The AUDUSD this week traded down to test a swing area between 0.6575 and 0.6590. The subsequent move to the upside then tested the high of a swing area between 0.6677 and 0.66896 (see the chart below). Staying with the confines of the “red box” where most of the trading has taken place over the […]

Prior was 54.8Manufacturing vs 51.0 expectedPrior manufacturing was 51.3 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The responsibility lies entirely with the EU sideHopes that EU would meet China halfway and handle differences through dialogue For some context, the EU launched five new anti-dumping investigations against China in May. That was seen totaling to roughly $1.71 billion. And they are following that up with proposed tariffs on Chinese electric cars. If

Headlines: Japanese yen stays in focus as inflation data slows further in MayEuro, yields dip on softer French and German PMI readingsFrance June flash services PMI 48.8 vs 50.0 expectedGermany June flash manufacturing PMI 43.4 vs 46.4 expectedEurozone June flash services PMI 52.6 vs 53.5 expectedUK June flash services PMI 51.2 vs 53.0 expectedUK May

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -2.3%; revised to -1.8%Retail sales +1.3% vs -0.9% y/y expectedPrior -2.7%; revised to -2.3%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +2.9% vs +1.3% m/m expectedPrior -2.0%; revised to -1.4%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +1.2% vs -0.8% y/y expectedPrior -3.0%; revised to -2.5% After many months of disappointment, UK retail sales finally comes up with a beat

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0650-60 and the 1.0700 mark. Both should play the role in limiting any material downside before the expiries roll off later today. But given how price action has been behaving, the one at

A note via JP Morgan says less short selling, combined with short covering, has been a factor fuelling the run for stocks, a “steady flow of support”. JPM nominate one support for the US equity market over the past 12 months has originated from a fall in short interest on the two biggest equity ETFs,

Japanese economy is recovering moderately, albeit with some weak signsUnderlying inflation likely to gradually accelerateYet to decide on specifics of bond tapering planBut size of reduction in bond purchases likely to be significant For now, it seems like only the bond taper is on the cards for July. There’s no mention of any follow up

Canada kicks of the final trading day of the week with retail sales and PPI data. Then at 9:45 am ET, we get the US manufacturing and services flash PMIs from S&P Global. At 10 am ET, we get existing home sales and at 1 pm ET, there’s 2-year Treasury auction. There are no Fed

The USDJPY has lifted back to the upside and is back above the 159.00 level after the stronger-than-expected S&P/global manufacturing and services index flash data. The high price traded up to 159.206. That gets it to 100 pips short of the 2024 high price at 160.208. That I was the highest level going back to

As the NA session begins the NZD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. The USD is mixed. In Japan all hands are on deck to slow the JPYs fall. Overnight,Japan’s officials, including Masato Kanda, Finance Minister Suzuki, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi, emphasized the need for stable foreign exchange (FX) levels and

RBC is out with its monthly review of Canadian credit card spending. As the nation’s largest bank, the number should offer clues on the strength of the Canadian consumer. The report notes that momentum in discretionary purchases faded in May after a rise in April. restaurant sales edged slightly lower in May and were not

Prior 49.3Manufacturing PMI 45.3 vs 46.8 expectedPrior 46.4Composite PMI 48.2 vs 49.5 expectedPrior 48.9 The readings above are a further setback to the French economy after the softer ones in May already. A renewed downturn in new orders in particular is the main drag for the month. Meanwhile, employment conditions eased to a three-month low

Prior month -0.6%Leading index for May -0.5% versus -0.3% estimate. There have only been one positive reading since April 2022. The data will predict the recession one day. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It was always going to be a race against time for the BOJ in the first half of this year. And the inflation data today reaffirms that sentiment, with prices converging further towards the pivotal 2% mark. Where art thou inflation? The headache for the BOJ continues as such. They managed to squeeze in a

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly is speaking as part of a panel: “The Transformative Power of AI: How is Technology Changing Our Lives?” in coordination with Syracuse University and the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs. The topic doesn’t sound like there will be anything from here on the economy

The July Bank of Canada decision is shifting more-decisively towards a rate cut after today’s softer retail sales and PPI numbers. The market is now pricing in a 73% chance of a back-to-back cut. Retail sales matched the +0.7% estimate for April but the May advance report showed a 0.6% decline and the March reading

In the kickstart video for June 21, I take a look at the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective and explain what the bias is, what the risks are, and what the targets are for each. The EURUSD corrected up to tested 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April low at

Prior 52.9Manufacturing PMI 51.4 vs 51.3 expectedPrior 51.2Composite PMI 51.7 vs 53.1 expectedPrior 53.0 Election jitters starting to creep in? The headline reading is a 7-month low and that is weighing on the overall UK business activity for June. The only bright side is that manufacturing conditions are seen improving further, with the reading there

Prior month 1.5% revised to 1.4%Producer Prices MoM 0.0% vs 0.5% estimateProducer prices YoY 1.8 % vs 1.4% last month revised to 1.3%. This was the biggest year on year increase since January 2023.Raw material prices MoM -1.0% vs 5.5% last month revised to 5.3%. Excluding accrued energy products, the RMPI rose 2.4%Raw material prices

The major US indices are trading little changed ahead of the flash PMI data and the existing home sales. Dow Industrial Average averages up 2.0 points or 0.01% at 39141S&P is down -6.5 points or -0.13% at 5466.06Nasdaq is down -15.48 points or -0.09% at 17706.37 The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading down -4.51 points

US stock futures are fractionally lower but all eyes are on Nvidia today as we hit quad witching. Shares are down 2.9% in the premarket after hitting a record early yesterday and then reversing to finish 3% lower. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Swiss National Bank cut rates by 25 basis points yesterday and that reversed the downward bias that the USDCHF was experiencing going into the rate decision. The subsequent move higher move back above the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 2023 low at 0.8883, a swing area between 0.8881 and 0.8892,

Earlier in the session we had Kanda: Japan’s Kanda says ready to take action if excessive FX move seen Hayashi now: Addition of Japan to the US currency monitoring list does not mean that Japan’s foreign exchange policy is a problemStable forex levels are desirableImportant that forex rates reflect fundamentalsWill continue to closely monitor moves

I’m not sure we’ll get too much of impact from this: 1030 GMT / 0630 Bank of Spain Deputy Governor Margarita Delgado to speak at an event in Santander This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Here are the changes among key dollar pairs on the week as we look to the final day of US trading later: EUR/USD: -0.1%USD/JPY: +0.9%GBP/USD: -0.2%USD/CHF: +0.3%USD/CAD: -0.3%AUD/USD: +0.6%NZD/USD: -0.2% Outside of the Japanese yen and perhaps arguably the aussie, the changes on the week are rather insignificant thus far. The mid-week break also didn’t

Tune in Monday for the Bank of Japan Summary of its June meetingBank of Spain Deputy Governor speaking FridayJapan will resume subsidies for utilites and continue with gasoline subsidiesEx-Fed Bullard says he expects a slow pace of rate cuts from the FOMCNorth Korean soldiers crossed into South Korea again, the third time this month (so

South Korean media (Yonhap) report on the third crossing of North Korean troops into South Korea so far in June. Both previous crossings were said to be unintentional, as was this third. Hard to believe really. North Korean troops working in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) briefly crossed the border into the Southcrossed the Military Demarcation

Preliminary Judo Bank S&P Australian Manufacturing PMI 47.5 prior 49.7 Services 51.0 prior 52.5 Composite 50.5 prior 52.1 Wow, what an awful set of numbers. Early 2024 was promising but that’s fallen in a heap now. Warren Hogan, Chief Economic Advisor at Judo Bank this in brief on the employment and inflation aspects: “The composite

There should be leaks and reports to follow after that on how much will the BOJ scale back on their supposed bond purchases. So, keep an eye out for that. The central bank is then expected to officially announce that at their next policy meeting decision on 31 July. This article was written by Justin

Prior 53.2Manufacturing PMI 45.6 vs 47.9 expectedPrior 47.3Composite PMI 50.8 vs 52.5 expectedPrior 52.2 Business activity in the euro area slows sharply towards the end of Q2, with manufacturing continuing to prove to be a drag. The output index there is seen slumping to a six-month low. Meanwhile, the services sector reading also eased but

Prior 45.4Services PMI 53.5 vs 54.4 expectedPrior 54.2Composite PMI 50.6 vs 52.7 expectedPrior 52.4 The euro has dipped to fresh lows on the day amid the softer-than-expected readings in France and now Germany. EUR/USD is down from 1.0705 earlier to 1.0675 on the day. Just take note of large option expiries here at 1.0650-60 that

US Treasury Secretary Yellen: crytocurrency remains a small part of financing for Fentanyl trafficking This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Leading lights from the world of online trading gathered at Columbia Beach, Limassol, Cyprus to celebrate the best Brokers and B2B brands over the past 12 months as part of the official UF AWARDS Global 2024. The winning companies were congratulated in a special ceremony on June 20, organised by Ultimate Fintech, with each award

EUR/USD has fallen from 1.0705 to 1.0670 levels on the day, following the softer PMI reports from France and Germany. It reinforces the notion that the economic resilience in Q1 may be a short-lived one. And this may put pressure on the ECB to cut rates sooner rather than later in Q3 this year. Looking

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The ‘core-core’ rate of inflation in May (core-core is that excluding food and energy, it’s the closest to the US measure of core inflation) has shown its slowest rise since September 2022. The ‘core’ rate, which excludes fresh food, jumped from April though. This will keep the prospect of the BoJ rate hike alive. A

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Japan finance minister Suzuki: To visit Seoul on June 25 to meet with s. Korean counterpartWill communicate closely with US, other countries on FX based on G7 agreement that excessive, disorderly fx moves could hurt economiesDon’t think US sees Japan’s fx policy as problematic Suzuki joins in with earlier verbal intervention efforts today: Japan’s Kanda

Trump news crossing on immigration policy If you graduate from a college you should get automatically as part of your diploma a green card to be able to stay in United States Info comes via Reuters. I’m no politics expert but amongst those looking for greater US productivity growth this is going to be a

Slower expansion for Japanese manufacturing expanded for a second straight monthnew orders weakened from May and cost pressures intensified, rising faster than in June Flash services PMI: 49.8 in June from 53.8 in May Composite 50.0 prior 52.6 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Masato Kanda is vice-minister for international affairs at Japan’s Ministry of Finance. He is the official who will instruct the BOJ to intervene, when he judges it necessary, and is often referred to as Japan’s ‘top currency diplomat’. US exchange rate list assessed against mechanical criteriaReady to take actions if excess fx move seenFx intervention

The GBPUSD fell earlier today. The BOE kept their policy rate unchanged today. However, as Justin pointed out in his posts after the decision, the Bank of England’s latest statement includes subtle dovish hints suggesting potential rate cuts in the near future. In the forward guidance, the BOE added, “As part of the August forecast

US Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke On Thursday. In her remarks were comments on inflation and China. Yellen firmly stepping into election territory here: Biden understands struggles of American households with higher costs for housing, basic necessitiesBiden wants to cut taxes for hardworking families through expansion of child tax creditBiden has made affordability a top priority

USD/CNH and USD/CNY have risen again overnight. The background to the weaker yuan is that the People’s Bank of China has loosened up on dampening USD/CNY, we had a warning of this on Monday: HSBC expect the USD/CNY reference rate to drift higher (yuan weaker) And since then the Bank have indeed allowed the CNY

US May housing starts 1.277m vs 1.370m expectedUS initial jobless claims 238K vs 235k estimateUS June Philly Fed +1.3 vs +5.0 expectedUS sells 5-year TIPS at 2.050%France election poll: National Rally leading, Macron lags behindWhite House’s Brainard: There is every reason to expect further inflation progressEIA weekly crude oil inventories -2547K vs -2200K expectedAtlanta Fed

Bank of America forecasts for EUR/USD: 1.12 at the end of 20241.17 at the end of 2025 (from previously projecting 1.20)1.20 in 2026 BoA citing: Federal Reserve to cut, but more gradually than previously thoughtSay that with persistent inflation it’ll be a shallow easing cycle Despite the timing of its EUR/USD forecast B of A

This from the US Treasury twice yearly currency manipulation report Found that no major US trading partner manipulated currency to gain unfair trade advantage in four quarters through December 2023Found no major trading partner met criteria for enhanced analysis in four quarters ending December 2023Monitoring list of trading partners whose currency practices ‘merit close attention’

Ontario Premier Doug Ford was in the news on Thursday calling on the federal government to place a 100% tariff on electric vehicles manufactured in China. Ford warned that not doing so places jobs at “risk” in Ontario. – Ford may have been playing a bit of politics, the Canadian govmt has such tariffs under

The Nasdaq string of up days is over at 7-days. Over that 7-days, the price has closed at record levels each day. The decline today is the worst day since May 30. Meanwhile, the Dow rose for the 3rd day in a row with a solid gain of 300 points. It was its strongest day

