a positive gap today following the weekend news of OPEC+ delaying the December production hike. In the big picture, central bank easing generally leads the manufacturing cycle, so we can expect global growth to pick up and support the crude oil market. One risk that might be

The influential Selzer poll out of Iowa showed a Harris lead over the weekend. That is not supposed to happen, and led to the USD moviing lower on the news. The US yields are lower. The US stocks are trading mixed (Dow modestly lower, S&P and Nasdaq modestly higher). European stocks are mostly higher. 10

Prior month: -0.2% (revised to -0.8%)Factory goods orders ex transportation +0.1% vs -0.1% prior (revised to -0.2%)Durable goods orders -0.7% vs -0.8% preliminary. Last month was -0.8%Durable goods ex transportation +0.5% vs +0.4% preliminary. Last month +0.6%Durable goods ex defense -1.1% versus -1.1% preliminary. Last month -1.3%Durable goods nondefense capital goods orders ex-air +0.7% versus

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

All eyes will be on the United States on Tuesday, 5 November 2024, as the world awaits the outcome of the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. With the countdown clock to the 2024 US elections beginning to tick down towards polling day, markets are starting to brace themselves for what is yet to

The move here is to largely deal with “hidden debt” or what is intricately known as debt arising from local government financing vehicles (LGFV). These are off-balance sheet debt that are incurred by local governments to finance big projects and infrastructure. For some context, local governments in the past were not allowed to sell bonds

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 45 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 118 bps ECB: 22 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 120 bps BoE: 31 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 93 bps BoC: 35 bps (57% probability of

The dollar opened with a gap lower today before keeping lower since Asia trading. The needle hasn’t really moved since we got to European morning trade, with market players waiting on potentially more developments in the polls later in US. In the case of USD/JPY, the pair is sticking closer to 152.00 after having earlier

The USDCAD broke higher at the end of last week and in the process extended above high from August at 1.39458. The high price reached 1.3958 and closed the week at 1.39484. However, after the weekend election poll news, yields moved lower, the USD moved lower and the USDCAD gapped down as well. That took

Oil is off to a strong start to the week. It gapped 80-cents higher at the Asian open and has continued higher. It’s up $1.91 to $71.40, which is the highest since October 25. The main driver is the OPEC+ decision to extend voluntary production curbs for an additional month. Some oil was scheduled to

Prior 44.6 No change to the initial estimate as the French manufacturing sector stays in contraction territory. New orders observed an accelerated pace of decline with employment conditions also starting to be hit harder. The latter will be a concern to watch if it becomes more widespread in the months ahead, and not just for

China Commerce Minister met with Australia’s Trade Minister on Sunday China readout comment: China hopes Australia will continue to improve its business environment and treat Chinese companies fairly and equitably Right back at ya buddy! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX flatFrance CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% That opposed to the more decent moves in FX and bonds, but even that hasn’t changed much since Asia. The overall mood is rather tentative now with S&P 500 futures also losing a little ground to be up marginally by 0.1%.

I posted back in October the dates of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC), November 4 to 8. The NPC is the country’s highest legislative body, serving as a key component of its government structure. It convenes annually to set national policy, approve budgets, and pass laws. In addition, the NPC formally elects leaders, such as

With its recent launch, Xlence is quickly positioning itself as a promising option in the online trading world. This new platform emphasizes transparency, education, and accessibility, aiming to make trading a simpler and more empowering experience for users. In a recent announcement, Xlence laid out its mission to provide traders with a supportive and versatile

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The major US stock indices are moving lower from the get-go led by the NASDAQ index which is down -0.64%. The price opened at 18220, and is currently trading 100 points lower at 18120. A snapshot of the major indices currently shows: Dow industrial average -174.39 points or -0.41% at 41877.80S&P -16.53 points or -0.29%

After a bit of a lackluster start to the session in Europe, we’re starting to see things pick up again now nearing US trading. The dollar opened with a gap lower with focus on the US election tomorrow and is now starting to track back to the lows for the day. USD/JPY is back down

Final Manufacturing PMI 43.0 vs. 42.6 expected and 40.6 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 43.0 (Sep: 40.6). 3-month high. HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 42.8 (Sep: 41.3). 2-month high. Deeper cuts to output prices signalled amid strong competition. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg

Headlines: Dollar stays pinned down alongside yields ahead of US tradingDollar on the backfoot with focus on the US election tomorrowTreasury yields checked back after change in US election odds since the weekendWeekly update on interest rate expectationsEurozone November Sentix investor confidence -12.8 vs -12.5 expectedEurozone October final manufacturing PMI 46.0 vs 45.9 prelimGermany October

Prior 53.0 Spain continues to be the shining light for Europe and is a contrast to Germany. Looking at the details here, both production and new orders both rose sharply, which encouraged greater purchasing and recruitment activity amongst firms. HCOB notes that: “It was a strong start to the final quarter for Spain’s manufacturing sector.

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.1% European indices are holding more tentative, following the gains on Friday last week. Investors will be watchful of the developments in the US with the election coming up tomorrow. S&P 500 futures are holding slightly more optimistic though, up 0.3% but owing much to tech shares. Dow futures

Australian-founded broker FP Markets further cemented its position as a market leader, winning ‘Most Trusted Broker – Global’, ‘Broker of the Year – Asia’, and ‘Fastest Growing Broker – LATAM’ at the inaugural Finance Magnates Annual Award (FMAA) Gala. The event was held on Wednesday, 23 October, at the Lemon Park Venue in Nicosia, Cyprus.

