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For many in the Democratic party, the July 4th long weekend would have been an opportune moment for President Biden to announce that he was no longer seeking re-election. Instead, he doubled down and survived an unremarkable sit-down interview with ABC. A total of 5 congressional Democrats are now publicly calling for Biden to withdraw […]

Last Friday, we got the US NFP report. Now, I’m not an economist, so I try to look at it from a market participant’s perspective gathering analyses from the experts in labour market data. Overall, the report was relatively soft. The 3-month moving average of employment gains fell to 177K, which is the lowest since

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, gold spiked to the upside following the US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. That made the real yields to drop and gold to accelerate to the upside. This has been the case for

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the 3-major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. EURUSD: The EURUSD is trading near session highs as the North American session begins, and looks toward eight swing area between 1.08538 and 1.08617. The 1.08618 level also corresponds with the 50% midpoint of the range

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USDJPY moved down to test a key swing level (and found buyers). The US stocks – after closing at records in the S&P and the Nasdaq – are little changed. European markets are higher. Yields in the

Here’s the detailed breakdown: On price trends, the BOJ notes that many regions are saying wage hikes are spreading among smaller firms. So, that is a positive consideration that the central bank is laying out as they seek to hike rates further down the road. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Domestic sight deposits CHF 444.4 bn vs CHF 443.0 bn prior Swiss sight deposits have stabilised somewhat in the past few weeks, after having fallen in the months before. Here’s the trend: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Monday has no significant events scheduled, but Tuesday, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell, who is set to testify on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington DC. His testimony will continue Wednesday and other FOMC members are also expected to deliver their remarks throughout the week. Last

Light crude oil futures technical analysis and trade idea, for short 👋 Hello traders and investors! This is Itai Levitan from ForexLive.com, bringing you the latest technical analysis and trade ideas for Light Crude Oil Futures. Let’s dive into the current market setup and discuss potential strategies for your consideration. Oil futures trend analysis 📈

German DAX futures -0.1%French CAC 40 futures -0.5%UK FTSE futures -0.1% The more tepid mood in US futures also isn’t too helpful, with S&P 500 futures down 0.2% on the day. But for European equities, it’s mostly about the French elections. I shared some thoughts earlier here. This article was written by Justin Low at

British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) survey: 39% of member companies it surveyed expected to raise prices over the next three monthsdown from 46% in its previous survey published in April More results: sales and cashflow improved in Q2 2024 to pre-pandemic levelsshare of firms expecting an increase in turnover in the next 12 months rose

The next truly open meeting is in SeptemberWe are comfortable with the progress in disinflation, market pricing on rate cuts It isn’t anything that we don’t already know. Knot also adds that the date in which they must meet the inflation target must not slip beyond 2025. Well, we’ll see. I mean, they have a

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but growing. We will see if the market will be

Australian Home Loans for May 2024 -1.7%, dropping back from the strong performance in April: prior +4.8% Owner – Occupier Loan value -2.0% m/m prior +4.3% Investor Loan Value -1.3% m/m prior +5.6% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0785 level. It isn’t one that offers much technical significance but could act alongside the key daily moving averages at 1.0794-97 in locking any downside price action in the session ahead. The reaction to the French election

The data agenda is of lower-tier releases only. Not likely to shove major FX rates around too much upon release. Of most interest is likely to be the wages data from Japan. Japanese policy authorities are awaiting wage growth to fuel inflation and thus moves to further normalise monetary policy (the BoJ meet on the

ICYMI, info on the US employment report, market response etc is here: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 5 Jul: NFP for June sent the USD lower/yields tumbling Meanwhile, via Goldman Sachs note: the report overall was softer-than-expected, and downward revisions lowered the three-month average pace to +177k from +249k as previously reportedThe industry composition was

Rick Rieder is BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income. He’s posted up a tweet storm on Friday’s jobs report, in brief: there is a very gradual, but persistent, moderation within the broader employment pictureWhen you sum up the conditions of these employment indicators and the trend that they clearly depict, in terms of cooling, and

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It was supposed to be Le Pen’s coronation and it ended up being anything but that. Her National Rally (RN) faction was handily defeated over the weekend as the French people rejected a far-right government. The combined efforts by Macron’s Ensemble bloc and the leftish coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP) worked wonders in creating

Data from China over the weekend showed the PBOC didn’t buy and gold in June, after buying none in May. The two consecutive month pause comes after the Bank had been a consistent buyer in the 18 months prior. China held 72.80 million troy ounces of gold at the end of June, same as the

Chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Thomas Jordan spoke on in an interview published on Friday by Le Temps. Adam had the headlines. ICYMI Jordan had pointed comments on the Swiss franc: CHF can be significantly influenced by political “uncertainties” both within Europe and globally“This is something we need to take into consideration” and

TMGM, a trailblazer in global online trading and investment services, took center stage as the Gold Sponsor of the Vanuatu Financial Services Commission’s (VFSC) groundbreaking Second Symposium on Virtual Assets. This pivotal event, held on Thursday, June 27, 2024, in Port Vila, convened an elite gathering of finance brokers, regulators, government officials, and international experts

Coming up on Monday, a speech from Rachel Reeves, Britain’s first female Chancellor Will cover topics such as:wholesale planning reforms to make it easier to buildgreater focus on driving through key infrastructure projectsboost housebuilding“Where governments have been unwilling to take the difficult decisions to deliver growth – or have waited too long to act –

Today is going to be a boring day on the data front as we don’t have literally anything on the calendar. The markets will likely trade based on the Friday’s US NFP report or we might see some general consolidation in the next couple of days as we head into the US CPI on Thursday.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. The mover in this very time is EUR, down from its level late Friday after the French election appears to have reulsted

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce their decision at 2pm New Zealand time on Wedensday the 10th July, which is is 0200 GMT on the 10th and 2200 US Eastern time on the 9th. Brief comments via Westpac on what to expect: we are not anticipating any change in the OCR – which will

Bank of America say that the confidence of the Federal Reserve seeing inflation returning to 2% will come down to shelter inflation. BoA cite the importance of the sector due to its weight in cor CPI and core PCE inflation. BoA argue that if shelter does not move lower, then achieving 2% core inflation requires

Its beginning to feel like Asia FX is going to sit on hand awaiting Powell on Tuesday, and perhaps some feedback from him on the jobs report Friday, ICYMI: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 5 Jul: NFP for June sent the USD lower/yields tumbling On Tuesday, 9 July 2024, at 1400 GMT / 1000 user

Substantial losses in the crypto and decentralized finance (DeFi) sectors YTD amounting to USD 1.19billion. The report comes via Finance Magnates: citing a report from blockchain security firm CertiK: phishing attacks emerged as the most damaging vector, accounting for $497.7 million in losses across 150 incidents. “Q2 2024 experienced the highest losses since Q3 of

Japan’s inflation-adjusted, ie real, wages fell in May for a record 26th straight month, down 1.4% y/y April was -1.2%falling after inflation wages is dampening household spending, which in turn is making the BoJ’s efforts to normalise monetary policy uncertainweak yen and higher commodity prices pushed up the cost of imports There are some better

Let me first jump to CBA’s conclusion on what to watch ahead: We expect a Q2 trimmed mean CPI of 0.9%/qtr or less would see the RBA leave the cash rate on hold in August (our forecast is 0.9%/qtr). An outcome of 1.1% /qtr or above would mean an August rate hike is more likely

KiwiBank with a forthright preview of the RBNZ meeting this week (Wednesday) Any talk of hikes now would be overkill. The data has clearly turned. Of course, there are still some hurdles to get through. We still need to see inflation back within the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. A hard task that should be accomplished

The French left-wing alliance is projected to win 172 to 192 seats. This is well short of a majority but is ahead of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, looking at coming third with 132 to 152 seats. President Macron’s centrist party, Ensemble, will win 150 to 170 seats. None of these three has a

Week Ahead 7th-12th July: Sun: French Election (second round)Mon: CNB Minutes (June), Eurogroup Informal meeting of Competitiveness Ministers; Japanese Overtime Pay (May),German Trade Data (May), EZ Sentix Index (July), BoI Announcement, US Employment TrendsTue: BoJ Bond Meeting 9-10, EIA STEO; Australian Consumer Sentiment, Hungarian CPI (June), Mexican 12-monthInflation (June), Powell Testimony (Senate)Wed: RBNZ Announcement, OPEC

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Japan Wage data.Tuesday: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Fed Chair Powell Testimony.Wednesday: Japan PPI, China CPI, RBNZ Policy Decision, Fed Chair Powell Testimony.Thursday: UK GDP, US CPI, US Jobless Claims.Friday: New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, US PPI, US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Tuesday Fed Chair Powell will testify to the Senate

I believe that global central bankers are on the verge of making a growth-wrecking mistake. Generals always fight the last war and central bankers are going to continue to fight the ghost of inflation, even as it becomes increasingly clear that the inflationary threat is over and the bigger risk is recession. On Thursday, ECB

US Sen. Mark Warren is seeking to eight symbol a group of Democratic senators to ask Pres. Biden to exit the race for president. Biden has been losing support on Capitol Hill and also amongst his financial supporters according to sources.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF is trading to new lows for the week today after rallying into resistance at the start of the trading week (on Monday). That upside resistance came within a swing area between 0.9044 and 0.90565. The subsequent move to the downside did try to find support against its 100-day moving average midweek, but ultimately

As the trading week works toward a close, the NZDUSD is trading near highs for the week. Technically the move to the upside has also breached the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.61116 and the 200 bar moving average on the same chart at 0.61267. The high price today reached 0.6139. As we

Sun, Jul 7 All Day: EUR – French Parliamentary Elections Mon, Jul 8 No major events listed Tue, Jul 9 10:00 am: USD – Fed Chair Powell Testifies on Capital Hill1:01 PM ET: U.S. Treasury sells 3-year notes9:30 pm ET: CNY – CPI y/y. Estimate 0.4% versus 0.3% last month9:30 pm ET: CNY – PPI

NASDAQ closed at new record levels each day of this trading weekUS Sen Warren seeks to assemble a group of Democratic senators to ask Biden to exit raceKey events and releases for traders in the upcoming trading weekCrude oil futures settle at $83.16Geopolitics: Head of Israel’s Mossad returned from Doha after initial cease-fire meetingsBaker Hughes

All three major indices closed higher today. For the NASDAQ it closed higher for the fourth consecutive day. Each of those days was a new record close. The S&P index has higher for its fourth consecutive day with three of those closes being at new record levels. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow

Crude oil futures are settling the day $83.16. That’s down $0.72 or -0.86% on the day. The high price today reached a $84.49. The low price extended to $83.12. Although lower today, the price is up 2.15% for the trading week. At session highs for the week the presence of $3.05. Session was the price

Baker Hughes weekly rig count: Oil 479, unchanged on the week. Natural Gas 101, +4 on the weekTotal rig count 581, +4 on the week Crude oil is currently trading at $84.04 up $0.17 or 0.20%. The high price reached $84.52 (that was the high for the week). The low price was at $83.02. The

Headlines: What NFP data could surprise the market?Labour party wins UK general election, beating 326-seat majority threshold in the CommonsBitcoin tumbles to its lowest since February as downside momentum intensifiesFed’s Williams: Still a way to go to reach our 2% targetGermany May industrial production -2.5% vs +0.2% m/m expectedEurozone May retail sales +0.1% vs +0.2%

In geopolitical news: Head of Israel’s Mossad has returned from Doha after initial cease-fire meetings. Negotiations are to resume next weekGaps remain regarding deal for hostage release and Gaza cease-fire This is according to PM Netanyahu’s office This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

In the kickstart FX video from July 5, 2024, I take a technical look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. Today the US jobs report was mixed with the June non-farm payroll jobs higher than expectations but revisions to the prior two months of offsetting those gains. The unemployment

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast growth estimate for Q2 growth falls to 1.8% down from 1.93% on June 28 The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2024:Q2 is 1.8%, with the 50% probability interval at [0.8, 2.9] and the 68% interval at [0.3, 3.3]. The Staff Nowcast is 2.1% for 2024:Q3.News from this week’s

I posted this during the Asian timezone but doing so again now for those who may have missed it. You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month) result.The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the

Prior -0.1%; revised to +0.1% It’s another dismal reading for German industrial output, once again reflecting rather poor conditions in the sector. If you exclude the energy and construction sectors, production actually fell by 2.9% in May compared to April. Looking at the details, there were falls across the board in the production of capital

The USDCAD traded to the lowest level since June 3 earlier today, and in doing so tested the lower basement area down to 1.35972. The 200-day moving years was just below that level at 1.35953. The low price today reached 1.3601 as buyers /profit takers leaned against the swing area. The combination of the US

Prior -0.1%; revised to 0.0% House prices eased marginally in the UK and remained thereabouts for a third successive month now. The average UK property value is now seen at £288,455. Halifax notes that it reflects “a market that remains subdued, though overall activity has been recovering”. This article was written by Justin Low at

Reuters have polled analysts on expectations for the RBNZ’s interest rates path ahead. The next policy meeting is on July 10, with no change the consensus expectation. Tbe Bank is holding rates at their highest in 15 years, at 5.5% for the Official Cash Rate (OCR), due to sticky high inflation. The most recent official

Prior was 52.0Non-seasonally adjusted vs 59.1 prior This is a low-tier indicator but the Bank of Canada is in a tight spot right now. The market was 50/50 ahead of the Canadian jobs report but has shifted to 56% in favor of a cut. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Interest rates are our main policy toolAlso ready for forex interventions Given a cyclical slowing and potential for a hard landing in the US and other parts of the global economy, there’s a good case to buy the Swiss franc and I think that willingness to intervene will be tested. His comments on inflation are

The AUDUSD has been trading mostly between 0.6573 and 0.67134 going back to early May. This week, the price rope to the upside reaching the highest level since early January. Today, the price corrected lower upheld sport against the old highs near 0.6708/0.6713. The price broke higher. The price corrected down to retest the break

The NASDAQ is trading near session highs, up 153 points or 0.85% at 18341.51. A closed higher today would be the fourth consecutive day with record high levels for the index. The S&P is on its way to its third consecutive record high with enterprise currently up 20 points or 0.36% at 5557.00. The Dow

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. All else

Prior month 26.7KEmployment change -1.4K vs 22.5K estimateUnemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.3% estimate. Prior month employment rate 6.2%Full-time employment -3.4K vs -35.6K last monthPart-time employment 1.9K vs 62.4K last monthParticipation rate 65.3% vs 65.4% last monthAverage hourly wages YoY 5.60% vs 5.20% last month Weaker than expected job gain but the unemployment rate moves higher.

