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Taking a look at today’s economic calendar, the main highlight during Asia-Pac is the May CPI data out of Australia due at 02:30 BST / 21:30 ET. Also heads up that we get RBA’s Kent on the wires (expected at 00:35 BST / 19:35 ET). Will be interesting to hear if he has anything to […]

Russian Defense Minister Belousov warns US Defense Secretary Austin of dangers of escalation of continued US arms supplies to Ukraine, Russian Ministry says. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Canada May CPI 2.9% versus 2.6% expectedUS June consumer confidence 100.4 vs 100.0 expectedRichmond Fed June manufacturing index -10 vs. 2 expectedFed’s Cook: Current policy is well positioned, attentive to inflation expectationsShares of Fedex jump as 2025 guidance lowers capex, highlights cost savingsShares of Nvidia surge nearly 7% to lead tech reboundUS sells 2-year Treasury

Earlier today Bowman said we’re not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut rates. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

As we head closer to the Asia-Pac session, let’s take a look at where the FX majors are trading. Sterling is in the top spot while the EUR has been the underperformer. Can’t really put a good enough reason on the price ation yesterday. CAD saw initial upside on a hot CPI print and then

The Nasdaq struggled yesterday but bounced back today in a rebound from three days of selling. What next? The JPM desk offered up this. The bull case: Economic data inflects higherPositive July seasonals;Earnings deliver on expectationsBond yields peakPositioning tailwinds The bear case: Macro sentiment deterioratesTactical pullback arrivesWeaker guidanceAI theme abandonmentExogenous shocks h/t @MrMBrown This article

Right on the screws. Prior was 4.917% Yields were above 5% in April and parts of May but have come down as Fed cuts creep closer and inflation cools. T-bills still yield 5.37% so you have the choice to roll or lock in for two years. We get 5s tomorrow and 7s on Thursday. This

The two sides are putting out a joint statement, remarking that: Japan, South Korea share serious concerns on respective currency depreciationWill continue to take appropriate steps to respond to declining value of currency Suzuki then adds that it would be “desirable for FX to move stably, reflecting fundamentals”. All in all, nothing that we haven’t

Introduction to Today’s Market Dynamics Today’s trading session exhibits a colorful mosaic of gains and losses across various sectors, revealing subtle yet significant market movements. A deep dive into today’s stock market heatmap provides us with a clearer picture of which sectors are thriving and which are just surviving. 🌐 Technology Sector In the technology

Prior was -12.1Employment +1.8 vs +3.9 priorOverall outlook -4.1 vs -12.1 priorCompany outlook -1.3 vs -5.7 priorInput prices +20.7 vs +24.7 priorSelling prices +3.8 vs +3.9 prior There’s a clear trend in services inflation here. The amount of comments in the report about politics are worrisome. The reality is that the White House has zero

Forex Expo Dubai is gearing up to host over 15,000 attendees from more than 50+ countries, solidifying its position as the largest event of its kind this year. Scheduled to take place once again in Dubai on 7th-8th October, this underscores Dubai’s enduring role as a global hub driving growth and innovation in the fintech

At some point it will be appropriate to cutTiming of policy adjustments wil ldepend on data and outlookRise in inflation expectations would imply keeping policy restrictive for longerInflation has slowed, labor market tightness has easedExpect disinflation trend to continueExpect 12 month inflation moving sideways for the rest of the year, slowing more sharply next yearExpect

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook spoke today and highlighted that unemployment is at a low level. Objectively, it’s true: But I want to highlight the extreme right-hand side of the chart because of the Sahm rule. it’s named after economist Claudia Sahm and is an economic indicator aiming to identify a recession sooner. The rule

If you don’t know Pool Corporation, it’s one of the all-time great compounders. It specializes in swimming pool supplies, equipment and products, locking down the entire industry. It has been one of the top-20 US stocks for decades as it rode the wave of housing investment and a demographic shift to warmer climates. Today, however,

They’re going to hold too long. It was written in stone they would hold too long after they blew it on inflation. Initial claims still coming in lowWe see cautious optimism in the business communityAt this point, the risks to inflation and employment are in better balanceFrom contacts, concerns now are the ones we had

Jim Cramer was on CNBC this morning talking macro. He highlighted population growth as a critical factory restraining wages and taming inflation. He cited 10 million people entering the country since the pandemic. That doesn’t match up with what the Census Bureau is saying as the official number for the year ending in July 2023

USDCNY has seen immediate upside following the weakest mid-point setting by the PBoC since November last year. We still have some ways to go before we get to 7.36-37 (which was the previous line in the sand where the PBoC stepped in to curb CNY weakness), but worth keeping an eye on it. This article

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be generally positive for risk sentiment going forward.

National Activity Index 0.18 vs. -0.23 prior (revised to -0.26). This is very volatile data and not a market moving release. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.18 in May from

Fundamental Overview Gold got hit hard last Friday by the strong US PMIs as real yields rose following the data release. The report though showed that inflationary pressures continue to abate and that’s also the reason why the market’s expectation for interest rates remained unchanged. The overreaction from the US PMIs is getting slowly erased

Extending its winning streak, global multi-asset Forex and CFD broker, FP Markets, was crowned ‘Most Transparent Broker’ and also took home ‘Best Trading Conditions’ for the second year in a row at the highly anticipated Global Ultimate Fintech (UF) Awards 2024. Following last year’s ‘Most Trusted Broker’ acknowledgement and the ‘Best Trade Execution’ award received

Fundamental Overview We got a bit of a pullback in the S&P 500 in the last few days. If we were to try to find a catalyst, the second miss in a row in the US Jobless Claims last Thursday could be it, but the data was still pretty good and not worrying in the

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The expiries should keep a floor on price action in the session ahead, if anything else. But the spot price is slightly far away with a more muted mood overall ahead of

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be generally positive for risk sentiment going forward.

Manufacturing index -10 vs. 2 expected and 0 prior.Services index -11 vs. 3 prior.Manufacturing shipments index -9 vs. 13 prior. Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in June, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from 0 in May to −10 in June. Of its

Prior was 102.0 (revised to 101.3)Expectations 73.0 vs 74.9 priorPresent situation 141.5 vs 140.8 prior14.1% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14.3%.12 month inflation expectations 5.3% vs 5.4% prior “Confidence pulled back in June but remained within the same narrow range that’s held throughout the past two years, as strength in

The Bank of Canada’s job just got a little tougher. Yesterday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem spoke about wages and productivity. He dismissed stickier wage data: “Depending on the measure you look at, wage growth peaked at between 4½% and 6%. This was roughly twice the pre-pandemic average of 2% to 3%. With inflation

Today is likely the beginning of the end of Justin Trudeau’s hold on Canadian federal politics. Polls have been bad for the Prime Minister for many months but they’ve deteriorated further lately and yesterday he suffered a crushing defeat. A special election was held in his Liberal Party’s stronghold yesterday after the retirement of a

Prior +0.6% On an annual basis, Spain’s economic output expanded by 2.5%. The figures just reinforce the stronger performance by the periphery nations especially in Q1. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Bowman: not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut ratesMajor currencies not showing much appetite on the dayFrance on the verge of a political standstill?Japan finance minister says will closely monitor currency movementsEuropean equities on the backfoot again after the gains yesterdaySpain Q1 final GDP +0.8% vs +0.7% q/q prelimWhat are

There is some back-and-fill ongoing as the market in Europe waits for what is coming next. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.3%German DAX -0.9%UK FTSE 100 -0.4%French CAC -0.7%Italy MIB -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.65% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Major currencies are not doing much to start the day but I would expect the ranges to broaden in European trading. The overall risk mood remains more mixed, with tech shares sinking in Wall Street yesterday. The Dow ended higher by 0.7% but the Nasdaq slumped by 1.1%, led by a further drop in Nvidia.

The first round of voting will begin this weekend on 30 June, before the second round on 7 July. There’s plenty of buzz surrounding the French election this time around. So, let’s take a look at what are the possible outcomes and how that might impact markets. It all started with the European parliamentary election

Major dollar pairs are still keeping within 0.1% change on the day and that sums up a rather lackluster start to European trading. The Canadian CPI report later will at least give loonie traders something to work with. Otherwise, broader markets have to look towards the overall risk mood and perhaps the Treasury auction for

We’ve seen this before. The market probes the Japanese Ministry of Finance and its willingness to intervene, gets close to the line in the sand and then retreats. It then regroups and tries again. That has been the playbook through out the past year and there is no sign the market is changing gears. USD/JPY

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Today there’s no notable event in the European session and all the action will take place in the American session as we get to see the Canadian CPI data and the US Consumer Confidence report. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada May CPI The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.6% vs. 2.7% prior, while the

As we near the Asia close, the JPY (white) is leading the majors while the CHF (green) and AUD (blue) isn’t too far behind. At the bottom of the barrel is the USD (yellow) and the NZD (purple). We have a mixture of safe havens and high betas at the top and the bottom of

Not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut rates.Should data show inflation moving sustainably to 2%, it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower policy rate.Baseline outlook continues to be inflation will return to 2% with policy rate held steady for some time.Willing to raise the target rate at a future meeting

I’ll quote an old line from Dennis Gartman: Should the General falter, the rest will falter too, for when the field General is shot and killed, the men below him scatter chaotically. Nvidia has undoubtedly been the ‘general’ of the bull market in the post-GPT era but it’s now down 16% in three trading days.

Prior month 2.7%CPI m/m +0.6% vs +0.3% estimate Core measures CPI Bank of Canada core y/y 1.8% vs 1.6% priorCPI Bank of Canada core m/m 0.6% versus 0.2% priorCore CPI m/m SA +0.3% vs 0.0% prior Trim 2.9% versus 2.8% prior Median 2.8% versus 2.6% prior Common 2.4% versus 2.6% prior Bank of Canada July

Recent inflation readings more encouraging but hard to now if on track to price stabilityWe have made a lot of progress on inflation, still work to doNearer to a point where benign outcome on labor market could be less likelyMust fully restore price stability without a painful disruption to the labor marketIf inflation falls more

Japan Services PPI 2.5 vs 2.8 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

BOC Governor Tiff Macklem sounded a bit more dovish earlier today and the market is pricing in a 71% chance of a July 24 rate cut. We’ll be looking for more hints in the Q&A. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The CAC 40 has caught a modest bounce after meeting its 50.0 Fib retracement level, with the double-top pattern also completing its reversal in a fall under 7,650 two weeks ago. The bounce in the past week is a decent one but the index is still down by over 4% in June currently. Here’s a

Following yesterday’s move lower, US equity futures have attempted to put in a marginal bounce of their lows from yesterday. Traders will have to wait for the US cash open with eyes on Nvidia to see whether that will be sustained. Forex has traded fairly mixed today with the JPY leading while the USD the

BOC’s Macklem: Increasingly we look to be on our way to hitting inflation targetBOC’s Macklem Q&A: You can see some weakening of the labor force under the hoodFed’s Daly: Bumpiness of inflation data so far this year has not inspired confidenceFed’s Daly: Must be thoughtful about not loosening too early or holding too longMacron’s poll

BofA expects the Fed to start cutting in December: Persistent Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain above the Fed’s 2% target until 2026 due to strong labor demand and increased consumer spending.Gradual Rate Cuts: The Fed is expected to start easing rates in December 2024, with cuts continuing quarterly to a terminal rate of 3.5-3.75%

Both the EUR and European Equities saw decent outperformance against their US counterparts yesterday. The OAT/Bund spreads showed some calm yesterday with the spread falling 4 basis points from 0.76% to 0.72%. With the French snap elections coming up on Sunday, markets have already priced in a fair bit of risk premium on the fiscal

China Premier Li: We are confident and capable to achieve the full year growth target of around 5%.China Premier Li: Electric vehicles, lithium batteries produced by Chinese companies have not only met domestic demand but enriched global supply.China Premier Li: We should build a more fair non-discriminatory business environment for tech innovation.China Premier Li: We

A Bloomberg report said the Fed is floating a weaker version of the bank-capital overhaul. Jamie always wins. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Monday’s Asia-Pac started out very slow and boring as usual, but seems like some volatility has been reintroduced across major asset classes. Looking at FX, the EUR had a decent day, with the GBP in second place. The three safe havens (USD, CHF and JPY) were the clear laggards, which was interesting despite the risk

Japan to revise Jan-Mar GDP to reflect corrected data on construction orders from Land MinistryJapan revised Jan-Mar GDP to be released at 2350 GMT on June 30, 8:50 a.m. Japan time on July 1 This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

PBoC injects 300 billion Yuan via 7-day reverse reposSets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Australia consumer sentiment 1.7 vs -0.3 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Coincident index 115.2 vs 114.2 prior The assessment of the coincident index remains unchanged, defined as “signaling a possible turning point”. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures -0.7%UK FTSE futures -0.1% Even though tech shares were the drag in Wall Street in the day before, European equities are seeing a pullback to yesterday’s gains. As a reminder, France remains on the brink ahead of the first round of elections this weekend. That remains a concern with eyes being on