US election imminent – JP Morgan says Fed to pause rate cuts on a Trump winChina’s annual parliament is underway – expected to approve more fiscal stimulus measuresUSD/JPY back under 152.00 – prospect of market volatility a headwind for yen carry tradeEuropean Central Bank speakers on Monday include Patsalides, Elderson, Buch, McCaulAbout that US$3000 gold

Manufacturing PMI 46.9 vs. 48.6 expected and 48.3 prior. Key findings: Sharper decline in new orders signalled amid subdued export sales. Stocks of purchases depleted at one of the sharpest rates on record. Input and output prices fall. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Italy’s manufacturing

Prior 45.0 The headline reading is a 5-month high with the output reading also improving to a 2-month high. A slight improvement in fortunes in Germany helped but the real carry is Spain, with manufacturing activity there seen at a 32-month high. That being said, overall production and new orders continue to post declines albeit

The US jobs report was about ‘storms and strikes’ says Goldman Sachs. The numbers ICYMI: US October non-farm payrolls +12K vs +113K expectedForexlive Americas FX news wrap: The worst non-farm payrolls reading since 2020 Goldman Sachs, in brief: Strikes and storms were a weight on the October employment reportThe data is an argument for a

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 level. The figure level isn’t one that holds any technical significance but the expiries could well help to box in price action in the session ahead. That without much fresh headlines

You all set for the US election? In the interests of ‘what to expect’, this summary of an interview with an analyst at JP Mrgan Asset Management on scenarios under a Harris and Trump win. Expects higher rates under Trump, citing more expansionary fiscal policy: “If you have a Republican sweep with the Trump victory,

Deribit, the world’s premier Bitcoin and Ethereum options exchange, in partnership with SignalPlus, a leading options trading dashboard and analytics hub, is excited to unveil the second edition of the Winter Trading Competition 2024. This year’s competition offers participants a $200,000 USDC prize pool, along with various prizes such as iPhones, PlayStation 5s, and other

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, gold got hit by some strong selling pressure following the US Jobless Claims and the US Core PCE report. The data keeps on showing that the US economy is doing pretty good, and we even saw some acceleration in activity in other data points. The data and the proximity to the

The snapshot of the dollar pairs above shows the greenback down across the board, after opening with a gap lower. Ignore the high for USD/JPY there as that is likely an error on the sheet. My chart has it at 152.54 and that’s the one I’m following. In any case, the dollar is down as

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads up 0.3% m/m in October 2024 prior revised from +1.6% to +2.3% This indicator showing a still steady to strong labour market (like official figures do. Earlier we had a rising inflation indicator: Australian October Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge +0.3% m/m (prior +0.1%) The Reserve Bank of Australia is meeting today

With Japan markets closed earlier, Treasuries are finally now getting the day started and we’re seeing yields marked down lower. That isn’t a surprise given how the dollar reacted with the bond market arguably being the lead mover. 10-year yields are down some 7 bps to 4.31% currently, getting checked back after a surging turnaround

The Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge is a privately surveyed inflation indicator. it was the ‘go to’ for a guide to monthly inflation data for Australia prior to the Australian Bureau of Statistics introducing their monthly measure. For October 2024: +0.3% m/m (prior +0.1%)+3.0% y/y (prior +2.6%) The jump will not be welcome news to the

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%. The statement is due at 2.30 pm Sydney time on Tuesday, November 5, 2024: 0330 GMT2230 US Eastern time (Monday evening) Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock press conference will follow an hour later As far as the tone of

Weekend news: OPEC+ agrees to delay December oil output increase In summery from the cartel’s statement: Eight OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman) extended their November 2023 voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day through December 2024.The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will oversee compliance, with a

The dollar opened with a gap lower and then nudged down further in Asia Pacific trading today. It’s all about the US election and things have certainly heated up since the weekend, with a neck and neck race expected all of a sudden; if you are to believe the polls that is. Harris is seemingly

OIl prices have gapped higher as futures reopen for the week. OPEC have delayed an output increase (weekend news – see link below for more): — Weekend news of note: OPEC+ agrees to delay December oil output increaseFinal New York Times poll shows razor-tight Presidential raceHarris odds jump further after influential Iowa poll shows her

A note from Goldman Sachs, this from late last week. Analsysts at the firm are looking for a rise to US$3000 by the end of 2025. GS on rate cuts: “As an asset that doesn’t offer any yield, it typically becomes less attractive to investors when interest rates are higher, and it’s usually more desirable

From late Friday ICYMI – a Pentagon statement said the US will deploy B-52 bombers, fighter jets, refueling aircraft and Navy destroyers to the Middle East. The readjustment of military assets comes as the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group prepares to leave the region. The US provided a gratis heads up to Iran: “Should Iran,

The US dollar has been under pressure during the session pretty much across the board. US political news from the weekend seems to be the suspect for the weak dollar: USD weaker to open the new forex week – election polls the culprit The yen has also benefitted from rising volatilies, the VIX was above

News from late last week that UBS Asset Management has debuted a USD Money Market Investment Fund Token Represents latest move into blockchain-based financial productsPart of broader UBS Tokenize initiativeFollows successful digital bond repo transaction in November 2023 More: Fund built on Ethereum blockchain technologyBuilds on UBS’s prior tokenization projects including CNH200M digital structured notesUBS

Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today: Yen liquidity will be curtailed somewhat (New Zealand, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong are all open tough)Japanese stock exchanges are closedNo US Treasuries physical trading today The holiday is for Sports Day. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

None of these look very promising for comments pertinent to markets and trades. Times are in GMT / US Eastern time: 0830/0430 ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus Christodoulos Patsalides speak at credit risk conference in Nicosia on current challenges in banking sector1230/0830 Keynote speech by ECB Board Member

We haven’t had the US election yet, that’s on Tuesday (local time),. For clarity, this is about a different country, via AP (link for more). Moldova’s pro-Western President Maia Sandu has won a second term in office in a pivotal presidential runoff against a Russia-friendly opponent, in a race that was overshadowed by claims of

There are only three certainties in life: deathtaxessomeone, somewhere, will have a neat and simple narrative to explain all movements in financial markets Here is my contribution to #3 today – the USD is weaker to kick off the new week due to the election news hitting the headlines this weekend. Mainly the reported surge