Tokyo inflation data the focus. USD/JPY has continued its rise, this gave it a little tailwind yesterday: Japan survey of firms – very few believe wage growth quicker than inflation achievable But it was heading higher regardless. Evan Kanda couldn’t stop it: Japan top currency diplomat says there is no limit to FX intervention resources

Thursday was the sixth-consecutive day of Japanese yen selling and it ended with a flourish. It left the US dollar higher by 83 pips against the yen to 158.91. That’s only higher than a few hours on April 29 when the pair broke 160.00 in a rout before the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervened in

Crude oil for August settled up $0.58 at $81.29. That’s up $0.58 or 0.71% Today, EIA weekly inventory data showed Crude oil stocks had a drawdown of-2.547M versus expectations of a drawdown of -2.200 million barrelsGasoline stocks had a surprise drawdown of -2.280 million versus expectations of a build of 0.620 million barrelsDistilates showed a

Bank of America is out with a survey of wealthy investors but they divided them into two cohorts: Ages 21-43 and age 44+. The results are shockingly different. Young investors see real estate and crypto as top opportunities, while U.S. stocks rank lowest. A striking 72% of them believe it’s impossible to achieve above-average returns

Swiss franc has significantly increased in past few weeksUnderlying inflation pressure has decreasedWe will continue to monitor developments closely, adjust policy if necessaryWilling to be active in foreign exchange markets as necessary The comment on the franc having “significantly increased” does change things up a bit. That perhaps says they are comfortable with the currency

According to a Harris interactive poll on the France election: Far-right National Rally (RN) party seen leading first round of French Parliament election with 220-250 seats.Left Wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition seen in second place of French election with 135-165 seats.Macron’s ‘Together’ centrist camp seen in third place of French election with 95-130 seats.Conservative

In the bigger picture, gold is very much still in a consolidative mood. The price action this week is supported by the news that central banks are still intending to bolster their gold reserves in the long run. That is keeping slightly more underpinned in the last few sessions. However, the chart still outlines a

The AUDUSD earlier this week tested the low of what has been a fairly confined trading range between 0.6575 AND 0.66896 (see red box on the chart below), and then tested the high of that swing area both yesterday and today. So traders continue to trade the range by leaning on the downside and on

This data was delayed because of the US holiday yesterday. WTI crude oil was trading 60-cents higher ahead of the release. The consensus is: Prior was +3730K Gasoline -2280K vs +620K expectedDistillates -1726K vs +261K expectedProduction unchanged at 13.2 mbpdRefinery utilization -1.5% vs +0.1% expected Tuesday’s API reading was surprisingly bearish, though the market has

The unchanged rates were widely expected after the MLF was unchanged earlier this week: People’s Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%) The hold today is despite subdued economic data and widespread expectations that the Bank will be forced to cut rates at some stage. A critical constraint on the

The broader US stock indices have now moved into negative territory and traded two new session lows. The S&P is down -18 points are -0.33% at 5469. The NASDAQ and is down -133 pointer -0.74% at 17729. Nvidia shares are now negative by $2.26 or -1.59% $133.38.Apple shares are down by $4.45 or -2.08% at

The American consumer isn’t tapped out yet. United Airlines said it expects more than 5 million Americans to fly over the July 4 holiday, in what would be a record for travel in the period. That’s a good sign for the health of consumer wallets and for jet fuel demand. UAL also says it expects

Fundamental Overview The USD has been generally weaker this week after the strength seen last week due to some risk off sentiment. In fact, it looks like it’s just sentiment that’s been driving the market recently as fundamentally the soft US inflation figures just consolidated the market’s expectation of two cuts for this year despite

Prior was 2.242% This is 2.4 bps below the when-issued yield. The strong auctions are beginning to add up. The bond market took notice of this auction with Treasury yields ticking lower across the curve to stem some of today’s rise. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Gold has been ranging near a key level as the market awaits a catalyst or key technical breakouts to find some momentum. The bullish bias remains intact though as we got some very good inflation data from the CPI and PPI last week which should support gold in the bigger picture as it

USD/JPY has risen for six straight trading days and is up another 64 pips today to the highest levels since the April 28 spike higher and intervention. A close here would be the highest since 1990. There are about Japanese banks after Norinchukin Bank said it will sell $63 billion of sovereign bonds, mostly Treasuries

The USDJPY is extending to a new high for the day. The move higher today took the price above the swing highs from earlier this week and last Friday near 158.248. After reaching a high at 158.46. The price rotated back lower, tested the break level at 158.248 and found support buyers (red numbered circle

Closing changes in the main European bourses: Stoxx 600 +0.8%German DAX +0.9%UK FTSE 100 +0.7%French CAC +1.3%Italy MIB +1.4%Spain IBEX +0.9% The volume has come down in European politics and there have been dip buyers for most of the week in French stocks. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has moved lower in trading today, and in the price process moved back below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (at 1.37079 currently – blue line on the chart below). The price has moved down to test the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.3687. The 38.2% of the

Wage growth might still be a bit too high to get back to 2% right now The market is pricing in 47 bps in cuts before year end. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Gold is trading at the highest since the June 7 drop. The chart looked to be teeing up a a head-and-shoulders top but the bulls have fought back and a rise above $2387 would help to invalidate it. The turn this week may have come after a World Gold Council survey showing that 29% of

As the North American session begins the AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The USD is mostly stronger with declines only vs the AUD. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 1.25% from the previous 1.50%. This decision, announced as

The USDCHF moved lower earlier this week, breaking below its 200 day moving average and 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 2023 low. Those levels come in at 0.88958 and 0.8883 respectively. Today, the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 25 basis points which was a tossup. That sent the USDCHF higher

Introduction Today’s stock market presents a dynamic ballet of sector performances, signified by prominent growth in tech and healthcare amidst minor slumps in consumer electronics. Our deep dive into the heatmap shows how different sectors tell their own stories, shaping investor sentiment and future market endeavors. Tech Triumphs, Semiconductor Woes The Tech sector shows a

Prior +0.2% Slight delay in the release by the source. If you strip out energy prices, producer prices were actually higher by 0.3% compared to April. The breakdown shows that an increase in prices for intermediate goods (+0.3%), capital goods (+0.2%), and non-durable consumer goods (+0.1%). That is offset by a decline in energy prices

The flow funds in the US stock market has shifted. Earlier the Dow was lower, the NASDAQ was higher, the S&P was in the middle. Currently the Dow Industrial Average average is higher, the S&P is near unchanged and the NASDAQ has turned into negative territory. The NASDAQ index has closed higher for seven consecutive

There is not enough progress on healthcare and housing pricesThe aberrations in Q1 inflation haven’t stretched into Q2 I take these comments with a grain of salt, as she’s not exactly an unbiased voice now. However the comment about the ‘aberration’ in particular shows how some in the Fed are seeing inflation, or how they

What is a catalyst? A trading catalyst is anything that causes a market reaction. The most common catalysts come from the economic data. In fact, you may have seen countless times the market reacting to an economic report and sometimes the moves can be very large. Types of catalysts There are generally two types of

US Q1 current account -237.6B vs. -206.4B expected and -221.8B prior (revised from -194.8B). This is not a market moving report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

We’re counting down the final days of Q2 but we’re still a long ways away from the first reading on GDP. Still, the tracking numbers from the Atlanta Fed are strong right now and that could keep the Fed on the sidelines in September. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual

In the kickstart video for June 20, 2024, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. EURUSD: The EURUSD held resistance against the 200 hour MA yesterday and again today. That moving average currently comes in at 1.0743. Stay below that level keeps the sellers more

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.2% This follows the sluggish showing yesterday with French stocks in particular sliding back. For today, the overall mood is a better one with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.3% after the mid-week break. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expectedAugust back in the picture for the BOE?SNB cuts key policy rate by 25 bps to 1.25% from 1.50% previouslySNB chairman Jordan: FX intervention can be in both directionsSwiss franc falls as SNB continues with rate cutsECB’s Knot: Optimal policy path is broadly in line with

Prior 1.50%Ready to intervene in FX market if needed and as necessaryA renewed increase in geopolitical tensions could result in weaker global activityAble to maintain appropriate monetary conditions as suchWill adjust monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium-termInflation in Switzerland is currently being driven

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

There has been appreciation in the Swiss francThat has an impact on monetary conditionsExchange rate plays a very important role as it influences inflation outlookWill adjust policy rate to ensure inflation stays in the range of price stability The fact that he continues to allude to the franc having appreciated should be a signal that

There are signs of cyclical weakening in the global economy but OPEC+ appears to have countered it by keeping production curtailed. US producers also haven’t rushed to fill the gap as they will have to contend with OPEC’s plan to slowly re-introduce barrels in the year ahead. That’s led to an impressive climb in oil

Good luck to the folks in Ecuador! Minister Roberto Luque: a transmission line failure caused a “cascade disconnection” “We are concentrating all our efforts on resolving the problem as quickly as possible” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It looks like Barkin may have the most interesting comments given the topic. Times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format 1245/0845 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat before the Michigan Bankers Association Annual Conference From Kashkari earlier: Fed’s Kashkari says its reasonable that rate cut could come

Prior week 242KInitial jobless claims 238K vs 235K estimate4-week moving averege 232.75K vs 227.25K last weekContinuing Claims 1.828M vs 1.805M estimatePrior week continuing claims 1.820M revised to 1.813M4-week Moving average for continuing claims 1.806M vs 1.795M last week The claims data is for the survey week and as such is higher than the prior month.

Consumer confidence -14.0 vs. -13.6 expected and -14.3 prior. This is not a market moving report but consumer confidence has been gradually improving since the lows set in 2022. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Even if this was the “expected” decision, the feel of the market was that it was closer to a coin flip. That explains the reaction in the Swiss franc, with the SNB also sticking with a more dovish stance overall. The Swiss central bank signaled that inflation is easing further, having lowered their projections on

The major US stock indices are trading mixed nine minutes into the opening, with all three indices lower than premarket levels. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow Industrial Average down -20.90 points or -0.05% at 38813.97 S&P index is trading up +10. or or +0.18% at 5497.03. NASDAQ and is trading up 48.03

Fundamental Overview The USD has been generally weaker this week after the strength seen last week due to some risk off sentiment. In fact, it looks like it’s just sentiment that’s been driving the market recently as the soft US inflation figures just consolidated the market’s expectation of two cuts for this year despite a

Earlier this week, Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company as it crossed a $3.3 trillion valuation. It’s up 82% from the April 19 low in what’s the greatest increase in wealth in a single stock in the history of markets. It truly is a marvel and for a company that doesn’t even manufacture the

Surface temperatures are above average in the west-central Pacific oceanLa Nina watch now in effect, favored to develop during July-Sept (65% chance) and persist into winter 2024-25Temp outlook favors enhanced probabilities of above normal temp reaching 60-70% are found over the Gulf coast We are just out of the warmer El Nino phase and now

There is a hiccup on the data calendar, this was out earlier in the week so just clarifying that: Westpac McDermott Miller consumer sentiment survey for the second quarter of 2024 — You’ll not next up from NZ is the economic growth data for Q1, quickie preview here, along with another for the PBOC rate

Prior was 1.360mBuilding permits vs 1.450m expected This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +4.5Employment: -2.5 vs -10.7 priorNew orders: -2.2 vs +12.2 priorPrices paid: +22.5 vs +23.0 priorPrices received: vs +5.5 priorShipments: vs +19.1 priorUnfilled orders: vs +0.8 priorDelivery times: vs -9.4 priorInventories: vs -8.9 priorAvg employee workweek: vs -18.7 prior The prior reading was a jump to a two-year high so a retracement here isn’t

There is strong case for using projection meetings to recalibrate policy stanceHigh uncertainty warrants a data-dependent approachDisinflation process remains bumpyNot all the signs are green yet when it comes to core inflationRecent shift in market expectations shows that the road to meet inflation target is bumpyWe can look through small deviations from target as long

The excitement around artificial intelligence is beginning to resemble the California gold rush; only now are companies, not individuals, chasing the new El Dorado. Representatives of all industries seem determined to incorporate the latest technology into their operations to increase productivity and reduce costs. Merchants find themselves in a situation similar to that of 150

Fundamental Overview The USD has been generally weaker this week after the strength seen last week due to some risk off sentiment. In fact, it looks like it’s just sentiment that’s been driving the market recently as fundamentally the soft US inflation figures just consolidated the market’s expectation of two cuts for this year despite

On the optimistic change, Ifo says that: “The German economy is slowly working its way out of the crisis. New hope is now emerging. The second half of 2024 should be significantly better than the first. As the year progresses, the purchasing power of private households should continue to gain strength and the overall economic

Reuters Japan corporate survey: Only 7% of Japanese companies believe PM Kishida’s pledge to have wages grow faster than inflation is achievable 61% of japanese companies see no need for govt to take countermeasures against China’s excess production capacity That 7% on wage rises is troubling for the Bank of Japan’s inflation goal – the