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

Thankfully today’s economic calendar is a bit more exciting than yesterday. Main highlights will be Canadian CPI for May at 13:30 BST / 08:30 ET, followed by US Consumer Confidence at 15:00 BST/10:00 ET. We also have some Fed speak coming up with Bowman and Cook on the wires. Apart from that, worth keeping in

Once again, the ranges so far today is leaving a lot to be desired. After the rise yesterday, EUR/USD is stuck within a less than 10 pips range and that exemplifies the overall market mood. There’s not much to point to when it comes to the slight drop in the dollar yesterday. But it perhaps

Heading into the Trump/Biden debate this week, Goldman was out with a useful note on their expectations for a Republican victory. USD: Upside bias under a Republican victory Tariff Policies: Trump has proposed several potential tariff policies, including a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China. These tariffs are

The poster child for AI took a bit of a day off it seems, with Nvidia down 6.7%. Catalysts are very thin for some of the moves we are seeing, but since it’s month-end and quarter-end I will take the easy way out and blame that for now. One would assume that some chunky rebalancing

We’ve seen inflationary pressures ease and we think they will continue to easeWe need to have conversations on improving our productivityWe’ve had exceptionally-strong supply shocksWe have too many small differences between provinces creating barriersThe economy has been changing rapidlyMy intention today was to highlight the things we’re looking at in the labor marketWe are looking

Rationale for long NOK: The Norges Bank is one of the last central banks likely to cut rates. The bank’s decision to keep rates on hold, coupled with elevated inflation expectations and wage growth, suggests a hawkish stance. The NOK is considered extremely undervalued, and the Norges Bank’s preference for a higher exchange rate to

Biden administration investigating China Telecom, China Mobile, and China UnicomThe probe is focused on potential US national security risks from their US cloud business and internet infrastructure This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Won’t comment on forex levels.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Excessive FX volatility undesirable.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Closely watching FX moves, will respond appropriately to excessive volatility. This article was written by Arno V Venter at

If you want a fantastic rundown of what the USD/CNY midpoint is look no further than the daily updates from Eamonn here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US Presidential hopeful Donald Trump is in talks to speak at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville at the end of July, according to Axios. Margins are tight in the election and Trump is trying to court every vote he can. “I will end Joe Biden’s war on crypto,” Trump said in Wisconsin. “We will ensure that

Everything considered, the market is holding up better than I thought it would. Nvidia is now down 15% from its all time high of 140.76 as it falls 5.5% today to 119.66. That high was only two trading days ago on Thursday so it’s been a sharp turnaround that started with a textbook bearish engulfing

Prior was -19.4 Details: General business activity -15.1 vs -19.4 priorCompany outlook -6.9 vs -13.4 priorPrices paid +21.5 vs +20.4 priorNew orders -1.3 vs -2.2 priorShipments +2.8 vs -3.0 priorEmployment -2.9 vs -5.3 prior The pricing numbers all ticked higher. Comments in the report are much more negative than the report numbers. Food manufacturing We

Canadian Finance Minister Freeland announced a 30-day consultation on potential tariffs on Chinese-made EVs. They will look at restricting what kinds of vehicles are eligible for Canada’s consumer EV incentives. Canada let so many industries go and told them to ‘learn to code’ but now in a ‘climate emergency’ this is the one they decide

Prior 89.3Current conditions 88.3 vs 88.5 expectedPrior 88.3Expectations 89.0 vs 91.0 expectedPrior 90.4; revised to 90.3 Slight delay in the release by the source. The German business climate declined in June, missing on estimates in all three readings. That’s not a good sign on how economic sentiment is holding up towards the end of Q2.

Belgian business sentiment is a leading indicator but this comes after the German Ifo reading earlier today. It fell to 88.6 from 89.3. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Tonight’s tracking poll from Le Figaro paints a worsening picture for Emmanuel Macron’s centralist alliance as voters split left and right. The far right now has 36% of the vote and the left popular front is up to 29.5%. Macron’s camp has lost 1.5% since the pol on Thursday and sits at 20.5%. French stocks

Fundamental Overview Despite good data on the inflation and growth front, Bitcoin couldn’t find a sustained bid amid the generally positive risk sentiment. There was no real catalyst for the drop other than a key technical support getting breached. We got a quick drop into a key support zone today which will likely attract more

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be positive for risk sentiment for the time

We continue to think we don’t need a large rise in the jobless rate to get inflation to targetThere is room to grow and add jobs even as inflation moves closer to 2%Signs of financial stress are particularly evident among rentersWe can’t rule out bumps but increasingly we look to be on our way to

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 47.5 bps (90% chance of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 47.7 bps (68% chance of no change at the next meeting) BoE: 47.6 bps (50% chance of rate cut at the next meeting) BoC: 54.4 bps (71% chance of rate cut at the next meeting) RBA: 6.7 bps

The US dollar is under broad pressure as New York ramps up this week. It’s not clear what is behind the dollar softness. The bond market is quiet and stocks are modestly bid. Fundamental news has been minimal and the comments from Goolsbee weren’t particularly dovish (at least by his standards). Fed pricing is steady

Earlier today I had a great chat with Dale Pinkert from Forex Analytix Highlights: Early look? What Bitcoin and cyclicals are telling us about the economy. Canadian Dollar Outlook: Why I’m bearish and worried about the long term AI and Technology: What will be the scale of job losses from AI and how will central

Highlights what ‘seems to be a cooling of consumer spending’It’s worth wondering where we are on our restrictiveness scaleIf we get more ‘months’ like the last one on inflation, coupled with more weakening data then you have to start questioning where we should be on ratesOptimistic we’ll see improvement in inflation dataHopeful that Fed will

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures -0.1% This mirrors the mood in US futures, which are also keeping flattish as we look to the session ahead. For European stocks, just be wary that political woes might factor in again with the first round of the French election coming up on 30 June. This article was

European equities continue to recover some of the political selling as we near voting this weekend in the first round of the French election. Stoxx 600 +0.8%German DAX +1.0%UK FTSE 100 +0.7%French CAC +1.1%Italy MIB +1.6%Spain IBEX +1.3% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Nvidia is trading down 2.3% ahead of the open, trading at $123.67. That comes after a reversal lower from an all-time high on Thursday and a further decline on Friday despite a flat day for stocks overall. Where is it headed? If we take the last leg of the move, a minimum target would be

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be positive for risk sentiment for the time

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The report should give us a better understanding of what the board members were thinking. In June, the BoJ decided to keep its short-term policy rate steady at 0.0%-0.1%, which was expected. But they threw a curveball by not starting to taper their bond purchases as some had anticipated. Instead, they decided to stick with

Introduction: Mapping the Day’s Market Movements Today’s stock market presents a varied landscape of gains and losses across different sectors. A closer look at the market’s heatmap reveals significant trends that could shape investment strategies in the short term. Sector Overview Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector is notably struggling, with NVDA taking a sharp decline of

On Monday, the economic calendar is relatively light. In Canada, BoC Governor Macklem will deliver a speech titled “Workers, Jobs, Growth, and Inflation—Today and Tomorrow” at the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce. Tuesday brings inflation data for Canada, as well as the CB consumer confidence and the Richmond manufacturing index for the U.S. On Wednesday, attention

US stocks are modestly lower in the early going with tech lagging on a 2.8% decline in Nvidia. S&P 500 down 0.1%Nasdaq down 0.4%DJIA +0.2%Russell 2000 +0.1% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0690-00 and that is likely to keep price action more contained in the session ahead. There isn’t much else to work with to start the week, so that should see a more muted

Prior -33 Manufacturing orders in the UK fell again in June but at a slower pace as compared to May at least. The balance for manufacturing output expectations also increased to 13 from 7 previously, marking the highest since October last year. CBI notes that the readings are “encouraging” and that the recovery should “broaden

Headlines: The nerves are starting to show again in USD/JPYWhat are the main events for today?Weekly update on interest rates expectationsGermany June Ifo business climate index 88.6 vs 89.7 expectedUK June CBI trends total orders -18 vs -25 expectedSNB total sight deposits w.e. 21 June CHF 451.8 bn vs CHF 453.5 bn priorChina calls for

Bitcoin is trading at the lowest since mid-May after a dump in Europe that’s only been held up by bids in the $60,600 zone. First of all, bitcoin is very technical and the inability to break $72,000 and instead forming a top is worrisome. If we break $60,000 and possibly $57,000, that would leave an

Equity futures are seeing some pressure across the board this morning, but catalysts for the move is very thin right now. Worth noting it’s bound to be a messy week with month-end flows in the mix, as well as market’s attention shifting towards political risks with the French election coming up on Sunday as well

Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee will speak on CNBC at the bottom of the hour. In his latest comments, he called the May CPI number ‘excellent’ and that you can’t help but be optimistic if you look at the long view. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be positive for risk sentiment for the time

If you want a fantastic rundown of what the USD/CNY midpoint is look no further than the daily updates from Eamonn here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

For some context, the EU is set to impose provisional tariffs of up to 38.1% on imported Chinese-made EVs starting from 4 July. This has caused quite a stir between the bloc and China in the past week or so. But over the weekend, there was a call between EU commissioner Dombrovskis and China’s commerce

It may be a quieter start to the new week but this is one to watch where the action can pick up quickly. After having intervened in late April, Japanese officials are being put into the spotlight again now. Are they going to step in at the 160.00 mark once more? Or are they going

Domestic sight deposits CHF 443.4 bn vs CHF 445.3 bn prior Swiss sight deposits fell again in the past week but the SNB messaging here kind of overrides the data, at least for now. We’ll see how the trend develops further in the weeks ahead to have a better idea of what might be happening

This is the sort of nervous price action that we also saw previously when getting close to intervention territory. The pair just took a quick dip from 159.60 to 158.75 before holding around 159.15-30 levels again. In the run up to the last intervention, there were also jerky price movements such as this during the

It’s still early in the session, but so far the USD and CHF is leading the majors on the upside, while the NZD and JPY has been the weakest. Catalysts remain thin for now and liquidity thin so worth keeping that in mind. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Heading into the UK general election, risk premiums seems on the low side. Even though 1-month risk reversals for GBPUSD has pushed lower, the recent fall has more to do with political risk in France as well as the BoE’s policy decision. It would seem that markets are surprisingly calm with pricing in risk for

• NZ credit card spending YY 0.0% vs -0.6% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Today, there’s no real market moving event on the agenda. In the European session we will hear from Fed’s Waller and get to see the latest German IFO data. In the American session, there will be just the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, and ECB’s Schnabel and Fed’s Daly speaking. The price action should be influenced

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% French stocks bounced back a little last week but will stay under scrutiny in the week ahead, with the first round of the election coming up on 30 June. As for the overall risk mood, it is mostly steadier with US

It’s been a quiet start to the week for Asia-Pac, with very little market-moving news and very little price action to get excited about. Equities: futures started the week on the softer side with marginal downside seen in equity futures (mostly across the board), but have since regained some composure albeit we are still down

I know we are all tired of intervention headlines, but with USDJPY approaching 160 again we need to keep it in mind as a volatility risk. The recent intervention kicked in around the 160.20 level, so traders will be eyeing this closely in the sessions ahead. As always, there is no guarantee that we see

Things are moving slower to start the new week, with major currencies keeping in tight ranges. But if anything else, do keep an eye out for USD/JPY as it continues to track towards the 160.00 threshold again. That might prompt Japanese authorities to intervene to lock down further yen depreciation, at least for now. After

Justice Department has until July 7th to decide whether to go ahead with prosecutionJustice department’s findings is that the company breached a 2021 agreement that shielded it from fraud chargesRelatives of the victims are urging the prosecutors to seek for a $25 billion fine as well as criminal prosecution Source: reuters This article was written

It’s a very quiet start to the week on the economic data side. • BoJ’s summary of opinions due at 00:50 BST / 19:50 ET. • German Ifo data due at 09:00 BST / 04:00 ET. • US Dallas Fed Mfg Index due at 15:30 BST / 10:30 ET. However, after the recent flurry of

Japan FinMin Suzuki: Won’t comment on forex levels.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Desirable for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Excessive FX change undesirable.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Want to respond appropriately as needed.Japan FinMin Suzuki says no comment, when asked if current FX moves are excessive. This article was written by Arno V Venter

South Korea, US, Japan strongly condemn deepening North Korea, Russia military cooperation – South Korea Foreign Ministry.South Korea, US, Japan say Putin’s visit to North Korea triggered grave concern – South Korea Foreign MinistrySouth Korea, U.S., Japan say they will further strengthen security cooperation to counter threats by North Korea – South Korea Foreign Ministry.