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX +0.1%UK FTSE 100 -0.6%French CAC -0.4%Italy MIB -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.5% There was some early optimism in European stocks that faded in the final 90 minutes of trading. I expect a sigh of relief in French stocks no matter the results on Monday but at the same time, there is

The current tally sees them at 337 seats, surpassing the 326 seats needed for a working majority in the House of Commons. The result is as expected, with it being a landslide victory for Labour. There’s still more counting to do and they should win anything just north of 400 seats based on current projections.

Nick Timiraos says today’s jobs report wasn’t alarming enough to put a July rate cut on the table (pricing is just 5%) but says that it could open up a real debate about September. The June jobs report will make the July Fed meeting more interesting because there may be—for the first time all year—a

Household Spending for May 2024 -1.8% y/y expected 0.1%, prior 0.5% For the m/m -0.3% expected +0.5%, prior -1.2% Cited amongst reason for the dramatic drop: higher prices continued to squeeze consumers’ purchasing power Well, that’s a terrible result! Japanese policymakers are trying to achieve sustained economic growth underpinned by solid wages and durable inflation.

Market Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a dynamic trading landscape, with a standout performance from technology majors like AMD and Google amidst varying sectoral trends. The snapshot highlights key movements that provide a bellwether for investor sentiments and market direction. 🔍 Sector Analysis Semiconductors: A noticeable divergence appears within this sector. Advanced Micro Devices

Japan finance minister Suzuki says weak yen is pushing up import costsweak yen is having an impact on priceshas concerns on While still only words, these are comments are stronger than what we usually get from Suzuki. More: will monitor stock and FX markets with vigilance Ok, that’s more like his usually wishy-washy self! This

German DAX futures +0.2%French CAC 40 futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.3% No big setbacks for European equities on the week, after the Monday optimism was tempered a fair bit initially. With that, even the CAC 40 is on course for 3% gains this week and erasing last week’s losses. This article was written by Justin

A July move is a non-starter but the odds of a September rate cut are currently at ~80%. As for the year itself (four meetings left), a total of ~48 bps of rate cuts are being priced in. In other words, traders are seeing roughly two rate cuts by the Fed before year-end. Looking at

The Canadian dollar softened following a rise in June unemployment to 6.4% from 6.2%. The market was expecting a tick higher to 6.3% but the economy shed 1400 jobs in the month and signs of weakness are mounting. That’s why the recent drop in USD/CAD may present a buying opportunity. The pair has dipped on

As traders in the US return from the Independence Day holiday reluctantly, they will need to face the US and Canada jobs reports (locked and loaded). The expectations are for US non-farm payroll to come in at 191K vs 272K, the employment rate to stay at 4.0% (unchanged from last week), and average hourly earnings

The major US stock indices are trading mixed after the mixed US jobs report. Non-farm payroll jobs rose 206K versus 190K, but permanent revisions were lower by over 100 K. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4.0%. Moreover, government jobs added 70K mile and education and health added another 82K which cared for 74%

This (in brief) from ING rapid response to the UK election results, based on the exit polling: Election result gives green light to August rate cut Markets are pricing a 60% chance of an August rate cut, and we think that’s too lowwatch out for comments from BoE rate-setters next week, which might seek to

Further progress seen on inflation this year but still need ‘greater confidence’ before moving to cut ratesHousing-related inflation to gradually declineStill significant disparities in the jobs marketFinancial system sound and resilientValuations high relative to fundamentals in major asset classesFull report“Inflation eased notably last year and has shown modest further progress so far this year”​​. “The

When the market trends, traders are better served to understand when the market shifts the trend, versus trying to pick a top or bottom depending on which way the market is trending. For the GBPJPY, it has been trending over the last seven or so months. The price has also been above (and comfortably) its

I like how there’s no wasting time in naming a cabinet in the UK. In most places this can take weeks or months. Rachel Reeves is in a delicate spot after the gilt blowup under Liz Truss. This appointment isn’t a surprise and she’s aiming to project stability, saying she would never “play fast and

Interest and liquidity is much thinner than normal on the afternoon/evening of the Independence Day holiday. But, CME futures are open for trade. For more info, here: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The signs were already building yesterday, with sellers testing the waters below the 200-day moving average (blue line). That is eventually leading to a break of the May low today and the momentum continues to run. Well, it’s definitely not looking pretty on the charts. In terms of catalysts, people are pointing to Mt. Gox

It’s jobs day! Be sure to read: June non-farm payrolls by the numbers — the headwinds are starting to blow The market is antsy about a softening economy so I don’t think a weak report will goose risk assets the way it used to, but that remains to be seen. A strong report would likely

We have to return politics to public servicesWe must show that politics can be a force for goodOur task is nothing less than renewing the ideas that hold the country togetherVows a transformed Labour party, pledges to govern for the whole country It’s pretty much his winning speech, so it’s mostly just rousing remarks. Sunak

Coincident index 116.5 vs 115.2 prior The assessment of the coincident index has been changed as being from “signaling a possible turning point” previously to now “halting to fall”. That comes amid the uptick in recent sentiment as evident by the improvement in the readings above. The leading index is also seen at the highest

I posted on this earlier: The PBOC is preparing capacity for large scale yuan bond sales Bloomberg (gated) had the report. The PBOC is preparing to step into the Chinese government bond market in a larger way, seeking to stem the bond rally by selling medium- and long-term bonds it plans to borrow from the

Victor Orban met with Putin today and now we get comments from the Russian President: We are grateful for the visit to MoscowOrban relayed to us the western point of viewRelations with the EU are at their lowest pointOrban called for ceasefireKyiv does not want to stop the war until it’s wonWe discussed possible ways

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The GBP,

Prior was +272K (revised to +218K) Details of the May 2024 jobs report: Two-month net revision -111K vs -15K priorUnemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.0% expectedPrior unemployment rate 4.0%Participation rate 62.6% vs 62.5% priorU6 underemployment rate 7.4% vs 7.4% priorAverage hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expectedPrior avg hourly earnings +0.4% m/mAverage hourly earnings +3.9% y/y

The long-term, secular case for gold is that Russia, China, India and the Middle East are buying in increasing amounts. However the gold rally stalled after data revealed that Chinese official gold buying paused in May. There’s also some thing of a mania around gold in Chinese retail circles that argues for caution. However the

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

0940 GMT / 0540 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives keynote before the 4th Suresh Tendulkar Memorial Lecture event organized by the Reserve Bank of India I don’t expect him to drop any clues on the NFP, if he even has any. But still, Williams is always worth

Fundamental Overview After a couple of weeks of consolidation, the S&P 500 this week found some footing and eventually extended the rally into a new all-time high following the soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view

We still have a way to go to reach our 2% target on a sustained basis. We are committed to getting the job done.Uncertainty will continue to be the defining characteristic of the monetary policy landscape for the foreseeable future. There’s nothing new here that he hasn’t already said recently. This article was written by

Prior -0.5%; revised to -0.2% The reading is marginally off estimates but a better revision is seen for April at least. Here is the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY tells a story of a market that isn’t sure what it wants to do with the non-farm payrolls data. The headline beat estimates but it’s clearly a dovish report with large downward revisions, higher unemployment and weak private payrolls. “Overall, it was a softer read on the labor market, albeit not dramatically weaker,” writes

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The AUD,

Discover how to accurately spot and trade the inverted hammer across different markets and timeframes The post The Inverted Hammer (A Definitive Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The broad TOPIX index of Japanese stocks hit a record high on Thursday, finally surpassing the high set in December of 1989. Comments via an analyst at Swiss private bank Julius Baer, in summary indicate further upside ahead, citing: corporate reformscurrency and flowspay hikesearnings revisionsgeopoliticslarge market caps are adding to the positive outlook for Japanese

In the Asian session, Eamonn published a nice article on the range of estimates for today’s US NFP report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction. Here’s what Eamonn wrote on this topic: WHY THE RANGE OF ESTIMATES IS IMPORTANT Data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to

European Central Bank President Lagarde spoke with Portuguese TV, RTP on Thursday: “We have to remain vigilant and we have to be confident that inflation is continuously down and that the data that we receive on wages, on profit, on activity, reinforce our confidence that we are on a path to win the fight,” More:

What a mauling. Among the big names on the list are Penny Mordaunt, leader of the House of Commons, and Grant Shapps, defence minister. The eleven in total now surpasses the previous record of seven Cabinet ministers losing their seats in 1997, when Tony Blair brought the Labour party to power at the time. The

There’s not much in it among major currencies but the dollar is continuing to hold more sluggish on the week. EUR/USD is holding within a 20 pips range today, up 0.1% to 1.0825 while USD/JPY is down 0.3% to 160.73. The latter started to lose some steam in trading yesterday and the near-term chart reflects

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% The CAC 40 index has bounced back quite well this week, up around 3% and erasing the losses from the week before. Still, we’re not out of the tunnel yet. The second round of the French elections is coming up later

It’s ok to fall. It’s not ok to stay there. Perhaps that’s the new motto at Elon Musk’s Tesla. The company has erased its year-to-date losses by adding a remarkable $150 billion in market value in just three days. Just a few months ago, Tesla was a laughingstock on Wall Street. Wells Fargo famously called

Prior -€7.58 billion; revised to -€7.56 billion Here is the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

● The US Department of Labor will release its report on Friday, the 5th of July. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) are expected to have declined to 190,000 in June. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.0%. ● Since the beginning of the year, the interest of financial market participants has increasingly shifted towards data

Via The Block: Collapsed cryptocurrency exchange Mt Gox moved over 47,000 BTC -6.22% to another wallet late evening on Thursdaycomes ahead of its impending $9 billion worth of bitcoin repayment to creditors, “This significant payout, amounting to US$9 billion, is expected to add substantial selling pressure as the market absorbs the additional supply,” CoinDesk adds:

Mt Gox and German cops hit Bitcoin lower, under US$56KEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde is speaking again on FridayJapan finance minister Suzuki says weak yen is pushing up import costsNew York Federal Reserve President John Williams speaks on Friday, pre NFPMore on the People’s Bank of China move to stabilize government bond yeildsPBOC sets USD/

Today is an important day for financial markets as we will get to see the latest US NFP report. The Fed is now more focused on the labour market than inflation, and an unexpected deterioration might force their hand to cut rates. The European session is pretty empty on the data front as we will

Via CNBC: Disney heiress, wealthy Democratic donors say they won’t finance the party until Joe Biden drops out Abigail Disney: “I intend to stop any contributions to the party unless and until they replace Biden at the top of the ticket. This is realism, not disrespect. Biden is a good man and has served his

French poll puts National Rally well short of absolute majorityA Fed official highlighted ‘some warning signs the real economy is weakening’ Here are twoPreview: June non-farm payrolls by the numbers — the headwinds are starting to blowECB accounts show some mixed views on confidence towards inflation outlook Markets: US equities and fixed income closedWTI crude

The data we just had was very disappointing indeed: Japan data – May household spending -1.8% y/y (expected +0.1%) A Japanese government official: higher food prices pushed down spendingweaker yen pushed down overseas package tour spending The thing about the weaker yen is its also contributed to a massive surge of inbound tourism into Japan,

USD/JPY had popped earlier on the poor spending data: Japan data – May household spending -1.8% y/y (expected +0.1%) After highs circa 161.40 USD/JPY gave it all back. The momentum was added to by a little more aggression in the comments from Japan’s finance minister Suzuki earlier: Japan finance minister Suzuki says weak yen is

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD and a rather large one at that at the 1.0800 mark. However, the US holiday yesterday and dollar sluggishness on the week has seen price action move beyond the range of what I would’ve expected to be the upper

The UK election came in pretty much as expected: UK exit poll tips a solid win to Labour, 410 seats – new UK government incomingGBP is little changed after the UK election exit pollUK political stability (relative to elsewhere) will support UK markets aheadElection result gives green light to August BoE rate cut – GBP

GBP is little changed. *** Joint exit poll from BBC, ITV and Sky News show a huge landslide to the Labour Party. Labour to win 410 seats, the most by any party since 2001Conservatives routed with 131 seats, the fewest since the party was founded in 1834 The others: Liberal Democrats on 61Reform UK on

