Uncategorized

Prior CHF 4.32 billion; revised to CHF 4.34 billion The Swiss trade surplus expanded in May as exports grew by 0.6% while imports fell by 6.5% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

A piece in Dow Jones / Markt Watch (gated). “Froth forecasts” compiled by State Street Associates (based on research by Harvard University professor Robin Greenwood): probability of a 40% decline at some point over the next two years — the operational definition of a crash that they use — is calculated to be 18%, lower

Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl has outlined plans aimed at improving returns on its foreign-currency reserves. Over the next five years he plans to: boost the share of equity holdings in reserves to 30%boost gold holdings from currently around 40 metric tones to 100 Says the bank won’t try to time the market in

New Zealand economic growth (or contraction) data is due at 2245 GMT (1745 US Eastern time). New Zealand is already in recession (consecutive quarters of economic contraction), a negative today would extend it. New Zealand inflation is 4% y/y way above target. The RBNZ has held rates at 5.5% at seven consecutive meetings and another

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee is meeting on Thursday, 20 June 2024. Times below are GMT, the BoE announcement is due at 1100 GMT, which is 0700 US Eastern time (as a ps. the SNB decision is due at at 0730 GMT / 0330 US Eastern time). This snapshot from the ForexLive economic

BOC Minutes: Governing Council considered waiting until July to cut ratesUS June NAHB housing market index 43 vs 45 priorCanada’s population continues to surge as it hits 41 millionECB’s Centeno: ECB will cut if disinflation process continuesCanada May Teranet house price index +0.5% m/mUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 14 June +0.9% vs +15.6% prior Markets:

I posted earlier in the week a useful piece from analysts at HSBC tipping the People’s Bank of China would allow the USD/CNY reference rate to rise: HSBC expect the USD/CNY reference rate to drift higher (yuan weaker) This indeed looks to have been the case so far, with the PBOC easing back on the

The pound is flat today at 1.2715 in part because the US is on holiday but there was some minor selling earlier after a softer UK CPI print. Inflation was up 0.3% m/m compared to 0.4% expected but it was deeper within the report there was trouble as services inflation was hotter than anticipated. Deutche

The Hong Kong exchange has, for decades, halted trade during severe weather conditions, such as typhoons. Currently, trading on the exchange is halted if the Hong Kong Observatory posts a typhoon signal no. 8 and above. In a move to preserve its status as a financial hub, and compete with Shanghai and Shenzen, Hong Kong

Reminder – PBOC monetary policy interest rate decision due Wednesday evening, US timeJapan’s Ministry of Finance proposes selling shorter term debt as the BOJ eyes rate hikeChina’s FX regulator says Will prevent yuan exchange rate from overshooting,Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi giving assurances over troubled Norinchukin BankPBOC Governor says monetary policy will provide support for

The number of foreign visitors for business and leisure was seen at 3.04 million last month. That is little changed from April and just down slightly from the all-time record in March. Compared to May 2019 i.e. the same month before the pandemic, arrivals into Japan were 9.6% higher this year. If anything, the weaker

Members recognized chance of inflation stalling but there was a consensus that indicators showed enough progress to warrant a cutMembers agreed that future easing would likely be gradual, timing would depend on data Agreed to emphasize in communications that decisions would be taken one meeting at a timeSome members were more focused on downside risks

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.4%UK FTSE 100 +0.1%French CAC -0.8%Italy MIB -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.2% The latest poll forecasts the UK Conservative leader Rishi Sunak will lose his own seat in the July 4 election. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prices up 0.5% seasonally adjustedPrices up 1.7% non-seasonally adjustedPrices up 5.7% y/yPrices are 2.04% from the May 2022 peak Leading cities y/y: Calgary 16.4%Halifax 11.4%Vancouver 8.7%Toronto +2.8% The early indications from the Bank of Canada rate cut were a bit of a surprise as it sparked a jump in listings rather than a jump in

Canadians are quickly turning against immigration as the country’s population continues to swell at a breakneck pace. The population surpassed 41 million for the first time on April 1, according to Statistics Canada. That’s after the country added 242,673 people during the first quarter. The quarterly population growth of 0.6% has been consistent over the

Prior was 45Current sales 48 vs 51 priorSix month sales 47 vs 51 prior This is the lowest reading since December. It’s the second consecutive miss in a quick fall from 51 in April. The latest retail sales data also showed poor metrics on building materials and furniture, which are proxies for housing turnover. Here

Rates will fall if inflation helps us, which it is doing ‘If we look at the monetary policy cycle as it stands today, and what we know today about inflation and the trajectory of interest rates, we can anticipate that this cycle of negative results [for the Banco de Portugal] will continue for at least

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway speech on inflation. He’ll be following up with more at 5.30pm New Zealand time (0530 GMT, 0130 US Eastern time). From his speech: Inflation may be more sticky in the near termBut inflation could fall more quickly in the medium term, there is spare capacity

The Bank of Canada kicked off a rate-cutting cycle this month and now the question is: How quickly will the cuts continue? Governor Tiff Macklem said they are taking decisions one meeting at a time and that it’s reasonable to expect more rate cuts if inflation continues to ease. Later today we get the minutes

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

NVDA price forecast for traders and investors at ForexLive.com Predicting where a stock might rest after a significant rally, especially when it’s creating new all-time highs (ATH) almost weekly, presents a unique challenge in technical analysis. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) is currently in such a phase, with its price action tightly confined within a strong bull

Fundamental Overview Copper has been rallying like crazy in the first part of the year amid a pickup in global growth, Chinese stimulus measures and concerns over tightness in global mine supply. Unfortunately, as it’s often the case, the rally attracted the momentum players, the price got overstretched and we got a big correction to

Prior +15.6%Market index 210.4 vs 208.5 priorPurchase index 146.0 vs 143.7 priorRefinance index 552.7 vs 554.7 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.94% vs 7.02% prior Mortgage applications nudged a little higher in the past week, helped by a further jump in purchase activity. That is offset by a decline in refinancing activity, following the surge higher in

North Korea fully supports Russia’s military operation in UkraineRussia plays important role in maintaining strategic balance Meanwhile, Putin says that he hopes the next time the two meet again will be in Moscow. With the G7 recently having kept much of their focus on China, the partnership between Russia and North Korea continues to deepen.

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

The string continues for the Nasdaq. The index has closed higher for 7 consecutive days with each day closing at record levels. Today’s close was by the a whisker, but it was still a positive day. The first high close was at 17192.53 back on June 10th. Today the index closed at 17862.23. That is

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged yesterday, as widely expected: RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedRBA’s Bullock: We did not consider the case for a rate cut todayRBA’s Bullock: We need a lot to go our way to bring inflation back to range Via Westpac, a recap, in

French President Emmanuel Macron called an election back on Sunday June 9. Adam on the call: Macron’s gamble is looking like a disaster as new poll released Leader of the far-right National Rally Marine Le Pen has offered an olive branch: says she won’t seek Macron’s resignation if far right wins snap election Le Pen

Headlines: UK May CPI +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y expectedHow has the BOE rates pricing changed after the inflation data today?Eurozone April current account balance €38.6 billion vs €35.8 billion priorJapan’s tourism sector continues to flourish going into the summerGerman economy minister says relationship with China has become more complexNorth Korea and Russia are entering a

Credit Agricole has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, now projecting the first cut to occur in September instead of July. This adjustment maintains the overall forecast of 50 basis points of cuts by the end of the year, with a skip in November and another cut in December. Key Points: Revised

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures flat European equities continue to try and put last week’s poor showing behind them so far this week. The slight gains slated for the open here continues the modest bounce on the week, helped by gains in Wall Street yesterday. Political woes may have ebbed but they will continue

US May advance retail sales +0.1% vs +0.3% expectedFed’s Musalem: Confidence to cut rates could take months and likely quarters to play outFed’s Goolsbee: Latest inflation number was ‘excellent’ hopefully more to comeFed’s Kugler: Policy has more work to do, judgement will be guided by dataFed’s Kugler: We have two-sided risks, we continue to pay

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

Settle in for a quiet one today with the US off on holiday. Europe doesn’t appear to be inspired today either, though we do get the Bank of Canada minutes at 1:30 pm ET. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Today is the Juneteenth holiday in the US and the US markets will be closed. The only notable event was the UK CPI report where the data showed some more progress but nothing gamechanging for the BoE. There’s not much else scheduled for today other than the US NAHB Housing Market Index and the BoC

The TL;DR on this post is that there is no rate change expected from the People’s Bank of China. On Monday the Bank set the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) unchanged: People’s Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%) The MLF rate sets the scene for the monthly Loan Prime Rate

Let’s just take a quick check of things based on the current pricing: August – 25 bps rate cut: ~32% (previously ~46%)September – 25 bps rate cut: ~80% (previously ~88%)Total rate cuts for remainder of 2024: ~44 bps (previously ~48 bps) The odds of a sooner rate cut have gone down a little despite UK

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng is speaking at the 2024 Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai” Monetary policy is supportiveMonetary policy will provide financial support for China’s economic recoveryThe weakening momentum of the USD’s rise is a benefit to the yuanWants to strengthen counter- and cross-cyclical policy adjustmentPBOC aims to maintain stability in policyWill prevent

I posted info on this yesterday as a heads up, doing so again. U.S. markets will be closed Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) is recommending the US Bond market close that day. So it is. FX desks will be closed, perhaps

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE -0.2%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB flat This takes away from the slight gains just about an hour ago. It’s going to be a bit more of a quiet one in trading today. That considering US markets are closed in observance of the Juneteenth holiday. This article was

I wasn’t expecting wild swings, but sheesh. Nothing! Link is here ICYMI: BOJ April Minutes show some concern about the weak yen on inflation & wages The hourly USD/JPY chart is looking like its getting ready to pop above 158.30. I stuck some lines on it but I’m sure tech analysts out here can do

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

Prior +2.3%Core CPI +3.5% vs +3.5% y/y expectedPrior +3.9% The readings are in line with estimates, with the monthly figures showing a 0.3% increase in headline inflation and 0.5% increase in core inflation. Despite the headline reading touching the crucial 2% mark, core annual inflation remains high at 3.5%. And the more worrying detail is

Prior €35.8 billion The details show surpluses were recorded for goods (€38 billion), services (€11 billion) and primary income (€2 billion). And these were offset by a deficit for secondary income (€12 billion). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

China is an important partner in all fieldsBut relationship has now become more complexWe do not want to separate from ChinaBut being too dependent on one country is a problem Considering the current fragile state of Germany’s manufacturing sector, it’s not the best time to strain relations with China. That said, China could also do

A draft proposal reviewed by Reuters: Japan must create an environment where government bonds remain an attractive investment for financial institutions, such as by issuing shorter-duration debt, a finance ministry panel is likely to saythe Bank of Japan’s exit in March from its radical stimulus is prodding the government to prepare for an era of

After a bit of a tussle so far in June trading, USD/CHF finally fell below a key support threshold yesterday. The 200-day moving average (blue line) has given way, alongside the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing higher this year. It’s a notable breakdown for the pair, as the downside momentum continues to build

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip against the Yen following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) in the regulator: Will strengthen countercyclical supervision, improve the solvency, deposit reserve mechanismsStudying broadening the scope of foreign shareholders in non-bank institutionsChina’s forex market operation is resilientChina’s forex market faces increasing adjustmentChina’s forex market has condition for steady operation in futureChina’s forex market remains reasonable and orderlyWill pay

Crude oil futures settled at $80.71. That is a $0.99 or 1.24%. That is the highest level since April 30. Looking at the daily chart, the price is also closing back above its 100 and 200-day moving averages at $79.51 and $79.63 respectively. The price is also closing above its 50% midpoint of the move

Results via oilprice.com on twix: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -2.2 mn barrelsDistillates +0.3 mn bblsGasoline +0.6 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The

As was widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged yesterday: RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedRBA’s Bullock: We did not consider the case for a rate cut todayRBA’s Bullock: We need a lot to go our way to bring inflation back to range I posted earlier from

There are just two to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0745 level. That is likely to help keep price action in the pair more muted, sticking closer to the expiries before rolling off later. Then, there is the one for USD/CAD at

The monthly Reuters Tankan survey, a guide to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey. For June 2024: Manufacturers index is +6, from +9 in Maypositive for the fourth consecutive monthJapanese manufacturers say their drop in confidence is due to higher materials costs.Non – manufacturers +31, from +26 in Maythree month high Outlooks: Manufacturers seen

The World Gold Council surveys central banks each year on attitudes around gold and currency reserves. This year, 29% said they plan to increase holdings in the year ahead. That’s the highest since the survey began in 2018. I think that’s even better than it looks because gold prices appreciated in the past year by

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi financial health of Norinchukin Bank is sufficient Reports are that the Japanese banking giant Norinchukin Bank is to sell USD 63bln of US and European sovereign bonds during the current fiscal year. Doing so to make up for unrealised losses. will dispose of the foreign bonds gradually during the fiscal

With hindsight the April meeting was a bit of a placeholder between the rate hike (the first in 17 years) at the March meeting: Highlights of the Bank of Japan rate decision on April 26, 2024 and the meeting last week where the Bank flagged a reduction in JGB purchases to come: BOJ governor Ueda

A major police incident has unfolded on Collins Street in Melbourne’s CBD people reporting they were told to stay inside their office buildings Police, including the bomb squad, were called to attend firearm found at the scene, not yet confirmed if it is a real one or an imitation UPDATE – area declared safe now.