PBoC injects 50 billion Yuan via 7-day reverse reposSets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCNH has continued to grind higher as capital outflows from China ramps up. According to Reuters, foreigners has pulled $4.54B this month via the stock connect scheme. We are approaching pervious ‘max pain’ levels for the PBoC between 7.36-37 where we saw previous attempts to curb Yuan losses. For now the move higher has

Despite a solid US Flash PMI print on Friday, money market bets for the Fed wasn’t much changed. Expectations into the data was for around 47 basis points of easing by year-end, and expectations stayed very close to that despite the beat. It’s important to keep in mind that there has been a disconnect between

Won’t comment on daily forex levels.Will take appropriate steps if there is excessive forex move.No impact at all from U.S. report on forex monitoring.US govt suggests there is no problem in Japan’s forex intervention.Don’t have specific forex level in mind.Will respond to rapid forex moves by speculators.Won’t comment if recent forex moves are excessive This

BOJ June meeting summary of opinions: One member said BOJ expected to raise interest rate if underlying inflation rises as projected.BOJ June summary: One member said given chance of upside risk to inflation, must consider further adjustment to degree of monetary easingBOJ June summary: One member said must raise interest rate in timely fashion without

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

• NZ exports May 2024 7.16B vs 6.42B • NZ imports May 2024 6.95B vs 6.32B • NZ trade balance May 2024 204M vs 91.0M This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Welcome to another trading week. Hope you all had a great weekend and is ready to get the show on the road. As usual, early Asia-Pac trading means thinner liquidity and lower volumes so always keep that in mind. For now, exchange rates for major FX pairs are as follows: EUR/USD 1.0688USD/JPY 159.79GBP/USD 1.2631USD/CHF 0.8934USD/CAD

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: BoJ Summary of Opinions, German IFO.Tuesday: Canada CPI, US Consumer Confidence.Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI.Thursday: Japan Retail Sales, US Durable Goods Orders, US Final Q1 GDP, US Jobless Claims.Friday: Tokyo CPI, UK Final Q1 GDP, Canada GDP, US PCE, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final). Tuesday The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at

Week Ahead 24-28th June: Mon: BoJ Summary of Opinions, German Ifo Survey (Jun), German Import Prices (May) Tue: Japanese Services PPI (May), Canadian CPI (May), UK GDP (Q1) Wed: Australian CPI (May), German GfK Consumer Sentiment Thu: Biden/Trump debate on CNN, Riksbank Announcement, CBRT Announcement, CNB Announcement, European Council, Chinese Industrial Profits YTD (May), EZ

It was quad witching in the equity market and that played a big role in today’s trading. S&P 500 down 0.2%Nasdaq Comp down 0.2%Russell 2000 up 0.2%DJIA flatToronto TSX Comp down 0.1% On the week: S&P 500 +0.6%Nasdaq flatDJIA +1.4% The candle on the Nasdaq could be nothing or it could be something, especially with

Mon, Jun 24, 3 AM ET. USD: FOMC member Waller speakingMon, Jun 24, 1:45pm CAD: BOC Gov Macklem Speaks Tuesday June 25 Tue, Jun 25, 8:30am CAD: CPI m/m (Estimate: 0.3%, Previous: 0.5%), Median CPI y/y (Estimate: 2.6%, Previous: 2.6%),Trimmed CPI y/y (Estimate: 2.8%, Previous: 2.9%)Tue, Jun 25, 10:00am USD: CB Consumer Confidence (Estimate: 100.2,

US equities finish the week on a soft noteKey Events and Releases to Watch Next Week in TradingGold rally proves short-lived as it falls $40MUFG: BOJ likely to raise rates next month, MOF under pressure to interveneBaker Hughes oil rig count -3 to 485European equity close: Soft finish but a better weekUS May existing home

Today’s outside reversal lower in gold prices rekindles some worries on the chart. Gold has looked to be forming a head-and-shoulders top over the past two months in a move that would target $2150. However yesterday the bulls made a move and tried to take out the late-May highs. That failed through and today the

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures +0.1% Risk sentiment is more muted as we look towards the start of European trading today. Regional indices are seeing a modest rebound this week after political woes weighed on the mood last week. The CAC 40 is up by over 2% on the week as of yesterday but

The Bank of Japan meeting in June produced the commitment to trim back JGB buying from the following, July, meeting: Will decide on specific bond buying reduction plan for the next 1-2 years at next policy meeting.BOJ governor Ueda says will begin tapering bond purchases immediately after July meeting On Monday we’ll get more detail

Oil rigs -3 at 485Natural gas rigs unchanged at 98Total rigs -2 at 588 The price of crude oil is trading at $80.55 it’s down $0.72 or -0.89% on the day This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

As the clock ticks to the end of the trading week, the USDCAD has moved higher after reaching a new low for the week earlier in the trading day. On the way to the low, the price did move back below its 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.3687. It also fell

Fuji News Network (FNN) citing Prime Minister Kishida: to resume utility subsidiesto maintain gasoline subsidies Also, via NHK: Japan’s government is in the final preparation stage to adopt additionnal steps to ease the burden of higher electricity and gas prices USD/JPY is off from its earlier highs: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

MUFG highlights the yen’s recent weakening trend and anticipates the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising rates at next month’s meeting. Concurrently, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) faces increased pressure to intervene in the currency markets to prevent the yen from further depreciation beyond critical levels. Key Points: Yen Weakness and Intervention Reversal: USD/JPY has risen

The subtle dovish hints by the BOE yesterday was enough to pin the pair down, erasing the gains from earlier in the week. That is putting cable near where it left off on Friday but with the low today having tested the 100-day moving average (red line) of 1.2638. That alongside the 61.8 Fib retracement

The S&P index and in the NASDAQ and a are now trading in positive territory and at highs for the day: The NASDAQ is leading the way with a gain of 50 points or 0.28% at 17770.44. The S&P index is up 2.23 points or 0.04% of 5475.42. For the trading week, both indices are

The US is determined to dominate semiconductors and not allow China to catch up. New proposed rules restrict US investment in key sectorsRules ban certain investments in design, automation, fabrication and advanced packaging toolsQuantum computers and AI also targeted Proposes notification requirements for all other investments in Chinese AI system development The US is going

Closing changes in the main European bourses: Stoxx 600 -0.6%German DAX -0.35%UK FTSE 100 -0.4%French CAC -0.4%Italy MIB -0.9%Spain IBEX -1.0% On the week: Stoxx 600 +0.9%German DAX +1.1%UK FTSE 100 +1.6%French CAC +1.8%Italy MIB +2.1%Spain IBEX +0.5% These are some nice weekly numbers but they come after a battering on political worries. This article

USD/JPY bulls are playing with fire. The pair is up for a seventh straight day after a surprisingly strong US services PMI. The reading of 55.1 is a 26-month high and well above the 53.7 consensus. The report sparked broad US dollar buying and has pushed USD/JPY closer to the 160.00 line in the sand.

The drop today brings us back to where we were on Friday, testing the waters below the 1.0700 mark. The close at the end of last week was just above the figure level, so that will be one to watch again today to see if sellers can find more conviction for a break under. For

Prior was 4.10mInventory at 3.7 months vs 3.5m priorMedian price +5.8% from May 2023 at $419.3KSales down 0.7% m/m This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Bullard is the previous President of the St. Louis Fed: US economy remains strongExpects slow rate cut pace I’m not sure of the event Bullard was speaking at. While the US economy is beginning to show signs of slowing a touch, it does remain robust. And the latest signals from Fed officials is for a

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin: wants to see clearer signs of falling inflation before a rate cutsays the Federal Reserve is positioned well, has necessary tools for the jobthe flow of data will determine further moves after the first rate cut This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar continues to keep somewhat resilient on the week, with major currencies not showing too much appetite. USD/JPY remains a standout though, as the pair climbs to 159.00 – its highest level since Japan intervened on 29 April. No stopping traders from dancing to the beat there. In other markets, European equities bounced back

The GBPJPY has been on an upward trend this week, but it turned lower during the European session following weaker-than-expected flash PMI data. The price dropped below its 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart above at 200.77) but found support near the 200-hour moving average and the lower boundary of a swing area

Prior 99Manufacturing confidence 99Prior 99Services confidence 101Prior 101; revised to 102 The French business climate remains steady in June, keeping just under its long-term average of 100. The services reading was marginally lower on the month while manufacturing is seen unchanged from May. Of note, employment conditions did ease a touch though with the reading

Prior was -0.2%Ex autos +1.8% vs +0.7% expectedEx autos and gasoline +1.4%Motor vehicle and parts dealers -2.2%Food and beverage retailers +1.9%, led by grocery storesAlberta +3.1%, Ontario -1.0% with Toronto sales -2.5% (Toronto is weakest housing market right now)Preliminary May data -0.6% m/m Yesterday, RBC reported a slump in Canadian discretionary spending in May so

Today’s snapshot of the US stock market Today’s trading session highlighted a distinct divergence in market sector performance, with technology generally outpacing other areas, although noteworthy declines were observed in the semiconductor subsector. 📉 Semiconductor Sector Analysis A significant red zone in today’s heatmap is unmistakably the semiconductor sector, led by a sharp 3.04% fall

The AUDUSD this week traded down to test a swing area between 0.6575 and 0.6590. The subsequent move to the upside then tested the high of a swing area between 0.6677 and 0.66896 (see the chart below). Staying with the confines of the “red box” where most of the trading has taken place over the

Prior was 54.8Manufacturing vs 51.0 expectedPrior manufacturing was 51.3 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The responsibility lies entirely with the EU sideHopes that EU would meet China halfway and handle differences through dialogue For some context, the EU launched five new anti-dumping investigations against China in May. That was seen totaling to roughly $1.71 billion. And they are following that up with proposed tariffs on Chinese electric cars. If

Headlines: Japanese yen stays in focus as inflation data slows further in MayEuro, yields dip on softer French and German PMI readingsFrance June flash services PMI 48.8 vs 50.0 expectedGermany June flash manufacturing PMI 43.4 vs 46.4 expectedEurozone June flash services PMI 52.6 vs 53.5 expectedUK June flash services PMI 51.2 vs 53.0 expectedUK May

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -2.3%; revised to -1.8%Retail sales +1.3% vs -0.9% y/y expectedPrior -2.7%; revised to -2.3%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +2.9% vs +1.3% m/m expectedPrior -2.0%; revised to -1.4%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +1.2% vs -0.8% y/y expectedPrior -3.0%; revised to -2.5% After many months of disappointment, UK retail sales finally comes up with a beat

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0650-60 and the 1.0700 mark. Both should play the role in limiting any material downside before the expiries roll off later today. But given how price action has been behaving, the one at

A note via JP Morgan says less short selling, combined with short covering, has been a factor fuelling the run for stocks, a “steady flow of support”. JPM nominate one support for the US equity market over the past 12 months has originated from a fall in short interest on the two biggest equity ETFs,

Japanese economy is recovering moderately, albeit with some weak signsUnderlying inflation likely to gradually accelerateYet to decide on specifics of bond tapering planBut size of reduction in bond purchases likely to be significant For now, it seems like only the bond taper is on the cards for July. There’s no mention of any follow up

Canada kicks of the final trading day of the week with retail sales and PPI data. Then at 9:45 am ET, we get the US manufacturing and services flash PMIs from S&P Global. At 10 am ET, we get existing home sales and at 1 pm ET, there’s 2-year Treasury auction. There are no Fed

The USDJPY has lifted back to the upside and is back above the 159.00 level after the stronger-than-expected S&P/global manufacturing and services index flash data. The high price traded up to 159.206. That gets it to 100 pips short of the 2024 high price at 160.208. That I was the highest level going back to

As the NA session begins the NZD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. The USD is mixed. In Japan all hands are on deck to slow the JPYs fall. Overnight,Japan’s officials, including Masato Kanda, Finance Minister Suzuki, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi, emphasized the need for stable foreign exchange (FX) levels and

RBC is out with its monthly review of Canadian credit card spending. As the nation’s largest bank, the number should offer clues on the strength of the Canadian consumer. The report notes that momentum in discretionary purchases faded in May after a rise in April. restaurant sales edged slightly lower in May and were not

Prior 49.3Manufacturing PMI 45.3 vs 46.8 expectedPrior 46.4Composite PMI 48.2 vs 49.5 expectedPrior 48.9 The readings above are a further setback to the French economy after the softer ones in May already. A renewed downturn in new orders in particular is the main drag for the month. Meanwhile, employment conditions eased to a three-month low

Prior month -0.6%Leading index for May -0.5% versus -0.3% estimate. There have only been one positive reading since April 2022. The data will predict the recession one day. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It was always going to be a race against time for the BOJ in the first half of this year. And the inflation data today reaffirms that sentiment, with prices converging further towards the pivotal 2% mark. Where art thou inflation? The headache for the BOJ continues as such. They managed to squeeze in a

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly is speaking as part of a panel: “The Transformative Power of AI: How is Technology Changing Our Lives?” in coordination with Syracuse University and the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs. The topic doesn’t sound like there will be anything from here on the economy

The July Bank of Canada decision is shifting more-decisively towards a rate cut after today’s softer retail sales and PPI numbers. The market is now pricing in a 73% chance of a back-to-back cut. Retail sales matched the +0.7% estimate for April but the May advance report showed a 0.6% decline and the March reading

In the kickstart video for June 21, I take a look at the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective and explain what the bias is, what the risks are, and what the targets are for each. The EURUSD corrected up to tested 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April low at