A note from Bank of America prior to the election said that it appeared to be a non-event for UK markets. Which was correct given the opinion polls overwhelmingly favouring the new government. UK exit poll tips a solid win to Labour, 410 seats – new UK government incomingGBP is little changed after the UK

1215 GMT / 0815 US Eastern time: Introductory remarks followed by Q&A by ECB board member Frank Elderson in panel “Embedding data culture in supervision” at Data Innovation for Future of Regulation (DIFoR) Conference organised by the Financial Conduct Authority 17515 GMT / 1315 US Eastern time: On-stage conversation with ECB President Christine Lagarde and

People’s Bank of China said to be readying capacity for ‘hundreds of billions’ in yuan bond sales. Aimed at tempering the bond rally by creating a multibillion-yuan pool of bonds it’ll borrow from major banks, then sell themWill buy and sell bonds ‘based on market conditions.to borrow bonds on an open-ended unsecured basisPBOC has signed

You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. Taking a look at the

Exit poll here: UK exit poll tips a solid win to Labour, 410 seats – new UK government incoming GBP/USD is around 1.2759, barely changed EUR/GBP also little changed around 0.8473 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

None of the data from Japan today is likely to impact major FX rates (yen specifically) upon release. Traders will be biding their time, waiting for the NFP: Preview: June non-farm payrolls by the numbers — the headwinds are starting to blow This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times

I say ‘near certain’ to be conservative, but to find another election that’s so clear cut as this you’d have to head to Russia or China and the ilk. Anyway, the exit poll is are due, from the BBC, Sky, and ITV, at 10pm London time, which is 5pm US Eastern time (and 2100 GMT

What’s expected: Consensus estimate +190K (Goldman Sachs at the low at +140K, FAO Economics at the high at +250K)May +272K vs +185K expectedPrivate +160K estimate vs +229K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.0% vs 4.0% priorParticipation rate: 62.5% priorPrior underemployment U6 7.4%Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% y/y vs +4.1% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3%

ETH has been losing ground since early last month. Its extended the loss a little more today: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.1% With it being a US holiday today, the market mood is looking rather subdued. Major currencies also aren’t up to much with narrow ranges still holding for the most part. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Some members felt that the data available since the last meeting had not increased their confidence that inflation would converge to the 2% target by 2025These members also viewed risks to the inflation outlook as being tilted to the upsideWage growth had surprised to the upside and inflation seemed to be stickierServices inflation momentum was

The main line of thinking on bitcoin is that the recent round of selling pressure is related to the distribution of the 141,000 bitcoin from the Mt. Gox bankruptcy. It’s hard to imagine that was 10 years ago but at the time bitcoin was trading at around $600. It will likely turn out that holding

Australia – trade balance for May 2024 The rise in exports is the best in 9 months, but this was overshadowed by the rise in imports. A huge turnaround in imports from the -7% drop in April. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I spoke with Andy Bell at BNNBloomberg yesterday in a wide-ranging interview about the state of global markets and what’s coming in a cyclical slowdown. I also got to touch on the disruption coming from AI and why central bankers are wrong about inflation. Some highlights: Canadian Dollar and Interest Rates: “Canada is a country

I have a hard time imagining the UK election will be much of a market mover, given that the results have been a foregone conclusion since the start of the campaign. It will be a Labour majority, and a large one. How large? We will get a good idea at 10 pm London time, which

On Tuesday, comments from Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee got my attention. He took a more cautious stance on the economy and said he sees “some warning signs the real economy is weakening.” He also spent the past year talking about the potential for a ‘golden path’ or soft landing but sounded more cautious, saying

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +0.4%UK FTSE 100 +0.8%French CAC +0.8%Italy MIB +0.8%Spain IBEX +0.1% I have a longstanding belief that you should always buy equity indexes ahead of election results. They create so much angst but very little change and the market generally breathes a sigh of relief, no matter the results. This

Prior 2.4% The Swiss jobless rate remains table in June, with the number of registered unemployed persons falling to 104,518 from 105,465 in May. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Yesterday we got some notable misses in the US Jobless Claims and the US ISM Services PMI. Intial Claims remain pretty much stable around cycle lows and inside the 200K-250K range created since 2022. This shows that layoffs are not accelerating and remain at low levels, which is also something that we’ve seen from the

Prior 54.7 Overall activity continues to expand in the UK construction sector, although the rise has cooled since the month before. That owes to a renewed downturn in housing activity. Meanwhile, commercial activity continues to expand at a sharp rate and that is helped by a modest rise in civil engineering activity as well. S&P

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke with UK media, BBC radio: getting inflation back to 2% will take time still much data to be had on the economywarns against prolonged high interest rates This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a US holiday so I’m taking all the market moves today with a grain of salt but the general theme is US dollar selling, perhaps in a delayed reaction to yesterday’s weak ISM services reading (it fell to a four-year low). In the past few hours, the euro has taken advantage and is now

Firms are telling us that wage pressures are coming down In other words, he’s trying to maintain the narrative that they believe inflation will continue to ease going into next year. And more importantly, that price pressures will continue to converge towards their 2% target. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

There is an increasingly-clear picture of a French parliament with a hard split between the left and right, leaving the centrists as the kingmakers. it takes 289 seats to achieve an absolute majority and the latest poll from IFOP projects: Far right National Rally at 210-240 seatsLeft wing New Popular Front at 170-200 seatsMacron’s centrists

Trading conditions today will be marred by the US holiday, so there might not be much in it. Major currencies are holding in tight ranges so far today after having seen the dollar ease slightly yesterday on the back of a softer US ISM services PMI here. Meanwhile, equities continue to rip higher and that’s

Earlier : Ongoing Washington machinations – Biden and Harris to meet with Democrat Governors.Kamala Harris memecoin KAMA has rocketed higherTrump says Biden is quitting the race, “that means we have Kamala.”Biden met with Democrat state governors – Biden determined to beat Trump at ballot box Reuters with more info on Wednesday evening (US time) developments:

Yesterday, I spoke with Kitco News in a great interview with Jeremy Szafron that focused on the US dollar and the macro outlook. Some highlights: Federal Reserve’s Strategy: “I think in this instance it’s going to be especially damaging for the Federal Reserve because they…always fight the last war. They’re fighting inflation and the market

It’s election day in the UK but there is no mystery about what is going to happen. The Conservatives are going down in flames with YouGov’s MRP poll forecasting Keir Starmer’s Labour will win 431 seats, up 229 from 2019, with the Tories on 102, down 263 seats from the last election. That would leave

Headlines: The UK heads to the polls todayWhat has changed after yesterday’s US data?Bitcoin drops again, faces mounting technical pressureECB’s Lane: Wage tracker shows much lower wage growth in 2025 and 2026ECB accounts show some mixed views on confidence towards inflation outlookGermany May industrial orders -1.6% vs +0.5% m/m expectedGermany June construction PMI 39.7 vs

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Japan earthquake – M5.4, off Chiba prefectureJapan stocks – Topix index, and Nikkei have each hit a record highECB speakers on Thursday, 4 July 2024 include Lane, McCaul and CipolloneBiden: “No one is pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end”Ether has dipped to its lowest since May 20Australian May

Today the US is on holiday for Independence Day and the calendar is pretty much empty. The main event was the Swiss CPI which missed expectations and should raise a bit more the chances of another rate cut in September. We will also have the UK general election where the Labour party is expected to

Fundamental Overview The USD yesterday weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The

The UK election is today, Thursday, 4 July 2024. The Labour Party is set to win in a landslide. This via Goldman Sachs, in summary (from a much longer piece) of the economic outlook under the new government: Taken together, we would look for slightly stronger near-term growth and slightly higher inflation under a Labour

Here is the link for the video, may be gated: Trump Caught on Video Claiming ‘Broken-Down’ Biden Has Quit: ‘It’s Kamala’ Trump called US President Biden a “broken-down pile of crap” “He just quit, you know—he’s quitting the race,” Trump says, sitting in a golf cart. “I got him out of the—and that means we

After what looked to be a hold of the $60,000 mark has quickly turned ugly for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency dipped in trading yesterday and is continuing that drop today under the figure level. Of note, the low earlier even briefly touched below $57,000 and is threatening a bigger break on the charts. The 200-day moving

If you’re American, the bad news is that US markets are closed today. The good news is that your local furniture retailer is having their ‘biggest sale of the year’. It’s a strange week in trading that’s generally followed the script. The week of July 4th is seasonally one of the strongest of the year

Japan’s Topix hit a record high on Thursday rose to as high as 2,890.52, breaking a high of 2,885.50 set in December 1989also beat a record closing high of 2,884.80 on the same day *** TOPIX is the Tokyo Price Index covers all domestic companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange

Fundamental Overview The USD yesterday weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The

J.​P. Morgan says the rally in crypto/​bitcoin so far this year has fueled much of the growth in stablecoins: In contrast to last year when market participants were still reeling from the collapses of several high-​profile crypto entities, the regional banking crisis, and of course, the Fed’​s tightening campaign, the stablecoin market is growing once

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, gold broke out of the recent range and extended the rally following some weak US data. In fact, the Continuing Claims rose to a new high and the ISM Services PMI hit a new cycle low. That made the real yields to drop and gold to accelerate to the upside. This has

It’s not much but the dollar is looking a little sluggish, keeping with the drop from yesterday. EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.0800 still, holding at the upper bound for the week. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is now down 0.4% and dipping just under the 161.00 mark: What is notable in the chart above is that buyers

Fundamental Overview The USD yesterday weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The

0900 GMT / 0500 US Eastern time: Master in Economics and Finance (MEF) 2024 Lecture by ECB board member Philip Lane at the University of Naples Federico II Lane spoke earlier this week:ECB’s Lane: June inflation data seems in line with our assessment 05:35 Participation by ECB board member Elizabeth McCaul in 28th Annual Economist

Major currencies are already largely lacking appetite, with small changes and tight ranges holding. The dollar was weaker yesterday, following the softer US ISM services PMI here. The moves were decent with EUR/USD pushing the boundaries near 1.0800 but is holding just below the figure level for now. But with it being the 4th of

I’m not sure how heavily you weigh this because I believe you talk like you’re going to stay in until it becomes hopeless. Very few people in history have given up power gracefully, that’s just the nature of power. Here is what Biden told the campaign call, according to a Politico reporter: “Let me say

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for NZD/USD at the 0.6130 level. It isn’t one that holds any technical significance but could play a role in keeping a lid on price action amid holiday-thin trading today. The overnight high hit 0.6129 in trading yesterday,

Epicenter: Off Chiba Prefecture. N 35.2 , E 140.5 Depth: 50 kilometers Preliminary magnitude: 5.4 Seismic intensity scale: 4 out of maximum 7 (this is the Japanese scale) Note: No tsunami warning issued Yen unmoved This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +1.4%Core CPI +1.1% y/yPrior +1.2% If the SNB needs a reason to pause on rate cuts, they certainly can point to this. At the same time, the inflation trend here fits with the change in their decision to go from FX sales to FX purchases in Q1 this year. That considering core inflation has

After a bit of a stutter following the opening gap higher on Monday, the pair is making up for that now in a push towards 1.0800. The high yesterday briefly broke the figure level but the close ultimately settled below that. And more importantly, sellers maintained a close below the confluence of the 100 (red

Prior -0.2%; revised to -0.6% That’s not a pretty number with a softer revision in April to boot. If you strip out large orders, incoming orders in May were down 2.2% relative to the month before. Looking at the details, the drop owes much to a decline in foreign orders (2.8%) while domestic orders were

I thought KAMA was the Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average. I need to get with the times! KAMA meme coin chart via Coingecko” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The early results will only start to trickle in late in the day (or should I say night), so just be wary of that. The pound will stay in focus as such but much of the results should already be priced in. Labour is expected to sweep the elections comfortably, so we’ll see by what

Prior 38.5 Though an improvement, the reading is still a very poor one and reflects the massive struggle in Germany’s construction sector. Total activity is still seen contracting but at the slowest pace in 10 months while new orders saw its softest drop in 16 months at least. While housing activity is continuing to pick

It’s a subdued data agenda ahead for today, Japan weekly flows and Australian May trade data is about it. Speaking of Japan, trading of US Treasuries (physical) will be closed for the 04 July 2024 US holiday. The UK election voting kicks off in a few hours time. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data

Standard Chartered analysts on BTC: if Biden drops out, the price of bitcoin could drop to $50,000bitcoin prices will stay soft if Biden is supplanted by alternative candidates But, otherwise: BTC to 100K USD by election day (Trump favours crypto over Biden) *** Previously Barclays had an end-2024 price estimate to $150,000 This article was

Adam spoke in an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday, on CAD and also the UK election and what it means for GBP Video link is here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We had the heads up yesterday that US President Biden would be meeting with Democrat Governors at the White House Thursday evening scheduled for 6.30 pm US Eastern time Vice President Harris will be there also. Via Political Campaign Reporter @CBSNews: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Journal (may be gated) with a piece on a barely concealed network of buyers, sellers and couriers bypassing the Biden administration’s restrictions aimed at denying China access to Nvidia’s advanced AI chips. More than 70 distributors are openly advertising online what they purport to be Nvidia’s restricted chips, This is an interesting read. Its

The FOMC meeting minutes have been released from the June meeting: Vast majority of participants at Fed’s June 11-12 meeting assessed U.S. economic growth appeared to be gradually cooling, minutes showMost participants saw current policy stance as restrictiveA number of participants said policy should stand ready to respond to unexpected economic weaknessSeveral specifically emphasized further

Biden-Harris campaign issues readout with democratic govs. Biden determined to beat Trump at ballot box, campaign says Minnesota Governor Walz says had a good conversation with US President Biden and that Biden is fit for office Maryland Governor Moore says Democratic Governors announced they will support Biden in the election – I’ve always thought that

All US stock and bond markets are closed US Bond markets closedFX desks will be skeleton staff, if any At the CME, the major venue for popular products such as ES and NQ, equity index futures trade: Currently open, Globex tradeThursday, July 4th 12:00pm trade halts, then at 5:00pm it re-opens Friday, July 5th Regular

The news of Marko Kolanovic leaving JP Morgan is all over the place. While details are thin (basically non-existent) the speculation is his departure comes due to being bearish during the enormous surge for US stocks. Dow Jones/Market Watch with the background: Kolanovic’s departure from the bank follows a two-year stretch of disappointing market calls

New Zealand updates its budget deficit 11 months into its financial year. deficit is NZD 7.75bn for the 11 months, which is 1bn lower than was forecast. One of the bear arguments for NZ is its fiscal woes. At the margin, then, this is a bit of encouraging news. This article was written by Eamonn

Oil finishes the day strong to end $1 higher as it caps fourth straight week of gainsBiden says on campaign call that he’s not dropping out – reportFOMC meeting minutes: vast majority saw the growth gradually coolingECBs Stournaras: Two more rate cuts in 2024 seems reasonableAtlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 2Q falls to 1.5%

The USDCAD has continued its move to the downside today on the back of lower rates and the weaker US data, Technically, the price moved below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart yesterday, and remained below those MAs in the early Asian session today, before moving lower on the data. The

There are strong signs of travel demand in the US this 4th long weekend, with air bookings setting records. Combine that with a big draw in US inventories in today’s report and a hurricane in the Atlantic and gold finished the week strong. There was something of a ‘sell the fact’ trade immediately after the

ECBs Stournaras is saying: Two more rate cuts this year it seems reasonableRecent data strengthens the case for more cuts a littleRates will still be restrictive, after two more cutsService inflation shouldn’t be over-interpreted A bit more dovish than others. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It remains to me a mystery how Marko Kolanovic became chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan. He was famous as an expert on market plumbing, particularly in fixed income. He had never been someone who people turned to for macro views. But he got headlines and evidently that was enough for him to get the

European major indices are closing the day with solid gains. The advances are led by the Spain’s Ibex which rose 1.32%. Other major indices increased by 1% or more with the exception of the UK FTSE 100 ahead of its elections tomorrow. The final numbers show: German DAX, +1.16%France CAC, +1.24%UK FTSE 100, +0.61%Spain’s Ibex

Bloomberg is reporting that dozens of U.S. House Democratic lawmakers are considering sending Pres. Biden a letter demanding that he withdraw from the race. There were reports that Biden spoke with key Democratic leader Schumer. The New York Times reported that an ally of Biden told them that the president was considering dropping out if

Final Services PMI 52.1 vs. 51.2 prelim and 52.9 prior.Final Composite PMI 52.3 vs. 51.7 prelim and 53.0 prior. Key findings: UK Services Business Activity Index falls to seven- month low. Demand for services improves, but at relatively soft pace.Confidence dips slightly amid general election uncertainty. Comment: Joe Hayes, Principal Economist at S&P Global Market

Prior week 233K revised to 234Kinitial jobless claims 238K versus 235K estimate4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 238.5K vs 236.25K last weekContinuing jobless claims 1.858M versus 1.840M estimateContinue claims last week 1.839M revised to 1.832M4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.831M versus 1.814M . This is the highest level since December 4, 2021 This

DB on key risks ahead for the second half of 2024, with a more general warning mixed in that “surprises can be just around the corner” Economic data has been surprising on the downside over recent weeks Investors are becoming more nervous about fiscal policy given higher levels of debt and interest rates Inflation lingering

More record closes for the S&P and Nasdaq indices with the Nasdaq leading the way. Lower yields and talk that Biden would look to step down, seemed to give investor some confidence. Tomorrow the US stocks will be closed in observance of the July 4 holiday. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average average

Retail Sales come in stronger than expected. Comments from the Australian Bureau of Statistics playing down the strong results: “Retail turnover was boosted this month by watchful shoppers taking advantage of early end-of-financial year promotions and sales events. “Retail businesses continue to rely on discounting and sales events to stimulate discretionary spending, following restrained spending

Pres. Biden reportedly told an ally that he is weighing whether to continue in the race. That is according to the New York Times: President Biden acknowledges his candidacy may be at risk if he cannot convince the public of his capability after a poor debate performance.He understands that his upcoming appearances, including an interview

AP had the report: Taiwan said the Chinese coast guard boarded a Taiwanese fishing boat Tuesday before steering it to a port in mainland China, and demanded that Beijing release the vessel.boat had six crew onboardvessel was just over 20 kilometers (12 miles) away from Jinjiang in mainland China when it was boarded, Taiwanese authorities

German DAX futures +0.3%UK FTSE futures +0.4% After the losses yesterday, European indices are looking to bounce back again after the rise in US equities. Although tech shares led gains, the Dow also ended up by 0.4% and that exemplifies the broader market mood. But for Europe, there is still the risk of the French

One for the won traders This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The weekly EIA oil inventory data shows : Crude stocks down 12.157 million barrels to 448.54 million, vs forecast of 0.7 million barrel drawGasoline stocks down 2.214 million barrels to 231.67 million, vs forecast of 1.3 million barrel drawDistillate stocks down 1.535 million barrels to 119.73 million, vs forecast of 1.2 million barrel drawCushing up

The value of R-Star is always highly uncertainBut the case for a sizable increase has yet to meet two important testsRecent data reinforce the continuation of pre-pandemic trends in global demographics and productivity growthOne should not overly rely on estimates of R-Star in determining appropriate monetary policy setting at a given point in time This

Final Services PMI 53.1 vs. 53.5 prelim and 54.2 prior.Final Composite PMI 50.4 vs. 50.6 prelim and 52.4 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 53.1 (May: 54.2). 3-month low. HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 50.4 (May: 52.4). 3-month low. Cost inflation lowest since March 2021. Comment: Commenting on

US-based employers announced 47,786 job cuts in June, which is roughly 20% higher than the same month a year ago. The monthly pace of layoffs has been easing a touch since February, so that’s a slight positive. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

And it is expected to be a rather one-sided affair, with Labour set to claim victory for the first time in 14 years. So, how and what is the impact of this going to be on the pound? The expectation here is that it is going to be a landslide victory for Starmer and his

Prior month 53.8business activity index 49.6 versus 61.2 last monthemployment 46.1 versus 47.1 last monthnew orders 47.3 versus 54.1 last monthprices paid 56.3 versus 58.1 last monthsupplier deliveries 52.2 versus 52.7 last monthinventories 42.9 versus 52.1 last monthbacklog of orders 44.0 versus 50.8 last monthnew export orders 51.7 versus 61.8 last monthimports 44.0 versus 42.8

Prior month 152K revised higher to 157Kgoods +14 Kservices it was 138Ksmall firms +5Kmedian +88Klarge companies +58Kleisure and hospitality 63Kconstruction 27Kprofessional and business services +25Ktrade and transportation/utilities +15Knatural resources/mining -8KThe median wage for job stayers came in at 4.9% YoY versus 5.0% last month. For job changers, the wages rose 7.7% versus 7.8% last month.

Prior month $-74.6BUS international trade $-75.1B vs $-76.2 billion estimate.Goods trade balance $–99.37B vs $-100.68 prior monthservices trade surplus $25.1 billionexport $261.7 billion or -0.7%imports $336.7 billion or -0.3% the US trade data is in reality a trade deficit each and every month. The deficits have been rising of the late (see chart below) but

The USDCHF moved lower after the weaker than expected US data today. However, after breaking below its 100-hour moving average at 0.90134, its 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.89972, support buyers came in against the key 100-day moving average at 0.89836. Recall from Friday last week and Monday’s trade this week,

Prior 49.3Composite PMI 48.8 vs 48.2 prelimPrior 48.9 The higher revision means that the French services sector only marginally contracted in June, as the sharpest fall in new orders since January weighed on output. Besides that, there’s also softening in sentiment amid the elections with business confidence easing alongside jobs growth. HCOB notes that: “Election

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 2Q falls to 1.5% from 1.7% after recent data. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 1.5 percent on July 3, down from 1.7 percent on July 1. After this morning’s releases

Bloomberg have the report (may be gated): Chinese and Russian companies are developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine, European officials familiar with the matter said, a sign that Beijing may be edging closer to providing the sort of lethal aid that western officials have warned against. For potential investors

Eurostoxx +0.6%Germany DAX +0.5%France CAC 40 +0.6%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% This follows from the losses yesterday, which tempered with some of the gains on Monday. French politics will remain a focus but there’s a balance to be struck as US stocks continue to rip higher in general. This article was written

Over the weekend we had the official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) China PMIs for June China’s offiical PMIs for June were mixed, disappointing on the whole followed on Monday by the Caixin / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June 2024 51.8 (expected 51.2, prior 51.7) Today we get the Caixin

NASDAQ and S&P indices close at record levelsCrude oil futures settle at $82.81The NY judge has postponed the sentencing of Donald Trump to September 18Biden to give interview to ABC News with first clip to air on FridayBiden’s odds plummet as Demoratic lawmaker calls for Presidential race withdrawalTesla shares digging itself out of the hole,

The New York Times reports that President Joe Biden told an ally that he is weighing whether to continue in the Presidential race. This is the first concrete sign that he’s considering the exit. “President Biden has told a key ally that he knows he may not be able to salvage his candidacy if he

Prior month 0.7%Factory goods orders MoM -0.5% versus 0.2% estimateFactory orders ex transportation MoM -0.7% vs 0.7% last month revised 2+0.5%Durable goods orders +0.1% vs the preliminary 0.1% gain (released six days ago). Prior month 0.2%Durable goods ex- transportation -0.1% vs -0.1% preliminary. Prior month 0.4%Durable goods nondefense capital expenditures/ex air -0.6% vs -0.6% preliminary.

Via oilprice.com: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.7mn barrelsDistillates -1.2mn bblsGasoline -1.3mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are quite different.The official

Prior +0.8%Market index 206.5 vs 212.0 priorPurchase index 142.9 vs 147.8 priorRefinance index 544.1 vs 552.4 prior30-year mortgage rate 7.03% vs 6.93% prior Mortgage applications fell in the past week with both purchases and refinancing activity also declining. It comes as the average rate of the most popular US home loan rises back above the

Global services PMI last month 54.8S&P global services PMI index for June 55.3 vs 51.1S&P global composite PMI index for June 54.8 versus 54.6 preliminaryPrior month composite index 54.5 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

In the kickstart video for July 3, 2024, I take a look at three the major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What is the price action telling traders about the technical bias, the risk, and the targets as the clock ticks toward the early closing stocks and bonds

Today’s stock market overview: Spotlight on healthcare and tech Today’s trading session presents a nuanced landscape, highlighted by disparate sector performances and sizable moves in key tech and healthcare stocks, as observed in the latest stock market heatmap. Let’s dive into the sectors and stocks that have defined the market today. 🔍 Sector Overview Semiconductors:

It’s a lively time in markets and opportunity is everywhere. I’m hosting a 30 minute webinar today the five magic words that I often repeat to myself and others that have saved me from trouble and helped me immensely. I’ll tell some stories and take some questions too. Sign up here. This article was written

Services PMI 53.7 vs. 53.7 expected and 54.2 prior.Composite PMI 51.3 vs. 52.3 prior. Key findings: Growth of activity and new business ease, but are solid overall. Cost pressures abate slightly. Strongest optimism towards the year-ahead outlook since early 2022. Comment: Commenting on the final PMI data, Dr Tariq Kamal Chaudhry, Economist at Hamburg Commercial

Prior month C$-1.32 billion revised from C$-1.05 billion. The deficit has been negative for three consecutive monthsTrade balance for May 2024 C$-1.93 billion versus C$-1.20 billionexports Canadian dollars C$62.45 billion versus C$64.11 billion last monthimports C$64.37 billion versus C$65.43 billion last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are implying a mixed opening after record closes in the S&P and NASDAQ indices yesterday. Both the S&P and NASDAQ are looking to open marginal lower. The Dow Industrial Average averages up by a small margin: Dow industrial average futures are implying a 20 point gainS&P futures are implying a

Fundamental Overview Copper has bounced on a key support recently and extended the gains this week following the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI as the survey hit the highest level since May 2021. In the last few weeks, the bearish momentum indeed appeared to be slowing as the lower lows became shallower. All else being equal,

The US dollar has moved sharply lower after the weaker then expected ISM nonmanufacturing data (lowest level since the pandemic): USDJPY: The USDJPY has moved below its 100 hour moving average at 161.211, and approaches it’s 200 hour moving average at 160.512. The price has not traded below its 100-hour moving average since June 13

The major US stock indices are trading mixed in early trading ahead of the early close at 1 PM. Tomorrow the US stock market will be closed in observance of the Independence Day holiday. The bond market today closes at 2 PM ET and will be closed tomorrow as well: Dow Industrial Average average is

ECBs Vasle is speaking and says: ECB must be mindful of inflation risks and not rush into next rate cut.If inflation falls as projected, then market rate cut expectations are broadly in line with my views Tthe market is expecting wanted to cuts between now and the year end. This article was written by Greg

The most-compelling thing I’ve heard about Joe Biden this week is this: If his debate performance as a one-off, he would be scrambling to do interview after interview, press conference after press conference. Instead, he’s done some scripted rallies, reading from a teleprompter. Yes, he sounded a bit better but the unwillingness to put himself

Another strong month for technology majors propelled US stock indices to all-time highs. The outlook remains positive, supported by inflation approaching the 2% target. Specifically, in May 2024, the nation’s personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index was unchanged from April, while the core PCE index rose by 0.1%. Of course, one swallow does not make

As the North American session begins the GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mixed/little changed with gains vs the JPY and NZD, declines vs the EUR and GBP, and little changed vs the other major currencies. The US will have a data down as different loads economic releases

In the European session, we get the release of the final services PMIs for the major European countries and the UK. The final readings are rarely market moving because the market focuses more on new information. We will also get the Eurozone PPI but that’s a two month old data and remains in negative territory.

An ECB sources report on Reuters is saying: ECB policymakers are urging a review of consequences of QE policiespolicymakers question the commitment to especially forceful or persistent action at the lower boundThe debate is expected be held at the strategy review which is expected to commence soon and and at some point in 2025 This

These are the privately surveyed PMI results from China for June. Caixin PMI Services 51.2 expected 53.4, prior 54.0 Composite 52.8 prior 54.1 The Key points made in the report: Export business growth remains solid despite slowing in line with overall new business Staffing levels fall marginally in June Charges rise only fractionally as input

Closing part of a trade in MT4 isn’t as obvious as it should be. So in this tutorial, I’ll show you exactly how to do it. The process is not hard and once you know how it works, you can take partial profits on your trades at any time. First, let’s take a look at

Headlines: Sterling looks to UK general election as next key risk eventReminder: US markets will be closed tomorrowJapan reportedly to issue new floating-rate bonds to help investors if BOJ hikes ratesFed’s Williams casts doubt over rise in neutral rateEurozone May PPI -0.2% vs -0.1% m/m expectedEurozone June final services PMI 52.8 vs 52.6 prelimUK June

The dollar remains in a decent spot on the week but major currencies are not really doing a whole lot. It is only the Japanese yen that is seen weakening mostly, with USD/JPY keeping at 161.60 levels currently. The pair is up 0.5% on the week thus far and is on course for a fourth

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered between 1.0700 through to 1.0800, with another large one sandwiching that at 1.0750. As such, price action is likely to keep more muted once again with more of the same

Fundamental Overview The USD has been overall rangebound in the last couple of weeks. The last week’s strength might have been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. All else being equal, the data should continue to support the risk sentiment amid a pickup

Southeast Asia is popularly known for its rapidly developing economies. This region can host big financial hubs that play crucial roles in the world’s finance system. These financial centers facilitate international trade, attract investors, and serve as a bridge between Southeast Asia and the global market. This article will explore the top five financial centers

The Japan Ministry of Finance is said to be looking to introduce a new type of floating-rate bond in the market, in order to help investors mitigate the risks from rising bond yields. This comes as Japanese officials are gearing up for more rate hikes by the BOJ. A combination of the BOJ tapering bond

The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling at $82.81. That is down $0.57 or -0.68%. The price moved lower after trading to a two-month high to $84.38 earlier in the day. That was just $0.08 from the April 26 high target at $84.46 (see chart above). On the downside, the 61.8% retracement of

UBS “see gold as an attractive geopolitical hedge and portfolio diversifier, and rate the metal as most preferred.” The comments is from a note that makes three central points. In brief: 1. We continue to see a supportive backdrop for global equities expect … inflation normalizescentral banks embark on an easing cycle 2. We think

First, the non-political bit: A big question for markets right now. If Biden stays on it seems to gift the Presidency to Trump. Most market analysts expect this’ll lead to higher deficits, higher inflation, and a lower US dollar. OK, onto the politics. Axios: A pre-planned meeting of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee (DPCC)Much

Prior 53.2Composite PMI 50.9 vs 50.8 prelimPrior 52.2 Both the services and composite readings are three-month lows, reaffirming a slowdown in the economy towards the end of Q2. Of note, demand for euro area goods and services decreased for first time since February. The good news is that as a whole, price pressures are seen

China’s ruling party will hold its third plenary session of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee on 15-18 July. The focus will be on the reform of the economic system. Expectations for additional stimulus measures remains low though. Key areas of focus include: stimulating domestic demandenhancing the efficiency and quality of economic

Fundamental Overview The USD has been overall rangebound in the last couple of weeks. The last week’s strength might have been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. All else being equal, the data should continue to support the risk sentiment amid a pickup

Prior -1.0% If you strip out energy prices, producer prices were actually up 0.1% in May. Here is the breakdown on the month: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Australia data – Building permits come in better than expected Most of the focus is on the retail sales result, a strong one. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I posted earlier on the line up of European Central Bank speakers: European Central Bank President Lagarde speaks again on Wednesday At 1100 GMT / 0700 US Eastern time Williams participates in “Panel 2: Drivers of Equilibrium Interest Rates” before hybrid European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2024. As head of the NY Fed

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Will have a private lunch with Vice President Harris on Wednesday It’d be great to be a fly on the wall at this. will be meeting in the Roosevelt Room at 6:30pm with Democratic governors. Given all the pressure on Biden to bow out of the Presidential contest this meeting is going to fuel intense

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 56.9Composite PMI 55.8Prior 56.6 The reading is just marginally softer than the 13-month high in May, reaffirming that business activity remains robust in Spain’s services sector. The only downside is that the trend in prices is still strong, so that’s not too comforting on the inflation front. HCOB notes that: “The Spanish services sector

The better data points are here: Australia data – Building permits, May 2024: +5.5% m/m (expected +1.6%)Australia data – Retail Sales May 2024: +0.6% m/m (exp +0.2%) more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The private survey of oil stocks is out, and its a monster draw: Oil: Private survey of inventory shows a much larger headline crude oil draw than expected The official government data is due tomorrow morning out of the US. Oil has been well supported: Analysts at Standard Chartered have a US$90 target, and beyond,

New York Fed President Williams is speaking on WednesdayEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaks again on WednesdaySouth Korea’s PM says the interest rate path to head downwardsUS President Biden will have a private lunch with Vice President Harris on WednesdayChina Caixin June services PMI 51.2 (expected 53.4, prior 54.0)AUD/USD pops a little on better than

As an aside, do be aware that it also means that US markets will close early today as well. All of this makes for another awkward week of sorts with a break in the middle again. That being said, there is the US non-farm payrolls report still to come on Friday. So, it isn’t going

de Guindos at 0800 GMT / 0400 US Eastern time Cippollone at 0900 GMT / 0500 uset Lane at 1030 GMT / 0630 US Eastern time (you’ll notice the NY Fed’s Williams is on the panel with Lane) Knot at 1230 GMT / 0830 US Eastern time Lagarde at 1415 GMT / 1015 US Eastern

Synopsis: SocGen anticipates USD/JPY to continue its upward trajectory, targeting 161.80 initially and 163.75 subsequently. The pair has broken above an ascending triangle pattern, indicating a resumption of the uptrend, supported by strong momentum. Key Points: Technical Breakout: USD/JPY defended the 50-DMA last month and broke above an ascending triangle, confirming an uptrend.Momentum Indicators: Daily

The NY Judge has postponed the sentencing of Donald Trump after his felony conviction on paying hush money until September 18. The ruling comes after the Supreme Court ruled that former Pres. Trump does retain immunity from his time as President. The question is, does that ruling apply to this specific case? The Pres. was

In New Zealand dollar terms, the index lifted 0.3% m/m as the NZD Trade Weighted Index rose 1.4% in June. As part of the report are comments from ANZ on shipping prices: Global shipping prices continued to firm over the month, particularly impacting bulky low-value goods such as logs. Global shipping routes remain subject to

Australian Judo Bank PMI, the final readings for June 2024: Australian final manufacturing PMI for June plunges further into contraction @ 47.2Services 51.2 (prior 52.5)Composite 50.7 (prior 52.1) These are disappointing results. While Services has remained in expansion, holding the Composite in expansion also, allthree are lower than in May. AUD doesn’t usually respond on

Japan June Services PMI 49.4, first contraction for nearly two years flash 49.8, prior 53.8 Composite 49.7 flash was 50.0 prior 52.6 Earlier: Japan final manufacturing PMI for June 50.0 (prior 50.4) Commentary from the report: The Japanese service sector’s recent strong upturn in business activity ended abruptly in JuneBusiness Activity Index fell by 4.4

A super-strong USD is not new news, but the Brazilian Real has been on the receiving end more than most: Fiscal issues and also tensions between the President and the central bank governor have been amongst the factors weighing on the BRL. Short-term rates surging higher have done little to support the currency. Speculation on

The AUDUSD buyers remain in control with the price above the 100/200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Both those MAs come in at 0.6644. The price is currently near 0.6662. Going into the close – and into the new trading day – those MA will be the key barometer for the pair. Staying above

Lloyd Doggett is first Democrat to publicly call for Biden to step down as party’s nominee. “I represent the heart of a congressional district once represented by Lyndon Johnson. Under very different circumstances, he made the painful decision to withdraw. President Biden should do the same. While much of his work has been transformational, he

The major US stock indices are closing higher on the day with both the S&P and NASDAQ index closing a record levels. The Dow Industrial Average would also move higher and closer to it all time record high close at 40003.02. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average average rose 162.33 point or 0.41%

Pres. Biden is to give an interview with ABC News with the first clip airing on Friday. The question is will it be live? Will it be unedited? Will the questions be telegraphed before the interview? The American people and the world want to see live, in the moment. There needs to be more transparency

Euro’s lack of faith highlights risks surrounding French electionsStocks stay pressured in European morning tradeEurozone May unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.4% expectedEurozone June preliminary CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expectedECB’s Vasle: We can cut rates further if things go as expectedFed’s Goolsbee: Interest rates are restrictive nowECB’s Centeno: Every meeting is open for us to

The S&P index extended to a new session high at 5489.60, and in the process extended above the highest closing level at 5487.02 from June 18. The high intraday level was at 5523.64 reached on June 28. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 49.3 Commenting on the latest survey results, Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The performance of the Canadian manufacturing economy remained subdued in June, with output, new orders, employment and purchasing all falling since the previous month. Panellists noted that underlying market demand remained soft, whilst also commenting that

Fundamental Overview The price action in gold continues to be rangebound amid some mixed drivers. The real yields rose recently and that kept a lid on the upside, but there was no signal of inflationary pressures in the economic data and interest rates expectations remained unchanged. There is a compelling narrative emerging since the Trump-Biden

Tesla reported better deliveries today but are still down on the year: Deliveries 444K vs 387K in Q1Deliveries down 5% y/y The numbers today have Tesla shares trading up $18.41 or 8.78% at $228.27. That comes after a gain of 6.08% yesterday. Since the most recent low on June 11 at $167.41 the price has

Reserve Bank of Australia June meeting minutes. Headlines via Reuters: The RBA Board judged the case for holding rates steady stronger than for hikingNeeded to be vigilant to upside risks to inflation, data suggested upside risk for May CPIEconomic uncertainty meant it was difficult to rule in or out future changes in policyRecent data not

US broader indices are moving higher with the NASDAQ index leading the way with a gain of 0.31% at 17934.70. The high price reached earlier today extended up to 17950.82. Recall yesterday the NASDAQ index closed at a record level. At session lows, the NASDAQ index was down -77.06 points Meanwhile the S&P is back

ECB speakers on Tuesday include Schnabel, de Guindos and President LagardeIncreasing speculation of a PBOC RRR cut this month or nextJapan finance minister Suzuki make some yen commentsFederal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on TuesdayRBA – a material rise in inflation expectations could require significantly higher ratesPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at

On Monday the US Supreme Court ruled that former President Donald Trump has some immunity from prosecution in his federal election interference case. More here: This case is the first criminal prosecution in our Nation’s history of a former President for actions taken during his Presidency. The decision is what Biden intends to address in

ECBs Makhlouf is getting in line with many other ECB officials saying: I am comfortable with expectations of another interest rate cut 2 cuts is probably going a little bit too far, but wouldn’t rule it out The market is pricing in 1 to 2 interest-rate cuts before the end of the year This article

Two strategists are out with their projections for FOMC rate cuts in 2024: Lazards strategists Temple still sees three cuts by the end of the yearGoldman Sachs expects the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, followed by quarterly cuts to a terminal rate of 3.25% – 3.5%. Fed’s Powell today passed

Prior month revised to 7.919M from 8.059M previously reportedJOLTs job openings moves higher to 8.140M which is higher than the 7.910M estimate.Vacancy rate 4.9% versus 4.8% last month.Quits rate 2.2% versus 2.2% last month Details of the job openings: Job openings on the last business day of May: 8.1 million (little changed)Year-over-year decrease in job

The US dollar initially rose on the release of the JOLTS data but has since given most of it back. Job openings were at 8.14 million compared to 7.91m expected in May. There were two caveats though: 1) The prior was revised lower. April job openings were trimmed to 7.919m from 8.059m. That April reading

The USDCHF has pushed higher extending modestly the gains seen from yesterday’s trading. That move took the price further into the swing area that was tested yesterday between 0.90449 and 0.90565. If the buyers are to take more control going forward, they need to get and stay above that area. It would then next target