Sees 2024 fiscal deficit at $1.915 trillionFY 2025-34 deficit seen at $22.083 trillion, up 10% from Feb forecast2024 real GDP seen up 2.0% vs 1.5% in Feb2025 GDP seen at 2.0% vs 2.2% in FebSees 2024-34 avg GDP growth at 1.8%2024 deficit higher due to outlays on student loans, bank resolutions, Ukraine/Israel aid and MedicaidLegislation,

Major currencies are looking rather muted and understandably so. Today will be more of a placeholder trading day with it being a US holiday. That makes for kind of a weird week as we have a bit of a recess in the middle. The dollar is keeping more mixed overall on the week while risk

Goolsbee is participating in a panel. More to come This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Exports to: China +17.8% y/ythe US +23.9% y/ythe EU -10.1% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The minutes from the Bank of Japan today are for the April meeting. The April meeting followed the March meeting. It was at the March meeting that the BoJ raised its rate for the first time in 17 years. April was more low-key. From this meeting day: Highlights of the Bank of Japan rate decision

Earlier from Conway: RBNZ’s Conway: Inflation may be more sticky in the near term More: Inflation will slow down, helped by excess capacityNZ not experiencing stagflationwelcomes the recent fall in expectations for inflation headline inflation to drop to target band by year-end This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The data release has barely moved NZD/USD, circa 0.6144 The current account represents the most comprehensive gauge of a nation’s international financial interactions. It encapsulates not just the exchange of goods and services, but also earnings from foreign investments and payments made on investments from abroad within NZ. In addition, it covers transfers like overseas

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Collins spoke on Tuesday: Fed’s Collins cautions against over-reacting to recent inflation data Read that post, sound advice from Collins. More now: its going to take some time for inflation to come downeconomic data points to an economy coming into better balanceCollins says she can see scenarios for both one and two cuts in 2024

How much we cut will be a question we continue to assess as more data comes inIt’s not an answer we can give todayIt depends on whether it is from disinflation or rapid deterioration of the labor marketRemains concerned about housing. Import and wages are still higher than productivityHave to see that continued progress on

The best traders anticipate the next trade. In this video I take a look at the GBPJPY and the EURJPY from a technical perspective and pick out the key level that will define the bullish/bearish barometer heading into the new trading day and explain why the levels are important. The level will either keep the

The Canadian jobs market will face cyclical pressures in the coming months that will lower inflation and lead to rate cuts but in the years ahead, the economy could struggle to keep wage inflation in check. Right now, just 22% of firms report labour shortages in the Bank of Canada’s latest Business Outlook Survey; that’s

German DAX futures +0.6%UK FTSE futures +0.5% The gains here owes to the surging run higher by US stocks overnight. But for European equities itself, the overall mood is much steadier as compared to last week as political woes have ebbed slightly as well. US futures are more muted though, keeping flattish on the day.

Bloomberg with the article titles: Trading Indicator With 100% Win Rate Signals Sell Long Bonds Now Sheesh, …. The Bloomberg piece is gated but if you can access it here is the link: Trading Indicator With 100% Win Rate Signals Sell Long Bonds Now If you can’t access it, here is the gist: A technical

ECBs Villeroy is on the wires saying: We owe our citizens respect, that means not running bigger deficits that can’t be financedThat also means quickly clarifying our countries economic and budget strategy. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Would you believe it, the plucky chipmaker that doesn’t even make its own chips is now the world’s most-valuable company. Shares are up another 3.3% today and have been on a non-stop run since the release of ChatGPT. However it becoming more valuable than any other company is one of those things that should make

Preponderance of labor market data shows it coming into balanceMon pol is ‘sufficiently restrictive’, economic conditions moving in the right directionIf wage growth continues to moderate, will soon be at levels consistent with price stabilityMost indicators point to a slow, steady easing of labor marketWatching closely for signs of labor market deteriorationI expect some cooling

May CPI data was welcome newsGreat to see CPI data but will need to see several more months to have confidence inflation heading to 2%Will be watching data in coming months quite closelyIn a good position to be patient on policyWill be watching and seeing what’s happening in the economy If you take this at

The NZDUSD experienced a decline during the Asian session, moving down to retest and briefly dip below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Additionally, the price fell below last week’s lows (see the red and green lines at 0.61029). However, after these failed breaks, the price rebounded and surged higher during the US

The USDCAD has exhibited fluctuating trading patterns this week, continuing a trend seen since April. Since then, the pair has mostly oscillated between 1.3600 and 1.3800, with frequent ups and downs. This week mirrors that pattern, with the price moving lower today and approaching the 100 and 200 bar moving averages (MAs) on the 4-hour

Oracle stock got an intensive boost after the software company released its financial report for the fourth quarter of 2023. Interestingly, the Q4 results were worse than expected. Let’s explore what impressed market participants and why Oracle shares are trending this year. First, let’s examine the chart. It shows a massive spike after Oracle’s earnings

Too soon to say if inflation is retreating to 2%Appropriate for US central bank to remain patient on mon polRemains ‘realistic optimist’ on economy and mon polRecent inflation data has been encouragingEconomy has been remarkably resilientRestoring price stability may take more time than thoughtInflation is still stubbornly above target This isn’t dovish. We’re still a

After mixed data with weaker retail sales and a stronger industrial production/capacity utilization, the US major indices are opening marginally higher. Yesterday both the S&P and NASDAQ index closed at record levels. A snapshot of market six minutes into the open currently shows: Dow Industrial Average average up 71.21 points or 0.18% at 38849.32S&P index

Federal Reserve speakers today include Barkin, Collins, Kugler, Musalem, Logan, GoolsbeeUS data focus for Tuesday – May retail sales – the range of expectations to watchBank Japan Gov Ueda: Must be vigilant to impact of weak yen, import price moves on economyECB Vice President Luis de Guindos is speaking on TuesdayNZD traders heads up –

He needs to observe a period of favorable inflation, moderating demand and expanding supply before he will have confidence for a rate cutThe conditions could take months, or more-likely quarters to play outIf inflation becomes stuck meaningfully above 2% or moves higher, he would support additional tighteningSays he will remain vigilant until inflation is clearly

High yield: 4.452%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.480%Tail -2.8 basis points vs six month average of 0.1 basis pointsBid to cover: 2.74X versus a six month average of 2.6XDirects 16.35% vs six-month average of 18.9%Indirects 77.89% versus six-month average of 67.8%Dealers 5.77% vs six at average of 13.3% Auction Grade: A The

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $13 billion of 20 year bonds at 1 PM ET. The six-month averages of the major components will be compared to the actual results to determine success or failure of the auction: Tail: 0.1 basis pointsBid to cover: 2.60XDirects (a measure of domestic demand): 18.9%Indirects (a measure of international

Prior month 0.0% (revised to -0.2%) Details: Retail sales for May +0.1% vs +0.3% expectedEx-auto MoM -0.1% vs +0.2% expected. Prior month +0.2% (revised to +0.1%)Control group +0.4% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month -0.3% (revised to -0.5%)Ex auto and gas +0.1% vs. -0.1% prior (revised to -0.3%)Total nominal sales for the March 2024 through May

This will be an unusual US trading week with a holiday sandwiched in the middle on Wednesday. Before that, we get the data highlight of the week with the May US retail sales report. The consensus is for a 0.2% rise following a flat number in May. The question on my mind is if we’re

The US dollar has made a nice comeback today, despite the softer retail sales data. The latest round of bids came ahead of the London fix, so that could have been a driver, especially with a US holiday tomorrow. That said, the bids came early for a fixing trade and the rally in oil prices

Before the May retail sales report, I wrote about how the metric I would be watching most-closely wasn’t the control group, but the market. We’ve been a bad-news-is-good-news regime for the past 18 months but evidence has been mounting that the market is beginning to see the Fed as behind the curve. That will ignite

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 2Q growth remain unchanged at 3.1%. IN their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on June 18, unchanged from June 7 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Department of

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: Depending on economic, price and financial data and information available at the time, there is chance we could raise interest rates at July meeting Decision on BOJ’s bond tapering and short-term rate target are two different things Earlier from Ueda: Bank of Japan Gov Ueda expects strengthening in Japan wage-price

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speaking from parliament expects strengthening in Japan wage-price cycle – underlying inflation to gradually acceleratesees Japan’s economy recovering moderatelymonitoring the FX impact on economy and inflationdata out since April roughly in line with BoJ estimates We need to scrutinise data a bit more to judge whether underlying inflation will heighten

Prior was +1.7%Whole milk powder -2.5% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.1%Inventories ex-autos +0.3% This is rarely a market mover but it’s an important number in GDP calculations. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar is at the lows of the day as the selling accelerates following a softer retail sales report. I want to highlight what the bond market is now saying about inflation, with 5-year breakevens now at 2.16%. That is despite oil prices trading at a six-week high at $80.70. The bond market is

It’s hard to know how much signal to take from inflation last year, or this quarter, or last couple of weeksI didn’t quite get more confidence in Q1 this year about inflation, we’ll see where we goOn the goods side, I hear pricing power is waningThis month’s inflation reading was very encouragingLabor market is also

The AUDUSD sellers made a play to the get outside of a swing area on the downside at 0.6575. The low price reached 0.6584. that low was also just above the 38.2% retracement of the move up from April at 0.6579. Buyers leaned against the low area. The price has rebounded higher over the last

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Headlines: RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedRBA’s Bullock: We did not consider the case for a rate cut todayRBA’s Bullock: We need a lot to go our way to bring inflation back to rangeECB’s de Guindos: Best time to make rate decisions is together with updated projectionsGold stays in consolidative mode but

Japan finance minister Suzuki: Ministry of finance will continue debt management through dialogue with marketsInterest rates are set by markets reflecting JGB demand and various aspectsDecline to comment on Bank of Japan’s decision last week on planned reduction of JGB purchases Ueda is speaking at the same time: Bank of Japan Gov Ueda expects strengthening

Another day, another record: US stocks start soft and then surgePreview: What to watch for in the May US retail sales reportWTI crude oil rises back above $80 in a $2 climbPowell to deliver Humphrey Hawkins testimony on July 9WSJ Timiraos: See’s core PCE falling to 2.6% from 2.8% lastFed’s Harker: I think one cut

After the previous attempt to get above 158.00 stalled on Friday last week, dip buyers are showing up once again to test the figure level today. The slight bounce in bond yields this week is helping with that at least. But traders are not really showing much respect to BOJ governor Ueda’s remarks earlier in

Fundamental Overview We had some good news last week when both the CPI and the PPI came in on the soft side. This should help the stock market in the bigger picture since it will give the Fed more confidence to begin decreasing rates in the latter part of the year. The FOMC decision last

Adam posted the latest from Kalanovic. I don’t know why he bothered, the bearish view never changes: US stocks keep climbing higher but J.P. Morgan’s Kolanovic is having none of it Meanwhile, the people tasked with actual risk taking at JPM are having none of him: While we had thought the market was setting up

1330 GMT / 0930 US Eastern time: Speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos at a joint conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank on European Financial Integration in Frankfurt, Germany This doesn’t sound like it’ll have much, if anything, on the economy or policy. You never know I guess. This

The AUDUSD has been fluctuating mostly between 0.6575 and 0.66896 over the past 6-7 weeks. This prolonged period of oscillation has led to the near convergence of the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart, which are now positioned between 0.66318 and 0.66349. Today, weaker US retail sales data and an RBA

On the one hand, political fears are almost always a buy. On the other hand, Europe is uninvestible most of the time. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +0.3%UK FTSE 100 +0.65%French CAC +0.8%Italy MIB +1.2%Spain IBEX +1.0% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The CHF Is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The AUD is stronger after the RBA decided to keep the cash rate steady at 4.35% in its June 2024 monetary policy decision. The move aligns with expectations. The statement said that since peaking in 2022, inflation has notably

Precious metals have lost much of their momentum from May trading but while silver has retraced the upside move by quite a bit, gold is still pretty much in consolidation territory. Granted, the run higher in gold largely came earlier in March and April. In May, gold threatened fresh record highs above $2,400 but ultimately

Prior was 0.0%Capacity utilization 78.7% vs 78.6% expectedManufacturing output +0.9% vs +0.3% expectedPrior manufacturing output -0.3% (revised to -0.4%)The index for mining increased 0.3% in May, and the index for utilities advanced 1.6%The index for defense and space equipment rose 1.0% and was nearly 10% above its year-earlier levelfull report This is an impressive reading