Prior 52.9Manufacturing PMI 51.4 vs 51.3 expectedPrior 51.2Composite PMI 51.7 vs 53.1 expectedPrior 53.0 Election jitters starting to creep in? The headline reading is a 7-month low and that is weighing on the overall UK business activity for June. The only bright side is that manufacturing conditions are seen improving further, with the reading there

Prior month 1.5% revised to 1.4%Producer Prices MoM 0.0% vs 0.5% estimateProducer prices YoY 1.8 % vs 1.4% last month revised to 1.3%. This was the biggest year on year increase since January 2023.Raw material prices MoM -1.0% vs 5.5% last month revised to 5.3%. Excluding accrued energy products, the RMPI rose 2.4%Raw material prices

The major US indices are trading little changed ahead of the flash PMI data and the existing home sales. Dow Industrial Average averages up 2.0 points or 0.01% at 39141S&P is down -6.5 points or -0.13% at 5466.06Nasdaq is down -15.48 points or -0.09% at 17706.37 The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading down -4.51 points

US stock futures are fractionally lower but all eyes are on Nvidia today as we hit quad witching. Shares are down 2.9% in the premarket after hitting a record early yesterday and then reversing to finish 3% lower. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Swiss National Bank cut rates by 25 basis points yesterday and that reversed the downward bias that the USDCHF was experiencing going into the rate decision. The subsequent move higher move back above the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 2023 low at 0.8883, a swing area between 0.8881 and 0.8892,

Earlier in the session we had Kanda: Japan’s Kanda says ready to take action if excessive FX move seen Hayashi now: Addition of Japan to the US currency monitoring list does not mean that Japan’s foreign exchange policy is a problemStable forex levels are desirableImportant that forex rates reflect fundamentalsWill continue to closely monitor moves

I’m not sure we’ll get too much of impact from this: 1030 GMT / 0630 Bank of Spain Deputy Governor Margarita Delgado to speak at an event in Santander This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Here are the changes among key dollar pairs on the week as we look to the final day of US trading later: EUR/USD: -0.1%USD/JPY: +0.9%GBP/USD: -0.2%USD/CHF: +0.3%USD/CAD: -0.3%AUD/USD: +0.6%NZD/USD: -0.2% Outside of the Japanese yen and perhaps arguably the aussie, the changes on the week are rather insignificant thus far. The mid-week break also didn’t

Tune in Monday for the Bank of Japan Summary of its June meetingBank of Spain Deputy Governor speaking FridayJapan will resume subsidies for utilites and continue with gasoline subsidiesEx-Fed Bullard says he expects a slow pace of rate cuts from the FOMCNorth Korean soldiers crossed into South Korea again, the third time this month (so

South Korean media (Yonhap) report on the third crossing of North Korean troops into South Korea so far in June. Both previous crossings were said to be unintentional, as was this third. Hard to believe really. North Korean troops working in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) briefly crossed the border into the Southcrossed the Military Demarcation

Preliminary Judo Bank S&P Australian Manufacturing PMI 47.5 prior 49.7 Services 51.0 prior 52.5 Composite 50.5 prior 52.1 Wow, what an awful set of numbers. Early 2024 was promising but that’s fallen in a heap now. Warren Hogan, Chief Economic Advisor at Judo Bank this in brief on the employment and inflation aspects: “The composite

There should be leaks and reports to follow after that on how much will the BOJ scale back on their supposed bond purchases. So, keep an eye out for that. The central bank is then expected to officially announce that at their next policy meeting decision on 31 July. This article was written by Justin

Prior 53.2Manufacturing PMI 45.6 vs 47.9 expectedPrior 47.3Composite PMI 50.8 vs 52.5 expectedPrior 52.2 Business activity in the euro area slows sharply towards the end of Q2, with manufacturing continuing to prove to be a drag. The output index there is seen slumping to a six-month low. Meanwhile, the services sector reading also eased but

Prior 45.4Services PMI 53.5 vs 54.4 expectedPrior 54.2Composite PMI 50.6 vs 52.7 expectedPrior 52.4 The euro has dipped to fresh lows on the day amid the softer-than-expected readings in France and now Germany. EUR/USD is down from 1.0705 earlier to 1.0675 on the day. Just take note of large option expiries here at 1.0650-60 that

US Treasury Secretary Yellen: crytocurrency remains a small part of financing for Fentanyl trafficking This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Leading lights from the world of online trading gathered at Columbia Beach, Limassol, Cyprus to celebrate the best Brokers and B2B brands over the past 12 months as part of the official UF AWARDS Global 2024. The winning companies were congratulated in a special ceremony on June 20, organised by Ultimate Fintech, with each award

EUR/USD has fallen from 1.0705 to 1.0670 levels on the day, following the softer PMI reports from France and Germany. It reinforces the notion that the economic resilience in Q1 may be a short-lived one. And this may put pressure on the ECB to cut rates sooner rather than later in Q3 this year. Looking

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The ‘core-core’ rate of inflation in May (core-core is that excluding food and energy, it’s the closest to the US measure of core inflation) has shown its slowest rise since September 2022. The ‘core’ rate, which excludes fresh food, jumped from April though. This will keep the prospect of the BoJ rate hike alive. A

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Japan finance minister Suzuki: To visit Seoul on June 25 to meet with s. Korean counterpartWill communicate closely with US, other countries on FX based on G7 agreement that excessive, disorderly fx moves could hurt economiesDon’t think US sees Japan’s fx policy as problematic Suzuki joins in with earlier verbal intervention efforts today: Japan’s Kanda

Trump news crossing on immigration policy If you graduate from a college you should get automatically as part of your diploma a green card to be able to stay in United States Info comes via Reuters. I’m no politics expert but amongst those looking for greater US productivity growth this is going to be a

Slower expansion for Japanese manufacturing expanded for a second straight monthnew orders weakened from May and cost pressures intensified, rising faster than in June Flash services PMI: 49.8 in June from 53.8 in May Composite 50.0 prior 52.6 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Masato Kanda is vice-minister for international affairs at Japan’s Ministry of Finance. He is the official who will instruct the BOJ to intervene, when he judges it necessary, and is often referred to as Japan’s ‘top currency diplomat’. US exchange rate list assessed against mechanical criteriaReady to take actions if excess fx move seenFx intervention

The GBPUSD fell earlier today. The BOE kept their policy rate unchanged today. However, as Justin pointed out in his posts after the decision, the Bank of England’s latest statement includes subtle dovish hints suggesting potential rate cuts in the near future. In the forward guidance, the BOE added, “As part of the August forecast

US Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke On Thursday. In her remarks were comments on inflation and China. Yellen firmly stepping into election territory here: Biden understands struggles of American households with higher costs for housing, basic necessitiesBiden wants to cut taxes for hardworking families through expansion of child tax creditBiden has made affordability a top priority

USD/CNH and USD/CNY have risen again overnight. The background to the weaker yuan is that the People’s Bank of China has loosened up on dampening USD/CNY, we had a warning of this on Monday: HSBC expect the USD/CNY reference rate to drift higher (yuan weaker) And since then the Bank have indeed allowed the CNY

US May housing starts 1.277m vs 1.370m expectedUS initial jobless claims 238K vs 235k estimateUS June Philly Fed +1.3 vs +5.0 expectedUS sells 5-year TIPS at 2.050%France election poll: National Rally leading, Macron lags behindWhite House’s Brainard: There is every reason to expect further inflation progressEIA weekly crude oil inventories -2547K vs -2200K expectedAtlanta Fed

Bank of America forecasts for EUR/USD: 1.12 at the end of 20241.17 at the end of 2025 (from previously projecting 1.20)1.20 in 2026 BoA citing: Federal Reserve to cut, but more gradually than previously thoughtSay that with persistent inflation it’ll be a shallow easing cycle Despite the timing of its EUR/USD forecast B of A

This from the US Treasury twice yearly currency manipulation report Found that no major US trading partner manipulated currency to gain unfair trade advantage in four quarters through December 2023Found no major trading partner met criteria for enhanced analysis in four quarters ending December 2023Monitoring list of trading partners whose currency practices ‘merit close attention’

Ontario Premier Doug Ford was in the news on Thursday calling on the federal government to place a 100% tariff on electric vehicles manufactured in China. Ford warned that not doing so places jobs at “risk” in Ontario. – Ford may have been playing a bit of politics, the Canadian govmt has such tariffs under

The Nasdaq string of up days is over at 7-days. Over that 7-days, the price has closed at record levels each day. The decline today is the worst day since May 30. Meanwhile, the Dow rose for the 3rd day in a row with a solid gain of 300 points. It was its strongest day

Tokyo inflation data the focus. USD/JPY has continued its rise, this gave it a little tailwind yesterday: Japan survey of firms – very few believe wage growth quicker than inflation achievable But it was heading higher regardless. Evan Kanda couldn’t stop it: Japan top currency diplomat says there is no limit to FX intervention resources

Thursday was the sixth-consecutive day of Japanese yen selling and it ended with a flourish. It left the US dollar higher by 83 pips against the yen to 158.91. That’s only higher than a few hours on April 29 when the pair broke 160.00 in a rout before the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervened in

Crude oil for August settled up $0.58 at $81.29. That’s up $0.58 or 0.71% Today, EIA weekly inventory data showed Crude oil stocks had a drawdown of-2.547M versus expectations of a drawdown of -2.200 million barrelsGasoline stocks had a surprise drawdown of -2.280 million versus expectations of a build of 0.620 million barrelsDistilates showed a

Bank of America is out with a survey of wealthy investors but they divided them into two cohorts: Ages 21-43 and age 44+. The results are shockingly different. Young investors see real estate and crypto as top opportunities, while U.S. stocks rank lowest. A striking 72% of them believe it’s impossible to achieve above-average returns

Swiss franc has significantly increased in past few weeksUnderlying inflation pressure has decreasedWe will continue to monitor developments closely, adjust policy if necessaryWilling to be active in foreign exchange markets as necessary The comment on the franc having “significantly increased” does change things up a bit. That perhaps says they are comfortable with the currency

According to a Harris interactive poll on the France election: Far-right National Rally (RN) party seen leading first round of French Parliament election with 220-250 seats.Left Wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition seen in second place of French election with 135-165 seats.Macron’s ‘Together’ centrist camp seen in third place of French election with 95-130 seats.Conservative

In the bigger picture, gold is very much still in a consolidative mood. The price action this week is supported by the news that central banks are still intending to bolster their gold reserves in the long run. That is keeping slightly more underpinned in the last few sessions. However, the chart still outlines a

The AUDUSD earlier this week tested the low of what has been a fairly confined trading range between 0.6575 AND 0.66896 (see red box on the chart below), and then tested the high of that swing area both yesterday and today. So traders continue to trade the range by leaning on the downside and on

This data was delayed because of the US holiday yesterday. WTI crude oil was trading 60-cents higher ahead of the release. The consensus is: Prior was +3730K Gasoline -2280K vs +620K expectedDistillates -1726K vs +261K expectedProduction unchanged at 13.2 mbpdRefinery utilization -1.5% vs +0.1% expected Tuesday’s API reading was surprisingly bearish, though the market has

The unchanged rates were widely expected after the MLF was unchanged earlier this week: People’s Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%) The hold today is despite subdued economic data and widespread expectations that the Bank will be forced to cut rates at some stage. A critical constraint on the

The broader US stock indices have now moved into negative territory and traded two new session lows. The S&P is down -18 points are -0.33% at 5469. The NASDAQ and is down -133 pointer -0.74% at 17729. Nvidia shares are now negative by $2.26 or -1.59% $133.38.Apple shares are down by $4.45 or -2.08% at

The American consumer isn’t tapped out yet. United Airlines said it expects more than 5 million Americans to fly over the July 4 holiday, in what would be a record for travel in the period. That’s a good sign for the health of consumer wallets and for jet fuel demand. UAL also says it expects

Fundamental Overview The USD has been generally weaker this week after the strength seen last week due to some risk off sentiment. In fact, it looks like it’s just sentiment that’s been driving the market recently as fundamentally the soft US inflation figures just consolidated the market’s expectation of two cuts for this year despite

Prior was 2.242% This is 2.4 bps below the when-issued yield. The strong auctions are beginning to add up. The bond market took notice of this auction with Treasury yields ticking lower across the curve to stem some of today’s rise. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Gold has been ranging near a key level as the market awaits a catalyst or key technical breakouts to find some momentum. The bullish bias remains intact though as we got some very good inflation data from the CPI and PPI last week which should support gold in the bigger picture as it

USD/JPY has risen for six straight trading days and is up another 64 pips today to the highest levels since the April 28 spike higher and intervention. A close here would be the highest since 1990. There are about Japanese banks after Norinchukin Bank said it will sell $63 billion of sovereign bonds, mostly Treasuries

The USDJPY is extending to a new high for the day. The move higher today took the price above the swing highs from earlier this week and last Friday near 158.248. After reaching a high at 158.46. The price rotated back lower, tested the break level at 158.248 and found support buyers (red numbered circle