Will thoroughly respond to excessive FX movesFX market is determined by various factors, including interest rate differentialsRecent FX intervention was quiet effective in responding to speculators A bit of verbal jawboning there as USD/JPY continues to trickle higher since last week. The pair is holding just above 158.00 now, not much changed from before the

Bloomberg have a piece up: Hedge Fund Talent Schools Are Looking for the Perfect Trader Bloomberg is gated but if you can access it its an interesting read. The birth of these programs captures a historic change in this $4.3 trillion industry — as it moves on from the era of wildly competitive one-offs like

Nomura is expecting an on hold decision from the Bank of England today, GBP won’t be movedFederal Reserve speakers Thursday include Kashkari, Barkin, DalyHedge fund boot camp – Citadel internship pays US$19K a monthOffshore yuan at its lowest since November last year as the PBOC relaxes its grip on CNYPBOC Loan Prime Rates (LPR) remain

I posted earlier in the week the good info from HSBC on the PBOC allowing the onshore yuan to weaken a little: HSBC expect the USD/CNY reference rate to drift higher (yuan weaker) Which its done, setting the CNY at its lowest since November 2023 today: PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1192 (vs.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 mark. That will once again keep price action more contained, with downside momentum likely to meet a floor at the figure level until the expiries roll off later. Then, there is

There were a couple of dovish hints, subtle of course, put out by the BOE in their rate statement today. Let’s dive straight into it. Firstly, they introduced this passage to the forward guidance: “As part of the August forecast round, members of the Committee will consider all of the information available and how this

Prior 5.25%Bank rate vote 7-0-2 vs 7-0-2 expected (Dhingra, Ramsden voted to cut by 25 bps)For some policymakers, decision today was “finely balanced”That is because higher-than-expected services inflation reflected factors that would not push up medium-term inflationLabour market continues to loosen but remains relatively tight by historical standardsKey indicators of inflation persistence continue to moderate,

The key highlights on the agenda today are central bank decisions featuring the SNB and BOE. They will round off the central bank bonanza in June, but the decisions might end up being non-events for the most part. I’ll get to that in a bit. But for now, FX is keeping rather muted as things

New Zealand economic growth data for the first quarter of 2024 – a growing economy again, NZ exits recession. +0.2% q/q expected +0.1%, prior -0.1% +0.3% y/y expected +0.2%, prior -0.3% A beat for the q/q and y/y. NZD/USD popped on the data release: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Solciety, a prominent player in the PolitiFi meme coin sector, has successfully raised over $300,000 within the first 48 hours of its presale, which commenced at 14:00 UTC on 18th June. The presale is scheduled to run for 30 days, concluding on 18th July. The presale success aligns with the heightened interest in PolitiFi tokens

The PBOC is expeted to hold its benchmark one and five year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged today. Current LPR rates are: 3.45% for the one year3.95% for the five year The expected hold is despite subdued economic data and widespread expectations that the Bank will be forced to cut rates at some stage. A

Data earlier today brought the welcome news that New Zealand’s economy grew in the first quarter of 2024: NZ exited recession as the economy grew The data came in stronger than expected: New Zealand Q1 GDP +0.2% q/q (expected +0.1%) The latest forecasts from the RBNZ had projected 0.2% growth for the first quarter. The

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

“Well duh, a good backtesting results is when you make 1,000,000% return.” That’s what many new traders think and that’s why over 90% of traders fail. If you want to become a successful trader, you’re going to have to learn how properly evaluate a trading strategy and adjust your perception of what is a good

While futures are open the cash market is, of course, closed. NYSE and Nasdaq open for regular trading hours at 9.30am US Eastern time as normal. Thursday, 20 June and Friday, 21 June 2024 are normal trading days. — Wednesday June 19 was the holiday – hope you all had a great celebration. This article

After yesterday’s snoozefest, today we have a much livelier day as we get two major central bank policy decisions and the US Jobless Claims figures. We will also have the US Housing Starts and Building Permits data released at the same time of the Jobless Claims, but the market will likely pay more attention to

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB +0.2% This comes with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.3% on the day currently. It is still early in the day though, with the SNB and BOE policy decisions still coming up. Then after, there is the US weekly jobless claims data

Prior CHF 4.32 billion; revised to CHF 4.34 billion The Swiss trade surplus expanded in May as exports grew by 0.6% while imports fell by 6.5% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

A piece in Dow Jones / Markt Watch (gated). “Froth forecasts” compiled by State Street Associates (based on research by Harvard University professor Robin Greenwood): probability of a 40% decline at some point over the next two years — the operational definition of a crash that they use — is calculated to be 18%, lower

Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl has outlined plans aimed at improving returns on its foreign-currency reserves. Over the next five years he plans to: boost the share of equity holdings in reserves to 30%boost gold holdings from currently around 40 metric tones to 100 Says the bank won’t try to time the market in

New Zealand economic growth (or contraction) data is due at 2245 GMT (1745 US Eastern time). New Zealand is already in recession (consecutive quarters of economic contraction), a negative today would extend it. New Zealand inflation is 4% y/y way above target. The RBNZ has held rates at 5.5% at seven consecutive meetings and another

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee is meeting on Thursday, 20 June 2024. Times below are GMT, the BoE announcement is due at 1100 GMT, which is 0700 US Eastern time (as a ps. the SNB decision is due at at 0730 GMT / 0330 US Eastern time). This snapshot from the ForexLive economic

BOC Minutes: Governing Council considered waiting until July to cut ratesUS June NAHB housing market index 43 vs 45 priorCanada’s population continues to surge as it hits 41 millionECB’s Centeno: ECB will cut if disinflation process continuesCanada May Teranet house price index +0.5% m/mUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 14 June +0.9% vs +15.6% prior Markets:

I posted earlier in the week a useful piece from analysts at HSBC tipping the People’s Bank of China would allow the USD/CNY reference rate to rise: HSBC expect the USD/CNY reference rate to drift higher (yuan weaker) This indeed looks to have been the case so far, with the PBOC easing back on the

The pound is flat today at 1.2715 in part because the US is on holiday but there was some minor selling earlier after a softer UK CPI print. Inflation was up 0.3% m/m compared to 0.4% expected but it was deeper within the report there was trouble as services inflation was hotter than anticipated. Deutche

The Hong Kong exchange has, for decades, halted trade during severe weather conditions, such as typhoons. Currently, trading on the exchange is halted if the Hong Kong Observatory posts a typhoon signal no. 8 and above. In a move to preserve its status as a financial hub, and compete with Shanghai and Shenzen, Hong Kong

Reminder – PBOC monetary policy interest rate decision due Wednesday evening, US timeJapan’s Ministry of Finance proposes selling shorter term debt as the BOJ eyes rate hikeChina’s FX regulator says Will prevent yuan exchange rate from overshooting,Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi giving assurances over troubled Norinchukin BankPBOC Governor says monetary policy will provide support for

The number of foreign visitors for business and leisure was seen at 3.04 million last month. That is little changed from April and just down slightly from the all-time record in March. Compared to May 2019 i.e. the same month before the pandemic, arrivals into Japan were 9.6% higher this year. If anything, the weaker

Members recognized chance of inflation stalling but there was a consensus that indicators showed enough progress to warrant a cutMembers agreed that future easing would likely be gradual, timing would depend on data Agreed to emphasize in communications that decisions would be taken one meeting at a timeSome members were more focused on downside risks

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.4%UK FTSE 100 +0.1%French CAC -0.8%Italy MIB -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.2% The latest poll forecasts the UK Conservative leader Rishi Sunak will lose his own seat in the July 4 election. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prices up 0.5% seasonally adjustedPrices up 1.7% non-seasonally adjustedPrices up 5.7% y/yPrices are 2.04% from the May 2022 peak Leading cities y/y: Calgary 16.4%Halifax 11.4%Vancouver 8.7%Toronto +2.8% The early indications from the Bank of Canada rate cut were a bit of a surprise as it sparked a jump in listings rather than a jump in

Canadians are quickly turning against immigration as the country’s population continues to swell at a breakneck pace. The population surpassed 41 million for the first time on April 1, according to Statistics Canada. That’s after the country added 242,673 people during the first quarter. The quarterly population growth of 0.6% has been consistent over the

Prior was 45Current sales 48 vs 51 priorSix month sales 47 vs 51 prior This is the lowest reading since December. It’s the second consecutive miss in a quick fall from 51 in April. The latest retail sales data also showed poor metrics on building materials and furniture, which are proxies for housing turnover. Here

Rates will fall if inflation helps us, which it is doing ‘If we look at the monetary policy cycle as it stands today, and what we know today about inflation and the trajectory of interest rates, we can anticipate that this cycle of negative results [for the Banco de Portugal] will continue for at least

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway speech on inflation. He’ll be following up with more at 5.30pm New Zealand time (0530 GMT, 0130 US Eastern time). From his speech: Inflation may be more sticky in the near termBut inflation could fall more quickly in the medium term, there is spare capacity

The Bank of Canada kicked off a rate-cutting cycle this month and now the question is: How quickly will the cuts continue? Governor Tiff Macklem said they are taking decisions one meeting at a time and that it’s reasonable to expect more rate cuts if inflation continues to ease. Later today we get the minutes

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

NVDA price forecast for traders and investors at ForexLive.com Predicting where a stock might rest after a significant rally, especially when it’s creating new all-time highs (ATH) almost weekly, presents a unique challenge in technical analysis. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) is currently in such a phase, with its price action tightly confined within a strong bull

Fundamental Overview Copper has been rallying like crazy in the first part of the year amid a pickup in global growth, Chinese stimulus measures and concerns over tightness in global mine supply. Unfortunately, as it’s often the case, the rally attracted the momentum players, the price got overstretched and we got a big correction to

Prior +15.6%Market index 210.4 vs 208.5 priorPurchase index 146.0 vs 143.7 priorRefinance index 552.7 vs 554.7 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.94% vs 7.02% prior Mortgage applications nudged a little higher in the past week, helped by a further jump in purchase activity. That is offset by a decline in refinancing activity, following the surge higher in

North Korea fully supports Russia’s military operation in UkraineRussia plays important role in maintaining strategic balance Meanwhile, Putin says that he hopes the next time the two meet again will be in Moscow. With the G7 recently having kept much of their focus on China, the partnership between Russia and North Korea continues to deepen.

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

The string continues for the Nasdaq. The index has closed higher for 7 consecutive days with each day closing at record levels. Today’s close was by the a whisker, but it was still a positive day. The first high close was at 17192.53 back on June 10th. Today the index closed at 17862.23. That is

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged yesterday, as widely expected: RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedRBA’s Bullock: We did not consider the case for a rate cut todayRBA’s Bullock: We need a lot to go our way to bring inflation back to range Via Westpac, a recap, in

French President Emmanuel Macron called an election back on Sunday June 9. Adam on the call: Macron’s gamble is looking like a disaster as new poll released Leader of the far-right National Rally Marine Le Pen has offered an olive branch: says she won’t seek Macron’s resignation if far right wins snap election Le Pen

Headlines: UK May CPI +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y expectedHow has the BOE rates pricing changed after the inflation data today?Eurozone April current account balance €38.6 billion vs €35.8 billion priorJapan’s tourism sector continues to flourish going into the summerGerman economy minister says relationship with China has become more complexNorth Korea and Russia are entering a

Credit Agricole has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, now projecting the first cut to occur in September instead of July. This adjustment maintains the overall forecast of 50 basis points of cuts by the end of the year, with a skip in November and another cut in December. Key Points: Revised

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures flat European equities continue to try and put last week’s poor showing behind them so far this week. The slight gains slated for the open here continues the modest bounce on the week, helped by gains in Wall Street yesterday. Political woes may have ebbed but they will continue

US May advance retail sales +0.1% vs +0.3% expectedFed’s Musalem: Confidence to cut rates could take months and likely quarters to play outFed’s Goolsbee: Latest inflation number was ‘excellent’ hopefully more to comeFed’s Kugler: Policy has more work to do, judgement will be guided by dataFed’s Kugler: We have two-sided risks, we continue to pay

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

Settle in for a quiet one today with the US off on holiday. Europe doesn’t appear to be inspired today either, though we do get the Bank of Canada minutes at 1:30 pm ET. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Today is the Juneteenth holiday in the US and the US markets will be closed. The only notable event was the UK CPI report where the data showed some more progress but nothing gamechanging for the BoE. There’s not much else scheduled for today other than the US NAHB Housing Market Index and the BoC

The TL;DR on this post is that there is no rate change expected from the People’s Bank of China. On Monday the Bank set the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) unchanged: People’s Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%) The MLF rate sets the scene for the monthly Loan Prime Rate

Let’s just take a quick check of things based on the current pricing: August – 25 bps rate cut: ~32% (previously ~46%)September – 25 bps rate cut: ~80% (previously ~88%)Total rate cuts for remainder of 2024: ~44 bps (previously ~48 bps) The odds of a sooner rate cut have gone down a little despite UK