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The projections are updated every three monthsWe’ll have new ones in SeptemberThose are the most significant and interesting moments from the point of view of monetary policyThey are a very important indicator when it comes to deciding on rates Once again, this continues to effectively rule out a chance of a move in July. That

The USDCHF is “making a break for it” in trading today. More specifically, the market is breaking below and away from its 200 day moving out at 0.8896. It is also breaking below and away from it 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December low May high. That retracement level comes in at

Prior 4.35%Inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022Conditions in the labour market eased further over the past monthBut it is tighter than is consistent with sustained full employment and inflation at targetThe economic outlook remains uncertainThe process of returning inflation to target is unlikely to be smoothThere are uncertainties regarding the lags in

The retail sales came and weaker than expectations, and that weakened the US dollar a little. Yields are lower, stocks in premarket trading are little changed (but they aren’t necessarily enamored with the idea of lower growth/lower inflation hope. Having said that, markets are treading water (now) including the US dollar. In this video take

Prior +2.4%Core CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelimPrior +2.7% No changes to the initial estimates as euro area inflation remains stickier in May. We’ll have to see how the trend develops in Q3 to get a better idea if the ECB may look to cut rates in September next. This article was written by Justin

Fundamental Overview We got some very good news last week as both the CPI and PPI came in on the softer side. This should support the stock market in the bigger picture as it will give the Fed more confidence to start cutting rates at some point in the last part of the year. The

I did a full post on this during the best 😉 Asian timezone: US data focus for Tuesday – May retail sales – the range of expectations to watch This is an abbreviated version with “just the numbers”. – On Tuesday at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time we get retail sales for

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: As we taper bond buying, we will of course be aiming to shrink size of our balance sheet in ratio to GDP termsBasic purpose of our bond tapering would be to allow yields to move more freely driven by market forces, and revive market functioningJapan’s economy will likely see more

To put things short, the RBA is waiting on one of two things to happen next. That is either the economy weakens further in a more significant manner to prompt them to cut rates. Or that they get their wish and inflation falls, allowing them to also cut rates. For now, the lack of progress

NY Fed Pres. Williams is speaking on FOXBusiness: Rate cut path depends on data. US economy is doing well, is in better balance.Fed decision to depend on economy.Things are moving in right direction for monetary policy.Expect interest rates to come down gradually as inflation eases.Politics will not influence fed right decision.We have a very strong

Prior -72.3Economic sentiment 47.5 vs 50.0 expectedPrior 47.1 After a decent recovery in previous months, German economic sentiment is seen stalling as we look towards June. It applies to both the headline reading and the outlook index. Of note, ZEW says that inflation expectations have increased and that is perhaps a contributing factor. Adding to

Citi is joining a chorus of calls in revising higher their outlook for the S&P 500 as of late. You can check out the other calls here from earlier this week. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

But would not say that the case for a rate hike is increasingVery conscious that high rates are hurting some sectors of the countryInflation is also hurting the people, so we are focused on bringing it downUse of the word ‘vigilant’ does not mean a rate hike is coming Her remarks reads a lot like

Nothing from Cook on the economy nor monetary policy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Crude oil reversed all of its losses from the last week of May, when, despite OPEC+’s extension of voluntary output cuts, the market fell as the price broke out of a month-long range. The dip could have been purely technical, as bearish momentum increased following the breakout. The price eventually bottomed around $73

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) down 0.1% y/y expected -1.0%prior -9.6% drop in Aprilelectronics exports growing for a second straight month For the m/m, also -0.1% but painting a disappointing picture: expected +1.7%prior +7.3% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

European investors are seeing the optimism at the open earlier fade rather quickly on the day. The CAC 40 index in particular opened nearly 1% higher but has pared all of the gains on the day to near flat levels. It’s a sign that while political woes have ebbed to start the week yesterday, risk

Fundamental Overview The USD last week lost ground across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed

There’s not much that can move the market in the European session as we have just the Final Eurozone CPI readings and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. The “Final” readings are rarely impactful because the market generally moves the most on new information, especially those pieces of news that can reshape future expectations. 09:00 GMT

The testimony will come just days after the June non-farm payrolls report but two days before the June CPI reading. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Gold got stuck in a consolidation near a key support zone as the market awaits a catalyst or key technical breakouts to find some momentum. Last week, we got some very good inflation data from the CPI and PPI which should support gold in the bigger picture as it will give the Fed

The Australian central bank is expected to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at today’s meeting. Considering that inflation remains well above the RBA’s threshold range, there is no reason to take their foot off the gas pedal just yet. In terms of language, don’t expect much of a change to what we saw

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A barrage of Fed speak to come today. Some look very pertinent to traders. The times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format. 1400/1000 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin participates in an MNI Webcast discussion, “Outlook for the US Economy and Fed Policy.” 1540/1140 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins

Eurostoxx +0.6%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC 40 +0.7%UK FTSE +0.5%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +1.0% French stocks continue to show a modest rebound as political woes have ebbed slightly to start the new week. But those risks remain a key factor to watch out for, especially as we move closer towards the snap election at the

There was a discussion on whether to hike rates at the meetingBut decided to stay the course on policyWanted to make a point that we are alert to upside risks on inflationDifficult to get a read on inflation with just quarterly data The aussie is nudging a little higher as Bullock reveals that rate hikes

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 mark. That is likely to keep price action more contained near the figure level, if there is any slight push towards the downside in the session ahead. There are also some larger ones at 1.0670-75 for

A note on Monday from Citi, downgraded its outlook on European equities to ‘neutral’ from ‘overweight’. Simultaneously upgraded the more “growth-oriented” US. Citi’s key reasons for the Europe downgrade: heightened political risks; narrowing market leadership; and potential for a continued positioning unwind More: “Our sector allocation is tilted towards growth (‘overweights’ in tech, industrials) and

The USDCHF moved higher into the US session with the 0.89318 as a target followed by the 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines near 0.8939). The 0.89318 was defined by the swing lows from Thursday last week and Asian Session lows on Friday. That level was tested today on the move higher

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway will deliver a speech on inflation at 9am New Zealand time on Wednesday, 19 June 2024 this is 2100 GMT and 1700 US Eastern time on Tuesday, 18 June 2024Watch the live stream Conway will follow up at 5.30pm New Zealand time the same day (see

Major currencies are lightly changed on the day, with the dollar starting the week with a more mixed showing yesterday. The euro holding steadier as political woes ebb ever so slightly. But those risks are still persistent and may come back to bite at the single currency with eyes on the French snap election at

Westpac McDermott Miller consumer sentiment survey for the second quarter of 2024 comes in at a woeful 82.2 prior 93.2 — The quarterly New Zealand Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence survey measures the confidence and sentiment of consumers regarding economic conditions. It is a comprehensive survey that includes various indices, such as the overall Consumer

On Tuesday at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time, we get retail sales for May 2024. Consensus expectations are in the table below. This snapshot is from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. As for the ranges. For Retail sales m/m: -0.1% to +0.5% For Retail sales excl autos m/m: -0.1%

These are the main summary points from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia Reserve Bank of Australia preview. Analysts at the bank expect the RBA to leave policy on hold and the neutral bias to be kept We expect the RBA Board will leave the cash rate unchanged next week in a straight forward decision.The Q1

Via a research note from HSBC on the yuan: expect daily USD/CNY fixing to slowly drift higherwhich will see spot also trending upwardsdon’t expect the move up to quick (HSBC say not like August last year when USD/CNY jumped nearly 700 points in 8 days)says the gradual increase of the reference rate is likely to

Nomura with a review of last week’s Bank of Japan decision, what to watch for the yen, and a preview of the next BoJ meeting: The June meeting had no hawkish surprisesThe BOJ decided to reduce JGB purchases after the July Monetary Policy Meeting, with the details to be determined at that MPM. Nomura says

All-time highs in US stocks are like the sunrise these days: Guaranteed every day. A sluggish start today slowly reversed as trader bought the dip in a time-tested strategy that delivered once again. The S&P 500 is up 37 points now, or 0.7% to 5468. The Nasdaq Composite is up 0.9% and also at a

A heads up for Ellis Connolly, Head of Payments Policy at the Reserve Bank of Australia, speaking at 10.10 am Sydney time. If you do see alerts to this speech its probably not going to move AUD at all. The focus from the Reserve Bank of Australia today is on its policy decision due at

A snapshot note via Westpacon their Australian dollar view. In brief: We anticipate wider and higher ranges for AUD in the month ahead. Volatile French politics will have their sway over the global risk climate, but a resumption of more encouraging US disinflation trends and revamped Fed rate cut bets should ultimately prove more decisive.

The RBA is expected to keep its cash rate unchanged, quick preview here: Reserve Bank of Australia meet Monday & Tuesday, likely cash rate hold @ 4.35%, 12 yr high Prior to the RBA we get Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook giving acceptance remarks and receiving an award at the 70th Anniversary Celebration of

On the day: S&P 500 +0.8%Nasdaq Comp +1.0%DJIA +0.5%Russell 2000 +0.7% Toronto TSX Comp -0.3%. Breadth was better today than it was late last week but it was chipmakers Broadcom, Qualcom and Micron leading the way with some help from Tesla and Apple. Nvidia gained just 0.1% in a rare day of underperformance for the

U.S. markets will be closed Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) is recommending the US Bond market closed that day. So it is. FX desks will be closed, perhaps the odd skeleton crew — As for futures markets, for Equity Products at

J.P Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic made his name as a market-structure analyst but at some point he parlayed his fame into a job as an equity strategist and it hasn’t gone well, considering his bearish stance has run head-first into a roaring bull market. Nonetheless, he remains undeterred and today writes: “.. Our cautious stance

Following an OPEC-inspired dip to start the month, oil has now completely erased the decline and is threatening the May highs. WTI crude oil settled up $1.88 to $80.33 per barrel. That’s the highest settlement since late April and just shy of the May intraday high of $80.62. Last week there was a surprise build

Domestic sight deposits CHF 445.3 bn vs CHF 450.1 bn prior The past week sees a notable drop in Swiss sight deposits, with the trend now stretching all the way to April. If anything, it suggests the SNB possibly intervening in the FX market – that is to sell foreign currencies in exchange for the

Exness, one of the world’s largest retail brokers, announces its role as the Official Global Partner of iFX EXPO International 2024. This premier B2B event is taking place at the City of Dreams in Limassol between 18 and 20 June 2024. Exness’ participation reinforces its commitment to fostering a dynamic and collaborative environment where the

The EUR is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is starting the new trading week – heading into the US session – mostly stronger. The greenback is only lower vs the EUR . The EURUSD was lower earlier in the day, but has risen in

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.5%Italy FTSE MIB +0.8% The political angst in the region will continue to be a factor to be mindful of in trading this week. For now, there is an air of calm but we’ll see how things go with US retail sales data also on

Today is likely to be one of those Mondays when the price action could swing up and down for no apparent reason given the lack of catalysts. These days is generally better to preserve capital and refrain from trading. The only notable events on the agenda include lots of central bank speakers for the ECB

Russian President Vladimir Putin is travelling to North Korea tomorrow and will hold meetings on June 19. RIA reports that he may sign a partnership agreement during the visit that will include security issues. Putin along with Kim will make statements to the press following their meetings, which are the first bi-lateral meetings between the

The AUDUSD is lower on the day and in the process extended below the low from Friday. What the sellers could not do was to extend the fall below the 38.2% of the move up from the April 2024 low at 0.6579, and also a swing area between 0.6575 to 0.6585. The low price reached

The USDCAD has creeped higher in trading today. The range is only 34 pips currently with the average range of 62 pips over the last month of trading. Nevertheless, the price of the USDCAD has taken the price above a swing area between 1.3734 and 1.37428. The price is also moving away from its 50%

Bitcoin has been steadily sold over the past 12 hours after trading higher earlier. It’s down 0.7% on the day and is threatening the $65,000 level and last week’s low of $64,924. Cracking that would leave it at a one-month low despite US equities hitting records. It may be an example of the worsening breadth

Some local Australian data, ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads for May 2024: -2.1% m/m -18.1% y/y Says ANZ on the release: -23.9% from its peak in November 2022still more than 20% above pre-pandemic levels “The (revised) ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series shows a softening over 2024, with an 8.2% fall since the end of last year.