Closing changes in the main European bourses: Stoxx 600 +0.8%German DAX +0.9%UK FTSE 100 +0.7%French CAC +1.3%Italy MIB +1.4%Spain IBEX +0.9% The volume has come down in European politics and there have been dip buyers for most of the week in French stocks. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has moved lower in trading today, and in the price process moved back below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (at 1.37079 currently – blue line on the chart below). The price has moved down to test the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.3687. The 38.2% of the

Wage growth might still be a bit too high to get back to 2% right now The market is pricing in 47 bps in cuts before year end. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Gold is trading at the highest since the June 7 drop. The chart looked to be teeing up a a head-and-shoulders top but the bulls have fought back and a rise above $2387 would help to invalidate it. The turn this week may have come after a World Gold Council survey showing that 29% of

As the North American session begins the AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The USD is mostly stronger with declines only vs the AUD. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 1.25% from the previous 1.50%. This decision, announced as

The USDCHF moved lower earlier this week, breaking below its 200 day moving average and 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 2023 low. Those levels come in at 0.88958 and 0.8883 respectively. Today, the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 25 basis points which was a tossup. That sent the USDCHF higher

Introduction Today’s stock market presents a dynamic ballet of sector performances, signified by prominent growth in tech and healthcare amidst minor slumps in consumer electronics. Our deep dive into the heatmap shows how different sectors tell their own stories, shaping investor sentiment and future market endeavors. Tech Triumphs, Semiconductor Woes The Tech sector shows a

Prior +0.2% Slight delay in the release by the source. If you strip out energy prices, producer prices were actually higher by 0.3% compared to April. The breakdown shows that an increase in prices for intermediate goods (+0.3%), capital goods (+0.2%), and non-durable consumer goods (+0.1%). That is offset by a decline in energy prices

The flow funds in the US stock market has shifted. Earlier the Dow was lower, the NASDAQ was higher, the S&P was in the middle. Currently the Dow Industrial Average average is higher, the S&P is near unchanged and the NASDAQ has turned into negative territory. The NASDAQ index has closed higher for seven consecutive

There is not enough progress on healthcare and housing pricesThe aberrations in Q1 inflation haven’t stretched into Q2 I take these comments with a grain of salt, as she’s not exactly an unbiased voice now. However the comment about the ‘aberration’ in particular shows how some in the Fed are seeing inflation, or how they

What is a catalyst? A trading catalyst is anything that causes a market reaction. The most common catalysts come from the economic data. In fact, you may have seen countless times the market reacting to an economic report and sometimes the moves can be very large. Types of catalysts There are generally two types of

US Q1 current account -237.6B vs. -206.4B expected and -221.8B prior (revised from -194.8B). This is not a market moving report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

We’re counting down the final days of Q2 but we’re still a long ways away from the first reading on GDP. Still, the tracking numbers from the Atlanta Fed are strong right now and that could keep the Fed on the sidelines in September. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual

In the kickstart video for June 20, 2024, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. EURUSD: The EURUSD held resistance against the 200 hour MA yesterday and again today. That moving average currently comes in at 1.0743. Stay below that level keeps the sellers more

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.2% This follows the sluggish showing yesterday with French stocks in particular sliding back. For today, the overall mood is a better one with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.3% after the mid-week break. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 1.50%Ready to intervene in FX market if needed and as necessaryA renewed increase in geopolitical tensions could result in weaker global activityAble to maintain appropriate monetary conditions as suchWill adjust monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium-termInflation in Switzerland is currently being driven

Headlines: BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expectedAugust back in the picture for the BOE?SNB cuts key policy rate by 25 bps to 1.25% from 1.50% previouslySNB chairman Jordan: FX intervention can be in both directionsSwiss franc falls as SNB continues with rate cutsECB’s Knot: Optimal policy path is broadly in line with

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

There has been appreciation in the Swiss francThat has an impact on monetary conditionsExchange rate plays a very important role as it influences inflation outlookWill adjust policy rate to ensure inflation stays in the range of price stability The fact that he continues to allude to the franc having appreciated should be a signal that

There are signs of cyclical weakening in the global economy but OPEC+ appears to have countered it by keeping production curtailed. US producers also haven’t rushed to fill the gap as they will have to contend with OPEC’s plan to slowly re-introduce barrels in the year ahead. That’s led to an impressive climb in oil

Good luck to the folks in Ecuador! Minister Roberto Luque: a transmission line failure caused a “cascade disconnection” “We are concentrating all our efforts on resolving the problem as quickly as possible” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It looks like Barkin may have the most interesting comments given the topic. Times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format 1245/0845 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat before the Michigan Bankers Association Annual Conference From Kashkari earlier: Fed’s Kashkari says its reasonable that rate cut could come

Prior week 242KInitial jobless claims 238K vs 235K estimate4-week moving averege 232.75K vs 227.25K last weekContinuing Claims 1.828M vs 1.805M estimatePrior week continuing claims 1.820M revised to 1.813M4-week Moving average for continuing claims 1.806M vs 1.795M last week The claims data is for the survey week and as such is higher than the prior month.

Consumer confidence -14.0 vs. -13.6 expected and -14.3 prior. This is not a market moving report but consumer confidence has been gradually improving since the lows set in 2022. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Even if this was the “expected” decision, the feel of the market was that it was closer to a coin flip. That explains the reaction in the Swiss franc, with the SNB also sticking with a more dovish stance overall. The Swiss central bank signaled that inflation is easing further, having lowered their projections on

The major US stock indices are trading mixed nine minutes into the opening, with all three indices lower than premarket levels. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow Industrial Average down -20.90 points or -0.05% at 38813.97 S&P index is trading up +10. or or +0.18% at 5497.03. NASDAQ and is trading up 48.03

Fundamental Overview The USD has been generally weaker this week after the strength seen last week due to some risk off sentiment. In fact, it looks like it’s just sentiment that’s been driving the market recently as the soft US inflation figures just consolidated the market’s expectation of two cuts for this year despite a

Earlier this week, Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company as it crossed a $3.3 trillion valuation. It’s up 82% from the April 19 low in what’s the greatest increase in wealth in a single stock in the history of markets. It truly is a marvel and for a company that doesn’t even manufacture the

Surface temperatures are above average in the west-central Pacific oceanLa Nina watch now in effect, favored to develop during July-Sept (65% chance) and persist into winter 2024-25Temp outlook favors enhanced probabilities of above normal temp reaching 60-70% are found over the Gulf coast We are just out of the warmer El Nino phase and now

There is a hiccup on the data calendar, this was out earlier in the week so just clarifying that: Westpac McDermott Miller consumer sentiment survey for the second quarter of 2024 — You’ll not next up from NZ is the economic growth data for Q1, quickie preview here, along with another for the PBOC rate

Prior was 1.360mBuilding permits vs 1.450m expected This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +4.5Employment: -2.5 vs -10.7 priorNew orders: -2.2 vs +12.2 priorPrices paid: +22.5 vs +23.0 priorPrices received: vs +5.5 priorShipments: vs +19.1 priorUnfilled orders: vs +0.8 priorDelivery times: vs -9.4 priorInventories: vs -8.9 priorAvg employee workweek: vs -18.7 prior The prior reading was a jump to a two-year high so a retracement here isn’t

There is strong case for using projection meetings to recalibrate policy stanceHigh uncertainty warrants a data-dependent approachDisinflation process remains bumpyNot all the signs are green yet when it comes to core inflationRecent shift in market expectations shows that the road to meet inflation target is bumpyWe can look through small deviations from target as long

The excitement around artificial intelligence is beginning to resemble the California gold rush; only now are companies, not individuals, chasing the new El Dorado. Representatives of all industries seem determined to incorporate the latest technology into their operations to increase productivity and reduce costs. Merchants find themselves in a situation similar to that of 150

Fundamental Overview The USD has been generally weaker this week after the strength seen last week due to some risk off sentiment. In fact, it looks like it’s just sentiment that’s been driving the market recently as fundamentally the soft US inflation figures just consolidated the market’s expectation of two cuts for this year despite

On the optimistic change, Ifo says that: “The German economy is slowly working its way out of the crisis. New hope is now emerging. The second half of 2024 should be significantly better than the first. As the year progresses, the purchasing power of private households should continue to gain strength and the overall economic

Reuters Japan corporate survey: Only 7% of Japanese companies believe PM Kishida’s pledge to have wages grow faster than inflation is achievable 61% of japanese companies see no need for govt to take countermeasures against China’s excess production capacity That 7% on wage rises is troubling for the Bank of Japan’s inflation goal – the

Will thoroughly respond to excessive FX movesFX market is determined by various factors, including interest rate differentialsRecent FX intervention was quiet effective in responding to speculators A bit of verbal jawboning there as USD/JPY continues to trickle higher since last week. The pair is holding just above 158.00 now, not much changed from before the

Bloomberg have a piece up: Hedge Fund Talent Schools Are Looking for the Perfect Trader Bloomberg is gated but if you can access it its an interesting read. The birth of these programs captures a historic change in this $4.3 trillion industry — as it moves on from the era of wildly competitive one-offs like

Nomura is expecting an on hold decision from the Bank of England today, GBP won’t be movedFederal Reserve speakers Thursday include Kashkari, Barkin, DalyHedge fund boot camp – Citadel internship pays US$19K a monthOffshore yuan at its lowest since November last year as the PBOC relaxes its grip on CNYPBOC Loan Prime Rates (LPR) remain

I posted earlier in the week the good info from HSBC on the PBOC allowing the onshore yuan to weaken a little: HSBC expect the USD/CNY reference rate to drift higher (yuan weaker) Which its done, setting the CNY at its lowest since November 2023 today: PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1192 (vs.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 mark. That will once again keep price action more contained, with downside momentum likely to meet a floor at the figure level until the expiries roll off later. Then, there is

There were a couple of dovish hints, subtle of course, put out by the BOE in their rate statement today. Let’s dive straight into it. Firstly, they introduced this passage to the forward guidance: “As part of the August forecast round, members of the Committee will consider all of the information available and how this

Prior 5.25%Bank rate vote 7-0-2 vs 7-0-2 expected (Dhingra, Ramsden voted to cut by 25 bps)For some policymakers, decision today was “finely balanced”That is because higher-than-expected services inflation reflected factors that would not push up medium-term inflationLabour market continues to loosen but remains relatively tight by historical standardsKey indicators of inflation persistence continue to moderate,

The key highlights on the agenda today are central bank decisions featuring the SNB and BOE. They will round off the central bank bonanza in June, but the decisions might end up being non-events for the most part. I’ll get to that in a bit. But for now, FX is keeping rather muted as things

New Zealand economic growth data for the first quarter of 2024 – a growing economy again, NZ exits recession. +0.2% q/q expected +0.1%, prior -0.1% +0.3% y/y expected +0.2%, prior -0.3% A beat for the q/q and y/y. NZD/USD popped on the data release: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The PBOC is expeted to hold its benchmark one and five year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged today. Current LPR rates are: 3.45% for the one year3.95% for the five year The expected hold is despite subdued economic data and widespread expectations that the Bank will be forced to cut rates at some stage. A

Solciety, a prominent player in the PolitiFi meme coin sector, has successfully raised over $300,000 within the first 48 hours of its presale, which commenced at 14:00 UTC on 18th June. The presale is scheduled to run for 30 days, concluding on 18th July. The presale success aligns with the heightened interest in PolitiFi tokens

Data earlier today brought the welcome news that New Zealand’s economy grew in the first quarter of 2024: NZ exited recession as the economy grew The data came in stronger than expected: New Zealand Q1 GDP +0.2% q/q (expected +0.1%) The latest forecasts from the RBNZ had projected 0.2% growth for the first quarter. The

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

“Well duh, a good backtesting results is when you make 1,000,000% return.” That’s what many new traders think and that’s why over 90% of traders fail. If you want to become a successful trader, you’re going to have to learn how properly evaluate a trading strategy and adjust your perception of what is a good

While futures are open the cash market is, of course, closed. NYSE and Nasdaq open for regular trading hours at 9.30am US Eastern time as normal. Thursday, 20 June and Friday, 21 June 2024 are normal trading days. — Wednesday June 19 was the holiday – hope you all had a great celebration. This article

After yesterday’s snoozefest, today we have a much livelier day as we get two major central bank policy decisions and the US Jobless Claims figures. We will also have the US Housing Starts and Building Permits data released at the same time of the Jobless Claims, but the market will likely pay more attention to

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB +0.2% This comes with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.3% on the day currently. It is still early in the day though, with the SNB and BOE policy decisions still coming up. Then after, there is the US weekly jobless claims data

Prior CHF 4.32 billion; revised to CHF 4.34 billion The Swiss trade surplus expanded in May as exports grew by 0.6% while imports fell by 6.5% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

A piece in Dow Jones / Markt Watch (gated). “Froth forecasts” compiled by State Street Associates (based on research by Harvard University professor Robin Greenwood): probability of a 40% decline at some point over the next two years — the operational definition of a crash that they use — is calculated to be 18%, lower

Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl has outlined plans aimed at improving returns on its foreign-currency reserves. Over the next five years he plans to: boost the share of equity holdings in reserves to 30%boost gold holdings from currently around 40 metric tones to 100 Says the bank won’t try to time the market in