As the North American session begins, the CAD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is mostly stronger – but modestly – with gains vs all the major currencies with the exception of the CAD and GBP (which are virtually unchanged). Overnight, ECB core CPI came in stronger at 2.9% versus

Whole milk powder -4.3%Average price $ 3,782 That’s a hit to New Zealand terms of trade but NZD is unmoved. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are opening lower but off their lows from premarket trading. Dow Industrial Average was is trading down -8.9 points or -0.03% at 39149.60S&P index is down -11.33 points despite -0.21% at 5463.90NASDAQ index is down -55 points or -0.30% at 17827.70 The small-cap Russell 2000’s is reacting to lower rates

ECBs Wunsch is on the newswires and says: The first two breakouts are relatively easyThe markets pricing on rate path is reasonableThe ECB would need convincing to cut more than twice this year.A July cut is an option in theory, but in practice ECB must be cautiousECB won’t solve fiscal problems with the use of

The leaders of the Fed and ECB participate in the policy panel at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra starting at 9:30 am ET. They will be joined by the leader of Brazil’s central bank. No doubt that inflation will be a topic of discussion. CBNC’s Sara Eisen is hosting. This article was

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin suffered a notable correction in June despite a generally positive risk sentiment. Last week, we got a quick drop into a key support zone on the news that Mt. Gox will start distributing assets stolen from clients in a 2014 hack in July 2024 after years of postponed deadlines. Crypto traders have

But we need more data to confirm inflation trajectoryMust be careful not to declare victory too soonLabour market is very important for next stepsLabour market is still tight, causing wage pressure More of the same stuff as the ECB communique today is very much in sync. The gist of it is that they would like

I still think the ‘golden path’ is possibleHigher inflation this year has mostly looked like a blip, or a bump in the roadIf you take a step back, the arc of inflation is clearly downGoods are basically back to pre-pandemic inflation, services are a bit higher ‘but within shooting distance’, the whole puzzle is housing,

Everyone in the economy can decide our reaction function This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has moved lower today after breaking above resistance early in the session and failing (at 1.3743/1.37475). The subsequent fall has taken the price back down to tested 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.37145. At session lows, the price is also testing the 50% of the range since the mid

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.4%German DAX -0.7%UK FTSE 100 -0.6%French CAC -0.3%Italy MIB -0.75%Spain IBEX -1.4% French stocks challenged the June lows today but held and bounced. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview Today’s stock market presents a mixed canvas, particularly emphasizing a tough day for semiconductors contrasted by resilience in other tech entities. Nvidia (NVDA) leads the losses within the semiconductor industry with a significant drop of 2.47%, suggesting investor skepticism or reaction to recent industry news. In contrast, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shows modest

Here’s a snapshot of things currently: Eurostoxx -0.9%Germany DAX -1.1%France CAC 40 -0.7%UK FTSE -0.3%S&P 500 futures -0.4%Nasdaq futures -0.4%Dow futures -0.3% In Europe, French political worries remain a concern and the inflation data here also continues to keep the ECB from feeling too confident in wanting to cut interest rates further. So, that is

Related to this: “Roaring Kitty” sued for Securities Fraud The case has been dismissed. Thats the latest scuttlebutt on the saga. Source here. Some other confirmation would be great if anyone has it. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We want to see more progress on inflationThe latest data shows we’re on a better path on wagesWe would like to see more data like we’ve seeingThe latest PCE at 2.6% shows ‘really significant progress’”We just want to understand that the levels we’re seeing are a true reading on what’s happening in underlying inflation”We have

Some JPY verbal intervention attempts from Japan’s finance minister Suzuki Won’t comment on FX levelsNo change in the government’s stance on FXThe market has been driven by various factors, including sentiment, speculationClosely watching FX moves with vigilance more to come This is mild stuff from Suzuki, but I’ll just point out that the ‘speculation’ word

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Shares of Tesla were lower in the pre-market but rebounded into positive territory on this headline, up 4%. Q2 production 410.8K vs 433.3K in Q1Deliveries 444K vs 387K in Q1Deliveries down 5% y/y There were whisper numbers as low as 423K that got louder after reporting 71K deliveries in China in June. That was down

Fundamental Overview Crude oil extended the gains after breaking above the key $80 resistance as the market eventually caught up to the positive drivers. In fact, we got the OPEC+’s extension of voluntary output cuts, and we’ve been seeing a pickup in economic activity. We have also some major central banks beginning to ease their

New Zealand Building Consents for May 2024 come in at -1.7% m/m the prior revised to -2.1% More here at the report from Stats NZ: Annual number of homes consented down 23 percent Earlier from NZ: New Zealand Q2 business confidence collapses further, to -44% (prior -25%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The initial comments from Fed’s Powell has helped to push yields lower with the 10 year yield now down -6.1 basis points. That has also led to a decline in the US dollar: EURUSD is moved above it swing area between 1.07208 to 1.07346. The price high just reached 1.07462. The 50% of the range

Inflation in Australia is, at best, steady and sticky. But, there are indications that its climbing again; last week’s (admittedly partial) CPI data: 4.1% vs 3.8% prior And, a response: The surprising uptick in inflation, coupled with fiscal stimulus measures and the RBA’s current policy bias, strengthens the case Yesterday was more (partial) inflation data:

In the kickstart video for July 2, 2024, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What is the bias? What are the risk? What are targets? All will be discussed in the above video. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

After a brief attempt to hold a firm break above $2,400 in May, gold has settled down to rest in more of a consolidation range since. The technical writing on the wall was a forming head-and-shoulders pattern. But the current shoulder formation is one that is still playing out a fair bit. So, what’s next

Eurostoxx -0.5%Germany DAX -0.5%France CAC 40 -0.6%UK FTSE -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.9%Italy FTSE MIB -0.5% This comes despite a modest showing in US stocks yesterday, though largely led by tech shares. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% today, so that isn’t helping with the mood. But in Europe, the relief bounce in French stocks is looking

ECB Pres. Lagarde: It will take time to be certain that inflation is on trackstrong labor market means we have time to gather information. Speaking to the economic uncertainties: Soft landing for euro zone economy not guaranteed.We also need to be mindful of the fact that the growth outlook remains uncertain. Speaking to future uncertainties:

The pair opened with a gap higher to start the week, following the first round of French elections over the weekend. Le Pen’s far-right faction won out, as expected, on course for a relative majority at least. That said, there remains much uncertainty surrounding the final outcome. Even if the National Rally party gains a

Today is going to be a more lively day as we get a couple of market moving data and we will hear from Fed Chair Powell in the US session. Overall, the data will likely keep things unchanged on the interest rates expectations front but should further reaffirm the disinflationary trend. 09:00 GMT – Eurozone

Greg had the news from the Governor of the Nationale Bank van België / Banque Nationale de Belgique and hence European Central Bank Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch: ECBs Wunsch: The markets pricing on rate cuts reasonable Wunsch said the first two European Central Bank rate cuts are relatively easy. Plenty of ECB officials have

I posted earlier on Powell speaking at the ECB forum later today: Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on Tuesday In the screenshot below you’ll note plenty of other big wigs on the agenda: de Guindos at 0730 GMT / 0330 US Eastern timeSchnabel at 1030 GMT / 0630 US Eastern timejoined by the chief

The euro might have looked fairly optimistic early yesterday but is getting a reality check today. The first round of the French elections showed a clear win for Le Pen’s far-right faction. Although the margin of victory was a little less than expected, it also reaffirmed a failure on Macron’s government in appeasing the people.

Last week Bloomberg posted some views looking for USD/JPY to 170. Sumitomo says 150 could come if the BoJ intervened, but “in the long term, the yen will continue to weaken toward 170” Mizuho “It’s really tempting fate to say ‘you can’t do 170’,”“Is it desirable? No. Is it ruled out as a possibility? Unfortunately

It’s a busy week on the economic calendar but today is quieter, with only the US job openings report. We get non-farm payrolls on Friday and some other high-tier data this week but job openings have been consistently cited by Fed officials as a reason to maintain a dovish bias. Ahead of that report, we

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar showed much resilience in trading yesterday, despite a softer US ISM manufacturing report here. One of the reasons for that has been the continued climb in bond yields, with 10-year yields in the US rising to 4.49% overnight. It is settling around 4.45% so far today but that is still up 26 bps

Fundamental Overview The USD has been overall rangebound in the last couple of weeks. The last week’s strength might have been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. Nonetheless, all else being equal, the data should continue to support the risk sentiment amid a

There are some expectations about of a People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) cut this month, or in August, to boost long term liquidity and support bond buying. Chinese state media, Securities Daily, cite the chief economist at CITIC Securities, saying that the PBOC may adopt measures such as lowering the reserve

The data earlier from New Zealand: New Zealand Q2 business confidence collapses further, to -44% (prior -25%) KiwiBank note, these the main points: Business confidence deteriorated in the June quarter. High interest rates are weighing on demand, with more businesses seeing a decline in trading activity. Weak-to-miserable growth remains the outlook. The most important read

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of for today. However, just be wary that there are some big ones layered for EUR/USD especially between 1.0700 to 1.0800 during the week. There will also be ones for Friday as outlined here. That is likely to lock price action in the pair until we get

But should not rush in doing soWe can cut more if baseline projections holdMust be patient with further rate cutsThere is a risk of underestimating inflation stickiness More of the same stuff from the ECB today. They are putting out the narrative that they are ready to cut but that will be subject to inflation

British Retail Consortium (BRC) data for June 2024 0.2% m/m vs. 0.6%in Maythe smallest increase since October 2021 Comment from the report: “This will be of help to shoppers as they plan their household budgets for essential goods and services,” said Mike Watson, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, which provides data for

Prior 6.4% The jobless rate in the euro area holds steady at 6.4% and continues to stay thereabouts since last year. So, this isn’t quite a pressing area of concern for the ECB just yet. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.6%Core CPI +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y expectedPrior +2.9% Lane tried to play the report down earlier here. But the details certainly isn’t too encouraging for the ECB. Headline annual inflation eased to 2.5% as expected but core annual inflation remains stubborn at 2.9%, unchanged from May. That owes much to services inflation, which remains

As confidence builds, ECB can look at every meeting in making a decisionThere is confidence that inflation will hit 2% target next yearOur baseline projections have proved to be quite solidWe must be prudent on ratesStill hesitant on growth assessmentMonetary policy must aid with economic recovery As much as they’d like to think so, July

A small deviation from the projections would not change this view dramaticallyThere is probably a premium in waiting for a meeting with new forecasts i.e. SeptemberBut I would not make that a conditionDecision to cut rates one more time is a relatively easy oneBut subsequent moves should only come once inflation is closer towards the

But restrictive rates for too long is a problemThere are some warning signs in the jobs marketWe are putting emphasis on jobs reports and price dataThere has been a string of improved inflation readings in the USIt feels like the path back towards 2%If inflation returns to normal, rates will too The part in bold

Biden is delivering remarks on the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling, I posted a bit of a heads up here: US President Biden is scheduled to speak at 7.45pm US Eastern time Biden: no Kings in Americano one is above the lawdecision means there are virtually no limits on what a president can do and it

Services inflation remains essentialNeed to take a little bit of time to assess inflation Well, it seems like someone got the June report a little earlier than everyone else. In any case, the individual major country readings did not produce much surprises. It should fit with a mild moderation in price pressures, with headline annual

Uncertainty remains highWe have to be very prudentInflation will have its ups and downs this yearEconomy is to be stronger in 2H than it was in 1H He’s not really giving anything away and the remarks echo what his peers have been saying since last month already. This article was written by Justin Low at

That should roughly translate to monthly purchases of around ¥4.65 trillion, down from the current pace of around ¥6 trillion. As for the second year, the survey respondents expect the monthly purchases to fall further to average around ¥3.55 trillion. Putting everything together, that should translate to a reduction of around ¥45 trillion over a

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

US bonds with the sad performance: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 1 Jul; US yields continue to rise w/longer end up the most The Wall Street Journal has a piece up on the higher bond yields. I’ll just add a trigger alert for the politically motivated. The piece needs careful reading. The Journal says yields

New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) quarterly survey of business opinion 44% of firms surveyed expected general business conditions to deteriorate compared with 25% pessimism in the previous quarternet pessimism has been shown in the results of this survey since the third quarter of 2021 High interest rates in NZ continue to dampen demand.

The weekly ANZ / Roy Morgan survey of consumer confidnece tends not to move the Australian dollar upon release, so it pretty much drifts by more or less unmentioned. However, it also includes measure of inflation expectations. And, given the sticky, high nature of Australian inflation, check this out from the ANZ report: Inflation expectations

There is a report that the Democrats are waiting in early nomination for Pres. Biden. That nomination could be as early as July 21. The Trump camp must be “licking its chops” at that prospects of that idea. The Supreme Court ruling today was favorable for former Pres. Trump as it may keep him out

Comments from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams were published on Monday: said he continues to believe price pressures are moderating”I’m confident that we at the Fed are on a path to achieving our 2% inflation goal on a sustained basis,” Williams spoke in a video made on Sunday for a Bank

Powell is speaking at 1330 GMT / 0930 US Eastern time at the ECB forum in Sintra. You’ll note below that European Central Bank President Lagarde is on the same panel with him. There are a number of ECB speakers on the day’s agenda, but I’ll post on them separately. This article was written by

NASDAQ index off to a strong start. Closes at a record level.Former Fed Gov. Clarida: Sees one Fed rate cut in DecemberDemocrats weighing early nomination for Pres. BidenECB Pres. Lagarde: it will take time to be certain that inflation is on trackCrude oil futures and settle at $83.38ECBs Wunsch: The markets pricing on rate cuts

The NASDAQ index is starting the 2H of the year with a solid gain after rising by 18.13% in the first half of 2024. The index is closing near highs for the day up 0.84% and at a new record closing level. Both the Dow industrial average and the S&P also rose to start the

A snippet this morning from ING: The minutes of the June RBA meeting need scrutinizing for any talk of rate hikes. We know they were talked about, the question is, what is the trigger? We are leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting. *** I posted a bit of a preview earlier. Since

Former Fed Gov. and PIMCO global economic advisor Richard Clarida is on CNBC says: Feds stance is dovish despite perceived hawkishness Earliest practical time for rate cut is September.PIMCO’s base case is for one cut this year in December Characterizes the May inflation data as welcome news for the Fed Says that Fed officials need

Inflation data from South Korea. Like the sub heading says, the y/y result is the lowest since July of 2023. The core measure came in at +2.2% y/y. The May data is here for comparison: South Korea May Consumer Price Index This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UBS with a not very uplifting view on the outcome of the French election for investment certainty. In brief: large number of second-round votes could be three-way contestsmakes the final outcome harder to predictits not clear how many third-placed moderate candidates will withdraw to form a “front républicain” to increase the chances of defeating a

The NZDUSD is trading near session lows and in the process is testing its converged 100 and 200-day moving averages near 0.6068. When both the 100 and 200 day moving averages are converged, it represents a key risk/bias defining level for both buyers and sellers. Moving below with momentum and traders will target the 50%

Say the same thing over and over and over and one day you are bound to be right. A note from JP Morgan warns that US stocks are frothy. But that’s what they’ve been saving for a thousand points and more now. Anyway: There is no safety net anymoremarket is positioned longVix is at lows,

Crude oil futures are settling at $83.38. That is up $1.84 or 2.26% on the day. The gain is the largest one day gain since June 10 when the index rose 2.93% and driven by expectations of higher summer demand and concerns over potential supply shortages due to OPEC+ production cuts. Oil prices increased by

The European traders have come and gone, but it isn’t too late to review the day. To start the new week, month, quarter and the 2nd half of the year, the major European indices are closed higher. A snapshot of closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.30%France CAC +1.09%UK FTSE 100 +0.03%Spain’s Ibex, +1.04%Italy’s FTSE MIB

Bank of Japan Tankan for the April to June quarter of 2024. Headlines via Reuters: June big manufacturers index +13 (Reuters poll: 12), this is a 2 year highSeptember big manufacturers index seen at +14 (Reuters poll: 13)June big non-manufacturers index +33 (Reuters poll: 33)September big non-manufacturers index seen at +27 (Reuters poll: 31)June small

Today the main event will be the US ISM Manufacturing PMI but we will get some minor economic releases before that. In fact, in the European session we have the Swiss Retail Sales, the Final S&P Global PMIs and the German inflation readings. These are low tier releases and shouldn’t be market moving. 14:00 GMT/10:00

Prior +0.4% A delay in the release by the source. House prices in the UK continue to hold up but Nationwide argues that activity in the market remains fairly subdued despite that. The firm notes that: “Housing market activity has been broadly flat over the last year, with the total number of transactions down by

Prior month +0.3% versus -0.1% previously reportedConstruction spending -0.1% versus 0.2% expected Total Construction: May 2024 construction spending was $2,139.8 billion, -0.1% below April’s revised $2,142.1 billion.6.4% higher than May 2023’s $2,011.8 billion.First five months of 2024: $836.3 billion, +8.8% above the same period in 2023 ($768.6 billion). Private Construction: Spending was $1,652.1 billion, -0.3%

Prelim was 51.7Prior was 51.3 The ISM survey is due at the top of the hour and the consensus is 49.1, up from 48.7 last month. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The S&P Global PMI survey shows US manufacturers struggling to achieve strong production growth in June, hamstrung by

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 falls to 1.7% from 2.2% previously. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 1.7 percent on July 1, down from 2.2 percent on June 28. After this morning’s releases from the

Goldman Sachs observes another indicator that the US dollar remains robust against its challengers. The broad dollar index has surpassed the October 2023 highs, with recent strength attributed to a lack of Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong US real rate advantages, making the dollar a formidable currency. Key Points: Broad-Based Strength: The broad dollar

It is a new trading week, month and quarter. The EURUSD and GBPUSD are higher (lower USD) as the market reacts to elections in France and prepares for the UK election on Thursday. The USDJPY continues its run to the upside with the pair reaching the highest level since 1986. In the Kickstart video for

The USDCHF is being helped by weaker Swiss retail sales/higher US yields. However the ISM data in the US did come out weaker than expectations with prices and employment components also lower. That combination helped to push price down toward an old floor level (broken earlier today), and the 200 bar moving average on the

One thing I didn’t highlight in my post on bonds is that some input prices are rising, particularly oil. Now cracks have faltered so gasoline hasn’t moved up much but with oil prices up here, they eventually will. Especially with WTI crude oil up $1.30 to $82.83, the highest since April 30. The reasons for

The USDCAD have been able to run higher yesterday helped by higher US rates. The run higher has taken the price above its 100 bar moving out on a 4-hour chart and 50% midpoint of the trading range since mid April near 1.3716, and up toward a swing area and 61.8% retracement of the same

As the NA session begins the GBP is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The UK election is approaching on July 4 with Labour expected to win the majority. An exit poll will be released at 22:00 BST/5 PM EST, with expectations of a strong Labour majority. The outcome is largely priced in,

Introduction: A snapshot of today’s market dynamics Today’s stock market presents a vibrant tapestry of gains and losses across various sectors, as depicted in the latest heatmap analysis. While certain areas like consumer electronics and communication services showcase promising upticks, others such as semiconductors reflect minor dips, shaping a mixed economic narrative for investors and

The AUDUSD traded to the high from last week, and the high of swing area near 0.66896. Sellers lead against that level stalling the rally. The higher US rates today have helped to push the AUDUSD price lower (the USD higher). The move has now pushed the price toward the 200 and 100 bar moving

Roaring Kitty, Keith Gill, has been sued for securities fraud in the US District Court Eastern District of New York Source here: The Complaint alleges that during the Class Period, Defendant engaged in a pump-and-dump scheme, *** I remember when Greg watched the live stream … so we didn’t have to. I am surprised Gill

Prior 46.4 This is the 18th straight month that the Swiss manufacturing sector remains in contraction. Softer readings across the region continue to indicate that a rebound in conditions for Switzerland also remains unlikely. Here is the breakdown for the month: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 51.2 It’s a slight revision lower to the initial reading but still reaffirms a marginal growth in UK’s manufacturing sector. Both output and new orders continued to expand for a second successive month. However, price pressures remain stubborn with input cost inflation rising to a 17-month high. That’s a troubling sign for the BOE.

ECBs Sinkus is on the wires saying: Two more cuts are possible in a 2024 if data is as expectedECB should not limit rate moves to projection meetingsAdds that a case before a July interest rate cut has gone ECBs Lagarde and other members implied after the last decision that July was likely not going

Prior month 48.7Prices paid 52.1 versus 57.0 priorEmployment 49.3 versus 51.1 last monthNew orders 49.3 versus 45.4 last monthProduction 48.5 versus 50.2 last month.Supplier deliveries 49.8 versus 48.9 last monthInventories 45.4 versus 47.9 last month.Backlog of orders 41.7 versus 42.4 last monthNew export orders 48.8 versus 50.6 last monthImports 48.5 versus 51.1 last month The

The other state readings released around the same time: Brandenburg CPI +2.6% vs +2.9% y/y priorHesse CPI +1.8% vs +1.9% y/y priorSaxony CPI +2.8% vs +3.1% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.2% vs +2.5% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +1.9% vs +2.1% y/y prior At the balance, it shows that annual inflation in German states did

If you look at the daily averages, the first four trading days of July are among the best days on the calendar over the past 50 years. The average gain on July 1 is +0.27% and the average on July 3 is +0.31% (a top-ten day on the calendar). There are also moderate historical gains

It’s a strong start of the US dollar today and it has picked up further along with New York trade. The catalyst is the bond market with Treasury yields up 6-10 bps across the curve. Tens are up 9.6 bps to 4.44%, which is the highest since June 11. USD/JPY has tracked that, rising 51

US 10-year Treasury yields are now up 21 basis points from the PCE lows and you have to wonder: What would it look like if Friday’s inflation data had been bad instead of good? Yields are now at a one-month high and rising across the curve; which is helping to boost the US dollar. Why?

French antitrust regulators are preparing to charge Nvidia with anti-competitive practises, according to Reuters. This isn’t wholly a surprise as back in September, France raided the offices of Nvidia. Shares haven’t been hurt since the report and are down 1.3%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD has rotated back to the downside as yields continue to run higher with the 10 year now up 14 basis points. That comes despite weaker ISM data. The US Supreme Court did rule in favor of Donald Trump regarding presidential immunity which makes prosecution for January 6th a hard hurdle. Whether that is

Worse economic contraction than was thought for Japan in Q1 2024. The government has revisited construction orders data and cut the GDP result even further. January – March real GDP annualised -2.9% vs previously revised -1.8%October -December 2023 real GDP revised to annualised +0.1% from previous +0.4%July September 2023 real GDP revised to annualised -4.0%

Bitcoin had a quiet weekend but its jumped higher in the past hours. There are no obvious fresh catalysts. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is just one on the board to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The size of the expiry is a big one so that could keep a floor under the pair in terms of price action for the session ahead. There won’t be much on

US stocks are off to a positive start to start the new week, new month, new quarter, second half of 2024. The gains are led by the Dow Industrial Average average. The NASDAQ is the laggard. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow Industrial Average average up 198.2 points or 0.51% at 39317.08S&P index

Prior 45.4 The reading is more or less the same as the initial estimate, reaffirming a slight setback for Germany’s manufacturing sector at the end of Q2. Weak demand conditions is still the main culprit in all this but at least that is helping to pin down price pressures slightly. HCOB notes that: “Will this

The Swiss franc stuck to its June seasonal pattern here, with USD/CHF posting another decline again last month. The early gains helped to offset the change in narrative from the SNB late on in June, so that changes up the dynamic for the pair coming into July. In FX, it’s hard to make out any

The US dollar dipped on a softer ISM manufacturing index but it has stormed right back. The fuel is coming from the bond market where 10-year Treasury yields are now up 12 bps on the day and more than 20 bps since the post-PCE lows on Friday. USD/JPY is at a fresh 34-year high, up

Happy Canada Day. Canadian markets are closed today as we kick off the second half of the year. US markets are open and the theme so far is Treasury selling. US 10s are up 7.8 bps to 4.42% and USD/JPY is at a session high up 34 pips to 161.17. Flows are always a big

Over the weekend we had the official PMIs Weekend data – China’s offiical PMIs for June were mixed, disappointing on the whole The Caixin / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI out now is the second Manufacturing PMI for June 2024 . Comes in at 51.8, the highest since May of 2021 and the eighth consecutive reading

Prior 61.14k; revised to 60.82kNet consumer credit £1.5 billionPrior £0.7 billion; revised to £0.8 billion Individuals borrowed, on net, £1.2 billion of mortgage debt in May – down from £2.2 billion in April. That sees the annual growth rate for net mortgage lending rising to 0.3% in May, up from 0.2% in April – which

The yen continues to wobble, with USD/JPY bid back above 161.00 as I update. The Tankan wasn’t too bad., The GDP revision was super-ugly. EUR/USD is adding to its earlier gap higher, just a little off 1.0750. Speaking of USD/JPY, check out the FX dealing in this old clip, from around the 1:56 mark. If

Prior +2.4%CPI +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior +0.1%HICP +2.5% vs +2.6% y/y expectedPrior +2.8%HICP +0.2% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior +0.2% Slight delay in the release by the source. This fits with estimates from the state readings earlier here. Core annual inflation is seen easing a touch to 2.9%, after having held at 3.0% in April

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 45 bps (90% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 44 bps (61% probability of no change at the next meeting) BoE: 44 bps (57% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) BoC: 46 bps (58% probability of no change at the next meeting) RBNZ: 36 bps

Says ING: Japanese authorities are allowing USD/JPY to trade above the April FX intervention levelsPrevious comments from the top currency official hint the new line in the sand may be close to 165 Bank of America also nominate 165 as the new level for Japanese authorities to step in. BoA argue that if the Bank

Where we are at: Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party has taken the lead in the first round of France’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, Earlier post on this: First round of French election – “Macron’s centrist alliance suffered staggering losses” EUR/USD has popped: EUR/USD has popped a little higher A higher EUR seems

Over the weekend were the official PMIs from China for June: Weekend data – China’s offiical PMIs for June were mixed, disappointing on the whole Today we get the privately-surveyed Caixin manufacturing PMI. This remained in expansion in May despite the NBS Manufacturing PMI dropping into contraction. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar,

Prior 45.6 The downturn continues in Italy’s manufacturing sector, with it staying in contraction territory for a third straight month. Weaker demand conditions continue to be the bane for most of the euro area at the moment. This led to a decline in production volumes, with the pace of the drop being the quickest in

The final June reading is 47.2, the lowest in 3 months and the fifth month in a row in contraction the preliminary was 47.5May was 49.7 Some of the comments from the report: manufacturing sector’s key activity indicators have softened to the cyclical lows seen earlier in the yearManufacturers are marginally scaling back production through

Domestic sight deposits CHF 443.0 bn vs CHF 443.4 bn prior Swiss sight deposits were little changed in the past week, following a bit of a noticeable drop in the weeks prior. That said, the latest foreign reserves data shows that the SNB switched from FX sales to FX purchases in Q1 having bought foreign

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Headlines: Euro holds higher as France’s far-right sweep first round of electionsUSDJPY Technical Analysis – The bullish bias remains intactBavaria June CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y priorEurozone June final manufacturing PMI 45.8 vs. 45.6 prelimUK June final manufacturing PMI 50.9 vs 51.4 prelimUK May mortgage approvals 59.99k vs 59.90k expectedUK June Nationwide house prices +0.2%

Manufacturing PMI (final) 45.4 vs. 45.3 prelim and 46.4 prior. Key findings: New orders decrease at quicker pace, weighing on production. Accelerated declines seen for purchasing activity and employment. Price pressures intensify, with output charge inflation at 15-month high. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Norman Liebke, Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Not only

Chinese state media reporting comments from Communist Party Chair Xi Jinping: A healthy and stable development of China-Australia relations is in the fundamental and long-term interests of the two countries and peoplesA healthy, stable development of China-Australia relations is also conducive to regional and world peace, stability, development and prosperityWilling to work with Australia to

It’s tough to see this bounce as being any more than a slight relief for now. There were no major surprises to the outcome of the first round of votes in the French elections. And I reckon that’s what markets are responding to mostly, alongside the fact that the worst-case scenario of there being a

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +1.5%Germany DAX +1.3%France CAC 40 +2.6%UK FTSE +0.7%Spain IBEX +1.7%Italy FTSE MIB +2.0% The first round of voting is going more or less expected and perhaps the lack of surprise elements is helping to calm the nerves of investors. That said, there’s still plenty of uncertainty lingering before the second round of votes on

Fundamental Overview The USD started the week on the backfoot as the new month begins. The last week’s strength might have been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. Nonetheless, the data continues to support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth without

Fundamental Overview The USD started the week on the backfoot as the new month begins. The last week’s strength might have been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. Nonetheless, the data should continue to support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth

On Friday we had further encouraging data on inflation from the US: US May core PCE +0.1% vs 0.1% expected HSBS, though, in their most recent ‘global outlook’ note are more circumspect: We still expect the pace of improvement in inflation from here to be only gradual and uneven given the ongoing stickiness in service

Various media outlets are reporting that U.S. military bases in Europe were put on a heightened state of alert over the weekend. CNBC, Fox, ABC are amongst the outlets with the report. Stars and Stripes had this to say: U.S. military bases in Europe were put on a heightened state of alert over the weekendAt

A paper published on Sunday by the Bank for International Settlements. This might make some interesting weekend reading. Or not. Some of the stuff on FX interventions is of interest right now, looking at you Bank of Japan! Monetary policy in the 21st century: lessons learned and challenges ahead Key takeaways Since the turn of

German DAX futures +0.9%French CAC 40 futures +2.3%UK FTSE futures +0.3% This comes after the far-right is seen sweeping the first round of the French elections over the weekend. That said, I wouldn’t get too carried away by the manner of victory just yet. A lot can change in the days ahead and there are

The estimate is for headline annual inflation to come in at 2.3% in Germany for the month of June. While that looks encouraging, the ECB still can’t relax just yet. In May, core annual inflation is still seen at 3.0% and that remains the key spot to watch in all this. The data today won’t

On Monday, the most significant event will be the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing prices for the U.S. On Tuesday, the eurozone will publish the core CPI flash estimate y/y and the CPI flash estimate y/y. Additionally, ECB President Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell will participate in a panel discussion titled

Manufacturing PMI 52.3 vs. 53.0 expected and 54.0 prior. Key findings: Production and new orders rise again, but at slower rates. Weaker growth in employment as confidence softens. Input cost inflation accelerates to highest since November 2022. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Uncertainty following European

Manufacturing PMI (final) 45.8 vs. 45.6 prelim and 47.3 prior. Key findings: HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 45.8 (May: 47.3). 2-month low. HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 46.1 (May: 49.3). 6-month low. Sharper decline in new orders and costs increase, but outlook remains upbeat. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de

Private survey of inflation from the Melbourne Institute Inflation for June 2024 comes in at +0.3% m/m prior +0.3% For the y/y, +3.2% prior 3.1% (lowest in 21 months) — From last week’s CPI from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for May: 4.1% vs 3.8% prior the prospects of another Reserve Bank of Australia interest

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The far-right National Rally party looks set to claim victory in the first round, with the left-wing New Popular Front coalition expected to win about 29% of the votes and Macron’s faction sitting in third with about 20% of the votes. So, what’s next? The euro is sitting higher with EUR/CHF up 0.5% to 0.9675

The euro is the main mover so far today, sitting higher after the first round of the French elections. I detailed more on that here. Besides that, USD/JPY remains in focus too with the pair inching just above 161.00 on the day. As bond yields trace higher, it continues to keep the dollar in a

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates: EUR/USD 1.0725USD/JPY 160.80GBP/USD 1.2638USD/CHF 0.8987USD/CAD 1.3679AUD/USD 0.6677NZD/USD 0.6099 Great to be back – huge thanks to Arno for covering for

1900 GMT / 1500 US Eastern time Introductory speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde at the opening reception of the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 “Monetary policy in an era of transformation” The bigger events at this conference happen on Tuesday. Powell, Schnabel, De Guindos This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Japan Corporate Price Expectations survey is part of the Tankan Firms expect consumer prices to rise 2.4% a year from now vs +2.4% in the previous surveyExpect consumer prices to rise an annual 2.3% three years from now vs +2.2% in the previous surveyFirms expect consumer prices to rise an annual 2.2%

The euro has left a wee gap behind to open the new week: The results of the first round of the election in France are being cited. First round of French election – “Macron’s centrist alliance suffered staggering losses” The takes I’ve seen (apart from the politically biased ones that are best ignored) range across

Jibun S&P Global June 2024 Manufacturing PMI comes in at 50.0 prior 50.4preliminary was 50.1 From the commentary to the report: “Notably, the latest PMI data revealed the first rise in Japanese factory production for over a year, and a rebound in business confidence. Although employment continued to be impacted by retirements, there was another

China’s Xi says willing to work with AustraliaEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaking MondayBitcoin back above US$63500China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June 2024 51.8 (expected 51.2, prior 51.7)Australian private survey of inflation, June 2024: +0.3% m/m (prior +0.3%)“Roaring Kitty” sued for Securities FraudPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1265 (vs. estimate at

I’m sure you’ll find this plastered all over the place, but ICYMI, the first round of the election in France has seen gains for the far-roght party led by Marine Le Pen. Politico have a good summary: According to early estimates by pollsters Ipsos, the far-right National Rally is on course to win 34 percent

Via Nikkei today (gtaed): Chinese national security authorities will have greater power to inspect smartphones and other electronic devices beginning MondayThe new powers are part of stronger anti-espionage laws that took effect,. The power of inspection extends to the phones of foreigners in the country. The new espionage law broadens the information covered to anything

China’s manufacturing PMI contracted for a second consecutive month in June. The non-manufacturing PMI expanded, but a slower pace than in May. The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing activities, dropped from 51 in May to 50.5 in June Chinese PMIs come from the National Bureau of Statistics. These are not going to

The launch is towards the East Sea (AKA Sea of Japan). North Korea has been very busy developing missile tech and nukes. The country got a big boost during the previous US administration and has made the most of it. Back in the day a show of aggression like this from NK would tend to

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Swiss Retail Sales, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, Eurozone CPI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US Job Openings, Fed Chair Powell.Wednesday: Australia Retail Sales, China Caixin Services PMI, Swiss Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone PPI, US ADP, US Jobless Claims, US ISM Services PMI, FOMC Meeting Minutes.Thursday:

Week Ahead 1st-5th July: Sun: French Parliamentary ElectionMon: Canada Day; Japanese Tankan (Q2), Japanese, Chinese Caixin, EZ, UK & US Manufacturing Final PMI (June), German Prelim. CPI (June), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)Tue: RBA Minutes (June), Australian & Canadian Manufacturing PMI Final (June), EZ Flash CPI (June), Unemployment Rate (May), US JOLTS Job Openings (May)Wed:

MUFG discusses the potential impact of the French elections and the June NFP print on EUR/USD. The focus is on the risk premium already priced into EUR/USD and how the election results could influence further movements. Key Points: Current Situation: Stabilization: EUR/USD has stabilized around the 1.0700 level after initially dropping by two big figures

Biden tweets: Folks, I might not walk as easily or talk as smoothly as I used to. I might not debate as well as I used to. But what I do know is how to tell the truth. He said something along the same lines at a campaign stop in North Carolina. I don’t put

Closing changes: S&P 500 down 0.4%Nasdaq down 0.7%Russell 2000 +0.1%DJIA -0.1%Toronto TSX Comp -0.5% The S&P 500 closed the half-year up a tidy 14% but today’s reversal from an all-time high is somewhat ominous. However against that backdrop note that the first three trading days of July are traditionally three of the strongest ones of

When I look at the July seasonals, there isn’t much in the FX market. The patterns are minor and the moves small as the summer complacency sets in. One thing stands out though: US equities. The S&P 500 has climbed for eight straight years in July with an average gain of more than 3%. Stretching

US May core PCE +0.1% vs 0.1% expectedUMich June final consumer sentiment 68.2 vs 65.6 prelimCanada April GDP M/M 0.3% vs. 0.3% expectedJoe Biden says he isn’t going anywhereDallas Fed May PCE price index +1.4% m/m annualized vs +2.7% priorFed’s Daly: The PCE data is ‘good news’ but the Fed is not done yetFed’s Bowman:

The future isn’t a mystery. Generative AI is coming for almost everything. Why? Machines will soon be able to see and hear in real time and interact with the world. That will unlock robotics. That’s why Elon Musk is pivoting Tesla to a robotics company. He sees the writing on the wall and realizes that

There were some larger individual movers, including a 2.2% drop in Nvidia shares and a 7% decline in Micron but that was balanced by a 2% rise in Amazon and a 3.5% rise in Adobe. Financials were modestly lower after the bank stress tests. On net, the moves were small but keep a three-day winning

Headlines: Major currencies move back to little changed on the dayJapan chief Cabinet secretary says closely watching FX movesLatest poll sees Le Pen’s faction winning 37% of votes in first round of French electionWhat are the main events for today?ECB’s Villeroy: Disinflation process is on trackFed’s Barkin: Policy tightening will eventually slow the economy furtherFed’s

According to NBS the US is preparing to evacuate Americans from Lebanon should the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel intensify. The increased military activity and the rhetoric suggest a risk of escalation, potentially opening up another front. The Pentagon is repositioning U.S. military assets closer to Israel and Lebanon.USS Wasp and Marines from the 24th

Prelim was 65.6Prior was 67.4Current conditions 65.9 vs 62.5 prelim (68.8 prior)Expectations 69.6 vs 67.6 prelim (66.5 prior)1-year inflation 3.0% vs 3.3% prelim5-year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% prelim The stock market is at the highs of the day on this in part due to the drop in these inflation expectations number, which are closing in

Oil -6 to 478Gas -1 to 97Total 581 US production is much higher than 2021/22 because of much longer laterals an efficiency but there is a limit and this argues that production could slump by year end. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Well, the Biden-Trump debate has come and gone and it was rather uninspiring to say the least. Amid Biden’s incoherent responses and Trump’s falsehoods, it is another reminder of the sad reality that these are two best presidential candidates set to lead the US. It’s definitely a question to the world, how did we end

The US National Hurricane Center now sees a 100% chance of a tropical depression forming in the next 48 horus in the central Atlantic. Three storms are in the mix with one expect to cross the Yucatan peninsula on the weekend. The others should head in a westerly direction, aimed just south of Haiti, which

The S&P 500 touched a fresh all-time high today at 5523 (and counting). That marks the 32nd day with the index hitting a record high in the first half of the year. Today, Deutsche Bank compares the number of ATHs this year compared to historical norms. In short, it’s been one of the best years

It’s taking longer for policy to work, but it’s workingI’m looking at scenarios, we will react. It’s too early to tell what we will doInflation data shows it’s cooling, policy is working as expectedAnticipate generative AI will boost productivity, but it’s too early to speculate on”I think we’ll continue to see inflation printing above 2%,

The Dallas and Cleveland PCE remix data illustrates why Fed officials and markets are feeling better about the pricing picture. One month annualized trimmed mean 1.4% vs 2.7% prior (lowest this year)Six month annualized 3.0% vs 3.1% prior12-month 2.8% vs 2.9% prior Digging through the numbers, some drivers of inflation: Prescription drugsTobaccoSpectator sportsHospitalsUsed trucks Some

Japan’s Ministry of Finance appoints Atsushi Mimura as top currency diplomat, replacing Masato Kanda – Nikkei.Japan’s Ministry of Finance appoints Hirotsugu Shinkawa as Vice-Minister of Finance, replacing Eiji Chatani – Nikkei. The USDJPY saw some marginal downside after the news. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.