Last week was a bruising one for European equities as political turmoil spread throughout France, leading to debt and deficit fears. Today, some of that was scaled back. Closing changes Stoxx 600 +0.1%German DAX +0.4%UK FTSE 100flatFrench CAC +0.9%Italy MIB +0.8%Spain IBEX -0.4% CAC 40 daily: This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD last week lost ground across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed

The EURUSD fell below a swing area on Friday between 1.0720 and 1.0735. Selling intensified, and the price low moved down toward 1.0666 before bouncing back into the Friday close. Today, the initial move was to the downside in the Asian session, but the price has since bounced higher and back toward the aforementioned swing

Goldman Sachs maintains its EUR/USD forecast at 1.05 for the next 3 to 6 months. The outlook is influenced by potential political uncertainties and the resulting policy divergence, which could weaken the Euro. Key Points: Political Uncertainty Impact: Euro Weakening: Political uncertainty, especially around elections, may erode progress in economic indicators, inviting further policy divergence.Soft

The three major US stock indices are trading higher with the NASDAQ index leading the way. A positive close today in the NASDAQ would be is sixth consecutive record closing level. On Friday, the S&P index fell marginally (-0.04%). The snapped its 4-day positive streak (and 4 days of successive record closes). The Dow Industrial

Fundamental Overview The USD last week lost ground across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed

Bank of America suggests a long AUD/CHF trade in anticipation of policy divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Swiss National Bank at their upcoming June meetings. The recommendation is based on recent Australian labor market data reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate stance from the RBA. Key Points: RBA Policy Outlook: Expected Rate Decision:

NY Fed President John Williams is set to speak at the top of the hour. I’m not expecting headlines to cross as it’s a hybrid event at the Economic Club of New York where he is moderating, but I can’t rule them out. In an hour –at 1 pm ET — we will also hear

The NZDUSD continues the fall from last week’s high. Recall from last week, the price moved higher and extended above swing highs from February 22, March 8, and June 6 up to 0.6215. The high-priced last week extended to 0.6221 but stalled and started the rotation back to the downside. The rotation to the downside

Harker speaks at a monetary policy conference: If my economic forecast plays out, I think one cut would be appropriate this yearTwo cuts or none also ‘quite possible’ depending on dataMore data is essential to come to a decision on rate cuts given choppiness so far this yearOver the ensuing months I will continue to

The GBPUSD is trading to a new session high, and in the process, broke back above its rising 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.26737. The price also extended above a swing area (see red number circles on the chart above) between 1.26748 and 1.26858. That should disappoint the sellers on the

In a tweet (or X), WSJs Timiraos sees core PCE moving to 2.6% from 2.8% last month. 3 month annualized rate dropping back below 3.0% and the 6 month annualized around 3.2% from 3.3% last month. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Headlines: ECB’s Lane: There are still questions surrounding inflation momentumECB’s Lane: We should not be too sensitive to monthly inflation dataECB’s Lane: If there is big movement in euro currency, it would be relevant for policyECB reportedly have no plans to discuss emergency purchases of French bondsBOJ governor Ueda says will scrutinise FX moves, impact

European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks (governor of Latvia’s central bank). He was pretty blunt on the policy backdrop, saying that the Bank must not allow inflation to remain above 2% into 2026. ECB projections are that the 2% target inflation rate will only be met towards the end of 2025. Kazaks is clearly

The USDCHF moved lower on Friday, but for the 2nd time last week, the breaks below the 200 day MA at session lows could not be sustained. Nevertheless, the price stalled just above that MA at 0.8896. In trading today, the price rotated higher and moved up to a swing low area from both Thursday

Prior was 240.2K (revised to 241.1K)Single detached +2%Multi-urban starts +13% Canadian housing starts rose 3.8% in May with a huge 104% rise in Montreal leading the way. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Major US indices are trading lower to start the new trading week. The major three indices are down around 0.15% to 0.25% The NASDAQ is on a five-day win streak with record closes on each of those trading days. The S&P snapped its win streak on Friday with a modest decline. A snapshot of the

The USD is mixed vs the major currencies to start the trading on June 17, 2024. In the kickstart video, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, the pair is higher on the day (lower USD) and is higher looking to test a key swing area between 1.0798

A really big move would matter for CPI forecastBut these are not big movementsDo not think policy divergence with the Fed is any more of an issue than it was beforeThe peak effect of rates on inflation hasn’t occurred yet He’s offering plenty of remarks today, covering a broad range of topics. But the bottom

On Monday, the focus in the U.S. will be on the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Tuesday brings the monetary policy announcement from Australia. In the U.S., we will receive the retail sales m/m data and industrial production m/m. Wednesday’s key event is the release of the CPI data for the U.K. On Thursday, Switzerland will

Prior was -15.6New orders -1.0 vs -16.2 priorPrices paid +24.5 vs +33.7 priorEmployment -8.7 vs -5.1 priorSix month index +30.1 vs +14.5 prior (two year high) These details and the headline paint an improving picture in the first manufacturing survey of the month. Despite that, the Fed might notice that the employment and avg workweek

From before: Evercore raised year-end forecast on S&P500 Index to 6,000Deutsche Bank raised its 2024 year-end S&P 500 target to 5,500UBS raises its S&P 500 forecast as high as 5600, 4 reasons for support This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.8%HICP +0.8% vs +0.8% y/y prelimPrior +0.9% No changes to the initial estimates, with Italian inflation being kept in check in recent months. Core annual inflation eased further as well, now seen at 2.0% – down from 2.1% previously. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The PBoC has kept the 1-year MLF interest rate unchanged at 2.5% injects 182bn yuan vs. the 237bn maturing (thus a 55bn yuan drain in MLF from the banking system)for 1 year – What is the MLF? The PBOC’s MLF rate is a benchmark interest rate that banks in China can use to borrow funds

That will not resolve immediately, need more than a monthWe won’t know a lot more about services inflation momentum by JulyBut every meeting is a live oneWe will have a lot of survey data at the next ECB meeting in JulyIf we get welcome surprises on inflation or economy weakens by more than expected, then

Let’s get straight into details and what can we expect from the respective policy meetings this week. RBA – Not one for change With Australian inflation still holding well above the RBA’s threshold range, don’t expect much fireworks from the decision this week. The central bank is expected to keep the bank rate unchanged. And

S&P 500 futures are down 7 points, or 0.1%, ahead of the open. Nasdaq futures are slightly higher as tech outperforms once again. The highlight this week is tomorrow’s US retail sales report but we will also run into a holiday on Wednesday. That could cool this week’s trading through it runs into a big

The Australian dollar is at a one-week low against the US dollar as USD climbs broadly higher following a beat in the June Empire Fed manufacturing survey. The main reading was -6 from -9 but new orders jumped to -1.0 from -16.2 and the six-month index hit a two-year high. The US dollar was already

Today we have Aksel Kibar on the show, an ex-fund manager and a classical chart pattern trader. What’s interesting about Aksel is, he has one of the cleanest charts I’ve seen on Twitter. The post How To Profit With Chart Patterns (With Aksel Kibar) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Fundamental Overview The USD last week lost ground across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed

The Singapore Exchange (SGX) is closed today for Eid al-Adha. Singapore’s absence will think out trading liquidity today during Asia time. — SGX is normally open Monday to Friday (local times): 9:00 am – 12:00 pm — Morning Trading Session 1:00 pm – 5:00 pm — Afternoon Trading Session 5:06 pm – 5:16 pm —

New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) latest report on Consensus Forecasts. Full text is here. For the kiwi dollar: Their broader summary for the NZ economy, saying that the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts: show a further downward revision to the growth outlook for the coming yearForecasts of annual average GDP growth for the years

Cutting to the chase, UBS say the next technical levels below to watch for breaking are: 1.06701.06451.0600 —- This time last week EUR/USD had gapped down to open the new week on the political news out of France. As wrapped up here: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: EUR lower on EU politics While the (politics)

Need to differentiate between noise and signalWe will see bumps in inflation, can deal with thatWe are seeing significant wage increases in some countriesCost pressures to be more muted next year In other words, when the numbers aren’t to their liking then it is ‘noise’. And if the numbers support their case, then it is

Just a simple reminder folks that if you are trading emini US equity futures on the CME the June contract expires this week. There is a lot going on so you may (probably not) have been distracted. Firstly, if you are new to all this, check out: Understanding Futures Expiration & Contract Roll Alternatively, if

China May new home prices -0.71% m/m prior -0.58 -3.9% y/y prior -3.1% Used home prices -1.0% m/m prior -0.94% more to come No recovery yet for house prices in China. Efforts to bolster the sector are continuing, the next opportunity seems to be coming up in July: China may introduce additional measures to boost

The times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format. Williams and Harker look likely to be of most relevance to traders. 1600/1200 Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams moderates a conversation before hybrid event hosted by the Economic Club of New York1700/1300 Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Fundamental Overview The USD last week lost ground across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed

2024 GDP growth forecast seen at +1.2% (previously +1.1%)2025 GDP growth forecast seen at +1.7% (unchanged)2024 CPI forecast seen at +1.4% (previously +1.5%)2025 CPI forecast seen at +1.1% (unchanged) The part on inflation is the more vital part for Switzerland. It fits with what the SNB’s policy plans at least, so that continues to be

New Zealand Performance of Services Index for May 2024, via BusiznessNZ. BusinessNZ headline their report with the dour: “Bottom of the Barrel” lowest for a non-COVID lockdown month since the survey began in 2007 BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope: as bad as it can get for the sector, reaching contraction levels greater than during the

Japanese Core Machinery Orders for April dropped -2.9% m/m first m/m, the first m/m fall in 3 months. However, they didn’t fall as much as expected: Japan Core Machinery Orders (April) -2.9% m/m (vs. expected -3.1%) The ‘not as bad as we expected’ has Japan’s Cabinet Office breaking out the high fives, upgrading their assessment:

Federal Reserve speakers Monday include Williams, Harker and CookEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde and chief economist Lane speaking on MondayAustralian jobs data (May) – ANZ private survey -2.1% m/m and -18.1% y/yDiary note – Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to appear in parliament Monday and TuesdayChina interest rate cuts face internal and external constraintsChina May

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0670 level. If anything else, that will act as a bit of a defensive layer in limiting downside price action before rolling off. It isn’t exactly a technically significant level, though last week’s lows

BOJ may raise rates to 0.5% by end of next yearThat is if economy and prices move in line with forecastsBOJ likely to forgo raising rates in July and wait at least until September For some context, the BOJ is currently purchasing around ¥6 trillion per month. And they will continue with that pace until

Service prices will continue to rise moderatelyThat reflects the increase in wages Just some token remarks there by Ueda. USD/JPY is little changed on the day, sitting at 157.45 currently. The pair had threatened a break higher above the 158.00 mark on Friday last week, only to fall short as yields sank lower. This article

German DAX futures +0.3%UK FTSE futures +0.4% That follows the rough showing by European equities last week, as political angst weighed on the mood. The same will continue to cast a dark cloud over proceedings this week. For today, the overall mood is more tepid with S&P 500 futures marked down by 0.1% currently. This

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will appear in the Diet on Monday 17 June 2024 at 0730 GMT / 0330 US Eastern time. He’ll appear again tomorrow, Tuesday, 18 June 2024 The latest we’ve had from the Bank of Japan is they will cut back on JGB purchases to be announced at the July meeting:

The Reserve Bank of Australia is meeting today and tomorrow, Monday, 17 June 2024 and Tuesday, 18 June 2024. The Bank’s decision is due at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday this is 0430 GMT and 0030 US Eastern time Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will hold her press conference an hour later, at 3.30pm

It is said that the policymakers hadn’t reached a point of discussing the need to dip into their emergency bond-buying scheme to offer support for French debt. However, the sources say that there are varying degrees of concern surrounding French bonds. For some context, French bonds suffered quite a selloff last week after a snap

The People’s Bank of China set its Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate on the 115th of each month. The 15th fell on Saturday so we are going to get it today instead. The rate is currently 2.5%, and there are wide expectations of no change to the rate today. — What is the MLF? The

China interest rate cuts face internal and external constraints, state media says in a front-page article. Reuters citing Chinese state media outlet, Financial News (this outlet is backed by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC)): China still has room to lower interest rates, but its ability to adjust monetary policy faces internal and external constraints”Objectively

Evercore is a “global independent investment bank”. From an analysis note issued Sunday (US time): raised year-end forecast on the S&P 500 Index to 6,0007000 possible by end 2025estimate for the index’s per-share earnings in 2024 and 2025 to $238 and $251, respectively (imply a 8% and 5% profit growth)says the $238 EPS pushed price

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari spoke on Sunday, US time, with US media, CBS’ “Face the Nation”. We need to see more evidence to convince US inflation is heading to 2%US economy is stronger than in other countries that are cutting ratesJob market has performed better than expectedMay be more cooling in labor market

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters citing 5 unnamed sources for this info: European Central Bank policymakers have not discussed emergency bond purchases for France Have no immediate plan to debate using TPI for france Some ECB policymakers would wait until new French govt is formed before any discussion about TPI ** What is TPI? ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI)

There will be quite a number of key risk events this week but they will mostly be in the days to come. Major central bank meetings are back in the fold, with the RBA, SNB, and BOE all on the agenda. But for today, it will be a slower start to the week with little

Lane looks likely to be of the most relevance, but check in for anything from the other two. The times below are in GMT / US Eastern time format: 0800 / 0400 Participation by ECB chief economist Philip R. Lane in on-stage conversation and Q&A at Reuters Newsmakers event in London, United Kingdom I don’t

UBS economist Ning Zhang says China is bracing itself for a trade war with the US under a second Trump presidency. Local media (gated) carry the UBS analysis: In an interview with The Australian during a visit to Australia, Mr Zhang said China was bracing itself for a trade war with the US that could