New Zealand economic growth (or contraction) data is due at 2245 GMT (1745 US Eastern time). New Zealand is already in recession (consecutive quarters of economic contraction), a negative today would extend it. New Zealand inflation is 4% y/y way above target. The RBNZ has held rates at 5.5% at seven consecutive meetings and another

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee is meeting on Thursday, 20 June 2024. Times below are GMT, the BoE announcement is due at 1100 GMT, which is 0700 US Eastern time (as a ps. the SNB decision is due at at 0730 GMT / 0330 US Eastern time). This snapshot from the ForexLive economic

BOC Minutes: Governing Council considered waiting until July to cut ratesUS June NAHB housing market index 43 vs 45 priorCanada’s population continues to surge as it hits 41 millionECB’s Centeno: ECB will cut if disinflation process continuesCanada May Teranet house price index +0.5% m/mUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 14 June +0.9% vs +15.6% prior Markets:

I posted earlier in the week a useful piece from analysts at HSBC tipping the People’s Bank of China would allow the USD/CNY reference rate to rise: HSBC expect the USD/CNY reference rate to drift higher (yuan weaker) This indeed looks to have been the case so far, with the PBOC easing back on the

The pound is flat today at 1.2715 in part because the US is on holiday but there was some minor selling earlier after a softer UK CPI print. Inflation was up 0.3% m/m compared to 0.4% expected but it was deeper within the report there was trouble as services inflation was hotter than anticipated. Deutche

The Hong Kong exchange has, for decades, halted trade during severe weather conditions, such as typhoons. Currently, trading on the exchange is halted if the Hong Kong Observatory posts a typhoon signal no. 8 and above. In a move to preserve its status as a financial hub, and compete with Shanghai and Shenzen, Hong Kong

Reminder – PBOC monetary policy interest rate decision due Wednesday evening, US timeJapan’s Ministry of Finance proposes selling shorter term debt as the BOJ eyes rate hikeChina’s FX regulator says Will prevent yuan exchange rate from overshooting,Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi giving assurances over troubled Norinchukin BankPBOC Governor says monetary policy will provide support for

The number of foreign visitors for business and leisure was seen at 3.04 million last month. That is little changed from April and just down slightly from the all-time record in March. Compared to May 2019 i.e. the same month before the pandemic, arrivals into Japan were 9.6% higher this year. If anything, the weaker

Members recognized chance of inflation stalling but there was a consensus that indicators showed enough progress to warrant a cutMembers agreed that future easing would likely be gradual, timing would depend on data Agreed to emphasize in communications that decisions would be taken one meeting at a timeSome members were more focused on downside risks

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.4%UK FTSE 100 +0.1%French CAC -0.8%Italy MIB -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.2% The latest poll forecasts the UK Conservative leader Rishi Sunak will lose his own seat in the July 4 election. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prices up 0.5% seasonally adjustedPrices up 1.7% non-seasonally adjustedPrices up 5.7% y/yPrices are 2.04% from the May 2022 peak Leading cities y/y: Calgary 16.4%Halifax 11.4%Vancouver 8.7%Toronto +2.8% The early indications from the Bank of Canada rate cut were a bit of a surprise as it sparked a jump in listings rather than a jump in

Canadians are quickly turning against immigration as the country’s population continues to swell at a breakneck pace. The population surpassed 41 million for the first time on April 1, according to Statistics Canada. That’s after the country added 242,673 people during the first quarter. The quarterly population growth of 0.6% has been consistent over the

Prior was 45Current sales 48 vs 51 priorSix month sales 47 vs 51 prior This is the lowest reading since December. It’s the second consecutive miss in a quick fall from 51 in April. The latest retail sales data also showed poor metrics on building materials and furniture, which are proxies for housing turnover. Here

Rates will fall if inflation helps us, which it is doing ‘If we look at the monetary policy cycle as it stands today, and what we know today about inflation and the trajectory of interest rates, we can anticipate that this cycle of negative results [for the Banco de Portugal] will continue for at least

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway speech on inflation. He’ll be following up with more at 5.30pm New Zealand time (0530 GMT, 0130 US Eastern time). From his speech: Inflation may be more sticky in the near termBut inflation could fall more quickly in the medium term, there is spare capacity

The Bank of Canada kicked off a rate-cutting cycle this month and now the question is: How quickly will the cuts continue? Governor Tiff Macklem said they are taking decisions one meeting at a time and that it’s reasonable to expect more rate cuts if inflation continues to ease. Later today we get the minutes

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

NVDA price forecast for traders and investors at ForexLive.com Predicting where a stock might rest after a significant rally, especially when it’s creating new all-time highs (ATH) almost weekly, presents a unique challenge in technical analysis. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) is currently in such a phase, with its price action tightly confined within a strong bull

Fundamental Overview Copper has been rallying like crazy in the first part of the year amid a pickup in global growth, Chinese stimulus measures and concerns over tightness in global mine supply. Unfortunately, as it’s often the case, the rally attracted the momentum players, the price got overstretched and we got a big correction to

Prior +15.6%Market index 210.4 vs 208.5 priorPurchase index 146.0 vs 143.7 priorRefinance index 552.7 vs 554.7 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.94% vs 7.02% prior Mortgage applications nudged a little higher in the past week, helped by a further jump in purchase activity. That is offset by a decline in refinancing activity, following the surge higher in

North Korea fully supports Russia’s military operation in UkraineRussia plays important role in maintaining strategic balance Meanwhile, Putin says that he hopes the next time the two meet again will be in Moscow. With the G7 recently having kept much of their focus on China, the partnership between Russia and North Korea continues to deepen.

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

The string continues for the Nasdaq. The index has closed higher for 7 consecutive days with each day closing at record levels. Today’s close was by the a whisker, but it was still a positive day. The first high close was at 17192.53 back on June 10th. Today the index closed at 17862.23. That is

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged yesterday, as widely expected: RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedRBA’s Bullock: We did not consider the case for a rate cut todayRBA’s Bullock: We need a lot to go our way to bring inflation back to range Via Westpac, a recap, in

French President Emmanuel Macron called an election back on Sunday June 9. Adam on the call: Macron’s gamble is looking like a disaster as new poll released Leader of the far-right National Rally Marine Le Pen has offered an olive branch: says she won’t seek Macron’s resignation if far right wins snap election Le Pen

Headlines: UK May CPI +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y expectedHow has the BOE rates pricing changed after the inflation data today?Eurozone April current account balance €38.6 billion vs €35.8 billion priorJapan’s tourism sector continues to flourish going into the summerGerman economy minister says relationship with China has become more complexNorth Korea and Russia are entering a

Credit Agricole has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, now projecting the first cut to occur in September instead of July. This adjustment maintains the overall forecast of 50 basis points of cuts by the end of the year, with a skip in November and another cut in December. Key Points: Revised

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures flat European equities continue to try and put last week’s poor showing behind them so far this week. The slight gains slated for the open here continues the modest bounce on the week, helped by gains in Wall Street yesterday. Political woes may have ebbed but they will continue

US May advance retail sales +0.1% vs +0.3% expectedFed’s Musalem: Confidence to cut rates could take months and likely quarters to play outFed’s Goolsbee: Latest inflation number was ‘excellent’ hopefully more to comeFed’s Kugler: Policy has more work to do, judgement will be guided by dataFed’s Kugler: We have two-sided risks, we continue to pay

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

Settle in for a quiet one today with the US off on holiday. Europe doesn’t appear to be inspired today either, though we do get the Bank of Canada minutes at 1:30 pm ET. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Today is the Juneteenth holiday in the US and the US markets will be closed. The only notable event was the UK CPI report where the data showed some more progress but nothing gamechanging for the BoE. There’s not much else scheduled for today other than the US NAHB Housing Market Index and the BoC

The TL;DR on this post is that there is no rate change expected from the People’s Bank of China. On Monday the Bank set the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) unchanged: People’s Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%) The MLF rate sets the scene for the monthly Loan Prime Rate

Let’s just take a quick check of things based on the current pricing: August – 25 bps rate cut: ~32% (previously ~46%)September – 25 bps rate cut: ~80% (previously ~88%)Total rate cuts for remainder of 2024: ~44 bps (previously ~48 bps) The odds of a sooner rate cut have gone down a little despite UK

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng is speaking at the 2024 Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai” Monetary policy is supportiveMonetary policy will provide financial support for China’s economic recoveryThe weakening momentum of the USD’s rise is a benefit to the yuanWants to strengthen counter- and cross-cyclical policy adjustmentPBOC aims to maintain stability in policyWill prevent

I posted info on this yesterday as a heads up, doing so again. U.S. markets will be closed Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) is recommending the US Bond market close that day. So it is. FX desks will be closed, perhaps

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE -0.2%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB flat This takes away from the slight gains just about an hour ago. It’s going to be a bit more of a quiet one in trading today. That considering US markets are closed in observance of the Juneteenth holiday. This article was

I wasn’t expecting wild swings, but sheesh. Nothing! Link is here ICYMI: BOJ April Minutes show some concern about the weak yen on inflation & wages The hourly USD/JPY chart is looking like its getting ready to pop above 158.30. I stuck some lines on it but I’m sure tech analysts out here can do

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

Prior +2.3%Core CPI +3.5% vs +3.5% y/y expectedPrior +3.9% The readings are in line with estimates, with the monthly figures showing a 0.3% increase in headline inflation and 0.5% increase in core inflation. Despite the headline reading touching the crucial 2% mark, core annual inflation remains high at 3.5%. And the more worrying detail is

Prior €35.8 billion The details show surpluses were recorded for goods (€38 billion), services (€11 billion) and primary income (€2 billion). And these were offset by a deficit for secondary income (€12 billion). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

China is an important partner in all fieldsBut relationship has now become more complexWe do not want to separate from ChinaBut being too dependent on one country is a problem Considering the current fragile state of Germany’s manufacturing sector, it’s not the best time to strain relations with China. That said, China could also do

A draft proposal reviewed by Reuters: Japan must create an environment where government bonds remain an attractive investment for financial institutions, such as by issuing shorter-duration debt, a finance ministry panel is likely to saythe Bank of Japan’s exit in March from its radical stimulus is prodding the government to prepare for an era of

After a bit of a tussle so far in June trading, USD/CHF finally fell below a key support threshold yesterday. The 200-day moving average (blue line) has given way, alongside the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing higher this year. It’s a notable breakdown for the pair, as the downside momentum continues to build

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip against the Yen following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) in the regulator: Will strengthen countercyclical supervision, improve the solvency, deposit reserve mechanismsStudying broadening the scope of foreign shareholders in non-bank institutionsChina’s forex market operation is resilientChina’s forex market faces increasing adjustmentChina’s forex market has condition for steady operation in futureChina’s forex market remains reasonable and orderlyWill pay

Crude oil futures settled at $80.71. That is a $0.99 or 1.24%. That is the highest level since April 30. Looking at the daily chart, the price is also closing back above its 100 and 200-day moving averages at $79.51 and $79.63 respectively. The price is also closing above its 50% midpoint of the move

Results via oilprice.com on twix: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -2.2 mn barrelsDistillates +0.3 mn bblsGasoline +0.6 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The

As was widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged yesterday: RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedRBA’s Bullock: We did not consider the case for a rate cut todayRBA’s Bullock: We need a lot to go our way to bring inflation back to range I posted earlier from

There are just two to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0745 level. That is likely to help keep price action in the pair more muted, sticking closer to the expiries before rolling off later. Then, there is the one for USD/CAD at

The monthly Reuters Tankan survey, a guide to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey. For June 2024: Manufacturers index is +6, from +9 in Maypositive for the fourth consecutive monthJapanese manufacturers say their drop in confidence is due to higher materials costs.Non – manufacturers +31, from +26 in Maythree month high Outlooks: Manufacturers seen

The World Gold Council surveys central banks each year on attitudes around gold and currency reserves. This year, 29% said they plan to increase holdings in the year ahead. That’s the highest since the survey began in 2018. I think that’s even better than it looks because gold prices appreciated in the past year by

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi financial health of Norinchukin Bank is sufficient Reports are that the Japanese banking giant Norinchukin Bank is to sell USD 63bln of US and European sovereign bonds during the current fiscal year. Doing so to make up for unrealised losses. will dispose of the foreign bonds gradually during the fiscal

With hindsight the April meeting was a bit of a placeholder between the rate hike (the first in 17 years) at the March meeting: Highlights of the Bank of Japan rate decision on April 26, 2024 and the meeting last week where the Bank flagged a reduction in JGB purchases to come: BOJ governor Ueda

A major police incident has unfolded on Collins Street in Melbourne’s CBD people reporting they were told to stay inside their office buildings Police, including the bomb squad, were called to attend firearm found at the scene, not yet confirmed if it is a real one or an imitation UPDATE – area declared safe now.