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng is speaking at the 2024 Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai” Monetary policy is supportiveMonetary policy will provide financial support for China’s economic recoveryThe weakening momentum of the USD’s rise is a benefit to the yuanWants to strengthen counter- and cross-cyclical policy adjustmentPBOC aims to maintain stability in policyWill prevent

I posted info on this yesterday as a heads up, doing so again. U.S. markets will be closed Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) is recommending the US Bond market close that day. So it is. FX desks will be closed, perhaps

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE -0.2%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB flat This takes away from the slight gains just about an hour ago. It’s going to be a bit more of a quiet one in trading today. That considering US markets are closed in observance of the Juneteenth holiday. This article was

I wasn’t expecting wild swings, but sheesh. Nothing! Link is here ICYMI: BOJ April Minutes show some concern about the weak yen on inflation & wages The hourly USD/JPY chart is looking like its getting ready to pop above 158.30. I stuck some lines on it but I’m sure tech analysts out here can do

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

Prior +2.3%Core CPI +3.5% vs +3.5% y/y expectedPrior +3.9% The readings are in line with estimates, with the monthly figures showing a 0.3% increase in headline inflation and 0.5% increase in core inflation. Despite the headline reading touching the crucial 2% mark, core annual inflation remains high at 3.5%. And the more worrying detail is

Prior €35.8 billion The details show surpluses were recorded for goods (€38 billion), services (€11 billion) and primary income (€2 billion). And these were offset by a deficit for secondary income (€12 billion). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

China is an important partner in all fieldsBut relationship has now become more complexWe do not want to separate from ChinaBut being too dependent on one country is a problem Considering the current fragile state of Germany’s manufacturing sector, it’s not the best time to strain relations with China. That said, China could also do

A draft proposal reviewed by Reuters: Japan must create an environment where government bonds remain an attractive investment for financial institutions, such as by issuing shorter-duration debt, a finance ministry panel is likely to saythe Bank of Japan’s exit in March from its radical stimulus is prodding the government to prepare for an era of

After a bit of a tussle so far in June trading, USD/CHF finally fell below a key support threshold yesterday. The 200-day moving average (blue line) has given way, alongside the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing higher this year. It’s a notable breakdown for the pair, as the downside momentum continues to build

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip against the Yen following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) in the regulator: Will strengthen countercyclical supervision, improve the solvency, deposit reserve mechanismsStudying broadening the scope of foreign shareholders in non-bank institutionsChina’s forex market operation is resilientChina’s forex market faces increasing adjustmentChina’s forex market has condition for steady operation in futureChina’s forex market remains reasonable and orderlyWill pay

Crude oil futures settled at $80.71. That is a $0.99 or 1.24%. That is the highest level since April 30. Looking at the daily chart, the price is also closing back above its 100 and 200-day moving averages at $79.51 and $79.63 respectively. The price is also closing above its 50% midpoint of the move

Results via oilprice.com on twix: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -2.2 mn barrelsDistillates +0.3 mn bblsGasoline +0.6 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The

As was widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged yesterday: RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedRBA’s Bullock: We did not consider the case for a rate cut todayRBA’s Bullock: We need a lot to go our way to bring inflation back to range I posted earlier from

There are just two to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0745 level. That is likely to help keep price action in the pair more muted, sticking closer to the expiries before rolling off later. Then, there is the one for USD/CAD at

The monthly Reuters Tankan survey, a guide to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey. For June 2024: Manufacturers index is +6, from +9 in Maypositive for the fourth consecutive monthJapanese manufacturers say their drop in confidence is due to higher materials costs.Non – manufacturers +31, from +26 in Maythree month high Outlooks: Manufacturers seen

The World Gold Council surveys central banks each year on attitudes around gold and currency reserves. This year, 29% said they plan to increase holdings in the year ahead. That’s the highest since the survey began in 2018. I think that’s even better than it looks because gold prices appreciated in the past year by

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi financial health of Norinchukin Bank is sufficient Reports are that the Japanese banking giant Norinchukin Bank is to sell USD 63bln of US and European sovereign bonds during the current fiscal year. Doing so to make up for unrealised losses. will dispose of the foreign bonds gradually during the fiscal

With hindsight the April meeting was a bit of a placeholder between the rate hike (the first in 17 years) at the March meeting: Highlights of the Bank of Japan rate decision on April 26, 2024 and the meeting last week where the Bank flagged a reduction in JGB purchases to come: BOJ governor Ueda

A major police incident has unfolded on Collins Street in Melbourne’s CBD people reporting they were told to stay inside their office buildings Police, including the bomb squad, were called to attend firearm found at the scene, not yet confirmed if it is a real one or an imitation UPDATE – area declared safe now.

Sees 2024 fiscal deficit at $1.915 trillionFY 2025-34 deficit seen at $22.083 trillion, up 10% from Feb forecast2024 real GDP seen up 2.0% vs 1.5% in Feb2025 GDP seen at 2.0% vs 2.2% in FebSees 2024-34 avg GDP growth at 1.8%2024 deficit higher due to outlays on student loans, bank resolutions, Ukraine/Israel aid and MedicaidLegislation,

Major currencies are looking rather muted and understandably so. Today will be more of a placeholder trading day with it being a US holiday. That makes for kind of a weird week as we have a bit of a recess in the middle. The dollar is keeping more mixed overall on the week while risk

Goolsbee is participating in a panel. More to come This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Exports to: China +17.8% y/ythe US +23.9% y/ythe EU -10.1% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The minutes from the Bank of Japan today are for the April meeting. The April meeting followed the March meeting. It was at the March meeting that the BoJ raised its rate for the first time in 17 years. April was more low-key. From this meeting day: Highlights of the Bank of Japan rate decision

Earlier from Conway: RBNZ’s Conway: Inflation may be more sticky in the near term More: Inflation will slow down, helped by excess capacityNZ not experiencing stagflationwelcomes the recent fall in expectations for inflation headline inflation to drop to target band by year-end This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The data release has barely moved NZD/USD, circa 0.6144 The current account represents the most comprehensive gauge of a nation’s international financial interactions. It encapsulates not just the exchange of goods and services, but also earnings from foreign investments and payments made on investments from abroad within NZ. In addition, it covers transfers like overseas

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Collins spoke on Tuesday: Fed’s Collins cautions against over-reacting to recent inflation data Read that post, sound advice from Collins. More now: its going to take some time for inflation to come downeconomic data points to an economy coming into better balanceCollins says she can see scenarios for both one and two cuts in 2024

How much we cut will be a question we continue to assess as more data comes inIt’s not an answer we can give todayIt depends on whether it is from disinflation or rapid deterioration of the labor marketRemains concerned about housing. Import and wages are still higher than productivityHave to see that continued progress on

The best traders anticipate the next trade. In this video I take a look at the GBPJPY and the EURJPY from a technical perspective and pick out the key level that will define the bullish/bearish barometer heading into the new trading day and explain why the levels are important. The level will either keep the

The Canadian jobs market will face cyclical pressures in the coming months that will lower inflation and lead to rate cuts but in the years ahead, the economy could struggle to keep wage inflation in check. Right now, just 22% of firms report labour shortages in the Bank of Canada’s latest Business Outlook Survey; that’s

Bloomberg with the article titles: Trading Indicator With 100% Win Rate Signals Sell Long Bonds Now Sheesh, …. The Bloomberg piece is gated but if you can access it here is the link: Trading Indicator With 100% Win Rate Signals Sell Long Bonds Now If you can’t access it, here is the gist: A technical

German DAX futures +0.6%UK FTSE futures +0.5% The gains here owes to the surging run higher by US stocks overnight. But for European equities itself, the overall mood is much steadier as compared to last week as political woes have ebbed slightly as well. US futures are more muted though, keeping flattish on the day.

ECBs Villeroy is on the wires saying: We owe our citizens respect, that means not running bigger deficits that can’t be financedThat also means quickly clarifying our countries economic and budget strategy. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Would you believe it, the plucky chipmaker that doesn’t even make its own chips is now the world’s most-valuable company. Shares are up another 3.3% today and have been on a non-stop run since the release of ChatGPT. However it becoming more valuable than any other company is one of those things that should make

Preponderance of labor market data shows it coming into balanceMon pol is ‘sufficiently restrictive’, economic conditions moving in the right directionIf wage growth continues to moderate, will soon be at levels consistent with price stabilityMost indicators point to a slow, steady easing of labor marketWatching closely for signs of labor market deteriorationI expect some cooling

May CPI data was welcome newsGreat to see CPI data but will need to see several more months to have confidence inflation heading to 2%Will be watching data in coming months quite closelyIn a good position to be patient on policyWill be watching and seeing what’s happening in the economy If you take this at

The NZDUSD experienced a decline during the Asian session, moving down to retest and briefly dip below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Additionally, the price fell below last week’s lows (see the red and green lines at 0.61029). However, after these failed breaks, the price rebounded and surged higher during the US

The USDCAD has exhibited fluctuating trading patterns this week, continuing a trend seen since April. Since then, the pair has mostly oscillated between 1.3600 and 1.3800, with frequent ups and downs. This week mirrors that pattern, with the price moving lower today and approaching the 100 and 200 bar moving averages (MAs) on the 4-hour

Oracle stock got an intensive boost after the software company released its financial report for the fourth quarter of 2023. Interestingly, the Q4 results were worse than expected. Let’s explore what impressed market participants and why Oracle shares are trending this year. First, let’s examine the chart. It shows a massive spike after Oracle’s earnings

Too soon to say if inflation is retreating to 2%Appropriate for US central bank to remain patient on mon polRemains ‘realistic optimist’ on economy and mon polRecent inflation data has been encouragingEconomy has been remarkably resilientRestoring price stability may take more time than thoughtInflation is still stubbornly above target This isn’t dovish. We’re still a

After mixed data with weaker retail sales and a stronger industrial production/capacity utilization, the US major indices are opening marginally higher. Yesterday both the S&P and NASDAQ index closed at record levels. A snapshot of market six minutes into the open currently shows: Dow Industrial Average average up 71.21 points or 0.18% at 38849.32S&P index

Federal Reserve speakers today include Barkin, Collins, Kugler, Musalem, Logan, GoolsbeeUS data focus for Tuesday – May retail sales – the range of expectations to watchBank Japan Gov Ueda: Must be vigilant to impact of weak yen, import price moves on economyECB Vice President Luis de Guindos is speaking on TuesdayNZD traders heads up –

He needs to observe a period of favorable inflation, moderating demand and expanding supply before he will have confidence for a rate cutThe conditions could take months, or more-likely quarters to play outIf inflation becomes stuck meaningfully above 2% or moves higher, he would support additional tighteningSays he will remain vigilant until inflation is clearly

High yield: 4.452%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.480%Tail -2.8 basis points vs six month average of 0.1 basis pointsBid to cover: 2.74X versus a six month average of 2.6XDirects 16.35% vs six-month average of 18.9%Indirects 77.89% versus six-month average of 67.8%Dealers 5.77% vs six at average of 13.3% Auction Grade: A The

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $13 billion of 20 year bonds at 1 PM ET. The six-month averages of the major components will be compared to the actual results to determine success or failure of the auction: Tail: 0.1 basis pointsBid to cover: 2.60XDirects (a measure of domestic demand): 18.9%Indirects (a measure of international

Prior month 0.0% (revised to -0.2%) Details: Retail sales for May +0.1% vs +0.3% expectedEx-auto MoM -0.1% vs +0.2% expected. Prior month +0.2% (revised to +0.1%)Control group +0.4% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month -0.3% (revised to -0.5%)Ex auto and gas +0.1% vs. -0.1% prior (revised to -0.3%)Total nominal sales for the March 2024 through May

This will be an unusual US trading week with a holiday sandwiched in the middle on Wednesday. Before that, we get the data highlight of the week with the May US retail sales report. The consensus is for a 0.2% rise following a flat number in May. The question on my mind is if we’re

The US dollar has made a nice comeback today, despite the softer retail sales data. The latest round of bids came ahead of the London fix, so that could have been a driver, especially with a US holiday tomorrow. That said, the bids came early for a fixing trade and the rally in oil prices

Before the May retail sales report, I wrote about how the metric I would be watching most-closely wasn’t the control group, but the market. We’ve been a bad-news-is-good-news regime for the past 18 months but evidence has been mounting that the market is beginning to see the Fed as behind the curve. That will ignite

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 2Q growth remain unchanged at 3.1%. IN their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on June 18, unchanged from June 7 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Department of

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: Depending on economic, price and financial data and information available at the time, there is chance we could raise interest rates at July meeting Decision on BOJ’s bond tapering and short-term rate target are two different things Earlier from Ueda: Bank of Japan Gov Ueda expects strengthening in Japan wage-price

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speaking from parliament expects strengthening in Japan wage-price cycle – underlying inflation to gradually acceleratesees Japan’s economy recovering moderatelymonitoring the FX impact on economy and inflationdata out since April roughly in line with BoJ estimates We need to scrutinise data a bit more to judge whether underlying inflation will heighten

Prior was +1.7%Whole milk powder -2.5% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.1%Inventories ex-autos +0.3% This is rarely a market mover but it’s an important number in GDP calculations. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar is at the lows of the day as the selling accelerates following a softer retail sales report. I want to highlight what the bond market is now saying about inflation, with 5-year breakevens now at 2.16%. That is despite oil prices trading at a six-week high at $80.70. The bond market is

It’s hard to know how much signal to take from inflation last year, or this quarter, or last couple of weeksI didn’t quite get more confidence in Q1 this year about inflation, we’ll see where we goOn the goods side, I hear pricing power is waningThis month’s inflation reading was very encouragingLabor market is also

The AUDUSD sellers made a play to the get outside of a swing area on the downside at 0.6575. The low price reached 0.6584. that low was also just above the 38.2% retracement of the move up from April at 0.6579. Buyers leaned against the low area. The price has rebounded higher over the last

Headlines: RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedRBA’s Bullock: We did not consider the case for a rate cut todayRBA’s Bullock: We need a lot to go our way to bring inflation back to rangeECB’s de Guindos: Best time to make rate decisions is together with updated projectionsGold stays in consolidative mode but

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan finance minister Suzuki: Ministry of finance will continue debt management through dialogue with marketsInterest rates are set by markets reflecting JGB demand and various aspectsDecline to comment on Bank of Japan’s decision last week on planned reduction of JGB purchases Ueda is speaking at the same time: Bank of Japan Gov Ueda expects strengthening

Another day, another record: US stocks start soft and then surgePreview: What to watch for in the May US retail sales reportWTI crude oil rises back above $80 in a $2 climbPowell to deliver Humphrey Hawkins testimony on July 9WSJ Timiraos: See’s core PCE falling to 2.6% from 2.8% lastFed’s Harker: I think one cut

After the previous attempt to get above 158.00 stalled on Friday last week, dip buyers are showing up once again to test the figure level today. The slight bounce in bond yields this week is helping with that at least. But traders are not really showing much respect to BOJ governor Ueda’s remarks earlier in

Fundamental Overview We had some good news last week when both the CPI and the PPI came in on the soft side. This should help the stock market in the bigger picture since it will give the Fed more confidence to begin decreasing rates in the latter part of the year. The FOMC decision last

Adam posted the latest from Kalanovic. I don’t know why he bothered, the bearish view never changes: US stocks keep climbing higher but J.P. Morgan’s Kolanovic is having none of it Meanwhile, the people tasked with actual risk taking at JPM are having none of him: While we had thought the market was setting up

1330 GMT / 0930 US Eastern time: Speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos at a joint conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank on European Financial Integration in Frankfurt, Germany This doesn’t sound like it’ll have much, if anything, on the economy or policy. You never know I guess. This

The AUDUSD has been fluctuating mostly between 0.6575 and 0.66896 over the past 6-7 weeks. This prolonged period of oscillation has led to the near convergence of the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart, which are now positioned between 0.66318 and 0.66349. Today, weaker US retail sales data and an RBA

On the one hand, political fears are almost always a buy. On the other hand, Europe is uninvestible most of the time. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +0.3%UK FTSE 100 +0.65%French CAC +0.8%Italy MIB +1.2%Spain IBEX +1.0% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The CHF Is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The AUD is stronger after the RBA decided to keep the cash rate steady at 4.35% in its June 2024 monetary policy decision. The move aligns with expectations. The statement said that since peaking in 2022, inflation has notably

Precious metals have lost much of their momentum from May trading but while silver has retraced the upside move by quite a bit, gold is still pretty much in consolidation territory. Granted, the run higher in gold largely came earlier in March and April. In May, gold threatened fresh record highs above $2,400 but ultimately

Prior was 0.0%Capacity utilization 78.7% vs 78.6% expectedManufacturing output +0.9% vs +0.3% expectedPrior manufacturing output -0.3% (revised to -0.4%)The index for mining increased 0.3% in May, and the index for utilities advanced 1.6%The index for defense and space equipment rose 1.0% and was nearly 10% above its year-earlier levelfull report This is an impressive reading

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The projections are updated every three monthsWe’ll have new ones in SeptemberThose are the most significant and interesting moments from the point of view of monetary policyThey are a very important indicator when it comes to deciding on rates Once again, this continues to effectively rule out a chance of a move in July. That

The USDCHF is “making a break for it” in trading today. More specifically, the market is breaking below and away from its 200 day moving out at 0.8896. It is also breaking below and away from it 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December low May high. That retracement level comes in at

Prior 4.35%Inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022Conditions in the labour market eased further over the past monthBut it is tighter than is consistent with sustained full employment and inflation at targetThe economic outlook remains uncertainThe process of returning inflation to target is unlikely to be smoothThere are uncertainties regarding the lags in

The retail sales came and weaker than expectations, and that weakened the US dollar a little. Yields are lower, stocks in premarket trading are little changed (but they aren’t necessarily enamored with the idea of lower growth/lower inflation hope. Having said that, markets are treading water (now) including the US dollar. In this video take

Prior +2.4%Core CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelimPrior +2.7% No changes to the initial estimates as euro area inflation remains stickier in May. We’ll have to see how the trend develops in Q3 to get a better idea if the ECB may look to cut rates in September next. This article was written by Justin

Fundamental Overview We got some very good news last week as both the CPI and PPI came in on the softer side. This should support the stock market in the bigger picture as it will give the Fed more confidence to start cutting rates at some point in the last part of the year. The

I did a full post on this during the best 😉 Asian timezone: US data focus for Tuesday – May retail sales – the range of expectations to watch This is an abbreviated version with “just the numbers”. – On Tuesday at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time we get retail sales for

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: As we taper bond buying, we will of course be aiming to shrink size of our balance sheet in ratio to GDP termsBasic purpose of our bond tapering would be to allow yields to move more freely driven by market forces, and revive market functioningJapan’s economy will likely see more

To put things short, the RBA is waiting on one of two things to happen next. That is either the economy weakens further in a more significant manner to prompt them to cut rates. Or that they get their wish and inflation falls, allowing them to also cut rates. For now, the lack of progress

NY Fed Pres. Williams is speaking on FOXBusiness: Rate cut path depends on data. US economy is doing well, is in better balance.Fed decision to depend on economy.Things are moving in right direction for monetary policy.Expect interest rates to come down gradually as inflation eases.Politics will not influence fed right decision.We have a very strong

Prior -72.3Economic sentiment 47.5 vs 50.0 expectedPrior 47.1 After a decent recovery in previous months, German economic sentiment is seen stalling as we look towards June. It applies to both the headline reading and the outlook index. Of note, ZEW says that inflation expectations have increased and that is perhaps a contributing factor. Adding to

Citi is joining a chorus of calls in revising higher their outlook for the S&P 500 as of late. You can check out the other calls here from earlier this week. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

But would not say that the case for a rate hike is increasingVery conscious that high rates are hurting some sectors of the countryInflation is also hurting the people, so we are focused on bringing it downUse of the word ‘vigilant’ does not mean a rate hike is coming Her remarks reads a lot like

Nothing from Cook on the economy nor monetary policy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Crude oil reversed all of its losses from the last week of May, when, despite OPEC+’s extension of voluntary output cuts, the market fell as the price broke out of a month-long range. The dip could have been purely technical, as bearish momentum increased following the breakout. The price eventually bottomed around $73

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) down 0.1% y/y expected -1.0%prior -9.6% drop in Aprilelectronics exports growing for a second straight month For the m/m, also -0.1% but painting a disappointing picture: expected +1.7%prior +7.3% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

European investors are seeing the optimism at the open earlier fade rather quickly on the day. The CAC 40 index in particular opened nearly 1% higher but has pared all of the gains on the day to near flat levels. It’s a sign that while political woes have ebbed to start the week yesterday, risk

Fundamental Overview The USD last week lost ground across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed

There’s not much that can move the market in the European session as we have just the Final Eurozone CPI readings and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. The “Final” readings are rarely impactful because the market generally moves the most on new information, especially those pieces of news that can reshape future expectations. 09:00 GMT

The testimony will come just days after the June non-farm payrolls report but two days before the June CPI reading. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Gold got stuck in a consolidation near a key support zone as the market awaits a catalyst or key technical breakouts to find some momentum. Last week, we got some very good inflation data from the CPI and PPI which should support gold in the bigger picture as it will give the Fed

The Australian central bank is expected to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at today’s meeting. Considering that inflation remains well above the RBA’s threshold range, there is no reason to take their foot off the gas pedal just yet. In terms of language, don’t expect much of a change to what we saw

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A barrage of Fed speak to come today. Some look very pertinent to traders. The times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format. 1400/1000 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin participates in an MNI Webcast discussion, “Outlook for the US Economy and Fed Policy.” 1540/1140 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins

Eurostoxx +0.6%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC 40 +0.7%UK FTSE +0.5%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +1.0% French stocks continue to show a modest rebound as political woes have ebbed slightly to start the new week. But those risks remain a key factor to watch out for, especially as we move closer towards the snap election at the

There was a discussion on whether to hike rates at the meetingBut decided to stay the course on policyWanted to make a point that we are alert to upside risks on inflationDifficult to get a read on inflation with just quarterly data The aussie is nudging a little higher as Bullock reveals that rate hikes

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 mark. That is likely to keep price action more contained near the figure level, if there is any slight push towards the downside in the session ahead. There are also some larger ones at 1.0670-75 for

A note on Monday from Citi, downgraded its outlook on European equities to ‘neutral’ from ‘overweight’. Simultaneously upgraded the more “growth-oriented” US. Citi’s key reasons for the Europe downgrade: heightened political risks; narrowing market leadership; and potential for a continued positioning unwind More: “Our sector allocation is tilted towards growth (‘overweights’ in tech, industrials) and

The USDCHF moved higher into the US session with the 0.89318 as a target followed by the 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines near 0.8939). The 0.89318 was defined by the swing lows from Thursday last week and Asian Session lows on Friday. That level was tested today on the move higher

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway will deliver a speech on inflation at 9am New Zealand time on Wednesday, 19 June 2024 this is 2100 GMT and 1700 US Eastern time on Tuesday, 18 June 2024Watch the live stream Conway will follow up at 5.30pm New Zealand time the same day (see

Major currencies are lightly changed on the day, with the dollar starting the week with a more mixed showing yesterday. The euro holding steadier as political woes ebb ever so slightly. But those risks are still persistent and may come back to bite at the single currency with eyes on the French snap election at

Westpac McDermott Miller consumer sentiment survey for the second quarter of 2024 comes in at a woeful 82.2 prior 93.2 — The quarterly New Zealand Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence survey measures the confidence and sentiment of consumers regarding economic conditions. It is a comprehensive survey that includes various indices, such as the overall Consumer

On Tuesday at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time, we get retail sales for May 2024. Consensus expectations are in the table below. This snapshot is from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. As for the ranges. For Retail sales m/m: -0.1% to +0.5% For Retail sales excl autos m/m: -0.1%

These are the main summary points from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia Reserve Bank of Australia preview. Analysts at the bank expect the RBA to leave policy on hold and the neutral bias to be kept We expect the RBA Board will leave the cash rate unchanged next week in a straight forward decision.The Q1

Via a research note from HSBC on the yuan: expect daily USD/CNY fixing to slowly drift higherwhich will see spot also trending upwardsdon’t expect the move up to quick (HSBC say not like August last year when USD/CNY jumped nearly 700 points in 8 days)says the gradual increase of the reference rate is likely to

Nomura with a review of last week’s Bank of Japan decision, what to watch for the yen, and a preview of the next BoJ meeting: The June meeting had no hawkish surprisesThe BOJ decided to reduce JGB purchases after the July Monetary Policy Meeting, with the details to be determined at that MPM. Nomura says

All-time highs in US stocks are like the sunrise these days: Guaranteed every day. A sluggish start today slowly reversed as trader bought the dip in a time-tested strategy that delivered once again. The S&P 500 is up 37 points now, or 0.7% to 5468. The Nasdaq Composite is up 0.9% and also at a

A heads up for Ellis Connolly, Head of Payments Policy at the Reserve Bank of Australia, speaking at 10.10 am Sydney time. If you do see alerts to this speech its probably not going to move AUD at all. The focus from the Reserve Bank of Australia today is on its policy decision due at

A snapshot note via Westpacon their Australian dollar view. In brief: We anticipate wider and higher ranges for AUD in the month ahead. Volatile French politics will have their sway over the global risk climate, but a resumption of more encouraging US disinflation trends and revamped Fed rate cut bets should ultimately prove more decisive.

The RBA is expected to keep its cash rate unchanged, quick preview here: Reserve Bank of Australia meet Monday & Tuesday, likely cash rate hold @ 4.35%, 12 yr high Prior to the RBA we get Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook giving acceptance remarks and receiving an award at the 70th Anniversary Celebration of

On the day: S&P 500 +0.8%Nasdaq Comp +1.0%DJIA +0.5%Russell 2000 +0.7% Toronto TSX Comp -0.3%. Breadth was better today than it was late last week but it was chipmakers Broadcom, Qualcom and Micron leading the way with some help from Tesla and Apple. Nvidia gained just 0.1% in a rare day of underperformance for the

U.S. markets will be closed Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) is recommending the US Bond market closed that day. So it is. FX desks will be closed, perhaps the odd skeleton crew — As for futures markets, for Equity Products at

J.P Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic made his name as a market-structure analyst but at some point he parlayed his fame into a job as an equity strategist and it hasn’t gone well, considering his bearish stance has run head-first into a roaring bull market. Nonetheless, he remains undeterred and today writes: “.. Our cautious stance

Following an OPEC-inspired dip to start the month, oil has now completely erased the decline and is threatening the May highs. WTI crude oil settled up $1.88 to $80.33 per barrel. That’s the highest settlement since late April and just shy of the May intraday high of $80.62. Last week there was a surprise build

Domestic sight deposits CHF 445.3 bn vs CHF 450.1 bn prior The past week sees a notable drop in Swiss sight deposits, with the trend now stretching all the way to April. If anything, it suggests the SNB possibly intervening in the FX market – that is to sell foreign currencies in exchange for the

Exness, one of the world’s largest retail brokers, announces its role as the Official Global Partner of iFX EXPO International 2024. This premier B2B event is taking place at the City of Dreams in Limassol between 18 and 20 June 2024. Exness’ participation reinforces its commitment to fostering a dynamic and collaborative environment where the

The EUR is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is starting the new trading week – heading into the US session – mostly stronger. The greenback is only lower vs the EUR . The EURUSD was lower earlier in the day, but has risen in

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.5%Italy FTSE MIB +0.8% The political angst in the region will continue to be a factor to be mindful of in trading this week. For now, there is an air of calm but we’ll see how things go with US retail sales data also on

Today is likely to be one of those Mondays when the price action could swing up and down for no apparent reason given the lack of catalysts. These days is generally better to preserve capital and refrain from trading. The only notable events on the agenda include lots of central bank speakers for the ECB

Russian President Vladimir Putin is travelling to North Korea tomorrow and will hold meetings on June 19. RIA reports that he may sign a partnership agreement during the visit that will include security issues. Putin along with Kim will make statements to the press following their meetings, which are the first bi-lateral meetings between the

The AUDUSD is lower on the day and in the process extended below the low from Friday. What the sellers could not do was to extend the fall below the 38.2% of the move up from the April 2024 low at 0.6579, and also a swing area between 0.6575 to 0.6585. The low price reached

The USDCAD has creeped higher in trading today. The range is only 34 pips currently with the average range of 62 pips over the last month of trading. Nevertheless, the price of the USDCAD has taken the price above a swing area between 1.3734 and 1.37428. The price is also moving away from its 50%

Bitcoin has been steadily sold over the past 12 hours after trading higher earlier. It’s down 0.7% on the day and is threatening the $65,000 level and last week’s low of $64,924. Cracking that would leave it at a one-month low despite US equities hitting records. It may be an example of the worsening breadth

Some local Australian data, ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads for May 2024: -2.1% m/m -18.1% y/y Says ANZ on the release: -23.9% from its peak in November 2022still more than 20% above pre-pandemic levels “The (revised) ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series shows a softening over 2024, with an 8.2% fall since the end of last year.

Last week was a bruising one for European equities as political turmoil spread throughout France, leading to debt and deficit fears. Today, some of that was scaled back. Closing changes Stoxx 600 +0.1%German DAX +0.4%UK FTSE 100flatFrench CAC +0.9%Italy MIB +0.8%Spain IBEX -0.4% CAC 40 daily: This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD last week lost ground across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed

The EURUSD fell below a swing area on Friday between 1.0720 and 1.0735. Selling intensified, and the price low moved down toward 1.0666 before bouncing back into the Friday close. Today, the initial move was to the downside in the Asian session, but the price has since bounced higher and back toward the aforementioned swing

Goldman Sachs maintains its EUR/USD forecast at 1.05 for the next 3 to 6 months. The outlook is influenced by potential political uncertainties and the resulting policy divergence, which could weaken the Euro. Key Points: Political Uncertainty Impact: Euro Weakening: Political uncertainty, especially around elections, may erode progress in economic indicators, inviting further policy divergence.Soft

The three major US stock indices are trading higher with the NASDAQ index leading the way. A positive close today in the NASDAQ would be is sixth consecutive record closing level. On Friday, the S&P index fell marginally (-0.04%). The snapped its 4-day positive streak (and 4 days of successive record closes). The Dow Industrial

Fundamental Overview The USD last week lost ground across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed

Bank of America suggests a long AUD/CHF trade in anticipation of policy divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Swiss National Bank at their upcoming June meetings. The recommendation is based on recent Australian labor market data reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate stance from the RBA. Key Points: RBA Policy Outlook: Expected Rate Decision:

NY Fed President John Williams is set to speak at the top of the hour. I’m not expecting headlines to cross as it’s a hybrid event at the Economic Club of New York where he is moderating, but I can’t rule them out. In an hour –at 1 pm ET — we will also hear

The NZDUSD continues the fall from last week’s high. Recall from last week, the price moved higher and extended above swing highs from February 22, March 8, and June 6 up to 0.6215. The high-priced last week extended to 0.6221 but stalled and started the rotation back to the downside. The rotation to the downside

Harker speaks at a monetary policy conference: If my economic forecast plays out, I think one cut would be appropriate this yearTwo cuts or none also ‘quite possible’ depending on dataMore data is essential to come to a decision on rate cuts given choppiness so far this yearOver the ensuing months I will continue to

The GBPUSD is trading to a new session high, and in the process, broke back above its rising 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.26737. The price also extended above a swing area (see red number circles on the chart above) between 1.26748 and 1.26858. That should disappoint the sellers on the

In a tweet (or X), WSJs Timiraos sees core PCE moving to 2.6% from 2.8% last month. 3 month annualized rate dropping back below 3.0% and the 6 month annualized around 3.2% from 3.3% last month. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Headlines: ECB’s Lane: There are still questions surrounding inflation momentumECB’s Lane: We should not be too sensitive to monthly inflation dataECB’s Lane: If there is big movement in euro currency, it would be relevant for policyECB reportedly have no plans to discuss emergency purchases of French bondsBOJ governor Ueda says will scrutinise FX moves, impact

European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks (governor of Latvia’s central bank). He was pretty blunt on the policy backdrop, saying that the Bank must not allow inflation to remain above 2% into 2026. ECB projections are that the 2% target inflation rate will only be met towards the end of 2025. Kazaks is clearly

The USDCHF moved lower on Friday, but for the 2nd time last week, the breaks below the 200 day MA at session lows could not be sustained. Nevertheless, the price stalled just above that MA at 0.8896. In trading today, the price rotated higher and moved up to a swing low area from both Thursday

Prior was 240.2K (revised to 241.1K)Single detached +2%Multi-urban starts +13% Canadian housing starts rose 3.8% in May with a huge 104% rise in Montreal leading the way. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Major US indices are trading lower to start the new trading week. The major three indices are down around 0.15% to 0.25% The NASDAQ is on a five-day win streak with record closes on each of those trading days. The S&P snapped its win streak on Friday with a modest decline. A snapshot of the

The USD is mixed vs the major currencies to start the trading on June 17, 2024. In the kickstart video, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, the pair is higher on the day (lower USD) and is higher looking to test a key swing area between 1.0798

A really big move would matter for CPI forecastBut these are not big movementsDo not think policy divergence with the Fed is any more of an issue than it was beforeThe peak effect of rates on inflation hasn’t occurred yet He’s offering plenty of remarks today, covering a broad range of topics. But the bottom

On Monday, the focus in the U.S. will be on the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Tuesday brings the monetary policy announcement from Australia. In the U.S., we will receive the retail sales m/m data and industrial production m/m. Wednesday’s key event is the release of the CPI data for the U.K. On Thursday, Switzerland will

Prior was -15.6New orders -1.0 vs -16.2 priorPrices paid +24.5 vs +33.7 priorEmployment -8.7 vs -5.1 priorSix month index +30.1 vs +14.5 prior (two year high) These details and the headline paint an improving picture in the first manufacturing survey of the month. Despite that, the Fed might notice that the employment and avg workweek

From before: Evercore raised year-end forecast on S&P500 Index to 6,000Deutsche Bank raised its 2024 year-end S&P 500 target to 5,500UBS raises its S&P 500 forecast as high as 5600, 4 reasons for support This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.8%HICP +0.8% vs +0.8% y/y prelimPrior +0.9% No changes to the initial estimates, with Italian inflation being kept in check in recent months. Core annual inflation eased further as well, now seen at 2.0% – down from 2.1% previously. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The PBoC has kept the 1-year MLF interest rate unchanged at 2.5% injects 182bn yuan vs. the 237bn maturing (thus a 55bn yuan drain in MLF from the banking system)for 1 year – What is the MLF? The PBOC’s MLF rate is a benchmark interest rate that banks in China can use to borrow funds

That will not resolve immediately, need more than a monthWe won’t know a lot more about services inflation momentum by JulyBut every meeting is a live oneWe will have a lot of survey data at the next ECB meeting in JulyIf we get welcome surprises on inflation or economy weakens by more than expected, then

Let’s get straight into details and what can we expect from the respective policy meetings this week. RBA – Not one for change With Australian inflation still holding well above the RBA’s threshold range, don’t expect much fireworks from the decision this week. The central bank is expected to keep the bank rate unchanged. And

S&P 500 futures are down 7 points, or 0.1%, ahead of the open. Nasdaq futures are slightly higher as tech outperforms once again. The highlight this week is tomorrow’s US retail sales report but we will also run into a holiday on Wednesday. That could cool this week’s trading through it runs into a big

The Australian dollar is at a one-week low against the US dollar as USD climbs broadly higher following a beat in the June Empire Fed manufacturing survey. The main reading was -6 from -9 but new orders jumped to -1.0 from -16.2 and the six-month index hit a two-year high. The US dollar was already

Today we have Aksel Kibar on the show, an ex-fund manager and a classical chart pattern trader. What’s interesting about Aksel is, he has one of the cleanest charts I’ve seen on Twitter. The post How To Profit With Chart Patterns (With Aksel Kibar) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Fundamental Overview The USD last week lost ground across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed

The Singapore Exchange (SGX) is closed today for Eid al-Adha. Singapore’s absence will think out trading liquidity today during Asia time. — SGX is normally open Monday to Friday (local times): 9:00 am – 12:00 pm — Morning Trading Session 1:00 pm – 5:00 pm — Afternoon Trading Session 5:06 pm – 5:16 pm —

New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) latest report on Consensus Forecasts. Full text is here. For the kiwi dollar: Their broader summary for the NZ economy, saying that the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts: show a further downward revision to the growth outlook for the coming yearForecasts of annual average GDP growth for the years

Cutting to the chase, UBS say the next technical levels below to watch for breaking are: 1.06701.06451.0600 —- This time last week EUR/USD had gapped down to open the new week on the political news out of France. As wrapped up here: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: EUR lower on EU politics While the (politics)

Need to differentiate between noise and signalWe will see bumps in inflation, can deal with thatWe are seeing significant wage increases in some countriesCost pressures to be more muted next year In other words, when the numbers aren’t to their liking then it is ‘noise’. And if the numbers support their case, then it is

Just a simple reminder folks that if you are trading emini US equity futures on the CME the June contract expires this week. There is a lot going on so you may (probably not) have been distracted. Firstly, if you are new to all this, check out: Understanding Futures Expiration & Contract Roll Alternatively, if

China May new home prices -0.71% m/m prior -0.58 -3.9% y/y prior -3.1% Used home prices -1.0% m/m prior -0.94% more to come No recovery yet for house prices in China. Efforts to bolster the sector are continuing, the next opportunity seems to be coming up in July: China may introduce additional measures to boost

The times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format. Williams and Harker look likely to be of most relevance to traders. 1600/1200 Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams moderates a conversation before hybrid event hosted by the Economic Club of New York1700/1300 Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Fundamental Overview The USD last week lost ground across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed

2024 GDP growth forecast seen at +1.2% (previously +1.1%)2025 GDP growth forecast seen at +1.7% (unchanged)2024 CPI forecast seen at +1.4% (previously +1.5%)2025 CPI forecast seen at +1.1% (unchanged) The part on inflation is the more vital part for Switzerland. It fits with what the SNB’s policy plans at least, so that continues to be

New Zealand Performance of Services Index for May 2024, via BusiznessNZ. BusinessNZ headline their report with the dour: “Bottom of the Barrel” lowest for a non-COVID lockdown month since the survey began in 2007 BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope: as bad as it can get for the sector, reaching contraction levels greater than during the

Japanese Core Machinery Orders for April dropped -2.9% m/m first m/m, the first m/m fall in 3 months. However, they didn’t fall as much as expected: Japan Core Machinery Orders (April) -2.9% m/m (vs. expected -3.1%) The ‘not as bad as we expected’ has Japan’s Cabinet Office breaking out the high fives, upgrading their assessment:

Federal Reserve speakers Monday include Williams, Harker and CookEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde and chief economist Lane speaking on MondayAustralian jobs data (May) – ANZ private survey -2.1% m/m and -18.1% y/yDiary note – Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to appear in parliament Monday and TuesdayChina interest rate cuts face internal and external constraintsChina May

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0670 level. If anything else, that will act as a bit of a defensive layer in limiting downside price action before rolling off. It isn’t exactly a technically significant level, though last week’s lows

BOJ may raise rates to 0.5% by end of next yearThat is if economy and prices move in line with forecastsBOJ likely to forgo raising rates in July and wait at least until September For some context, the BOJ is currently purchasing around ¥6 trillion per month. And they will continue with that pace until

Service prices will continue to rise moderatelyThat reflects the increase in wages Just some token remarks there by Ueda. USD/JPY is little changed on the day, sitting at 157.45 currently. The pair had threatened a break higher above the 158.00 mark on Friday last week, only to fall short as yields sank lower. This article

German DAX futures +0.3%UK FTSE futures +0.4% That follows the rough showing by European equities last week, as political angst weighed on the mood. The same will continue to cast a dark cloud over proceedings this week. For today, the overall mood is more tepid with S&P 500 futures marked down by 0.1% currently. This

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will appear in the Diet on Monday 17 June 2024 at 0730 GMT / 0330 US Eastern time. He’ll appear again tomorrow, Tuesday, 18 June 2024 The latest we’ve had from the Bank of Japan is they will cut back on JGB purchases to be announced at the July meeting:

The Reserve Bank of Australia is meeting today and tomorrow, Monday, 17 June 2024 and Tuesday, 18 June 2024. The Bank’s decision is due at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday this is 0430 GMT and 0030 US Eastern time Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will hold her press conference an hour later, at 3.30pm

It is said that the policymakers hadn’t reached a point of discussing the need to dip into their emergency bond-buying scheme to offer support for French debt. However, the sources say that there are varying degrees of concern surrounding French bonds. For some context, French bonds suffered quite a selloff last week after a snap

The People’s Bank of China set its Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate on the 115th of each month. The 15th fell on Saturday so we are going to get it today instead. The rate is currently 2.5%, and there are wide expectations of no change to the rate today. — What is the MLF? The

China interest rate cuts face internal and external constraints, state media says in a front-page article. Reuters citing Chinese state media outlet, Financial News (this outlet is backed by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC)): China still has room to lower interest rates, but its ability to adjust monetary policy faces internal and external constraints”Objectively

Evercore is a “global independent investment bank”. From an analysis note issued Sunday (US time): raised year-end forecast on the S&P 500 Index to 6,0007000 possible by end 2025estimate for the index’s per-share earnings in 2024 and 2025 to $238 and $251, respectively (imply a 8% and 5% profit growth)says the $238 EPS pushed price

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari spoke on Sunday, US time, with US media, CBS’ “Face the Nation”. We need to see more evidence to convince US inflation is heading to 2%US economy is stronger than in other countries that are cutting ratesJob market has performed better than expectedMay be more cooling in labor market

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters citing 5 unnamed sources for this info: European Central Bank policymakers have not discussed emergency bond purchases for France Have no immediate plan to debate using TPI for france Some ECB policymakers would wait until new French govt is formed before any discussion about TPI ** What is TPI? ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI)

There will be quite a number of key risk events this week but they will mostly be in the days to come. Major central bank meetings are back in the fold, with the RBA, SNB, and BOE all on the agenda. But for today, it will be a slower start to the week with little

Lane looks likely to be of the most relevance, but check in for anything from the other two. The times below are in GMT / US Eastern time format: 0800 / 0400 Participation by ECB chief economist Philip R. Lane in on-stage conversation and Q&A at Reuters Newsmakers event in London, United Kingdom I don’t

UBS economist Ning Zhang says China is bracing itself for a trade war with the US under a second Trump presidency. Local media (gated) carry the UBS analysis: In an interview with The Australian during a visit to Australia, Mr Zhang said China was bracing itself for a trade war with the US that could

Japan Core Machinery Orders (April) -2.9% m/m first m/m fall in 3 monthsexpected -3.1%, prior +2.9% +0.7% y/y expected -0.4%, prior +2.7% — The core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series its used as a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months This article was written by Eamonn

Key economic indicators from China for May 2024. Unemployment Rate Urban Area 5.0% prior 5.0% Property Investment YTD for May -10.1% y/y expected -10.0%, prior -9.8% This is a disappointing result for property investment. Chinese authorities have continually boosted efforts to support the troubled sector. Doing so not only benefits the sector, but bolsters consumer

Info comes via Agence France-Presse. Other info also comes from China’s Global Times: Be wary of the bias of Chinese state media. The waters entered are very likely to be international. The ‘control measures’ are likely to be the Chinese ship attacking the P vessel with water cannon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates: EUR/USD 1.0700USD/JPY 157.35GBP/USD 1.2688USD/CHF 0.8910USD/CAD 1.3737AUD/USD 0.6620NZD/USD 0.6133 There is a wee bit of news about over the weekend, I’ll

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued a statement on Sunday: said it’ll further evaluate and refine rules for margin trading and securities lendingwill add to regulation of “illicit” short-selling SCRC says the enhanced measures are to ensure market stability. There is more here at China Global Times. Chinese shares slid last week. This article

Prior to the regular monthly economic activity data covering Retail sales, Industrial output and investment we get House Price data. Efforts continue to stabilise China’s property sector, we’ll get a guide to their relative success with this data today. As for the ‘activity’ data there are some expectations that retailing will have picked up in

Week Ahead 17-21st June: Mon: PBoC MLF, Chinese Activity Data (May), EZ Wages and Labour Costs (Q1) Tue: RBA Announcement, NBH Announcement, EZ Final CPI (May), German ZEW Survey (Jun), US Retail Sales (May), Japanese Trade Balance (May) Wed: BoC Minutes, BCB Announcement, UK Inflation (May), New Zealand GDP (Q1) Thu: BoE Announcement, PBoC LPR

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: PBoC MLF, New Zealand Services PMI, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Eurozone Wage Growth.Tuesday: RBA Policy Decision, Eurozone ZEW, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production.Wednesday: UK CPI, US NAHB Housing Market Index, BoC Meeting Minutes.Thursday: New Zealand GDP, PBoC LPR, SNB Policy Decision, BoE Policy Decision, US Housing Starts and Building

“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.” That’s the first amendment and may prove to be what

RBC says the decision for the Bank of Canada to cut rates as the country has underperformed global peers on a per-capital basis for more than a year. Theyalso say that’s why it’s easier to envision the BOC on a sharper path of easing than other G10 central banks. They envision the Bank of England

French President Emmanuel Macron took the mother-of-all political risks by calling an early election. His hope was that voters would recoil from the far-left and far-right and gravitate to his party. Instead, the opposite has happened. The far left united and a good chunk of his own party wants to join the far right. A

Apple broke higher this week on the back of the new AII news for the company (and its products announced ar the World Wide Developers Confeence. Fundamentally, the hope is the new AI initiatives will stir a new round of product upgrades for its user base. That is something new vs what has been ho-hum

France’s president Macron: Not worried by the impact on markets after decision to dissolve governmentEconomic programs by twoto extremist blocks in parliament election are not realistic.We are at a very serious moment for our country, with major economic issues at stake. Hopes to have agreement on top you jobs quickly This article was written by

The NASDAQ index closed at a new record on Monday at 17192.53. It did the same on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and again today to extend the streak of consecutive high close levels to five trading days. The S&P was on a similar move this week, but close marginally lower today snapping it 4-day record close

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee is speaking and says: CPI data this week was very good. If we got a lot of months like May CPI data, we would be feeling very goodMy feeling was reliefWe got to see some more progressWe are going to get a lot of data between now and September, December meetings

June US UMich June prelim consumer sentiment 65.6 vs 72.0 expectedMacron’s gamble is looking like a disaster as new poll releasedFrance’s Macron: Economic programs by two extremists blocks are not realisticChicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee CPI data this week was very goodBaker Hughes US oil rig count -4ECB’s Lagarde: Unless we have a major shock, target

It’s no surprise that euro longs are bailing with all the turmoil in France. We saw how much in the latest CFTC data, which covers futures up to Tuesday’s close. Net spec longs fell to 44K contracts from 67K. I wouldn’t be surprised if more cashed out later this week due to the pain hitting

Crude oil futures are settling at $78.45. That is down $0.17 and -0.22% The high-priced today reached $79.11. The low price was at $77.75. Looking at the daily chart above, the price high this week moved toward the near converged 100 and 200 day moving averages. Those levels come near $79.45. Going into next week,

Oil -4 to 488Natural gas unchanged at 98 Oil drilling rigs have steadily declined in the past year, though that’s offset somewhat by longer laterals. It bodes poorly for US production growth late this year and into 2025. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Will monitor impact of China’s excess production on Japanese economy.Poised to soon officially announce new sanction package against Russia. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -1.0%German DAX -1.3%UK FTSE 100 -0.1%French CAC -2.7%Italy MIB -2.9%Spain IBEX -0.9% This was the worst week in the Stoxx 600 since October. Does this trend-break matter? A 50% retracement of the rally since October would be a 6.6% decline from here. Meanwhile, the CAC 40 has already retraced 50% of

Ahead of today’s decision, markets fully price in another rate hike by September (assuming another 10 basis point hike). The BoJ remains the only central bank who is expected to raise rates this year. The reason why this hasn’t really provided any support for the JPY is because another 10 or even 20 won’t make

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 rises to 3.1% from 2.6% on June 6 In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on June 7, up from 2.6 percent on June 6. After this morning’s employment

Lagarde was asked about the use of TIPI for France, said it is the duty of ECB to deliver on its inflation mandate This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDJPY corrected higher since the start of the US session, and ran into resistance above between 157.40 and 157.464. Buyers turned to sellers against the level. Going forward, that swing area will be close resistance not only today but in the new trading week. If broken, traders would look toward the May 29 high

US equities are narrowly positive again today with tech leading the way. Of course, it’s Nvidia once again leading the rally with a 2.9% gain. Earlier this week it was Apple rising by as much as 12% as it rolled out some AI features, including AI emojis, that added $380 billion to its market cap.

Prior +2.2%HICP +2.6% vs +2.7% y/y prelimPrior +2.4% The good news at least is that core annual inflation decreased further in May, dropping to 1.7% – down from the 1.9% reading in April. Services inflation also fell slightly but remains sticky at 2.8%. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Underlying economic momentum remains weak and is consistent with disinflation. • Future fiscal policy is expected to lead to lower government spending and so doing support monetary policy • The Q1 GDP data will be critical for the RBNZ in assessing domestic demand and inflation risks. Private consumption and various investment and spending indicators

Prior was -1.1%Manufacturing sales +1.1% vs +1.2% expectedPrior manufacturing sales -2.1% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD started the week testing the low of a swing area (going back to early May) near 0.6579 and also the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 2024 low to the May high near the same level. Sellers pushed the price below that level early on Monday of this week, but

Prior was 67.4Current conditions 62.5 vs 68.8 priorExpectations 67.6 vs 66.5 prior1-year inflation 3.3% vs 3.5% prior5 year inflation 3.1% vs 3.1% prior This isn’t a great indicator and is often political but it wasn’t just Republican, as Democratic sentiment fell to 86.4 from 90.8 last month and 100.2 the month before and is the

The USDCHF rebounded earlier this week in the process extended above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May high to the June low. The level came in at 0.8986. However, momentum cannot be sustained in the price started rotation to the downside helped by the weaker CPI on Wednesday. The low for

• Report issued today by the IAEA makes clear that Iran aims to continue expanding its nuclear program in ways that have no credible peaceful purpose. • We remain in close coordination with our partners and allies and are prepared to continue to increase pressure on Iran should its non-cooperation with the IAEA continue. News

Yesterday, we got another good report as the US PPI missed expectations by a big margin making the market to fully price back two rate cuts by the end of the year. Forecasters can reliably estimate the PCE once the CPI and PPI are out, and the intial estimates show that Core PCE M/M is

As the North American session begins, the CHF is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is mostly stronger to start the US session. Overnight, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain its overnight rates at 0.1% and voted to reduce JGB (Japanese Government Bond) purchases to allow long-term interest rates

The Fed was always going to be late to cut rates and certainly won’t cut them fast enough when the cycle starts. That’s the natural reaction to getting burned by inflation in the covid era. It’s been awhile since we’ve had a ‘normal’ rate cutting cycle so it’s worth a reminder about what happens and

Headlines: USD/JPY pares gains on the day as risk flows weighFrench stocks near the next key technical juncture amid a further drop todayThe Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is expected to ease furtherBOJ governor Ueda: It is important to reduce JGB purchases in a predictable mannerBOJ governor Ueda says will begin tapering bond purchases immediately

Rate cutting is likely to be slower than hiking was.Inflation has slowed markedly in recent months.Risks to the disinflation process remain.Persistent wage gains coould slow disinflation.Services costs and political tensions are other risks.Decisions are to be made meeting by meeting. Vasle is a hawk, so these comments are not surprising. The governing council is anyway

Fundamental Overview The USD was sold across the board on Wednesday following the soft US CPI report. The data made the market to price back in two cuts for this year. Later in the day though we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed that the Fed sees

German DAX futures +0.3%UK FTSE futures +0.4% This comes after another solid showing in Wall Street yesterday, with the S&P 500 recovering late on to finish the day higher. US futures are lightly changed today though. But tech shares are still looking to push higher in what I can only describe as a bit of

The USDCAD this week initially moved lower with the USD selling after the US CPI report on Wednesday. However, the pair ran into technical support at the 100/200 bar MAs on the 4-hour chart and started the bounce higher. See the post here: The subsequent move back to the upside has now retraced the full

He says the decision to do so is to avoid confusion and uncertainty before next month. Well, then he probably shouldn’t have made this comment here last week. Now, that is what causes confusion. As for whether he will pre-announce rate hikes, he just notes that the decision today is an exceptional one i.e. likely

The Michigan survey numbers were much weaker than expectations. Despite the sharp declines, the dollar is steady and trading near highs vs the EUR and GBP. The Michigan survey may be losing some of its bite as politics takes control going into the election. If you are Trump supporter, the situation is dire. If you

This is what regime change in the stock market looks like. On Wednesday, the Russell 2000 surged on a soft CPI report and it bumped higher yesterday on PPI. But here we are at the lows of the week and at a six-week low, as it reversed a 2% gain. For 18 months, the market

France continues to splinter and it looks like Macron’s election gambit could badly backfire, with consequences throughout the union. The euro is down 50 pips today but the real pain is in equities, with the CAC down 2.4% and now flat on the year. Today’s data starts at the bottom of the hour with US

Constantly checking FX moves, sustainability of those moves, and its impact on pricesWill set rates at July meeting while considering reduction in JGB purchases He doesn’t sound like he’s in much of a hurry to take the next step to hike rates further, at least for now. USD/JPY now back up to 158.10 on the

Today’s BoJ decision is a good lesson on source reports. We’ve seen this happen so many times, where info is leaked to markets on what the BoJ is planning to do at an upcoming meeting, only to then see the BoJ not follow through or do something different. There were a few participants expecting the

The turnaround after the US CPI report from Wednesday continues. The dollar is advancing further in European morning trade today, with a weaker euro and yen contributing alongside a softer risk mood in markets. EUR/USD is now down 0.3% to near 1.0700 and that is its lowest level since 2 May. The pair looks poised

Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.6%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.3% The mood music is softening as we get into European trading, with S&P 500 futures also now down by 0.1% on the day. Nasdaq futures are still seen up 0.1% but Dow futures are down 0.2%, as the unhealthy balance in

The US stock markets are open and trading, and the major indices are lower led by the Dow industrial average. For the trading week both the S&P and NASDAQ index are higher as they extended to all-time highs this week. The Dow industrial average is not higher today nor for the trading week. A snapshot

Prior €24.1 billion The overview of the trade situation in the euro area as of April 2024: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective. The EURUSD yesterday moved to a swing area support (between 1.0720 and 1.0734) and found temporary support, but in the Asian session today, that area was broken and it opened the door for further selling momentum. That

Fundamental Overview The USD was sold across the board on Wednesday following the soft US CPI report. The data made the market to price back in two cuts for this year. Later in the day though we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed that the Fed sees

• New Zealand manufacturing pmi prints at 47.2 vs a prior of 48.9 This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Fed and ECB speakers on the wires today…can hardly contain my excitement. On the wires during the EU session: ECB’s Lane (10:00 BST | 05:00 ET) ECB’s de Guindos (10:00 BST | 05:00 ET) ECB’s Schnabel (14:30 BST | 09:30 ET) ECB’s Lagarde (18:30 BST | 13:30 ET) Fed’s Goolsbee (19:00 BST | 14:00 ET)

Decision to reduce JGB purchases is to ensure long-term yields are formed more freelyJapan’s economic, price uncertainties remain highMust pay due attention to financial, FX markets As a reminder to their decision earlier, the announcement was made that they will formulate a detailed plan to reduce bond buying in July. Many market participants expected them

US equities are set for a lower open, though tech is once-again outperforming. S&P 500 futures are down 25 points or 0.45%. Nasdaq futures are down 0.2%. Consider this: Bespoke notes that the Nasdaq 100 Equalweight index was down 0.48% yesterday versus a gain of 0.57% for the regular cap-weighted Nasdaq 100Yesterday, about 160 stocks

In the weeks ahead, we will see a picture of deteriorating data and it will be clear the Bank of Canada is behind the curve. An overnight rate at 4.75% is still very restrictive in an over-leveraged economy. It’s clear from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s latest speech that he wants to ease rates

Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the 12 months after that is seen at 2.6% (vs 2.8% previously). The inflation expectations for 5 years’ time remains unchanged at 3.1% though. As for the public opinion on rates, 42% think it is best for the economy if rates are to go down. That is the highest share in

• New Zealand food price index -0.2 vs 0.6 prior These numbers arguably don’t matter as much as most of the RBNZ’s concern on inflation is fixated on non-tradable inflation right now. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

It is shaping up to be a rather risk averse session in European trading today. Equities are falling across the board and bonds are being bid quite strongly on the session. Of note, France’s CAC 40 index is now down over 2% with S&P 500 futures down 0.4% on the day. And 10-year yields in

It was just last month that French stocks threatened fresh record highs. But after the political events since last weekend, it has been a torrid week for equities in the region. The CAC 40 index in particular is set for its biggest weekly fall since September 2022, with today adding another 1.2% decline. The index

As we head into the Asia-Pac session the EUR is the weakest while the CHF is the strongest. • The weakness in the EUR is a continuation from the current political uncertainty in France. • The CHF is most likely supported (along with the USD) due to the sour risk sentiment in Europe. This article

Some recovery in real wages is inevitableWe should continue to be data-dependent Despite the headline remark, he isn’t as confident to suggest when exactly the ECB can resume cutting rates. For now, July is definitely out of the question. But they’re not pre-committing to a September move for the time being at least. This article

You can see our policy affect the economy, cited housing, growth and labor marketThe question is whether it’s sufficiently restrictive Mester is set to retire next month. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD was sold across the board on Wednesday following the soft US CPI report. The data made the market to price back in two cuts for this year. Later in the day though we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed that the Fed sees

Prior was +0.9%Export prices -0.6% vs 0.0% expectedImport prices 1.1% vs 1.1% prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The size of cut in bond purchases is to be substantialThe specific amount will be decided after listening to input from market participants This is taking the wind out of the sails in USD/JPY a fair bit, with the pair now down to 157.80 from around 158.15 when Ueda began speaking. This article was written

BOJ makes decision on JGB purchases by 8-1 vote.BOJ Board Member Nakamura dissented to decision on JGB purchases.BOJ’s Nakamura dissented to decision on JGB purchases, saying bank should decide to reduce it after reassessing developments in economic activity and prices in July 2024 Outlook Report.Decided to trim bond buying to allow long-term interest rates to

• If you want a fantastic rundown of what the USD/CNY midpoint is look no further than the awesome daily updates from Eamonn. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

No comment on possible market impact from BOJ decisionExpects BOJ to conduct policy appropriately, working closely with government A bit of a verbal pushback there as USD/JPY has risen up to clip the 158.00 mark in trading today. The high earlier touched 158.25, with the pair now trading around 158.05 on the day. This article

Some were leaning towards the bank reducing bond purchases after a Nikkei report suggested it’s a possibility last week. BoJ decided to maintain purchases and JPY not liking it. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Uncertainty is high but the path is leaning towards lower inflationWe can remove some restriction but still need to retain some degree of restrictiveness In other words, he is backing more rate cuts if the data trajectory holds in the months to come. As for market pricing, traders are seeing ~41 bps of rate cuts

Prior +7.2%New yuan loans ¥950.0 bnPrior ¥730.0 bn New bank loans continue to show further signs of moderation, with the above figure missing on estimates of around ¥1.2 trillion. The January to May total stands at ¥11.14 trillion – which is still on the high side. But that owes much to the surge in January,

No love for the EUR at the moment as markets price higher risk premiums given the current political uncertainty in France. It’s important to keep in mind that political risk premiums tend to overshoot, which means at some stage the moves will get overdone and participants will start looking for bargains (be it in the

Heads up that next week Friday is the third Friday of the month and last month of the quarter, which means it’s monthly OpEx quad witching (not related to quads or witches though). Quad witching is when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire simultaneously. These events tend

The dollar showed much resilience in trading yesterday, despite setbacks from a softer PPI report and weekly jobless claims data. A strong bid in the 30-year Treasury auction perhaps underscored some of the bigger flows in markets, with traders shifting their allocation from Europe to the US. The political developments in Europe since last weekend

The price of crude oil futures settled at $78.62. That is up $0.12 or 0.15%. The high for the day reached $78.85. The low for the day was at $77.69. Looking at the hourly chart, the low price today stayed above its rising 100-hour moving average at $77.48. If that moving average can hold support

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

Apart from the volatility in the JPY, the Asia-Pacific session has seen mostly muted flows across major asset classes. Equities: Mostly mixed with North American equity futures mixed with the Russel and Dow lower while the ES and NQ is marginally higher). EMEA equity futures have seen a bit of a bounce but nothing too

The reports over the last week suggested that the BOJ was going to start tapering bond purchases at today’s meeting. Ueda also hinted at that in his speech last week here. That set up market expectations, with the majority anticipating such a move to come this week. But alas, this turns out to be another

The NZDUSD has corrected lower today after extending to a key swing area yesterday on the better CPI and finding sellers. The move lower today has moved down to test the 200-hour MA at 0.6162. Yesterday, the price moved above that MA level on the back of the tamer CPI data. Buyers on the dip,

USDJPY is approaching 157.90 after the BoJ decision. I’m so tired of the intervention talk (will they, won’t they, should they), but it won’t be the first time they disappoint markets on the dovish side and then intervene afterwards so something to keep on the radar though. This article was written by Arno V Venter

US May PPI 2.2% y/y vs +2.5% expectedUS initial jobless claims 242K versus 225K estimateUS Treasury auctions off $22 billion of 30-year bonds at a high-yield of 4.403%Treasury Secretary Yellen: Strong US growth is lifting global growthBOC’s Kozicki: We expect to end quantitative tightening at some point in 2025 Markets: Gold down $19 to $2303WTI

Happy Friday everyone! We don’t have much in the European session today other than some ECB speakers who are going to tell us again that they are data dependent and they won’t pre-commit to anything as they wait for more information before September. The only notable release will be the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

• A 90% majority expecting rates to remain steady next quarter and a 25 basis-point cut to 4.10% projected in the final quarter of this year. • A significant number of economists (63%) forecast interest rates to fall to 4.10% or lower by year-end, while a minority (35%) expect no change. This article was written

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. But barring any surprise moves, they aren’t likely to feature much into play. The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0800-10, which aren’t likely to be of much impact. The euro is weighed down by political angst on the week with the dollar

These levels are based on 1-month implied volatility and can be used as dynamic and market-based levels of support and resistance. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Most noticeable events on the calendar today • The main event during Asia-Pac will of course be the Bank of Japan policy decision, where markets expect no adjustment to rates, but some are expecting the bank to announce a reduction in bond buying (which has been well telegraphed and leaked so unlikely to be a

• South Korea May export prices in won terms +7.5% y/y vs +6.5% in April • South Korea May import prices in won terms +4.6% y/y vs +2.9% in April • South Korea May export prices mark fastest rise y/y since Nov 2022 • South Korea May import prices mark fastest rise y/y since Dec

If you’re wondering what time the BoJ is today… Unfortunately, the bank of Japan never gives us a set time for their policy decision, so the best we can do is a guestimate. We’ll need to be ready for the announcement anytime from 03:30 BST onwards. Have fun! This article was written by Arno V

PBoC injects 2 billion Yuan via 7-day reverse reposSets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Rates: markets are pricing in a close to 91% chance of a hold from the bank (close to 10% chance of a hike) – quite surprised that it isn’t 100%. The recent trend in economic data has been mostly disappointing, with the Citi Economic Surprise Index for Japan showing a consistent string of downside surprises

South Korea and US diplomats hold emergency phone call over possible Putin visit to North Korea according to the Foreign Ministry. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Jump in claims is highest since August last year, indicating a cooling labor market and presenting an upside risk to the Fed’s forecast of maintaining unemployment at 4%. Soft PPI figures increase likelihood of a second consecutive 0.2% or lower MM rise for PCE. Combination of rising claims and soft PPI reinforces argument for cuts