Japan Core Machinery Orders (April) -2.9% m/m first m/m fall in 3 monthsexpected -3.1%, prior +2.9% +0.7% y/y expected -0.4%, prior +2.7% — The core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series its used as a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months This article was written by Eamonn

Key economic indicators from China for May 2024. Unemployment Rate Urban Area 5.0% prior 5.0% Property Investment YTD for May -10.1% y/y expected -10.0%, prior -9.8% This is a disappointing result for property investment. Chinese authorities have continually boosted efforts to support the troubled sector. Doing so not only benefits the sector, but bolsters consumer

Info comes via Agence France-Presse. Other info also comes from China’s Global Times: Be wary of the bias of Chinese state media. The waters entered are very likely to be international. The ‘control measures’ are likely to be the Chinese ship attacking the P vessel with water cannon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates: EUR/USD 1.0700USD/JPY 157.35GBP/USD 1.2688USD/CHF 0.8910USD/CAD 1.3737AUD/USD 0.6620NZD/USD 0.6133 There is a wee bit of news about over the weekend, I’ll

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued a statement on Sunday: said it’ll further evaluate and refine rules for margin trading and securities lendingwill add to regulation of “illicit” short-selling SCRC says the enhanced measures are to ensure market stability. There is more here at China Global Times. Chinese shares slid last week. This article

Prior to the regular monthly economic activity data covering Retail sales, Industrial output and investment we get House Price data. Efforts continue to stabilise China’s property sector, we’ll get a guide to their relative success with this data today. As for the ‘activity’ data there are some expectations that retailing will have picked up in

Week Ahead 17-21st June: Mon: PBoC MLF, Chinese Activity Data (May), EZ Wages and Labour Costs (Q1) Tue: RBA Announcement, NBH Announcement, EZ Final CPI (May), German ZEW Survey (Jun), US Retail Sales (May), Japanese Trade Balance (May) Wed: BoC Minutes, BCB Announcement, UK Inflation (May), New Zealand GDP (Q1) Thu: BoE Announcement, PBoC LPR

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: PBoC MLF, New Zealand Services PMI, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Eurozone Wage Growth.Tuesday: RBA Policy Decision, Eurozone ZEW, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production.Wednesday: UK CPI, US NAHB Housing Market Index, BoC Meeting Minutes.Thursday: New Zealand GDP, PBoC LPR, SNB Policy Decision, BoE Policy Decision, US Housing Starts and Building

“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.” That’s the first amendment and may prove to be what

RBC says the decision for the Bank of Canada to cut rates as the country has underperformed global peers on a per-capital basis for more than a year. Theyalso say that’s why it’s easier to envision the BOC on a sharper path of easing than other G10 central banks. They envision the Bank of England

French President Emmanuel Macron took the mother-of-all political risks by calling an early election. His hope was that voters would recoil from the far-left and far-right and gravitate to his party. Instead, the opposite has happened. The far left united and a good chunk of his own party wants to join the far right. A

Apple broke higher this week on the back of the new AII news for the company (and its products announced ar the World Wide Developers Confeence. Fundamentally, the hope is the new AI initiatives will stir a new round of product upgrades for its user base. That is something new vs what has been ho-hum

France’s president Macron: Not worried by the impact on markets after decision to dissolve governmentEconomic programs by twoto extremist blocks in parliament election are not realistic.We are at a very serious moment for our country, with major economic issues at stake. Hopes to have agreement on top you jobs quickly This article was written by

The NASDAQ index closed at a new record on Monday at 17192.53. It did the same on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and again today to extend the streak of consecutive high close levels to five trading days. The S&P was on a similar move this week, but close marginally lower today snapping it 4-day record close

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee is speaking and says: CPI data this week was very good. If we got a lot of months like May CPI data, we would be feeling very goodMy feeling was reliefWe got to see some more progressWe are going to get a lot of data between now and September, December meetings

June US UMich June prelim consumer sentiment 65.6 vs 72.0 expectedMacron’s gamble is looking like a disaster as new poll releasedFrance’s Macron: Economic programs by two extremists blocks are not realisticChicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee CPI data this week was very goodBaker Hughes US oil rig count -4ECB’s Lagarde: Unless we have a major shock, target

It’s no surprise that euro longs are bailing with all the turmoil in France. We saw how much in the latest CFTC data, which covers futures up to Tuesday’s close. Net spec longs fell to 44K contracts from 67K. I wouldn’t be surprised if more cashed out later this week due to the pain hitting

Crude oil futures are settling at $78.45. That is down $0.17 and -0.22% The high-priced today reached $79.11. The low price was at $77.75. Looking at the daily chart above, the price high this week moved toward the near converged 100 and 200 day moving averages. Those levels come near $79.45. Going into next week,

Oil -4 to 488Natural gas unchanged at 98 Oil drilling rigs have steadily declined in the past year, though that’s offset somewhat by longer laterals. It bodes poorly for US production growth late this year and into 2025. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Will monitor impact of China’s excess production on Japanese economy.Poised to soon officially announce new sanction package against Russia. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -1.0%German DAX -1.3%UK FTSE 100 -0.1%French CAC -2.7%Italy MIB -2.9%Spain IBEX -0.9% This was the worst week in the Stoxx 600 since October. Does this trend-break matter? A 50% retracement of the rally since October would be a 6.6% decline from here. Meanwhile, the CAC 40 has already retraced 50% of

Ahead of today’s decision, markets fully price in another rate hike by September (assuming another 10 basis point hike). The BoJ remains the only central bank who is expected to raise rates this year. The reason why this hasn’t really provided any support for the JPY is because another 10 or even 20 won’t make

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 rises to 3.1% from 2.6% on June 6 In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on June 7, up from 2.6 percent on June 6. After this morning’s employment

Lagarde was asked about the use of TIPI for France, said it is the duty of ECB to deliver on its inflation mandate This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDJPY corrected higher since the start of the US session, and ran into resistance above between 157.40 and 157.464. Buyers turned to sellers against the level. Going forward, that swing area will be close resistance not only today but in the new trading week. If broken, traders would look toward the May 29 high

Prior +2.2%HICP +2.6% vs +2.7% y/y prelimPrior +2.4% The good news at least is that core annual inflation decreased further in May, dropping to 1.7% – down from the 1.9% reading in April. Services inflation also fell slightly but remains sticky at 2.8%. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US equities are narrowly positive again today with tech leading the way. Of course, it’s Nvidia once again leading the rally with a 2.9% gain. Earlier this week it was Apple rising by as much as 12% as it rolled out some AI features, including AI emojis, that added $380 billion to its market cap.

• Underlying economic momentum remains weak and is consistent with disinflation. • Future fiscal policy is expected to lead to lower government spending and so doing support monetary policy • The Q1 GDP data will be critical for the RBNZ in assessing domestic demand and inflation risks. Private consumption and various investment and spending indicators

Prior was -1.1%Manufacturing sales +1.1% vs +1.2% expectedPrior manufacturing sales -2.1% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD started the week testing the low of a swing area (going back to early May) near 0.6579 and also the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 2024 low to the May high near the same level. Sellers pushed the price below that level early on Monday of this week, but

Prior was 67.4Current conditions 62.5 vs 68.8 priorExpectations 67.6 vs 66.5 prior1-year inflation 3.3% vs 3.5% prior5 year inflation 3.1% vs 3.1% prior This isn’t a great indicator and is often political but it wasn’t just Republican, as Democratic sentiment fell to 86.4 from 90.8 last month and 100.2 the month before and is the

The USDCHF rebounded earlier this week in the process extended above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May high to the June low. The level came in at 0.8986. However, momentum cannot be sustained in the price started rotation to the downside helped by the weaker CPI on Wednesday. The low for

• Report issued today by the IAEA makes clear that Iran aims to continue expanding its nuclear program in ways that have no credible peaceful purpose. • We remain in close coordination with our partners and allies and are prepared to continue to increase pressure on Iran should its non-cooperation with the IAEA continue. News

Yesterday, we got another good report as the US PPI missed expectations by a big margin making the market to fully price back two rate cuts by the end of the year. Forecasters can reliably estimate the PCE once the CPI and PPI are out, and the intial estimates show that Core PCE M/M is

As the North American session begins, the CHF is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is mostly stronger to start the US session. Overnight, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain its overnight rates at 0.1% and voted to reduce JGB (Japanese Government Bond) purchases to allow long-term interest rates

The Fed was always going to be late to cut rates and certainly won’t cut them fast enough when the cycle starts. That’s the natural reaction to getting burned by inflation in the covid era. It’s been awhile since we’ve had a ‘normal’ rate cutting cycle so it’s worth a reminder about what happens and

Headlines: USD/JPY pares gains on the day as risk flows weighFrench stocks near the next key technical juncture amid a further drop todayThe Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is expected to ease furtherBOJ governor Ueda: It is important to reduce JGB purchases in a predictable mannerBOJ governor Ueda says will begin tapering bond purchases immediately

Rate cutting is likely to be slower than hiking was.Inflation has slowed markedly in recent months.Risks to the disinflation process remain.Persistent wage gains coould slow disinflation.Services costs and political tensions are other risks.Decisions are to be made meeting by meeting. Vasle is a hawk, so these comments are not surprising. The governing council is anyway

Fundamental Overview The USD was sold across the board on Wednesday following the soft US CPI report. The data made the market to price back in two cuts for this year. Later in the day though we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed that the Fed sees

German DAX futures +0.3%UK FTSE futures +0.4% This comes after another solid showing in Wall Street yesterday, with the S&P 500 recovering late on to finish the day higher. US futures are lightly changed today though. But tech shares are still looking to push higher in what I can only describe as a bit of

The USDCAD this week initially moved lower with the USD selling after the US CPI report on Wednesday. However, the pair ran into technical support at the 100/200 bar MAs on the 4-hour chart and started the bounce higher. See the post here: The subsequent move back to the upside has now retraced the full

He says the decision to do so is to avoid confusion and uncertainty before next month. Well, then he probably shouldn’t have made this comment here last week. Now, that is what causes confusion. As for whether he will pre-announce rate hikes, he just notes that the decision today is an exceptional one i.e. likely

The Michigan survey numbers were much weaker than expectations. Despite the sharp declines, the dollar is steady and trading near highs vs the EUR and GBP. The Michigan survey may be losing some of its bite as politics takes control going into the election. If you are Trump supporter, the situation is dire. If you

This is what regime change in the stock market looks like. On Wednesday, the Russell 2000 surged on a soft CPI report and it bumped higher yesterday on PPI. But here we are at the lows of the week and at a six-week low, as it reversed a 2% gain. For 18 months, the market

France continues to splinter and it looks like Macron’s election gambit could badly backfire, with consequences throughout the union. The euro is down 50 pips today but the real pain is in equities, with the CAC down 2.4% and now flat on the year. Today’s data starts at the bottom of the hour with US

Constantly checking FX moves, sustainability of those moves, and its impact on pricesWill set rates at July meeting while considering reduction in JGB purchases He doesn’t sound like he’s in much of a hurry to take the next step to hike rates further, at least for now. USD/JPY now back up to 158.10 on the

Today’s BoJ decision is a good lesson on source reports. We’ve seen this happen so many times, where info is leaked to markets on what the BoJ is planning to do at an upcoming meeting, only to then see the BoJ not follow through or do something different. There were a few participants expecting the

The turnaround after the US CPI report from Wednesday continues. The dollar is advancing further in European morning trade today, with a weaker euro and yen contributing alongside a softer risk mood in markets. EUR/USD is now down 0.3% to near 1.0700 and that is its lowest level since 2 May. The pair looks poised

Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.6%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.3% The mood music is softening as we get into European trading, with S&P 500 futures also now down by 0.1% on the day. Nasdaq futures are still seen up 0.1% but Dow futures are down 0.2%, as the unhealthy balance in

The US stock markets are open and trading, and the major indices are lower led by the Dow industrial average. For the trading week both the S&P and NASDAQ index are higher as they extended to all-time highs this week. The Dow industrial average is not higher today nor for the trading week. A snapshot

Prior €24.1 billion The overview of the trade situation in the euro area as of April 2024: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective. The EURUSD yesterday moved to a swing area support (between 1.0720 and 1.0734) and found temporary support, but in the Asian session today, that area was broken and it opened the door for further selling momentum. That

Fundamental Overview The USD was sold across the board on Wednesday following the soft US CPI report. The data made the market to price back in two cuts for this year. Later in the day though we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed that the Fed sees

• New Zealand manufacturing pmi prints at 47.2 vs a prior of 48.9 This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Fed and ECB speakers on the wires today…can hardly contain my excitement. On the wires during the EU session: ECB’s Lane (10:00 BST | 05:00 ET) ECB’s de Guindos (10:00 BST | 05:00 ET) ECB’s Schnabel (14:30 BST | 09:30 ET) ECB’s Lagarde (18:30 BST | 13:30 ET) Fed’s Goolsbee (19:00 BST | 14:00 ET)

Decision to reduce JGB purchases is to ensure long-term yields are formed more freelyJapan’s economic, price uncertainties remain highMust pay due attention to financial, FX markets As a reminder to their decision earlier, the announcement was made that they will formulate a detailed plan to reduce bond buying in July. Many market participants expected them

US equities are set for a lower open, though tech is once-again outperforming. S&P 500 futures are down 25 points or 0.45%. Nasdaq futures are down 0.2%. Consider this: Bespoke notes that the Nasdaq 100 Equalweight index was down 0.48% yesterday versus a gain of 0.57% for the regular cap-weighted Nasdaq 100Yesterday, about 160 stocks

In the weeks ahead, we will see a picture of deteriorating data and it will be clear the Bank of Canada is behind the curve. An overnight rate at 4.75% is still very restrictive in an over-leveraged economy. It’s clear from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s latest speech that he wants to ease rates

Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the 12 months after that is seen at 2.6% (vs 2.8% previously). The inflation expectations for 5 years’ time remains unchanged at 3.1% though. As for the public opinion on rates, 42% think it is best for the economy if rates are to go down. That is the highest share in

• New Zealand food price index -0.2 vs 0.6 prior These numbers arguably don’t matter as much as most of the RBNZ’s concern on inflation is fixated on non-tradable inflation right now. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

It is shaping up to be a rather risk averse session in European trading today. Equities are falling across the board and bonds are being bid quite strongly on the session. Of note, France’s CAC 40 index is now down over 2% with S&P 500 futures down 0.4% on the day. And 10-year yields in

It was just last month that French stocks threatened fresh record highs. But after the political events since last weekend, it has been a torrid week for equities in the region. The CAC 40 index in particular is set for its biggest weekly fall since September 2022, with today adding another 1.2% decline. The index

As we head into the Asia-Pac session the EUR is the weakest while the CHF is the strongest. • The weakness in the EUR is a continuation from the current political uncertainty in France. • The CHF is most likely supported (along with the USD) due to the sour risk sentiment in Europe. This article

Some recovery in real wages is inevitableWe should continue to be data-dependent Despite the headline remark, he isn’t as confident to suggest when exactly the ECB can resume cutting rates. For now, July is definitely out of the question. But they’re not pre-committing to a September move for the time being at least. This article

You can see our policy affect the economy, cited housing, growth and labor marketThe question is whether it’s sufficiently restrictive Mester is set to retire next month. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD was sold across the board on Wednesday following the soft US CPI report. The data made the market to price back in two cuts for this year. Later in the day though we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed that the Fed sees

Prior was +0.9%Export prices -0.6% vs 0.0% expectedImport prices 1.1% vs 1.1% prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The size of cut in bond purchases is to be substantialThe specific amount will be decided after listening to input from market participants This is taking the wind out of the sails in USD/JPY a fair bit, with the pair now down to 157.80 from around 158.15 when Ueda began speaking. This article was written

BOJ makes decision on JGB purchases by 8-1 vote.BOJ Board Member Nakamura dissented to decision on JGB purchases.BOJ’s Nakamura dissented to decision on JGB purchases, saying bank should decide to reduce it after reassessing developments in economic activity and prices in July 2024 Outlook Report.Decided to trim bond buying to allow long-term interest rates to

• If you want a fantastic rundown of what the USD/CNY midpoint is look no further than the awesome daily updates from Eamonn. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

No comment on possible market impact from BOJ decisionExpects BOJ to conduct policy appropriately, working closely with government A bit of a verbal pushback there as USD/JPY has risen up to clip the 158.00 mark in trading today. The high earlier touched 158.25, with the pair now trading around 158.05 on the day. This article

Some were leaning towards the bank reducing bond purchases after a Nikkei report suggested it’s a possibility last week. BoJ decided to maintain purchases and JPY not liking it. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Uncertainty is high but the path is leaning towards lower inflationWe can remove some restriction but still need to retain some degree of restrictiveness In other words, he is backing more rate cuts if the data trajectory holds in the months to come. As for market pricing, traders are seeing ~41 bps of rate cuts

Prior +7.2%New yuan loans ¥950.0 bnPrior ¥730.0 bn New bank loans continue to show further signs of moderation, with the above figure missing on estimates of around ¥1.2 trillion. The January to May total stands at ¥11.14 trillion – which is still on the high side. But that owes much to the surge in January,

No love for the EUR at the moment as markets price higher risk premiums given the current political uncertainty in France. It’s important to keep in mind that political risk premiums tend to overshoot, which means at some stage the moves will get overdone and participants will start looking for bargains (be it in the

Heads up that next week Friday is the third Friday of the month and last month of the quarter, which means it’s monthly OpEx quad witching (not related to quads or witches though). Quad witching is when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire simultaneously. These events tend

The dollar showed much resilience in trading yesterday, despite setbacks from a softer PPI report and weekly jobless claims data. A strong bid in the 30-year Treasury auction perhaps underscored some of the bigger flows in markets, with traders shifting their allocation from Europe to the US. The political developments in Europe since last weekend

The price of crude oil futures settled at $78.62. That is up $0.12 or 0.15%. The high for the day reached $78.85. The low for the day was at $77.69. Looking at the hourly chart, the low price today stayed above its rising 100-hour moving average at $77.48. If that moving average can hold support

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

Apart from the volatility in the JPY, the Asia-Pacific session has seen mostly muted flows across major asset classes. Equities: Mostly mixed with North American equity futures mixed with the Russel and Dow lower while the ES and NQ is marginally higher). EMEA equity futures have seen a bit of a bounce but nothing too

The reports over the last week suggested that the BOJ was going to start tapering bond purchases at today’s meeting. Ueda also hinted at that in his speech last week here. That set up market expectations, with the majority anticipating such a move to come this week. But alas, this turns out to be another

The NZDUSD has corrected lower today after extending to a key swing area yesterday on the better CPI and finding sellers. The move lower today has moved down to test the 200-hour MA at 0.6162. Yesterday, the price moved above that MA level on the back of the tamer CPI data. Buyers on the dip,

USDJPY is approaching 157.90 after the BoJ decision. I’m so tired of the intervention talk (will they, won’t they, should they), but it won’t be the first time they disappoint markets on the dovish side and then intervene afterwards so something to keep on the radar though. This article was written by Arno V Venter

US May PPI 2.2% y/y vs +2.5% expectedUS initial jobless claims 242K versus 225K estimateUS Treasury auctions off $22 billion of 30-year bonds at a high-yield of 4.403%Treasury Secretary Yellen: Strong US growth is lifting global growthBOC’s Kozicki: We expect to end quantitative tightening at some point in 2025 Markets: Gold down $19 to $2303WTI

Happy Friday everyone! We don’t have much in the European session today other than some ECB speakers who are going to tell us again that they are data dependent and they won’t pre-commit to anything as they wait for more information before September. The only notable release will be the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

• A 90% majority expecting rates to remain steady next quarter and a 25 basis-point cut to 4.10% projected in the final quarter of this year. • A significant number of economists (63%) forecast interest rates to fall to 4.10% or lower by year-end, while a minority (35%) expect no change. This article was written

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. But barring any surprise moves, they aren’t likely to feature much into play. The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0800-10, which aren’t likely to be of much impact. The euro is weighed down by political angst on the week with the dollar

These levels are based on 1-month implied volatility and can be used as dynamic and market-based levels of support and resistance. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Most noticeable events on the calendar today • The main event during Asia-Pac will of course be the Bank of Japan policy decision, where markets expect no adjustment to rates, but some are expecting the bank to announce a reduction in bond buying (which has been well telegraphed and leaked so unlikely to be a

• South Korea May export prices in won terms +7.5% y/y vs +6.5% in April • South Korea May import prices in won terms +4.6% y/y vs +2.9% in April • South Korea May export prices mark fastest rise y/y since Nov 2022 • South Korea May import prices mark fastest rise y/y since Dec

If you’re wondering what time the BoJ is today… Unfortunately, the bank of Japan never gives us a set time for their policy decision, so the best we can do is a guestimate. We’ll need to be ready for the announcement anytime from 03:30 BST onwards. Have fun! This article was written by Arno V

PBoC injects 2 billion Yuan via 7-day reverse reposSets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Rates: markets are pricing in a close to 91% chance of a hold from the bank (close to 10% chance of a hike) – quite surprised that it isn’t 100%. The recent trend in economic data has been mostly disappointing, with the Citi Economic Surprise Index for Japan showing a consistent string of downside surprises

South Korea and US diplomats hold emergency phone call over possible Putin visit to North Korea according to the Foreign Ministry. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Jump in claims is highest since August last year, indicating a cooling labor market and presenting an upside risk to the Fed’s forecast of maintaining unemployment at 4%. Soft PPI figures increase likelihood of a second consecutive 0.2% or lower MM rise for PCE. Combination of rising claims and soft PPI reinforces argument for cuts

Surprised by the USD’s lack of reaction to PPI and Initial claims data? Me too. We know PPI doesn’t usually see the same type of volatility as we would see with CPI data of course, but the numbers were punchy. It wasn’t just the PPI numbers which were much softer than expected, but Initial Claims

The broader US indices closed at record levels once again. For the NASDAQ index the index closed at a record level for the third consecutive day. For the S&P index it had thrown together for consecutive record closes. The Dow Industrial Average average continues to lag. It still remains well below the 40,003 high closing

In the contest of the worst forecasters, the analysts have easily outperformed the forecasters. Those who predicted a significant correction in U.S. markets missed the mark. The indices, especially the S&P 500, have avoided a downturn despite high Fed rates and persistent inflation and reached new all-time highs. Investors seem reluctant to dump seemingly overvalued

Admittedly, the USDCHF is non-trending with up-and-down price action today. There was an extreme reached after the US PPI and claims data with the price extending to a session low of 0.89318. However, momentum could not be sustained and the price moved higher. The move higher did stay below its rising 100-hour moving average at

Bonds are suddenly hot. After months where Treasuries couldn’t get a bid at auction, we’ve suddenly had back-to-back strong auctions of 10s and 30s. And not just strong but stops-through of 1.5 bps and 2.0 bps, respectively. With that, 30-year yields are at the lowest since April 1 and 10s down to 4.22% from a

High yield 4.403%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.418%Bid to cover: 2.49X vs 6-month average of 2.41XTail: -1.5% bps vs 6-month average of -0.7 basis pointDIrects (a measure of domestic demand): 17.8% vs 6-month average of 19.8%Indirects (a measure of international demand): 68.5% vs 6-month average of 64.9%Dealers (they take the balance): 13.7.x%

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams speaks on ThursdayChina’s SAFE (forex regulator) says it’ll severely crack down on illegal FX activitiesANZ forecast for Brent crude oil to USD95/bbl (12 month horizon)Australian dollar hasn’t moved much on the jobs data – here’s when the next CPI is dueTwo speakers from the Bank of

The major European indices including sharply lower. Both France and German indices are closing near 2% lower as investor continue to be spooked by the fallout from far-right gains in last weekend’s EU elections. The final numbers are showing: German DAX, -1.97%France CAC, -1.99%UK FTSE 100 100, -0.63%Spain’s Ibex, -1.59%Italy’s FTSE MIB, -2.18% As the

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin is speaking and says: Strong US growth is lifting global growthThe US labor market remains strong.US labor market pressures have eased, wages rising more slowly.Outlook for business investing looks good.Firms seeking higher returns to investment.Expect to see further progress lowering inflation. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD is trading to a new session low, and in the process is testing the key 100-day moving average and 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (it is dipping below the level now). A break below the level would tilt the technical bias more to the downside, with the low price from Tuesday

The economic data in the US over the last 24 hours has been on the dollars/week aside with CPI and PPI behaving nicely and the US initial jobless claims showing some employment slow down. From the Fed, however, the largely followed for plot showed only one cut between now and the end of the year

The EURUSD has continued to move to the downside after earlier breaking below its 200-day moving average of 1.07854. The price has since moved to and through a modest swing area near 1.0752, and is now testing another more significant swing year between 1.07198, and 1.07346. This swing area goes back to the end of

The Fed funds market is back to nearly-fully pricing in two Fed rate cuts this year. Yesterday’s dot plot showed the majority of Fed officials now expecting to cut just once this year (down from 3 times in March) but it’s by a margin of 11-8 so it could easily swing. Moreover, Fed Chairman Jerome

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The US treasury will auction off $22 billion of 30 year bonds at the top of the hour. On Monday the coupon auctions for the week was started with the sale of three year note. That auction did not go well with a positive tail (rate above the WI level at the time of the

When it comes to choosing a broker for trading and investing, the cost is a significant factor. Investors often seek platforms that offer zero or minimal fees to maximize their returns. The notion of a “totally free” broker can be appealing to anyone looking to save on costs. While there are brokers who offer commission-free

The ECB will continue to keep up this rhetoric over the next few weeks surely. It will only be after the summer that we might get a change up in the commentary. And that itself will depend on inflation developments in the months ahead as well. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

And it sure did not disappoint. It was very much like a poker game, with the flop (CPI report) being presented first. Then, we moved on to the turn (dot plots) and finally the river (Powell’s presser). Overall, it ended with a push and pull by the time we wrapped things up yesterday. It was

European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel spoke at the Finance Committee of the German Bundestag in Berlin on Wednesday: said the “last mile” of the euro area’s disinflation process is likely to be more difficult than previous stagesgoods inflation is “dropping quickly,” the service sector inflation is proving tricky though She didn’t

Swiss producer prices eased last month, with the overall trend seemingly a little bumpy. But it is clear that it isn’t suggesting any imminent strong price pressures that will counteract the SNB’s plans, at least for now. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

sWhat are some of the analysts saying after the FOMC rate decision: Wells Fargo: “On balance, we remain confident that the FOMC will begin reducing the federal funds rate before the year is out. It will be a close call between one and two 25 basis point cuts.Morgan Stanley: “We continue to see three cuts

Repeats Macklem’s line that if inflation continues to ease, it is reasonable to expect further rate cuts and that they are taking it one meeting at a timeBOC is putting together an in-depth review of all exceptional actions taken during the pandemicThe bar for US to use QE again is very highUnwinding of QE through

The USDCAD has moved up and down since mid-April. Most of the trading has been between 1.36049 and 1.3803 (around 200 pips) in between 6100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart near 1.3685. Prior to the FOMC rate decision and after the US CPI data yesterday, the price move down to test

Are we due a turnaround Thursday? The dollar is keeping a little firmer now as we look towards European trading, after the sort of poker game from the events yesterday. It was a case of CPI giveth, Powell taketh away as markets had to adjust their convictions back and forth in reaction. It’s now time

While there are hundreds of crypto exchanges in the world, there is also a handful that is instantly recognisable. One of these is Coinbase, a major exchange in the industry and a popular pick for newbies and even more experienced investors. Regardless of which category you fall into, chances are that you might have considered

The US dollar has rebounded following the FOMC decision, erasing much of the post-CPI drop. After CPI, the Fed funds futures market priced in an 80% chance of a September rate cut and Powell has a (well deserved) reputation for being a dove. I strongly suspect that many market participants were expecting him to put

The term “trading” refers to the basic activity of buying and selling goods, services, or financial instruments with the aim of generating a profit from the difference in purchase and sale prices, exploiting market fluctuations, or securing needed resources. At its core, trading is an exchange – something of value is given in return for

Labour market now resembling conditions before the pandemicWe are creating jobs at a very rapid paceUnemployment rate has drifted up a little, labour market has become a little less hot; that is normal Not quite the same message as the Fed but I reckon the language will be similar once Powell & co. finally decide

The S&P index is now moved into negative territory and traits down -8.28 points or -0.15% at 5413. The low price reached 5412.02 so far. The NASDAQ index is holding onto a 24 point gain or 0.14% at 17632. The Dow Industrial Average averages down -265 points or -0.69% at 38447. The small-cap Russell 2000

The price of the EURUSD is extending to a new session low and is also moving below its 100 hour MA at 1.07726. The price is also moving away from its broken 200 day moving average at 1.07857. Those levels are now close risk levels for sellers. Stay below is more bearish. Earlier in the

The jobless rate held steady at 4%, but jobs added surged well ahead of expectations at up nearly 40K (30K expected). And, all full time. This is a good report, although questions over the veracity of these figures has been around for a long while now (seasonal adjustment questions) and they won’t go away with

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.3%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE -0.2%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.3% The changes are light after the slight rebound in the day before. European indices will still be facing up against the political angst in the region, so that is one factor to be wary of in the bigger picture. For now,

The opening bell has sounded, and the S&P and NASDAQ are off to a positive start after closing at record levels yesterday. The Dow industrial average is down. The PPI and weekly claims data was on the soft side leading to lower yields. However, there may be some concern that the Fed who was more

Fundamental Overview The USD yesterday was sold across the board following the soft US CPI report. The data made the market to price back in two cuts for this year. Later in the day though we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed that the Fed sees just

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has announced a shut down in trading in US dollars and euros due to new US sanctions. “Due to the introduction of restrictive measures by the United States against the Moscow Exchange Group, exchange trading and settlements of deliverable instruments in U.S. dollars and euros are suspended” The

Prior +3.3%HICP +3.8% vs +3.8% y/y prelimPrior +3.4% Core annual inflation is seen at 3.0%, keeping rather sticky last month. That is seen up from the 2.9% reading in April. It is just one month’s reading, so we’ll have to see how things move in the months ahead now. This article was written by Justin

The Fed whittled down to 1 cut in 2024 with the latest dot-plot. The caveat is the Fed members pre-submitted their dot-plot projections and although they had an opportunity to change those projections, many chose to keep them unchanged despite the better-than-expected CPI data today. So there may be a dovish tilt down the road

The May US CPI surprised to the downside yesterday making the market to fully price back in 2 rate cuts by the end of the year and expecting a more dovish Fed. Unfortunatelly, that wasn’t the case because the Fed’s projections and dot plot surprised on the hawkish side. Projections The Dot Plot showed just

According to UBS: “The data is going to need to change a lot of minds to bring people back to cutting in September, and start doing so in the next two months, in our view, to realistically put September on the table.” The inflation report yesterday certainly helps but there needs to be more of

S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% and Nasdaq futures up 0.6% ahead of the open. Broadcom shares are up 13% to lead the way after reporting better earnings and higher revenue guidance. Shares of Tesla are also up 7% with Elon Musk reporting that votes on his $56 billion pay package are leading by wide

It’s Fed-hangover day. It’s the day when real money takes in everything it heard from the FOMC and the CPI report and we start to see markets move. So far, the reaction to yesterday’s news has been indecisive and confused. The initial dollar selloff reversed, particularly in USD/JPY ahead of Friday’s BOJ decision. Stocks remain

Fundamental Overview The USD yesterday was sold across the board following the soft US CPI report. The data made the market to price back in two cuts for this year. Later in the day though we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed that the Fed sees just

In recent years, traders’ preferences have glided towards trade automation and advanced, real-time market analysis with a focus on personalised investment experiences. Automated financial processes, extra convenience, and smooth onboarding are also key drivers influencing traders’ choices. Against this backdrop, financial market players are faced with the challenge of constantly tailoring their offerings to meet

Prior +0.6%; revised to +0.5% The breakdown shows that the decline in intermediate goods (-0.4%) weighed on industrial output mostly. That is offset by slight gains in energy (+0.4%), capital goods (+0.7%), durable consumer goods (+0.3%), and non-durable consumer goods (+3.4%). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior week initial jobless claims 229 K Initial jobless claims 242K vs 220K estimate. Highest since August 20234-week moving average of initial jobless claims 227.00 versus 222.5KPrior week continuing claims 1.792M revised to 1.790M Continuing claims 1.820M vs 1.798M estimate. Highest since November 20214-week moving average continuing claims 1.797M vs 1.788M last weekThe largest increases

Headlines: Dollar keeps steadier so far on the day, awaits more US dataWhat now after the US CPI and Fed showdown yesterday?What has changed after the US CPI and FOMC?ECB’s Muller: It is too early to say when the next rate cut can happenECB’s Vasle: Possible for more rate cuts if baseline scenario holdsSpain May

The fact that EUR/USD is trading within a 15 pips range juts above 1.0800 speaks to how slow things are moving in the European session so far. The pair is near flat levels, holding just above the figure level with large option expiries also in play here. The confluence of the 100 (red line) and

The USD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins. Yesterday was a push-me, pull-me type of day fundamentally in the US with CPI coming in less than expectations (for the 2nd consecutive month), but later in the day, the FOMC rate decision was more hawkish as the

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, gold got a boost from the soft US CPI report as real yields and the US Dollar dropped following the data release. Unfortunately, the gains were erased later in the day as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision. Zooming out though, the Fed decision didn’t change much as

Prior was +2.2% y/yPPI final demand -0.2% vs +0.1% expected Prior was +0.5% PPI ex food/energy +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y expectedPPI ex food/energy 0.0% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior ex food/energy +0.5% The May decrease in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.8% decline in the index for final demand goods, which was the

This is a surprise as most had thought after CPI the FOMC dot plots would show two cuts. Here are how the projections compare to the last set of forecast from March 20: Median at 4.1% vs 3.9% prior Fed funds rate for end-20252024 GDP growth median +2.1 vs +2.1% prior2025 GDP +2.0% vs +2.0%

There are quite a number to take note of for the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered between 1.0775 to 1.0810. Given that price action is also meddling with the key daily moving averages at 1.0788-02 currently, the expiries might help to keep things stickier in

Only kidding. What a ludicrous statement. Justin had the remark here: The “crypto president” says he wants all remaining Bitcoin “to be made in the US” The thing it did remind me of, though, was another stupid time, back in the midst of the Greek debt crisis when euro coins for Greece were exchanged at

FedEx announcement on Wednesday: plans to cut between 1,700 and 2,000 jobs in Europepursues further cost reductions in a weak demand environment Developments at FedEx are often cited as a leading indicator of economies. I guess its not breaking news that the demand picture in Europe is not overly bright, though. Perhaps news such as

German DAX futures -0.4%UK FTSE futures -0.5% It comes as the mood music was dampened slightly after the Fed yesterday. US indices may have ended the day well higher but more than halved gains at the close. That is leading to the opening retreat here in Europe. S&P 500 futures are holding a little higher

The data for the jobs reports is here: Australian May unemployment rate 4.0% (vs. 4.0% expected) Its full of solid results, jobless rate unchanged, a beat on jobs added, participation still near its record high. Check out the link for the minor niggles, and add more ion the comments if you spot something. As for

We’re going to have low readings of y/y inflation drop out in H2Because of that, we get a slight rise in core inflation because of thatIf we get more readings like today, it would helpWe don’t have a high confidence in forecastsRegardless of the dots, everyone at the FOMC would say they’re ‘very data dependent’

Prior +0.4% Compared to the same month last year, wholesale prices are seen down 0.7%. That owes much to lower prices for chemical products, which were seen down 13.9% relative to a year ago. As for the monthly figure, the increase owes to higher wholesale prices for grain, unmanufactured tobacco, seeds and animal feeds (+3.4%).

I posted earlier on the move from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in response to new US sanctions: Moscow Exchange Group, exchange trading and settlements of deliverable instruments in U.S. dollars and euros are suspended The Bank has now added Hong Kong dollars to the list of FX not possible to trade. As

The TL;DR on this post here is that the next round of inflation data for Australia is due on Wednesday 26 June 2024 at 1130 Sydney timewhich is 0130 GMT and 2130 US Eastern time (on Tuesday 25 June) The jobs data earlier: Australian May unemployment rate 4.0% (vs. 4.0% expected) This was a good

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Fundamental Overview The USD yesterday was sold across the board following the soft US CPI report. The data made the market to price back in two cuts for this year. Later in the day though we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed that the Fed sees just

The USD has continued to correct higher but the gains are somewhat modest EURUSD is moving closer to the key 100 day MA at 1.08034. That will be a key barometer for both buyers and sellers going forward.USDJPY is through the 200-hour MA at 156.395 now but is now testing the 100 hour MA at

The Bank of Japan is meeting today and tomorrow. The BoJ’s Statement will be issued some time between 0230 and 0330 GMT on Friday June 14. The BoJ don’t have a firmly scheduled time for the release. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s press conference will begin at 0630 GMT, that is firmly scheduled. On Wednesday

Today, we don’t have market-moving releases in the European session, so it will mostly be about flows post-FOMC decision. In the American session we will get the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. We also hear from Fed’s Williams where the market will want to see if he backpedals on the dot plot

Williams is unlikely to say nothing at all re the FOMC meeting Wednesday – this should be worth listening out for. ICYMI: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: CPI gives and Powell takes 1600 GMT / 1200 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams moderates a discussion with Treasury Secretary Janet

Bloomberg (gated) have the report on a China state-owned commodities trader losses after a shipment of copper from Russia worth nearly $20 million went missing. Bloomberg citing unnamed sources. This is, naturally, raising questions over fraud. Main points: Wuchan Zhongda Group Co., a huge Chinese trader (sales of 580 bn yuan in 2023), bought 2,000

Also more rate cuts next year if disinflation process continuesBut there is a risk that the process could slow downWage momentum is still relatively strong Nothing out of the ordinary here. The ECB will continue to tout further rate cuts but are not going to outright commit to that just yet. We’ll have to wait

China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) says it’ll severely crack down on illegal FX activitiesto strengthen FX situation monitoring and policy reserveswill further improve management of FX reserveswill effectively safeguard stable operations of forex market, and the national economy, and financial stabilitywill steadily promote diversified asset allocation, ensure safety of liquidity and value preservation

This doesn’t tend to move USD/JPY upon release, but it does give a snapshot of Japanese business conditions. The Bank of Japan meeting concludes tomorrow. Earlier I outlined reasons for and against further tightening: The BoJ meet today and tomorrow – ‘reduction of bond buys’ chatter reignited on Wednesday While the results of this are