Sees 2024 fiscal deficit at $1.915 trillionFY 2025-34 deficit seen at $22.083 trillion, up 10% from Feb forecast2024 real GDP seen up 2.0% vs 1.5% in Feb2025 GDP seen at 2.0% vs 2.2% in FebSees 2024-34 avg GDP growth at 1.8%2024 deficit higher due to outlays on student loans, bank resolutions, Ukraine/Israel aid and MedicaidLegislation,

Major currencies are looking rather muted and understandably so. Today will be more of a placeholder trading day with it being a US holiday. That makes for kind of a weird week as we have a bit of a recess in the middle. The dollar is keeping more mixed overall on the week while risk

Goolsbee is participating in a panel. More to come This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Exports to: China +17.8% y/ythe US +23.9% y/ythe EU -10.1% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The minutes from the Bank of Japan today are for the April meeting. The April meeting followed the March meeting. It was at the March meeting that the BoJ raised its rate for the first time in 17 years. April was more low-key. From this meeting day: Highlights of the Bank of Japan rate decision

Earlier from Conway: RBNZ’s Conway: Inflation may be more sticky in the near term More: Inflation will slow down, helped by excess capacityNZ not experiencing stagflationwelcomes the recent fall in expectations for inflation headline inflation to drop to target band by year-end This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The data release has barely moved NZD/USD, circa 0.6144 The current account represents the most comprehensive gauge of a nation’s international financial interactions. It encapsulates not just the exchange of goods and services, but also earnings from foreign investments and payments made on investments from abroad within NZ. In addition, it covers transfers like overseas

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Collins spoke on Tuesday: Fed’s Collins cautions against over-reacting to recent inflation data Read that post, sound advice from Collins. More now: its going to take some time for inflation to come downeconomic data points to an economy coming into better balanceCollins says she can see scenarios for both one and two cuts in 2024

How much we cut will be a question we continue to assess as more data comes inIt’s not an answer we can give todayIt depends on whether it is from disinflation or rapid deterioration of the labor marketRemains concerned about housing. Import and wages are still higher than productivityHave to see that continued progress on

The best traders anticipate the next trade. In this video I take a look at the GBPJPY and the EURJPY from a technical perspective and pick out the key level that will define the bullish/bearish barometer heading into the new trading day and explain why the levels are important. The level will either keep the

The Canadian jobs market will face cyclical pressures in the coming months that will lower inflation and lead to rate cuts but in the years ahead, the economy could struggle to keep wage inflation in check. Right now, just 22% of firms report labour shortages in the Bank of Canada’s latest Business Outlook Survey; that’s

German DAX futures +0.6%UK FTSE futures +0.5% The gains here owes to the surging run higher by US stocks overnight. But for European equities itself, the overall mood is much steadier as compared to last week as political woes have ebbed slightly as well. US futures are more muted though, keeping flattish on the day.

Bloomberg with the article titles: Trading Indicator With 100% Win Rate Signals Sell Long Bonds Now Sheesh, …. The Bloomberg piece is gated but if you can access it here is the link: Trading Indicator With 100% Win Rate Signals Sell Long Bonds Now If you can’t access it, here is the gist: A technical

ECBs Villeroy is on the wires saying: We owe our citizens respect, that means not running bigger deficits that can’t be financedThat also means quickly clarifying our countries economic and budget strategy. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Would you believe it, the plucky chipmaker that doesn’t even make its own chips is now the world’s most-valuable company. Shares are up another 3.3% today and have been on a non-stop run since the release of ChatGPT. However it becoming more valuable than any other company is one of those things that should make

Preponderance of labor market data shows it coming into balanceMon pol is ‘sufficiently restrictive’, economic conditions moving in the right directionIf wage growth continues to moderate, will soon be at levels consistent with price stabilityMost indicators point to a slow, steady easing of labor marketWatching closely for signs of labor market deteriorationI expect some cooling

May CPI data was welcome newsGreat to see CPI data but will need to see several more months to have confidence inflation heading to 2%Will be watching data in coming months quite closelyIn a good position to be patient on policyWill be watching and seeing what’s happening in the economy If you take this at

The NZDUSD experienced a decline during the Asian session, moving down to retest and briefly dip below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Additionally, the price fell below last week’s lows (see the red and green lines at 0.61029). However, after these failed breaks, the price rebounded and surged higher during the US

The USDCAD has exhibited fluctuating trading patterns this week, continuing a trend seen since April. Since then, the pair has mostly oscillated between 1.3600 and 1.3800, with frequent ups and downs. This week mirrors that pattern, with the price moving lower today and approaching the 100 and 200 bar moving averages (MAs) on the 4-hour

Oracle stock got an intensive boost after the software company released its financial report for the fourth quarter of 2023. Interestingly, the Q4 results were worse than expected. Let’s explore what impressed market participants and why Oracle shares are trending this year. First, let’s examine the chart. It shows a massive spike after Oracle’s earnings

Too soon to say if inflation is retreating to 2%Appropriate for US central bank to remain patient on mon polRemains ‘realistic optimist’ on economy and mon polRecent inflation data has been encouragingEconomy has been remarkably resilientRestoring price stability may take more time than thoughtInflation is still stubbornly above target This isn’t dovish. We’re still a

After mixed data with weaker retail sales and a stronger industrial production/capacity utilization, the US major indices are opening marginally higher. Yesterday both the S&P and NASDAQ index closed at record levels. A snapshot of market six minutes into the open currently shows: Dow Industrial Average average up 71.21 points or 0.18% at 38849.32S&P index

Federal Reserve speakers today include Barkin, Collins, Kugler, Musalem, Logan, GoolsbeeUS data focus for Tuesday – May retail sales – the range of expectations to watchBank Japan Gov Ueda: Must be vigilant to impact of weak yen, import price moves on economyECB Vice President Luis de Guindos is speaking on TuesdayNZD traders heads up –

He needs to observe a period of favorable inflation, moderating demand and expanding supply before he will have confidence for a rate cutThe conditions could take months, or more-likely quarters to play outIf inflation becomes stuck meaningfully above 2% or moves higher, he would support additional tighteningSays he will remain vigilant until inflation is clearly

High yield: 4.452%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.480%Tail -2.8 basis points vs six month average of 0.1 basis pointsBid to cover: 2.74X versus a six month average of 2.6XDirects 16.35% vs six-month average of 18.9%Indirects 77.89% versus six-month average of 67.8%Dealers 5.77% vs six at average of 13.3% Auction Grade: A The

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $13 billion of 20 year bonds at 1 PM ET. The six-month averages of the major components will be compared to the actual results to determine success or failure of the auction: Tail: 0.1 basis pointsBid to cover: 2.60XDirects (a measure of domestic demand): 18.9%Indirects (a measure of international

Prior month 0.0% (revised to -0.2%) Details: Retail sales for May +0.1% vs +0.3% expectedEx-auto MoM -0.1% vs +0.2% expected. Prior month +0.2% (revised to +0.1%)Control group +0.4% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month -0.3% (revised to -0.5%)Ex auto and gas +0.1% vs. -0.1% prior (revised to -0.3%)Total nominal sales for the March 2024 through May

This will be an unusual US trading week with a holiday sandwiched in the middle on Wednesday. Before that, we get the data highlight of the week with the May US retail sales report. The consensus is for a 0.2% rise following a flat number in May. The question on my mind is if we’re

The US dollar has made a nice comeback today, despite the softer retail sales data. The latest round of bids came ahead of the London fix, so that could have been a driver, especially with a US holiday tomorrow. That said, the bids came early for a fixing trade and the rally in oil prices

Before the May retail sales report, I wrote about how the metric I would be watching most-closely wasn’t the control group, but the market. We’ve been a bad-news-is-good-news regime for the past 18 months but evidence has been mounting that the market is beginning to see the Fed as behind the curve. That will ignite

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 2Q growth remain unchanged at 3.1%. IN their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on June 18, unchanged from June 7 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Department of

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: Depending on economic, price and financial data and information available at the time, there is chance we could raise interest rates at July meeting Decision on BOJ’s bond tapering and short-term rate target are two different things Earlier from Ueda: Bank of Japan Gov Ueda expects strengthening in Japan wage-price

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speaking from parliament expects strengthening in Japan wage-price cycle – underlying inflation to gradually acceleratesees Japan’s economy recovering moderatelymonitoring the FX impact on economy and inflationdata out since April roughly in line with BoJ estimates We need to scrutinise data a bit more to judge whether underlying inflation will heighten

Prior was +1.7%Whole milk powder -2.5% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.1%Inventories ex-autos +0.3% This is rarely a market mover but it’s an important number in GDP calculations. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar is at the lows of the day as the selling accelerates following a softer retail sales report. I want to highlight what the bond market is now saying about inflation, with 5-year breakevens now at 2.16%. That is despite oil prices trading at a six-week high at $80.70. The bond market is

It’s hard to know how much signal to take from inflation last year, or this quarter, or last couple of weeksI didn’t quite get more confidence in Q1 this year about inflation, we’ll see where we goOn the goods side, I hear pricing power is waningThis month’s inflation reading was very encouragingLabor market is also

The AUDUSD sellers made a play to the get outside of a swing area on the downside at 0.6575. The low price reached 0.6584. that low was also just above the 38.2% retracement of the move up from April at 0.6579. Buyers leaned against the low area. The price has rebounded higher over the last

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Headlines: RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedRBA’s Bullock: We did not consider the case for a rate cut todayRBA’s Bullock: We need a lot to go our way to bring inflation back to rangeECB’s de Guindos: Best time to make rate decisions is together with updated projectionsGold stays in consolidative mode but

Japan finance minister Suzuki: Ministry of finance will continue debt management through dialogue with marketsInterest rates are set by markets reflecting JGB demand and various aspectsDecline to comment on Bank of Japan’s decision last week on planned reduction of JGB purchases Ueda is speaking at the same time: Bank of Japan Gov Ueda expects strengthening

Another day, another record: US stocks start soft and then surgePreview: What to watch for in the May US retail sales reportWTI crude oil rises back above $80 in a $2 climbPowell to deliver Humphrey Hawkins testimony on July 9WSJ Timiraos: See’s core PCE falling to 2.6% from 2.8% lastFed’s Harker: I think one cut

After the previous attempt to get above 158.00 stalled on Friday last week, dip buyers are showing up once again to test the figure level today. The slight bounce in bond yields this week is helping with that at least. But traders are not really showing much respect to BOJ governor Ueda’s remarks earlier in

Fundamental Overview We had some good news last week when both the CPI and the PPI came in on the soft side. This should help the stock market in the bigger picture since it will give the Fed more confidence to begin decreasing rates in the latter part of the year. The FOMC decision last

Adam posted the latest from Kalanovic. I don’t know why he bothered, the bearish view never changes: US stocks keep climbing higher but J.P. Morgan’s Kolanovic is having none of it Meanwhile, the people tasked with actual risk taking at JPM are having none of him: While we had thought the market was setting up

1330 GMT / 0930 US Eastern time: Speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos at a joint conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank on European Financial Integration in Frankfurt, Germany This doesn’t sound like it’ll have much, if anything, on the economy or policy. You never know I guess. This

The AUDUSD has been fluctuating mostly between 0.6575 and 0.66896 over the past 6-7 weeks. This prolonged period of oscillation has led to the near convergence of the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart, which are now positioned between 0.66318 and 0.66349. Today, weaker US retail sales data and an RBA

On the one hand, political fears are almost always a buy. On the other hand, Europe is uninvestible most of the time. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +0.3%UK FTSE 100 +0.65%French CAC +0.8%Italy MIB +1.2%Spain IBEX +1.0% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The CHF Is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The AUD is stronger after the RBA decided to keep the cash rate steady at 4.35% in its June 2024 monetary policy decision. The move aligns with expectations. The statement said that since peaking in 2022, inflation has notably

Precious metals have lost much of their momentum from May trading but while silver has retraced the upside move by quite a bit, gold is still pretty much in consolidation territory. Granted, the run higher in gold largely came earlier in March and April. In May, gold threatened fresh record highs above $2,400 but ultimately

Prior was 0.0%Capacity utilization 78.7% vs 78.6% expectedManufacturing output +0.9% vs +0.3% expectedPrior manufacturing output -0.3% (revised to -0.4%)The index for mining increased 0.3% in May, and the index for utilities advanced 1.6%The index for defense and space equipment rose 1.0% and was nearly 10% above its year-earlier levelfull report This is an impressive reading

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The projections are updated every three monthsWe’ll have new ones in SeptemberThose are the most significant and interesting moments from the point of view of monetary policyThey are a very important indicator when it comes to deciding on rates Once again, this continues to effectively rule out a chance of a move in July. That

The USDCHF is “making a break for it” in trading today. More specifically, the market is breaking below and away from its 200 day moving out at 0.8896. It is also breaking below and away from it 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December low May high. That retracement level comes in at

Prior 4.35%Inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022Conditions in the labour market eased further over the past monthBut it is tighter than is consistent with sustained full employment and inflation at targetThe economic outlook remains uncertainThe process of returning inflation to target is unlikely to be smoothThere are uncertainties regarding the lags in

The retail sales came and weaker than expectations, and that weakened the US dollar a little. Yields are lower, stocks in premarket trading are little changed (but they aren’t necessarily enamored with the idea of lower growth/lower inflation hope. Having said that, markets are treading water (now) including the US dollar. In this video take

Prior +2.4%Core CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelimPrior +2.7% No changes to the initial estimates as euro area inflation remains stickier in May. We’ll have to see how the trend develops in Q3 to get a better idea if the ECB may look to cut rates in September next. This article was written by Justin

Fundamental Overview We got some very good news last week as both the CPI and PPI came in on the softer side. This should support the stock market in the bigger picture as it will give the Fed more confidence to start cutting rates at some point in the last part of the year. The

I did a full post on this during the best 😉 Asian timezone: US data focus for Tuesday – May retail sales – the range of expectations to watch This is an abbreviated version with “just the numbers”. – On Tuesday at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time we get retail sales for

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: As we taper bond buying, we will of course be aiming to shrink size of our balance sheet in ratio to GDP termsBasic purpose of our bond tapering would be to allow yields to move more freely driven by market forces, and revive market functioningJapan’s economy will likely see more

To put things short, the RBA is waiting on one of two things to happen next. That is either the economy weakens further in a more significant manner to prompt them to cut rates. Or that they get their wish and inflation falls, allowing them to also cut rates. For now, the lack of progress

NY Fed Pres. Williams is speaking on FOXBusiness: Rate cut path depends on data. US economy is doing well, is in better balance.Fed decision to depend on economy.Things are moving in right direction for monetary policy.Expect interest rates to come down gradually as inflation eases.Politics will not influence fed right decision.We have a very strong

Prior -72.3Economic sentiment 47.5 vs 50.0 expectedPrior 47.1 After a decent recovery in previous months, German economic sentiment is seen stalling as we look towards June. It applies to both the headline reading and the outlook index. Of note, ZEW says that inflation expectations have increased and that is perhaps a contributing factor. Adding to

Citi is joining a chorus of calls in revising higher their outlook for the S&P 500 as of late. You can check out the other calls here from earlier this week. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

But would not say that the case for a rate hike is increasingVery conscious that high rates are hurting some sectors of the countryInflation is also hurting the people, so we are focused on bringing it downUse of the word ‘vigilant’ does not mean a rate hike is coming Her remarks reads a lot like

Nothing from Cook on the economy nor monetary policy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Crude oil reversed all of its losses from the last week of May, when, despite OPEC+’s extension of voluntary output cuts, the market fell as the price broke out of a month-long range. The dip could have been purely technical, as bearish momentum increased following the breakout. The price eventually bottomed around $73

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) down 0.1% y/y expected -1.0%prior -9.6% drop in Aprilelectronics exports growing for a second straight month For the m/m, also -0.1% but painting a disappointing picture: expected +1.7%prior +7.3% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

European investors are seeing the optimism at the open earlier fade rather quickly on the day. The CAC 40 index in particular opened nearly 1% higher but has pared all of the gains on the day to near flat levels. It’s a sign that while political woes have ebbed to start the week yesterday, risk

Fundamental Overview The USD last week lost ground across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed

There’s not much that can move the market in the European session as we have just the Final Eurozone CPI readings and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. The “Final” readings are rarely impactful because the market generally moves the most on new information, especially those pieces of news that can reshape future expectations. 09:00 GMT

The testimony will come just days after the June non-farm payrolls report but two days before the June CPI reading. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Gold got stuck in a consolidation near a key support zone as the market awaits a catalyst or key technical breakouts to find some momentum. Last week, we got some very good inflation data from the CPI and PPI which should support gold in the bigger picture as it will give the Fed

The Australian central bank is expected to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at today’s meeting. Considering that inflation remains well above the RBA’s threshold range, there is no reason to take their foot off the gas pedal just yet. In terms of language, don’t expect much of a change to what we saw

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A barrage of Fed speak to come today. Some look very pertinent to traders. The times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format. 1400/1000 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin participates in an MNI Webcast discussion, “Outlook for the US Economy and Fed Policy.” 1540/1140 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins

Eurostoxx +0.6%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC 40 +0.7%UK FTSE +0.5%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +1.0% French stocks continue to show a modest rebound as political woes have ebbed slightly to start the new week. But those risks remain a key factor to watch out for, especially as we move closer towards the snap election at the

There was a discussion on whether to hike rates at the meetingBut decided to stay the course on policyWanted to make a point that we are alert to upside risks on inflationDifficult to get a read on inflation with just quarterly data The aussie is nudging a little higher as Bullock reveals that rate hikes

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 mark. That is likely to keep price action more contained near the figure level, if there is any slight push towards the downside in the session ahead. There are also some larger ones at 1.0670-75 for

A note on Monday from Citi, downgraded its outlook on European equities to ‘neutral’ from ‘overweight’. Simultaneously upgraded the more “growth-oriented” US. Citi’s key reasons for the Europe downgrade: heightened political risks; narrowing market leadership; and potential for a continued positioning unwind More: “Our sector allocation is tilted towards growth (‘overweights’ in tech, industrials) and

The USDCHF moved higher into the US session with the 0.89318 as a target followed by the 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines near 0.8939). The 0.89318 was defined by the swing lows from Thursday last week and Asian Session lows on Friday. That level was tested today on the move higher

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway will deliver a speech on inflation at 9am New Zealand time on Wednesday, 19 June 2024 this is 2100 GMT and 1700 US Eastern time on Tuesday, 18 June 2024Watch the live stream Conway will follow up at 5.30pm New Zealand time the same day (see

Major currencies are lightly changed on the day, with the dollar starting the week with a more mixed showing yesterday. The euro holding steadier as political woes ebb ever so slightly. But those risks are still persistent and may come back to bite at the single currency with eyes on the French snap election at

Westpac McDermott Miller consumer sentiment survey for the second quarter of 2024 comes in at a woeful 82.2 prior 93.2 — The quarterly New Zealand Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence survey measures the confidence and sentiment of consumers regarding economic conditions. It is a comprehensive survey that includes various indices, such as the overall Consumer

On Tuesday at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time, we get retail sales for May 2024. Consensus expectations are in the table below. This snapshot is from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. As for the ranges. For Retail sales m/m: -0.1% to +0.5% For Retail sales excl autos m/m: -0.1%

These are the main summary points from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia Reserve Bank of Australia preview. Analysts at the bank expect the RBA to leave policy on hold and the neutral bias to be kept We expect the RBA Board will leave the cash rate unchanged next week in a straight forward decision.The Q1

Via a research note from HSBC on the yuan: expect daily USD/CNY fixing to slowly drift higherwhich will see spot also trending upwardsdon’t expect the move up to quick (HSBC say not like August last year when USD/CNY jumped nearly 700 points in 8 days)says the gradual increase of the reference rate is likely to

Nomura with a review of last week’s Bank of Japan decision, what to watch for the yen, and a preview of the next BoJ meeting: The June meeting had no hawkish surprisesThe BOJ decided to reduce JGB purchases after the July Monetary Policy Meeting, with the details to be determined at that MPM. Nomura says

All-time highs in US stocks are like the sunrise these days: Guaranteed every day. A sluggish start today slowly reversed as trader bought the dip in a time-tested strategy that delivered once again. The S&P 500 is up 37 points now, or 0.7% to 5468. The Nasdaq Composite is up 0.9% and also at a

A heads up for Ellis Connolly, Head of Payments Policy at the Reserve Bank of Australia, speaking at 10.10 am Sydney time. If you do see alerts to this speech its probably not going to move AUD at all. The focus from the Reserve Bank of Australia today is on its policy decision due at

A snapshot note via Westpacon their Australian dollar view. In brief: We anticipate wider and higher ranges for AUD in the month ahead. Volatile French politics will have their sway over the global risk climate, but a resumption of more encouraging US disinflation trends and revamped Fed rate cut bets should ultimately prove more decisive.

The RBA is expected to keep its cash rate unchanged, quick preview here: Reserve Bank of Australia meet Monday & Tuesday, likely cash rate hold @ 4.35%, 12 yr high Prior to the RBA we get Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook giving acceptance remarks and receiving an award at the 70th Anniversary Celebration of

On the day: S&P 500 +0.8%Nasdaq Comp +1.0%DJIA +0.5%Russell 2000 +0.7% Toronto TSX Comp -0.3%. Breadth was better today than it was late last week but it was chipmakers Broadcom, Qualcom and Micron leading the way with some help from Tesla and Apple. Nvidia gained just 0.1% in a rare day of underperformance for the

U.S. markets will be closed Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) is recommending the US Bond market closed that day. So it is. FX desks will be closed, perhaps the odd skeleton crew — As for futures markets, for Equity Products at

J.P Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic made his name as a market-structure analyst but at some point he parlayed his fame into a job as an equity strategist and it hasn’t gone well, considering his bearish stance has run head-first into a roaring bull market. Nonetheless, he remains undeterred and today writes: “.. Our cautious stance

Following an OPEC-inspired dip to start the month, oil has now completely erased the decline and is threatening the May highs. WTI crude oil settled up $1.88 to $80.33 per barrel. That’s the highest settlement since late April and just shy of the May intraday high of $80.62. Last week there was a surprise build

Domestic sight deposits CHF 445.3 bn vs CHF 450.1 bn prior The past week sees a notable drop in Swiss sight deposits, with the trend now stretching all the way to April. If anything, it suggests the SNB possibly intervening in the FX market – that is to sell foreign currencies in exchange for the

Exness, one of the world’s largest retail brokers, announces its role as the Official Global Partner of iFX EXPO International 2024. This premier B2B event is taking place at the City of Dreams in Limassol between 18 and 20 June 2024. Exness’ participation reinforces its commitment to fostering a dynamic and collaborative environment where the

The EUR is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is starting the new trading week – heading into the US session – mostly stronger. The greenback is only lower vs the EUR . The EURUSD was lower earlier in the day, but has risen in

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.5%Italy FTSE MIB +0.8% The political angst in the region will continue to be a factor to be mindful of in trading this week. For now, there is an air of calm but we’ll see how things go with US retail sales data also on

Today is likely to be one of those Mondays when the price action could swing up and down for no apparent reason given the lack of catalysts. These days is generally better to preserve capital and refrain from trading. The only notable events on the agenda include lots of central bank speakers for the ECB

Russian President Vladimir Putin is travelling to North Korea tomorrow and will hold meetings on June 19. RIA reports that he may sign a partnership agreement during the visit that will include security issues. Putin along with Kim will make statements to the press following their meetings, which are the first bi-lateral meetings between the

The AUDUSD is lower on the day and in the process extended below the low from Friday. What the sellers could not do was to extend the fall below the 38.2% of the move up from the April 2024 low at 0.6579, and also a swing area between 0.6575 to 0.6585. The low price reached

The USDCAD has creeped higher in trading today. The range is only 34 pips currently with the average range of 62 pips over the last month of trading. Nevertheless, the price of the USDCAD has taken the price above a swing area between 1.3734 and 1.37428. The price is also moving away from its 50%

Bitcoin has been steadily sold over the past 12 hours after trading higher earlier. It’s down 0.7% on the day and is threatening the $65,000 level and last week’s low of $64,924. Cracking that would leave it at a one-month low despite US equities hitting records. It may be an example of the worsening breadth

Some local Australian data, ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads for May 2024: -2.1% m/m -18.1% y/y Says ANZ on the release: -23.9% from its peak in November 2022still more than 20% above pre-pandemic levels “The (revised) ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series shows a softening over 2024, with an 8.2% fall since the end of last year.

Last week was a bruising one for European equities as political turmoil spread throughout France, leading to debt and deficit fears. Today, some of that was scaled back. Closing changes Stoxx 600 +0.1%German DAX +0.4%UK FTSE 100flatFrench CAC +0.9%Italy MIB +0.8%Spain IBEX -0.4% CAC 40 daily: This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD last week lost ground across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed

The EURUSD fell below a swing area on Friday between 1.0720 and 1.0735. Selling intensified, and the price low moved down toward 1.0666 before bouncing back into the Friday close. Today, the initial move was to the downside in the Asian session, but the price has since bounced higher and back toward the aforementioned swing

Goldman Sachs maintains its EUR/USD forecast at 1.05 for the next 3 to 6 months. The outlook is influenced by potential political uncertainties and the resulting policy divergence, which could weaken the Euro. Key Points: Political Uncertainty Impact: Euro Weakening: Political uncertainty, especially around elections, may erode progress in economic indicators, inviting further policy divergence.Soft

The three major US stock indices are trading higher with the NASDAQ index leading the way. A positive close today in the NASDAQ would be is sixth consecutive record closing level. On Friday, the S&P index fell marginally (-0.04%). The snapped its 4-day positive streak (and 4 days of successive record closes). The Dow Industrial

Fundamental Overview The USD last week lost ground across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed

Bank of America suggests a long AUD/CHF trade in anticipation of policy divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Swiss National Bank at their upcoming June meetings. The recommendation is based on recent Australian labor market data reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate stance from the RBA. Key Points: RBA Policy Outlook: Expected Rate Decision: