Everyone is trying to make sense of this market but this looks like position-squaring to me. An extremely crowded trade has been to buy AI (i.e. NVDA) and short rate-sensitive stocks (Russell 2000). That’s been a wonderful trade as the Russell 2000 languished and Nvidia soared to briefly become the most-valuable stock in the world. […]

Job market strong but has cooled in recent monthsWe are making progress on inflationSupported June Fed decision, says mon policy is restrictive nowEconomy is on a good path but he would like to see more dataWants to see more improvement in supply conditionsWants to see general demand conditions moderate some more going forward Musalem is

The final of three coupon auctions will take place at 1 PM ET with the sale of $22 billion of 30-year bonds by the US Treasury. Both the 3 and 10 year note auctions had strong demand with a negative tail, greater than the average bid to cover, with strong domestic demand and steady international

Median CPI +0.2% m/m and +4.15% y/yTrimmed mean CPI +0.2% and 3.34% y/yMedian CPI is the one-month inflation rate of the component whose expenditure weight is in the 50th percentile of price changes.16 percent trimmed-mean CPI is a weighted average of one-month inflation rates of components whose expenditure weights fall below the 92nd percentile and

I don’t expect they will be the last to move-forward a rate cut call. Bank of America is also at December. “Today’s report is, to use Powell’s words, ‘good news’ and we now think this paves the way for a first cut in September,” said economist Michael Feroli. This article was written by Adam Button

The betting markets are increasingly wary of Biden’s ability to stay in the race. Ultimately, the choice comes down to him but every day there is a new name calling for him to step down. A House Democrat from Michigan today said he should leave the race as the chorus continues to grow. The New

The US CPI data came in lower than expected, and that has led to a fall in the US dollar, and a fall in US yields. The EURUSD has broken higher and moved above a swing area between 1.0875 and 1.0887. Also at 1.0887 is a downward sloping trendline on the 4-hour chart connecting highs

High-yield 4.405% versus 4.403% last monthWI at the time of the auction 4.383%Tail +2.2 basis points vs six-month average of -0.9 basis pointsBid to Cover 2.30X vs six month average of 2.42XDealers 15.88% vs six-month average of 14.9%Directs 23.36% vs six-month average of 17.5%Indirects 60.76% vs six-month average of 67.6% AUCTION GRADE: D+ The 30-year

Via Kiwibank, who were ahead of the curve (“sticking to our call for cuts to begin in November”) on this shift from the RBNZ: importantly, we finally got a noticeable softening in tone. It was a welcome shift given the total collapse in business confidence last week. Enough is enough. The economy is clearly responding

Headline measures: Prior y/y 3.3%m/m -0.1% versus +0.1% expected Prior m/m 0.1% Unrounded % vs +0.313% m/m prior Core measures and details: Core CPI m/m +0.1% versus +0.2% expected. Prior month 0.2%Unrounded core +0.065% vs +0.163% prior Core CPI y/y +3.3% versus 3.4% expected. Prior month was 3.4%Supercore m/m -0.054% vs -0.045% priorSupercore y/y +4.651%

The NZDUSD moved sharply higher after the tamer than expected US CPI data sent the USD lower. That moved to the upside took the price above a cluster of moving averages including: 200-hour movie area to 0.61024100-bar moving out on the four hour chart at 0.61059100-hour moving out in 0.61136, and even the 200-bar moving

New Zealand food prices in June 2024: +1% m/m and -0.3% y/y Food prices make up nearly 19% of New Zealand’s consumer price index. – We get the Q2 CPI data from NZ next week. Wednesday morning, July 17, New Zealand time: 10.45am This is TUESDAY at 2245 GMT and 1645 US Eastern time. Earlier

Bidens campaign says: There is increased anxiety after the debate, but it is NOT seeing a drastic shift in where the race stands Its internal data and public polling show the race remains within margin of error in key battleground states.It’s polling shows Bidens post debate net favorability is 20 percentage points higher than Trump

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaking on “Global Inflation and Monetary Policy Challenges” before the 2024 Australian Conference of Economists Cook (info via Reuters): “My baseline forecast…is that inflation will continue to move toward target over time, without much further rise in unemployment,”soft landings are “more likely when policy easing began with inflation already

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump met with major U.S. Bitcoin miners last month in a move to engage with the crypto folks and garner their votes. He is well-positioned to do so. Incumbent President Biden has overseen further Bitcoin regulation, so he is out of favour with the Bitcoin et al community. Trump has said he wants ensure the

China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced on Wednesday a number of measures. More curbs on short-selling securities re-lending – in which brokers borrow shares for clients to short sell – would be suspended from today, Thursday, 11 July 2024 margin requirements would be raised for short-sellers, from 80% to 100% Urged stock exchanges to publish

The USDCHF moved sharply lower after the US CPI data as the USD reacted to lower rates and the expectations of 2 cuts by the Fed in 2024. The move lower ticket price to the 61.8% retracement of the recent move up from the June low to the July high. That level comes in at

Rate cuts? Failing growth? Huge deficits? Political instability? Geopolitical fears? Take your pick, gold has them all. The week started off with a slump on data showing China didn’t add to reserves (at least officially) for a second month but that hasn’t been enough to derail the trade. Gold is up $51 to $2422. With

Prior week 238K revised to 239KInitial jobless claims 222K vs 236K estimate4-week MA of initial jobless claims 233.5K vs 238.75K last week Continuing claims 1.852M vs 1.860M est.Prior week continuing claims 1.858M revised to 1.856M4 week moving average continuing claims 1.840M vs 1.831M last week The data is still consistent with a solid jobs market.

There is a slight extension to the narrow ranges earlier but it is looking rather one-sided. The greenback is the one dragged lower now in European morning trade, with EUR/USD pushing to a one-month high of 1.0853. The pair is now up 0.2% on the day, with other major currencies also posting roughly similar gains

Market Analysis: A Patchwork of Green and Red Today’s trading session displays a vivid tapestry of gains and dips across various sectors, reflecting the diverse reactions of investors to the latest economic data and corporate earnings. A glance at the stock market heatmap reveals significant movements that could hint at upcoming trends. Sector Overview Technology:

Shares of Tesla are down 3.6% on this headline. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The past few days I’ve been posting about the trending GBPJPY. The pair has been trending since it’s most recent swing low back on June 14. Initially, the price needed to get back above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages. Then it needed to stay above those moving averages, and it has (see point

Later today, Thursday, 11 July 2024, we get the US consumer inflation data. Due at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time. What to expect. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the ‘expected’ in the screenshot

Why it’s important? In the Asian session, Eamonn published the range of estimates for today’s US CPI report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although

I think this is mostly a mechanical move as low-rate trades get re-worked. The Russell 2000 is up a whopping 2.5% in its best day of the year while the Nasdaq is now down nearly 1%. That speaks to hedges being unwound. Some of that is that lower inflation will lead to rate cuts and

The US CPI data sent the USDJPY (and other JPY pairs) sharply lower. The decline was overdue as the price has extended to 1987 levels on the run higher. Nevertheless, it was a sharp 400 PIP move to the downside. Now what? When you have a sharp move like we saw today, traders who could

The USD id dribbling lower. Apaprt from what has ben posted there are no obvious fresh catalysts. Markets are super-pumped to see a lower US CPI later today and a potential nearer-term USFed rate cut. Whether the CPI behaves or not, time will tell. The Australian dollar has been a key beneficiary. The RBA look

Australian consumer inflation expectations, still above the actual official inflation rate Pic from the Reserve Bank of Australia website This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the North American session begins, the EUR is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest. The USD is mostly lower but only modestly lower as most of the major currencies are scrunched together today. Low to high trading ranges are modest today with 5 of the 6 major currency pairs vs the USD

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first being for USD/CHF at the 0.8950 level. It isn’t one that holds any technical significance but could hold any downside pressure as it coincides with the weekly pivot. The ceiling for price action in the pair is

Prior +2.4%HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelimPrior +2.8% No changes to the initial estimate with core annual inflation seen at 2.9%, marking a fall below the 3% mark for the first time since February 2022. But there is still work to do in order to get it back down towards the desired 2% level. This

US equity futures jumped on the CPI report but are now back in positive territory, with S&P 500 futures slightly lower ahead of the open. A couple thoughts: 1) The index jumped yesterday on no news, climbing 1.0%. There will be talk that CPI was leaked and this was a ‘sell the fact’ trade. I

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly said that he’s looking for ‘greater confidence’ that inflation will sustainably fall to the Fed’s 2% target. Headline inflation is still 3.0% but the past three month-over-month numbers were -0.1%, 0.0%, +0.3% — a trend that’s on track to hit the target. Moreover, the Fed has been noting

The report cites a source. Atsushi Mimura replaced Masato Kanda in late June as Japan’s top currency diplomat and we’ve been eagerly awaiting a new strategy. Kanda relied heavily on verbal intervention and then tried to squeeze the market after it blew through higher levels. He ultimately spent $60 billion in a temporarily successful intervention

The major US stock indices are opening up a little changed. Given the weaker than expected US CPI data, there may be a “sell-the-fact” reaction. Be aware. A snapshot of the market eight minutes into the open is currently showing: Dow Industrial Average average -90.55 points or -0.23% at 39630.82S&P index +0.47 points or 0.01%

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. The market seems to be taking it

And that will keep markets in a bit of a bind until we get to the release later in the day. The estimate for headline annual inflation is for it to slow to 3.1%. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is estimated to remain at 3.4% – unchanged from May. Either way, the details are going to

Bank of England Pill: Uncertainty around UK wage data is unlikely to disappear soonBOE’s Pill: Services and wages continue to point to uncomfortable strength in inflationDay two on Capitol Hill: Fed’s Powell says inflation down but still too highUS May wholesale sales +0.4% vs +0.1% expectedUS treasury sells $39 billion of 10 year notes at

US consumer inflation data: for June 2024due at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time What to expect? This snapshot is from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the ‘expected’ in the screenshot above) for the key data points:

Headlines: US inflation to hog the spotlight in trading todayWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?The CPI importance is fadingDollar a touch softer awaiting the US CPI report laterUK May monthly GDP +0.4% vs +0.2% m/m expectedGermany June final CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelimIEA sees oil demand growth slowing as China

Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, shared on X an interesting finding today. “The EUR overnight implied volatility sits at 8.8% into CPI later on, implying a move of +/-40 pips over the tenor. That’s the lowest level o/n implieds have traded on ‘CPI Day’ since back in 2021”. This is just another evidence

Gold rose as high as $2386 earlier today but has since sagged back to $2372. There is something of a ‘buy everything’ mode unfolding in stocks at the moment but the optimism hasn’t spread to gold. It trade above $2400 in April and May but has struggled to get back above. Last week it came

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

White House confirms US President Biden’s news conference on Thursday, 11 July 2024 at 5.30pm US Eastern time. That’s 2130 GMT. The US CPI data for June hits tomorrow, maybe B has seen the number and is happy to talk about it? This will no doubt be a raucous occasion with the press baying for

There are only lower-ier data on the calendar today. None of these are likely to move major FX much upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may

In my view, it is going to be a quite a task for investors to pick up on any fear from the US CPI report later. The estimate shows that we should get a softer headline reading, although core annual inflation is estimated to remain steady as in May. If it plays out that way

Japan’s core machinery orders missed estimates for a rise m/m in May, falling instead. Japan Core Machinery Orders (May 2024) -3.2% m/m (vs. expected +0.8%) this is a volatile indicatorcore orders exclude ship buildings and repairs as well as electricity power generationits used as an indicator to capital spending in six to nine months. The

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. The market seems to be taking it

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. The market seems to be taking it

This speaks to the continued struggle in Germany’s manufacturing sector, which is the key economic driver for Europe’s largest economy. According to the VDMA, around 40% of German manufacturers see revenue continuing to fall in the current year with 23% expecting stagnation. Meanwhile, almost a third of companies are rating their present situation as being

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand yesterday, ICYMI: RBNZ leaves it cash rate on hold at 5.5%, as expectedNZD/USD drops after the RBNZ statement – hints of a closer rate cutNew Zealand rate pricing implies 25bp rate cut for October vs. 16 before RBNZ statementWestpac on the RBNZ statement today – “less hawkish” than May

As for this year itself, the agency is keeping their demand growth forecast largely steady at 970k bpd. IEA notes that the post-pandemic rebound in Chinese consumption has now run its course. And while China has accounted for roughly 70% of global demand gains last year, it is only holding a share of around 40%

Prior 0.0%Services +0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expectedIndustrial output +0.2% vs +0.2% m/m expectedManufacturing output +0.4% vs +0.4% m/m expectedConstruction output +1.9% vs +1.0% m/m expected Looking at the breakdown, the services sector contributed 0.22% of GDP growth in May while production contributed 0.03% and construction 0.11%. Of note, the services sector has been a key

With the UK GDP out of the way, the European session is empty on the data front and will largely be a placeholder as the market awaits the release of the US CPI and the US Jobless Claims figures in the American session. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US June CPI The US CPI Y/Y is

I had the pleasure of speaking with Dale Pinkert today about the state of markets and why I’m seeing increasing signs of complacency in the market. We had a chance to talk about: The VIXBondsThe US dollarThe poundThe euroThe Aussie and Canadian dollarsGoldMuch more. Give it a watch. This article was written by Adam Button

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB flat French stocks are still keeping a slight rebound after the bounce yesterday. The chart below shows that near-term support is still holding but any major bounce is left wanting. For the day itself, we’ll have to look to the US CPI

German DAX futures +0.3%UK FTSE future +0.3% Even French CAC 40 futures are seen up 0.3%, looking to fully erase the gains from the Tuesday drop after yesterday’s modest rebound. This comes after a strong finish in Wall Street overnight as well. As for US futures, the overall mood is more tentative with S&P 500

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook “very attentive” to what is happening with the unemployment rate, would be responsive if situation changes quickly Earlier Fed’s Cook sees US soft landing: lower inflation, no significant jobless rise This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Major currencies are lightly changed on the day and are expected to keep that way until we get to the main event later. The kiwi is marginally higher, bouncing back a little after yesterday’s fall following a more dovish RBNZ. NZD/USD dropped to test its key daily moving averages and is holding on for now,

Japanese Machinery Orders for May 2024, the m/m is a disappointment but the y/y is more encouraging. more to come — The core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series its used as a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

I posted this earlier in the week, so this is a repeat. The Wall Street Journal’s Fed watcher Timiraos summarising inflation forecasts for June: The data is due on Thursday July 11 at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1230 GMT) and will be a key factor for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) into interest

Goldman Sachs intends to expand its crypto offerings, set to launch three tokenization projects by the end of the year. The firm’s digital assets global head Mathew McDermott spoke with Fortune (gated). In brief: Goldman Sachs is set to launch three tokenization projects by the end of the year with major clients, including its first

Bank of Korea comments on their policy decision today: Will maintain restrictive policy stance for sufficient period of timeWill examine the timing of a rate cutEconomy to continue moderate growthTo monitor trend of slowing inflationTo assess trade-off between policy variables, such as growth and financial stabilityGrowth temporarily weaken in q2Gdp growth in line with earlier

Archegos Capital Management founder Sung Kook “Bill” Hwang was convicted of fraud and other charges. The charges have the potential to see him sent to prison for up to 20 years. Hwang’s misdeeds are estimated to have cost banks around US$10bn. So, if the sentencing judge is a retail FX trader Hwang will probably get

The Bank of Korea kept interest rates unchanged at its meeting today. Awaiting comments from Governor Ree Chang Yong. – Markets are expecting the first cut from the Bank between August and October. Inflation has been falling but some price rises (city gas and some public services) are set to rise in Q3. Inflation expectations

The Australian consumer is not running on empty just hyet according to this data. CBA Household Spending for June 2024 +0.6% m/m prior +1.1% and +3.9% y/y prior +4.3% A slower rate of growth for both measures but not too shabby. Australian’s received a tax cut on July 1. Also from July elect This article

Trump to speak at Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville in late JulyAUD/USD hits a 6 month high with USD lower across the majors boardTen investment bank forecasts for June US CPI due later on Thursday, 11 July 2024US CPI data due Thursday. Here are the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)Bank Korea

Fed Powell reiterated the dual risks. That is it’s not just inflation as chair Powell feels it is starting to decelerate again. This time employment is also a concern. Bad news is still good news. That may change going forward, but for now the broader S&P and NASDAQ once again closed at record levels. For

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Federal Reserve Chair Powell gave testimony in the US Senate on Tuesday and repeated the message to the House on Wednesday. For what he said and its impact, summary here: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 9 Jul: Powell’s testimony keeps easing door open for Sept. Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal has handed down

Here is what needs to happen: Lester Holt or someone else needs to come at Biden hard and fast and let the chips fall where they may. I don’t think anyone is doing any favours with softballs here. This shouldn’t be a policy interview because the only topic that anyone cares about his his mental

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand performed a bit of a pivot in its brief statement yesterday. ICYMI: RBNZ leaves it cash rate on hold at 5.5%, as expectedNZD/USD drops after the RBNZ statement – hints of a closer rate cutNew Zealand rate pricing implies 25bp rate cut for October vs. 16 before RBNZ statementWestpac

Biden pushed back hard against pressure to drop off the Presidential ticket at the start of the week but his comments at the NATO Summit didn’t exactly put to rest questions about his health. Now there is fresh pressure and his betting odds have against slipped, with PredictIt pegging him at less than 50/50 to

Bank of America believes the Fed will first cut rates in December but conceded that much of what happens next could hinge on Thursday’s inflation report. The market is pricing in 19 bps of easing through the Sept FOMC and 50.6 bps by year end. For this report, BofA forecasts a modest increase in both

The price of WTI crude futures are settling at $82.10. That is up $0.69 or 0.85%. The gains come after three consecutive losing sessions, and was driven by a bullish OPEC demand forecast and a significant drop in U.S. inventories. The EIA reported a 3.4 million-barrel drawdown in U.S. oil inventories, surpassing the expected 1.3

The USD is nudging to the upside and in doing so, is making a break in some of the major currencies USDJPY: The USDJPY has moved above the swing level at 161.732 with some momentum. The high price from last week is the next target at 161.943 with the best case being the price now

The major European indices are closing higher on the day, bouncing back from the declines seen during yesterday’s trade. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.99%France CAC, +0.86%UK FTSE 100 +0.66%Spain’s Ibex +1.59%Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.31% As European traders head for the exits, US stocks are trading back toward the highest for

Senators propose ban on congressional stock trading. The ban would be on members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from trading individual stocks.The current law requires disclosure of stock trades but is seen as insufficient and poorly enforced.The STOCK Act of 2012 mandates disclosure of trades over $1,000 within 45 days.The new bill would

The U.S. Treasury will conduct the second coupon auction of the week, when they sell $39 billion of 10-year notes at 1 PM ET. The note auctions will be graded (and impactful on markets) on its merits compared to the six-month averages of the major components tracked for the auctions. A snapshot of those components

High yield 4.276%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.286% Tail -1.0 basis points versus six-auction average 0.4 bpsBid-to-Cover 2.58X versus six-auction average 2.52xDealers 11.53% versus six-auction average 16.1%. Least since August 2023Directs 20.86% versus six-auction average 16.7%Indirects 67.61% versus six-auction average 67.2% AUCTION GRADE: A+ Nothing wrong with this auction with a -1.0

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 has risen to 2.0% from 1.5% on July 3. The move to the upside snaps a series of declines. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.0 percent on July 10,

Introduction Today’s stock market brings forth nuanced shifts and intriguing activity across several sectors. Let’s dissect the key movers and trends as seen in today’s market heatmap, with a focus on the technology sector which shows resilient advancements amidst broader market fluctuations. Sector Overview Technology Triumphs: Notably, the technology sector portrayed promising trends. Heavyweights such

The USDCHF buyers are making a play with the pair breaking above its 100-day moving average and 200 bar movie aired on the four hour chart near 0.89767. Ahead to the topside lies the 100 day moving average at 0.8992. Recall from yesterday that moving average held resistance. Getting above opens the door for a

Over the past few years, Boeing, one of the world’s largest aerospace and aviation manufacturers, has faced significant reputational and financial performance challenges. Starting with financials, the company has been reporting negative earnings per share (EPS) since 2019. And the figures were much worse than expected in four out of five cases. It looked like

Bloomberg is reporting that Apple aims to ship 10% more new iPhones in 2024 after a bumpy 2023. Apple shares are now trading up $3.68 or 1.61% at $232.39 and reached a new record high level. Shares of Apple are up 20.37% in 2024 after rising 48.18% in 2023. Looking at the daily chart, a

Here’s a note from Piper Sandler noting that they have been ‘pounding the table’ on the idea that it’s not taking longer than normal for the effects of Fed hikes to hit the economy. They have looked at cycles dating back to 1958 at when Fed hikes begin to hit the economy. They note that

Musalem’s event is going to be of interest to traders, 1530 GMT / 1130 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in a discussion on economic inclusion before the National Credit Union Administration Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) Summit 1700 GMT / 1300 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of

Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting is a policy review, not a full Monetary Policy Statement; there are no fresh economic forecasts or briefings being issued. Statement from the Bank: Restrictive monetary policy has significantly reduced consumer price inflation, with the Committee expecting headline inflation to return to within the 1 to 3 percent target

Fed’s Powell is likely to repeat most of what he said during his day one testimony in the Senate yesterday. The faces are different with House banking committee representatives providing the questions to the Fed chair: dual mandate has served us well.On the balance sheet runoff, the Fed has made quite a lot of progress

BOE’s Mann is speaking and says: Supply side of the economy is growing very slowly Sees labor market tightness.Says that wage growth is still far away from being consistent with the inflation targetWe have to see disciplining of service sector price growth.On rate cuts Mann says that until I see some deceleration in services prices,

Prior was +0.1% (revised to +0.2%)Inventories +0.6% vs +0.6% expectedPrior inventories +0.6%Inventories -0.5% y/y The inventory number will help to put a floor under Q2 GDP estimates while the better sales should add to optimism about Q3. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

In case you missed the decision earlier: RBNZ leaves it cash rate on hold at 5.50%, as expected The pressure is staying on the New Zealand dollar today, as it is holding at the lows for the day currently. NZD/USD is down 0.8% to near 0.6070 and is testing key support levels once more. The

Uncertainty around UK wage data is unlikely to disappear soonI’m not sure if we’re in a world of persistent inflation pressures are notImportant to see if reduce tightness in the labor market leads to slower wage growth This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will see if the market will

In a report released late yesterday, CIBC significantly raised its gold price forecasts, seeing a more bullish outlook for bullion, especially in the event of a Trump presidency. Key Takeaways: Gold: 2024: New forecast is $2,290/oz, up from the previous $2,100/oz.2025: New forecast is $2,600/oz, up from the previous $2,000/oz.2026: New forecast is $2,400/oz, up

The S&P index has reached 5600 for the first time ever. The index is up 23 points or 0.41%. For the trading year, the S&P index is now up around 17.4%. That still lags the gain in the NASDAQ index which is up 23.45%. The NASDAQ and that is up 102.14 points or 0.56% at

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures +0.1% After the slump yesterday, European indices look set for a more muted open today. This comes as Wall Street was also rather tepid yesterday and US futures are also seen flattish today. The CAC 40 index is one to watch as it nudges back towards a key support

Inflation, both CPI and PPI, data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), June 2024: PPI m/m -0.2% prior +0.2% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg reported that the Sahm Rule has been triggered last Friday. In fact, the recent 3-month average rose to 4.0%, which is 50 bps above the 3-month average low of the past 12 months. For more on the Sahm Rule, check this post by Adam. The St. Louis FRED database though, shows that the Sahm

Fundamental Overview Copper extended the gains into the 4.68 level recently on the back of a turnaround in momentum and some positive news from the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI. The price started to pull back last Friday following the US NFP report as the market started to debate whether the US will manage to achieve

The GBPUSD has extended higher and in the process has moved above a swing area between 1.28168 and 1.28272 and extended to the high price from Monday at 1.28449. The price is also near a downward-sloping trendline connecting recent highs at 1.2849. So far traders have leaned against the high for the week, but remains

2024 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at +2.25m barrels2025 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at +1.85m barrels In a separate report from RIA: Russian production decreased by 114K bpd in JuneOPEC oil production in June decreased by 80k bpd in June WTI crude is fractionally lower today but 60-cents above the lows of

The USDCAD is trading to a new low in morning North American trading. In the process, the narrow 23 pip range over the first 2 1/2 days of the week (between 1.3623 and 1.3646). Sellers are making a play…finally. The pair is looking to enter a swing area between 1.3596 and 1.3615. Within that swing

Surprise. Surprise. The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are trading at new record levels. For the S&P it is working on its fifth consecutive record close. For the NASDAQ index it is working on its sixth consecutive record close. The Dow Industrial Average average lags and trades above and below unchanged in early US trading.

For some context, the BOJ held discussions with bond market participants over the last two days before announcing their official decision on tapering later this month. It is being reported that many private banks called for the Japanese central bank to halve its monthly purchases by around 2026. While there was apparently a varying amount

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest of the major currencies, while the NZD is the weakest. Most of the price reaction today is in the NZD which fell sharply vs all the major currencies after its rate decision. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s kept rates unchanged in what was

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.3% Eyes are staying on French stocks as the power struggle plays out following the election over the weekend. The CAC 40 is hovering near key support after yesterday’s fall: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil inventory -3.443m draw versus a draw of -1.333m estimateGasoline inventory -2.006m draw versus a draw of -0.600M estimateDistilates build of 4.884M versus a build of 0.833M estimateCushing draw of -0.702M vs a gain of 0.345M last weekCrude production 13.3M versus 13.2M last weekrefining utilization 1.9% versus expected -0.1%. Per week 1.3% Crude oil

Did you enjoy the first two hours of Powell’s testimony? How about another two? Only this time with the crazies in the House. Tune in at 10 am ET for all the fun but don’t expect much in the way of market-moving information. Powell stayed tightly on script yesterday and I wouldn’t expect a departure

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

A note from RBC on the Bank of England and sterling, says that apart from the BoE outlook the currency could drop on fiscal risks regardless. In summary: BOE could cut by 50 basis points in both 2024 and 2025, leaving GBP with still one of the highest rates in the G10 But risk for

In the kickstart video for July 10, 2024, I break down the technicals that are driving the three major currency pairs: EURUSDUSDJPYGBPUSD Today I give a bonus look at the NZDUSD as it is the biggest mover after the RBNZ rates unchanged but it was considered a more dovish unchanged decision. Technically, The EURUSD is

There are two probabilities that matter in Canada right now: 1) A 64% chance the Bank of Canada cuts rates on July 24 The market has tilted towards a cut in the past two weeks. Despite that, the Canadian dollar has strengthened and I think that’s instructive. The market is increasingly saying that the growth

Headlines: The countdown continues as markets await the main event tomorrowKiwi stays pressured in European morning tradeHas the Sahm Rule been triggered?Japanese banks reportedly urged BOJ to halve monthly bond purchases by 2026BOJ will likely project inflation will stay around its 2% target in coming yearsUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 5 July -0.2% vs -2.6%

When-rather-than-if characterization of prospective rate cuts seems appropriateThe challenge for the MPC is to get the balance rightWe have to be realistic about how much any one or two economic releases adds to our assessmentServices price inflation and wage growth continue to point to an uncomfortable strength in underlying inflationHard to dispute the case that

Chinese inflation is expected to have edged up a little further in the June data due today. It should put to rest the fear of slipping back into deflation, at the CPI level at least. The PPI is still deep in a deflationary hole. And then its on to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision is due at 2pm New Zealand time: 0200 GMT2200 US Eastern time The Bank is widely expected to hold rates at 5.50% While inflation is still well above target the subsiding NZ economy is likely to prompt the Bank to be a touch less hawkish than it was

The kiwi is the main mover among major currencies so far today, following a more dovish RBNZ earlier here. Besides that, we’re seeing narrow ranges all around with light changes ahead of European trading. What else is new, eh? Fed chair Powell was in the spotlight in trading yesterday but he didn’t offer up much

BofA: A brief and recent history of US FX policyUS equities edge higher as Nvidia scores another gainCrude oil futures settle at $81.41Betting odds of Biden sticking around firmWhy Fed easing will come too late to prevent a major slowdown in growthU.S. Treasury auctions off $58 billion of three-year notes at a high yield of

Prior -2.6%Market index 206.1 vs 206.5 priorPurchase index 144.3 vs 142.9 priorRefinance index 532.3 vs 544.1 prior30-year mortgage rate 7.00% vs 7.03% prior Mortgage applications fell marginally in the past week as a drag in refinancing activity outweighed a slight rise in purchase activity. Overall, this continues to point to a more subdued sentiment in

Bank of Japan more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

It’s just one of those days where tomorrow can’t come soon enough. Besides the kiwi today, other major currencies are lacking any real appetite to move on the day. In exemplifying that sentiment, EUR/USD is still hugging a 13 pips range only so far today. Talk about a snoozefest. We’re pretty much caught in the

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand statement is due at 2pm New Zealand time today, Wednesday, 10 July 2024. which is is 0200 GMT on the 10thand 2200 US Eastern time on the 9th Earlier previews are here, no change to the cash rate is expected: New Zealand – RBNZ shadow board recommends the Reserve

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0770-75. However, the expiries do not hold much technical significance with key support still seen at around 1.0795-00 currently. That coincides with the confluence of the key daily moving averages. As such, I wouldn’t expect the

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will see if the market will

Fundamental Overview Gold erased all the gains from the US NFP report on Monday with some pointing to the news of China remaining on pause for the second consecutive month on gold purchases as the likely culprit. Overall, nothing has changed fundamentally, and the bullish bias should remain intact. As of now, it looks like

If yesterday was a boring day on the data front, today it’s even worse. There’s nothing scehduled for today. We will hear from some central bank speakers and we will get another session of Fed Chair Powell although, as it’s usually the case, he won’t add anything new that he hasn’t already said yesterday. Central

Reserve Bank of New Zealand signalled a nearer term rate cut. I posted earlier: *** Committee expecting headline inflation to return to within the 1 to 3 percent target range in the second half of this year If that’s the case why wouldn’t we expect a rate cut soon? I think the RBNZ agree, judging

Federal Reserve speakers on Wednesday include Bostic and MusalemNew Zealand rate pricing implies 25bp rate cut for October vs. 16 before RBNZ statementNZD/USD drops after the RBNZ statement – hints of a closer rate cutRBNZ leaves it cash rate on hold at 5.5%, as expectedChina June 2024 CPI +0.2% y/y (expected +0.4%) and PPI -0.8%

An ICYMI from Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM), bullish on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts ahead. Info comes via Reuters. “It’s absolutely a soft landing … as the data comes through, that’s what we’re seeing.” expect the Fed to begin cutting in Septemberrate cuts could then continue @ 25 basis points per quarter

WPAC response to the RBNZ, in brief: Dovish RBNZ surprise for marketsagainst expectations that the brief statement would repeat the key messages from May, it was less hawkish. Guidance, via the final paragraph in the statement, was: “The Committee agreed that monetary policy will need to remain restrictive. The extent of this restraint will be

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In fact, the rates market is pricing in nearly two rate cuts for the remainder three meetings by the RBNZ for this year now. The first full rate cut is priced in for October, with odds of an August move also bumped up to ~60% currently. Traders are seeing ~46 bps of rate cuts by

Still solid rises for inflation at the wholesale level. USD/JPY is little changed around 161.36 — The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their outputis calculated by

? When you buy something through one of the links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. In this tutorial, I’ll show you how to use the backtesting function in TradingView and give you the benefits and downsides of this platform, based on my personal experience. This powerful tool allows traders to test

An interesting opinion piece from a US University of Maryland economist and emeritus business professor, Peter Morici, carried by Dow Jones Newswires (gated). Says the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should not cut the Fed Funds rate, “Fed policymakers appear to have lost touch with economic reality”. Citing: federal deficit this year will be 6.7%

0730 GMT / 0330 US Eastern time: Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau holds press conference The European Central Bank next meet on 18 July 2024. The Bank lopped off 25bp at its June meeting. While July is live expectations are for a hold. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The statement is here: RBNZ leaves it cash rate on hold at 5.5%, as expected The part I highlighted is this: *** Committee expecting headline inflation to return to within the 1 to 3 percent target range in the second half of this year If that’s the case why wouldn’t we expect a rate cut

The equity market showed some modest disappointment that Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t offer more of a dovish narrative but quickly shrugged off the disappointment and hung onto gains. It was the fifth consecutive higher close for the S&P 500, all records. S&P 500 +0.1%Nasdaq Comp +0.1%DJIA -0.1%Russell 2000 -0.5%Toronto TSX Comp -0.4% Tomorrow features

The price of crude oil settled at $81.41. That is down $-0.92 or -1.12%.The fall is the 3rd day in a row lower. Technically, looking at the daily chart, the high price on Friday – before the move lower – peaked at $84.52. That price tested the topside trendline connecting highs from April 2023 and

This is shocking stuff from Goldman Sachs’s chief economist Jan Hatzius. Perhaps he is just conveying his research, but I would have thought Goldman Sachs would not want to be associated with this. Anyway, this might upset some folks, but here goes: Jan Hatzius, at the European Central Bank annual conference in Sintra, Portugal, outlined

RBC tiptoe into the political minefield of the US election. It’s a critical event ahead, so we are all going to have to. On the USD, RBC cite election uncertainty: “Until we have more clarity on post-election policy, our 2025 dollar profile remains pretty flat,” Analysts paint a broad outline of scenarios under the two

In the post-Bretton Woods era, US FX interventions have become rare in the 21st century. Influenced by the Plaza and Louvre Accords, US FX policy evolved under Secretary Robert Rubin’s “strong dollar” stance in the 1990s. Interventions were limited in the 21st century, with notable instances in 2000 and 2011. Recent administrations have generally favored

more to come — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.3 mn barrelsDistillates +0.8 mn bblsGasoline -0.6 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports

Newswires with info on wage growth in the euro zone, data via the latest, June, Indeed Wage Tracker. The European Central Bank use this survey in policy deliberations, frequently referred to by chief economist at the bank, Lane. Salaries for jobs advertised on the Indeed website were up 3.7% year-on-year in Junefrom 3.5% in the

The GBPJPY has been trending higer since mid-June. That move to the topside has been using the 100 and 200 hour MAs since mid-June as the roadmap or guiding light. When there were some dips below the 100 hour MA, either the 200 hour MA stalled the fall, or the break of the 100 hour

At PredictIt, the implied odds of President Biden sticking around to fight for another term bumped up to 63% today from about 54% at this time yesterday. He appears to be trying to rally the troops, saying that he isn’t going anywhere. That’s left vulnerable Congressmen in a tough spot. They can try to force

Eurostoxx -0.7%Germany DAX -0.6%France CAC 40 -0.9%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX -0.7%Italy FTSE MIB -0.5% This comes after the early gains yesterday were mostly erased by the time the closing bell rung. The CAC 40 ended 0.6% lower while other indices were largely flat or marginally down on Monday. So, this carries over the softer mood

The USDCHF price action today is setting up traders for the Fed chair testimony at 10 AM ET. On the topside, the 100-day moving average resistance. That level comes in at 0.89903. It would take a move above that level to increase the bullish bias through the Fed chair testimony. On the downside, the 100

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

European indices are ending the day down as the aftermath of the elections continue to bother investors. France will have trouble forming a government given their mix. The UK Labour take charge after 14 years of a Tory rule. Uncertainty in lead to selling and that is what we’ve seen in the equity market today

The market appears to be partly disappointed by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments today as some were hoping for a clearer timeline on when rate hikes could come. Instead, Powell offered no indications that a cut would be on the table at the July 31 meeting and leaned on data beyond that. Powell said

ECB board member Piero Cipollone will be speaking at digital euro event organised by the Central Bank of Cyprus 0900 GMT / 0500 US Eastern timeits in a video message format This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The WI level is at 4.407%. The full results will be announced in a minute or two. The component history shows: Tail: 1.1bps last, six-auction average -0.1bpsBid-to-Cover: 2.43x last, six-auction average 2.57xDealers: 20.0% last, six-auction average 17.0%Directs: 15.9% last, six-auction average 17.8%Indirects: 64.1% last, six-auction average 65.2% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

High Yield: %, six-auction average 4.390%Tail: -0.8 bps, six-auction average -0.1bpsBid-to-Cover: 2.67x, six-auction average 2.57xDealers: 14.8%, six-auction average 17.0%Directs: 21.3.%, six-auction average 17.8%Indirects: 64.0%, six-auction average 65.2% AUCTION GRADE: A- The coupon auction for the week has gotten off to a strong start with the three year note auction attracting solid demand. The best bid

The US stock market is shifting. Whereas the Dow Industrial Average average has been lower for most the day has now turned positive. The NASDAQ index which has been higher most the day has given up the gains and has moved into negative territory (it trades above and below unchanged). The snapshot of the market

The broader US stock indices are trading higher at the U.S. open. The Dow 30 is trading marginally lower as it continues to lag. Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices closed at record levels yesterday (4th straight for the S&P and 5th straight for the Nasdaq). The Dow Industrial Average average is still short of

British Retail Consortium (BRC) data: Like for like sales -0.5% y/y in June (Like-for-like sales data strips out the impact of changes in store size.) prior +0.4% in May total sales -0.2% y/y in June prior +0.7% Data also from Barclays: spending on its credit and debit cards fell by 0.6% y/y Junefirst drop since

To give some backdrop to his speech later, this will be his semi-annual testimony to Congress. It is one over the course of two days but usually the first day is the only one that matters. And typically when the text is released ahead of the testimony, that is when markets will start looking for

The USDJPY has caught a bid as yields move higher (10 year up around 5 basis points). Chair Powell is more neutral. The US treasury will auction 3, 10, and 30 year coupon issues this week. Perhaps higher yield is being impacted by the need to push them higher to attract buyers. The move to

Tech sector takes center stage in today’s market movements Today’s stock market presented a fascinating tableau of mixed sentiments, with particular attention on the semiconductor and technology sectors which showcased significant movement. Let’s dive into the diverse performances across the board and uncover the undercurrents driving today’s market dynamics. 📈 Semiconductor Sector: A robust recovery

The AUDUSD traders are pushing against close support at a swing area between 0.67278 and 0.6738. So far the price has been able to hold support against the lower end of that extreme in up-and-down trading. Recall from yesterday, the high for the day found willing sellers against a swing high going back to January

The USDCAD has been trading in an up-and-down trading range over the last few days . The low yesterday was at 1.36238. The high price today was at 1.3647. That’s not a lot of movement. Within the range sits its 100 day moving average between the two levels at 1.36369, and price action has been

The Nikkei 225 had a big day today, rising nearly 2% to an all-time high. It’s a sign of an ongoing breakout after finally cracking the 1990 high earlier this year. Blackrock Investment Institute says there is more to come, calling long Japanese equities one of its highest conviction equity ideas. One area they are

The US economic calendar is light again today but the Fed calendar has a headliner: Jerome Powell will testify in DC at 10 am ET. The comments are often released early so we’re on guard. I wrote a preview yesterday: How much more confident will Powell be on inflation? Justin also wrote this: Powell to

The EIA is out with its recent short-term energy outlook: Raises forecast for 2024 world oil demand, now seeing a 1.10 million BPD year-over-year increase.Raises 2025 forecast for world oil demand growth by 300,000 BPD, now seeing a 1.80 million BPD year-over-year increase.Raises forecast for 2024 US oil production by 10,000 BPD. Now expects output

Oil demand numbers over the July 4th weekend weren’t as strong as many in the market had hoped and that’s putting a damper on crude this week. WTI was trading higher earlier in US trade but has quickly shifted lower, falling $1.00 to $81.32. At 4:30 pm ET, the private oil inventory data will be

Reducing restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economy and job market the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are coming into better balanceMore good data would strengthen our confidence on inflationRate cut not appropriate until Fed gains greater confidence inflation headed sustainably toward 2%Q1 data didn’t support greater confidenceWe continue

This marks the highest reading since December last year, although the trend remains that it has been 30 consecutive months since the index has been above its long-term average of 98. With the US elections coming up in the months ahead, I wouldn’t anticipate too strong a bounce in sentiment given the relative uncertainty. That

As the dollar and yields slumped on Friday, gold jumped up by 1.5% with buyers hopeful for another run at the $2,400 mark. But they were dealt a blow in trading yesterday, as the precious metal slumped by 1.4% in what is basically a reset move. In the bigger picture, it sees gold stay in

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin has been under heavy selling pressure for the entire month of June as a couple of bearish drivers continued to weigh on the market. First, we had the fears around the Bitcoin repayments to old Mt. Gox clients with expectations that they would sell their Bitcoins or at least part of it.

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board since last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will see if the market

NY Fed survey on consumer expectations: One year inflation 3.0% vs 3.2% priorBiden interview: I am runningBiden letter to congress says he’s ‘firmly commited’ to staying in the raceUS consumer credit outstanding +11.35B vs +9.50B expectedUS employment trends 110.27 vs 111.44 priorABC News: Presidential candidate Trump will announce his VP candidate by next MondayHamas leader

The opening statement from Fed Chair Jerome Powell wasn’t pre-released but will hit the wires at the top of the hour. After he reads them aloud, he will start taking questions from Senators. Expect the usual non-sense, grandstanding and occasional accidental comedy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Apart from what has already been posted there is no fresh news. JPY, EUR, AUD, CHF, GBP, NZD, CAD have all lost ground against the dollar in Asia morning trade. USD index, DXY: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board since last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will see if the market

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) runs a ‘shadow board’ of analysts. The Shadow Board is independent of the RBNZ and does not represent what the RBNZ is going to do but rather what their view is that the RBNZ should do. That is, the Shadows do not preview what they think will

Fed’s Powell said decisions are made meeting by meeting. He sees solid increases in consumer spending, moderate growth in capital spending, and a pickup in residential investment. He characterizes the labor market as strong but not overheated. He says that more good data would strengthen their confidence. He also said that elevated inflation is not

Robert Kaplan, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, is now at Goldman Sachs. During his time as head of the Dallas branch he was was well ahead of the curve saying inflation was not transitory. He spoke with CNBC on Monday, saying the Fed is going to lay the groundwork for a

Labor market is more-or-less back to pre-pandemic levelsWe’re very much balancing our two risks and that’s what we’re balancing these daysThe likely direction is that we begin to loosen policy at the right moment This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters with the info, citing unnamed ‘several trade sources’. Saudi crude oil exports to China will rebound in August to at least 44 million barrels following deep price cuts by state energy firm Saudi Aramco August exports to China will rise for the first time in four months, up from about 36 million barrels in

Japan finance minister Suzuki important to keep fiscal discipline to keep confidence in long-term fiscal healthclosely watching discussions at BOJ meeting with bond market Re BOJ meeting with bond market comment, the Bank of Japan is meeting with market participants over its moves to trim JGB purchases. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Should be ready to respond quickly to any shocks in one direction or the otherPrevious rate hikes will continue to dampen demand, output and inflation for months to comeWage growth can also be expected to ease That all sounds good but it’s not like that they are going to be doing so in July. Even

Fed Chair Powell will be testifying on Capitol Hill today (and tomorrow). The pre-release text of his comments were not released. HMMMM. Markets will be focused on his comments on inflation and the trend in inflation and for any clues on the potential for a initial rate cut going forward. With the uncertainty ahead, understanding

National Australia Bank monthly survey of business, for June 2024 Business Confidence 4.0 prior -3.0 Business Conditions also 4.0 prior 6.0the conditions index is a more objective measure compared with the sentiment-driven confidence indexindex of employment dropped 6 points to 0, under its long-run averagesales flat labour costs and purchase costs slowingproduct prices quarterly rate

Today is going to be another boring day on the data front with just the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index on the agenda. The report contains important data and gives a broad view on the economic conditions of small businesses in the United States which employ roughly 50% of private sector employees. It’s not

The major US stock indices are drifting back to the downside as the market moves toward the day’s close. The move has the S&P now back in negative territory down -0.04%. That has the three day record closes in jeopardy. The NASDAQ index is still clinging to a small 0.06% gain. A close higher would

Reuters with its polling result on what is expected from the Bank of Korea. to hold its base rate steady at a 15 year of 3.5% through Q3 2024all 40 economists in the poll expect the BOK to leave the base rate unchanged at the July 11 meetingto cut by 25bps in Q4 Cited as

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board since last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will see if the market

Noting these, but they do seem unlikely to be of interest to traders. 1500 GMT / 1100 US Eastern time Speech by Bank of England Executive Director for Insurance Supervision, Gareth Truran at Insurance Asset Risk Webinar, ‘Solvency UK – Time to Build’0805 GMT / 0405 US Eastern time: Victoria Cleland, Executive Director, Payments, gives

US June NFIB small business optimism index 91.5 vs 90.5 priorECB’s Panetta says can gradually reduce rates in line with disinflation processPowell to rock the boat later today?European stocks shoved lower at the open after the stutter yesterdayBOJ shares briefing material on meeting with bond market participantsWhat are the main events for today?Eurostoxx futures -0.1%

iFX EXPO Asia 2024 is heading back to Thailand for 2+ days of B2B networking at the world’s leading online trading event. Excitement is building for this year’s iFX EXPO Asia 2024 as the leading online trading expo returns to the bustling city of Bangkok for the third time. iFX EXPO Asia 2024, the world’s

The USD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins. Relatively speaking, however, the major currencies are scrunched together to start the new session. Today, the Fed Chair Powell will give his semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC. The recent data has

Crude oil stop futures are settling at $82.33. That is down $0.83 or -1.00%. The high for the day reached $83.32. The low reached $82.10. Technically, looking at the hourly chart, the price has moved back below its 200-hour moving average at $82.59. Recall that back on June 26 and again on June 28, the

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A note from Bank of America with their outlook for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We maintain our view on a December cut based on trends in inflation But. they add: Risks are tilting towards an earlier cutnet softness in the jobs report should keep expectations of a cut this year in market pricing

Ahead of the meeting, the BOJ already collected some opinions from bond market players as noted here. So, this is mainly to share that as a starting point for discussions today and tomorrow. Here are some things to note. On the size of reduction of bond purchases, the BOJ questioned whether purchases should be reduced

Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos spoke in an interview with Bloomberg TV, his main point on the EUR: “Imagine a situation where the US puts up a huge tariff wall against China,”“All these Chinese goods would have to get diverted into other markets including Europe, so therefore we would see a big deflationary shock in Europe.”

The S&P index moved back into negative territory with less than 30 minutes left in the trading day, but was able to recover into the close and once again ended the day in positive territory and at a new high closing level. It was the fourth consecutive record closing level for the S&P index .

Commerzbank on the Swiss National Bank and Swiss franc, looking for the currency to fall in the months ahead as the Bank cuts: SNB have clearly expressed that the strength of the Swissy is not welcomeSwiss National Bank is “therefore likely to counter this with further interest-rate cuts in the coming months” SNB could cut

Wilson spoke in an interview with Bloomberg TV, citing uncertainty over when the FOMC will cut rates, firms facing diminished pricing power, resulting an increased likelihood of disappointing earnings results. “The average company has not had good earnings results,” the big gain in the S&P 500 YTD 2024 has been powered by a small number

Fundamental Overview Crude oil has been on an incredible run since bottoming out around the $72.50 level in early June. The market eventually caught up to the positive drivers we had back then with the OPEC+’s extension of voluntary output cuts, and the pickup in economic activity seen from the global PMIs. The prospects of

The Topix might matter more for Japan these days, considering the shift in terms of ETF focus. But the Nikkei is still a key benchmark to watch, as it has been a cornerstone among Asian indices since forever. And with tech shares continuing to rip higher in the US, that is continuing to drive the

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.1% Meanwhile, US futures continue to look optimistic after the late rally yesterday. Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are up 0.2% on the day currently. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD rallied toward the end of last week’s trading, after sellers had their shot on the break of both the 100/200 day MAs earlier in the week. The move higher initially extended to the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, before correcting lower midweek. On Friday, buyers returned after the US jobs report

A snippet from a Monday report from UBS, analysts at the firm looking for a solid Q2 earnings season: say that S&P 500 earnings could grow by 7.4% say that assuming a typical pace of revisions/surprises, growth is likely to finish at 10.5-11.0%expect EPS to grow 5.0% and 2.0% when measured on an equal weighted

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There are just two to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0800 and 1.0875 levels. The former is arguably the one with more interest, as it lines up near the key daily moving averages. The technical significance there alongside bids at the figure

Prior was +6.40B Rates are high but borrowers continue to borrow. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce their decision at 2pm New Zealand time on Wednesday the 10th July which is is 0200 GMT on the 10thand 2200 US Eastern time on the 9th Earlier previews are here, no change to the cash rate is expected: New Zealand – RBNZ shadow board recommends the Reserve

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

More on the BOJ meetings with JGB market playersJapan finance minister Suzuki says fiscal discipline importantSaudi crude oil exports to China to rise for the first time in 4 monthsEuropean Central Bank’s Cipollone speaks on the digital euro on TuesdayTwo Bank of England speakers on Tuesday – may not be much in these for traders

South Korea’s central bank Governor Rhee Chang-yong spoke in a parliamentary session: said the Bank will consider trade-offs among the recent disinflation trend, growth and financial stability for future monetary policy operations I’m not sure what ‘trade-offs’ he is referring to. More: disinflation was expected to continue after recent positive signsnoted a pick-up in household

The Bank of Japan is holding in-person meetings with market participants over the next couple of days. Three meetings are scheduled with banks, securities firms and those buying bonds for financial institutions the meetings are aimed at gauging a realistic pace for a reduction of its Japanese Government Bond purchases.the Bank will be announcing the

The data releases due during Asian time on Tuesday are unlikely to move major FX around too much on the day. Traders here will be content to await Powell’s testimony Q&A: Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on TuesdayHow much more confident will Powell be on inflation? This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar,

That will likely continue to make for rather uninspiring price action among major currencies. The levels we’re seeing so far today are pretty much where we left off in European trading yesterday. It is only that the changes for the day today are leaving a lot to be desired, with narrow ranges still prevailing. USD/JPY

Data from China over the weekend showed the PBOC didn’t buy and gold in June, after buying none in May. That news has weighed on gold heavily today, erasing what looked like it could be a breakout on Friday. That highlights the push-and-pull in gold at the moment. Much of the run-up over the past

ANZ-Roy Morgan’s weekly survey of Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.3pts on the weekhit its second lowest level for the year This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Fed chair will make a trip to Congress this week to deliver his semi-annual Humprey Hawkins testimony. He starts in the Senate on Tuesday at 10 am then visits the House in a repeat the following day. Powell is great at staying on-message so I wouldn’t expect any big drama in the Q&A periods.

This via the Wall Street Journal’s Fed watcher Timiraos summarising inflation forecasts for June. The data is due on Thursday July 11 at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1230 GMT) and will be a key factor for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) into interest rate moves ahead. The Fed is expected to hold at

Analysts at Rabobank say that the data yesterday on Japanese wages (ICYMI, here: Japan inflation adjusted wages -1.4% y/y in May) could pose problems for the Bank of Japan raising interest rates. However, Rabo sees real wages recovering this quarter and next through due to the effects of wage rises agreed to in spring filtering

Equity researchers Oppenheimer: We are increasing our year-end target price for the S&P 500 to $5,900 (from $5,500) and raising our earnings projection to $255 from $250 for the S&P 500 in 2024. Our upwardly-adjusted price target and earnings projection assume a higher P/E multiple of 23.1x up from 22x with our earlier target Earlier

MUFG sees the long AUD/NZD trade as attractive due to diverging monetary policies between the RBA and RBNZ. The AUD has outperformed the NZD over the past month, driven by speculation of RBA policy shifts, while the RBNZ is expected to remain on hold. Key Points: Performance Divergence: AUD has been the best performing G10

We saw the first big hurricane of the year make landfall in the US today. It won’t be the last as the hurricane season doesn’t peak until September. The good news is that there are no systems anywhere in the Atlantic that look like they could spin up in the next few days. The bad

For a run down of the NFP, market moves, and implications, check this out: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 5 Jul: NFP for June sent the USD lower/yields tumbling On Sunday Wall Street Journal Fed watcher Timiraos said the result boosted the chance of a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut at the September

Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX flatFrance CAC 40 -0.5%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.4%Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% France looks headed for a political gridlock and that’s not making for much optimism to start the week. The overall risk mood is also more tepid though, with S&P 500 futures seen down 0.1%. This article was written by Justin Low

Headlines: Upsets still do happen in politicsWeekly update on interest rates expectationsECB’s Knot: There is no reason to cut rates in JulyBOE’s Haskel says would rather hold rates until there is more certainty on inflationBOJ maintains economic assessment for 5 of Japan’s 9 regions in latest ‘Sakura Report’Eurozone July Sentix investor confidence -7.3 vs 0.0

Earlier, Hamas said that Israel’s Netanyahu is placing hurdles in front of cease-fire negotiations. They called on mediators to interfere against maneuvers and crimes of Israel’s Netanyahu. Now Axios is reporting that a senior Hamas official believes that in the wake of new Israeli evacuation order in the Western neighborhoods of Gaza city, that negotiations

Ethereum held the April low in an earlier slump and is now trading flat. CNBC reports that a round of filing for spot ether ETFs with the SEC are due today and “approval could come as soon as this week or next.” This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Market Mood and Trends In today’s stock market session, a notable positive uptick was observed in semiconductor and other tech sectors, suggesting a resurgence of investor confidence in these industries. Contrarily, communication services showed a mixed response with noteworthy stocks like Google experiencing a decline. Here’s a deeper dive into how various sectors performed and

In political news, ABC news is reporting that presidential candidate Donald Trump will announces VP candidate by next Monday. Meanwhile, the Dems are in disarray as some call for Pres. Biden to withdrawal from his run for President, while he continues to push forward. It was announced earlier that Biden is to deliver remarks and

The USDCHF moved lower last week after testing a swing area and a key downward-sloping trend line successfully. The price decline ultimately took the price back below its 100-day moving average. That moving average now joins with the 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart as topside resistance near 0.8988 (see blue and green

Algorithms now handle more than 75% of the trading in spot markets for FX and those numbers are accelerating as trading desks roll out more and more software for clients. Bloomberg on Sunday wrote about Viper, Iguana and Chameleon — three algos at BNP Paribas that are executing an increasing number of orders. Rather than

On Friday, I did a video on the GBPJPY outlining the trend move and what needed to happen to break the buyers’ control – even by the a little. Trends are fast, directional, and tend to go further than what traders expect. As a result, it often makes sense to let the price action –

Need more certainty that inflation pressures have subsided sustainablyLooking closely at labour market conditions and inflation indicators such as services inflationRecent wage data is consistent with the idea that “underlying” unemployment rate has risenThere are considerable second-round effects at play currently, will fade over the coming years It’s good that his remarks are focusing on

S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% as we get set to open the week. The market rose strongly last week — as it often does during the first week of July — and closed at a record high. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD has been trading up and down today after last week’s move higher. The run higher today extended up to a new high going back to January. That high stalled right near the January 4 swing high before its rotation lower (at that time). The subsequent fall from the January 4 high, took 3/4

European traders have headed for the exits with mixed results in the major stock indices. France CAC was the worst performer with a decline of -0.63% after their election results ended in a political stalemate. Neither the right nor the left can likely for me coalition government. Investors are not very happy. The final numbers

It’s typical of the people taking over to downplay the situation they’re walking into. Cable certainly hasn’t shirked about the change though, as it climbs for the sixth straight day. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior €22.1 billion The trade surplus expanded but not in the right way, with exports slumping by 3.6% on the month while imports falling by 6.6% on the month. The details show that exports to China fell by 10.2% on the month while imports from the UK fell by 9.3% on the month. Foreign trade

The left wing New Popular Front coalition is projected to have won the most seats in France’s National Assembly after the election over the weekend. CBA analysts are wary that the parties in the coalition want a big increase in spending, adding to France’s already large budget deficit and deb. Also wary of how a

The dollar was dragged lower after the US job report on Friday here. The headline figure belies the softer details and markets eventually picked up on that to punish the greenback. Equities ripped higher as bond yields fell, as the hot start to July trading continues for stocks. There are some key technical considerations now

The worries surrounding the French election results saw EUR/USD open with a gap lower at 1.0800 earlier today. But the pair is keeping its upside bias, with buyers staving off a test of the figure level and the key daily moving averages at 1.0794-97. That allowed for a modest bounce with the pair now hovering

1 year inflation 3.0% vs 3.2% prior3 year inflation 2.9% vs 2.8% prior5 year inflation 2.8% vs 3.0% priorExpected home price rise 3% vs 3.3% priorConsumers see slower price growth for rent, food, medical care, college and gasExpected year-ahead earnings growth best since Sept 2023Perceptions of household financial situation lost ground in JuneThe mean perceived

Crypto coming under pressure. There is no obvious fresh catalyst We’re on approach to Friday’s low, there should be some work to do around here This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A look at today’s economic calendar shows why many Americans might have opted for a five-day weekend. The lone items are June employment trends at 10 am ET and consumer credit at 3 pm ET. Neither are market movers and the Fed calendar is also bare. In the market, the US dollar is under some

The S&P index has closed at a new record for three consecutive days. The NASDAQ index has closed at a record level for four consecutive days. Both of those indices are trading higher in early US trading to start the new trading week. Although higher, the Dow industrial average is leading the three majors. A

This is low-tier aggregate data but highlights the trend lower. “The ETI fell in June, continuing the downward trajectory observed since the measure peaked in March 2022,” said Will Baltrus, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “June’s ETI downtick signals employment could fall in the second half of 2024. However, the index remains above its

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 50 bps (93% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 42 bps (78% probability of no change at the next meeting) BoE: 50 bps (62% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) BoC: 55 bps (60% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) RBNZ: 40 bps

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Biden spoke in an interview with MSNBC and said: I am not going to explain any more about what I should or shouldn’t do: I am running. It’s a pivotal week but this could also prove to be one of the all-time bad political miscalculations. As for markets, Bridgewater is out with comments on a

The USDCAD moved lower last week and into a key swing area between 1.3596 and 1.36154. That swing area is joined by its rising 200 day moving average currently at 1.3596 as well. The low price extended to 1.36017 before bouncing higher after the jobs reports in Canada and the US on Friday The subsequent

According to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), 2024 is on course to rank as the hottest year on record as climate change continues to push temperatures to record highs so far this year. They are pinning it as an approximately 95% probability that this year will beat the record set in 2023 last

Says he had extensive conversations with Democratic party leaders and elected officialsSays he would not be running if he didn’t think he was the best person to defeat TrumpVoters alone pick presidential candidates, not pundits, donors or the press At the end of the day, the only one who can push Biden out at this

1615 GMT / 1215 US Eastern time: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Jonathan Haskel speech: “UK inflation: What’s done and what’s to come?” organised by the ESCoE statistics research group Also coming up from the UK, though I haven’t got a time for it: UK Chancellor Reeves speaks Monday: Focus on making economic

Prior 0.3 It’s a bit of a setback after eight straight months of improvement in the index. There were declines in both the current situation and expectations readings, with German economic sentiment turning lower in particular. What is more damning is that the hopeful boost from the Euro 2024 championships doesn’t look to be materialising.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on TuesdayBank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Haskel is speaking on inflation on MondayBank of America doubts over US inflation returning to 2% – “gimme shelter (disinflation)”Analysts wary on the EUR in the wake of the French electionUK Chancellor Reeves speaks Monday: Focus on making economic growth a

For many in the Democratic party, the July 4th long weekend would have been an opportune moment for President Biden to announce that he was no longer seeking re-election. Instead, he doubled down and survived an unremarkable sit-down interview with ABC. A total of 5 congressional Democrats are now publicly calling for Biden to withdraw

Last Friday, we got the US NFP report. Now, I’m not an economist, so I try to look at it from a market participant’s perspective gathering analyses from the experts in labour market data. Overall, the report was relatively soft. The 3-month moving average of employment gains fell to 177K, which is the lowest since

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, gold spiked to the upside following the US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. That made the real yields to drop and gold to accelerate to the upside. This has been the case for

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the 3-major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. EURUSD: The EURUSD is trading near session highs as the North American session begins, and looks toward eight swing area between 1.08538 and 1.08617. The 1.08618 level also corresponds with the 50% midpoint of the range

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USDJPY moved down to test a key swing level (and found buyers). The US stocks – after closing at records in the S&P and the Nasdaq – are little changed. European markets are higher. Yields in the

Here’s the detailed breakdown: On price trends, the BOJ notes that many regions are saying wage hikes are spreading among smaller firms. So, that is a positive consideration that the central bank is laying out as they seek to hike rates further down the road. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Monday has no significant events scheduled, but Tuesday, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell, who is set to testify on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington DC. His testimony will continue Wednesday and other FOMC members are also expected to deliver their remarks throughout the week. Last

Domestic sight deposits CHF 444.4 bn vs CHF 443.0 bn prior Swiss sight deposits have stabilised somewhat in the past few weeks, after having fallen in the months before. Here’s the trend: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Light crude oil futures technical analysis and trade idea, for short 👋 Hello traders and investors! This is Itai Levitan from ForexLive.com, bringing you the latest technical analysis and trade ideas for Light Crude Oil Futures. Let’s dive into the current market setup and discuss potential strategies for your consideration. Oil futures trend analysis 📈

German DAX futures -0.1%French CAC 40 futures -0.5%UK FTSE futures -0.1% The more tepid mood in US futures also isn’t too helpful, with S&P 500 futures down 0.2% on the day. But for European equities, it’s mostly about the French elections. I shared some thoughts earlier here. This article was written by Justin Low at

British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) survey: 39% of member companies it surveyed expected to raise prices over the next three monthsdown from 46% in its previous survey published in April More results: sales and cashflow improved in Q2 2024 to pre-pandemic levelsshare of firms expecting an increase in turnover in the next 12 months rose

The next truly open meeting is in SeptemberWe are comfortable with the progress in disinflation, market pricing on rate cuts It isn’t anything that we don’t already know. Knot also adds that the date in which they must meet the inflation target must not slip beyond 2025. Well, we’ll see. I mean, they have a

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but growing. We will see if the market will be

Australian Home Loans for May 2024 -1.7%, dropping back from the strong performance in April: prior +4.8% Owner – Occupier Loan value -2.0% m/m prior +4.3% Investor Loan Value -1.3% m/m prior +5.6% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0785 level. It isn’t one that offers much technical significance but could act alongside the key daily moving averages at 1.0794-97 in locking any downside price action in the session ahead. The reaction to the French election

The data agenda is of lower-tier releases only. Not likely to shove major FX rates around too much upon release. Of most interest is likely to be the wages data from Japan. Japanese policy authorities are awaiting wage growth to fuel inflation and thus moves to further normalise monetary policy (the BoJ meet on the

ICYMI, info on the US employment report, market response etc is here: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 5 Jul: NFP for June sent the USD lower/yields tumbling Meanwhile, via Goldman Sachs note: the report overall was softer-than-expected, and downward revisions lowered the three-month average pace to +177k from +249k as previously reportedThe industry composition was

Rick Rieder is BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income. He’s posted up a tweet storm on Friday’s jobs report, in brief: there is a very gradual, but persistent, moderation within the broader employment pictureWhen you sum up the conditions of these employment indicators and the trend that they clearly depict, in terms of cooling, and

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It was supposed to be Le Pen’s coronation and it ended up being anything but that. Her National Rally (RN) faction was handily defeated over the weekend as the French people rejected a far-right government. The combined efforts by Macron’s Ensemble bloc and the leftish coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP) worked wonders in creating

Data from China over the weekend showed the PBOC didn’t buy and gold in June, after buying none in May. The two consecutive month pause comes after the Bank had been a consistent buyer in the 18 months prior. China held 72.80 million troy ounces of gold at the end of June, same as the

Chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Thomas Jordan spoke on in an interview published on Friday by Le Temps. Adam had the headlines. ICYMI Jordan had pointed comments on the Swiss franc: CHF can be significantly influenced by political “uncertainties” both within Europe and globally“This is something we need to take into consideration” and

TMGM, a trailblazer in global online trading and investment services, took center stage as the Gold Sponsor of the Vanuatu Financial Services Commission’s (VFSC) groundbreaking Second Symposium on Virtual Assets. This pivotal event, held on Thursday, June 27, 2024, in Port Vila, convened an elite gathering of finance brokers, regulators, government officials, and international experts

Coming up on Monday, a speech from Rachel Reeves, Britain’s first female Chancellor Will cover topics such as:wholesale planning reforms to make it easier to buildgreater focus on driving through key infrastructure projectsboost housebuilding“Where governments have been unwilling to take the difficult decisions to deliver growth – or have waited too long to act –

Today is going to be a boring day on the data front as we don’t have literally anything on the calendar. The markets will likely trade based on the Friday’s US NFP report or we might see some general consolidation in the next couple of days as we head into the US CPI on Thursday.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. The mover in this very time is EUR, down from its level late Friday after the French election appears to have reulsted

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce their decision at 2pm New Zealand time on Wedensday the 10th July, which is is 0200 GMT on the 10th and 2200 US Eastern time on the 9th. Brief comments via Westpac on what to expect: we are not anticipating any change in the OCR – which will

Bank of America say that the confidence of the Federal Reserve seeing inflation returning to 2% will come down to shelter inflation. BoA cite the importance of the sector due to its weight in cor CPI and core PCE inflation. BoA argue that if shelter does not move lower, then achieving 2% core inflation requires

Its beginning to feel like Asia FX is going to sit on hand awaiting Powell on Tuesday, and perhaps some feedback from him on the jobs report Friday, ICYMI: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 5 Jul: NFP for June sent the USD lower/yields tumbling On Tuesday, 9 July 2024, at 1400 GMT / 1000 user

Substantial losses in the crypto and decentralized finance (DeFi) sectors YTD amounting to USD 1.19billion. The report comes via Finance Magnates: citing a report from blockchain security firm CertiK: phishing attacks emerged as the most damaging vector, accounting for $497.7 million in losses across 150 incidents. “Q2 2024 experienced the highest losses since Q3 of

Japan’s inflation-adjusted, ie real, wages fell in May for a record 26th straight month, down 1.4% y/y April was -1.2%falling after inflation wages is dampening household spending, which in turn is making the BoJ’s efforts to normalise monetary policy uncertainweak yen and higher commodity prices pushed up the cost of imports There are some better

Let me first jump to CBA’s conclusion on what to watch ahead: We expect a Q2 trimmed mean CPI of 0.9%/qtr or less would see the RBA leave the cash rate on hold in August (our forecast is 0.9%/qtr). An outcome of 1.1% /qtr or above would mean an August rate hike is more likely

KiwiBank with a forthright preview of the RBNZ meeting this week (Wednesday) Any talk of hikes now would be overkill. The data has clearly turned. Of course, there are still some hurdles to get through. We still need to see inflation back within the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. A hard task that should be accomplished

The French left-wing alliance is projected to win 172 to 192 seats. This is well short of a majority but is ahead of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, looking at coming third with 132 to 152 seats. President Macron’s centrist party, Ensemble, will win 150 to 170 seats. None of these three has a

Week Ahead 7th-12th July: Sun: French Election (second round)Mon: CNB Minutes (June), Eurogroup Informal meeting of Competitiveness Ministers; Japanese Overtime Pay (May),German Trade Data (May), EZ Sentix Index (July), BoI Announcement, US Employment TrendsTue: BoJ Bond Meeting 9-10, EIA STEO; Australian Consumer Sentiment, Hungarian CPI (June), Mexican 12-monthInflation (June), Powell Testimony (Senate)Wed: RBNZ Announcement, OPEC

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Japan Wage data.Tuesday: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Fed Chair Powell Testimony.Wednesday: Japan PPI, China CPI, RBNZ Policy Decision, Fed Chair Powell Testimony.Thursday: UK GDP, US CPI, US Jobless Claims.Friday: New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, US PPI, US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Tuesday Fed Chair Powell will testify to the Senate

I believe that global central bankers are on the verge of making a growth-wrecking mistake. Generals always fight the last war and central bankers are going to continue to fight the ghost of inflation, even as it becomes increasingly clear that the inflationary threat is over and the bigger risk is recession. On Thursday, ECB

US Sen. Mark Warren is seeking to eight symbol a group of Democratic senators to ask Pres. Biden to exit the race for president. Biden has been losing support on Capitol Hill and also amongst his financial supporters according to sources.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF is trading to new lows for the week today after rallying into resistance at the start of the trading week (on Monday). That upside resistance came within a swing area between 0.9044 and 0.90565. The subsequent move to the downside did try to find support against its 100-day moving average midweek, but ultimately

As the trading week works toward a close, the NZDUSD is trading near highs for the week. Technically the move to the upside has also breached the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.61116 and the 200 bar moving average on the same chart at 0.61267. The high price today reached 0.6139. As we

Sun, Jul 7 All Day: EUR – French Parliamentary Elections Mon, Jul 8 No major events listed Tue, Jul 9 10:00 am: USD – Fed Chair Powell Testifies on Capital Hill1:01 PM ET: U.S. Treasury sells 3-year notes9:30 pm ET: CNY – CPI y/y. Estimate 0.4% versus 0.3% last month9:30 pm ET: CNY – PPI

NASDAQ closed at new record levels each day of this trading weekUS Sen Warren seeks to assemble a group of Democratic senators to ask Biden to exit raceKey events and releases for traders in the upcoming trading weekCrude oil futures settle at $83.16Geopolitics: Head of Israel’s Mossad returned from Doha after initial cease-fire meetingsBaker Hughes

All three major indices closed higher today. For the NASDAQ it closed higher for the fourth consecutive day. Each of those days was a new record close. The S&P index has higher for its fourth consecutive day with three of those closes being at new record levels. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow

Crude oil futures are settling the day $83.16. That’s down $0.72 or -0.86% on the day. The high price today reached a $84.49. The low price extended to $83.12. Although lower today, the price is up 2.15% for the trading week. At session highs for the week the presence of $3.05. Session was the price

Baker Hughes weekly rig count: Oil 479, unchanged on the week. Natural Gas 101, +4 on the weekTotal rig count 581, +4 on the week Crude oil is currently trading at $84.04 up $0.17 or 0.20%. The high price reached $84.52 (that was the high for the week). The low price was at $83.02. The

Headlines: What NFP data could surprise the market?Labour party wins UK general election, beating 326-seat majority threshold in the CommonsBitcoin tumbles to its lowest since February as downside momentum intensifiesFed’s Williams: Still a way to go to reach our 2% targetGermany May industrial production -2.5% vs +0.2% m/m expectedEurozone May retail sales +0.1% vs +0.2%

In geopolitical news: Head of Israel’s Mossad has returned from Doha after initial cease-fire meetings. Negotiations are to resume next weekGaps remain regarding deal for hostage release and Gaza cease-fire This is according to PM Netanyahu’s office This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

In the kickstart FX video from July 5, 2024, I take a technical look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. Today the US jobs report was mixed with the June non-farm payroll jobs higher than expectations but revisions to the prior two months of offsetting those gains. The unemployment

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast growth estimate for Q2 growth falls to 1.8% down from 1.93% on June 28 The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2024:Q2 is 1.8%, with the 50% probability interval at [0.8, 2.9] and the 68% interval at [0.3, 3.3]. The Staff Nowcast is 2.1% for 2024:Q3.News from this week’s

I posted this during the Asian timezone but doing so again now for those who may have missed it. You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month) result.The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the

Prior -0.1%; revised to +0.1% It’s another dismal reading for German industrial output, once again reflecting rather poor conditions in the sector. If you exclude the energy and construction sectors, production actually fell by 2.9% in May compared to April. Looking at the details, there were falls across the board in the production of capital

The USDCAD traded to the lowest level since June 3 earlier today, and in doing so tested the lower basement area down to 1.35972. The 200-day moving years was just below that level at 1.35953. The low price today reached 1.3601 as buyers /profit takers leaned against the swing area. The combination of the US

Prior -0.1%; revised to 0.0% House prices eased marginally in the UK and remained thereabouts for a third successive month now. The average UK property value is now seen at £288,455. Halifax notes that it reflects “a market that remains subdued, though overall activity has been recovering”. This article was written by Justin Low at

Reuters have polled analysts on expectations for the RBNZ’s interest rates path ahead. The next policy meeting is on July 10, with no change the consensus expectation. Tbe Bank is holding rates at their highest in 15 years, at 5.5% for the Official Cash Rate (OCR), due to sticky high inflation. The most recent official

Prior was 52.0Non-seasonally adjusted vs 59.1 prior This is a low-tier indicator but the Bank of Canada is in a tight spot right now. The market was 50/50 ahead of the Canadian jobs report but has shifted to 56% in favor of a cut. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Interest rates are our main policy toolAlso ready for forex interventions Given a cyclical slowing and potential for a hard landing in the US and other parts of the global economy, there’s a good case to buy the Swiss franc and I think that willingness to intervene will be tested. His comments on inflation are

The AUDUSD has been trading mostly between 0.6573 and 0.67134 going back to early May. This week, the price rope to the upside reaching the highest level since early January. Today, the price corrected lower upheld sport against the old highs near 0.6708/0.6713. The price broke higher. The price corrected down to retest the break

The NASDAQ is trading near session highs, up 153 points or 0.85% at 18341.51. A closed higher today would be the fourth consecutive day with record high levels for the index. The S&P is on its way to its third consecutive record high with enterprise currently up 20 points or 0.36% at 5557.00. The Dow

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. All else

Prior month 26.7KEmployment change -1.4K vs 22.5K estimateUnemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.3% estimate. Prior month employment rate 6.2%Full-time employment -3.4K vs -35.6K last monthPart-time employment 1.9K vs 62.4K last monthParticipation rate 65.3% vs 65.4% last monthAverage hourly wages YoY 5.60% vs 5.20% last month Weaker than expected job gain but the unemployment rate moves higher.

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX +0.1%UK FTSE 100 -0.6%French CAC -0.4%Italy MIB -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.5% There was some early optimism in European stocks that faded in the final 90 minutes of trading. I expect a sigh of relief in French stocks no matter the results on Monday but at the same time, there is

The current tally sees them at 337 seats, surpassing the 326 seats needed for a working majority in the House of Commons. The result is as expected, with it being a landslide victory for Labour. There’s still more counting to do and they should win anything just north of 400 seats based on current projections.

Nick Timiraos says today’s jobs report wasn’t alarming enough to put a July rate cut on the table (pricing is just 5%) but says that it could open up a real debate about September. The June jobs report will make the July Fed meeting more interesting because there may be—for the first time all year—a

Household Spending for May 2024 -1.8% y/y expected 0.1%, prior 0.5% For the m/m -0.3% expected +0.5%, prior -1.2% Cited amongst reason for the dramatic drop: higher prices continued to squeeze consumers’ purchasing power Well, that’s a terrible result! Japanese policymakers are trying to achieve sustained economic growth underpinned by solid wages and durable inflation.

Market Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a dynamic trading landscape, with a standout performance from technology majors like AMD and Google amidst varying sectoral trends. The snapshot highlights key movements that provide a bellwether for investor sentiments and market direction. 🔍 Sector Analysis Semiconductors: A noticeable divergence appears within this sector. Advanced Micro Devices

Japan finance minister Suzuki says weak yen is pushing up import costsweak yen is having an impact on priceshas concerns on While still only words, these are comments are stronger than what we usually get from Suzuki. More: will monitor stock and FX markets with vigilance Ok, that’s more like his usually wishy-washy self! This

German DAX futures +0.2%French CAC 40 futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.3% No big setbacks for European equities on the week, after the Monday optimism was tempered a fair bit initially. With that, even the CAC 40 is on course for 3% gains this week and erasing last week’s losses. This article was written by Justin

A July move is a non-starter but the odds of a September rate cut are currently at ~80%. As for the year itself (four meetings left), a total of ~48 bps of rate cuts are being priced in. In other words, traders are seeing roughly two rate cuts by the Fed before year-end. Looking at

The Canadian dollar softened following a rise in June unemployment to 6.4% from 6.2%. The market was expecting a tick higher to 6.3% but the economy shed 1400 jobs in the month and signs of weakness are mounting. That’s why the recent drop in USD/CAD may present a buying opportunity. The pair has dipped on

As traders in the US return from the Independence Day holiday reluctantly, they will need to face the US and Canada jobs reports (locked and loaded). The expectations are for US non-farm payroll to come in at 191K vs 272K, the employment rate to stay at 4.0% (unchanged from last week), and average hourly earnings

The major US stock indices are trading mixed after the mixed US jobs report. Non-farm payroll jobs rose 206K versus 190K, but permanent revisions were lower by over 100 K. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4.0%. Moreover, government jobs added 70K mile and education and health added another 82K which cared for 74%

This (in brief) from ING rapid response to the UK election results, based on the exit polling: Election result gives green light to August rate cut Markets are pricing a 60% chance of an August rate cut, and we think that’s too lowwatch out for comments from BoE rate-setters next week, which might seek to

Further progress seen on inflation this year but still need ‘greater confidence’ before moving to cut ratesHousing-related inflation to gradually declineStill significant disparities in the jobs marketFinancial system sound and resilientValuations high relative to fundamentals in major asset classesFull report“Inflation eased notably last year and has shown modest further progress so far this year”​​. “The

When the market trends, traders are better served to understand when the market shifts the trend, versus trying to pick a top or bottom depending on which way the market is trending. For the GBPJPY, it has been trending over the last seven or so months. The price has also been above (and comfortably) its

I like how there’s no wasting time in naming a cabinet in the UK. In most places this can take weeks or months. Rachel Reeves is in a delicate spot after the gilt blowup under Liz Truss. This appointment isn’t a surprise and she’s aiming to project stability, saying she would never “play fast and

Interest and liquidity is much thinner than normal on the afternoon/evening of the Independence Day holiday. But, CME futures are open for trade. For more info, here: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The signs were already building yesterday, with sellers testing the waters below the 200-day moving average (blue line). That is eventually leading to a break of the May low today and the momentum continues to run. Well, it’s definitely not looking pretty on the charts. In terms of catalysts, people are pointing to Mt. Gox

It’s jobs day! Be sure to read: June non-farm payrolls by the numbers — the headwinds are starting to blow The market is antsy about a softening economy so I don’t think a weak report will goose risk assets the way it used to, but that remains to be seen. A strong report would likely

We have to return politics to public servicesWe must show that politics can be a force for goodOur task is nothing less than renewing the ideas that hold the country togetherVows a transformed Labour party, pledges to govern for the whole country It’s pretty much his winning speech, so it’s mostly just rousing remarks. Sunak

Coincident index 116.5 vs 115.2 prior The assessment of the coincident index has been changed as being from “signaling a possible turning point” previously to now “halting to fall”. That comes amid the uptick in recent sentiment as evident by the improvement in the readings above. The leading index is also seen at the highest

I posted on this earlier: The PBOC is preparing capacity for large scale yuan bond sales Bloomberg (gated) had the report. The PBOC is preparing to step into the Chinese government bond market in a larger way, seeking to stem the bond rally by selling medium- and long-term bonds it plans to borrow from the

Victor Orban met with Putin today and now we get comments from the Russian President: We are grateful for the visit to MoscowOrban relayed to us the western point of viewRelations with the EU are at their lowest pointOrban called for ceasefireKyiv does not want to stop the war until it’s wonWe discussed possible ways

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The GBP,

Prior was +272K (revised to +218K) Details of the May 2024 jobs report: Two-month net revision -111K vs -15K priorUnemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.0% expectedPrior unemployment rate 4.0%Participation rate 62.6% vs 62.5% priorU6 underemployment rate 7.4% vs 7.4% priorAverage hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expectedPrior avg hourly earnings +0.4% m/mAverage hourly earnings +3.9% y/y

The long-term, secular case for gold is that Russia, China, India and the Middle East are buying in increasing amounts. However the gold rally stalled after data revealed that Chinese official gold buying paused in May. There’s also some thing of a mania around gold in Chinese retail circles that argues for caution. However the

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

0940 GMT / 0540 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives keynote before the 4th Suresh Tendulkar Memorial Lecture event organized by the Reserve Bank of India I don’t expect him to drop any clues on the NFP, if he even has any. But still, Williams is always worth

Fundamental Overview After a couple of weeks of consolidation, the S&P 500 this week found some footing and eventually extended the rally into a new all-time high following the soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view

We still have a way to go to reach our 2% target on a sustained basis. We are committed to getting the job done.Uncertainty will continue to be the defining characteristic of the monetary policy landscape for the foreseeable future. There’s nothing new here that he hasn’t already said recently. This article was written by

Prior -0.5%; revised to -0.2% The reading is marginally off estimates but a better revision is seen for April at least. Here is the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY tells a story of a market that isn’t sure what it wants to do with the non-farm payrolls data. The headline beat estimates but it’s clearly a dovish report with large downward revisions, higher unemployment and weak private payrolls. “Overall, it was a softer read on the labor market, albeit not dramatically weaker,” writes

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The AUD,

Discover how to accurately spot and trade the inverted hammer across different markets and timeframes The post The Inverted Hammer (A Definitive Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The broad TOPIX index of Japanese stocks hit a record high on Thursday, finally surpassing the high set in December of 1989. Comments via an analyst at Swiss private bank Julius Baer, in summary indicate further upside ahead, citing: corporate reformscurrency and flowspay hikesearnings revisionsgeopoliticslarge market caps are adding to the positive outlook for Japanese

In the Asian session, Eamonn published a nice article on the range of estimates for today’s US NFP report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction. Here’s what Eamonn wrote on this topic: WHY THE RANGE OF ESTIMATES IS IMPORTANT Data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to

European Central Bank President Lagarde spoke with Portuguese TV, RTP on Thursday: “We have to remain vigilant and we have to be confident that inflation is continuously down and that the data that we receive on wages, on profit, on activity, reinforce our confidence that we are on a path to win the fight,” More:

What a mauling. Among the big names on the list are Penny Mordaunt, leader of the House of Commons, and Grant Shapps, defence minister. The eleven in total now surpasses the previous record of seven Cabinet ministers losing their seats in 1997, when Tony Blair brought the Labour party to power at the time. The

There’s not much in it among major currencies but the dollar is continuing to hold more sluggish on the week. EUR/USD is holding within a 20 pips range today, up 0.1% to 1.0825 while USD/JPY is down 0.3% to 160.73. The latter started to lose some steam in trading yesterday and the near-term chart reflects

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% The CAC 40 index has bounced back quite well this week, up around 3% and erasing the losses from the week before. Still, we’re not out of the tunnel yet. The second round of the French elections is coming up later

It’s ok to fall. It’s not ok to stay there. Perhaps that’s the new motto at Elon Musk’s Tesla. The company has erased its year-to-date losses by adding a remarkable $150 billion in market value in just three days. Just a few months ago, Tesla was a laughingstock on Wall Street. Wells Fargo famously called

Prior -€7.58 billion; revised to -€7.56 billion Here is the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

● The US Department of Labor will release its report on Friday, the 5th of July. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) are expected to have declined to 190,000 in June. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.0%. ● Since the beginning of the year, the interest of financial market participants has increasingly shifted towards data

Via The Block: Collapsed cryptocurrency exchange Mt Gox moved over 47,000 BTC -6.22% to another wallet late evening on Thursdaycomes ahead of its impending $9 billion worth of bitcoin repayment to creditors, “This significant payout, amounting to US$9 billion, is expected to add substantial selling pressure as the market absorbs the additional supply,” CoinDesk adds:

Mt Gox and German cops hit Bitcoin lower, under US$56KEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde is speaking again on FridayJapan finance minister Suzuki says weak yen is pushing up import costsNew York Federal Reserve President John Williams speaks on Friday, pre NFPMore on the People’s Bank of China move to stabilize government bond yeildsPBOC sets USD/

Today is an important day for financial markets as we will get to see the latest US NFP report. The Fed is now more focused on the labour market than inflation, and an unexpected deterioration might force their hand to cut rates. The European session is pretty empty on the data front as we will

Via CNBC: Disney heiress, wealthy Democratic donors say they won’t finance the party until Joe Biden drops out Abigail Disney: “I intend to stop any contributions to the party unless and until they replace Biden at the top of the ticket. This is realism, not disrespect. Biden is a good man and has served his

French poll puts National Rally well short of absolute majorityA Fed official highlighted ‘some warning signs the real economy is weakening’ Here are twoPreview: June non-farm payrolls by the numbers — the headwinds are starting to blowECB accounts show some mixed views on confidence towards inflation outlook Markets: US equities and fixed income closedWTI crude

The data we just had was very disappointing indeed: Japan data – May household spending -1.8% y/y (expected +0.1%) A Japanese government official: higher food prices pushed down spendingweaker yen pushed down overseas package tour spending The thing about the weaker yen is its also contributed to a massive surge of inbound tourism into Japan,

USD/JPY had popped earlier on the poor spending data: Japan data – May household spending -1.8% y/y (expected +0.1%) After highs circa 161.40 USD/JPY gave it all back. The momentum was added to by a little more aggression in the comments from Japan’s finance minister Suzuki earlier: Japan finance minister Suzuki says weak yen is

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD and a rather large one at that at the 1.0800 mark. However, the US holiday yesterday and dollar sluggishness on the week has seen price action move beyond the range of what I would’ve expected to be the upper

The UK election came in pretty much as expected: UK exit poll tips a solid win to Labour, 410 seats – new UK government incomingGBP is little changed after the UK election exit pollUK political stability (relative to elsewhere) will support UK markets aheadElection result gives green light to August BoE rate cut – GBP

GBP is little changed. *** Joint exit poll from BBC, ITV and Sky News show a huge landslide to the Labour Party. Labour to win 410 seats, the most by any party since 2001Conservatives routed with 131 seats, the fewest since the party was founded in 1834 The others: Liberal Democrats on 61Reform UK on

A note from Bank of America prior to the election said that it appeared to be a non-event for UK markets. Which was correct given the opinion polls overwhelmingly favouring the new government. UK exit poll tips a solid win to Labour, 410 seats – new UK government incomingGBP is little changed after the UK

1215 GMT / 0815 US Eastern time: Introductory remarks followed by Q&A by ECB board member Frank Elderson in panel “Embedding data culture in supervision” at Data Innovation for Future of Regulation (DIFoR) Conference organised by the Financial Conduct Authority 17515 GMT / 1315 US Eastern time: On-stage conversation with ECB President Christine Lagarde and

People’s Bank of China said to be readying capacity for ‘hundreds of billions’ in yuan bond sales. Aimed at tempering the bond rally by creating a multibillion-yuan pool of bonds it’ll borrow from major banks, then sell themWill buy and sell bonds ‘based on market conditions.to borrow bonds on an open-ended unsecured basisPBOC has signed

You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. Taking a look at the

Exit poll here: UK exit poll tips a solid win to Labour, 410 seats – new UK government incoming GBP/USD is around 1.2759, barely changed EUR/GBP also little changed around 0.8473 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

None of the data from Japan today is likely to impact major FX rates (yen specifically) upon release. Traders will be biding their time, waiting for the NFP: Preview: June non-farm payrolls by the numbers — the headwinds are starting to blow This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times

I say ‘near certain’ to be conservative, but to find another election that’s so clear cut as this you’d have to head to Russia or China and the ilk. Anyway, the exit poll is are due, from the BBC, Sky, and ITV, at 10pm London time, which is 5pm US Eastern time (and 2100 GMT

What’s expected: Consensus estimate +190K (Goldman Sachs at the low at +140K, FAO Economics at the high at +250K)May +272K vs +185K expectedPrivate +160K estimate vs +229K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.0% vs 4.0% priorParticipation rate: 62.5% priorPrior underemployment U6 7.4%Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% y/y vs +4.1% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3%

ETH has been losing ground since early last month. Its extended the loss a little more today: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.1% With it being a US holiday today, the market mood is looking rather subdued. Major currencies also aren’t up to much with narrow ranges still holding for the most part. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Some members felt that the data available since the last meeting had not increased their confidence that inflation would converge to the 2% target by 2025These members also viewed risks to the inflation outlook as being tilted to the upsideWage growth had surprised to the upside and inflation seemed to be stickierServices inflation momentum was

The main line of thinking on bitcoin is that the recent round of selling pressure is related to the distribution of the 141,000 bitcoin from the Mt. Gox bankruptcy. It’s hard to imagine that was 10 years ago but at the time bitcoin was trading at around $600. It will likely turn out that holding

I spoke with Andy Bell at BNNBloomberg yesterday in a wide-ranging interview about the state of global markets and what’s coming in a cyclical slowdown. I also got to touch on the disruption coming from AI and why central bankers are wrong about inflation. Some highlights: Canadian Dollar and Interest Rates: “Canada is a country

Australia – trade balance for May 2024 The rise in exports is the best in 9 months, but this was overshadowed by the rise in imports. A huge turnaround in imports from the -7% drop in April. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I have a hard time imagining the UK election will be much of a market mover, given that the results have been a foregone conclusion since the start of the campaign. It will be a Labour majority, and a large one. How large? We will get a good idea at 10 pm London time, which

On Tuesday, comments from Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee got my attention. He took a more cautious stance on the economy and said he sees “some warning signs the real economy is weakening.” He also spent the past year talking about the potential for a ‘golden path’ or soft landing but sounded more cautious, saying

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +0.4%UK FTSE 100 +0.8%French CAC +0.8%Italy MIB +0.8%Spain IBEX +0.1% I have a longstanding belief that you should always buy equity indexes ahead of election results. They create so much angst but very little change and the market generally breathes a sigh of relief, no matter the results. This

Prior 2.4% The Swiss jobless rate remains table in June, with the number of registered unemployed persons falling to 104,518 from 105,465 in May. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Yesterday we got some notable misses in the US Jobless Claims and the US ISM Services PMI. Intial Claims remain pretty much stable around cycle lows and inside the 200K-250K range created since 2022. This shows that layoffs are not accelerating and remain at low levels, which is also something that we’ve seen from the

Prior 54.7 Overall activity continues to expand in the UK construction sector, although the rise has cooled since the month before. That owes to a renewed downturn in housing activity. Meanwhile, commercial activity continues to expand at a sharp rate and that is helped by a modest rise in civil engineering activity as well. S&P

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke with UK media, BBC radio: getting inflation back to 2% will take time still much data to be had on the economywarns against prolonged high interest rates This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a US holiday so I’m taking all the market moves today with a grain of salt but the general theme is US dollar selling, perhaps in a delayed reaction to yesterday’s weak ISM services reading (it fell to a four-year low). In the past few hours, the euro has taken advantage and is now

Firms are telling us that wage pressures are coming down In other words, he’s trying to maintain the narrative that they believe inflation will continue to ease going into next year. And more importantly, that price pressures will continue to converge towards their 2% target. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

There is an increasingly-clear picture of a French parliament with a hard split between the left and right, leaving the centrists as the kingmakers. it takes 289 seats to achieve an absolute majority and the latest poll from IFOP projects: Far right National Rally at 210-240 seatsLeft wing New Popular Front at 170-200 seatsMacron’s centrists

Trading conditions today will be marred by the US holiday, so there might not be much in it. Major currencies are holding in tight ranges so far today after having seen the dollar ease slightly yesterday on the back of a softer US ISM services PMI here. Meanwhile, equities continue to rip higher and that’s

Earlier : Ongoing Washington machinations – Biden and Harris to meet with Democrat Governors.Kamala Harris memecoin KAMA has rocketed higherTrump says Biden is quitting the race, “that means we have Kamala.”Biden met with Democrat state governors – Biden determined to beat Trump at ballot box Reuters with more info on Wednesday evening (US time) developments:

Yesterday, I spoke with Kitco News in a great interview with Jeremy Szafron that focused on the US dollar and the macro outlook. Some highlights: Federal Reserve’s Strategy: “I think in this instance it’s going to be especially damaging for the Federal Reserve because they…always fight the last war. They’re fighting inflation and the market

It’s election day in the UK but there is no mystery about what is going to happen. The Conservatives are going down in flames with YouGov’s MRP poll forecasting Keir Starmer’s Labour will win 431 seats, up 229 from 2019, with the Tories on 102, down 263 seats from the last election. That would leave

Headlines: The UK heads to the polls todayWhat has changed after yesterday’s US data?Bitcoin drops again, faces mounting technical pressureECB’s Lane: Wage tracker shows much lower wage growth in 2025 and 2026ECB accounts show some mixed views on confidence towards inflation outlookGermany May industrial orders -1.6% vs +0.5% m/m expectedGermany June construction PMI 39.7 vs

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Japan earthquake – M5.4, off Chiba prefectureJapan stocks – Topix index, and Nikkei have each hit a record highECB speakers on Thursday, 4 July 2024 include Lane, McCaul and CipolloneBiden: “No one is pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end”Ether has dipped to its lowest since May 20Australian May

Today the US is on holiday for Independence Day and the calendar is pretty much empty. The main event was the Swiss CPI which missed expectations and should raise a bit more the chances of another rate cut in September. We will also have the UK general election where the Labour party is expected to

Fundamental Overview The USD yesterday weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The

The UK election is today, Thursday, 4 July 2024. The Labour Party is set to win in a landslide. This via Goldman Sachs, in summary (from a much longer piece) of the economic outlook under the new government: Taken together, we would look for slightly stronger near-term growth and slightly higher inflation under a Labour

Here is the link for the video, may be gated: Trump Caught on Video Claiming ‘Broken-Down’ Biden Has Quit: ‘It’s Kamala’ Trump called US President Biden a “broken-down pile of crap” “He just quit, you know—he’s quitting the race,” Trump says, sitting in a golf cart. “I got him out of the—and that means we

After what looked to be a hold of the $60,000 mark has quickly turned ugly for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency dipped in trading yesterday and is continuing that drop today under the figure level. Of note, the low earlier even briefly touched below $57,000 and is threatening a bigger break on the charts. The 200-day moving

If you’re American, the bad news is that US markets are closed today. The good news is that your local furniture retailer is having their ‘biggest sale of the year’. It’s a strange week in trading that’s generally followed the script. The week of July 4th is seasonally one of the strongest of the year

Japan’s Topix hit a record high on Thursday rose to as high as 2,890.52, breaking a high of 2,885.50 set in December 1989also beat a record closing high of 2,884.80 on the same day *** TOPIX is the Tokyo Price Index covers all domestic companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange

Fundamental Overview The USD yesterday weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The

J.​P. Morgan says the rally in crypto/​bitcoin so far this year has fueled much of the growth in stablecoins: In contrast to last year when market participants were still reeling from the collapses of several high-​profile crypto entities, the regional banking crisis, and of course, the Fed’​s tightening campaign, the stablecoin market is growing once

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, gold broke out of the recent range and extended the rally following some weak US data. In fact, the Continuing Claims rose to a new high and the ISM Services PMI hit a new cycle low. That made the real yields to drop and gold to accelerate to the upside. This has

It’s not much but the dollar is looking a little sluggish, keeping with the drop from yesterday. EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.0800 still, holding at the upper bound for the week. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is now down 0.4% and dipping just under the 161.00 mark: What is notable in the chart above is that buyers

Fundamental Overview The USD yesterday weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The

0900 GMT / 0500 US Eastern time: Master in Economics and Finance (MEF) 2024 Lecture by ECB board member Philip Lane at the University of Naples Federico II Lane spoke earlier this week:ECB’s Lane: June inflation data seems in line with our assessment 05:35 Participation by ECB board member Elizabeth McCaul in 28th Annual Economist

Major currencies are already largely lacking appetite, with small changes and tight ranges holding. The dollar was weaker yesterday, following the softer US ISM services PMI here. The moves were decent with EUR/USD pushing the boundaries near 1.0800 but is holding just below the figure level for now. But with it being the 4th of

I’m not sure how heavily you weigh this because I believe you talk like you’re going to stay in until it becomes hopeless. Very few people in history have given up power gracefully, that’s just the nature of power. Here is what Biden told the campaign call, according to a Politico reporter: “Let me say

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for NZD/USD at the 0.6130 level. It isn’t one that holds any technical significance but could play a role in keeping a lid on price action amid holiday-thin trading today. The overnight high hit 0.6129 in trading yesterday,

Epicenter: Off Chiba Prefecture. N 35.2 , E 140.5 Depth: 50 kilometers Preliminary magnitude: 5.4 Seismic intensity scale: 4 out of maximum 7 (this is the Japanese scale) Note: No tsunami warning issued Yen unmoved This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +1.4%Core CPI +1.1% y/yPrior +1.2% If the SNB needs a reason to pause on rate cuts, they certainly can point to this. At the same time, the inflation trend here fits with the change in their decision to go from FX sales to FX purchases in Q1 this year. That considering core inflation has

After a bit of a stutter following the opening gap higher on Monday, the pair is making up for that now in a push towards 1.0800. The high yesterday briefly broke the figure level but the close ultimately settled below that. And more importantly, sellers maintained a close below the confluence of the 100 (red

Prior -0.2%; revised to -0.6% That’s not a pretty number with a softer revision in April to boot. If you strip out large orders, incoming orders in May were down 2.2% relative to the month before. Looking at the details, the drop owes much to a decline in foreign orders (2.8%) while domestic orders were

I thought KAMA was the Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average. I need to get with the times! KAMA meme coin chart via Coingecko” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The early results will only start to trickle in late in the day (or should I say night), so just be wary of that. The pound will stay in focus as such but much of the results should already be priced in. Labour is expected to sweep the elections comfortably, so we’ll see by what

Prior 38.5 Though an improvement, the reading is still a very poor one and reflects the massive struggle in Germany’s construction sector. Total activity is still seen contracting but at the slowest pace in 10 months while new orders saw its softest drop in 16 months at least. While housing activity is continuing to pick

It’s a subdued data agenda ahead for today, Japan weekly flows and Australian May trade data is about it. Speaking of Japan, trading of US Treasuries (physical) will be closed for the 04 July 2024 US holiday. The UK election voting kicks off in a few hours time. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data

Standard Chartered analysts on BTC: if Biden drops out, the price of bitcoin could drop to $50,000bitcoin prices will stay soft if Biden is supplanted by alternative candidates But, otherwise: BTC to 100K USD by election day (Trump favours crypto over Biden) *** Previously Barclays had an end-2024 price estimate to $150,000 This article was

Adam spoke in an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday, on CAD and also the UK election and what it means for GBP Video link is here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We had the heads up yesterday that US President Biden would be meeting with Democrat Governors at the White House Thursday evening scheduled for 6.30 pm US Eastern time Vice President Harris will be there also. Via Political Campaign Reporter @CBSNews: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Journal (may be gated) with a piece on a barely concealed network of buyers, sellers and couriers bypassing the Biden administration’s restrictions aimed at denying China access to Nvidia’s advanced AI chips. More than 70 distributors are openly advertising online what they purport to be Nvidia’s restricted chips, This is an interesting read. Its

The FOMC meeting minutes have been released from the June meeting: Vast majority of participants at Fed’s June 11-12 meeting assessed U.S. economic growth appeared to be gradually cooling, minutes showMost participants saw current policy stance as restrictiveA number of participants said policy should stand ready to respond to unexpected economic weaknessSeveral specifically emphasized further

Biden-Harris campaign issues readout with democratic govs. Biden determined to beat Trump at ballot box, campaign says Minnesota Governor Walz says had a good conversation with US President Biden and that Biden is fit for office Maryland Governor Moore says Democratic Governors announced they will support Biden in the election – I’ve always thought that

All US stock and bond markets are closed US Bond markets closedFX desks will be skeleton staff, if any At the CME, the major venue for popular products such as ES and NQ, equity index futures trade: Currently open, Globex tradeThursday, July 4th 12:00pm trade halts, then at 5:00pm it re-opens Friday, July 5th Regular

The news of Marko Kolanovic leaving JP Morgan is all over the place. While details are thin (basically non-existent) the speculation is his departure comes due to being bearish during the enormous surge for US stocks. Dow Jones/Market Watch with the background: Kolanovic’s departure from the bank follows a two-year stretch of disappointing market calls

New Zealand updates its budget deficit 11 months into its financial year. deficit is NZD 7.75bn for the 11 months, which is 1bn lower than was forecast. One of the bear arguments for NZ is its fiscal woes. At the margin, then, this is a bit of encouraging news. This article was written by Eamonn

The USDCAD has continued its move to the downside today on the back of lower rates and the weaker US data, Technically, the price moved below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart yesterday, and remained below those MAs in the early Asian session today, before moving lower on the data. The

Oil finishes the day strong to end $1 higher as it caps fourth straight week of gainsBiden says on campaign call that he’s not dropping out – reportFOMC meeting minutes: vast majority saw the growth gradually coolingECBs Stournaras: Two more rate cuts in 2024 seems reasonableAtlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 2Q falls to 1.5%

There are strong signs of travel demand in the US this 4th long weekend, with air bookings setting records. Combine that with a big draw in US inventories in today’s report and a hurricane in the Atlantic and gold finished the week strong. There was something of a ‘sell the fact’ trade immediately after the