A note from Citi on oil on Wednesday (swamped by the CPI and Fed news), paints a not very pretty picture for oil bulls. forecast Brent crude to US$74/bbl in Q42025 opening at $65/bbl2025Q2 and Q3 to to $60 ending 2025 at $55price projections for WTI are around US$4/bbl lower Citing: sees global oil balances

ANZ comments and forecast on oil via Reuters report: “we expect OPEC’s supply policy to remain sensitive to (oil) market fundamentals””if demand fails to grow as they expect, they are likely to delay the phasing out of the group of eight’s voluntary 2.2mb/d cuts” for oil”the likelihood of (oil) prices pushing above $100/bbl for a

Below is a comparison of the May 2024 rate statement to the June 2024 rate statement: There is not a lot of changes. With the dot plot only projecting one cut, it will be interesting to hear the comments from Chair Powell. ————————————————————————– Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a

Data for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards. Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for the country. The m/m is worse than in April, but the y.y shows some improvement (still down y/y though). A bit

China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) May data: vehicle sales +11% m/m (prior -9.4%)but -1.9% y/y (prior -5.7%) Reasons for the m/m climb cited Government subsidies for replacing old cars with new ones: 7,000 yuan for updating fuel cars10,000 yuan for new energy vehicles (NEVs) Much more detail here if you are interested. Old pic, China

Backtesting multiple markets at the same time has several benefits. The short version is that you’ll save time and you can test based on market correlations. This process will be similar to backtesting multiple timeframes at the same time, but will require a couple of additional setups. Backtesting multiple markets is easy with an automated

When will the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut come? September? December? Its like Numberwang but with months. A note from U.S. economist at Jefferies after Wednesday’s CPI/Fedfest summed up trying to sift through Fed ‘guidance’: “Powell … wouldn’t be specific about a number of months of good data, or about specific changes in

1350 GMT / 0950 Eastern time: The Bank of Canada deputy governor Sharon Kozicki will give a speech at the Canadian Association for Business Economics in Ottawa on the bank’s use of exceptional monetary policy tools in the COVID-19 pandemic and the importance of public accountability 1700 GMT / 1300 Eastern time: Fireside Chat with

Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson Tells Reuters Global Markets Forum: Biden would attempt to raise taxes to offset some spendingTrump win would be better for growth but worse for bondsBiden win would be more favorable for labor supply and inflationTrump would shut down borders and possibly rekindle inflation concernsUnder Trump, energy, financials sectors, small caps

US May CPI 3.3% y/y versus 3.4% expectedFederal Reserve rate decision: Rates unchanged and dot plot shows one cut this yearPowell opening statement: Inflation has eased substantially but is still too highPowell Q&A: Regardless of dots, everyone at FOMC would say they’re ‘very data dependent’A word-by-word comparison of the May FOMC statement to the June

Info comes via Twitter, CommSec is CBA’s broking arm (a subsidiary of CBA): Its difficult to read too much into this given its volatility ComSec refer to. Its is a lumpy data series this year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Fed and Chair Powell may now be slow playing the policy, the stocks are not being detered. The NASDAQ index has reached a new high and currently trades up 367 points or 2.11% at 17709. The high price reached 17725.39.The S&P index is also higher by 65 points or 1.21% at 5440.12 after reaching

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: reiterates that there is a limit to how far the Bank can diverge on rates from the Fed – says not close to that limit The Bank of Canada cut rates at its previous meeting, beginning the process of ‘divergence’ with the Fed: Bank of Canada lowers rates to 4.75%

A take on the May inflation data from the US from head of multi-sector investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management: a good startFOMC will need to see more like it before they can commit to a September rate cut”While September may be on the table, today would have had to be the first of a

JPMorgan senior exec Rohrbaugh is Co-CEO for the Commercial & Investment Bank (CIB) as well a member of the firm’s Operating Committee: says the Fed is unlikely to cut interest ratesrate cuts are likely to be delayed beyond market expectations Probably right I reckon This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The USDs reaction has been a modest rise in the USD as the Fed chooses to forecast only 1 cut between now and the year’s end. EURUSD: The EURUSD has moved down toward the 50% midpoint of the June trading range at 1.08175. The price low reached 1.08145. The 100-day MA comes in lower at

June 12, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Ya’ll finished with the FOMC dots and such? I can’t promise you so much excitement from the Asian time zone! What we do have is the Australian May employment report, which will be eyed by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Bank is holding its cash rate at its high and seems inclined to do

The press conference begins at 2:30 pm ET and usually lasts around 45 minutes. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Recent indicators suggest economy still growing at a solid paceConsumer spending remains solidGDP has slowed but private domestic final purchases still growing at same pace as H2 2023Labor market has come into better balance but April and May jobs data still strongUnemployment rate ticked up but remains lowA broad set of indicators suggest we’ve returned

Dot plot leaned narrowly towards three rate cuts (two expected today)Median at 3.1% for end-20252024 GDP growth median +1.2%2025 GDP +1.9%Unemployment rate 4.6% in 2024 and 2025 (currently at 4.0%)2024 PCE inflation 2.5%2025 PCE inflation 2.1%2024 core PCE 2.6% 2025 core PCE 2.1% I don’t see big changes here but I’d expect upside risks to

The euro is chewing into its post-ECB losses at an accelerating pace. EUR/USD is up 109 pips to 1.0850 and at the highs of the day. The euro is benefiting from broad US dollar selling and position squaring in the dollar ahead of the FOMC decision at 2 pm. The market is growing more comfortable

Prior -5.2%Market index 208.5 vs 180.4 priorPurchase index 143.7 vs 132.3 priorRefinance index 554.7 vs 432.1 prior30-year mortgage rate 7.02% vs 7.07% prior That’s quite a rebound in mortgage applications in the past week, owing much to a surge higher in refinancing activity. The latter is seen jumping up to its highest since September 2022.

Headline measures: Prior y/y 3.4%m/m +0.2% versus +0.3% expected Prior m/m 0.3% Unrounded % vs +0.313% m/m prior Core measures: Core CPI m/m 0.2% versus +0.3% expected. Prior month 0.3%Unrounded core 0.163% vs +0.290% prior Core CPI y/y 3.4% versus 3.6% expected. Prior month was 3.6%Supercore m/m -0.045% vs +0.422% priorSupercore y/y +4.8% y/yShelter +0.4%

The AUDUSD has moved sharply higher after the better-than-expected US CPI data. The move to the upside has taken the price to the 0.67000 level. Just above that level is the May 2024 high at the same level. The dual level increases the levels importance going forward (and through the FOMC rate decision). Going forward

I think it’s always a good idea to re-read the FOMC statement before the new release. I’ve highlighted areas I will be watching for changes: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained

The Bank of Japan will consider gradually reducing its Japanese government bond holdings in Friday’s rate decision, according to a report from Nikkei. The BOJ purchased 5.8 trillion yen of JGBs in April and 5.7 trillion yen in May but ‘some within the BOJ’ are now discussing lowering that ‘in stages’, according to the report.

Prior was +1233KGasoline +2566K vs +0.891K expDistillates +881K vs +2147KRefinery utilization -0.4% vs -0.3% expected These are bearish numbers and are weighing modestly on oil prices, which were up $1.20 ahead of the release. Private numbers yesterday: Crude -2428KGasoline -2549KDistillates +972K This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USD moved lower after the tamer than expected US CPI data. The Fed now has 2 successive months of easing inflation and that is despite a 0.4% rise in shelter (if only that cracked). The data helped to push stocks higher in pre-market trading (S&P, Nasdaq are trading a new all-time highs). Yields are

The USDCAD moved lower on the better-than-expected CPI data, and the oil has now taken the price to the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the four hour chart between 1.3679 and 1.3684. So far that level has been able to hold support. It would take a move below that level to increase the

Markets are in a more tentative mood so far today and understandably so. It’s going to be a blockbuster day in US trading, so there won’t be much conviction at least in European trading. All eyes will be on the main events later, that being the US CPI report and the FOMC meeting decision. On

USD/JPY is down a full cent on the heels of the CPI report in response to a downside surprise in the May inflation reading. It’s part of a broad wave of US dollar selling across the board and a strong bid in bonds, led by the front end. The Fed funds market is now pricing

The Canadian dollar is underperforming today and at first the move is puzzling but at second looks shows why it makes sense. The loonie is up 0.5% today and that’s a good gain but it’s far short of the +1.2% for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The loonie is also underperforming the pound, yen

There are a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The ones for AUD/USD will matter more for the session ahead at least. They are layered between 0.6615 to 0.6630 and should keep price action more contained before we get to the main events later today. The US CPI report

The strong buyers at yesterday’s 10-year auction may have been the tell. Real money bought heavily despite a stronger non-farm payrolls report and CPI uncertainty. Today they’re certainly happy they did as they locked in 4.438% compared to cash rates at 4.288% now. Yields are down 11.5 bps in the aftermath of a CPI report

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +1.2%German DAX +1.5%UK FTSE 100 +1.0%French CAC +1.1%Italy MIB +1.4%Spain IBEX +0.7% Maybe a swing to the right isn’t so bad after all. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF has fallen after better US CPI data,but found support buyers against a key swing area between 0.8880 and 0.88916. The price also fell below the 200-day moving average at 0.8896. The price has since bounced higher. Going forward, it would take a move below the 0.8880 level to add to the bearish bias.

Australian Treasurer Chalmers remarks: visit of China’s Premier Li to Australia an important opportunitysays he sees underlying weakness in China’s economySays China’s economy won’t be recovering immediatelysays Australia’s economy is not going to experience stagflationcalls for quicker moderation of inflation Not sure what Chalmers “calls for quicker moderation of inflation” means. Inflation doesn’t listen to

Remarkable trading run: $200 to $190,000 in 4 Hours The exclusinve video interview above by ForexLive.com is not new, but is still SO GOOD, that we had to repost it. And, yes, it is real. The video above tells the story of a young trader who achieved an incredible feat: turning just $200 into $190,000

The EURUSD has moved sharply higher on the back of the CPI data. The move earlier today, found sellers initially ahead of the 200 hour MA at 1.09326. However, the corrective move lower also found support buyers against the 50% midpoint of the June trading range at 1.08175. That gave the buyers a go-ahead to

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger since last Friday following the US NFP report where the data surprised with solid jobs and wage growth. There were also negatives like the uptick in the unemployment rate, but all in all, we can say that it was a good report. The data triggered a hawkish repricing

US stock markets are set to open at a record high following a softer CPI that clears the way for the Federal Reserve to signal two rate cuts this year. S&P 500 futures are up 47 points, or 0.9% to a record high. Look for rate-sensitive trades to outperform today but I also suspect we

The data shows a big jump for PPI both m/m and y/y. If it translates into higher consumer level inflation the Bank of Japan will be happy. USD/JPY has dipped down to circa 157.08 as I am updating. — The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index

He also reaffirms that he will not resign if his faction does not come out as the victors in the upcoming snap election. As a reminder, the first round of voting is set for 30 June. Then, the second round of voting will take place on 7 July. If Le Pen’s faction is the winner

The US CPI data for the month of May came in softer than expected with the quarter CPI Ed 0.2% versus 0.3%. The headline CPI feminine 0.0% versus 0.1%.. The YoY for core was at 3.4% (the lowest level since April 2021). The headline came in at 3.3% vs 3.4% estimate (unchanged) The market is

The dollar bulls are showing some angst ahead of CPI. Generally that reveals the bias in the market or which side is more crowded. US dollar bulls may be covering on fears of a softer number or at least enough softer details to show that broad prices are coming down. Combine that with Powell’s bias

63 of 65 economists expect BOE to cut rates starting AugustAll economists polled expect there to be no change to rates later this month35 of 65 economists see two rate cuts by the BOE for this year24 of 65 economists see three rate cuts by the BOE for this yearOnly 3 of 65 economists anticipate

UBS reiterated their positive view on gold – buy dipsUS CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates to knowRecapping the inflation data from Japan earlier- higher but might slow BOJ rate hikesECB speakers on Wednesday include Schnabel, Villeroy, Vujcic, de GuindosChina May CPI +0.3% y/y (expected +0.4%) and PPI -1.4% y/y (expected -1.5%)China is

Fundamental Overview Despite the recent OPEC+ extension of the voluntary output cuts, Crude oil sold off as the price broke the support of the May range. The drop though might have been just technical as the bearish momentum picked up on the breakout. The price eventually bottomed around the $73 region and erased all the

The major US Stock indices are moving to the upside after the better-than-expected US CPI data. The gains in the three major indices are led by the NASDAQ index up 1.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 is surging by 2.60%. A snapshot of the market 10 minutes into the open is is showing: Dow Industrial Average

As the North American session begins, the CHF is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest of the major currencies. The USD is mostly lower (but modestly) with declines vs all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY ahead of the US CPI and the Federal Reserve rate decision. The US CPI

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected