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The USDs reaction has been a modest rise in the USD as the Fed chooses to forecast only 1 cut between now and the year’s end. EURUSD: The EURUSD has moved down toward the 50% midpoint of the June trading range at 1.08175. The price low reached 1.08145. The 100-day MA comes in lower at […]

June 12, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Ya’ll finished with the FOMC dots and such? I can’t promise you so much excitement from the Asian time zone! What we do have is the Australian May employment report, which will be eyed by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Bank is holding its cash rate at its high and seems inclined to do

The press conference begins at 2:30 pm ET and usually lasts around 45 minutes. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Recent indicators suggest economy still growing at a solid paceConsumer spending remains solidGDP has slowed but private domestic final purchases still growing at same pace as H2 2023Labor market has come into better balance but April and May jobs data still strongUnemployment rate ticked up but remains lowA broad set of indicators suggest we’ve returned

Dot plot leaned narrowly towards three rate cuts (two expected today)Median at 3.1% for end-20252024 GDP growth median +1.2%2025 GDP +1.9%Unemployment rate 4.6% in 2024 and 2025 (currently at 4.0%)2024 PCE inflation 2.5%2025 PCE inflation 2.1%2024 core PCE 2.6% 2025 core PCE 2.1% I don’t see big changes here but I’d expect upside risks to

The euro is chewing into its post-ECB losses at an accelerating pace. EUR/USD is up 109 pips to 1.0850 and at the highs of the day. The euro is benefiting from broad US dollar selling and position squaring in the dollar ahead of the FOMC decision at 2 pm. The market is growing more comfortable

Prior -5.2%Market index 208.5 vs 180.4 priorPurchase index 143.7 vs 132.3 priorRefinance index 554.7 vs 432.1 prior30-year mortgage rate 7.02% vs 7.07% prior That’s quite a rebound in mortgage applications in the past week, owing much to a surge higher in refinancing activity. The latter is seen jumping up to its highest since September 2022.

Headline measures: Prior y/y 3.4%m/m +0.2% versus +0.3% expected Prior m/m 0.3% Unrounded % vs +0.313% m/m prior Core measures: Core CPI m/m 0.2% versus +0.3% expected. Prior month 0.3%Unrounded core 0.163% vs +0.290% prior Core CPI y/y 3.4% versus 3.6% expected. Prior month was 3.6%Supercore m/m -0.045% vs +0.422% priorSupercore y/y +4.8% y/yShelter +0.4%

The AUDUSD has moved sharply higher after the better-than-expected US CPI data. The move to the upside has taken the price to the 0.67000 level. Just above that level is the May 2024 high at the same level. The dual level increases the levels importance going forward (and through the FOMC rate decision). Going forward

I think it’s always a good idea to re-read the FOMC statement before the new release. I’ve highlighted areas I will be watching for changes: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained

The Bank of Japan will consider gradually reducing its Japanese government bond holdings in Friday’s rate decision, according to a report from Nikkei. The BOJ purchased 5.8 trillion yen of JGBs in April and 5.7 trillion yen in May but ‘some within the BOJ’ are now discussing lowering that ‘in stages’, according to the report.

Prior was +1233KGasoline +2566K vs +0.891K expDistillates +881K vs +2147KRefinery utilization -0.4% vs -0.3% expected These are bearish numbers and are weighing modestly on oil prices, which were up $1.20 ahead of the release. Private numbers yesterday: Crude -2428KGasoline -2549KDistillates +972K This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USD moved lower after the tamer than expected US CPI data. The Fed now has 2 successive months of easing inflation and that is despite a 0.4% rise in shelter (if only that cracked). The data helped to push stocks higher in pre-market trading (S&P, Nasdaq are trading a new all-time highs). Yields are

The USDCAD moved lower on the better-than-expected CPI data, and the oil has now taken the price to the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the four hour chart between 1.3679 and 1.3684. So far that level has been able to hold support. It would take a move below that level to increase the

Markets are in a more tentative mood so far today and understandably so. It’s going to be a blockbuster day in US trading, so there won’t be much conviction at least in European trading. All eyes will be on the main events later, that being the US CPI report and the FOMC meeting decision. On

USD/JPY is down a full cent on the heels of the CPI report in response to a downside surprise in the May inflation reading. It’s part of a broad wave of US dollar selling across the board and a strong bid in bonds, led by the front end. The Fed funds market is now pricing

The Canadian dollar is underperforming today and at first the move is puzzling but at second looks shows why it makes sense. The loonie is up 0.5% today and that’s a good gain but it’s far short of the +1.2% for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The loonie is also underperforming the pound, yen

There are a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The ones for AUD/USD will matter more for the session ahead at least. They are layered between 0.6615 to 0.6630 and should keep price action more contained before we get to the main events later today. The US CPI report

The strong buyers at yesterday’s 10-year auction may have been the tell. Real money bought heavily despite a stronger non-farm payrolls report and CPI uncertainty. Today they’re certainly happy they did as they locked in 4.438% compared to cash rates at 4.288% now. Yields are down 11.5 bps in the aftermath of a CPI report

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +1.2%German DAX +1.5%UK FTSE 100 +1.0%French CAC +1.1%Italy MIB +1.4%Spain IBEX +0.7% Maybe a swing to the right isn’t so bad after all. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF has fallen after better US CPI data,but found support buyers against a key swing area between 0.8880 and 0.88916. The price also fell below the 200-day moving average at 0.8896. The price has since bounced higher. Going forward, it would take a move below the 0.8880 level to add to the bearish bias.

Australian Treasurer Chalmers remarks: visit of China’s Premier Li to Australia an important opportunitysays he sees underlying weakness in China’s economySays China’s economy won’t be recovering immediatelysays Australia’s economy is not going to experience stagflationcalls for quicker moderation of inflation Not sure what Chalmers “calls for quicker moderation of inflation” means. Inflation doesn’t listen to

Remarkable trading run: $200 to $190,000 in 4 Hours The exclusinve video interview above by ForexLive.com is not new, but is still SO GOOD, that we had to repost it. And, yes, it is real. The video above tells the story of a young trader who achieved an incredible feat: turning just $200 into $190,000

The EURUSD has moved sharply higher on the back of the CPI data. The move earlier today, found sellers initially ahead of the 200 hour MA at 1.09326. However, the corrective move lower also found support buyers against the 50% midpoint of the June trading range at 1.08175. That gave the buyers a go-ahead to

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger since last Friday following the US NFP report where the data surprised with solid jobs and wage growth. There were also negatives like the uptick in the unemployment rate, but all in all, we can say that it was a good report. The data triggered a hawkish repricing

US stock markets are set to open at a record high following a softer CPI that clears the way for the Federal Reserve to signal two rate cuts this year. S&P 500 futures are up 47 points, or 0.9% to a record high. Look for rate-sensitive trades to outperform today but I also suspect we

The data shows a big jump for PPI both m/m and y/y. If it translates into higher consumer level inflation the Bank of Japan will be happy. USD/JPY has dipped down to circa 157.08 as I am updating. — The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index

He also reaffirms that he will not resign if his faction does not come out as the victors in the upcoming snap election. As a reminder, the first round of voting is set for 30 June. Then, the second round of voting will take place on 7 July. If Le Pen’s faction is the winner

The US CPI data for the month of May came in softer than expected with the quarter CPI Ed 0.2% versus 0.3%. The headline CPI feminine 0.0% versus 0.1%.. The YoY for core was at 3.4% (the lowest level since April 2021). The headline came in at 3.3% vs 3.4% estimate (unchanged) The market is

The dollar bulls are showing some angst ahead of CPI. Generally that reveals the bias in the market or which side is more crowded. US dollar bulls may be covering on fears of a softer number or at least enough softer details to show that broad prices are coming down. Combine that with Powell’s bias

63 of 65 economists expect BOE to cut rates starting AugustAll economists polled expect there to be no change to rates later this month35 of 65 economists see two rate cuts by the BOE for this year24 of 65 economists see three rate cuts by the BOE for this yearOnly 3 of 65 economists anticipate

UBS reiterated their positive view on gold – buy dipsUS CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates to knowRecapping the inflation data from Japan earlier- higher but might slow BOJ rate hikesECB speakers on Wednesday include Schnabel, Villeroy, Vujcic, de GuindosChina May CPI +0.3% y/y (expected +0.4%) and PPI -1.4% y/y (expected -1.5%)China is

Fundamental Overview Despite the recent OPEC+ extension of the voluntary output cuts, Crude oil sold off as the price broke the support of the May range. The drop though might have been just technical as the bearish momentum picked up on the breakout. The price eventually bottomed around the $73 region and erased all the

The major US Stock indices are moving to the upside after the better-than-expected US CPI data. The gains in the three major indices are led by the NASDAQ index up 1.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 is surging by 2.60%. A snapshot of the market 10 minutes into the open is is showing: Dow Industrial Average

As the North American session begins, the CHF is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest of the major currencies. The USD is mostly lower (but modestly) with declines vs all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY ahead of the US CPI and the Federal Reserve rate decision. The US CPI

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The presser was supposed to be scheduled for Tuesday but he needed more time to prepare his words following the events over the weekend. There were murmurs about a potential resignation announcement yesterday but that has since been refuted. So, that is not likely to be on the cards for today at least. Considering that

US consumer inflation data: for May 2024due at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time Preview here: Preview: Eyes will be on every detail of the May CPI report This snapshot is from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. It shows the consensus estimate and the April (prior) result: The numbers in

German DAX futures +0.3%UK FTSE futures +0.4% It comes as Wall Street produced a decent showing overnight, especially towards the closing stages. But for European equities, there is still the hangover from the political angst since the weekend. Looking to US futures, they are little changed with S&P 500 futures seen up marginally by 0.1%.

Eurostoxx +0.4%Germany DAX +0.5%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% It has been a rough showing over the last two days for European equities, particularly French stocks. The CAC 40 got off to a better start yesterday only to fall by 1.3% by closing time. So, the slight bounce today isn’t

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger since last Friday following the US NFP report where the data surprised with solid jobs and wage growth. There were also negatives like the uptick in the unemployment rate, but all in all, we can say that it was a good report. The data triggered a hawkish repricing

There is speculation the Bank of Japan will trim back JGB purchases in its announcement from Friday’s meeting: Nikkei: Bank of Japan will ‘consider’ whether to scale back its monthly JGB purchases Ni change in today’s amounts purchased though. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: A big day coming up for marketsWhat are the main events for today?France’s Macron calls for democratic parties to unite to form a governing pactFrance’s Macron: I do not want to hand the keys of power to the far-right in 2027UK April monthly GDP 0.0% vs 0.0% m/m expectedGermany May final CPI +2.4% vs

Russell 2000 technical analysis and trade Idea for traders before the FOMC meeting📈💡 Based on the attached chart and the highlighted guidance, here’s a detailed trade idea for Russell: Let’s break down the key elements of this trade setup: Retest:The price action appears to be revisiting a previous support level (horizontal line) after a pullback.

Prior +0.4%Services +0.2% m/mPrior +0.5%Industrial output -0.9% m/mPrior +0.2%Manufacturing output -1.4% m/mPrior +0.3%Construction output -1.4% m/mPrior -0.4% Looking at the breakdown contribution, services was up (+0.19%) and that is offset by falls in production (-0.11%) and construction (-0.09%) on the month. All in all, this will continue to keep the BOE on its toes as

US auctions $38B of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.438%Timiraos: Fixation on dot plot obscures ‘remarkable cohesion’ on the Fed’s stanceFitch: France snap election increases fiscal and reform uncertaintyEIA raises its forecast for 2024 and 2025 world oil demandWorld Bank boosts 2024 global GDP growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.4%ECB’s Makhlouf: I’m

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger since last Friday following the US NFP report where the data surprised with solid jobs and wage growth. There were also negatives like the uptick in the unemployment rate, but all in all, we can say that it was a good report. The data triggered a hawkish repricing

The times below are GMT/US Eastern time format. I’ve bolded those that are more likely to be of interest to traders: 0600/0200 ECB policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau speak on France’s Radio Classique 0830/0430 European Central Bank Policymaker and Croatia’s Central Bank Governor Boris Vujcic gives a lecture about his country’s “inflationary and macroeconomic developments

HSBC on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today, Wednesday, 12 June 2024 Analysts at the bank say there is some hawkish risk around this meetingExpect any subsequent rates volatility is unlikely to “spike to levels from last year, let alone from 2022″And thus any weakness in risk assets “to be both short-lived and

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger since last Friday following the US NFP report where the data surprised with solid jobs and wage growth. There were also negatives like the uptick in the unemployment rate, but all in all, we can say that it was a good report. The data triggered a hawkish repricing

Today is going to be a big day for the markets as we get the US CPI and the FOMC decision on the same day. The last time it happened was in June 2020. I would argue that the US CPI will be the real mover as it will drive markets’ expectations for the FOMC

Even before the snap election announcement was made, we already warned on the hazards surrounding the political environment in France Villeroy does reassure that inflation will continue to stay on track regardless though. And that he foresees French inflation falling back below 2% next year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.2%HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelimPrior +2.4% No changes to the initial estimates with core annual inflation seen at 3.0%. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Citizens have expressed their concerns and difficulties through the latest votesWe must bring a democratic responseIt is a historic moment for FranceThere is a need for dialogue and how best to serve the French peopleCalls for social democrats, Greens, and Christian democrats to unite for a governing pact He was fashionably late to the press

The third plenary session of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee will be held in Beijing in July. There is talk about from China sources that the government may introduce additional measures to boost the housing market in these Sessions This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s press conference due on Wednesday, 12 June 2024 at 1400 and 1430 US Eastern time respectively (1800 and 1830 GMT) are US CPI data for May 2024. due at 0830 US Eastern time (1230 GMT) Fed ‘insider’ at the Wall Street

And he’s now saying that he wants all remaining Bitcoin “to be made in the US”, whatever that means. He’s probably trying to promote the idea that he will be an advocate for Bitcoin miners. But to say that all remaining Bitcoin will be made in only the US itself, it speaks to his understanding

2024 global oil demand growth forecast lowered by 100k to 960k bpd2025 global oil demand growth forecast seen at 1 mil bpd amid muted economic outlookGlobal oil demand set to peak by 2029 at 105.6 mil bpdBy 2030, oil supply capacity will rise to nearly 114 mil bpd or 8 mil bpd above global demand

X Open Hub, the leading provider of enterprise-grade liquidity and trading technology solutions known industry-wide for its “fully open environment”, announced its participation at iFX EXPO International 2024, the largest industry gathering bringing together FX and fintech players under one roof. Taking place between 18-20 June 2024, in Limassol, Cyprus, the expo promises a combination

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Sovcomflot tankers have been carrying out ship-to-ship transfers of Russian crude oil. Bloomberg reporting that the the EU is taking steps to sanction the firm. Doing so would be another crimp on Russian revenues. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

That will make for quite a blockbuster session later in US trading. In the first half, there is the US CPI report to react to. But one also has to consider the Fed policy decision when we get to the second half to any market reaction today. Fun times, eh? Adam provided a good overview

Earlier in the session we had higher inflation reported from Japan, PPI/Corporate Goods Price Index: Japan PPI (May) +0.7% m/m (expected +0.4) and +2.4% y/y (expected +2.0%) the fastest annual pace in nine months While higher inflation seems, on the face of it, an argument for the Bank of Japan to carry on hiking interest

CPI and PPI data from China for May 2024 CPI -0.1% m/m prior +1.0% CPI +0.3% y/y expected +0.4%, prior +0.3% PPI +0.2% m/m prior % PPI -1.4% y/y expected -1.5%, prior -2.5% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US dollar bulls are suddenly getting cold feet. A strong auction of 10-year notes today highlighted a bond market that’s less-concerned about inflation or the Fed. That’s been a green light to buy risk assets and sell the US dollar. Earlier today the pound sank against the US dollar but it’s since made a complete

We are accustomed to seeing Nvidia, Apple, and other tech giants basking in AI glory. But what if it’s only the tip of the iceberg? It seems so, as all analytics overlooked a sharp rise in Hewlett-Packard stock. Let’s examine what boosted the stock price by more than 10% and its connection to artificial intelligence.

Rick Rieder is BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income. He spoke with Dow Jones / Market Watch in an interview ahead of today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Like many, he expects the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), its “dot plot”, to show two rate cuts expected in 2024, down from

Bloomberg (gated) had this report that has seemed to slip by a little too quietly. Bloomberg interviewed Pimco’s head of global private commercial real estate team. Pacific Investment Management Co (PIMCO) expects more regional bank failures in the US because of a “very high” concentration of troubled commercial real estate loans on their books: “The

Analysts at UBS reiterated their positive view on gold, saying dips should be bought. Gold dipped late last week on China’s pause in buying in May, the strong NFP, strong earnings, higher US Treasury yields and higher USDUBS point to a sign of weakness in the jobs report, the jobless rate climbing to 4% &

A report from analaysts at JP Morgan Private Bank outline a favourable view for equities in Japan: “In our view, share prices do not yet fully reflect the market’s full potential. Although Japanese stocks currently trade in the midrange of their valuations over the past 15 years, global positioning remains underweight Japanese equities”We think multiples

Later today, Wednesday, 12 June 2024, we get the US consumer inflation data. for May 2024due at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time This snapshot is from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. It shows the consensus estimate and the April (prior) result: The numbers in the right-most column are the

Via a UBS Global Wealth Management note, forecasting EUR/USD to 1.09 by the end of this year and 1.11 by March 2025. Citing political uncertainty could prove a near-term headwind for the euro But following this: an improving growth outlook should help later this year The political uncertainty UBS is referring to is the snap

Bloomberg with the report saying that China is considering banning banks distributing hedge fund products Chinese banks are a major source of distribution of hedge fund products.The products are usually offered in the form of trust products, these are subsequently invested into the funds. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The day ends with another record close for both the S&P and the Nasdaq. Both those indices moved higher into the close and closed at session highs. The Dow and small-cap Russell 2000 closed lower on the day. At the close: Dow Industrial Average was felt -120.64 points or -0.31% at 38747.43S&P index rose 14.53

Update, moving this to the top of the post. If you’ve lost money due to the outage Apex says they’ll make that right: If you are a user of Apex Trader Funding (ATF), as I know many are, you may very well have experienced outages this week (and other times!). Its been an issue with

The IMF with words of advice for the BOC. Reuters with the report, in summary: strengthening communications could include explanations on how quickly the BoC thinks the policy rate could return to neutralcan also better communicate on how it views market expectations regarding the evolution of the policy rate The Bank of Canada fobbed them

The price of crude oil futures is settling at $77.90. That is up $0.15 or 0.21%. Looking at the hourly chart below, the price how I tested the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April high to the June low. That retracement level comes in at $78.22. The high price was just above

Via oilprice.com: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.05mn barrelsDistillates +1.6mn bblsGasoline +0.9mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are quite different.The official

Inflation data from China is on the agenda today while we all await US inflation data later then the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Headline CPI is expected to tick up marginally y/y. Wholesale level inflation, PPI, is also expected higher, but to remain showing deflation. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access

Is the great inflation scare almost over? Or are we just warming up for the second chapter? Markets and Federal Reserve officials are on edge as they try to figure out where prices are headed next and if 5% Fed funds are too high, too low or just right. The stakes are especially high in

The US dollar came under pressure after a surprisingly strong auction of US 10-year notes. Demand was expected to be tepid ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report and the FOMC decision but bids were 2 bps below where the market was trading and the $39 billion in new supply was easily absorbed. That was all-the-more surprising

WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos is out with his preview of tomorrow’s FOMC decision and he highlights that while there will be differences in the dot plot, the main message from everyone at the Fed is that they want to wait and see on the data and will do what’s necessary after seeing it. He notes

EIA rases forecast for 2024 world oil demand by 180k bpd, now sees 1.1 mbpd increaseRaises 2025 forecast by 80k bpd, now sees 1.5m y/y increaseSees US 2025 output up 470k bpd vs 530k bpd prior If those increases hit, it still won’t be enough to soak up all the spare OPEC capacity. These are

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $38 billion of tenure notes at the top of the hour. This is the second of two coupon auctions. The treasury will auction off 30 year bonds on Thursday – a day after the FOMC rate decision. The six-month averages of the major components shows: Bid to cover 2.50XTail:

Fundamental Overview The USD came back with a vengeance last Friday following the strong US NFP report where the data surprised with solid job and wage growth. There were also negatives like the uptick in the unemployment rate, but all in all, we can say that it was a good report. The data triggered a

Fitch is on the wires sayin: France’s snap election heightens fiscal and reform uncertaintyCalling of snap election in France has increased uncertainty around policy settings.Outcome to influence the scope, nature of fiscal consolidation measures, and may increase challenges to policy implementation.Expect France to be placed under excessive deficit procedure this year. This article was written

APPL stock technical analysis for 2024: key levels to watch 🎯 From what I see and show in the below technical analysis video, there are crucial levels you need to watch. Get ready to take action when the price reaches these points. 📊 Why you should watch: 📈 Identify key levels: Learn about the critical

Still have many degrees of flexibility to react to upside or downside shocksHave a good degree of confidence at arriving at 2% inflation target As much as he is trying to sell that they are flexible, there’s only one outlook on their policy stance right now. And that is for lower rates. That especially since

High yield:4.438%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.458%Tail -2.0 BPs vs 6 month average of 1.1 bpsBid to cover: 2.60X vs 6-month average or 2.50XDirects: 13.81% vs 6 month average of 17.53%Indirects: 74.6% vs 6 month average of 65.42%Dealers:11.59% vs 6 month average of 17.03% Auction grade:A- The only disappointment is that the

The NZDUSD fell sharply on Friday and fell below its 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart. That level comes in at 0.6136. The first two days of the trading week has seen the price move up toward that moving average level. The price of the EURUSD got within four pips of it in trade

The GBPUSD moved lower in the Asian and early morning European session, but stalled the fall after buyers leaned against a swing area between 1.2674 and 1.2685. The 38.2% retracement of the move up from the May 9 low is also in that area. The subsequent bounce has taken the price up to retest its

ANZ is one of Australia’s biggest four banks. Like many others analysts, the bank had been tipping a late 2024 rate cut from the RBA. Persistent sticky high inflation has seen them push that out now from November this year to February next year: then a further cut in April 2025then one more in Q4

The winds of political change are blowing in the west. Meloni broke through in Italy and next it could be France’s turn. The snap election call by French President Macron is a huge political gamble and the euro bulls aren’t sure they want to stay on for the ride through the first round vote on

When investors add stocks to their portfolios, they expect them to appreciate. But what drives this growth, or more accurately, what needs to happen for stocks to rise? Traditionally, the key has been a solid quarterly or annual report that beats analysts’ or the company’s earnings or revenue forecasts. Take Nvidia, for example. Even though

TradeLocker is the next-gen trading platform built by listening to the needs and preferences of over 2.5 million traders to deliver intuitive, fast, and community-driven trading experiences anytime, anywhere. It emerged as a response to the lack of innovation in the trading industry. Mainstream trading platforms failed to engage directly with their user base and

The price of a Bitcoin is down sharply in trading today, and has moved down to test it 100-day moving average at $66,723. The low price for the day has reached $66,529. That low is below the 100-day moving average,but still within a swing area (see green numbered circles on the chart above) between $66,343

We are monitoring actual inflation data, in particular for servicesMonthly figures will be volatile due to base effects on energyThis “noise” is not very meaningfulWe are still more outlook drivenRemains confident that inflation will be back to 2% target next yearWill reach inflation target along with a soft landing The point they are trying to

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest. The USD is mostly higher with declines only vs the GBP but gains are relatively modest with changes vs the JPY, CHF and NZD 0.05% to 0.08% from yesterday’s closing level. The GBP is stronger despite higher unemployment

Headlines: The waiting game continuesECB’s Lane: We are not pre-committing to a particular rate pathECB’s Lane: We will be agile on interest ratesECB’s Rehn: Monetary policy has dampened price pressuresECB’s Villeroy: We have leeway to lower rates before exiting restrictive stanceBOJ to begin tapering bond purchases at this week’s meeting – pollUK April ILO unemployment

In response to increasing investor demand for more cost-effective trading solutions, FP Markets, a global multi-asset Forex and CFD broker, has further reduced its spreads across various trading instruments. Christodoulos Psomas, Head of Risk at FP Markets, expressed his enthusiasm for the move and commented: ‘Through the continuous optimisation of our trading infrastructure, we have

Rates are to stay sufficiently restrictive for as long as neededThere is still high level of uncertaintyPrice pressures are still elevated and is evident in indicators for domestic inflationEconomic activity is recovering This is mainly a rehash of Lagarde’s remarks from last week. Don’t expect anything different from the ECB until we get to the

Fundamental Overview The strong US NFP report last Friday led to some defensive risk sentiment in the S&P 500 as we head into the US CPI and FOMC decision tomorrow. In the big picture, the data didn’t change much but it added a bit of uncertainty into the market which is now waiting for the

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% For French stocks, it isn’t too much comfort but at least the gap lower from yesterday is being cut by quite a bit. The CAC 40 opened the week closer towards 7,800 but is already up 1.4% from its lows yesterday.

Today the main event was the UK jobs data. We got another mixed bag with a further uptick in the unemployment rate but wage growth remaining sticky at elevated levels. This hasn’t changed much for the market as it continues to fully price the first 25 bps cut in November with a total of 35

There has been considerable progress in bringing inflation down to target These are still largely remarks to justify their rate cut from last week. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

I’m not uncomfortable with little more than market pricing of one rate cut this year and 90 bps by the end of 2025Future rate decisions no just all about wages, need to keep close eye on particular risks from global and European conflicts This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters with the info: Vietnam is expected to allow companies to import gold for the first time in over a decade, as it aims to bridge the widening gap between local prices and international benchmarks, an industry official told Reuters The Vietnam Gold Traders Association (VGTA) has been in protracted talks with the government over

Hunter Biden faces up to 10 years for the first felony, five for the second and another 10 for the third, along with fines of up to $250,000 for each of them and up to three years of supervised release. A first time offender hardly ever receives the maximum sentence but Joe Biden says he

20 of 32 (~63%) economists project the BOJ would make a decision on bond buying5 of 32 (~16%) economists project the BOJ would decide in July instead3 of 32 (~9%) economists project the BOJ would decide in September instead49 of 53 (~92%) economists anticipate that the BOJ would hike rates to at least 0.20% by

During his trip, Li will be visiting Adelaide, Canberra, and Western Australia. He will be meeting with Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese, as well. I guess that’s a sign of improving relations between the two and they could do with leaning more on one another at this point. For some context, China is still Australia’s

After months of anticipation, the final countdown towards one of the most hyped events of the year, iFX EXPO International 2024, is officially underway in Limassol, Cyprus. This landmark B2B event has established itself as an annual tradition for the online trading industry, attracting thousands of attendees, leading brands, and a wide range of participants.

The market is having second thoughts about Apple’s AI strategy. Early reviews of yesterday’s Apple event that released an OpenAI integration were poor, with the stock falling 2%. Analysts weighed in though and now the market is thinking this could lead to an upgrade cycle and the shares are up more than 5% to an

To balance their outlook, they raised to Q2 2024 forecast by 50k bpd instead. That sees the total 2024 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 2.25 mil bpd. For 2025, that figure is also left unchanged at 1.85 mil bpd. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The sellers in the EURUSD has extended to a new session low, and the price has now moved below the low of a swing area between 1.0722 and 1.07346. Sellers are taking more control. Key break. Can the the sellers keep the momentum going. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

January forecast was +2.4%US growth seen at 2.5% vs 1.6% in JanChina seen at 4.8% vs 4.5%India seen at 6.6% vs 6.4% priorSees 2.7% global growth in 2025 and 2026World Banks says that if interest rates stay higher for longer, then global growth could be 2.4% next yearFull report This is all about the US,

The AUDUSD sellers had their shot yesterday with the brakes below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 19 low. That level came in at 0.6579. The low prices yesterday fell to 0.6575 but stalled. Sellers turn to buyers and pushed the price higher. The sellers had their shot and missed. The

Buyers in the USDCAD are making a play with a move to new highs in early North American trading. Last week the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points. The Federal Reserve starts there today meeting today and is expected to keep rates unchanged. Stronger jobs on Friday helped to push the USDCAD

The reading represents the highest for the year so far, though it remains below the 50-year average of 98 for the 29th month running. For some context, the last time the reading was at or above the average was all the way back in December 2021. Looking at the details, the uncertainty index rose up

In Europe, politics continue to steal the show with rumours circulating on French president Macron’s potential resignation. Those murmurs have since been denied but it speaks to the delicate situation in the room at the moment. The euro is down again slightly on the day, with EUR/USD lower by 0.2% to 1.0737. EUR/GBP is also

The USDCHF trade in a narrow range to start the North American session (only about 24 pips which is less than half of what is normal) however the price is back above its 200 hour moving out at 0.89641. If the price can stay above that level and then extend above the 38.2% retracement of

The major US stock indices opening a lower. The small-cap Russell 2000 is leading the way with a decline of near 1%. The S&P and NASDAQ indices both closed at record levels yesterday, and both are trading lower in early US trading. A snapshot five minutes into the open is showing: Dow Industrial Average was

The kickstart video takes a look at three the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – at the start of the North American session. The EURUSD is moving lower and is testing a key swing area between 1.0722 and 1.07346 at the start of the North American session. That level will be

Both the S&P index and the NASDAQ index are on pace for record closes. For the NASDAQ index the high closing level is at 17187.90. The current price is trading at 17195.90 up 62.55 points or 0.37%.For the S&P index it high closing level comes in at 5354.04. The current price is trading at 5360.19

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s good to be back. I dealt with a family matter for the past week or so but all is well now and I have one day to get back into the full swing of things ahead of tomorrow’s huge day: CPI and the FOMC. The highlight today is a $39 billion 10-year reopening. There

China’s major state-owned banks seen selling dollars for yuan in onshore spot FX. Reuters report, citing four people with knowledge of the matter. Earlier: Onshore yuan (CNY) has dropped to its weakest since mid-November 2023 Giving the bid This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD came back with a vengeance last Friday following the strong US NFP report where the data surprised with solid job and wage growth. There were also negatives like the uptick in the unemployment rate, but all in all, we can say that it was a good report. The data triggered a

Prior was -11.7%Residential +21.0% vs -8.3% priorNon-residential +19.6% vs -16.7% priorTotal permit value at $12.8% billion On a constant-dollar basis, permits are at the highest since June 2023. British Columbia rose 75.2% and posted a record high monthly total value of building permits ($3.1 billion), leading the monthly increases in both residential and non-residential sectors

ICYMI, French President Macron called a snap election just in time for the opening of Asian FX in super-ultra-thin liquidity on Monday: Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 10 June 2024EU politics – French President Macron has called a snap election. EUR/USD a touch lower.Projections have centrist parties retaining majority in the

National Australia Bank Business Survey for May 2024 Business Confidence -3 prior revised to 2 Business Conditions 6 prior 7conditions tends to be a more objective measure than the confidence (sentiment) measure Ugly. Inflation indications are not encouraging: Quarterly growth in retail prices jumped to 1.6% from 1.0%Increases in labour costs and purchasing costs up

Prior 4.3%Employment change -140k vs -100k expectedPrior -177kAverage weekly earnings +5.9% vs +5.7% 3m/y expectedPrior +5.7%; revised to +5.9%Average weekly earnings +6.0% vs +6.1% 3m/y expectedPrior +6.0%May payrolls change -3kPrior -85k; revised to -36k The jobless rate creeps up further to its highest since September 2021. It reaffirms that labour market conditions in the UK

A snippet from Bank of Montreal on the new widening monetary policy divergence, addressing “how long Powell can retain terminal as the ECB and Bank of Canada have started normalizing rates lower’. There are a few conceivable outcomes assuming that global central banks aren’t comfortable with an ever-widening divergence of policy rates 1. FOMC could

The US dollar has been supported against the yuan by interest rate differentials, US Treasury yields have firmed again since the very strong jobs data (NFP headline +272K) at the end of last week. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan reference rate at its weakest since January 19 today: PBOC sets USD/

Fundamental Overview The USD came back with a vengeance last Friday following the strong US NFP report where the data surprised with solid job and wage growth. There were also negatives like the uptick in the unemployment rate, but all in all, we can say that it was a good report. The data triggered a

Fundamental Overview The strong US NFP report last Friday triggered some defensive positioning in Bitcoin as we head into the US CPI and FOMC decision tomorrow. In the big picture, the data didn’t change much but it added a bit of uncertainty into the market which is now waiting for the US CPI to clear

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.1% European indices were marked down by political angst over the weekend to start the week. But the mood music is looking calmer today at least, with a light bounce observed in early trade. US futures remain more muted, with S&P 500 futures looking flat. There’s not much to

We’ve had May Money Suppy data from Japan. This is not a market mover but FWIW its come in at +1.9% y/y vs. +2.1% expected and +2.6% in April The Bank of Japan meet this week and yen traders are on edge over the question of further tightening from the Bank. If we get anhy

Yuan intervention – China’s major state-owned banks seen selling USD/CNYEuropean Commission expected to announce Chinese electric vehicle (EV) tariffs this weekOnshore yuan (CNY) has dropped to its weakest since mid-November 2023Bloomberg: Chinese Builder Dexin Receives Liquidation Order From Hong Kong CourtToyota’s vehicle certification misconduct may violate UN standardsChina doing a Chuck Norris on gold –

[Key takeaways] ● At its May meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%, marking the sixth consecutive time it has remained unchanged. ● The likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September has increased significantly, rising from 50% to 70% during the first week of June due

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

JP Morgan says a Labour win in the UK election would be a net positive for UK markets: Labour party is occupying a centrist platformperception of policy paralysis is set to move behind usLabour agenda is modestly pro-growthwith a likely cautious fiscal approach Much of the note is picking apart impacts on various sectors of

The US has already done so: tariffs on Chinese EVs roughly quadrupled The European Commission will announce their tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) this week. Info via Reuters, more there. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Apple stock technical analysis following AI strategy launch event 🤖 Hello, this is Itai Levitan from ForexLive.com, providing a detailed technical analysis of Apple stock after the company unveiled its Apple Intelligence (AI) strategy. This analysis examines the market’s reaction and the implications for investors and traders. 📈📉 Event overview and market reaction 🌟 Apple’s

It’s been a slower start to proceedings as markets are on edge ahead of the main events coming up later in the week. The euro fell yesterday but it owed to political angst over the weekend. Besides that, major currencies saw no follow through to the US jobs report from Friday last week. It means

Another one bites the dust in China’s drowning- in-debt property sector. Bloomberg is gated. Dexin is not a huge developer, described as ‘medium sized’. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. That speaks to the lack of interest in price levels for today mostly. The main events in markets will only kick off tomorrow, so there is not much appetite to really chase anything until then. And that is exemplified by the expiries board

Coming up today: 0700 GMT / 0300 US Eastern time: ECB Governing Council policymaker and French central bank governor François Villeroy de Galhau is due to speak at a Europlace financial conference in Paris 1100 GMT / 0700 US Eastern time: Fireside chat with ECB chief economist Philip R. Lane at the Banking and Payments

China is the world’s biggest official sector buyer of gold. In May the People’s Bank of China ‘paused’ buying, higher prices cited: GOLD ICYMI: People’s Bank of China completely stopped buying last month Gold folks expect the buying to resume soon. “China’s data did show a pause,” David Tait, CEO of the World Gold Council

UBS raised the question … sometimes just raising the question is worrying enough. To cut to the chase UBS says a rate hike won’t happen. “Overall, we keep our view that the U.S. economy is slowing”Rate hikes are unlikely, while the report was stronger than expected but is still not enough to warrant any rate

This has been ongoing for some time, irregularities in applications to certify certain models of vehicles. I posted here for background: Japan’s transport ministry ordered Toyota, Mazda,Yamaha to suspend some vehicle shipments Reuters conveying the latest info reported by Japanese media, Yomiri: Japan’s transport ministry has concluded that six cases of irregularities in vehicle certifications

Thisnkg heating up on the Korean peninsula. Yonhap with the info on the border crossing. Says it was brief. Getting shot at would keep it brief, yeah. South Korean military says the intrusion was unintentional. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a light data calendar today. National Australia Bank Business Survey for May and Money Supply for May from Japan are of only lower-tier importance. Hong Kong, China and Australia are all back from a Monday holiday long weekend. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column

S&P and NASDAQ indices close at record levels. Dow pushes into positive territory at closeCrude oil futures settle at $77.74The EURUSD bounced off a swing area support and is back testing retracement targetsU.S. Treasury sells $53 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 4.659%ECB Pres. Lagarde: Rates not necessarily on a linear

Writing just before the Monday pop higher for crude, Bank of America analysts says oil prices were reflecting any risk premium at all, “zero”. Said it was trading cheap. Ahead: oil the “best upside hedge for pre-US election geopolitical risk”there is “no Goldilocks in Geopolitics as global players not too focused on de-escalation”and that oil

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

MUFG outlook for the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the implications for the US dollar. in brief: “The strong employment report increases the risk of the Fed providing a more hawkish policy update”expects the Fed to signal a delay to rate-cut plans due to inflation staying elevated … “The power of the

Japan finance minister Suzuki says important we continue efforts to achieve fiscal healthusage of frozen Russian assets needs to be in compliance with international law. And that’s it so far. If he says anything on the currency I’ll get it posted. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures settle at $77.74. That is up $2.21 or 2.93%. The high price reached $77.92. The low price reached $75.29. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major stock indices all closed higher today. The Dow Industrial Average which was negative for much of the day rallied into the close and closed in positive territory up 69.05 points or 0.18% at 38868.03. The index is still below its all-time record close of 40,003 reached on May 17. The NASDAQ index and

Snippet from UBS on what’s ahead this week: CPI, FOMC, and more fresh S&P 500 record highs? On the CPI (due Wednesday, 12 June 2024 at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1230 GMT)): A reading around the previous result (April @ 3.4% y/y) is likely to be enough to ensure investors remain confident in the

Japan’s Nikkei (gated) with the report. In brief from the article, comments from Blackstone President Jonathan Gray: “There are a number of factors that have come together that have really accelerated growth in the Japanese economy as well as investment opportunities”“It’s been the return of inflation to the Japanese economy, the strength in the stock

The EURUSD . Swing area support in the early US session between 1.0721 and 1.07346. The buyers stepped in after the sharp fall on Friday and the continuation of fall in trading today. The subsequent rally has now see the price move up to test retracement targets near 1.0759 if the price is able to

ECB Pres. Lagarde in a newspaper interview says: Rates may not necessarily be on a linear declining path, there might be periods when we holdPossible ECB will hold rates for longer than a single meeting.Keen to see evolution of labor costs, corporate profits.Time dependent guidance on rates not helpful. The ECB cut rates by 25

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Sellers had their shot in the AUDUSD in Asian session, but missed. As a result, sellers turned buyers. The price has rotated in the New York session higher but is approaching a moving average resistance level. Find out all about it in the video above. Be aware. Be prepared This article was written by Greg

Prior month 111.25 (lowest level since October 2021) revised to 110.48Employment trends for May 2024 comes in at 111.44 versus 110.48 revised last month Details: May’s increase in the Employment Trends Index was driven by positive contributions from six of its eight components: Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get”Job OpeningsPercentage

The Apple worldwide developers conference will begin at the top of the hour. The integration of AI is being promised. Will they deliver to the satisfaction of investors? To watch click on the link above. Apple shares are trading at $195.58 down $1.31 or -0.68% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The NY Fed survey showed: 1 year inflation expectations falling to 3.2% from 3.3%3-year inflation expectations remains unchanged at 2.8%5-year inflation expectations rises to 3.0% from 2.8% Other details: Median one-year inflation expectations fell to 3.2% in May from 3.3%, unchanged at 2.8% for three years, and rose to 3.0% from 2.8% for five years.Median

High yield 4.659%WI level at the time of the auction 4.648%Tail 1.1 basis points vs 0.1 6-month averageBid to cover 2.43X vs 2.57X vs 6-month averageDealer 19.9% vs 18.52% 6-month avereageDirects 15.9% vs 18.7% 6 month averageIndirects 64.14% vs 63.2% 6-month average AUCTION GRADE: D The domestic demand was very small. The international tried to

In terms of central bank decisions, there is the Fed and BOJ to work through. And right before the former, there is the US CPI report for markets to scrutinise. After, there is the PPI data and weekly jobless claims. That aside, we also have the UK and Australian labour market reports on the agenda.

From earlier: Far-right movement makes waves in Europe over the weekend That is the main development that is weighing on the euro currency to start the week. In particular, the situation in France and Germany. The former has seen Macron call for a snap election while the latter sees Scholz’s SPD faction suffer a blow

Reuters with the report citing 5 unnamed sources. In brief: Some of the world’s major economies want to finalise a plan ahead of this year’s U.N. climate summit to halt new private sector funding for coal projectsIf approved, the draft proposal by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, would be the first move by

Deriv, a globally recognised online trading company with a 25-year legacy of growth, innovation, and expansion, is pleased to announce its elite sponsorship of iFX EXPO International Conference in June 2024. As an Elite-level sponsor, Deriv will engage with industry leaders, showcase innovative products, and build invaluable partnerships. Aggelos Armenatzoglou, Deriv’s Head of Dealing, commented:

Prior -3.6 That’s the eighth straight month that euro area investor morale sees an improvement. This time, being more than estimated as well. The expectations index also saw a rise, up from 7.8 in May to 10.0 in June. Sentix still singles out Germany as being the one that needs to see more improvement for

Headlines: Far-right movement makes waves in Europe over the weekendItaly-Germany 10-year bond yields spread widens by the most since AprilWas the US NFP a gamechanger?ECB’s Nagel: We must be cautious about future rate movesEurozone June Sentix investor confidence 0.3 vs -1.8 expectedSNB total sight deposits w.e. 7 June CHF 459.8 bn vs CHF 461.9 bn

It’s a big week coming up for oil, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday (FOMC Wednesday too!): The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release their latest monthly oil market reports OPEC on Tuesday June 11IEA on Wednesday June 12 Last week(end), June 2, OPEC said it would

Japan GDP SA Q1 2024 (final) -0.5% q/q prior 0.1% (the prior is Q4 2023) Annualised SA -1.8% q/q prior 0.4% GDP Deflator 3.4% y/y prior 3.9%The GDP Deflator is a measure of inflation Prelim reading is here: Japan’s annualised Q1 GDP -2.0% q/q (vs -1.5% expected) The latest from the Bank of Japan (via

Major US stock indices open lower to start the trading week. Last week the major indices did advance rebounding from the declines in the previous week. Dow Industrial Average average rose 0.29%S&P index rose 1.32%NASDAQ index rose 2.38% The snapshot of the market today shows: Dow Industrial Average average is trading down 80 points or

The economic calendar is light today with US employment trends for May 2 due at 10 AM ET. Last month the index came in at 111.25, which was the lowest level since October 2021. The only other economic event will be the three year note auction at 1 PM ET. The auction is the first

The broader US stock indices are now in positive territory and approaching all-time high closing levels: S&P index is trading at 5349.71 up 2.85 points or 0.08%. The all-time high closing level comes in at 5354.04. NASDAQ index is trading up 41.76 or 0.24% at 17174.84. The all-time high closing level for that index is

European indices are closing lower as yields move higher. Markets are spooked as a result of the election results which shifted more to the right. In the benchmark 10 year sector: Germany 2.676%, +5.2 basis pointsFrance 3.239%, +13.4 basis pointsUK 4.329%, +7.5 basis pointsSpain 3.493%, +9.6 basis pointsItaly 4.08%, was 13.6 basis points Looking at

The USDCAD extended toward the May high at 1.3784. The price of the USDCAD got within about three pips of that high and found willing sellers, the price has rotated modestly to the downside but the inability to move above that level puts a temporary feeling on the pair for now. They move back down

Fundamental Overview Gold had a really bad Friday last week as it suffered one of its worst days in several months. The reason for the selloff was due to two strong catalysts. The first one hit in the European session when we got the headline that China halted its reserve buying. This has been the

In the kickstart FX trading video for June 10, I take a look at 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD is sharply lower as the markets reacted negatively to higher rates and the European elections. France’s Macron called a snap election of the parliament on the results which shifted

The USDCHF is consolidating and trading up and down in a relatively narrow trading range between 0.8954 in 0.8982. At session highs, the price fell short of its 38.2% retracement and 200-hour moving average. Those levels dominate 0.8986 and 0.8983 respectively. On the downside, the low price stalled near a corrective low from Friday’s trade

FP Markets continues to solidify its position as a leading force in the Forex and CFDs industry, having recently been awarded ‘Best Trading Experience – Africa’ at this year’s Financial Achievements in Markets Excellency (FAME) Awards. This follows their ‘Best CFD Broker in Africa’ recognition at the 2023 FAME Awards, cementing the broker’s strategic geographical

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest. The USD is mostly higher with the gains vs the EUR of 0.50% being most of the gain. The USD is lower vs the AUD (by -0.17%). It is less about today and more about the week ahead,

US political news with perhaps some relevance for traders given Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee despite his felony convictions. The US has not had a convicted criminal as President, if Trump wins it’ll be a first for markets. Trump is scheduled to sit for a virtual interview on Monday with a New

This has been the key indicator in measuring risk in the euro area, especially for political matters. It was the same back in 2019 when we had all the risk involving Italian politics. So, this time will be no different. In trying to weigh up the impact on the euro, this will be a good

French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election on Sunday. His decision came after Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party polled very strongly in European elections held on Sudnay. Le Pen made the largest gains in European Parliament electionsGreens and liberals lost ground Macron has announced that he is dissolving the national assemblyHas called

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0775 level. It’s not one that holds any technical significance, so I wouldn’t attach too much importance to the expiry level. The pair opened today with a gap lower below the 1.0800 level, falling

Nvidia will start trading today around 120$ after the 10:1 stock split. Let’s see what is a stock split and how it works. In order to increase the share’s liquidity and make it more affordable, a corporation may split its existing shares into many shares, a move known as a stock split. Because the split

Eurostoxx -1.3%Germany DAX -0.7%France CAC 40 -2.2%UK FTSE -0.7%Spain IBEX -0.8%Italy FTSE MIB -0.8% The political angst from the European parliamentary election over the weekend is weighing on regional stocks today. US futures are also more subdued, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1%. For French stocks, this would mark the biggest daily drop since November

Japan’s Nikkei (gated) cites unnamed sources for its assertion that the Bank of Japan will consider whether to scale back its roughly 6 trillion yen ($38 billion) in monthly Japanese Government Bond purchases. ‘Consider’ whether to scale back is not the same as ‘will’ scale back, of course. I’m not sure that ‘consider’ is that

Goldman Sachs on oil, in brief: Sees a $90/bbl ceiling in their base case of no geopolitical supply hits, and the risks to their $75-$90 range as modestly to the downside for oil pricesWe expect that healthy consumers and solid summer demand for transportation and cooling will push the oil market in a sizable Q3

Domestic sight deposits CHF 450.1 bn vs CHF 452.4 bn prior Swiss sight deposits declined further in the past week but it isn’t anything out of line with what we have seen in the last few months: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD came back with a vengeance last Friday following the strong US NFP report where the data surprised with solid job and wage growth. There were also negatives like the uptick in the unemployment rate, but all in all, we can say that it was a good report. The data triggered a

UK Times (gated) with the report: Volvo cars has started to shift production of Chinese-made electric vehicles to Belgium in the expectation that the EU will drive ahead with a crackdown on Beijing-subsidised imports Volvo is majority-owned by China’s Geelymoving production of Volvo’s EX30 and EX90 models from China to Belgium to avoid EU tariffs

This week presents a relatively light calendar in terms of economic events, which is typical for the period following the NFP report. However, there are some very significant events to watch for. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate. These figures will provide

Rates are on a mountain ridge, not a peakWe still have to find the right point for a further descentWe must remain cautiousUncertainty about future economic and price trend remains high The language continues to suggest that they will be pausing in July, as per what is expected at the moment. This article was written

Weekend news reports say that U.S. officials expect the Group of Seven (G7) to warn smaller Chinese banks to stop assisting Russia in evading Western sanctions. Reuters cite two people familiar with the matter. G7 leaders are meeting on June 13-15 in Italy. Reuters report is here for more The G7 are Canada France, Germany,

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week, on Tuesday and Wednesday. Statement due at 2pm US Eastern time, with Powell’s press conference following a half hour later: Pretty much the unanimous expectations out there is for no rate cut. As for the dot plot, consensus is it’ll show two rate cuts

The US NFP on Friday surprised the markets as the data came out much better than expected. I would argue that the part that weighed the most was the strong average hourly earnings figures. Now, I’m not an economist, so I try to look at it from a market participant’s perspective gathering analyses from the

Via a note from JP Morgan chief US economist Michael Feroli on Friday: On the ‘dot plot: he expects the Fed to project a median of two interest rate cuts to come in 2024 The dots showed three in their most recent update, at the March meeting. At Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s press conference expects:

This is weighing on the euro: EU politics – French President Macron has called a snap election. EUR/USD a touch lower. Its not as if its collapsing, its off 20 points or so from late Friday, circa 1.0775 or so. As I say EVERY SINGLE WEEK: As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity

European political analysts’ assessment of the European Union elections, in a nutshell: mainstream parties looked set to keep a majority in the EU parliamentbut far-right parties are on course to boost presence There has been much hand wringing over high-profile gains by far-right parties, none more so than Macron: EU politics – French President Macron

German DAX futures -0.3%UK FTSE futures -0.6% That alongside the more sluggish end to last week seen in Wall Street. In Europe, this is the main story over the weekend. S&P 500 futures are also marginally lower by 0.1%, in keeping with the more subdued mood to start the week. This article was written by

The French president decided to call a snap election in a last ditch effort to try and salvage the situation. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally faction looks set to win 33% of the vote – more than doubling Macron’s 15%. Without a majority, Macron would be in a tough spot in trying to push forward

There’s absolutely nothing on the agenda today, so the markets will be mostly dominated by flows set in motion by the hot US NFP report last Friday and the European elections over the weekend. We have a negative risk sentiment as the markets trade more cautiously into the US CPI and FOMC decision on Wednesday.

ICYMI: JP Morgan shifted their forecast for the first FOMC rate cut from July to NovemberGoldman Sachs preview the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this week – no cut, but …Volvo shifting production of Chinese-made electric vehicles to Europe, to avoid tariffsIt’s a big week coming up for oil, we hear again from OPEC plus

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. It’ll be ‘thinner for longer’ here this morning with Australian markets closed for a holiday. Indicative rates: EUR/USD 1.0790 … A touch

I posted earlier on Goldman Sachs’ Fed preview: Goldman Sachs preview the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this week – no cut, but … ps. The ‘but’ is GS expect a rate cut from the FOMC in September and then again in December with a barrage of more to follow in 2025 and 2026. As

PIMCO says the next moves from the ECB will be decided by data flow over the coming months. In brief: we envision the ECB to keep cutting rates at staff projection meetings market pricing seems reasonable and broadly in line with our long-held baseline of three cuts for this year we expect additional cuts in

Q1 GDP data from Japan confirmed the enormous contraction: Japan’s Q1 GDP (revised) -1.8% (annualized) – massive economic slump Almost as if in response the draft of the Jap[anese government’s annual economic blueprint has once again been sighted by Reuters. This happened last week too: Japan’s government to warn of weak yen This time around:

more to come The Wall Street Journal report on a major highway linking Idaho to Jackson, Wyo., near Grand Teton National Park, closed indefinitely, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is the location of the annual Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual symposium. This seminar is a big deal, attracting leading central bankers from across the globe. Thankfully there

Markets in Hong Kong, Australia and China are closed for holidays today, Monday, 10 June 2024. This will thin out liquidity during the Asian timezone a little. New Zealand, Japan, Singapore all remain open. The holidays are for Tuen Ng Festival (Dragon Boat Festival) and the King’s Birthday. I’ll leave you to figure out who

Euro/USD technical analysis: Video for currency investors and traders Potential Bull Flag Formation 🏳️ Second touch point on June 3rd 📅Potential breakout identified but not confirmed yet 🚩 Job Report Impact 📉 Tight stop hit after the job report release on Friday 📊Importance of maintaining stops due to new market events 🛑 Daily Time Frame

Before we look at the data agenda, ICYMI this is weighing on EUR early: EU politics – French President Macron has called a snap election. EUR/USD a touch lower.Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 10 June 2024 Its not the end of the world for the EUR, but it’s a few points

Crude oil is closing near unchanged on the day. The settlement price is $75.53. That’s down to cents or -0.03%. For the week, the price is down -$0.38 or -0.50%. The prices also settling below its 200 week moving average for the first time since January 2021. That 200 week moving average comes in at

Major indices close lower on the day/higher for the weekCrude oil settles at $75.53US consumer credit for April rises by $6.40B versus $11.0B increase estimateWith the Bank of Canada, ECB and jobs in the rear view mirror, the Fed is aheadECB Pres. Lagarde: Still a long way to go until inflation is defeatedBaker Hughes oil

The 50-200 Moving Average Crossover is an easy concept to build a trading strategy around because the inputs are simple and the potential optimizations are straightforward. So it’s perfect if you’re just getting started with trading strategy development. Many trading websites will give you what they say is the “best” 50-200 crossover strategy. Interestingly, most

The major US stock indices are closing lower on the day, but higher for the week. This week, both the S&P and NASDAQ indices traded to the new all-time high levels. The S&P index reached a site today of 5375.08. That is its new all-time record high. The gains could not be maintained and the

UPCOMING EVENTS: Tuesday: UK Labour Market report, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.Wednesday: Japan PPI, China CPI, UK GDP, US CPI, FOMC Policy Decision.Thursday: Australia Labour Market report, Swiss PPI, Eurozone Industrial Production, US PPI, US Jobless Claims.Friday: New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, BoJ Policy Decision, US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Tuesday The UK unemployment

This week the Bank of Canada and the ECB cut rates each by 25 basis points. For each, it was the central banks initial cut. The Bank of Canada announced their interest rate decision on Wednesday. The central bank cut from what is restrictive policy, but acknowledge further cuts are dependent on upcoming data. BANK

The AUD is one of the weakets of the major currencies (along with the NZD). Commodities are sharply lower on the back of the higher dollar/higher rates/a more stubborn Fed. Technically, the price has moved lower to test a cluster of support including the 38.2% retracement at 0.6579, a swing area between 0.6579 to 0.6585.

The PBOC is China’s central bank and the biggest buyer of gold in the world. Data hit on Friday that the Bank bought zero gold in May: ForexLive European FX news wrap: ECB tries to justify rate cut, gold dips on China In May 2024 gold prices hit a record high, and it looks like

Path to 2% inflation won’t be entirely smooth.Made major progress, but inflation fight is not overRates to remain restrictive for as long as necessary.ECB still needs vigilance or commitment, perseverance.Still a long way to go until inflation defeated. The ECB cut rates yesterday, with one dissenter, but since then there seems to be more regret

Backtesting is the best way to verify that a trading strategy has an edge and optimize that strategy to meet your goals. Despite its importance, backtesting does have its limitations. The primary constraints of manual backtesting are that it requires discretionary input from the trader and is not highly scalable. Automated backtesting is limited by

In trading, backtesting and forward testing are essential methods for evaluating the potential success of trading strategies. Backtesting allows traders to assess how a strategy would have performed in the past by simulating trades with historical data. Unlike backtesting, forward testing involves trading a strategy in real-time with live data in a demo account, without

OK I tried it.. and it is garbage. Over and out…. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

? When you buy something through one of the links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Are you tired of losing money on trading robots that promise you profits, but never deliver? Look no further than this article, where I will share the truth about which trading bots actually work and how

Robert Holzmann is Governor of Austria’s central bank and a European Central Bank Governing Council member, billed by many pundits as the A1 hawk at the table. Holzmann spoke in a radio interview on Saturday with public broadcaster ORF (Österreichischer Rundfunk, ‘Austrian Broadcasting’). He said further European Central Bank rate cuts in the abscence of

Baker Hughes rig count for the week shows: Oil rigs -4 to 496Gas rigs -2 to 98Total rigs -6 to 594 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

In a previous article, I showed you how to create a fully automated 50-200 moving average crossover trading strategy, without coding. Now I’m going to show you the backtesting results of that strategy for every market that I’ve tested. I’ll show you both the good and bad. You have to backtest this strategy yourself to

Prior month $6.27 billion revised down to $-1.10 billionConsumer credit $6.4 billion vs $11.0 billion estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Backtesting is the systematic process of finding out if a trading strategy has worked in the past and therefore will be very likely to work in the future.  This is the most important step that a trader can go through to prove that their trading strategy actually works. Yet, so many aspiring traders miss this

In this tutorial, I’ll show you how I backtest multiple timeframes at the same time. You’ll learn how to setup multiple charts and have them all run at the same speed while you backtest. This is easy to do. There are many software solutions that can do it, but it may not be obvious how

Today, we have Oliver Kell on the show. What’s interesting about Oliver is he took part in the US investing championship in 2020—and came in first place! Achieving a staggering return of 941.1%! That’s like having $10,000 in your account in January and seeing it become $100k in December. The post The Stock Trader Who

Thank you for your interest!You’ll be the first to know when enrollment for the Forex Trading Income (FTFI) is open. The post Thank You for Signing Up appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Today we have Jack Schwager on the show! I believe he needs no introduction but I’ll do it anyway…He is the author of the Market Wizards book series and has inspired a generation of traders (me included). The post Market Wizards: Behind The Scenes (With Jack Schwager) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

When you’re testing trading strategies to gauge their profit potential, backtesting is a crucial step. But it’s not enough to just stop at the total return of a strategy in backtesting. There are many metrics that should be studied to assess the viability of a strategy, and if it will meet your goals. A Monte

In my experience, backtesting a trading strategy is an essential step before deploying it in the market. It allows me to assess how the strategy would have performed in the past, giving me a clearer idea of its potential success in the future. Manual backtesting is great, but automated backtesting speeds up the process considerably.

Easy Forex Builder (EFB) is a no-code, online tool for building automated Forex trading strategies. Once a strategy is built in this software, it can be exported to MetaTrader or Forex Tester for backtesting or even live trading. I reviewed EFB when it first came out and I was not impressed. It was not able

Discover the ins and outs of forex lot size to trade with confidence and precision in the forex markets, never doubting your decisions again The post The Essential Guide To Forex Lot Size appeared first on TradingwithRayner.