Bank of America are bullish crude over the next month futures contract roll: overweight Brent, gasoline, gasoil over a one-month horizon Cite OPEC withholding output acknowledge mile surplus in global supplythe risk os US hard landing has recededstill concerns over Chinese demand Over 3 – 6 months BoA see weakening of global institutions (an upside

Tha latest RBNZ Financial Stability Report has been published by the Bank. The headlines crossing news outlets from the report are on financial; stability. For example: Geopolitical tensions highlighted as risk to financial stabilityConcern about geopolitical tension has been increasing recently, potential impacts from geopolitical risks cannot be underestimated There is a LOT more to

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week. As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, some

Not a lot on the data agenda to move major FX today, some Australian data: This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next

OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it will delay the planned December voluntary output increase by one month. Last week there was a report that this was on the table so it’s not a big surprise. If anything, the oil market could be disappointed that it wasn’t extended for more than a month. I expect any

The Iowa poll late yesterday rattled betting markets and gave Kamala Harris a lift but the latest set of number from the New York Times/Siena may move things in the other direciton. That’s because it showed a tied race in Pennsylvania after previously giving Harris a four-point lead. Here are the highlights: Michigan: Trump +1Pennsylvania:

APPL stock outlook: Time to sell and watch for VWAP reaction at $205 Apple Inc. (AAPL) has long been a shining star in the stock market, winning the hearts of investors and traders alike. But even the best stocks need a breather, and recent price action hints that now might be the time to shift

Here the latest odds on betting sites for the Presidential election: PredictIt – tiedKalshi 55% Trump, 45% Harris (from as wide as 65-35)Polymarket 59% Trump, 41% HarrisBetting sites around 58 Trump, 42% Harris Now there should be some kind of arb there but I don’t think it’s wise, and definitely don’t do what this French

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Japan on holiday.Tuesday: China Caixin Services PMI, RBA Policy Decision, Canada Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI, BoC Meeting Minutes, New Zealand Labour Market report, US Presidential Election.Wednesday: Eurozone PPI.Thursday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, Eurozone Retail Sales, BoE Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims, FOMC Policy Decision.Friday: Canada Labour Market report, US University

Earlier I wrote a post highlighting why Presidential betting odds have tightened. Well, in the last hour they’ve tightened further and it’s from a somewhat shocking place — Iowa. It was once a swing state but Trump won it by a large margin in 2016 and 2020. It’s largely been abandoned by the Harris campaign.

Bitcoin price forecast: on track for another ATH test, but watch these levels If you’re riding the Bitcoin wave, hang tight—things are getting interesting. As BTC/USD keeps testing significant levels, traders and investors are on edge, waiting to see if Bitcoin has what it takes to revisit its all-time high (ATH). With technical analysis pointing

Crude oil price outlook: key levels to watch amid bearish control If you’re tracking the crude oil market, buckle up—things are heating up, and not just on the charts. As the price of light crude (CL1!) dances around some serious technical levels, traders and investors alike are on high alert. The bearish vibe is alive

Mon: Japanese Holiday: Culture Day. Eurogroup Meeting, EZ Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct), Sentix (Nov), US Employment Trends (Oct), Factory Orders (Sep), Australian Composite/Services PMI Final (Oct)Tue: US Election. RBA Policy Announcement; BoC Minutes (Oct), RBNZ FSR; Chinese Caixin Services PMI Final (Oct), Swiss Unemployment (Oct), UK Composite/Services PMI Final (Oct), US Composite/Services PMI Final (Oct),

EURUSD: GBPUSD: USDJPY: USDCHF: AUDUSD: NZDUSD: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US October non-farm payrolls +12K vs +113K expectedComment from BLS on the US HurricanesUS ISM October manufacturing PMI 46.5 vs 47.6 expectedS&P Global October Canada manufacturing PM 51.1 vs 50.4 priorBaker Hughes Oil rigs 479 down -1 on the weekUS construction spending for September 0.1% versus 0.0% expectedAtlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 growth

Closing changes for the day: S&P 500 +0.4%Nasdaq Comp +0.8%Russell 2000 +0.6%DJIA +0.7%Toronto TSX Comp +0.4% On the week: S&P 500 -1.4%Nasdaq Comp-1.5%Russell 2000 flatDJIA -0.2%Toronto TSX Comp -0.8% That’s two weeks of declines following a six-week rally. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There was a popular theory among central bankers coming out of the post-covid inflation shock: That the world had changed. The overwhelming line of thought is that we would never get back to ZIRP or negative interest rates and that the neutral rate was higher. I’ve yet to hear a compelling reason for why that

The Canadian dollar is in a tough spot. The US dollar rose 15 pips against the loonie today to 1.3950, which is the first time at that level since 2022. The next level to watch is 1.3978, as a rise above that level would be the highest since the pandemic. And other than a brief

The US dollar is broadly lower in the aftermath of the non-farm payrolls report and it’s not just because the headline was soft at +12K versus +113K expected. That could be explained away by hurricane impacts and strikes. The kicker is that the prior two months were revised by a net 112K jobs, which brings

Some of the biggest companies were beaten up on Halloween, with Microsoft and Nvidia falling 5.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Closing changes: S&P 500 -108 points or -1.9%Nasdaq Comp -2.8%Russell 2000 -1.2%DJIA -0.8%Toronto TSX Comp -1.3% Earnings from Amazon, Apple and Intel are coming up after the bell. This article was written by Adam Button at

Prior was +254K (revised to +223K)Two-month net revision:-112KUnemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.1% priorUnrounded unemployment rate: 4.145% vs 4.0510% priorParticipation rate: 62.6% vs 62.7% priorPrivate payrolls +12K vs +223K priorPrior private payrolls +223K revised to +223KU6 underemployment rate: 7.7% vs 7.7% prior (unchanged)Average hourly earnings: +0.4% vs +0.4% priorPrior avg hourly earnings: +0.5% (unrevised)Average hourly earnings

The US jobs report has come and gone, with hurricanes and strikes influencing the number. You can find out the details HERE. What has happened technically. In the video above, I outline the key technical levels in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD and explain why. THe USD is lower but will that trend

The weekly Baker Hughes rig cuts for the week are showing: Oil rigs 479 down -1Gas rigs 102 up +1Total rigs unchanged at 585. The price of crude oil is traing up $0.69 at $69.95 on the day. Looking at the hourly chart, the low today at $69.68 has extended back down test the 200

The AUDUSD is lower on the week, but since bottoming on Wednesday, the price has moved up and down. IN the process, the price has seen the price move above and below the 61.8% of the move up from the August low at 0.6575. The price over the last day or so has also moved

U.S. efforts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have failed, partly due to a “unrealistic” U.S. proposal and Israel’s insistence on enforcing a truce directly.With no viable proposal ahead of the U.S. presidential election, sources close to Hezbollah and diplomats fear the conflict may persist for months.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office declined

Prior was 50.4new business rose marginallyUnderpinning growth in October was a solid rise in manufacturing productionWith output rising at a noticeably faster pace than new work manufacturers added to their stocks of finished goods This report is rarely a market mover for the loonie but there is some good news here. Commenting on the latest

Midnight Evergreen Technologies, Inc. (Midnight) dares to reimagine the role of an AA game publisher, with a mission to fundamentally reshape how we play together. Midnight is building The Evergreen, the first (of-its-kind) publishing platform designed as a deconstructed, composable MMORPG, delivering immersive, cross-genre experiences that seamlessly span across various platforms, pushing the boundaries of

Prices paid 54.8 vs 48.5 expected (48.3 prior) — highest since MayEmployment 44.4 vs 43.9 prior New orders 47.1 vs 46.1 prior Production 46.2 vs 49.8 prior Supplier deliveries 52.0 vs 52.2 prior Inventories 42.6 vs 43.9 prior Backlog of orders 42.3 vs 44.1 prior New export orders 45.5 vs 45.3 prior Imports 48.3 vs

The USDCHF moved lower after the US jobs report but held above support near 0.8632 (the low reached 0.86385 and bounced). The move back higher has now taken the price back above the 100/200 hour MAs which are near converged near 0.8661. The price has moved to a new high for the day at 0.86937,

The USDCAD has been trending higher and higher, but the momentum has been slowing. One catalyst has been key resistance at the 2024 high. That level was reached back in August at 1.39458 and the high prices this week have stalled just short of those levels. That has put a ceiling on the topside. Of

Manufacturing PMI from Japan, final for October 2024: preliminary was 49.0prior 49.7 more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for the fourth quarter fell to 2.3% from 2.7% in the initial release yesterday. Of note is that the third quarter estimate from the Atlanta Fed’s model was spot on at 2.8%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in

Chinese officials continue to make moves that highlight an eagerness to boost equity markets. The latest is from the Chinese Commerce Ministry: Adjusts lookup period for foreign investors to 12 months from 3 yearsWill allow foreign investors to carry out strategic investment in the form of tender offersLowest asset requirements for foreign investors who are

A 7% rise in Amazon shares after earnings is helping to shore up equity market sentiment following a rout yesterday. S&P 500 futures are up 25 points following a 108 point decline yesterday. Amazon reported a big beat on revenue and earnings. That’s counterbalanced somewhat by Apple, which is down 1.5% premarket. On the economic

US 10-year yields traded as low as 4.22% after non-farm payrolls but have rebounded to 4.32%. It’s tough to say what’s driven the reversal but here is a stab at it: The non-farm payroll report was skewed by the hurricanes and strikes and the market thinks the jobs maket is goodISM prices paid made a

The election is going to dominate early November trading so making moves based on seasonals is unwise. That said, it’s useful to keep them in mind as the dust settles. November is the best month for USD/JPYBest month for the NasdaqThird-best month for the US dollarThe November through February is strong for goldSecond-best month for

BoJ should not raise interest rates for at least half a year.Necessary to eventually normalise monetary policy.Monetary policy should not be used to manipulate currency rates.Effects of currency interventions only have short-term effects. These are just token remarks and they are not important for the market even though he’s right on everything. This article was

Although the major indices are higher to start the new trading day helped by US employment report which was neither too strong or too weak, the indices for the trading week are lower. For the NASDAQ index, its seven week win streak is on pace to be broken. All good things have to end. A

Markets trade cautiously into the US NFP reportUK October final manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs. 50.3 prelimJapan opposition party chief: BoJ should not raise interest rates for at least half a yearSwitzerland October manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 49.8 expectedIsrael at ‘high level of readiness’ for Iranian attack – reportSwiss October retail sales 2.2% vs. 2.5% y/y

ICYMI, from the Bank of Japan on Thursday: BOJ governor Ueda comments on phrasing of needing time to scrutinise market risksBOJ governor Ueda: Uncertainties surrounding Japan’s economy, prices remain highBOJ governor Ueda: Will pay attention to upside risks to prices from weak yenBOJ governor Ueda: It is possible that unforeseen negative effects could emerge with

CreationNetwork.ai, a groundbreaking digital platform, today announces its public launch, redefining digital engagement for businesses, content creators, and influencers. As an all-in-one solution for content creation, e-commerce, social media management, and digital marketing, CreationNetwork.ai combines 22+ proprietary AI-powered tools and 29+ platform integrations to deliver the most extensive digital ecosystem available. Empowering Digital Transformation with

📊 Sector Overview: Tech Rebound and Consumer Electronics Decline The stock market is abuzz today with notable divergences across sectors. The technology sector is seeing a resurgence, driven by gains in major stocks such as Microsoft (MSFT), which is up by 0.80%, showcasing investor confidence amid recent tech downturns. Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) faces a setback,

Final Manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs. 50.3 expected and 51.5 prior. Key findings: Manufacturing PMI at 49.9 in October.Reduced new order intakes rein in output growth. Input price inflation eases sharply. Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “UK manufacturing started the final quarter of the year on an uncertain footing amid speculation on

Retail Sales Y/Y 2.2% vs. 2.5% expected and 3.2% prior.Retail Sales M/M -0.5% vs. 0.4% prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The October employment report is due from the US on Friday 4 October 2024 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1230 GMT. Adam had a preview posted earlier: October non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Hurricane and strike effects in focus And eyes are on the report for potential pause impact on the Federal Open Market

Justin is away for today. This is my sad imitation of his awesome option expiry post 😉 Justin will be back on Monday. EUR/USD 1.0900 (EUR1.1bn), 1.0840 (EUR863m) USD/CAD 1.3940 (US$693m), 1.3885 (US$650m), 1.3900 (US$457m) GBP/USD 1.2900 (GBP638m), 1.2850 (GBP600.4m), 1.2800 (GBP490m) AUD/USD 0.6700 (AUD451m) NZD/USD 0.6100 (NZD720m) USD/CNY 7.1500 ($854m) EUR/GBP 0.8340 (EUR719m), 0.8400

Prior month -0.1% revised to +0.1%US construction spending for September x.x% versus 0.0% expectedConstruction spending 4.6% YoY vs 4.1% last month Private Construction: Spending at an annual rate of $1,653.6 billion, virtually unchanged from August.Residential Construction: $913.6 billion, up 0.2% from August. Last month -0.3%. Nonresidential Construction: $740.0 billion, down 0.1% from August. Last month

Why it’s important? In the Asian session, Eamonn published the range of estimates for today’s US NFP report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although

Prelim was 47.8Prior was 47.3Fourth straight month below the 50.0 expansion markElection uncertainty weighing on new orders, the report saysHurricane disruptions hitting supply chainsInput cost inflation at lowest since November 2023 Comments from S&P Global’s Chris Williamson highlight particular weakness in investment goods orders. He notes potential upside after election uncertainty clears, but warns of

Prior 49.9 The rate cuts did help the manufacturing sentiment to recover from the very low levels seen in the past couple of years, but inflation is falling pretty fast so the SNB will need to adress that. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Back in the day, a collegue called today “Unenjoyment Day” instead of ‘Unemployment Day” Volatility is higher than normal. Risk is higher. There are a lot of pieces to the puzzle that could whip the market around. The day is starting with stocks higher (Nasdaq up 85 and S&P up 20.55 points) and the yields

It’s non-farm payrolls Friday but it’s a tough one. Aside from the hurricane and strike skews in the jobs report, it’s coming just ahead of the US election and that’s making it tough to lean into any position. I wrote a non-farm payrolls preview yesterday and that main takeaway is that seasonals point to a

Overall, it wouldn’t have been a pretty slow session if it wasn’t for the Swiss Franc selloff following the big miss in the Swiss CPI report. The market should now start to look for a 50 bps cut from the SNB in December as inflation is much lower than their latest forecasts which saw the

From our glossary; The ‘blackout’ policy from the Federal Reserve limits the extent to which Federal Open Market Committee participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews. The period begins the two Saturdays preceding a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. So, while Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan is speaking, giving

ICYMI, from the Bank of Japan on Thursday: BOJ governor Ueda comments on phrasing of needing time to scrutinise market risksBOJ governor Ueda: Uncertainties surrounding Japan’s economy, prices remain highBOJ governor Ueda: Will pay attention to upside risks to prices from weak yenBOJ governor Ueda: It is possible that unforeseen negative effects could emerge with

Hurricanes Helene and Milton Hurricane Helene made landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast on September 26, 2024, and then tracked north into several other states. This was before the October reference periods for both the household and establishment surveys. Hurricane Milton struck Florida on October 9, 2024, during the reference periods for both surveys. Prior to

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.7%Nationwide house prices y/y +2.4% vs +2.8% expectedPrior +3.2% Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said: “The price of a typical UK home increased by 2.4% year on year in October, though this represented a modest slowdown from the 3.2% pace recorded the previous month. House prices rose by 0.1% month

The Times of Israel reports that Israel is at a “high level of readiness” as it awaits a potential response from Iran to its airstrikes last week. This comes from CNN who got the report from a military source. “The military source told CNN that Israel’s strikes created a dilemma for Tehran since it diminished

Crude oil is settling at $69.26. That is up $0.65 or 0.95%. Looking at the daily chart, the price yesterday moved to a swing area between $66.76 and $67.69 and stalled Soon after the settlement, there has been a report that Iran is pairing a major retaliatory strike from Iraq. The price is now trading

Flipster, a global crypto derivatives exchange, has announced a collaboration with BNB Chain, a community-driven blockchain ecosystem, to offer fee-free withdrawals, aiming to democratize access to cryptocurrency trading. This collaboration builds on Flipster’s existing zero-fee trading model, aligning with both Flipster and BNB Chain’s shared mission to make cryptocurrency trading more user-friendly and cost-effective. By

Prior +0.8%CPI m/m -0.1% vs -0.3% expectedPrior m/m 0.0%Core CPI Y/Y +0.8% vs +1.0% prior. That’s a big miss and it further reinforces the need for the SNB to move faster on cuts. The market will likely favour a 50 bps cut for December now. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

If rise in minimum wage continues, it could push up services prices.Recent data shows labour conditions tightening more for permanent workers than that for part-time workers. This trend is seen broadening. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

FX option expiries for 01 November 2024 at the 10am New York cutStock market based model shows a nearly 70% chance of who will win the US electionHeads up for US and Canada clocks changing this weekend – goodbye daylight savingDallas Fed’s Logan is speaking on Friday – won’t mention the economy or monetary policyChina

We don’t have much today on the agenda for the European session as the Swiss CPI is going to be the only highlight. In the American session, we get the two biggest data releases of the month as we get the US NFP and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Overall, I don’t think that the data

I posted the headline on this yesterday: Goldman Sachs forecasts Bank of England to hold rates at Dec meeting (vs. prior 25bp cut) But the Bank of Japan kept me tiede up and I did;t get a chance to add in a bit more. Here we go: GS expect a 25bp rate cut from Bank

A heads up for those trading US markets. If you are offshore from the US or Canada you may need to adjust your trading times. For Sydney in Australia, for example, NYSE RTH hours will begin at 1.30 am local time, Tuesday to Saturday. Yeah, I know. You’re welcome 😉 This article was written by

Australia PPI (Q3) +0.9% q/q expected 0.7%, prior 1.0% For the y/y +3.9% prior +4.8% The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures a change in input prices of raw, semi-finished or finished goods and services. If input costs rise, some will be absorbed by the producer and some passed on to the consumer. Conversely, if input

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Reuters poll of economists finds: RBA on hold in November and December All 30 economists in the poll expected the RBA to hold at 4.35% at the November 4-5 meetingAll but one expect a hold at the December meeting 20 of 29, expected a 25 basis point cut in February 8 predict no change1 sees

Tax increases in the budget were necessaryTax increases were necessary, and have put UK finances on a stable trajectory.Vows fiscal stability. The review of the budget now that the dust has settled The UK’s 2024 budget analysis raises concerns about lower growth and higher interest rates. Labour’s plan include significant borrowing and spending. It includes

Senior IMF official: China’s property sector problems have not been addressed in a comprehensive way, leading to consumer confidence plummeting.The risk of deflation in China has increased, which hurts Asian countries that must compete with China’s falling export prices.Any kind of political uncertainty has a bearing on sentiment and economic activity, when asked about Japan’s

Its not my model. I’m posting it for info. If you don’t like the post, feel free to … chill out a bit. This is from Mark Hulbert at Market Watch: This stock-market prediction model is not complicated. It exploits the historical tendency for the incumbent political party’s chance of electoral victory to reflect the

Crude oil settles at $69.26Iran is preparing a major retaliatory strike – reportOctober non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Hurricane and strike effects in focusMawari Announces Node Sale to Bring Immersive Content to the WorldEuropean indices close lower. German DAX and France’s CAC down 1%UK Chancellor Reeves: Tax increases in budget were necessaryStarmer spokesman: We

On Wednesday we had Q3 inflation data from Australia: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Australian headline CPI dips into target band (but …) After the data the Commonwealth Bank of Australia changed its forecast for Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts. Analysts at the bank had been expecting a December rate cut, but pushed it

The S&P 500 touched a session low, down 96 points or 1.6%. The Nasdaq is hurting worse, down 2.6%. Worryingly, some of the highest flyers are being hit hardest today: MSFT -5.6%NVDA -4.7%META -4.6%$AMD -3% (after a 10% decline yesterday)SOXX semiconductor ETF -4.4%TSLA -2.6%GOOG -1.7% and has nearly closed yesterday’s earnings gap up There are

UBS global wealth management has a target for the S&P 500 at 6600 by the end of 2025. Analysts there argue for the continued rally citing: continued growth in AI-related capex reported by all three tech giants supports the positive structural trendbest opportunities in AI-linked semiconductors and US megacapscombination of solid growth and Fed rate

Barclays are forecasting a higher US dollar if Trump wins the US election say that the currencies likely to weaken the most against a stronger uSD are AsianBarclays highlight the Korean won, Thai baht & China’s yuanBarclays cite tariffs, heightened tension with China This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand Building Permits for September 2024: +2.6% m/m prior revised to -5.2%, from -5.3% For the y/y +1.6% *** Building consents data in New Zealand tracks the number and value of construction projects approved by councils. This includes residential, commercial, and industrial builds. The data is used in helping to gauge economic health, housing

MUFG say they are expecting a Bank of Japan rate hike sooner than the market is, but have shifted their December forecast to January next year. Analysts cite the political instability in Japan for the change. MUFG do drop a caveat in, though, saying a December rate hike is a possibility if JPY falls sharply

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Monetary policy falls under jurisdiction of BOJ, no comment on govt’s view on its decisionExpect BOJ to conduct appropriate monetary policy to sustainably, stably hit its price target, working closely with govt This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian home loans value (September 2024) -0.3% expected +1.0%, prior +2.1% Owner-occupier loan value +0.1% prior +2.4% Investor loan value -1.0% prior +1.8% *** Also data for Household spending +0.4% m/m in September prior +0.2% +1.3% y/y prior +2.7% *** AUD/USD little changed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

more to come ** Earlier this week we had the the official PMIs, showing slight improvement for manufacturing: China officeial PMI data: October Manufacturing 50.1 (expected 50.0) China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Judo Bank / S&P Global final manufacturing PMI for October 2024 in Australia comes in at 47.3. Another month in contraction. prior 46.7the preliminary was 46.6 In summary from the report: Trading Conditions: Improved toward the end of October but remain weak historically, with gradual headcount reductions continuing. Output & New Orders: Increased slightly from

Iran is preparing a major retaliatory strike against Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the US election, according to two sources cited by Axios. Oil has spiked higher on the report. There was a similar report yesterday but from a less-credible source. The latest report is the first to highlight that

The broader indices are trading to new session lows: S&P index is down -93 points or -1.60% at 5720.40NASDAQ index is down -473 points or -2.55% at 18132.97. Looking at the NASDAQ index, it is trading above and below key support near 18146.61. The price is just below the level now and if the momentum

Another PMI from China is due today. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October. China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin and research firm Markit / S&P Global. The official PMI

Retail sales and spending numbers have shown a strong US consumer and Amazon backed that up with a strong quarter. EPS 1.43 vs 1.14 estNet income 15.3B vs 12.24B estSales 158.9B vs 157.2B estSees Q4 net sales 181.5B to 188.5B Shares have jumped $10 to $198 on the results, which would put it at the

USD/CAD stalled out today right at the August high of 1.3946. A break above it would have been the highest since 2022 and not far off the highest since 2020. The pair is has climbed relentlessly since the final week of September as the Canadian economic outlook darkened and US economic data soundly beat expectations.

Adjusted EPS $1.64 vs $1.60 estEPS of 0.97 hurt by one-time EU chargeNet sales $94.93B vs $94.58B est (up 6% y/y)iPhone net sales $46.22B vs $45.47B est Shares are down about 1% after hours and fell 2% today. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Coming into today, the main US stock market indexes looked like they would be climbing for the sixth straight month and 11 of the past 12. Instead, heavy selling hit and erased the monthly gains and more. As a result: S&P 500 -1.0%Nasdaq Comp -0.5%Russell 2000 -1.2%DJIA -1.3%Toronto TSX Comp +0.6% Seasonally, November and December

Consensus estimate +113K Estimate range +0K (ABN AMRO) to +200K (DBS Bank)September was +254K Private consensus +90K versus +223K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% priorPrior unrounded unemployment rate 4.0510%Prior participation rate 62.7%Prior underemployment U6 7.7% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.0% versus +4.0% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.4% priorAvg weekly

🌐 Tech Sector Takes a Hit The tech sector is seeing significant declines today, primarily driven by a notable drop in Microsoft (MSFT), which has fallen by 4.69%. Other tech giants such as Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) are also experiencing pressure, down 2.88% and 1.37% respectively. This sector has faced headwinds possibly due to

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Discover 10 key lessons on risk management, discipline, and mindset to unlock your potential revealed in Market Wizards. The post Secrets To Trading Success (What I’ve Learned From The Market Wizards) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Kickstart your trading day for October 31 with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What levels are in play and why. All is explained in the above video. EURUSD: The EURUSD has been confined between 1.07609 and 1.08725 over the last few weeks. As the US session gets underway, the high of

Societe Generale highlights 151.30 as a crucial support for USD/JPY, as the pair’s recent gains suggest strong upward momentum. While signals of a pullback are beginning to appear, maintaining above 151.30 could extend USD/JPY’s targets to higher levels. Key Points: USD/JPY has climbed steadily after breaking above its 50-DMA and crossing a previous descending trend

Barclays: What We Expect from the US October Jobs Report on Friday Synopsis: Barclays forecasts a deceleration in October’s nonfarm payrolls to 125k, down from September’s 254k, with employment impacted by the Boeing strike and recent hurricanes. Wage growth is expected to remain steady, while the unemployment rate may tick up due to temporary disruptions.

The price of USDCAD fell below its 100-hour moving average currently at 1.39028 (see earlier post). Last week, the price fell below that moving average line, but reversed back higher. The week before it fell below the 100-hour moving average but also failed on the break. When the market trends you can get those counter-trend

The major European stock indices are closing lower on the day. The declines outlined by the German DAX and France’s CAC with each declining by 1%. The final numbers are showing: German DAX, -1.03%France’s CAC -1.05%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.61%Spain’s Ibex, -0.36%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.64% For the month, also the indices are closing lower with the

Prior +1.7%Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y expectedPrior +2.7% Headline annual inflation ticked higher as predicated by the individual country readings we got in the last two days. However, core annual inflation remained unchanged as it was in September, seen at 2.7%. That will give the ECB some confidence despite the higher headline numbers for

Nexo, a leading digital assets institution, today announced its major rebrand and platform redesign, marking its evolution from a crypto lending pioneer to the first comprehensive and compliant digital assets wealth platform. Unveiled on Bitcoin Whitepaper Day, this step reflects Nexo’s growth and broader strategic vision for empowering forward-thinking investors to grow, preserve, and utilize

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 42 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 119 bps ECB: 23 bps (91% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 121 bps BoE: 30 bps (80% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 94 bps BoC: 32 bps (72%

Not shown in the screenshot, large retailer sales +2% vs. +5% prior m/m retail sales -2.3% vs. prior +0.8% Disappointing results vs. the more encouraging industrial output data. — Still to come today: Bank of Japan Policy Meeting Preview – Don’t Hold Your Breath for a HikePreview – Bank of Japan meeting this week –

Our friends over at Newsquawk picked up a BMO note that argues that the Bank of England is more likely to hold rates unchanged in light of the UK budget and the reaction in bond markets. “Considering the composition of the MPC, and the effect the budget measures will have on the BoE projections and

Mawari Network, a spatial computing DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network), has announced a limited node license sale. Already a pioneer in immersive content, the node sale will make Mawari’s 3D streaming technology more scalable and accessible for content creators and developers. This node sale will help create a global, decentralized spatial computing infrastructure as the

The USDCAD has dipped below the 100 hour MA at 1.3900. Last week, the price dipped below the MA but failed after finding support at a swing level, and bounced. This is another try that gives the sellers a win, IF the sellers can continue the momentum going. If so, the 200 hour MA becomes

She’s still trying to thread the needle here but I reckon on the balance of things, the pound has taken to the budget quite well. It was a tough scenario as the currency had mostly expected negative takeaways from the budget. Tax hikes would’ve hit short-term growth and increased spending/borrowing would’ve upset the gilts market

Better than expected, a welcome development for Japanese industry. Japanese manufacturers’ outlooks: see October output +8.3% m/m (prior forecast +6.1%)see November -3.7% m/m — Still to come today: Bank of Japan Policy Meeting Preview – Don’t Hold Your Breath for a HikePreview – Bank of Japan meeting this week – no change to policy expectedJapanese

Prior 6.4%; revised to 6.3% After the revision to August, the euro area jobless rate remained steady and is still keeping on the lower side for well over a year now. The economic slowdown has yet to materially impact the labour market and that’s something the ECB can look to for more flexibility, if need

Prior -0.4% Weaker energy prices were the main cause for the drag for the month of September. If you strip that out, import prices were actually unchanged compared to August. So, that’s something worth noting. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Earlier today, the buyers in the EURUSD took the price outside the Red Box, that has informed the pair over the last 11 trading days. There has been support down at 1.07609, and resistance 1.08725. The break higher today took the price up to 1.08874 before rotating back to the downside. After moving back into

The Asian financial markets are experiencing a substantial increase in interest from novice traders. In Southeast Asia, online trading has expanded rapidly, driven by growing internet access and an increasingly digital-savvy population. In Indonesia, active online traders grew by 18%, supported by a thriving e-commerce sector and rising financial literacy. Across Southeast Asia, the digital

The pound has finally cracked. It was able to ignore the run up in gilt yields for a time but we may have hit some kind of breaking point now. UK 10s are up 16 bps to 4.51%, which is the highest since Nov 2023. The pound didn’t care until it did…in the past few

Has the market finally remembered that an election is coming? ‘Sell everything’ is the mantra today as market participants head for the sidelines in stocks, bonds and precious metals. Gold is getting hit hard today after a relentless rally for three months. It’s down $52 to $2734, or 1.8%. Given how strong gold has been,

Bitcoin moved sharply higher yesterday and reached an intraday high of $73,600. That was within $200 of the all-time high reached back in March at $73,794. The price has backed off today and trades down by $738 or -1.01% at $71,991. The move to the upside extended into what I have as a swing area

Fundamental Overview The strong bullish momentum in the US Dollar waned a bit in this final part of the week as we got a pullback in Treasury yields. In fact, the main culprit for the US Dollar strength lately has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve has been bear-flattening which

Memories of the downfall of Liz Truss are being resurrected as the UK bond market recoils after Labour’s first budget in 15 years. UK 10-year gilt yields are up 12 bps to 4.47%, which is the highest since November 2023. It was a spike earlier in 2023 to 4.75% that pushed out Truss and her

Prior +1.6% A rise in non-food store retail sales (+1.7%) is helping to bolster the overall reading, offsetting the drop from food store sales (-0.8%). After months of absent data, it’s a bit surprising to suddenly see a shift in trend when the series has returned after a methodology fix as well. Interesting. This article

It would have probably been wise not to comment at all rather than say “we do not comment on market movements”. He also said this: The budget has been about restoring fiscal stability, there are two new robust fiscal rulesTough choices were necessary to fix the foundations of UK economy UK 10-year yields have cooled

US Treasury yields are at the highs of the day across the curve on a small jump in the past 15 minutes. US 10s are now up 1 bps on the day to 4.28% after falling as low as 4.20% earlier. It’s not clear what the catalyst is because there are conflicting Middle East reports

Prior quarter 0.9%employment cost index Q3 0.8% versus 0.9% estimaeemployment wages QoQ 0.8% versus 0.9% last quarteremployment benefits 0.8% versus 1.0% last quarter HIGHLIGHTS from the BLS Civilian workers’ compensation costs rose by 0.8% (seasonally adjusted) from June to September 2024.Over the 12-month period ending in September 2024, civilian workers’ compensation costs increased 3.9%, down

The GBPUSD has moved below the 1.2938 level. That level corresponded with a number of swing lows and highs going back to mid-July (see red numbered circles on the chart below). See earlier video HERE at 4:15 mark. Last week the price fell below that level as well, but quickly snapped back higher. Today we

Politico is out with a new poll and it once again show a very tight race that comes down to Pennsylvania, which is near deadlocked. Pennsylvania: Harris 48%; Trump 47% Michigan: Harris 49%; Trump 45% North Carolina: Trump 47%; Harris 45% New Hampshire: Harris 50%; Trump 43% Yesterday, we saw bonds sell off and the

Inflation outlook for fiscal year 2025, 2026 is much less certain than for 2024New risks could emerge depending on who will be the new US president The rest here are just token remarks but these ones are perhaps hitting in an air pocket with USD/JPY falling below its 100-hour moving average (seen below) ahead of

This is because Japan has not seen rate hikes in a very long timeNext rate hike can happen when we become more confidence of realising our outlookIf wage hikes are similar to this year, that will be a positive developmentBut that doesn’t mean we will decide a rate hike only with that This article was

It will be three months before we get any real indications on Q4 and this number is mostly a placeholder. More-pressing in the next few weeks will be indications on how Q3 GDP will be revised. That said, CIBC made an argument that US potential (non-inflationary) growth is now 3%. This article was written by

There is a bit of a ‘sell everything’ mode underway and the S&P 500 is down more than 1% now and has broken last week’s low. The bond market isn’t helping as UK gilt yields are now up 15 bps in what could be a preview of what’s to come for Treasuries if we get

Tony Vejseli, Figure Markets Holdings Inc., and GXD Labs, LLC (collectively “the Group”) today issued a statement to address recent developments following a meeting held on October 28 at White & Case’s Midtown Manhattan offices, where the Group met with the board of directors (the “Board”) and management team of Ionic Digital, Inc. (the “Company”

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest maker of advanced chips: Activated routine typhoon alert preparation procedures at all our Taiwan Fabs and construction siteswe do not expect significant impact to our operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

What are the key technical levels in play as the North American session begins? and why? EURUSD: The EURUSD moved up to test the 200 day MA and swing area up to 1.08725 yesterday and found willing sellers on the first look. The price backed off into the close and extended to 1.0843 in the

Headlines: Japanese yen still the only notable mover among major currencies so far todayBOJ governor Ueda comments on phrasing of needing time to scrutinise market risksBOJ governor Ueda: Uncertainties surrounding Japan’s economy, prices remain highBOJ governor Ueda: Will pay attention to upside risks to prices from weak yenBOJ governor Ueda: It is possible that unforeseen

Starting Friday, China’s six largest national banks will introduce a new pricing system for existing mortgage rates. Previously, mortgage rate adjustments could only occur once a year, but now homebuyers have more flexibility. They can ask banks to adjust the repricing period to either three or six months whenever they choose or stick with the

Will keep adjusting the degree of easing if economic, price outlook is to be realisedMust pay due attention to financial, FX markets and their impact on economy, pricesNeed to closely watch impact of overseas economies, including US economy as wellTo publish findings of long-term policy review after the December meetingWon’t hold preconceptions about timing of